The effects of anthropogenic disturbances on the structure and function of seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are mediated both by disturbance type and intensity, and the environmental conditions, including climate. In a climate change scenario, the interaction between low water availability and chronic anthropogenic disturbances may potentially have drastic consequences on SDTF dynamics and the ecosystem services it provides. We hypothesized that in these naturally stressed systems, the effects of human disturbance are strongest in the most water-stressed sites, implying a worrisome synergism between harsh abiotic conditions (lower precipitation, higher temperature) and human effects, ultimately resulting in a less developed community structure and reduced diversity. By integrating information for the adult and regenerating vegetation strata in 21 sites distributed across climatic, plant cover and disturbance gradients in the Caatinga (seasonally dry tropical) forest of Brazil, we analyzed the individual and combined effects of chronic anthropogenic disturbances, as measured through the Cattle Pressure Index and the Human Activity Index, along climate gradients, on community structure, diversity, and composition. As expected, the Cattle Pressure Index was negatively related to diameter at ground level, basal area, and diversity in the adult stratum, whereas for the regenerating stratum, litter stock had the strongest effect on vegetation structure. Climatic factors were poor predictors of the variation in the three true diversity measures (0D, 1D, and 2D) of the regenerating community. Our results revealed important cross-site differences in both vegetation strata over a small range of climatic variation. We conclude that the most stressful conditions associated with a very low precipitation regime enhance the effects on chronic disturbances, gradually driving SDTF communities into new alternative states and rendering these environments more prone to desertification.
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