Evaluation of the Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) during the recent COVID-19 pandemic

F Baldassi,A Malizia,F D’Amico,P Gaudio

doi:10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02004-8

Abstract

In early December 2019, some people in China were diagnosed with an unknown pneumonia in Wuhan, in the Hubei province. The responsible of the outbreak was identified in a novel human-infecting coronavirus which differs both from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and from Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The new coronavirus, officially named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, has spread worldwide within few weeks. Only two vaccines have been approved by regulatory agencies and some others are under development. Moreover, effective treatments have not been yet identified or developed even if some potential molecules are under investigation. In a pandemic outbreak, when treatments are not available, the only method that contribute to reduce the virus spreading is the adoption of social distancing measures, like quarantine and isolation. With the intention of better managing emergencies like this, which are a great public health threat, it is important to dispose of predictive epidemiological tools that can help to understand both the virus spreading in terms of people infected, hospitalized, dead and recovered and the effectiveness of containment measures.

Highlights

In early December 2019 some people in China were diagnosed with an unknown pneumonia in Wuhan, in the Hubei province
Starting from the basic SEIR model, we proposed a new model specified by the following equations: 1072 Page 4 of 13
As the intention of the authors, the approach here developed should be the same that Spatiotemporal epidemiological modeler (STEM) end users could apply in an emergency situation as COVID-19 in order to help decision makers and stakeholders to reduce the impact of infectious disease in the population affected

Summary

Introduction

In early December 2019 some people in China were diagnosed with an unknown pneumonia in Wuhan, in the Hubei province. The disease, known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been supposed to be a zoonotic disease and the person-to-person transmission mainly occurs by direct contact or through droplets spread by coughing or sneezing from an infected individual [5]. It is probably associated with a large seafood and wet animal market in Wuhan City, where live animals are routinely sold, and investigations are ongoing to determine the origins of the infection [6]. Effective treatments have not been yet identified or developed even if some potential molecules are under investigation

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Discussion

Conclusion