Effective Disaster Risk Reduction Research Articles

Implications of building code enforcement and urban expansion on future earthquake loss in East Africa: case study—Blantyre, Malawi

Rapid and uncontrolled urbanisation in many parts of Africa is a significant driver of earthquake risk. New constructions are usually built with no compliance with seismic codes, which results in a critical increase in the vulnerability of the building stock. To quantitatively assess the potential consequences of unregulated urbanisation, this study investigates the effect of building code enforcement and urban expansion on the future earthquake loss in the city of Blantyre, Malawi. The analysis, performed within a probabilistic loss assessment framework, estimates the net present value of 30-year aggregated seismic loss for different urban expansion rates and code enforcement scenarios. The results show that high urbanisation rates and lack of building regulations could lead to a threefold increase in average seismic losses in the next thirty years. On the contrary, effective code enforcement could cap the seismic loss increase at 13%, highlighting the financial gain from effective disaster risk reduction programmes.

Big Data, Small Island: Earth Observations for Improving Flood and Landslide Risk Assessment in Jamaica

The Caribbean region is highly vulnerable to multiple hazards. Resultant impacts may be derived from single or multiple cascading risks caused by hydrological-meteorological, seismic, geologic, or anthropological triggers, disturbances, or events. Studies suggest that event records and data related to hazards, risk, damage, and loss are limited in this region. National Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) planning and response require data of sufficient quantity and quality to generate actionable information, statistical inferences, and insights to guide continual policy improvements for effective DRR, national preparedness, and response in both time and space. To address this knowledge gap, we review the current state of knowledge, data, models, and tools, identifying potential opportunities, capacity needs, and long-term benefits for integrating Earth Observation (EO) understanding, data, models, and tools to further enhance and strengthen the national DRR framework using two common disasters in Jamaica: floods and landslides. This review serves as an analysis of the current state of DRR management and assess future opportunities. Equally, to illustrate and guide other United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) priority countries in the Pacific region, known as Small Island Developing States (SIDS), to grapple with threats of multiple and compounding hazards in the face of increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events, and climate change impact.

Preparing multilingual disaster communication for the crises of tomorrow: A conceptual discussion

This paper offers a conceptual discussion about how multilingualism can provide an unusual yet effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategy in multilingual societies. Language barriers (or disaster linguicism) in disasters can be deadly. The general approach to respond to, and solve, this issue is to disseminate disaster information in multilingual formats or to use bi-/multilingual interpreters and (automated) translators. However, this paper raises issues with these conventional “solutions” to disaster linguicism. Since the root causes of disaster linguicism create unique social vulnerability for Indigenous/Tribal, Minority and Minoritized peoples and languages (ITMs), any serious attempt at DRR must reckon with these structural and ideological factors. Multilingualism, incorporating translanguaging, are the preferred theoretical framework and policy responses for progressing effective and sustainable solutions. Unlike conventional approaches to multilingualism, this seeks to develop multi-directional communication schemes by producing more community translators who can translanguage in order to both empower bi-/multilinguals and to decentralize social power.

Damage analysis of retired typhoons in mainland China from 2009 to 2019

Typhoon catastrophes can seriously threaten national and regional security and development. How to quantitatively portray the spatiotemporal characteristics and the causes of typhoon catastrophe losses will be an important subject of scientific research in terms of disaster risk reduction. In this study, the overall characteristics, spatial patterns, and main influencing factors of the losses caused by retired typhoons landing in mainland China from 2009 to 2019 were investigated, through the usage of improved typhoon disaster index (G-index), spatial autocorrelation, and cold/hotspots analysis methods. The results showed that 18 retired typhoons affected 17 provinces in China from 2009 to 2019, among which the areas affected by minor, moderate, severe, and extremely severe disasters accounted for 38.02%, 44.16%, 13.84%, and 4.32%, respectively. The disaster has strong spatial clustering, and the hotspots based on the G index are the key areas to be concerned about prevention and mitigation against typhoon mega-disasters. Furthermore, the effects of exposed population, maximum wind speed, and maximum accumulative process precipitation on typhoon disaster losses were positively correlated, while the effects of exposed GDP (Gross Domestic Product) on disaster losses are weakly negatively correlated. This study identified the hotspots of typhoon catastrophes and underlined the efforts to formulate effective disaster risk reduction and build resilience.

Improving drought mitigation strategies and disaster risk reduction through MODIS and TRMM-based data in relation to climate change over Pakistan.

Drought is an extreme climatic event that mostly occurs as a result of low rainfall, which leads to lack of water in various agro-ecological conditions of Pakistan. The condition could be further exacerbated by the prevailing dry weather. Therefore, accurate, timely, and efficient drought monitoring is crucial to ensure that its adverse effects are mitigated. In this study, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and TRMM-based data were used together with remote sensing techniques to improve drought mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies. In order to monitor drought mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies in Pakistan, the crop water stress index (CWSI), vegetation condition index (VCI), normalized vegetation supply water index (NVSWI), vegetation health index (VHI), and temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) were chosen as the instrument. Due to low rainfall and significantly low vegetation, CWSI, NDVI, TVDI, and VHI are useful in characterizing drought mitigation strategies in Pakistan. Monthly NDVI, NAP, NVSWI, TVDI, VCI, and VHI values and heat map analysis show that Pakistan suffered from drought in years 2001, 2002, and 2006. Seasonal CWSI, NDVI, VHI, and TVDI confirmed that Pakistan was affected by severe drought in 2001, which continued and led to severe drought in 2002 and 2006. We generate spatial correlation coefficients between NDVI and NVSWI, VCI, and VHI, and NVSWI and VCI and VHI, while the VCI and VHI values are significantly positively correlated. CWSI, NDVI, VHI, and TVDI show positive signs of effective climate change drought mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies in Pakistan. Thus, these drought indices have been confirmed to be a complete drought monitoring indicator and reduce the risk of drought in Pakistan.

Effect of individual characteristics, risk perception, self-efficacy and social support on willingness to relocate due to floods and landslides.

People may have to leave their home, environment, region and country because of disasters or disaster risks. Effective and efficient disaster risk reduction activities involving the community can reduce disaster risks and enable people to reside more safely and peacefully in their environment. The objective of this study was to investigate whether individual characteristics, risk perception, self-efficacy and perceived social support were correlated with the willingness to relocate due to floods and landslides. The data were collected from 947 people residing in Gümüşhane Province (Türkiye) using a survey. In the study, a total of ten models were tested with the help of ordinal logistic regression analysis. Consequently, the participants' willingness to relocate due to landslides was determined to be higher than the willingness to relocate due to floods. University students and people with chronic diseases and flood and landslide experiences had a greater willingness to relocate. Residence duration and informal social support were negatively correlated with relocation willingness. Those who believed that they could protect themselves in the event of a flood and landslide were more likely to relocate. Among risk perceptions, probability increased relocation willingness mostly due to floods, while fear increased relocation willingness mostly due to landslides. This study attempted to provide policy makers and scientists insight into disaster risk reduction and disaster risk communication related to relocation.

El Niño without ‘El Niño’? Path dependency and the definition problem in El Niño Southern Oscillation research

The El Niño phenomenon – and its associated phenomena El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña – have become probably the most well-known forms of natural climatic variability. El Niño forecasts underpin regional Climate Outlook Forums in many parts of the world. The declaration of El Niño conditions can unlock development aid money and El Niño events commonly receive widespread media coverage. Yet ‘El Niño’ has not always meant what it does today. The name was originally applied to an annually-occurring ocean current that affected northern Peru and Ecuador, so called because it arrived at Christmas (the Christ Child). The transition in meaning to a complex global phenomenon was related as much to commercial and geopolitical priorities as to the oceanic and atmospheric observations that underpin theories of El Niño dynamics. In this paper, I argue that scientific conceptualisations of El Niño are an example of path dependency. Badging ocean-atmosphere variability as ‘El Niño’ is unnecessary either for the advancement of science or effective disaster risk reduction; in fact, current definitions are confusing and can create problems in preparing for El Niño-related hazards, as occurred with the 2017 ‘coastal’ El Niño in Peru. This paper outlines the historical processes that led to the current conceptualisations of El Niño and suggests an alternative way of understanding ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Pacific and beyond. It then considers the implications of this path-dependency on El Niño’s ontological politics; that is, who gets to define El Niño, and to what end.

Evaluating the cumulative costs of small-scale flash floods in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

• Damages and losses due to small-scale flash floods are evaluated. • A heuristic approach was used to overcome data scarcity. • Indirect damage costs are nearly-four times higher than direct damages. • Disaster loss due to flash floods will be significant in the future. The cumulative costs associated with frequent small-scale flash floods have been calculated for Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to get an insight on damages and losses. There is limited information on the impact of frequently occurring small-scale events compared to large-scale or catastrophic disasters, particularly with respect to its overall implications on the economy at the city level. Such information would support the formulation of effective disaster risk reduction strategies. The study evaluated the direct and indirect damage cost of 204 flash floods in Kuala Lumpur between 2010 and 2016 using a heuristic approach to compensate for data scarcity, and drawing on the market price and restoration cost method. The assessment relied primarily on secondary data from various government departments and relevant authorities. The results revealed that the total flash flood damage was as high as RM48.7 million, which represented 0.04% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Kuala Lumpur in 2016. Direct costs were associated with damage to roads as well as commercial and residential areas to a lesser extent, while loss of productive time was the leading factor for indirect costs. Indirect damage costs are up to four times higher than direct damages, with disrupted road networks being the highest contributor to both costs. Moving forward, risk reduction strategies should focus the transportation sector. The findings of this study is useful baseline information for future projection of damages and losses due to small-scale flash floods in Kuala Lumpur.

Infectious Diseases Associated with Hydrometeorological Hazards in Europe: Disaster Risk Reduction in the Context of the Climate Crisis and the Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic.

Hydrometeorological hazards comprise a wide range of events, mainly floods, storms, droughts, and temperature extremes. Floods account for the majority of the related disasters in both developed and developing countries. Flooding alters the natural balance of the environment and frequently establish a favorable habitat for pathogens and vectors to thrive. Diseases caused by pathogens that require vehicle transmission from host to host (waterborne) or a host/vector as part of their life cycle (vector-borne) are those most likely to be affected by flooding. Considering the most notable recent destructive floods events of July 2021 that affected several Central Europe countries, we conducted a systematic literature review in order to identify documented sporadic cases and outbreaks of infectious diseases in humans in Europe, where hydrometeorological hazards, mainly floods, were thought to have been involved. The occurrence of water-, rodent-, and vector-borne diseases in several European countries is highlighted, as flooding and the harsh post-flood conditions favor their emergence and transmission. In this context, strategies for prevention and management of infectious disease outbreaks in flood-prone and flood-affected areas are also proposed and comprise pre- and post-flood prevention measures, pre- and post-outbreak prevention measures, as well as mitigation actions when an infectious disease outbreak finally occurs. Emphasis is also placed on the collision of floods, flood-related infectious disease outbreaks, and the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, which may result in unprecedented multi-hazard conditions and requires a multi-hazard approach for the effective disaster management and risk reduction.

Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France

Abstract. Population information is a fundamental issue for effective disaster risk reduction. As demonstrated by numerous past and present crises, implementing an effective communication strategy is, however, not a trivial matter. This paper draws lessons from the seismo-volcanic “crisis” that began in the French overseas department of Mayotte in May 2018 and is still ongoing today. Mayotte's case study is interesting for several reasons: (i) although the seismo-volcanic phenomenon itself is associated with moderate impacts, it triggered a social crisis that risk managers themselves qualified as “a communication crisis”, (ii) risks are perceived mostly indirectly by the population, which poses specific challenges, in particular to scientists who are placed at the heart of the risk communication process, and (iii) no emergency planning or monitoring had ever been done in the department of Mayotte with respect to volcanic issues before May 2018, which means that the framing of monitoring and risk management, as well as the strategies adopted to share information with the public, has evolved significantly over time. Our first contribution here is to document the gradual organization of the official response. Our second contribution is an attempt to understand what may have led to the reported “communication crisis”. To that end, we collect and analyze the written information delivered by the main actors of monitoring and risk management to the public over the last 3 years. Finally, we compare its volume, timing, and content with what is known of at-risk populations' information needs. Our results outline the importance of ensuring that communication is not overly technical, that it aims to inform rather than reassure, that it focuses on risk and not only on hazard, and that it provides clues to possible risk scenarios. We issue recommendations for improvement of public information about risks, in the future, in Mayotte but also elsewhere in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.

Spatio-Temporal Hydro-Meteorological Variability Challenges on Floodplain Wetland Ecosystem Sustainability Downstream of Hydroelectric Dams, Niger State, Nigeria

Hydro-meteorological trend and recurring seasonal flood are fundamental obstacles in the country’s task towards the attainment of food security, diversification of economy, sustainability of the physical environment and socio-economic livelihood. This study utilized rainfall records (1980-2015) and hydrological record (1990-2015). A simple flood monitoring and early warning methodology hinged on an Intra-seasonal Rainfall Monitoring Index (IRMI) to identify and monitor flood condition adopted. The computed Hydro-meteorological variables (IRMI, Gauge Height, Inflow and Discharge) were summarized and classified at pentad level to determine peak flow, its variability and flood risk from low to extremely high. The result revealed spatio-temporal variability in IRMI peak values and consistency peak values across the study area. This triggered high, very high and extremely high inflow values that led to sustained moderate and high discharge in recent times; thus, leading to loss of floodplain wetland that aggravated downstream flood as evident in the study area in the years 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 due to steady increase and consistency in IRMI, inflow and discharge peak values. Consequently, there is need to adequately understand the hydro-climatic parameters that trigger flood risk and its impact on sustainability of wetland ecosystems to enhance the knowledge base for effective disaster risk reduction.

Human mobility data and analysis for urban resilience: A systematic review

The impacts of disasters are increasing due to climate change and unplanned urbanization. Big and open data offer considerable potential for analyzing and predicting human mobility during disaster events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to better disaster risk reduction (DRR) planning. However, the value of human mobility data and analysis (HMDA) in urban resilience research is poorly understood. This review highlights key opportunities for and challenges hindering the use of HMDA in DRR in urban planning and risk science, as well as insights from practitioners. A gap in research on HMDA for data-driven DRR planning was identified. By examining human mobility studies and their respective analytical and planning tools, this paper offers deeper insights into the challenges that must be addressed to improve the development of effective data-driven DRR planning, from data collection to implementation. In future work on HMDA, (i) the human mobility of vulnerable populations should be targeted, (ii) research should focus on disaster mitigation and prevention, (iii) analytical methods for evidence-based disaster planning should be developed, (iv) different types of data should be integrated into analyses to overcome methodological challenges, and (v) a decision-making framework should be developed for evidence-based urban planning through transdisciplinary knowledge co-production.

How Participatory is Participatory Flood Risk Mapping? Voices from the Flood Prone Dharavi Slum in Mumbai

Participatory flood risk mapping (PFRM) is a well-recognized and widely implemented tool for meaningful community involvement in disaster risk reduction (DRR). The effectiveness of PFRM remains anecdotal. The PFRM exercise has rarely been applied identically in two different places by two different organizations, which produces varied and uncertain outcomes. In the absence of any agreed and comprehensive framework for participatory DRR, existing studies struggle to provide a scientific account of how the structure, design, and process of PFRM ensure the effective participation of local communities. This study, examines what factors and methods make PFRM an effective participatory DRR tool. In this study, we first identified the process-based criteria of participation. Then we briefly introduced a participatory flood risk mapping exercise conducted in a flood-prone informal settlement in Dharavi, Mumbai. The exercise was carefully designed to meet the process criteria of effective participation. Finally, using qualitative research methods, we evaluated the effectiveness of our PFRM from the local community perspective. The findings show that ensuring community livelihood security and true involvement of marginalized groups, preparing an action plan, and incorporating fun and cultural connotations into the facilitation process are critical components that enhance community participation through PFRM in DRR.

Characterizing uncertainty of general building stock exposure data

Effective disaster risk management (DRM) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) require modeling potential and post-event impacts using building exposure data. The data used to develop building exposure databases will influence the accuracy of risk assessments and the appropriateness of subsequent decisions. This article proposes a framework for classifying approaches of developing building exposure databases into levels. To examine the uncertainty introduced through using various approaches to exposure development, a probabilistic seismic risk assessment was run with the exposure data corresponding to each proposed level using the County of Los Angeles as the study area. A factor of ∼2.5 was observed in the final loss estimates. The variance was less dependent on the spatial scale of data than on key values, most notably estimates of building size and replacement cost.

Application of web hazard maps to high school education for disaster risk reduction

Hazard maps are irreplaceable in dealing with emergency disaster cases, and geography instructors utilize paper hazard maps for teaching at various educational levels. In recent years, web hazard maps have received attention in disaster risk reduction (DRR) education. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of web hazard maps in DRR education compared with conventional paper hazard maps, an aspect that has rarely been studied previously. The core technology of online web hazard maps is geographic information systems (GIS), and their combination is referred to as Web GIS. Online DRR educational materials for Japanese and Chinese high school students were constructed using Web GIS and geospatial data, including hazard information, to investigate the educational feasibility of web hazard maps. Important findings from questionnaire surveys on students who used both paper and web hazard maps showed that 1) most students thought that informative and easy-to-use web maps need to be introduced to DRR education, and 2) they could identify risk areas more accurately using web hazard maps, indicating that DRR education should utilize modern technologies. However, the surveys also indicated a few limitations, such as usability issues and technological constraints, suggesting that DRR education should ideally combine online materials and paper maps for maximum effectiveness. The results and observations may not only be used in future studies, but also in the formulation of effective DRR courses internationally.

Exploring spatial heterogeneity and environmental injustices in exposure to flood hazards using geographically weighted regression

This study explores flood-related environmental injustices by deconstructing racial, ethnic, and socio-demographic disparities and spatial heterogeneity in the areal extent of fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flooding across Canada. The study integrates JBA Risk Management's 100-year Canada Flood Map with the 2016 national census-based socioeconomic data to investigate whether traditionally recognized vulnerable groups and communities are exposed inequitably to inland (e.g., fluvial and pluvial) and coastal flood hazards. Social vulnerability was represented by neighbourhood-level socioeconomic deprivation, including economic insecurity and instability indices. Statistical analyses include bivariate correlation and a series of non-spatial and spatial regression techniques, including ordinary least squares, binary logistic regression, and simultaneous autoregressive models. The study emphasizes the quest for the most appropriate methodological framework to analyze flood-related socioeconomic inequities in Canada. Strong evidence of spatial effects has motivated the study to test for the spatial heterogeneity of covariates by employing geographically weighted regression (GWR) on continuous outcome variables (e.g., percent of residential properties in a census tract exposed to flood hazards) and geographically weighted logistic regression on dichotomous outcome variables (e.g., a census tract in or out of flood hazard zone). GWR results show that the direction and statistical significance of relationships between inland flood exposure and all explanatory variables under consideration are spatially non-stationary. We find certain vulnerable groups, such as females, lone-parent households, Indigenous peoples, South Asians, the elderly, other visible minorities, and economically insecure residents, are at a higher risk of flooding in Canadian neighbourhoods. Spatial and social disparities in flood exposure have critical policy implications for effective emergency management and disaster risk reduction. The study findings are a foundation for a more detailed investigation of the disproportionate impacts of flood risk in Canada.

STRATEGI BADAN PENANGGULANGAN BENCANA DAERAH (BPBD) DALAM PENGURANGAN RISIKO BENCANA ALAM DI KABUPATEN BIMA


 
 
 The urgency of this research is to explain the strategy of the Disaster Management Agency in reducing disaster risk, reducing vulnerability, and increasing the capacity of the Government and Society in dealing with disasters in Bima Regency. As a leading sector in disaster management efforts, BPBD acts as a coordinator, facilitator, motivator, as well as implementing programs. The strategies implemented to reduce disaster risk in Bima Regency are strengthening institutional rules and institutions, integrated disaster management planning, implementing disaster education and research, capacity building, collaboration, and community participation, implementing disaster reduction strategies, and seeking to increase the effectiveness of disaster management. disaster emergency. From the various disaster management strategies above, the estuary is to seek integrated and collaborative disaster management as a new paradigm in more effective disaster risk reduction in Bima Regency.
 
 

Analyzing urban damage and surface deformation based hazard-risk in Kathmandu city occurred during Nepal earthquake (2015) using SAR interferometry

The study focuses on urban damage and surface deformation in the Kathmandu city region that occurred due to the massive earthquake in Nepal in 2015. The deformation was estimated from pre-and post-earthquake C-band Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images employing the Interferometric SAR (InSAR)technique. The study highlighted a latitudinal pattern in deformation from the north to south directions, most likely directed by the structural alignments (ridges and valleys) in the Himalayan region. The city-scale study exhibited an increase in the intensity of displacement from the north (<-5cm) to the south (>-20 cm) direction in Kathmandu city. Major parts of the city observed moderate subsidence (-10 cm to −15 cm), while the south-eastern and central parts observed severe subsidence (>15 cm) due to structural damage and collapse of buildings. The incidences of land subsidence and damage to buildings were recorded in the entire Kathmandu Municipal Corporation (KMC) area - a large part (86%; 43.84 km2) of which was built-up land and inhabited population (49% of 1,744,240 people) in 2015 - affecting built structures, transport networks, and world heritage monuments. The earthquake hazard-risk analysis demonstrated that the built-up land in the south-eastern and north-western parts were the severely affected areas due to high population and high built-up density. The study elucidates the potential application of InSAR technology using freely available concurrent Sentinel-1A SAR data in the estimation of earthquake induced damage study at urban scale and hazard-risk assessment that aid in the formulation of an effective disaster risk reduction policy framework for the region.

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment using Open-Source Data in the Far Western Nepal Himalaya: Case Studies from Selected Local Level Units

This paper explores openly available geo-spatial and earth observatory data to understand landslide risk in data scarce rural areas of Nepal. It attempts to explore the application of open-source data and analytical models to inform future landslide research. The first step of this procedure starts from the review of global open datasets, literatures and case studies relevant to landslide research. The second step is followed by the case study in one of the mountainous municipalities of Nepal where we tested the identified open-source data and models to produce landslide susceptibility maps. Past studies and experiences show that the major potential sites of landslide in Nepal are highly concentrated in a geologically weak area such as the active fault regions, shear zones, axis of folds and unfavorable setting of lithology. Triggering factors like concentrated precipitation, frequent earthquake phenomenon and haphazard infrastructural development activities in the marginally stable mountain slopes have posed serious issues of landslides mostly through the geologically weak regions. In this context, openly available geo-spatial datasets can provide baseline information for exploring the landslide hazard scenario in the data scarce areas of Nepal. This research has used the available open-source data to produce a landslide susceptibility map of the Bithadchir Rural Municipality in Bajhang District and Budiganga Municipality in Bajura District of the Sudurpaschim Province of Nepal. We used qualitative analysis to evaluate the parameters and assess the susceptibility of landslide; the result was classified into five susceptibility zones: Very High, High, Moderate, Low, and Very Low. Slope and Aspect were identified to be the major determinants for the assessment. This approach is applicable, specifically, for the preliminary investigation in the data scarce region using open data sources. Furthermore, the result can be used to plan and prioritize effective disaster risk reduction strategies.

Indigenous Knowledges of forest and biodiversity management: how the watchfulness of Māori complements and contributes to disaster risk reduction

The United Nations Sendai Framework 2015-30 for disaster risk reduction (DRR) reaffirms the role of Indigenous Knowledges (IK) as complementing and contributing to more effective DRR. This hard won space for IK comes as Indigenous communities voluntarily contribute to the local management of disasters, including wildfire and threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems. The effectiveness of Indigenous practices in addressing hazards is based on traditional knowledges and empirical observations that inform active roles in environmental management. However, it is still not clear how IK complements and contributes to DRR. This article analyses interviews with elders, researchers, and community members and identifies how mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) on forests and biodiversity is embodied to inform Indigenous watchfulness as a tactical approach in contributing to more effective DRR strategies.