Effectiveness Of Containment Measures Research Articles

H9N2: A Mysterious Avian Influenza Virus: A Global Threat for Respiratory Pneumonia

The viral pandemic in India has presented a complex and challenging scenario since 2019, impacting the nation's public health, economy, and social fabric. This abstract provides a concise overview of the key aspects concerning the new virus H9N2. H9N2 is primarily an avian influenza virus, and while it has occasionally infected humans, those cases have generally been limited and the virus has not shown sustained human-to-human transmission. This paper explores the structural components of H9N2, determinant of host tropism, antigenic characteristics, transmission pattern, and symptoms after viral entry, complications, preventive measures, therapeutic measures, research and surveillance and role of Government for prevention and eradication of viral pandemic and measures need to be taken by the government to mitigate economic fallout etc. Special attention is given to the identification of hotspots and the effectiveness of containment measures. The abstract concludes with an exploration of the challenges faced many countries during the viral pandemic during the recent past and the lessons learned in terms of preparedness, response mechanisms, and the need for global cooperation in addressing future pandemics. Paper also serves as a snapshot of the multifaceted impact of the viral pandemic in India, offering insights into the country's response strategies and the broader implications for public health and society.

Employment transitions and COVID‐19 containment measures: Evidence from a developing country

AbstractContainment measures implemented to curb the spread of coronavirus (COVID‐19) disrupted labour markets across the world. While several studies focus on the impact of containment measures on job losses, this paper documents the effect of containment measures (specifically variation in the strictness of these measures) on employment patterns or transitions. COVID disruption can be viewed as multiple shocks to the labour market (as against a single shock). This is important because labour income is a key driver of aggregate inequality in developing countries, and such disruption has a knock‐on effect on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Therefore, we estimate the causal relationship between coronavirus containment measures and employment dynamics in South Africa. Exploiting the timing of interviews and within individual variation, we find that containment measures impact employment transitions. Specifically, stricter containment measures have a positive effect on the transition into unemployment, and the converse is true for the transition into employment. The implication of this causal relationship for development, ongoing management of COVID‐19 and future pandemics is discussed.

Curbing customer-to-customer misbehavior contagion in the sharing economy

The sharing economy has fundamentally transformed customers’ lives. Providing short-term access to resources, however, creates environments in which customers regularly become the target of other customers’ misbehavior, either personally or toward shared resources. Although this customer-to-customer (C2C) misbehavior is known to be contagious, the reasons for its spread and the effectiveness of containment measures across sharing economy markets remain unclear. Three experiments reveal the moderating role of on-site supervision: platform-provider-directed blame attributions drive C2C misbehavior contagion in settings with formal on-site supervision, while social norms underlie contagion when on-site supervision is absent. Perpetrator-directed blame attributions reverse contagion irrespective of on-site supervision. More intrusive platform and peer-provider measures (in-person reprimands, in-app messages, and photo features) are most effective at curbing contagion by reducing social norms to misbehave and shifting blame to the perpetrator. However, these measures are only effective at certain C2C misbehavior severity levels for different sharing economy market types.

The impact of containment measures and monetary and fiscal responses on US financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper analyses the effects of containment measures and monetary and fiscal responses on US financial markets during the Covid-19 pandemic. More specifically, it applies fractional integration methods to analyse their impact on the daily S&P500, the US Treasury Bond Index (USTB), the S&P Green Bond Index (GREEN) and the Dow Jones (DJ) Islamic World Market Index (ISLAM) over the period 1/01/2020–10/03/2021. The results suggest that all four indices are highly persistent and exhibit orders of integration close to 1. A small degree of mean reversion is observed only for the S&P500 under the assumption of white noise errors and USTB with autocorrelated errors; therefore, market efficiency appears to hold in most cases. The mortality rate, surprisingly, seems to have affected stock and bond prices positively with autocorrelated errors. As for the policy responses, both the containment and fiscal measures had a rather limited impact, whilst there were significant announcement effects which lifted markets, especially in the case of monetary announcements. There is also evidence of a significant, positive response to changes in the effective Federal funds rate, which suggests that the financial industry, mainly benefiting from interest rises, plays a dominant role.

Impact of COVID-19 Containment Measures on Unemployment: A Multi-country Analysis Using a Difference-in-Differences Framework.

At the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, countries resorted to containment measures to stem the spread of the disease. In this paper, we have conducted a global study using a sample of 46 countries to evaluate whether these containment measures resulted in unemployment. We use a difference-in-differences (DID) specification with a heterogenous intervention to show the varying intensity effect of containment measures on unemployment, on a sample of 46 countries. We explain variations in unemployment from January-June 2020 using stringency of containment measures, controlling for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation rate, exports, cases of COVID-19 per million, COVID-19-specific fiscal spending, time fixed effects, region fixed effects, and region trends. We conduct further subset analyses by COVID-cases quintiles and gross national income (GNI) per capita quintiles. The median level of containment stringency in our sample was 43.7. Our model found that increasing stringency to this level would result in unemployment increasing by 1.87 percentage points (or 1.67 pp, after controlling for confounding). For countries with below median COVID-19 cases and below median GNI per capita, this effect is larger. Containment measures have a strong impact on unemployment. This effect is larger in poorer countries and countries with low COVID-19 cases. Given that unemployment has profound effects on mortality and morbidity, this consequence of containment measures may compound the adverse health effects of the pandemic for the most vulnerable groups. It is necessary for governments to consider this in future pandemic management, and to attempt to alleviate the impact of containment measures via effective fiscal spending.

Impact of lockdown on football players’ injuries

Abstract Background The global outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in the closure of stadiums and the interruption of Serie A for three months. Many studies have evaluated the effects of COVID on population health, but few have evaluated the effects of containment measures on the health of football players. With this study, we evaluated the impact of this break on Serie A football players. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted considering a timespan of three Serie A seasons (2018-19; 2019-20; 2020-21). The information was obtained from the German website Transfermarkt. All the players who had played at least one match during each of the Serie A season were identified. For each of the players, data concerning the number of days lost due to injury, both before and after the stop in the championship due to Covid, were collected. Statistical analysis was performed using Stata 17 Software. Results According to the selection criteria, 264 players were selected. This group was subsequently skimmed to 256 players after eliminating all players who did not suffer physical injuries over the timespan considered (non-purely orthopedic surgery; COVID; Intestinal problems; Infections). 256 players were analysed, 228 had skipped at least one day for pre-lockdown due to physical injury (median=37,5), while 227 missed a day for post-lockdown (median=27). Wilcoxon signed-rank test between days lost due to injuries before and after lockdown highlighted significant differences (p < 0.05). Conclusions Comparing pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods, we noticed that there were fewer days skipped due to physical injury post lockdown. Statistical evidence suggests that the same players were more susceptible to suffer physical injuries in the pre-lockdown period. This is probably because some players have worked with home coaching by spending more time in the gym and less time on the field. Also tapis roulant and cyclettes were often delivered to football players’ homes. Key messages

A cross-country comparison of Covid-19 containment measures and their effects on the epidemic curves

BackgroundEuropean countries are still searching to eliminate or contain the Covid-19 pandemic. A variety of approaches have achieved different levels of success in limiting the spread of the disease early and preventing avoidable deaths. Governmental policy responses may explain these differences and this study aims to describe evidence about the effectiveness of containment measures throughout the course of the pandemic in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK).MethodsThe research approach adopted consisted of three steps: 1) Build a Containment Index (C.I.) that considers nine parameters to make an assessment on the strength of measures; 2) Develop dynamic epidemiological models for forecasting purposes; 3) Predict case numbers by assuming containment measures remain constant for a period of 30 days.ResultsOur analysis revealed that in the five European countries we compared, the use of different approaches definitively affected the effectiveness of containment measures for the Covid-19 pandemic.ConclusionThe evidence found in our research can be useful to inform policy makers’ decisions when deciding to introduce or relax containment measures and their timing, both during the current pandemic or in addressing possible future health crises.

Assessment of the effect of the COVID-19 health crisis on the aerobic capacities of healthy patients

Objectifs : Mesurer l’impact de la crise sanitaire liée au SARS-CoV-2 sur les capacités aérobies des patients sains à partir de la mesure du VO2 max et du VO2 au premier seuil ventilatoire (SV1). Mesurer l’impact de l’introduction du filtre antibactérien sur le dispositif de mesure des paramètres ventilatoires.Matériel et Méthodes : A partir d’une étude multicentrique (Angers et Cholet), observationnelle et rétrospective, nous souhaitons analyser l’effet des mesures de confinement et l’arrêt des compétitions sportives sur la mesure du VO2 max chez des patients sains.Pour chaque patient, seront recueillies : la valeur brute du VO2 max et indexée au poids du patient, ainsi que son pourcentage par rapport à la valeur théorique attendue, la valeur de la VO2 au premier seuil ventilatoire indexée au poids et les paramètres cardiorespiratoires habituels (FC max, FR max, VE max, QR max). Deux échantillons seront analysés : les patients n’ayant réalisé qu’une seule EFX (échantillon « indépendant ») et les patients avec plusieurs EFX successives sur trois ans (échantillon « apparié »). L’impact du filtre-antibactérien, utilisé dans l’un des services de Médecine du Sport, sera étudié comme question secondaire. Les analyses statistiques ont été effectuées avec le logiciel IBM SPSS 26. Pour tous les tests statistiques, une valeur de p < 0,05 a été utilisée en test bilatéral comme critère de significativitéRésultats : Il existe une différence significative sur la valeur de VO2 max et du SV1 à la fois dans le groupe « indépendant » (VO2 max : 36.72 vs 35.08 mL/kg/min, p = 0.014 – SV1 : 21.03 vs 19.25 mL/kg/min, p < 0.001) et dans le groupe « apparié » (VO2 max : 2.76 vs 2.64 L/min, p = 0.037 - SV1 : 1.55 vs 1.38 L/min, p = 0.001), plus marqué chez les patients de plus de 60 ans. L’impact du filtre antibactérien ne montre pas d’impact particulier au sein de l’échantillon « indépendant ». Au sein de l’échantillon « apparié », la différence d’âge significative ne permet pas de conclure sur le filtre antibactérien mais l’exclusion des patients de plus de 60 ans fait disparaître la significativité des résultats.

Trends in educational disparities in preventive behaviours, risk perception, perceived effectiveness and trust in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.

BackgroundEducational disparities in health and health behaviours have always been relevant in public health research and are particularly challenging in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. First studies suggest that factors important for the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as prevention behaviour, risk perception, perceived effectiveness of containment measures, and trust in authorities handling the pandemic, vary by educational status. This study builds on recent debate by examining trends in absolute and relative educational disparities in these factors in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.MethodsData stem from four waves of the GESIS Panel surveyed between March and October 2020 in Germany (15,902 observations from 4,690 individuals). Trends in absolute and relative disparities were examined for preventive behaviour, risk perception, perceived effectiveness of COVID-19 containment measures, and trust in individuals and institutions handling the COVID-19 pandemic by educational status using sex, age, residence, nationality, children under 16 living in household, family status, household size, the Big Five Inventory, and income class as control factors. Descriptive statistics as well as unadjusted and adjusted linear regression models and random effects models were performed.ResultsWe observed an initially rising and then falling trend in preventive behaviour with consistent and significant absolute and relative disparities with a lower preventive behaviour among low educated individuals. Indication of a U-shaped trend with consistent significantly lower values among lower educated individuals was found for risk perception, whereas perceived effectiveness and trust decreased significantly over time but did not significantly vary by educational status.ConclusionsResults indicate persistent educational disparities in preventive behaviour and risk perception and a general decline in perceived effectiveness and trust in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. To address this overall downward trend and existing disparities, comprehensive and strategic management is needed to communicate the risks of the pandemic and the benefits of COVID-19 containment measures. Both must be adapted to the different needs of educational groups in particular in order to overcome gaps in preventive behaviour and risk perception by educational status.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13341-3.

Impact of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on asthma hospitalizations in Brazil.

BackgroundIn 2020, a unique social experience was provided by the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Interventions to tackle the pandemic may affect the burden of other respiratory diseases.ObjectiveThis study aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 mitigation strategies on hospitalizations for asthma in children aged between 1 and 14 years, adults aged between 20 and 59 years, and elderly older than 60 years.MethodsData from hospital admissions for asthma were obtained from the Department of Informatics of Brazilian Public Health System database in the period between January 2016 and December 2020 and analyzed by age groups. To evaluate the effect of containment measures on the incidence of asthma and respiratory system diseases (total), the absolute reduction and relative reduction were calculated by analyzing the subsets from 2016 to 2019 versus 2020.ResultsThere was a significant reduction in the average incidence of hospitalizations in 2020, with numbers ranging from −59% (incidence rate ratio, 0.41 [0.37-0.45]) for age 1 to 14 years (prepandemic 1,393.2/100,000 vs pandemic 574.9/100.000), −37% (incidence rate ratio, 0.63 [0.49-0.80]) for age 20 to 59 years (prepandemic 160.2/100,000 vs pandemic 101.1/100,000), and −60% (incidence rate ratio, 0.40 [0.33-0.47]) for older than 60 years (prepandemic 460.6/100,000 vs pandemic 185.3/100,000).ConclusionsAshtma hospitalizations decreased in 2020, especially in the pediatric group and the older group during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may be associated with the reduction in the incidence of many respiratory viral infections.

Compliance with the first UK covid-19 lockdown and the compounding effects of weather

The effectiveness of containment measures has been shown to depend on both epidemiological and sociological mechanisms, most notably compliance with national lockdown rules. Yet, there has been growing discontent with social distancing rules during national lockdowns across several countries, particularly among certain demographic and socio-economic groups. Using a highly granular dataset on compliance of over 105,000 individuals between March and May 2020 in the United Kingdom (UK), we find that compliance with lockdown policies was initially high in the overall population during the earlier phase of the pandemic, but that compliance fell substantially over time, especially among specific segments of society. Warmer temperatures increased the non-compliance of individuals who are male, divorced, part-time employed, and/or parent of more than two children. Thus, while epidemiologically the virus spread was naturally more limited during the warmer period of 2020, sociologically the higher temperature led to lower individual-level compliance with public health measures. As long as new strains emerge, governments may therefore be required to complement vaccination campaigns with targeted and time limited restrictions. Since non-complying individuals at the beginning of the pandemic share certain characteristics with vaccination sceptics, understanding their compliance behaviour will remain essential for future policymaking.

The stringency of the containment measures in response to COVID-19 inversely correlates with the overall disease occurrence over the epidemic wave.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were the only viable choice to mitigate or suppress transmission of COVID-19 in the absence of efficient and safe vaccines. In this study, we examined the association between the stringency of containment measures and cumulative incidence of the COVID-19 cases in the first wave of the pandemic across 28 European countries. Our results support the effectiveness of containment measures in the mitigation or suppression of COVID-19 epidemics. Early adoption of stringent containment measures prior to detection of the first confirmed case, together with ramping up containment stringency during the early days of epidemics, was associated with a lower disease occurrence. The delayed adoption of stringent containment measures did not fully compensate for the lack of early response. Containment measures continue to play a significant role in the control of COVID-19 in the post-vaccination period, when limited vaccination coverage, the emergence of vaccine resistance, and/or increased mobility enabled further disease transmission (Tab. 4, Fig. 22, Ref. 50). Keywords: non-pharmaceutical interventions, containment, COVID-19, mobility, social distancing, Containment and Health Index, epidemiology, public health measures, SARS-CoV-2.

Epidemic oscillations induced by social network control

Epidemic spreading can be suppressed by the introduction of containment measures such as social distancing and lockdowns. Yet, when such measures are relaxed, new epidemic waves and infection cycles may occur. Here we explore this issue in compartmentalized epidemic models on graphs in presence of a feedback between the infection state of the population and the structure of its social network for the case of discontinuous control. We show that in random graphs the effect of containment measures is simply captured by a renormalization of the effective infection rate that accounts for the change in the branching ratio of the network. In our simple setting, a piece-wise mean-field approximation can be used to derive analytical formulae for the number of epidemic waves and their length. A variant of the model with imperfect information is used to model data of the recent COVID-19 epidemics in the Basque Country and Lombardy, where we estimate the extent of social network disruption during lockdowns and characterize the dynamical trajectories in the phase space.

SARS-CoV-2 attack rate in reception and accommodation centres for asylum seekers during the first wave: Systematic review of outbreak media reports in Germany

ObjectivesDespite concerns about the impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) in refugee camps, data on attack rates and effectiveness of containment measures are lacking. We aimed to (1) quantify the attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 during outbreaks in reception and accommodation centres in Germany during the first pandemic wave, (2) assess differences in the attack rate based on containment measures, and (3) provide an overview of testing strategies, communication, conflicts, and protection measures for refugees with special needs. MethodsSystematic web-based review of outbreak media reports (until June 2020) on confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in reception centres for asylum seekers in Germany using the google search engine. Reports were screened for pre-defined inclusion criteria and complemented by snowball searches. Data on facility name, location, confirmed cases, containment measures, communication, protection strategies, and conflicts was extracted for each outbreak and reporting date. Evidence synthesis: meta-analysis and negative binomial regression. FindingsWe identified 337 media reports on 101 SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in 99 reception and accommodation centres in Germany. The pooled SARS-CoV-2 attack rate was 13.1% (95% confidence interval, CI: 9.8–16.7). Outbreak sites implementing mass quarantine (n = 76) showed higher rates (15.7; 95% CI: 11.6–20.2) compared to sites using conventional strategies (6.6; 95% CI: 3.1–11.2), yielding a rate ratio of 0.44 (95% CI: 0.27–0.72) adjusted for testing strategies, type and size of accommodation. Conflicts occurred in at least 11.8% of all outbreaks. Few sites reported specific measures to protect refugees with special needs. ConclusionMass quarantine is associated with higher attack rates, and appears to be a counter-productive containment measure in overcrowded camps, but further research with individual-level data is required to rule out residual confounding. Despite available vaccines, reception centres and refugee camps should follow the available guidelines on COVID-19 response and refrain from mass quarantine if physical distancing cannot be guaranteed.

Selecting indicators for signalling and monitoring the wider effects of the COVID-19 pandemic

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic and the actions taken to control the spread of the coronavirus have a substantial impact on population health beyond the morbidity and mortality caused by the virus directly. To provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic's impact, suitable indicators for signalling and tracking these wider effects should be incorporated into monitoring activities. Therefore, WHO/Euro developed a tool to select indicators for this purpose.MethodsBased on desk research and extensive expert consultation, a framework was developed for the main pathways through which the COVID-19 pandemic influences population health. For each pathway in the framework, underlying mechanisms and related indicator areas were defined. In addition, groups that are particularly vulnerable to the wider effects of the pandemic were identified, as these require specific attention in monitoring exercises.ResultsThe main pathways through which the pandemic impacts general population health as used in the tool are: Fear of getting infected or spreading infectionImpaired healthcare for non-COVID-19 conditionsDirect effects of containment measuresIndirect effects of containment measures through risk factorsIndirect effects of containment measures through wider determinants of health A total of 27 underlying mechanisms and related indicator areas were defined. E.g., one underlying mechanism under the first pathway involves stockpiling disinfectants and cleaners. This results in people being more exposed to dangerous substances and applying disinfectants improperly, which leads to an increase in poisonings. Identified vulnerabilities relate to people's age, gender, socioeconomic status, place of residence/living situation, morbidity/disability status, and refugee or migrant status.ConclusionsDeveloping a conceptual framework provides a useful approach for structuring widespread and complex developments such as the wider health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evaluation of the Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) during the recent COVID-19 pandemic

In early December 2019, some people in China were diagnosed with an unknown pneumonia in Wuhan, in the Hubei province. The responsible of the outbreak was identified in a novel human-infecting coronavirus which differs both from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and from Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The new coronavirus, officially named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, has spread worldwide within few weeks. Only two vaccines have been approved by regulatory agencies and some others are under development. Moreover, effective treatments have not been yet identified or developed even if some potential molecules are under investigation. In a pandemic outbreak, when treatments are not available, the only method that contribute to reduce the virus spreading is the adoption of social distancing measures, like quarantine and isolation. With the intention of better managing emergencies like this, which are a great public health threat, it is important to dispose of predictive epidemiological tools that can help to understand both the virus spreading in terms of people infected, hospitalized, dead and recovered and the effectiveness of containment measures.

Impact of nonpharmacological COVID-19 interventions in hospitalizations for childhood pneumonia in Brazil.

The knowledge about the impact of the nonpharmacological measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic can give insight into ways in which they can also be applied for other respiratory diseases. To assess the impact of containment measures of the COVID-19 pandemic on pneumonia hospitalizations in children from 0 to 14 years of age in Brazil. Data from hospital admissions for pneumonia were obtained from the Department of Informatics of Brazilian Public Health System database in the period of 2015-2020 and analyzed by macroregions and age groups. To evaluate the effect of containment measures, on the incidence of pneumonia, the absolute reduction and relative reduction were calculated by analyzing the subsets 2015-2019 vs. 2020. Comparing the subsets of April-August 2015-2019 vs. April-August 2020 for Brazil (total), there was an significant reduction in the average incidence of hospitalizations, with numbers ranging from -82% [IRR 0.17 (0.14-0.21)] for <4 years (prepandemic 741.8/100,000 vs. pandemic 132.7/100.000), -83% [IRR 0.17 (0.10-0.27)] for 5-9 years (prepandemic 113.6/100,000 vs. pandemic 19.6/100.000), -77% [IRR 0.23 (0.11-0.46)] for 10-14 (prepandemic 42.0/100,000 vs. pandemic 9.8/100.000) and -82% [IRR 0.18 (0.15-0.21)] for all children ≤14 years (prepandemic 897.4/100,000 vs. pandemic 162.1/100.000). We found a significant decrease in cases of all cause pneumonia in children under 14 years and especially in the age group <9 years during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may be associated with the nonpharmacological measures applied to control the SARS-CoV-2.

The Unified State Exam (USE) and the Quality of Secondary School Education: the Consequences of the Pandemic

The surveys conducted by the RANEPA’s Center for Lifelong Learning Economics have shown that parents and secondary school teachers alike believe that the pandemic has not significantly affected the school system’s performance in preparing students for their final exams. Nevertheless, children from low-income families and those living in rural areas were found to be the most vulnerable to the effects of containment measures and the switchover to online learning. This circumstance may contribute to the increasing inequality in educational opportunities for young people, including in the field of secondary vocational education.

Molecular benchmarks of a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

A pressing concern in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and other viral outbreaks, is the extent to which the containment measures are halting the viral spread. A straightforward way to assess this is to tally the active cases and the recovered ones throughout the epidemic. Here, we show how epidemic control can be assessed with molecular information during a well characterized epidemic in Iceland. We demonstrate how the viral concentration decreased in those newly diagnosed as the epidemic transitioned from exponential growth phase to containment phase. The viral concentration in the cases identified in population screening decreased faster than in those symptomatic and considered at high risk and that were targeted by the healthcare system. The viral concentration persists in recovering individuals as we found that half of the cases are still positive after two weeks. We demonstrate that accumulation of mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genome can be exploited to track the rate of new viral generations throughout the different phases of the epidemic, where the accumulation of mutations decreases as the transmission rate decreases in the containment phase. Overall, the molecular signatures of SARS-CoV-2 infections contain valuable epidemiological information that can be used to assess the effectiveness of containment measures.

The propagation effect of commuting to work in the spatial transmission of COVID-19.

This work is concerned with the spatiotemporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Germany. Our goal is twofold: first, we propose a novel spatial econometric model of the epidemic spread across NUTS-3 regions to identify the role played by commuting-to-work patterns for spatial disease transmission. Second, we explore if the imposed containment (lockdown) measures during the first pandemic wave in spring 2020 have affected the strength of this transmission channel. Our results from a spatial panel error correction model indicate that, without containment measures in place, commuting-to-work patterns were the first factor to significantly determine the spatial dynamics of daily COVID-19 cases in Germany. This indicates that job commuting, particularly during the initial phase of a pandemic wave, should be regarded and accordingly monitored as a relevant spatial transmission channel of COVID-19 in a system of economically interconnected regions. Our estimation results also provide evidence for the triggering role of local hot spots in disease transmission and point to the effectiveness of containment measures in mitigating the spread of the virus across German regions through reduced job commuting and other forms of mobility.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10109-021-00349-3.