Effectiveness Of Containment Strategies Research Articles

Analysis of the transmission dynamics and effects of containment strategies on the eradication of malaria

A debilitating disease such as malaria has been a global health challenge for a long time. Mathematical models have provided insights on how best to control, prevent, or eradicate the disease. Most of the models used parameters to represent control strategies. The current research aims at using control strategies as disease compartments for both vector control and human-protection. By this, the long-time evolution of containment measures can be assessed. Consequently, a model of nine disease compartments is constructed using first-order ordinary differential equations. A qualitative analysis of the malaria-free equilibrium was carried out. The results indicate that the malaria-free equilibrium state is locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0HV<1, which implies that the disease-free state will always be attained from any initial conditions. A bifurcation analysis also shows that the malaria-endemic and malaria-free equilibria cannot overlap. Numerical simulations show that vector control is more effective in the containment of malaria than human-protection, which confirms the findings of Ross 53 years ago. Numerical results also show that solutions attain a disease-free steady state with time, which agrees with the theoretical results. The implication of the findings is that more attention should be paid to vector control if malaria is to be eradicated.

Examining operational efficiency with prudent risks of Covid-19: a contextual DEA analysis with an undesirable intermediate measure.

In the wake of the losses of human lives and disruption to the world economy caused by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become imperative to assess the effectiveness of containment strategies adopted by countries. The success of any containment strategy of achieving low mortality and high recovery rate depends on the efficient utilization of available but limited resources, such as number of hospital beds and healthcare workers. While the spreading pattern of the pandemic has been researched heavily, there is limited research that comprehensively focuses on the efficient utilization of available resources to achieve the desired aims of low mortality and high recovery. In order to close this research gap, we employ a two-stage network data envelopment analysis (DEA) to identify the inefficiency in the process and resolve the resource constraints by considering medical and non-medical (administrative) interventions as two serial stages. The number of infected people is treated as the intermediate product, which is an undesirable output of the first stage and subsequently enters the second stage as an input. This network DEA model successfully addresses the conflict between the two stages over the handling of infected people and assesses the vulnerabilities of the countries against the transmission rates of the disease in the respective countries. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a well-coordinated plan for different government agencies to jointly mitigate the risk under constrained resources. The findings reveal that almost of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries have used their resources suboptimally and are producing, on average, almost half the amount of the maximum possible outputs. As a sizeable amount of inefficiency can be explained by varying economic and demographic factors, such as health expenditure and the proportion of the aged population, the efficiency evaluation has been revisited with adjustments for unfavorable externalities. The analysis and its implications can help policymakers formulate optimal resource plans and identify potential areas for improvement.

Effectiveness of containment strategies in preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission

BackgroundDespite substantial resources deployed to curb SARS-CoV-2 transmission, controlling the COVID-19 pandemic has been a major challenge. New variants of the virus are frequently emerging leading to new waves of infection and re-introduction of control measures. In this study, we assessed the effectiveness of containment strategies implemented in the early phase of the pandemic. MethodsReal-world data for COVID-19 cases was retrieved for the period Jan 1 to May 1, 2020 from a number of different sources, including PubMed, MEDLINE, Facebook, Epidemic Forecasting and Google Mobility Reports. We analyzed data for 18 countries/regions that deployed containment strategies such as travel restrictions, lockdowns, stay-at-home requests, school/public events closure, social distancing, and exposure history information management (digital contact tracing, DCT). Primary outcome measure was the change in the number of new cases over 30 days before and after deployment of a control measure. We also compared the effectiveness of centralized versus decentralized DCT. Time series data for COVID-19 were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend tests to investigate the impact of these measures on changes in the number of new cases. The rate of change in the number of new cases was compared using M-K z-values and Sen’s slope. ResultsIn spite of the widespread implementation of conventional strategies such as lockdowns, travel restrictions, social distancing, school closures, and stay-at-home requests, analysis revealed that these measures could not prevent the spread of the virus. However, countries which adopted DCT with centralized data storage were more likely to contain the spread. ConclusionsCentralized DCT was more effective in containing the spread of COVID-19. Early implementation of centralized DCT should be considered in future outbreaks. However, challenges such as public acceptance, data security and privacy concerns will need to be addressed.

Rapid and sensitive detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants in nasopharyngeal swabs and wastewaters

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is continuously evolving, with appearance of new variants characterized by multiple genomic mutations, some of which can affect functional properties, including infectivity, interactions with host immunity, and disease severity. The rapid spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants has highlighted the urgency to trace the virus evolution, to help limit its diffusion, and to assess effectiveness of containment strategies. We propose here a PCR-based rapid, sensitive and low-cost allelic discrimination assay panel for the identification of SARS-CoV-2 genotypes, useful for detection in different sample types, such as nasopharyngeal swabs and wastewater. The tests carried out demonstrate that this in-house assay, whose results were confirmed by SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequencing, can detect variations in up to 10 viral genome positions at once and is specific and highly sensitive for identification of all tested SARS-CoV-2 clades, even in the case of samples very diluted and of poor quality, particularly difficult to analyze.

Impact of Isolation and Exclusion as a Public Health Strategy to Contain Measles Virus Transmission During a Measles Outbreak.

Responding to measles outbreaks in the United States puts a considerable strain on public health resources, and limited research exists about the effectiveness of containment strategies. In this paper we quantify the impact of isolation, contact tracing, and exclusion in reducing transmission during a measles outbreak in an under-vaccinated community.

A Mathematical Model for COVID-19 with Variable Transmissibility and Hospitalizations: A Case Study in Paraguay

Forecasting the dynamics of the number of cases with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a given population is a challenging task due to behavioural changes which occur over short periods. Planning of hospital resources and containment measures in the near term require a scenario analysis and the use of predictive models to gain insight into possible outcomes for each scenario. In this paper, we present the SEIR-H epidemiological model for the spread dynamics in a given population and the impact of COVID-19 in the local health system. It was developed as an extension of the classic SEIR model to account for required hospital resources and behavioural changes of the population in response to containment measures. Time-varying parameters such as transmissibility are estimated using Bayesian methods, based on the database of reported cases with a moving time-window strategy. The assessment of the model offers reasonable results with estimated parameters and simulations, reflecting the observed dynamics in Paraguay. The proposed model can be used to simulate future scenarios and possible effects of containment strategies, to guide the public institution response based on the available resources in the local health system.

Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparison of Strategies in Six Countries.

Objective: This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of containment strategies and mitigation strategies to provide a reference for controlling the ongoing global spread of the pandemic.Methods: We extracted publicly available data from various official websites between January 1 and December 31, 2020, summarized the strategies implemented in China, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, and assessed the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures adopted by these countries with the daily new cases and mortality rate per 100,000 population.Results: China, South Korea, and Singapore adopted containment strategies, which maintained a proactive approach by identifying and managing cases, tracking and isolating close contacts. China and Singapore had a similar epidemic curve and the new daily cases. As of December 31, 2020, the new daily cases of China and Singapore were below 100 with the mortality rates per 100,000 population of 0.3 and 0.5, respectively. But the new daily case of South Korea was as high as 1,029, with a mortality rate per 100,000 population of 1.8. In contrast, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France responded with mitigation strategies that focus on treating severe cases and those with underlying conditions. They had similar epidemic curves and mortality rates per 100,000 population. The United States had up to 234,133 new confirmed cases per day, and the mortality rate per 100,000 population was 107, while the United Kingdom had 56,029 new confirmed cases per day and the mortality rate per 100,000 population was 108, and France had 20,042 new cases per day, with a mortality rate per 100,000 population of 99.Conclusions: China, Korea, and Singapore, which implemented strict containment measures, had significant outbreak control. Meanwhile, the successful practices in China, Singapore, and South Korea show that the containment strategies were practices that work especially at the individual level identifying and managing the infected patients and their close contacts. In the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, which implemented the mitigation policies, the effect of epidemic prevention and control was not significant that the epidemic continued or even increased epidemic relatively quickly.

Effectiveness of containment strategies and local cognition to control vehicular traffic volume in Dhaka, Bangladesh during COVID-19 pandemic: Use of Google Map based real-time traffic data.

BackgroundTo prevent the viral transmission from higher infected to lower infected area, controlling the vehicular traffic, consequently public movement on roads is crucial. Containment strategies and local cognition regarding pandemic might be helpful to control vehicular movement. This study aimed to ascertain the effectiveness of containment strategies and local cognition for controlling traffic volume during COVID-19 pandemic in Dhaka, Bangladesh.MethodSix containment strategies were considered to explore their influence on traffic condition, including declaration of general holiday, closure of educational institution, deployment of force, restriction on religious gathering, closure of commercial activities, and closure of garments factories. Newspaper coverage and public concern about COVID-19 were considered as local cognition in this research. The month of Ramadan as a potential event was also taken into account considering it might have an impact on the overall situation. Average daily journey speed (ADJS) was calculated from real-time traffic data of Google Map to understand the vehicular traffic scenario of Dhaka. A multiple linear regression method was developed to comprehend the findings.ResultsThe results showed that among the containment strategies, declaration of general holiday and closure of educational institutions could increase the ADJS significantly, thereby referring to less traffic movement. Besides, local cognition could not significantly affect the traffic condition, although the month of Ramadan could increase the ADJS significantly.ConclusionIt is expected that these findings would provide new insights into decision-making and help to take appropriate strategies to tackle the future pandemic situation.

Containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs

The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures. We introduce a modified epidemic model that we name the controlled-SIR model, in which the disease reproduction rate evolves dynamically in response to political and societal reactions. An analytic solution is presented. The model reproduces official COVID-19 cases counts of a large number of regions and countries that surpassed the first peak of the outbreak. A single unbiased feedback parameter is extracted from field data and used to formulate an index that measures the efficiency of containment strategies (the CEI index). CEI values for a range of countries are given. For two variants of the controlled-SIR model, detailed estimates of the total medical and socio-economic costs are evaluated over the entire course of the epidemic. Costs comprise medical care cost, the economic cost of social distancing, as well as the economic value of lives saved. Under plausible parameters, strict measures fare better than a hands-off policy. Strategies based on current case numbers lead to substantially higher total costs than strategies based on the overall history of the epidemic.

Effectiveness of Containment Strategies to Control Vehicular Traffic on Roads in Dhaka, Bangladesh during COVID-19 Pandemic: Use of Google Map Based Real-Time Traffic Data

Since the COVID-19 was first reported in Bangladesh on March 08, 2020, several containment strategies were adopted as non-pharmaceutical interventions nationwid

Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa.

The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.

Strategies for prevention of RSV nosocomial infection

To review the literature on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) as a cause of nosocomial infections (NI) on neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) and pediatric wards, and the effectiveness of various containment strategies. We conducted a literature review to define characteristics of RSV NI, and to evaluate the relative effectiveness of various infection containment programs, including the use of palivizumab on the reported incidence of RSV NI on NICUs and pediatric wards. Highly variable rates of RSV NI have not significantly changed since RSV was first identified. The evaluation of the effectiveness of containment strategies has relied on before/after study designs. Focus on rapid patient diagnosis, compliance of acceptable handwashing techniques and cohorting of patients and staff appears to form the backbone of most prevention and containment programs. When these or other measures have failed, the administration of palivizumab has been useful in halting the spread of RSV NI in children. RSV NI continues to be prevalent in the NICU despite adoption of infection control programs. Preventive measures should be employed to lower the risk of RSV NI and, if identified, appropriate containment strategies should be rapidly implemented.