Effects Of Fiscal Policy Shocks Research Articles

Inference for Impulse Responses Under Model Uncertainty

In many macroeconomic applications, impulse responses and their (bootstrap) confidence intervals are constructed by estimating a VAR model in levels - thus ignoring uncertainty regarding the true (unknown) cointegration rank. While it is well known that using a wrong cointegration rank leads to invalid (bootstrap) inference, we demonstrate that even if the rank is consistently estimated, ignoring uncertainty regarding the true rank can make inference highly unreliable for sample sizes encountered in macroeconomic applications. We investigate the effects of rank uncertainty in a simulation study, comparing several methods designed for handling model uncertainty. We propose a new method - Weighted Inference by Model Plausibility (WIMP) - that takes rank uncertainty into account in a fully data-driven way and outperforms all other methods considered in the simulation study. The WIMP method is shown to deliver intervals that are robust to rank uncertainty, yet allow for meaningful inference, approaching fixed rank intervals when evidence for a particular rank is strong. We study the potential ramifications of rank uncertainty on applied macroeconomic analysis by re-assessing the effects of fiscal policy shocks based on a variety of identification schemes that have been considered in the literature. We demonstrate how sensitive the results are to the treatment of the cointegration rank, and show how formally accounting for rank uncertainty can affect the conclusions.

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Fiscal multipliers in a structural VEC model with mixed normal errors

This paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy shocks on GDP in the United States with a vector error correction (VEC) model in which shocks are identified by exploiting the non-normal distribution of the model residuals. Unlike previous research, the model used here takes into account cointegation between the variables, and applies a data driven method to identify fiscal policy shocks. The approach also allows statistical testing of previous identification strategies, which may help discriminate between them and hence also explain differences between various fiscal multiplier estimates. Our results show that a deficit financed government spending shock has a weak negative effect on output, whereas a tax increase to finance government spending has a positive impact on GDP.

Fiscal Policy Shocks and Private Consumption in Nigeria: Blanchard-Perotti (2002) Approach

This paper examines the effects of fiscal policy shocks on private consumption in Nigeria. Albeit, there is a considerable number of works examining the effects of fiscal policy shocks on private consumption globally but in Nigeria, no study has used the structural VAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002) as used in this paper. This approach relies on institutional information about the tax and transfer systems and the timing of tax collection to identify the automatic response of taxes and spending to private consumption as well as to infer fiscal shocks. The key result of this paper is that positive government spending shocks in Nigeria have an instantaneous negative effect on private consumption. The effect becomes significant in the period following the shock. Also, positive tax shocks have a negative effect on private consumption in the period of a shock and the effect becomes statistically insignificant afterwards. On this premises, one-off changes in government spending and taxes in Nigeria are long-lived and short-lived respectively. Thus, the government expenditure changes can be used to support private consumption in the long-run while that of taxes can only be used to support private consumption for a short period.

Fiscal Policy Shocks and Private Consumption in Nigeria: Blanchard-Perotti (2002) Approach

This paper examines the effects of fiscal policy shocks on private consumption in Nigeria. Albeit, there is a considerable number of works examining the effects of fiscal policy shocks on private consumption globally but in Nigeria, no study has used the structural VAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002) as used in this paper. This approach relies on institutional information about the tax and transfer systems and the timing of tax collection to identify the automatic response of taxes and spending to private consumption as well as to infer fiscal shocks. The key result of this paper is that positive government spending shocks in Nigeria have an instantaneous negative effect on private consumption. The effect becomes significant in the period following the shock. Also, positive tax shocks have a negative effect on private consumption in the period of a shock and the effect becomes statistically insignificant afterwards. On this premises, one-off changes in government spending and taxes in Nigeria are long-lived and short-lived respectively. Thus, the government expenditure changes can be used to support private consumption in the long-run while that of taxes can only be used to support private consumption for a short period.

The Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Romania. A SVAR Approach

Abstract There has always been an interest in analyzing the effects of fiscal policy on the main macroeconomic variables such as GDP, inflation, interest rate, employment, but compared with the empirical literature on the effects of monetary policy on economic activity, fiscal policy has received less attention. With the recent economic recession fiscal policy was regarded with more interest since it was expected to be effective in economic recovery. An approach commonly used to estimate the effects of fiscal policy shocks on economic activity is based on vector autoregressive (VAR) models with different scheme of identification of the shocks. This paper analyzes the effects of a government expenditure shock and tax revenue shock on economic activity by applying a VAR methodology to Romanian data. For identification of fiscal policy shocks I first used a recursive approach (Cholesky decomposition) and second I apply the methodology proposed by Perotti (2002), based on Blanchard and Perotti (1999). The results obtained are consistent with other studies on emergent economies. The impact of fiscal shocks on macroeconomic variable is reduced and the fiscal multipliers are very small.

Measuring the effects of fiscal policy

Measuring the effects of discretionary fiscal policy is both difficult and controversial, as some explicit or implicit identifying assumptions need to be made to isolate exogenous and unanticipated changes in taxes and government spending. Studies based on structural vector autoregressions typically achieve identification by restricting the contemporaneous interaction of fiscal and non-fiscal variables in a rather arbitrary way. In this paper, we relax those restrictions and identify fiscal policy shocks by exploiting the conditional heteroscedasticity of the structural disturbances. We use this methodology to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks in the U.S. before and after 1979. Our results show substantive differences in the economy׳s response to government spending and tax shocks across the two periods. Importantly, we find that increases in public spending are, in general, more effective than tax cuts in stimulating economic activity. A key contribution of this study is to provide a formal test of the identifying restrictions commonly used in the literature.

Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States

AbstractWe identify fiscal policy shocks in the EU new member states using four different methods. We use panel data techniques to estimate the output response to these shocks. We find that investment and export growth increase after fiscal consolidation and decelerate after fiscal stimulus when the shocks are expenditure‐based. In contrast, private consumption does not respond to fiscal policy shocks. Expenditure‐based fiscal consolidations reduce wages, supporting the view that fiscal consolidation of such composition enhances the competitiveness and profitability of domestic enterprises. In contrast, we do not find evidence of fiscal shocks affecting households' confidence.

Fiscal policy, net exports, and the sectoral composition of output in Greece

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy shocks on net export performance and the sectoral composition of output in Greece in the post 2000 period. A reduction in government spending (or tax hike) exerts a negative response on output which reduces import demand. A cut back in government spending boosts exports through the labor cost competitiveness channel further improving net exports. Tax hikes in particular on social security contributions and other indirect taxes reduce export performance. Although real aggregate output declines following a cut in government spending, the tradable sector output responds positively, further improving net exports.

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Even if fiscal policy measures of countries show similarities, these measures have an important role in depth of recession and depression, reestablishment of market confidence and determination of the duration of economic recovery together with stability and elasticity of domestic financial and economic system. In the study, the effects of fiscal policies, which were implemented in Turkey during global crisis, on growth trend of the country in the period of crisis were examined. The effects of fiscal policy shocks on national income were examined through structural VAR system by using the data of the period of 2006-2012 and it was seen that the effects of net tax income and public expenditures in the model on growth was positive. On the basis of empirical findings of the study, it can be said that fiscal policies which were implemented in Turkey during last global crisis partially have growth-increasing effect.

Fiscal Policy, Net Exports, and the Sectoral Composition of Output in Greece

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy shocks on net export performance and the sectoral composition of output in Greece in the post 2000 period. A reduction in government spending (or a tax hike) exerts a negative response on output which reduces import demand. A cut back in government spending boosts exports through the labour cost competitiveness channel further improving net exports. Tax hikes in particular on social security contributions and other indirect taxes reduce export performance. Although real aggregate output declines following a cut in government spending, the tradable sector output responds positively, further improving net exports.

Fiscal shocks and the real exchange rate: evidence from an outpost of textbook open-economy macroeconomics

Recent empirical research into the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks has generated a ‘puzzle’. Both Keynesian and Real Business Cycle models predict that a fiscal expansion will lead to a real exchange rate appreciation. However, in almost all the individual countries that have been studied, positive shocks to government spending cause the real exchange rate to depreciate. Recent theoretical work suggests that this unexpected result might reflect incomplete international financial market integration. The country where the incomplete markets assumption is least plausible is New Zealand, because of its integration into the Australian financial system. We show that in New Zealand there is no puzzle, and the standard textbook result still holds. Our counter-factual results are consistent with the argument that the puzzle is to be explained by an absence of complete international financial market integration in most parts of the world.

Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Policy Shocks and Current Account Dynamics in Nigeria

The study examines the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the current account as well as the dynamic interactions among fiscal policy shocks and current account with the other macroeconomic variables: real output, real interest rate and exchange rate for Nigeria over the periods 1980:1-2010:4. The identification of fiscal policy shocks is achieved via structural VAR approach proposed by Blanchard-Perotti (2002). The results of this study indicate that the expansionary fiscal policy shock has a positive effect on output, exchange rate and negative impacts on current account balance and interest rate. By implication, this study suggests that fiscal policy can stimulate economic activity through expenditure expansions at a cost of lower interest rate and exchange rate appreciation in the medium term and a sustained current account balance will enhance output via fiscal consolidation.

Analysing the effects of fiscal policy shocks in the South African economy

This paper is the first one to analyse the effect of aggregate government spending and taxes on output for South Africa using three types of a calibrated DSGE model and more data driven models such as a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) and a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) to capture possible asymmetries and time variation of fiscal impulses. The impulse responses indicate first, that increases in government expenditure have a positive impact, albeit (at times) less than unity, on GDP in the short run; second, over the long run, the impact of government expenditure on GDP is insignificant; and third, increases in taxes decrease GDP over the short run, while having negligible effects over longer horizons.

Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Shocks Upon Diverse Macroeconomic Variables: A Structural VAR Analysis for Argentina

The paper studies the dynamic effects of fiscal policy shocks upon Argentine macroeconomic variables such as the gross domestic product, the inflation rate and the level of unemployment; a structural Vector Autoregression model is resorted to in order to estimate the impulse response functions; the econometric analysis is carried out for the period 1984-2005 (second quarter) and quarterly logarithmic real variables are used for the VAR´s specification. Point estimation of impulse response functions indicate both a relatively low statistical significance of fiscal shocks upon macroeconomic variables and a short-lived impact of innovations while at the same time cast doubts upon some traditionally accepted Keynesian macroeconomic policy prescriptions.

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Introduction

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Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: The Role of Sovereign Default Risk

Recent events have highlighted the potential importance of nonlinear efiects of flscal variables (notably debt and deflcits) on interest rates: While in times when government solvency is not a concern the standard crowding-out efiects are of moderate magnitude, in times when default risk becomes an issue the interest rate efiects can become very large. This paper provides new evidence on the magnitude of these efiects. For the case when default risk is not a concern, it uses an arbitrage-free term structure model to estimate the dynamic efiects of flscal policy shocks on interest rates along the entire maturity spectrum. For the case when default risk becomes a concern (thereby violating a central assumption of the term structure model), I present evidence based on EMU government bond spread regressions on time-varying efiects of national flscal policies on spreads as well as the time-varying sensitivity of yield spreads to international risk aversion as a function of the state of flscal policy. JEL classiflcation: E6, H6.

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity Over the Business Cycle - Evidence from a Threshold VAR Analysis

Does the state of the business cycle matter for the effects of fiscal policy shocks on GDP? This study analyses quarterly German data from 1976 to 2009 in a threshold SVAR, expanding the SVAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). In a linear benchmark SVAR, the analysis finds that hiking spending yields a short-term fiscal multiplier of around 0.70, while the fiscal multiplier resulting from an increase in taxes and social security contributions is -0.66. In addition, the threshold model derives fundamentally new insights on the effects of shocks, depending on when in the business cycle they occur, their size and their direction. Most importantly, fiscal spending multipliers are much larger in times of a negative output gap but have only a very limited effect in times of a positive output gap. Discretionary revenue policies, on the other hand, have a generally more limited impact. Our findings have important implications for the optimal fiscal policy mix over different stages of the business cycle. Various robustness checks, including a different threshold specification, do not influence these implications substantially.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis

Summary We investigate the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the German economy extending the SVAR approach of Blanchard and Perotti (2002). Direct government expenditure shocks are found to increase output and private consumption on impact. The output multiplier is smaller than one and is falling rather quickly reaching zero after 3 years. Government operating expenditure has size able positive effects on output, in the long run in particular due to public capital formation. Compensation of public employees is not effective in stimulating the economy.Government net revenue shocks do not affect output significantly. Indirect taxes have little effects, while direct taxes lower output significantly. Overall, the effects of fiscal policy are short-lived with the exception of public investment increases.