Climatic Events Research Articles

Climatic impacts on mortality in pre-industrial Sweden

Abstract. Climate variability and change, as well as extreme weather events, have notable impacts on human health and mortality. In historical times, the effect of climate on health and mortality was stronger than today, owing to factors such as poor housing and healthcare, along with the nutrition status that was meditated through climatic impacts on food production. Despite this, climatic impacts on mortality in the past remain poorly understood. This study aims to improve the understanding of climate effects on mortality using annual mortality records and meteorological data from Sweden between 1749 and 1859. The analysis includes the entire population, as well as subgroups based on sex and age. A statistically significant negative correlation was found between late winter and spring temperatures and mortality (i.e. lower temperatures equal higher mortality, and vice versa). We demonstrate that colder late winter and spring seasons were linked to higher mortality levels, not only for the same year but also for the following year. Conversely, no statistically significant associations were observed between summer or autumn temperatures and mortality, and only weak associations existed with hydroclimate. The impact of late winter and spring season temperature on mortality was most pronounced for the same year in southern Sweden and during the 19th century but stronger for the following year in central Sweden and during the 18th century. These findings call for further research, especially with respect to investigating specific diseases and additional factors contributing to the observed increase in mortality following cold late winter and spring seasons in Sweden during the late pre-industrial period.

Browning events in Arctic ecosystems: Diverse causes with common consequences

Arctic ecosystems are experiencing extreme climatic, biotic and physical disturbance events that can cause substantial loss of plant biomass and productivity, sometimes at scales of >1000 km2. Collectively known as browning events, these are key contributors to the spatial and temporal complexity of Arctic greening and vegetation dynamics. If we are to properly understand the future of Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, their productivity, and their feedbacks to climate, understanding browning events is essential. Here we bring together understanding of browning events in Arctic ecosystems to compare their impacts and rates of recovery, and likely future changes in frequency and distribution. We also seek commonalities in impacts across these contrasting event types. We find that while browning events can cause high levels of plant damage (up to 100% mortality), ecosystems have substantial capacity for recovery, with biomass largely re-established within five years for many events. We also find that despite the substantial loss of leaf area of dominant species, compensatory mechanisms such as increased productivity of undamaged subordinate species lessen the impacts on carbon sequestration. These commonalities hold true for most climatic and biotic events, but less so for physical events such as fire and abrupt permafrost thaw, due to the greater removal of vegetation. Counterintuitively, some events also provide conditions for greater productivity (greening) in the longer-term, particularly where the disturbance exposes ground for plant colonisation. Finally, we find that projected changes in the causes of browning events currently suggest many types of events will become more frequent, with events of tundra fire and abrupt permafrost thaw expected to be the greatest contributors to future browning due to their severe impacts and occurrence in many Arctic regions. Overall, browning events will have increasingly important consequences for ecosystem structure and function, and for feedback to climate.

Assessment and driving factor analysis of eco-environmental security for the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau

ABSTRACT Eco-environmental security reflects a region’s capacity to mitigate threats posed by ecological degradation and resource scarcity, thereby sustaining its environmental support for economic development. Monitoring and evaluating changes in eco-environmental security are essential for promoting regional sustainability. However, existing ecological security indices predominantly focus on vegetation resources and often overlook critical factors, such as water and soil resources. This study develops an integrated eco-environmental security index that encompasses water, soil, life, and air components. Using the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau as a case study, we assess changes in eco-environmental security between 2000 and 2020. The results show that (1) the eco-environmental security situation in the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau region decreases from southeast to northwest, with climate and terrain being the dominant factors shaping this spatial pattern. (2) Influenced by the warming and humidification of the climate, the interannual trend is gradually improving, but extreme climate events have caused certain disturbances. (3) The Hurst index indicates that the eco-environmental security conditions in the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau region are expected to improve in the future. The index developed in this study accounts for the unique geographical and climatic conditions of the plateau, offering both methodological and theoretical insights for assessing ecological security in ecologically vulnerable areas and supporting regional sustainable development.

Cryptic diversity and evolutionary history of the fish species Xenotoca variata (Cyprinodontiformes: Goodeidae) in the Mexican Plateau: Implications for taxonomy and conservation

AbstractGeological and climatic events frequently represent the primary explanations to describe evolutionary processes among species. Freshwater fishes have been used previously as models to uncover evolutionary and historical biogeographic patterns in central Mexico, hydrologic systems and biotas. Xenotoca variata (Cyprinodontiformes: Goodeidae) is one of the most widely distributed species across central Mexico. The species represents a highly dimorphic and sexually selective species. In this study, the phylogenetic and phylogeographic patterns of populations of X. variata, using one mitochondrial locus (cytb) and three nuclear loci (S7, RHO, and RAG1), were described in order to understand the evolutionary history of the species throughout its distributional range. Two well‐defined and highly supported clades were recovered with all analyses and genes studied, with an estimated divergence time of ca. 2.42 Mya, corroborating the existence of an independent evolutionary unit in Cuitzeo Lake and its recognition as a putative new species. Also, a phylogeographic structure in two genes was found within the widely distributed clades. The role played by climate change events and geological history as well as the possible influence of reproductive traits in the phylogeographic pattern of the species are discussed.

Influence of Extreme Climate events on wind and Solar Energy over the Gobi Desert Region of China in the future

Influence of Extreme Climate events on wind and Solar Energy over the Gobi Desert Region of China in the future

Winter is (not) coming: Acoustic monitoring and temperature variation across important bat hibernacula

Little is known about the winter bat activity in Bulgaria, which poses challenges in monitoring potential deviations in their behaviour as a consequence of the warming climate. Using passive acoustic monitoring, we investigated the winter activity in some of Europe’s largest hibernacula. Our findings reveal cave and species-specific activity patterns. Activity was observed throughout each month of the survey, with distinct peaks on specific days. At one high-elevation site, bat activity was restricted to a single night, while the highest overall activity occurred at the highest elevation site (1325 m). The most active species was Myotis capaccinii (Bonaparte, 1837). While bats were mostly active right after sunset following their usual circadian rhythm, some daytime activity was also observed, including emergence at temperatures as low as -8°C. At sites with sufficient activity data, external temperature emerged as a significant positive predictor of bat activity, with higher temperatures associated with increased activity. Our data also suggest that bats rarely forage near the roost entrances. The observed variability in activity levels between study sites highlights the need for high-resolution, site-specific data rather than broad generalisations.

An optimal path threshold method for rigorously identifying extreme climate events

Abstract The frequent occurrence of extreme hydroclimate events has a significant impact on ecosystems and socio-economic systems. However, intercomparisons of extreme events are often hampered by inconsistent definitions and standardizations for different types of events. Here we introduce the OPT method, a dynamic programming-based approach that adaptively determines the optimal thresholds for defining extreme events at specific severity levels. Two case studies demonstrate its applicability. The first case study presents a long-term comparison of air heatwaves and lake heatwaves in Lake Mead. The algorithm adaptively selects thresholds to identify a comparable number of events at various severity levels. The second case study examines compound hot, dry, and windy events in California, exploring threshold selection for multivariable extremes and investigating their potential relationship with wildfires. The OPT method proves effective for adaptably and objectively analyzing complex and multifactorial extreme events.

Survival and growth of three boreal conifer species transplanted to warm sites: Implications for responses to global warming and extreme climatic events

Understanding the responses of boreal conifers to climate change are essential for future mitigation and adaptation. In this study, three-year-old seedlings of three Japanese boreal conifers including Sakhalin fir, Yezo spruce, and Sakhalin spruce, naturally found in Hokkaido, Japan, were transplanted in spring 2016 to a cool control and two warm (air-dried interior and humid coastal) sites. We investigated survival, height, and ecophysiological traits based on three parameters: stable carbon isotope discrimination (δ13C), specific leaf area (SLA), and leaf mass specific nitrogen concentration (N) of seedlings during experiments. The survival rates of two spruce species were gradually significantly lower in warm sites, while that of Sakhalin fir did not significantly differ among sites. The relative growth rate (RGR) of two spruce species was significantly lower in the warm-interior site than in both cool control and warm-coastal sites in 2018, although in 2017 the RGR of two spruce species was lower in the warm sites than in cool control site. The less negative δ13C value in 2018 revealed that a vapor pressure deficit might decrease the spruces’ RGR via stoma closure in the warm-interior site. We found that Sakhalin fir would be less sensitive to climate change than two spruce species.

Impact of physical climate risks on agricultural firms’ bankruptcy: evidence from France, Italy, Portugal and Spain from 2016 to 2019

Abstract Frequent and long-lasting extreme climate events can impact business-related natural capital, severely affecting production and resulting in losses for agricultural firms. Physical climate effects are material dependencies for agricultural businesses and may severely affect their performance and compromise their survival. This study’s aim is to analyze the comprehensive effect of climate change factors on agricultural firm bankruptcies in a European geographical area that is especially susceptible to climate change. Employing a panel of 15 036 agricultural firms, we analyze the effects of adverse climatic conditions in the firm’s headquarters area using logit regressions, an instrumental variable ordinary least squares model, and the gradient-boosting ensemble method. We find that bankruptcy is conditioned upon extreme weather events, indicating that climate change’s physical impacts on firm resources already materially affect the agricultural sector’s resilience and survival. Specifically, abnormally high temperatures, precipitation, and the incidence of fires are significant factors that contribute to bankruptcy or insolvency. Furthermore, a “fire weather” index comprising high temperatures, drought, and wind, combined with fire occurrence, intensifies the bankruptcy risk of agricultural businesses.

Urban sprawl and transformations in the urban fabric: contemporary challenges for Brazilian cities

This article argues that the contemporary transformations of the urban fabric in Brazilian cities are characterized by urban sprawl, a process distinguished from earlier ones due to its association with new cultural values and new challenges for urban planning. Accordingly, the aim is to research the extent to which urban sprawl impacts the planning of Brazilian cities, with a focus on understanding the relationshipbetween urban sprawl and climate change. Initially, the article questions key foreign concepts related to urban sprawl, demonstrating the contemporaneity of this process. Through an exploratory methodology, it characterizes urban sprawl through Brazilian interpretations and territorial evidence. The discussion centerson five conditioning factors stemming from sprawl and their relationship to climate events. In conclusion, the article advocates for multifunctional and multiscale premises that address local development by recognizing the systemic nature of this process.

Urban sprawl and transformations in the urban fabric: contemporary challenges for Brazilian cities

This article argues that the contemporary transformations of the urban fabric in Brazilian cities are characterized by urban sprawl, a process distinguished from earlier ones due to its association with new cultural values and new challenges for urban planning. Accordingly, the aim is to research the extent to which urban sprawl impacts the planning of Brazilian cities, with a focus on understanding the relationshipbetween urban sprawl and climate change. Initially, the article questions key foreign concepts related to urban sprawl, demonstrating the contemporaneity of this process. Through an exploratory methodology, it characterizes urban sprawl through Brazilian interpretations and territorial evidence. The discussion centerson five conditioning factors stemming from sprawl and their relationship to climate events. In conclusion, the article advocates for multifunctional and multiscale premises that address local development by recognizing the systemic nature of this process.

How climate change is shaping young people’s health: a participatory, youth co-led study from Bangladesh, Guatemala and Nigeria

IntroductionClimate change is shaping adolescent and young people’s (AYP) transitions to adulthood with significant and often compounding effects on their physical and mental health. The climate crisis is an intergenerational...

First record of “Bigeye trevally” Caranx sexfasciatus Quoy & Gaimard 1825 (Carangiformes: Carangidae) from Peru

Specimens of Caranx sexfasciatus (Bigeye trevally) were collected from northern and central Peru between 2021 and 2023, marking the first confirmed record of this species in Peruvian waters. This study represents a significant extension of its known range, previously reported only as far south as Ecuador. Morphological and molecular analyses were conducted to confirm species identification, revealing diagnostic coloration and physical traits. Observations near oil platforms suggest artificial reefs play a critical role in its habitat preference. The species’ presence in the Humboldt Current may be linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which elevates sea temperatures and influences marine biodiversity distribution. This report not only extends the known range of C. sexfasciatus but also highlights the ecological importance of artificial reefs and climate events in shaping its distribution.

A global dataset of nitrogen fixation rates across inland and coastal waters

AbstractBiological nitrogen fixation is the conversion of dinitrogen (N2) gas into bioavailable nitrogen by microorganisms with consequences for primary production, ecosystem function, and global climate. Here we present a compiled dataset of 4793 nitrogen fixation (N2‐fixation) rates measured in the water column and benthos of inland and coastal systems via the acetylene reduction assay, 15N2 labeling, or N2/Ar technique. While the data are distributed across seven continents, most observations (88%) are from the northern hemisphere. 15N2 labeling accounted for 67% of water column measurements, while the acetylene reduction assay accounted for 81% of benthic N2‐fixation observations. Dataset median area‐, volume‐, and mass‐normalized N2‐fixation rates are 7.1 μmol N2‐N m−2 h−1, 2.3 × 10−4 μmol N2‐N L−1 h−1, and 4.8 × 10−4 μmol N2‐N g−1 h−1, respectively. This dataset will facilitate future efforts to study and scale N2‐fixation contributions across inland and coastal aquatic environments.

From Mountains to Basins: Asymmetric Ecosystem Vulnerability and Adaptation to Extreme Climate Events in Southwestern China

The increasing frequency of both singular and compound extreme climate events driven by global warming has profoundly impacted terrestrial ecosystems. Using machine learning-based Random Forest algorithms and moving correlation analysis, this study quantifies the impacts of extreme climate indices (ECIs) on two ecological indicators (EIs), the NDVI and GPP, from 1982 to 2019. The results reveal that singular extreme climate events exert a more pronounced influence on ecosystems across Southwestern China (SWC) than compound ones. Specifically, the NDVI and GPP exhibited strong correlations with summer days (SU) and diurnal temperature range (DTR), with SU contributing positively (weight = 0.275 for the GPP and 0.238 for the NDVI) and DTR negatively (weight = 0.107 for the GPP and 0.130 for the NDVI). Regional analyses highlighted distinct spatial patterns: in mid–high-altitude areas (>1 km), including the Hengduan Mountains (HDMs) and Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau (YGP), extreme temperatures and precipitation significantly promoted vegetation growth, with rainfall day index (RDI), frost days (FD), extreme temperature index (ETI), SU, and DTR all having a strong influence (>0.1) on the GPP and NDVI. These areas showed strong adaptability to extreme climate, benefiting overall vegetation health. In contrast, ecosystems in low-altitude areas (<1 km) showed more variable responses. The Guangxi Basin (GXB) exhibited strong resistance to ECIs, with vegetation being almost unaffected by extreme precipitation and benefiting from continuous warming. Only consecutive wet days (CWD) and FD were significantly negatively correlated with EIs (p < 0.05), and their correlation weights were low (weights = 0.043 and 0.013). However, the vegetation in the Sichuan Basin (SCB) is more susceptible to climate extremes, which have particularly strong effects on the NDVI. SU, tropical nights (TR), ETI, and growing season length (GSL), which have positive effects on EIs in mid–high-altitude areas, show extremely significant negative correlations in the SCB (p < 0.001), and their weights account for one-third of the total (weights = 0.15, 0.11, 0.061 and 0.012, respectively). These findings underscore the heterogeneous responses of ecosystems to ECIs and emphasize the need for region-specific strategies in ecosystem management and disaster prevention amid climate change.

Point-of-need diagnostics in a post-Covid world: an opportunity for paper-based microfluidics to serve during syndemics.

Zoonotic outbreaks present with unpredictable threats to human health, food production, biodiversity, national security and disrupt the global economy. The COVID-19 pandemic-caused by zoonotic coronavirus, SARS-CoV2- is the most recent upsurge of an increasing trend in outbreaks for the past 100 years. This year, emergence of avian influenza (H5N1) is a stark reminder of the need for national and international pandemic preparedness. Tools for threat reduction include consistent practices in reporting pandemics, and widespread availability of accurate detection technologies. Wars and extreme climate events redouble the need for fast, adaptable and affordable diagnostics at the point of need. During the recent pandemic, rapid home tests for SARS-CoV-2 proved to be a viable functional model that leverages simplicity. In this perspective, we introduce the concept of syndemnicity in the context of infectious diseases and point-of-need healthcare diagnostics. We also provide a brief state-of-the-art for paper-based microfluidics. We illustrate our arguments with a case study for detecting brucellosis in cows. Finally, we conclude with lessons learned, challenges and opportunities for paper-based microfluidics to serve point-of-need healthcare diagnostics during syndemics.

Climate change risk trap: Low-carbon spatial restructuring and disaster risk in petroleum-based economies

Abstract The economic risks from climate change can be separated into two categories: physical risks from increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather and climate events, and transition risks due to rapid decarbonisation leading to stranded assets and shifts in production and the labour market. On the global level, the two risks are widely recognized as trade-offs by the academic and policy literature: rapid decarbonisation increases transition risks while reducing physical risks, and vice versa for a delayed reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, little is known about the interaction between the two risks on smaller geographical scales. This paper investigates the interactions between physical and transition risks on the sub-national level for petroleum-based economies. Their strong dependency on the export of fossil fuels requires a more far-reaching economic restructuring to meet both local and global emission targets than most other economies, exposing them to high transition risks. At the same time, the profound economic changes resulting from a low-carbon transition lead to a spatial redistribution of assets and labour, when brown assets and jobs get stranded and new green assets and jobs are created elsewhere. Building on the literature on spatial economic restructuring and climate disaster risk, we show that, unlike the common conceptualisation as a trade-off, physical and transition risk can increase simultaneously on the sub-national level. We call this dynamic the climate change risk trap. The paper provides an empirical illustration of this trap using the example of flash flood risk in Kuwait, a wealthy petroleum-based economy in the Gulf region. It shows how decisions on urban planning and low-carbon economic restructuring have increased flash flood risk. The analysis highlights the importance of considering climate disaster risk and environmental impact assessments in low-carbon transition planning to avoid falling into the climate change risk trap.

High-resolution Simulation Dataset of Hourly PM2.5 Chemical Composition in China (CAQRA-aerosol) from 2013 to 2020

Abstract Scientific knowledge on the chemical compositions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is essential for properly assessing its health and climate effects, and for decisionmakers to develop efficient mitigation strategies. A high-resolution PM2.5 chemical composition dataset (CAQRA-aerosol) is developed in this study, which provides hourly maps of organic carbon, black carbon, ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate in China from 2013 to 2020 with a horizontal resolution of 15 km. This paper describes the method, access, and validation results of this dataset. It shows that CAQRA-aerosol has good consistency with observations and achieves higher or comparable accuracy with previous PM2.5 composition datasets. Based on CAQRA-aerosol, spatiotemporal changes of different PM2.5 compositions were investigated from a national viewpoint, which emphasizes different changes of nitrate from other compositions. The estimated annual rate of population-weighted concentrations of nitrate is 0.23 µg m−3 yr−1 from 2015 to 2020, compared with −0.19 to −1.1 µg m−3 yr−1 for other compositions. The whole dataset is freely available from the China Air Pollution Data Center (https://doi.org/10.12423/capdb_PKU.2023.DA).

Research on the multi-factor driving paths of Chinese science-technology talents’ career calling: an ability-motivation-opportunity perspective

ABSTRACT Science-technology talents career calling is a vital driving force for technological progress and innovation. Enhancing the career calling among such professionals is crucial for building an innovative nation. Grounded in the AMO theory, this study uses the fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) method to investigate the interactive effects of career competence, role identity, challenge demand, responsible leadership, and collectivism climate on the driving mechanisms of career calling, based on a survey of 231 science & technology talents. The findings are as follows: Five configurations lead to a high career calling among Chinese science & technology talents, which can be summarized into three categories: ‘Responsible Leadership – Cognitive Sublimation’, ‘Competence Support – Challenge Stimulation – Team Collaboration’, and ‘Role Anchoring – Challenge Driven’. Two configurations result in a low career calling, summarized as ‘Insufficient Competence – Role Confusion – Lack of Responsibility’. Based on the Chinese context, this study deepens the understanding of the complex mechanisms underlying Science-technology talents’ career calling and broadens the perspective of career calling research. This study provides practical insights for optimizing the talent cultivation system and enhancing technological innovation capacity.

Integrating Sustainable Development Goals into Urban Planning to Advance Sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Barriers and Practical Solutions from the Case Study of Moundou, Chad

The accelerating pace of urbanization, coupled with changes in land-use patterns and the exacerbation of extreme climatic events—marked by heightened unpredictability and severity, particularly in regions of the Global South—necessitates a thorough reevaluation of urban governance and management frameworks. In response to these challenges, it is essential for strategies to integrate local socio-economic specificities while navigating the inherent complexities of these issues, leveraging contextually appropriate resources within a sustainability paradigm. In this regard, contextualizing and incorporating the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into urban planning frameworks is crucial for advancing urban sustainability. However, significant obstacles hinder their effective integration at the urban scale, particularly in fast-evolving, resource-constrained settings. This study seeks to address this critical gap by systematically examining the barriers to SDG integration in urban planning within sub-Saharan Africa. For this purpose, Moundou, Chad, is used as a representative case study, reflecting both the challenges and opportunities of urban sustainability in the region. A hybrid methodology underpins this research, combining in-depth interviews with key development stakeholders, a detailed review of strategic documents aligned with the SDGs, and semi-structured questionnaires to capture diverse perspectives. The results reveal that the institutional dimension constitutes 38.46% of the barriers identified by stakeholders, with key challenges including limited capacity for long-term planning, a lack of expertise, and inadequate multisectoral coordination, among others. In addition, the economic and socio-cultural dimensions each represent 23.08% of the identified barriers, encompassing issues such as dependence on external funding, the high cost of green technologies, low public awareness, and resistance to change within communities. Finally, the data access dimension ranks last, accounting for 15.38%. To overcome these challenges, it is essential to implement mechanisms that strengthen institutional capacities, promote cross-sectoral collaboration, enhance public awareness, and cultivate a culture of adaptability and innovation within local communities. Furthermore, improving data accessibility and reinforcing financial mechanisms are vital to addressing these barriers comprehensively.