Effective Climate Policy Research Articles

When does economic development promote mitigation and why?

ABSTRACTIs economic development compatible with mitigation? On the one hand, development should promote effective climate policy by enhancing states’ capacities for mitigation. On the other hand, economic growth creates more demand for production, thereby inhibiting emissions reduction. These arguments are often reconciled in the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) thesis. According to this approach, development initially increases emissions in poor economies, but begins to lower emissions after a country has attained a certain level of development.The aim of this article is to determine empirically whether the EKC hypothesis seems plausible in light of emissions trends over the birth and implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Drawing on data from the World Bank World Development Indicators and World Resources Institute Climate Data Explorer, it conducts a large-N investigation of the emissions behaviour of 120 countries from 1990 to 2012. While several quantitative studies have found that economic factors influence emissions activity, this article goes beyond existing research by employing a more sophisticated – multilevel – research design to determine whether economic development: (a) continues to be a significant driver once country-level clustering is accounted for and (b) has different effects on different countries. The results of this article indicate that, even after we account for country-level clustering and hold constant the other main putative drivers of emissions activity, economic development tends to inhibit emissions reduction. They also provide strong evidence that emissions trends resemble the EKC, with development significantly constraining emissions reduction in the South and promoting it in the North.POLICY RELEVANCEThis article contributes to the understanding of the (changing) role of economic development in shaping emissions activity. It demonstrates the need for a contextualized, country-specific approach for evaluating the effectiveness of economic development in promoting emissions reduction and uncovers new evidence in support of the EKC hypothesis.

Limit Pricing, Climate Policies, and Imperfect Substitution

The effects of climate policies are often studied under the assumption of perfectly competitive markets for fossil fuels. In this paper, we allow for monopolistic fossil fuel supply. We show that, if fossil and renewable energy sources are perfect substitutes, a phase will exist during which the monopolist chooses a limit pricing strategy. If limit pricing occurs from the beginning, a renewables subsidy increases initial extraction, whereas a carbon tax leaves initial extraction unaffected. However, if the initially fossil fuels are cheaper than renewables, a renewables subsidy and a carbon tax lower initial extraction, contrary to the case under perfect competition. Both policy instruments lower cumulative extraction. If fossil fuels and renewables are imperfect but good substitutes, the monopolist will exhibit 'limit pricing resembling' behavior, by keeping the effective price of fossil close to that of renewables for considerable time. The empirical question whether energy demand is elastic or inelastic has less drastic implications for the fossil price and extraction paths than under perfect substitutability.

How to improve the performance of carbon tax in China?

The Chinese government committed to controlling carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and promoting development of non-fossil fuels. Thus, it becomes a top priority for the government to develop effective climate policies. Against such background, this paper develops a new multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with detailed energy disaggregation. This study evaluates the impact of single policy instrument (carbon tax) and combined policy mixes, in order to investigate driving factors affecting the policy performance. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, the driving factors can be classified into two types. The first type of factors affects cost-effectiveness significantly, while the second type generates considerable effect on emission performance. Secondly, cross-border externalities function as important barriers to the CO2 emission reduction, since they imply extra competitiveness loss and result in considerable carbon leakage. Finally, this paper considers two integrated policy mixes, wherein carbon tax revenue is recycled to reduce capital tax or support clean energy subsidy. These policy mixes can improve both cost-effectiveness and emission performance, and thus perform better than carbon tax alone. In this way, carbon tax revenue can be used to improve the performance. Looking ahead, complicated policy mixes are preferred to improve the performance of China's carbon tax.

Impact of uncertainty in indirect land-use changes and life-cycle carbon intensity for biofuels under climate legislation: a case study of British Columbia

ABSTRACTBritish Columbia's (BC) Greenhouse Gas Reduction (GHGR) Targets Act (GHGRTA) contains ambitious goals of reducing province-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% in 2050 (relative to 2007). With ∼38% of BC's GHG emissions stemming from transportation (in 2012), it is clear that BC's climate goals can only be realized with an effective climate policy for transport fuel activities. Enacted in December 2009, the GHGR Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirement (RLCFR) Act and Regulation have achieved significant life cycle GHG emissions reductions accredited to its enforcement: 904,900 t CO2eq (2012). At face value, this is a great success. However, several accounting issues suggest that these GHG emissions reductions are inaccurate. In this study, the GHG emissions reductions achieved with the RLCFR are first analyzed by fuel source and transport mode. Next, the methodology for determining the life-cycle carbon intensity (CI) factors of each fuel are analyzed, with a particular focus on how indirect land use change (iLUC) is dealt with. The findings of this study suggest that the RLCFR legislation has not been nearly as effective as proclaimed by the BC government. Nevertheless, this transport fuel regulation is essential if BC wants to achieve its future GHG emissions reduction targets. Several recommendations are provided.

The effects of climate policy on corporate technological upgrading in energy intensive industries: Evidence from China

The innovation effect is an important component when measuring the performance of environmental policy instruments. Based on a questionnaire survey, this research has examined corporate energy conservation and emission reduction efforts in energy intensive industries in China under the pressure of different climate policies, and in particular looked into their adoption of those technological innovation and diffusion activities. The results show a large variety of corporate adoption of energy-saving practical activities. In general, climate policies have played a greater role in promoting the adoption of managerial energy-saving activities in respondent companies, while comparatively their influences on the adoption of technology upgrading activities are relatively weak. Regulatory measures have exerted greater pressure and influence on corporate short-term behavioural change, as stated by the respondent companies. However, market based instruments show greater incentive effect in promoting adoption of energy conservation and emission reduction activities that refer to corporate long-term oriented strategic planning or adjustment. For instance they exert a significant incentive effect on increasing long-term research and development investment for technological innovation, and also play an important role in optimising corporate organisational structure. The econometric analysis further proves the influences of market-based instruments in promoting corporate adoption of technological innovation and diffusion activities.

Climate ethics and the failures of ‘normative political philosophy’

In this article the claim of normative ethics to be the main philosophical access to the problems raised by climate change is contested and instead it is suggested that these problems be addressed from a different perspective: that of a political philosophy that escapes its own reduction to a theory of justice. Part I shows several incidences of how mainstream climate ethics fails with regard to its intention to shape an effective climate policy. Part II argues that ‘politics for the future’ as required by man-made lethal challenges has to complement the adversarial politics-as-usual. Included here is a redefinition of what the relationship of politics and morality means in the new circumstances – not only with regard to climate change.

The Effects of Electricity Costs on Firm Re-location Decisions: Insights for the Pollution Havens Hypothesis?

Electricity costs are partly driven by environmental policy choices. In this paper, the effects of variations in electricity costs—as measured by end-user electricity prices–on firm relocation decisions are investigated. Using a discrete choice model and a data base that has not previously been exploited to study this problem, we investigate the effects of variations in electricity costs on the intensive and extensive re-location decisions of European firms. We find that electricity costs play a significant role in determining relocation destinations. This effect is asymmetric between firms moving into and out of a country, and between high and low energy intensity sectors. The findings of the paper have implications for the Pollution Havens Hypothesis, since they show the extent to which the effects of climate policy on domestic electricity costs can be expected to impact on firm relocation decisions both into and out of a country.

Enacting effective climate policy advice: institutional strategies to foster saliency, credibility and legitimacy

This article asks how scientific advisory institutions (SAIs) in climate policy strive towards effectiveness. Our analysis is grounded on the assumption that effectiveness is not passively experienced but is deliberately enacted by SAIs. We draw on a widely used set of criteria, namely saliency, credibility and legitimacy (SCL). Based on an analysis of 30 SAIs, we map and illustrate the repertoire of strategies and mechanisms that SAIs employ to enhance and demonstrate their saliency, credibility and legitimacy in advice giving. We conclude that SAIs enact SCL on three levels, that is, by means of organisational provisions, procedural setups and rhetorical depictions.

The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy

Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.Policy relevanceIn the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.

Can climate policy enhance sustainability?

Implementing an effective climate policy is one of the main challenges for the future. Curbing greenhouse gas emissions can prevent future irreversible impacts of climate change. Climate policy is therefore crucial for present and future generations. Nonetheless, one may wonder whether future economic and social development could be harmed by climate policy. This paper addresses this question by examining recent developments in international climate policy and considering different levels of cooperation that may arise in light of the outcomes of the Conference of the Parties held in Doha. The paper analyses how various climate policy scenarios would enhance sustainability and whether there is a trade-off between climate policy and economic development and social cohesion. This is done by using a new comprehensive indicator, the FEEM Sustainability Index (FEEM SI), which aggregates several economic, social, and environmental indicators. The FEEM SI is built into a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, thus offering the possibility of projecting all indicators into the future and of delivering a perspective assessment of sustainability under different future climate policy scenarios. We find that the environmental component of sustainability improves at the regional and world level thanks to the implementation of climate policies. Overall sustainability increases in all scenarios since the economic and social components are affected negatively yet marginally. This analysis does not include explicitly climate change damages and this may lead to underestimating the benefits of policy actions. If the USA, Canada, Japan and Russia did not contribute to mitigating emissions, sustainability in these countries would decrease and the overall effectiveness of climate policy in enhancing global sustainability would be offset.

(Mis)communicating climate change? Why online adaptation databases may fail to catalyze adaptation action

Over the last decade a plethora of action‐oriented research projects has been conducted in developing countries, exploring how to effectively adapt to the anticipated impacts of climate change. Many intergovernmental agencies and development organizations have chosen to disseminate their research results via online databases. It is unclear, however, whether these databases are useful in terms of actual adaptation planning and implementation. A systematic review of online databases has found at least 64 databases and tools online related to climate change adaptation. Despite the abundance of databases, this analysis reveals that the existing body of online databases generally lack the structure and mechanics to identify, extract, and synthesize both effective and ineffective climate change adaptation practices, projects, programs, and policies. Even relatively basic information, such as identification of projects’ projected versus actual costs is absent, which are crucial decision‐making criteria particularly in developing country contexts where resource constraints are significant. In this paper we evaluate these online tools with a focus on identifying features that potentially could contribute to knowledge sharing and successful exchange of climate change adaptation projects and practices within a developing country context. We conclude the paper with recommendations for how to improve efforts to communicate climate change research, such as more nuanced needs assessments of potential users of databases. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:600–613. doi: 10.1002/wcc.401This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptation Climate and Development > Knowledge and Action in Development Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Knowledge and Practice

The Carbon Ask: effects of climate policy on the value of fossil fuel resources and the implications for technological innovation

Strong policies to address climate change will almost certainly require that large quantities of oil, natural gas, and coal remain underground. Because these resources have economic value, action to reduce carbon emissions means that fossil fuel owners and producers, and other entities in the fossil fuel supply chain, will experience a reduction in wealth. They will be on the receiving end of what we call the “Carbon Ask.” We compile disparate data sources, make some simplifying assumptions, and approximate the value of the Carbon Ask for the world as a whole. We find that the value of the world’s fossil fuel enterprise in a business-as-usual case, unconstrained by climate policy, is about $295 trillion. In a world with a strong climate policy, the value of these resources drops to about $110 trillion, a decrease of $185 trillion, or 63 %. The Carbon Ask is equivalent to 2.4 years of global GDP. After reviewing the literature on resistance to technological innovation during the past two centuries and examining legal challenges to recent US greenhouse gas regulations, we find it unsurprising that the Carbon Ask creates powerful incentives for many stakeholders—who may be firms, workers, consumers, and governments—to resist policies to speed the development and diffusion of new, more environmentally benign technologies. We also find few precedents for policy-driven, rather than market-driven, technological transformations with a scale and scope similar to decarbonization of the global economy.

Situating Urgenda v the Netherlands within comparative climate change litigation

This article situates the judgment of The Hague District Court in Urgenda Foundation v the Kingdom of the Netherlands within the life of global climate change litigation. To do so, the article concentrates on the legal particulars of Dutch law, elements of ‘diffused’ jurisprudence from other jurisdictions and the reasoning of the judgment that is ‘diffusible’. First, the Court's mandate for the State to take more robust and immediate climate mitigation action was informed by particulars of Dutch civil and constitutional law. Such particulars assisted with crossing the hurdles of standing of Dutch citizens in a climate change case, and the imposition of liability on the State for transboundary harm. Secondly, in relation to the separation of powers, there is clearly a marriage of ‘diffused’ jurisprudence from other jurisdictions and Dutch legal particulars with the primary effect of providing Connecticut v AEP a second life. Thirdly, aspects of the Court's reasoning are ‘diffusible’ or amenable to transnational borrowing. Notable in this regard is the Court's adoption of a procedural version of the precautionary principle, whereby the onus of proving adequacy and effectiveness of climate policy is shifted on to the State. However, caution must be exercised in adopting the Court's reasoning as to why the international (namely the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is identified as a preferred benchmark for allocation of climate targets as against the supranational (namely the Effort Sharing Decision of the EU) and the implicit economic reasoning as to why the State's policies are ineffective. To overcome this problem, it is suggested that the appointment of experts by judicial bodies may be the way forward.

The global carbon budget: a conflicting claims problem

An effective climate agreement is urgently required, yet conflict between parties prevails over cooperation. Thanks to advances in science it is now possible to quantify the global carbon budget, the amount of available cumulative CO2 emissions before crossing the 2 ∘C threshold (Meinshausen et al. Nature 458(7242):1158–1162, 2009). Countries carbon claims, however, exceed this. Historically such situations have been tackled with bankruptcy division rules. We argue that framing climate negotiations as a classical conflicting claims problem (O’Neill Math Soc Sci 2(4):345–371, 1982) may provide for an effective climate policy. We analyze the allocation of the global carbon budget among parties claiming the maximum emissions rights possible. Based on the selection of some desirable principles, we propose an efficient and sustainable allocation of the available carbon budget for the period 2000 to 2050 taking into account different risk scenarios.

The Trojan Horse of the Paris Climate Agreement: How Multi-Level, Non-Hierarchical Governance Poses a Threat to Constitutional Government

There is little novelty to be found in the Paris Climate Agreement. Nevertheless, it may have serious implications for climate policy-making. It establishes an international framework for decentralized climate policy-making by states, which should aim to achieve an ambitious collective objective of limiting global average temperature increase to well below to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C. The agreement does not set any mechanism, methodology or criteria, however, for assigning individual mitigation obligations to party states. It does not impose any significant substantive obligations on the parties, and, from a legal, as opposed to political or moral, viewpoint, it seems to be virtually non-binding. This gap is destined to become the Paris Agreement’s Trojan horse, because, under the guise of direct democracy in a system of multi-level, non-hierarchical governance, it grants not only credibility but also de facto authority to climate activists, thus posing a threat to constitutional government and representative democracy. The agreement demands that nation states explicitly acknowledge that their efforts are inadequate, while setting them up for failure, thereby changing the political environment in which climate policy is made. The ambition-obligation disparity creates a large arena for climate activism at international and national levels, effectuating a transfer of power, or at least of influence, that is inconsistent with the fundamental principles of constitutional government. If the collective efforts appear to fall short of achieving the Paris Agreement’s objectives, the judiciary is likely to be dragged into climate policy-making. Climate action groups or executive governments supporting ambitious action will charge the body politic with impotence, declare “government failure,” and seek the help of the courts to get governments to “do the right thing.” To support their claims, they can invoke the admissions and objectives set out in the Paris Agreement. Thus, in demanding that the signatories acknowledge explicitly that their efforts are inadequate, the Paris Agreement paves the way for the new international climate governance. Its implicit reliance on political activism by the climate movement and the related non-hierarchical governance by the courts constitute a threat to constitutional government, the rule of law, and representative democracy. It risks an unconstitutional usurpation of power by activist groups and unelected and unaccountable judges that could undermine legislative power and the role of positive law in deciding legal disputes. This risk of subversion is not well understood by politicians and governments. Nations should protect themselves against these threats. After all, signing away control over climate policy to unaccountable and unelected actors is not in the public interest. Nor is it, under even the most optimistic of circumstances, a viable path to rational, effective and sustainable climate policies. Indeed, the future of representative democracy may be at stake. Climate policy-making should not be left to the UNFCC secretariat, the climate movement and the judiciary. Now is the time for national legislatures to assert and defend their prerogatives.

Public awareness and perception of climate change: a quantitative cross-national study

Research on the extent and sources of international differences in climate change awareness and perception among general publics could improve understanding of the opportunities and challenges of formulating politically feasible and effective international climate policies. However, few studies have attempted to explain cross-national variation in climate change public opinion. This study builds on the relatively small body of existing research on this topic by investigating several cross-national predictors of public awareness and perception of climate change with ordinary least squares (OLS) and robust regression models using national-level data from the 2007–2008 and 2010 Gallup World Polls, which provide the largest available international datasets on climate change public opinion. The following results were most consistent across the surveys and models: 1) awareness of climate change is greater in countries that are wealthier and more highly educated, and is not influenced by political orientation or vulnerability; 2) perceived risk is greater in countries that are wealthier, left-leaning, and more vulnerable to climate change, and not affected by unemployment; 3) perceived human cause is greater in countries that are wealthier, left-leaning, more vulnerable, and more highly educated. The effects of education on perceived risk and unemployment rate on awareness and perceived human cause were not consistent.

Limit Pricing, Climate Policies, and Imperfect Substitution

The effects of climate policies are often studied under the assumption of perfectly competitive markets for fossil fuels. In this paper, we allow for monopolistic fossil fuel supply. We show that, if fossil and renewable energy sources are perfect substitutes, a phase will exist during which the monopolist chooses a limit pricing strategy. If limit pricing occurs from the beginning, a renewables subsidy increases initial extraction, whereas a carbon tax leaves initial extraction unaffected. However, if the initially fossil fuels are cheaper than renewables, a renewables subsidy and a carbon tax lower initial extraction, contrary to the case under perfect competition. Both policy instruments lower cumulative extraction. If fossil fuels and renewables are imperfect but good substitutes, the monopolist will exhibit `limit pricing resembling' behavior, by keeping the effective price of fossil close to that of renewables for considerable time. The empirical question whether energy demand is elastic or inelastic has less drastic implications for the fossil price and extraction paths than under perfect substitutability.

A framework for estimating forest disturbance intensity from successive remotely sensed biomass maps: moving beyond average biomass loss estimates.

Background The success of satellites in mapping deforestation has been invaluable for improving our understanding of the impacts and nature of land cover change and carbon balance. However, current satellite approaches struggle to quantify the intensity of forest disturbance, i.e. whether the average rate of biomass loss for a region arises from heavy disturbance focused in a few locations, or the less severe disturbance of a wider area. The ability to distinguish between these, very different, disturbance regimes remains critical for forest managers and ecologists.ResultsWe put forward a framework for describing all intensities of forest disturbance, from deforestation, to widespread low intensity disturbance. By grouping satellite observations into ensembles with a common disturbance regime, the framework is able to mitigate the impacts of poor signal-to-noise ratio that limits current satellite observations. Using an observation system simulation experiment we demonstrate that the framework can be applied to provide estimates of the mean biomass loss rate, as well as distinguish the intensity of the disturbance. The approach is robust despite the large random and systematic errors typical of biomass maps derived from radar. The best accuracies are achieved with ensembles of ≥1600 pixels (≥1 km2 with 25 by 25 m pixels).SummaryThe framework we describe provides a novel way to describe and quantify the intensity of forest disturbance, which could help to provide information on the causes of both natural and anthropogenic forest loss—such information is vital for effective forest and climate policy formulation.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13021-015-0039-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Energy pricing impact on domestic economy under recent climate action

This article analyzes the adverse competitive effect of climate policy on domestic supply using industry-level data from forty countries. In accordance with the theoretical literature, we define the competitive effect as the difference between the energy price elasticities of demand and supply; the magnitude of the competitive effect is captured by estimating the supply and demand functions. We find adverse competitive effects for certain country–industry pairs; however, these impacts are small. Additional simulation analysis shows potential for substitution between an imported product and a domestic good in less energy-intensive sectors. The results indicate the importance of considering industrial characteristics when formulating and implementing a climate policy.

Multiple carbon accounting to support just and effective climate policies

Greenhouse gas emissions can be allocated to individual countries in various ways depending on where in the supply chain the emissions originated; achieving an effective and just climate policy may require multiple accounting systems.