Effects Of Monetary Policy Research Articles

Labor market effects of monetary policy across workers and firms

This paper uses Austrian social security records to analyze the effects of ECB monetary policy on the labor market. Our focus is on the role of worker and firm wage components, defined by an Abowd et al. (1999) wage regression. We find that monetary tightening causes the largest employment losses for low-paid workers who are employed in high-paying firms before the tightening. Monetary tightening further causes a reallocation of workers to lower-paying firms. In particular low-paid workers who were originally employed by low-paying firms are prone to falling down the firm wage ladder.

Real Estate Insights on Mortgage Rates, Apartment Prices, and Rentals in Czech Republic

This study examines the complex dynamics of the Czech real estate market, focusing on the interaction between mortgage rates and residential property prices, the influence of dwelling size on market price trends, and the impact of regional economic disparities on property values. We find that lower mortgage rates paradoxically raise house prices through increased demand, calling into question the effectiveness of monetary policy in improving housing affordability. This counter-intuitive effect highlights the complex interplay between fiscal policy and market responses. In addition, the analysis reveals a significant shift towards smaller dwellings, increasingly favoured by single-person households, reflecting changing demographic trends. This shift has clear implications for price dynamics and market accessibility in both the sales and rental sectors, suggesting a nuanced response to consumer preferences across different market segments. In addition, the research highlights a strong correlation between regional economic vitality and property prices, underlining the profound influence of the broader economic landscape in shaping property values in different areas. By integrating these critical aspects, the study provides a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the factors influencing the Czech property market, offering valuable insights for policy makers, property developers and investors seeking to navigate or influence this market effectively.

Analyzing the dynamics of monetary policy and economic growth in Ethiopia: an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

Numerous studies conducted by various scholars have aimed to ascertain the impact of monetary policy on economic growth. However, these empirical investigations have not reached a unanimous consensus. Therefore, this study analyzes the effect of monetary policy. To address this objective, this study employed ARDL and error correction model (ECM) based on annual data from 1993 to 2022. Granger causality test was also employed to check the direction of causal effects of one variable on the other variable. All required pre and post estimation tests were performed and verified that the model was statistically viable. The study revealed that, in the short run, deposit interest rate, reserve required amount, and open market operation have positive and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia; however, money supply has negative and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia. In the long run, money supply has positive and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia; however, deposit interest rate and reserve required have negative and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia. To sum up, in the short run, contractionary monetary policy was promising, and in the long run, expansionary monetary policy was favorable for economic growth. The Granger causality test result shows that there is bidirectional causality between monetary policy and economic growth; except there was a unidirectional relationship between deposit interest rate and economic growth. Ultimately, this research suggests the following policy recommendation: for short-term economic enhancement, it is advisable for the government to opt for a contractionary monetary policy rather than an expansionary one. On the other hand, for long-term economic improvement, an expansionary monetary policy is more favorable than a contractionary one.

The long-run effects of monetary policy: The role of R&D investment in economic growth

This study examines the long-term economic effects of monetary policy, focusing on its impact on research and development (R&D) investment and firm productivity. Using data from Compustat, we analyze productivity’s response to monetary policy shocks, with an emphasis on the role of firm size, age, and leverage as indicators of credit constraints. We use high-frequency financial market data to identify monetary policy shocks through a local projections–instrumental variables (LP-IV) approach. Our findings reveal that smaller, younger, and less leveraged firms are more adversely affected by contractionary monetary policies, suggesting a significant impact on their R&D investments and subsequent productivity, particularly in the manufacturing sector. The findings also highlight that tight monetary policy has a persistent negative impact on firm productivity via reduced R&D investment, underscoring the need for policies like R&D subsidies to support long-term economic growth.

Effects of monetary policy on household expectations: The role of homeownership

We study the role of homeownership in the effectiveness of monetary policy on households’ expectations based on individual-level microdata in the U.S. We find that homeowners lower their near-term inflation expectations and optimism about the labor market outlook in response to a rise in mortgage rates, while renters are less likely to do so. We further show that forward guidance shocks lead to similar differences between homeowners and renters. Our results suggest that homeowners pay attention to news on interest rates and adjust their expectations accordingly in a manner consistent with the intended effect of monetary policy. We characterize this empirical finding with a rational inattention model where mortgage payments create an incentive for homeowners to acquire information on monetary policy, unlike renters. This housing-driven endogenous attentiveness is the key mechanism behind the compelling empirical link among homeownership, attention, and the transmission of monetary policy.

Monetary Policy and Bank Risk-taking

As the process of global financial integration deepens, the relationship between bank risk-taking and monetary policy has become increasingly close. In recent years, financial markets have been highly volatile and banking risks have become increasingly prominent. Against this background, the relationship between monetary policy and bank risk-taking in China is studied through both theoretical and empirical evidence, and corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. In addition, the role mechanism of monetary policy affecting bank risk is deeply explored through the theoretical aspect of monetary policy and bank risk capacity bearing, and the theoretical basis for the formulation of related policies is provided. Therefore, it explores the impact of bank risk on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy from the theory, and further improves the theory of monetary policy transmission to enhance the effectiveness and stability of monetary policy. The article analyzes and discusses the impact of monetary policy on bank risk-taking capacity, to provide a reference for the development of the financial industry.

THE IMPACT OF CENTRAL BANK’S MONETARY POLICY ON THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET

This study examines how the monetary policies of the Central Bank affect the Indian stock market, with a particular emphasis on the Nifty 50 index. The analysis investigates the relationship between important monetary policy tools, such as the repo rate and reverse repo rate, and stock market movements using econometric approaches, such as Granger causality tests. The study's conclusions underscore the significance of taking into account a variety of channels and time dynamics by revealing substantial but complex relationships between monetary policy actions and the Nifty 50 index. Although Granger causality is evident in some cases, relevant confounding variables should be taken into consideration when determining causal links. The study emphasizes the necessity of more research on the processes of transmission and the wider effects of monetary policy on financial markets. Keywords: Central Bank, monetary policy, Indian stock market, Nifty 50 index, Granger causality, repo rate, reverse repo rate.

OPTIMAL CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY DESIGN FOR EMERGING ECONOMIES

The growth of digitalisation presents the possibility for Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to emerge as a secure and efficient payment method. However, despite the benefits, CBDC implementation needs to be adapted to the capabilities and needs of each country. This study uses meta-strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat (meta-SWOT) analysis to assess the internal strengths and weaknesses, as well as the external opportunities and threats, to determine the most optimal CBDC design for emerging economies. In analysing internal aspects, CBDC allows for an efficient payment system, followed by a more effective monetary policy. Furthermore, the technology creates the possibility to boost financial inclusion and trace many illicit activities. However, to achieve that, high investment costs and privacy issues must be accommodated, followed by technological risks such as the digital divide and electrical outages. Turning to external aspects, growing technology, the network effect, enthusiasm for CBDC, and the impracticality of cash usage have become catalysts for CBDC development. Despite these opportunities, central banks should be wary of the threat of cyberattacks, quickening bank disintermediation, legal issues within their respective countries, and competition with private crypto companies. Altogether, the most optimal CBDC design in emerging economies is retail and wholesale coverage, interest-bearing (wholesale) and noninterest-bearing (retail) remuneration, account-based and token-based paymentsystems, a traceable degree of anonymity, hybrid architecture, a Decentralised Ledger Technology (DLT) ledger system, and domestic and cross-border scope. These results are supported by rigorous examination of global CBDC research and development.

Spillover effects of multidimensional information in Fed statements on China's bond market

This paper shows significant information spillover effects of Fed statements on China's bond market. Regarding Fed monetary policy statements as external shocks, we extract both monetary policy information and narrative sentiment information from the statements, with the sentiment data measured using the text analysis method. Furthermore, it investigates spillover effects of the multidimensional Fed information on investors' trading behaviors in China's bond market, using the event study method. Our study emphasizes three key findings. First, both monetary policy and textual sentiment within Fed statements influence trading decisions of China's bond investors, generating international spillover effects. Importantly, the role of textual sentiments as an additional spillover channel of Fed statements has been overlooked in existing literature. Second, the US monetary policy information influences investors' expectations of China's short-term interest rates and their perceptions of risks associated with holding China's long-term bonds, while the Fed's negative and uncertain sentiments primarily impact investors' short-term rate expectations. Moreover, the spillover effects of Fed sentiments on China's yield curve cannot be blocked by China's managed floating exchange rate regime. Third, the heterogeneity test reveals that spillover effects of multidimensional information in Fed conventional monetary policy statements on China's bond market are stronger than those of Fed unconventional monetary policy statements. These findings suggest that Fed narrative sentiments should be incorporated into the research framework of international spillover effect of monetary policy, especially amidst the current period characterized by growing anticipation of federal funds rate cuts and enduring monetary policy uncertainty, providing valuable insights for trading decisions of China's bond market investors.

Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy on Job Flows across Income, Race, Gender, and Age

We study the heterogenous impact of monetary policy, through high-frequency identified shocks, across demographic and income groups. Our evidence shows significant heterogeneity in the monetary transmission across income groups, while significant differences across demographics emerge only for individuals whose income is below the median. We then build a model with idiosyncratic risk and occupational choices that provides a rationale for the channels we uncover: with uninsurable risk, low earners experience a larger decline in earnings, which reduces their likelihood of participating in the labor market and moving across occupations.

Application of Time Series Analysis and Regression Algorithm in Assessing the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Era of Digital Economy

Monetary policy is the series of actions to manage country's money supply and to attain economic growth. An objection to using interest rates in monetary policy is that the use of interest rates has the problem of time uncertainty. Therefore, this research introduces Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk and Henry Gas Solubility Optimization (Caviar-HGSO) with Deep Long Short Term Memory (DeepLSTM) to monetary policy forecasting to demonstrate its effectiveness. Here, Caviar-HGSO is a hybrid of Caviar and HGSO used to tune DeepLSTM weights. The HGSO algorithm follows the wind state to balance exploration and exploitation in search space while avoiding local optimization. A Caviar model estimates the parameter over time by autoregressive process and determine a parameter by regression analysis. The advantages of these two optimization algorithms lead to better monetary policy forecasts. The experimental results show that Caviar-HGSO_DeepLSTM performs better regarding MAE, MSE, and RMSE, namely 0.438, 0.103, and 0.351.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC): An Innovation in E-Payment for Socio-Entrepreneurship

The quantity of electronic currency in circulation within the community experienced a substantial increase between 2017 and 2022. However, the quantity of electronic currency in circulation in 2021 has declined compared to 2020 and 2022. Furthermore, the emergence of central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a digital currency has problems that cannot be avoided; these problems arise from policies or regulations and understanding of the public and business people and are related to the security of digital currency users. The Bank of Indonesia deems it imperative to address this by implementing suitable policies. The policy encompasses digital payments and financial services, including Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Central banks worldwide are encouraged to develop Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to enhance monetary policy effectiveness. The objective is to guarantee financial stability and enhance the effectiveness and resilience of the payment system. This study aims to examine the concept of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) as a novel electronic payment tool for social entrepreneurs. The research approach employed in this study was descriptive qualitative with data forecasting. The findings of this study indicate that Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) has the potential to be utilized as a payment instrument by social entrepreneurs.

Impact of Off-Balance-Sheet Activities on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

Off-balance-sheet (OBS) activities are special means of credit expansion of commercial banks, which can affect banks’ assets allocation decisions, loans supplies, and the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission. This paper analyses the impact of OBS activities on banks’ asset allocation and on the effectiveness of monetary policy. Our findings show that increases in OBS activities weaken the effectiveness of price-based monetary policy through the bank lending channel, and this dampening effect is stronger in periods of market liquidity shortage.

An empirical examination of the effect of domestic monetary policy on external commercial borrowings to India

An empirical examination of the effect of domestic monetary policy on external commercial borrowings to India

Does monetary policy contribute to housing price booms? Empirical evidence from the US economy

Purpose This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers behind fluctuations in housing prices in US. Design/methodology/approach Monthly data from January 1991 to July 2023 and various appropriate analytical tools such as unit root tests, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response function and Granger causality test were applied for the data analysis. Findings The Johansen cointegration findings reveal the presence of a long-term relationship among the variables. VECM results indicate a negative correlation between nominal and real interest rates and housing prices in both the short and long terms, suggesting that a strict monetary policy can help in controlling the housing price increase in the USA. However, housing prices are more responsive to changes in nominal interest rates than to real interest rates. Additionally, the study reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the upsurge in housing prices in the USA. Originality/value This study contributes by examining the role that nominal or real interest rates play in shaping housing prices in the USA. Moreover, given the recent significant upsurge in housing prices, this study presents a unique opportunity to investigate whether these price increases are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding nominal or real interest rates. Additionally, using monthly data, this study provides a deeper understanding of the fluctuations in housing prices and their connection to monetary policy tools.

A balance sheet analysis of monetary policy effects on banks

Monetary policy operations affect bank balance sheets (BBSs). This study develops a balance sheet model to examine the impacts of monetary policy operations on banks' ability to supply funds. That ability is assessed using the balance sheet capacities provided by regulatory risk management instruments. The balance sheet approach views a monetary policy operation as a transaction between the central bank and a commercial bank, modeling the transaction as multiple changes to the BBS. This study identifies and distinguishes the effects of multiple changes in the BBS on balance sheet capacity. A balance sheet change resulting from a monetary policy operation may positively or negatively affect balance sheet capacity. Thus, a monetary policy may have a positive and a negative effect simultaneously. Positive (negative) effects result from balance sheet changes that reduce (increase) bank risks, as measured by regulations. As regulatory stringency decreases, the positive effects increase, whereas the negative effects remain unchanged. A BBS capacity channel of monetary policy is also shown.

The coevolution effect of central bank digital currency and green bonds on the net-zero economy

Directed by the net-zero emission goal, the green bond has become an essential financial tool to promote the development of the green economy. However, the greenwashing risk makes it doubtful whether the green bond can play a positive role. Therefore, this study constructs a six-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze whether the coevolution of central bank digital currency (CBDC) and green bonds can fully play a positive role in promoting the net-zero economy. The results indicate that: (i) Increased CBDC supply has a positive effect on the economy, and also promotes green bond financing and net-zero emissions. (ii) Compared with non-interest-bearing CBDC, the coevolution of interest-bearing CBDC and green bonds is more likely to promote the net-zero economy and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. (iii) When the economy is overheating or in recession, the central bank can regulate green bond financing by adjusting the CBDC interest rate to promote a net-zero economy. (iv) The coevolution of interest-bearing CBDC and green bonds will achieve a higher welfare level than non-interest-bearing CBDC. This study provides guidance for the coevolution of CBDC technology innovation and green bond financial innovation.

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Investment and ConsumptionTaking the US GDP Data from 1981 to 2022 as an Example

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Investment and ConsumptionTaking the US GDP Data from 1981 to 2022 as an Example

The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies of the US, EU, and China on global green investment

This study investigates how the monetary policies of the USA, EU, and China affect global green investment differently by using the dynamic autoregressive distributive lag (DARDL) model and kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS). DARDL's results show that US monetary policy is not conducive to global green investment in the short and long term. The EU's conventional monetary policy negatively impacts global green investment, but only in the short term. However, China's conventional monetary policy boosts global green investment in the long term. The inference from the response simulations implies that the conventional monetary easing policy of the US, EU, and China positively influences global green investment in the long and short run. However, the magnitude of the response of the EU is greater than that of the US and China. Unconventional monetary policy easing of the US negatively influences global green investments in the short run, whereas China and EU policies affect it positively. However, in the long run, global green investment is unaffected by unconventional monetary policy easing in the case of the US. In contrast, China's and the EU's unconventional monetary policies easing have had a positive impact. In the case of financial development, a negative impact on global green investment is more strongly evident for China than for the US and the EU. Overall, the empirical results of this study recommend that a significant change in the monetary policies of large economies is required to promote global green investment for ecological transition.