Effects Of Extreme Weather Events Research Articles

The effect of extreme weather events on child nutrition and health

This study traces the causal effects of extreme weather events on nutritional and health outcomes among rural children in Uganda using four waves of individual child survey data (2009–2014). A simultaneous regression model was applied for causal inference while also accounting for households’ adaptive responses. The study finds the evidence of a significant negative relationship between extreme weather events and availability of calories and nutrients for children. In particular, droughts reduced calorie, protein and zinc supply, and overall diet diversity by 67%, 37%, 28% and 30%, respectively. We further traced the effects of this reduced calorie and nutrient availability on child health indicators. A 10% decrease in zinc supply decreased height-for-age z-scores (HAZ) by around 0.139 - 0.164 standard deviations (SD), and increased probability of stunting ranging from 3.1 to 3.5 percentage points. Both boys and girls HAZ and stunting rates were sensitive to nutrient inadequacies. Different coping and adaptation strategies significantly influenced rural households’ ability to safeguard children’s nutrition and health against the effects of extreme weather. The findings of this study provide specific insights for building ex-ante resilience against extreme weather events, particularly when compared to ex-post, unsustainable, and often costlier relief actions.

Substantial short- and long-term health effect due to PM2.5 and the constituents even under future emission reductions in China

Heavy pollution events of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) frequently occur in China, seriously affecting the human health. However, how meteorological factors and anthropogenic emissions affect PM2.5 and the major constituents, as well as the subsequent health effect, remains unclear. Here, based on regional climate and air quality models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), the PM2.5 and major constituents in China at present and mid-century under the carbon neutral scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)1–2.6 are simulated. Due to anthropogenic emission reduction, concentrations of PM2.5 and the constituents decrease substantially in SSP1–2.6. The long-term exposure premature deaths at present are 2.23 million per year in mainland China, which is projected to increase by 76 % under SSP1–2.6 despite emission reduction, primarily attributable to aging which strikingly offsets the effect of air quality improvement. The number of annual premature deaths resulting from short-term exposure is 228,104 in mainland China at present, which is projected to decrease in the future. Using North China Plain as an example, we identify that among the major constituents of PM2.5, organic carbon leads to the most short-term exposure deaths considering the largest exposure-response coefficient. Regarding the abnormally meteorological conditions, we find, relative to low relative humidity (RH) and non-stagnation, the compound events, defined as concurrence of high RH and atmospheric stagnation, exhibit an amplified role inducing larger premature deaths compared to the additive effect of the individual event of high RH and atmospheric stagnation. This nonlinear effect occurs at both present and future, but diminished in future due to emission reductions. Our study highlights the importance of considering both the long- and short-term premature deaths associated with PM2.5 and the constituents, as well as the critical effect of extreme weather events.

The impact of extreme weather events on green innovation: Which ones bring to the most harm?

This research investigates the effect of extreme weather events on green innovation by using unbalanced panel data covering 117 countries from 1971 to 2018 and documents strong evidence that extreme weather has a significantly negative impact on green innovation. We also find among the four extreme weather events such as droughts, extreme temperature, floods, and storms that floods have the most prominent adverse impact on green innovation. Furthermore, the significantly negative effect of extreme weather is manifested in countries with a high level of corruption and low level of trade openness, but not in the countries with a low level of corruption and a high level of trade openness. Lastly, we show that extreme weather events have an adverse impact on green innovation by decreasing economic growth level, hindering financial development, widening income inequality, damaging the accumulation of human capital, and increasing the political risk.

Using UAS-Aided Photogrammetry to Monitor and Quantify the Geomorphic Effects of Extreme Weather Events in Tectonically Active Mass Waste-Prone Areas: The Case of Medicane Ianos

Extreme weather events can trigger various hydrogeomorphic phenomena and processes including slope failures. These shallow instabilities are difficult to monitor and measure due to the spatial and temporal scales in which they occur. New technologies such as unmanned aerial systems (UAS), photogrammetry and the structure-from-motion (SfM) technique have recently demonstrated capabilities useful in performing accurate terrain observations that have the potential to provide insights into these geomorphic processes. This study explores the use of UAS-aided photogrammetry and change detection, using specialized techniques such as the digital elevation model (DEM) of differences (DoD) and cloud-to-cloud distance (C2C) to monitor and quantify geomorphic changes before and after an extreme medicane event in Myrtos, a highly visited touristic site on Cephalonia Island, Greece. The application demonstrates that the combination of UAS with photogrammetry allows accurate delineation of instabilities, volumetric estimates of morphometric changes, insights into erosion and deposition processes and the delineation of higher-risk areas in a rapid, safe and practical way. Overall, the study illustrates that the combination of tools facilitates continuous monitoring and provides key insights into geomorphic processes that are otherwise difficult to observe. Through this deeper understanding, this approach can be a stepping stone to risk management of this type of highly-visited sites, which in turn is a key ingredient to sustainable development in high-risk areas.

Impacts of extreme weather events on terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling: A global meta-analysis

Some weather events like drought, increased precipitation, and warming exert substantial impact on the terrestrial C and N cycling. However, it remains largely unclear about the effect of extreme weather events (extreme drought, heavy rainfall, extreme heat, and extreme cold) on terrestrial C and N cycling. This study aims to analyze the responses of pools and fluxes of C and N in plants, soil, and microbes to extreme weather events by conducting a global meta-analysis of 656 pairwise observations. Results showed that extreme weather events (extreme drought, heavy rainfall, and extreme heat) decreased plant biomass and C flux, and extreme drought and heavy rainfall decreased the plant N pool and soil N flux. These results suggest that extreme weather events weaken the C and N cycling process in terrestrial ecosystems. However, this study did not determine the impact of extreme cold on ecosystem C and N cycling. Additional field experiments are needed to reveal the effects of extreme cold on global C and N cycling patterns.

Guiding Environmental Messaging by Quantifying the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Public Discourse Surrounding Anthropogenic Climate Change

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change promises to bring existential changes to human society in the coming years. One such example of these changes is the increasing frequency of extreme weather capable of causing significant damage. Despite this, many Americans are acutely unaware of the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events, perhaps because of a lack of direct messaging about it. This study analyzed the effects of natural disasters on climate change discussion sentiment and volume through news media and Twitter posts. The study hypothesized that specific major natural disasters would lead to increases in the number of climate change–related Twitter posts and news articles, as well as more positive climate sentiment, indicative of belief in the severity of global warming. Through an analysis of almost 35 million climate change–related tweets and 300 000+ news articles, along with the collection of over 130 million natural-disaster-related tweets published in the United States between 2010 and 2020, media volume rose an average of 10% around specific extreme weather events, corroborating the first aspect of the hypothesis. The ratio of positive to negative sentiment tweets, however, decreased, suggesting the tendency of extreme weather to elicit more response from climate change deniers than supporters. Thus, increased climate change discussion around major natural disasters represents a missed opportunity for continuing to drive forward climate change messaging and awareness in the United States. Significance Statement Extreme weather events threaten Americans’ lives and livelihoods. In turn, anthropogenic climate change has been shown to amplify the frequency and intensity of these weather events, creating uncertainty for communities across the country. Despite the proven connection between climate change and natural disasters, public messaging often fails to leverage anxiety over extreme weather to drive support for environmental action. This study sought to quantify the media relationships of climate change and natural disasters to inform awareness strategies.

Understanding farmers’ perception of extreme weather events and adaptive measures

Extreme weather events have cost lives and financial losses across the United States. Moreover, they are expected to increase in frequency, and this will exacerbate their impact on vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. But how farmers could adapt to extreme weather events by adopting different conservation practices has received slight attention in the literature. This study examines how farmers' perceptions of drought and flooding influence their decisions to implement conservation practices in their conventional crop fields. Out of the 350 farmer responses we received, fewer than half indicated a likelihood to adopt no-tillage/reduced tillage (43%), cover crops (40%), crop diversification (37%), and integrated crop-livestock grazing (29%). Using this data and a multivariate probit modeling framework, we show that farmers’ decisions can be partly explained by their perception of drought but not by their perception of flooding. Specifically, the perceived number of drought years significantly increases the likelihood of adopting no-tillage/reduced tillage and diversified cropping in the future. However, the number of drought years is not significantly associated with the use of cover crops and integrated crop-livestock grazing. These results suggest that the effects of extreme weather events on adoption of conservation practices as adaptive measures vary across different practices. Therefore, adaptation policies that make use of conservation practices must be tailored to farmers’ needs and priorities to be effective.

Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities.

One of the primary ways in which climate change will impact coastal freshwater wetlands is through changes in the frequency, intensity, timing and distribution of extreme weather events. Disentangling the direct and indirect mechanisms of population- and community-level responses to extreme events is vital to predicting how species composition of coastal wetlands will change under future conditions. We extended static structural equation modelling approaches to incorporate system dynamics in a multi-year multispecies occupancy model to quantify the effects of extreme weather events on a coastal freshwater wetland system. We used data from an 8-year study (2009-2016) on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge in Florida, USA, to quantify species-specific and community-level changes in amphibian and fish occupancy associated with two flooding events in 2012 and 2013. We examine how physical changes to the landscape, including potential changes in salinity and increased wetland connectivity, may have contributed to or exacerbated the effects of these extreme weather events on the biota of isolated coastal wetlands. We provide evidence that the primary effects of flooding on the amphibian community were through indirect mechanisms via changes in the composition of the sympatric fish community that may have had lethal (i.e. through direct predation) or non-lethal (i.e. through direct or indirect competitive interactions) effects. In addition, we have shown that amphibian species differed in their sensitivity to direct flooding effects and indirect changes in the fish community and wetland-specific conductance, which led to variable responses across the community. These effects led to the overall decline in amphibian species richness from 2009 to 2016, suggesting that wetland-breeding amphibian communities on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge may not be resilient to predicted changes in coastal disturbance regimes because of climate change. Understanding both direct and indirect effects, as well as species interactions, is important for predicting the effects of a changing climate on individual species, communities and ecosystems.

Primary care disaster management for extreme weather events, South Africa

Primary health care facilities are at the forefront of helping communities affected by natural disasters. However, such facilities are also vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather events triggered by climate change. The April 2022 floods in the south-eastern region of South Africa claimed the lives of over 400 people, the loss of 16 000 houses and resulted in major damage to infrastructure. Most damage was localised in the eThekwini area in KwaZulu-Natal, which is the country's third most populous city. This report describes the impact of the floods on primary health care facilities in eThekwini and their preparedness for extreme weather events.Contribution: Extreme weather events induced by climate change highlight the need for primary health care facilities to develop disaster management strategies that consider climate change.

Extreme weather conditions influence the frequency of epistaxis-related emergency room visits.

Climate change has been associated with an increase in extreme weather conditions. The aim of this study was to identify environmental factors and the effect of extreme weather events (95th percentile) on the risk for epistaxis-related emergency room visits (EV). A total of 2179 epistaxis-related EVs were identified between 2015 and 2018. A distributed lag non-linear model was fitted to investigate the relationship between extreme weather conditions and the total number of epistaxis-related EVs per day. Cumulative relative risk (cRR) is defined as the cumulated daily risk of EV for epistaxis within a stated period after an extreme weather condition compared to the risk of EV at the median value of that weather condition. At a mean daily temperature of 27°C (P95), cRR for epistaxis-related EV was 2.00. At a relative humidity of 39% (P5), cRR was highest on day 3 at 1.59, while extremely high humidity (92%, P99) led to a decreased cRR of 0.7 on day 1. Intense precipitation of 24mm (P99) reduced the cRR on day 3 to 0.38. For prolonged extreme conditions over three days, extremely low wind speed, as well as both high and low atmospheric pressure events, diminished cRR. Extreme temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation, as well as extended periods of extreme wind speeds and atmospheric pressure, significantly impact cRR for epistaxis-related EVs.

Extreme weather events and pro-environmental behavior: evidence from a climate change vulnerable country

ABSTRACT Experiencing an extreme weather event and its consequences might make the risks associated with climate change more tangible, easier to evaluate, and more salient. Consequently, those experiences might translate into the adoption of pro-environmental behaviours. Understanding this relationship is fundamental for the successful design of policies aimed towards promoting the adoption of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. This work contributes to the literature by showing that there is in fact a positive relation between experiencing an extreme weather event and willingness to take pro-environmental actions. The prevailing available evidence is for developed countries. Our empirical analysis is based on a nationally representative sample of households from Mexico, a developing country that is highly vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather events.

Editorial: Special Issue on Artificial Intelligence for Sustainability

Sustainability is the challenge of our time. It is an exciting and necessary problem to be solved that requires an all- hands-on-deck attitude. Given the demonstrated capabilities developed in Artificial Intelligence (AI) during the last decades, the techniques it provides may ease the ancestral problems in Latin America and the Caribbeans (LAC) related to its development. Current climatological models predict that given its relatively little contribution to the emission of greenhouse gases, LAC will suffer a disproportionate effect of extreme weather events (EWEs) in the form of droughts, forest fires, and flooding. These events could significantly alter the life of about 660 million LACs inhabitants, mak- ing it harder to thrive in societies that have historically demonstrated low fluidity, inequality, and gender and family- based violence. Furthermore, EWEs have the potential to be catastrophic for the biodiversity of LAC, which holds about 60% of the terrestrial life.

Floodwater Ghosts as Social Criticism: A horror film and Tropical Storm Ondoy

Typhoon Ketsana, known in the Philippines as Tropical Storm Ondoy, hit the nation’s capital more than a decade ago. Metro Manila and its neighbouring rural areas were submerged in floodwaters up to 20 metres high resulting in 921 fatalities and $1.15 billion in damages. Most of those who survived the extreme weather event have various Ondoy stories to tell. In 2011 the popular Philippine horror anthology film series Shake, Rattle & Roll portrayed Ondoy victims as floodwater ghosts in a narrative included in instalment 13, in an episode entitled Rain, Rain, Go Away (RRGA). The floodwater ghosts are chilling reminders of various intersecting issues plaguing the country such as child labour, poor infrastructure, graft and corruption, the lack of proper weather forecasting techniques and equipment, and many others. The ghosts also represent how the most vulnerable sectors suffer from such water disasters, and invite possible discourses on actions that need to be taken against the detrimental effects of extreme weather events on the Philippine islands.

Using the Generalized Synthetic Control Method to Estimate the Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Population Health.

Traditional epidemiologic approaches such as time-series or case-crossover designs are often used to estimate the effects of extreme weather events but can be limited by unmeasured confounding. Quasi-experimental methods are a family of methods that leverage natural experiments to adjust for unmeasured confounding indirectly. The recently developed generalized synthetic control method that exploits the timing of an exposure is well suited to estimate the impact of acute environmental events on health outcomes. To demonstrate how this method can be used to study extreme weather events, we examined the impact of the 20-26 October 2007 Southern California wildfire storm on respiratory hospitalizations. We used generalized synthetic control to compare the average number of ZIP code-level respiratory hospitalizations during the wildfire storm between ZIP codes that were classified as exposed versus unexposed to wildfire smoke. We considered wildfire exposure eligibility for each ZIP code using fire perimeters and satellite-based smoke plume data. We retrieved respiratory hospitalization discharge data from the Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development. R code to implement the generalized synthetic control method is included for reproducibility. The analysis included 172 exposed and 578 unexposed ZIP codes. We estimated that the average effect of the wildfire storm among the exposed ZIP codes was an 18% (95% confidence interval: 10% to 29%) increase in respiratory hospitalizations. We illustrate the use of generalized synthetic control to leverage natural experiments to quantify the health impacts of extreme weather events when traditional approaches are unavailable or limited by assumptions.

Extreme Weather Events and Spiraling Debt: A Double Whammy for Bangladeshis Affected by Climate Change

This study explores how people living in different areas of Bangladesh prone to extreme weather events (EWEs) in the form of floods, cyclones, or droughts perceive climate change, the impacts they suffer in the face of EWEs, and how they cope with their consequences. Qualitative data was collected through in-depth interviews with 73 respondents from three different areas of Bangladesh and subsequently analyzed. The results show that there are similarities and differences between respondents from regions with different vulnerabilities in terms of their views and perceptions about what climate change is its causes, the consequences of EWEs, and the strategies they adopt to cope with their effects. Respondents understood climate change based on their own local experiences of climate change and EWEs. A main finding is that people in all three areas are driven to borrow money in the face of these events as a survival strategy and to be able to continue to support their families. As the climate is set to change rapidly and EWEs to occur more frequently and regularly, it will become routine for those most vulnerable to them to have to cope and live with their impacts. Increased reliance on borrowing risks leading to a debt spiral for already vulnerable people. They are thus subject to a “double whammy”: on the one hand the direct effects of climate change and EWEs on their lives and livelihoods and on the other getting caught in a debt spiral sparked by times of crisis.

BARRIERS TO THE ADOPTION OF CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES IN THE DRYLAND OF NORTHERN NIGERIA

The study assessed the different barriers that limit the adoption of climate smart agricultural practices. Farmers view on the different barriers that limit the adoption of CSAPs is an important step of determining any action to be taken to reduce the negative effects of extreme weather events. Data for the study were collected through focus group discussion and interview that was administered on 220 smallholder farmers using availability sampling procedure. The data were analyzed using frequencies, percentage and charts. The finding revealed that barriers to CSAPs adoption has been found to be an endemic problem in the drylands of northern Nigeria with poor access to fertilizer, unavailability of extension workers, inadequate capital, unavailability of equipment among others all militating against the ability of the rural dwellers to effectively take up various innovation. Some of the recommendations made that since capital constraint has been the headache of most rural farmers, therefore stakeholders should strategize on how to promote the adoptions of CSAPs in capital constraints farm household. Farmers are also encourage to form cooperative societies to enable them have access to credit facilities and other inputs needed for effective adoption of the practices

From Extreme Weather Events to ‘Cascading Vulnerabilities’: Participatory Flood Research Methodologies in Brazil During COVID-19

Extreme weather events are entangled with each other and with other extreme events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, anti-racist protests, drought, a housing crisis, strikes, or climate emergencies, as well as with more general inadequacies due to national, economic, and political upheavals and accreted vulnerabilities from long-term policies or inactions. Effects of extreme weather events are intensified by ongoing social injustices like poverty and structural racism, a housing deficit, and the consequent informal and unplanned occupation of hazardous areas, such as riverbanks, and areas of previous social-environmental disasters. In the context of Brazil, the ongoing deforestation in the Amazon (agribusiness, mining and illegal wood) provoking droughts and energy shortages in the region creates further vulnerabilities that are felt globally. In this paper, our primary contribution to these inter-connected scenarios is to describe methodological interventions that were made in response to COVID-19, and to show how those changes provided new insights into vulnerability processes of both subjects and researchers. During a larger project (Waterproofing Data), focused on the case study research areas of São Paulo and Acre (Brazil) wherein our wider team conducted flood-risk community research, we were forced to rethink our approach. We moved away from the singularity of the flood event and its impacts toward acknowledging the cascading conditions of social vulnerability (caused by weather, health, social and political conditions). In this paper, we directly address the ‘cascade of vulnerabilities’ that the flood-prone communities already encounter when researchers seek to engage with them. We open new avenues to reconsider citizenship, space, and innovation in terms of the key challenges that our methods encountered when conducting participatory flood research methodologies, particularly during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020 to November 2021. Through flood research in Brazil, we articulate methodological contributions from the arts, humanities, and social sciences for more realistic, just, and caring research practices within and about weather in the context of ‘slow violence’ [Nixon, R (2013). Slow Violence and the Environmentalism of the Poor. Cambridge, MA: Harvard UP].

Effects of Weather Extremes on the Nutrient Dynamics of a Shallow Eutrophic Lake as Observed during a Three-Year Monitoring Study

The formation of algal and cyanobacterial blooms caused by the eutrophication of water bodies is a growing global concern. To examine the impact of extreme weather events on blooms, eutrophication-related parameters (e.g., water temperature, nitrate, ammonium, nitrite, and soluble reactive phosphate (SRP)) were quantitatively assessed monthly over three years (2017–2019) at Lake Seeburg (Central Germany), a shallow eutrophic lake with regular cyanobacterial blooms. In addition, SRP concentrations in sediment pore water were assessed monthly for one year (2018). The monitoring period included a three-day extremely heavy rain event in 2017 as well as a severe drought in summer 2018. No such extreme weather conditions occurred in 2019. After the heavy rain event in 2017, anoxic water containing high levels of ammonium and SRP entered the lake from flooded upstream wetlands. This external nutrient spike resulted in a heavy but short (3 weeks) and monospecific cyanobacterial bloom. A different situation occurred during the exceptionally hot and dry summer of 2018. Especially favored by high water temperatures, SRP concentrations in sediment pore waters gradually increased to extreme levels (34.4 mg/L). This resulted in a strong and sustained internal SRP delivery into the water column (69 mg/m2·d−1), which supported the longest-lasting cyanobacterial bloom (3 months) within the three-year monitoring period. Subsequent biomass decay led to oxygen-depleted conditions in the bottom waters, elevated ammonium, and, later, nitrate concentrations. Our observations demonstrate the particular effects of extreme weather events on nutrient dynamics and the phytoplankton composition in the lake. As the frequency and intensity of such events will likely increase due to climate change, their impacts need to be increasingly considered, e.g., in future remediation strategies.

Weathering information disruption: Typhoon strikes and analysts’ forecast dispersion

This study exploits typhoon strikes as a type of exogenous shock and examines the effects of extreme weather events on information production in financial markets. Using historical typhoon information in China, we find that analysts’ forecast dispersion soars significantly when typhoons are near or land in the city in which the firm's headquarter is located. In support of the information disruption mechanism, typhoon strikes have more substantial effects on exacerbating information uncertainty and reduce site visits to firms. An alternative explanation of earnings uncertainty is excluded. Our findings contribute to research on climate-induced adverse effects related to information acquisition costs.

Information transfer as a tool to improve the resilience of farmers against the effects of climate change: The case of the Peruvian National Agrarian Innovation System

CONTEXTIn the last few years, the effects of climate change have impacted heavily on the agricultural sector, particularly in developing countries provided their high vulnerability. In this sense, knowledge and information transference could act as a strategic support service to improve the resilience of their farming systems, as this would help farmers to adapt and take advantage of the new scenarios brought by climate change, as well as to take preventive actions. OBJECTIVEThe aim of this study was to understand the structure of the interactions between farmers and institutions of the National Agrarian Innovation System of Peru regarding the transfer of information on preventing the effects of extreme weather events. To do so, we aim to understand how farmers and institutions are connected and how the climatic and farming systems' particularities of the territories, the main roles of the institutions and the media through which farmers get the information from each of them could influence such information transfer processes. METHODSThe structure of interactions between institutions and farmers is modelled for the period 2016–2019 by means of the Latent Block Modelling clustering algorithm. Given the differences in size, resources and practices between smallholders and large-scale farmers, the relationships between them and the institutions are modelled and analysed separately. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSThis study identifies how actors involved in preventive information transfer in the National Agrarian Innovation System of Peru are connected, quantifies their relevance and detects deficiencies in such transfer processes. Results show that less than 13% of smallholders and 18% of large-scale farmers in Peru are getting this information, which is mainly transferred by the TV and the radio (non-specialized media) and mostly only by one governmental institution. Additionally, we detected some groups of farmers who rely on other institutions too, with regional differences in the access to information. Results suggest that there is room for improvement regarding the transfer of information on preventing extreme weather events. SIGNIFICANCEThe results obtained and their discussion could be particularly useful to help in the design of policies focused on improving the efficiency and effectiveness of climatic-related information transfer. In the end, this would help to improve the resilience of Peruvian farmers against climate change and thus, to strengthen the Peruvian agricultural sector.