Effective Demand Research Articles

Scenarios for a post-COVID-19 world airline network.

The airline industry was severely hit by the COVID-19 crisis with an average demand decrease of about 64 % (IATA, April 2020), which triggered already several bankruptcies of airline companies all over the world. While the robustness of the world airline network (WAN) was mostly studied as a homogeneous network, we introduce a new tool for analyzing the impact of a company failure: the "airline company network" where two airlines are connected if they share at least one route segment. Using this tool, we observe that the failure of companies well connected with others has the largest impact on the connectivity of the WAN. We then explore how the global demand reduction affects airlines differently and provide an analysis of different scenarios if it stays low and does not come back to its pre-crisis level. Using traffic data from the Official Aviation Guide and simple assumptions about customer's airline choice strategies, we find that the local effective demand can be much lower than the average one, especially for companies that are not monopolistic and share their segments with larger companies. Even if the average demand comes back to 60 % of the total capacity, we find that between 46 % and 59 % of the companies could experience a reduction of more than 50 % of their traffic, depending on the type of competitive advantage that drives customer's airline choice. These results highlight how the complex competitive structure of the WAN weakens its robustness when facing such a large crisis.

Carbon emission area division of power system considering carbon

With the advancement of China’s “carbon neutrality” process, the carbon emission quotas of various types of users have gradually tightened, “carbon responsibility” has attracted widespread attention, and the “high/low carbon area” is divided from the perspective of the user side, and the analysis of “carbon responsibility” is conducive to building a flexible and reasonable response mechanism that promotes carbon reduction demand, and revitalizes the carbon reduction potential of the user side. Based on the theory of carbon emission flow, considering the generator output power transfer distribution factor, The emergence of the proportional sharing principle and electrical dissection theory solves the problem of load-side electricity consumption sources. The emerging carbon emission stream theory, which is both applicable to power systems and consistent with the proportional sharing principle, is used as a basis to further delineate high/low carbon areas. By tracing from the load side to the power side, we can determine the power consumption attributes of the load side, differentiate between high-carbon and low-carbon power users, divide the typical areas of high-carbon and low-carbon power, the levy carbon tax on high-carbon power, change the power consumption habits of the load side to achieve effective demand response, and complete the low-carbon planning of the power system from the load side. the carbon emission flow distribution factor model is established, a method of dividing the high and low carbon area of the power system is proposed, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the IEEE30 node system.

The role and potential of trusted change agents and freight demand management in mitigating “Panic Buying” shortages

The goal of this research is to help develop effective freight demand management (FDM) programs to reduce the amounts of “panic buying” purchases. Such programs are indispensable because, as explained in the paper, in “panic buying” environments, supply chains are frequently unable to rapidly increase the amounts of critical supplies delivered to points of sales. Thus, reducing the demand is the only option to mitigate shortages. To reach this goal, this research assesses the potential of a novel FDM initiative that relies on Trusted Change Agents (TCAs) to convince individuals to limit their purchases of critical supplies, and outlines a comprehensive FDM program with initiatives spanning the entire disaster management cycle. The research: analyzes survey data to gain insight into the reasons people participate in “panic buying;” establishes that the term “panic buying” is a misnomer—as the instances of true “panic” are extremely rare—and suggests the term “Disaster Related Buying Behaviors” (DRBBs)” to better describe the phenomena; creates a data-driven taxonomy of objectives and motivating reasons for DRBBs; estimates a Structural Equation Model (SEM) to assess the strengths of the interconnections between reasons, themes, and objectives pursued by individuals who enact DRBBs; assesses the impacts of TCA appeals; identifies the initiatives needed, together with the timing and sequencing, to be conducted at the various stages of the disaster management cycle; identifies the stakeholders that ought to be involved in the executions of these initiatives; and puts these elements together to outline a comprehensive FDM program.

Capillary-Mitochondrial Oxygen Transport in Muscle: Paradigm Shifts.

When exercising humans increase their oxygen uptake (V̇O2) 20-fold above rest the numbers are staggering: Each minute the O2 transport system - lungs, cardiovascular, active muscles - transports and utilizes 161 sextillion (10 21) O2 molecules. Leg extension exercise increases the quadriceps muscles' blood flow 100-times; transporting 17 sextillion O2 molecules per kilogram per minute from microcirculation (capillaries) to mitochondria powering their cellular energetics. Within these muscles, the capillary network constitutes a prodigious blood-tissue interface essential to exchange O2 and carbon dioxide requisite for muscle function. In disease, microcirculatory dysfunction underlies the pathophysiology of heart failure, diabetes, hypertension, pulmonary disease, sepsis, stroke and senile dementia. Effective therapeutic countermeasure design demands knowledge of microvascular/capillary function in health to recognize and combat pathological dysfunction. Dated concepts of skeletal muscle capillary (from the Latin capillus meaning 'hair') function prevail despite rigorous data-supported contemporary models; hindering progress in the field for future and current students, researchers and clinicians. Following closely the 100th anniversary of August Krogh's 1920 Nobel Prize for capillary function this Evidence Review presents an anatomical and physiological development of this dynamic field: Constructing a scientifically defensible platform for our current understanding of microcirculatory physiological function in supporting blood-mitochondrial O2 transport. New developments include: 1. Putative roles of red blood cell aquaporin and rhesus channels in determining tissue O2 diffusion. 2. Recent discoveries regarding intramyocyte O2 transport. 3. Developing a comprehensive capillary functional model for muscle O2 delivery-to-V̇O2 matching. 4. Use of kinetics analysis to discriminate control mechanisms from collateral or pathological phenomena.

Spatial Differentiation and Influencing Mechanisms of Farmland Transfer Rents in Mountainous Areas: Evidence from Chongqing and Its Surrounding Areas

This study used Chongqing, a municipality in mountainous southwest China, and its surrounding areas as a case study to explore the spatial differentiation of farmland transfer rents in mountainous areas, with the aim of serving as a theoretical and practical reference to realize the value of farmland, ensure regional food security, and promote stable and sound development of the farmland transfer market. In doing so, we applied the GIS spatial analysis method to explore the spatial differentiation and influencing mechanisms of farmland transfer rents in mountainous areas. Our results indicate that farmland transfer rents in mountainous areas have a significant high and low clustering tendency. The high-value areas of farmland transfer rents are mainly located in the downtown area and the west of Chongqing, while the low-value areas are mainly distributed in the Daba Mountains and Wuling Mountains, which are two national contiguous areas of dire poverty. Location and terrain factors are the main driving forces for the spatial differentiation of farmland transfer rents in mountainous areas. Specifically, a 1% increase in farmland mean slope and farmland supply-demand ratio in the study area will lead to a 0.13 and 0.15% decrease in farmland transfer rents, respectively, while a 1% increase in GDP will drive up farmland transfer rents by 0.09%. The policy factor is not significant. The influence of terrain and farmland supply and demand on transfer rents increased from west to east, whereas the influence of traffic location on transfer rents decreased in an outward direction from the southwest of the study area. It is concluded that local governments should objectively view the spatial differentiation of farmland transfer rents in mountainous areas and avoid the blind comparison of transfer rents between regions. Mountainous areas with low transfer rents should focus on increasing the intrinsic value of farmland assets by stimulating effective demand for farmland and improving farming conditions, while mountainous areas with high transfer rents in major grain-producing counties should be wary of their impact on grain production to ensure regional food security.

Government Capital Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nepal

This paper explores the short-run and long-run causal relationship between government expenditure, labor force, gross investment, aggregate consumption, and economic growth of Nepal. The gross domestic product (Y), capital expenditure (K), population (L), gross investment (GI), and aggregate consumption (CO) have been used to find the causal relationship between government expenditure, and economic growth. The ARDL cointegration technique confirms a long-run association among the variables. The study revealed that capital expenditure, labor force participation, gross investment, and aggregate consumption all are the long-run driver of the economic growth of Nepal. These findings tell that efficient and timely allocation and use of capital expenditure, expansion of public as well private investment, and increased aggregate consumption matters for economic growth. The study also shows the existence of unidirectional causation from capital expenditure to growth and bidirectional relationship between other variables. The findings support Keynesian thought of government expenditure and economic growth. The regulatory and policymakers should focus on expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate capital formation, efficient productive investment, boost effective demand, and enhance long-run economic growth in Nepal.

Smallholder farmers' willingness to pay for two‐wheel tractor‐based mechanisation services in Zambia and Zimbabwe

AbstractMechanisation is back among top development policy priorities for transforming African smallholder agriculture. Yet previous and ongoing efforts ubiquitously suffer from lack of scientific information on end‐user effective demand for different types of mechanical innovations to inform public investment or business development programmes. We assess smallholder farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for two‐wheel tractor (2WT)‐based ripping, direct seeding and transportation using a random sample of 2800 smallholder households in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Applying the Becker–DeGroot–Marschak Mechanism (BDM) experimental auctions, we find that at least 50% of sample households in Zambia and Zimbabwe were willing to pay more than the prevailing market prices for ripping. In nominal terms, sample households in Zimbabwe were willing to pay more than those in Zambia for the different services. Empirical results suggest that wealth is the strongest driver of WTP for tillage and seeding 2WT services while labour availability and using animal draft power reduce it. These findings imply a need to (i) raise awareness and create demand for 2WT‐based services in an inclusive business manner that does not create perverse incentives and (ii) better target mechanisation to operations with comparative advantage, using approaches that bundle 2WT‐based and other mechanisation services with asset‐agnostic credit schemes or other interventions meant to overcome asset‐mediated barriers.

Assessing Community Readiness for Payments for Ecosystem Service Schemes for Tropical Primary Forest Protection in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Primary forest conservation is essential for limiting climate change, for meeting conservation objectives, and the Sustainable Development Goals. Schemes that compensate communities for forgone extractive uses are important policy tools, but effective deployment demands an understanding of local deforestation drivers and host communities’ preferences. We use Q-methodology to reveal discourses present in three communities in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our results reveal three factors with a common emphasis on forest conservation and preferences for compensation in the form of social investments, rather than cash. The main contrasts were in attitudes towards farming. The first discourse, we call conservationist—open to ideas, displayed a commitment to learning better practices for community material benefit in service of forest conservation. The second discourse, which demonstrated greater confidence in their capacity to support livelihoods from farming, we call aspirational artisans. The third, which was acutely aware of the impact of their farming on forest conservation, we called passive, conflicted farmers. We also demonstrate an aspiration for the continued development of farming amongst participants, which although still correlated with preferences for forest conservation, may lead to compensation schemes inadvertently stirring future land use tensions if design does not reconcile agricultural development and conservation.

Strong Deflection Gravitational Lensing for the Photons Coupled to the Weyl Tensor in a Conformal Gravity Black Hole

In the present paper, strong deflection gravitational lensing is studied in a conformal gravity black hole. With the help of geometric optics limits, we have formulated the light cone conditions for the photons coupled to the Weyl tensor in a conformal gravity black hole. It is explicitly found that strong deflection gravitational lensing depends on the coupling with the Weyl tensor, the polarization directions, and the black hole configuration parameters. We have applied the results of the strong deflection gravitational lensing to the supermassive black holes SgrA* and M87* and studied the possibility of encountering quantum improvement. It is not practicable to recognize similar black holes through the strong deflection gravitational lensing observables in the near future, except for the possible size of the black hole’s shadow. We also notice that by directly adopting the constraint of the measured shadow of M87*, the quantum effect demands immense care.

Through a Keynesian Theory to Analyze the Economic Impact under the Outbreak of COVID-19 in China

With the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese economy was hit severely and this disease brought a significant challenge for China. This was particularly the case for unemployment, the variation of GDP and the shrinking of small and medium-sized enterprises. The objective of this research is to investigate the impacts of COVID-19 in China, evaluating economic approaches being applied for different countries and point out the suitable method to boost the recovery of the Chinese economy from economic depression. The study used the fundamental concept of Keynesian theory to conclude the most effective approaches and showed that according to Keynesian theory, the Chinese government should implement expansionary policies to sustain economic growth by raising effective demand and solving unemployment problems. Therefore, the Chinese government can encourage the whole economy through fiscal and monetary policy.

Analysis of the application of neoliberalism and monetarism in the modern economic system

The author of a scientific publication examines the transformation of the situation in the economic field as part of the transition from the dominance of Keynesian theory to the development of alternative directions, in particular neoliberalism and monetarism. The author relies on the fact that the decline of the Keynesian approach was associated with an increase in the burden on the budget, which gave impetus to the development of theories that brought to light theories based on the free market and competition. Particular attention is paid to the provisions of such economists as M. Friedman, F. Hayek, L. Mises. The author emphasizes that M. Friedman refutes the theory of effective demand, explaining that there is a strong relationship between the change in the money supply and the commodity market. The author also comes to conclusions about the purpose of the postulates of early monetarism, which was to reduce the tax and other burden on business and the population, which should have a positive impact on other economic indicators. The author notes that in the context of these theories, the state is able to have a positive effect on the market, but only in the short term, so the instrument of state support and regulation must be used very carefully so as not to disrupt the functionality of market mechanisms. The author concludes that, from the standpoint of neoliberalism, the state distribution of profits and incomes does not make any sense, it only deprives the incentive for entrepreneurial activity, which can increase unemployment and cause an economic recession in the state, while in a situation of free enterprise, the listed there are no difficulties.

Analysis of social–Psychological factors and financial incentives in demand response and residential energy behavior

Introduction: Demand response programs are promising approaches to balance supply and demand and reduce or shift peak hour loads. However, the impacts of residents’ behavioral patterns and social–psychological factors on these programs are poorly understood.Method: We used an extended model of the theory of planned behavior to understand how social–psychological factors, demographics, and household characteristics influence the demand response behaviors (i.e., adjusting A/C and shifting the time of use) of 826 US residents who participated in our study.Results: We found that low-income households (43.7%) reported as more likely to respond to the behavior of raising A/C thermostat settings when no one is home compared to higher-income residents. Thermal comfort needs (β = 0.34) and participants’ age (β = 0.02) increased the financial incentives requested to accept higher A/C temperatures while someone is home. Thermal comfort needs (β = 0.36) and energy-saving habits (β = −0.11) are the significant predictors of increased incentives requested for higher A/C temperatures when no one is home. Older adults request higher financial incentives for shifting washer and dryer usage than younger residents. Finally, attitudes toward energy saving are the strongest predictor of electricity curtailment behavioral intention, followed by perceived behavioral control, subjective norms, cost and environmental concerns, and energy-saving habits.Discussion: This finding suggests the potential of social–psychological variables in shaping energy consumption behaviors. This study provides insights for designing effective demand response programs and broadly analyzing energy behavioral patterns.

Capacity and saturation of the food market in Ukraine

In a market economy, the optimal supply of food to the population depends entirely on the development of the food market. To establish indicators of rational consumption, it is important to determine the capacity and saturation of the food market. The purpose of this study was to highlight the current proportions of supply and demand in the Ukrainian food market, establish the correspondence of the capacity and saturation of the food market to rational consumption parameters. The study used dialectical method of cognition of market processes and a systematic approach, analytical generalizations, statistical comparison, constructive-calculation, tabular, and abstract-logical method. The food market is recognized as aggregative, as it includes several interconnected markets for crop production, livestock production, and industrial processing. The study investigated the specific features of the formation of demand for food with low purchasing power of the population. The market capacity was established – standard with minimum and rational consumption standards and real. The latter was almost 30% lower than the calculated one based on rational norms, which indicates additional opportunities to replenish the income of the agricultural sector. It was found that even with an increase in effective demand of the population, the improvement in consumption is levelled due to rising food prices. A prominent level of self-sufficiency of the country in food products (excluding fish and fish products) was established, and a considerable saturation of the market with essential products – potatoes, vegetables, eggs, butter, and bread. The study results should be used in the formation of a target program for the development of the food market for a long-term period aimed primarily at rational provision of food products to the population of Ukraine

Investigating the Coupling of Supply and Demand for Urban Blue and Green Spaces’ Cooling Effects in Shandong, China

It is of great significance to determine the level of demand for thermal environment regulation and the availability of blue–green spaces for thermal environment regulation to alleviate the effects of urban heat islands. Taking Shandong Province, China, as the study area, combined multi–source remote sensing data are used in this study to construct the index system of cold island supply capacity (CIS) and the cold island demand level (CID). We use the methods of spatial regression, quadrant division, and coupling coordination degree to analyze the correlation, matching status, and the level of coordinated development between the supply capacity and demand for the cooling effect. We also explore the change law and spatial characteristics of the blue–green spaces’ cooling effects supply and demand matching. Results show that: (1) The CIS and the CID are significantly negatively correlated and spatially heterogeneous in distribution, with a significant spatial spillover effect. (2) The dominant type of supply and demand is one of low supply and high demand, which means that the supply and demand for cool islands’ cooling effect are unbalanced, with significant problems of spatial mismatch and quantitative imbalance. (3) The coupling between supply capacity and demand level is on the verge of becoming dysfunctional because the uneven distribution of urban buildings, population, and blue–green spaces reduce the coupling between supply and demand levels. This research can provide a new perspective and scientific basis for the study of the cooling effects of blue and green spaces and the mitigation of the heat island effect in densely populated urban centers.

Farmers' willingness to invest in mechanized maize shelling and potential financial benefits: Evidence from Tanzania

AbstractSub‐Saharan Africa has the least mechanized agriculture in the world due to various reasons including low effective demand at farm level, low policy attention, and ineffective mechanization strategies. However, the situation has changed since recently in favor of mechanization while limited empirical evidence is available on how mechanization can be enhanced among smallholder farmers. In this study, we explore farmers' willingness to invest in mechanization services by considering the group business model (GBM) and the individual business model (IBM) of mechanized maize shelling in Tanzania. Moreover, we analyze the potential financial benefit for those farmers who would like to invest in mechanized maize shelling. We use data mainly collected through a household survey and apply econometric and mathematical models for analysis. The results show that about 65% of the sample farmers are willing to invest in mechanized maize shelling within the GBM, while about 10% of them would like to do so within the IBM. Moreover, the results show that investment in mechanized maize shelling is profitable considering both small‐scale (4 and 7 HP engine capacity) machines and medium‐scale (16 and 20 HP engine capacity) machines. The results show that expanding agricultural mechanization in Tanzania through investments coming from smallholder farmers, as also experienced elsewhere, is possible while they suggest that policy instruments such as targeted loan programs, entrepreneurial and technical trainings, and smart subsidies or tax exemptions are important to encourage and enable smallholder farmers to participate in the mechanization supply chain. [EconLit Citations: Q120, Q130, D250].

Analysis of consumption characteristics of urban and rural residents in Chongqing from the perspective of epidemic

The outbreak of COVID-19 at the end of 2019, which spread to the whole world, has had a significant impact on the Chinese and even the global economy, and the lack of effective domestic demand has become a real problem for China's economic development. In this paper, the ELES model is constructed, and the consumption data of urban and rural residents are obtained from the Chongqing Statistical yearbook using multiple linear regression fitting. According to the data, descriptive analysis is made on the consumption of urban and rural residents, and the development rules and characteristics are analyzed. The consumption characteristics and differences between urban and rural residents are analyzed in the aspects of transportation, communication, education, entertainment and medical care. The results can provide some theoretical basis for the government's future economic measures.

Benefits of Eccentric Training with Emphasis on Demands of Daily Living Activities and Feasibility in Older Adults: A Literature Review.

Aging is associated with a decline in physical capabilities and several other health-related conditions. One of the most common age-related processes is sarcopenia. Sarcopenia is usually accompanied with a decline in skeletal muscle mass and physical functioning. A decrease in these markers usually impacts basic daily living activities (DLAs), which become somewhat harder to accomplish for older individuals. Several research studies have examined the demands of DLA in older individuals with results indicating that activities such as walking, sitting, standing, stair climbing, stair descending, and running generate high demands on older adults. The forces that act on individuals are in most cases equal or multiple times higher relative to their body mass. For instance, it was reported that the GRF (ground reaction force) during stair descent ranged from 1.43 to 1.50 of BW (body weight) in an older population. Even higher demands were recorded during other related activities. These demands of DLA raise the question of appropriate rehabilitative or training management procedures. During the past decades, an eccentric form of resistance training gained popularity due to its effectiveness and lower metabolic demands, which seems to be an appropriate method to develop and maintain a basic level of strength capabilities in higher age. Multiple factors of eccentric training have been examined including modality of exercise, intensity, frequency, and safety of the elderly. Several modalities of eccentric exercise have been shown to be effective including traditional methods, as well as machine-based ones, with or without using some equipment. The studies included in this review varied in intensity from low to high; however, the most frequently used intensity was ≥50% of the maximal eccentric strength during two or three eccentric sessions per week. Importantly, the prevalence of injury of older adults appears to have been low to none, highlighting the safety of this approach. In summary, eccentric training prescriptions for older adults should consider the demands of DLA and the characteristics of the elderly for appropriate management of training recommendations.

IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES ON INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

The major goal for government expenditure policies according to Keynes is to improve the effective demand which is aimed at increasing industrial output in developing countries like Nigeria. Therefore, this paper is an attempt to examine the impact of government expenditures on industrial output in Nigeria. Thus, the methodology of this paper is the time series data method which were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin 2021 and the study also employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) because the data were co-integrated at order 1(1) and the Johansen co-integration test result revealed that there are two (2) co-integrating equations. The R-Square of 98 percent suggests that government expenditures have a positive relationship with industrial output in Nigeria. Specifically, the result revealed that government capital expenditures have a positive and insignificant impact on industrial output in Nigeria. However, the government's recurrent expenditure was said to have a positive and significant impact on industrial output in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommended that government should review the recurrent expenditures to be real sector and industrial output is driven to increase the impact of industrial output in Nigeria. Similarly, the government should design a mechanism to track the government capital expenditures in Nigeria to ensure that projects are industrial driven especially the infrastructural projects for industrial output in Nigeria.

Yeast Carotenoids: Cost-Effective Fermentation Strategies for Health Care Applications

Carotenoid production from oleaginous red yeast has been considered as a safe alternative to chemically synthesized carotenoids commonly used in the food industry, since plant-based carotenoids are expensive and an irregular source for obtaining pigments. This is a summative review on the factors affecting carotenoid production, cost-effective production strategies using various inexpensive feedstock, metabolic engineering, and strain improvisation. The review specially highlights the various potential applications of carotenoids as anti-microbial, anti-viral, antioxidant, anti-cancerous, anti-malarial agents, etc. The importance of such natural and easily available resources for prevention, evasion, or cure of emerging diseases and their plausible nutraceutical effect demands exhaustive research in this area.

Strategies for the development of industry 4.0 and the formation of effective demand

The article is devoted to the development of industry 4.0 and the formation of effective demand. The authors are convinced that industry 4.0 is essentially a strategy of intelligent factories, i.e. the process of managing the production chain is carried out in real time using information and communication technologies, as well as the installation of robots. Effective demand for goods depends not only on the income of the buyer, but also on the prices of innovative products that are structurally formed by industry 4.0. It is proved that the main reason for the economic constraints of the development of industry 4.0 is the low effective demand for high-tech products. Therefore, the Russian industry must move to new types of economic activity and ensure the growth of productivity potential through the use of smart technologies, collaborative space, the formation of intelligent operational units and the digitalization process. Achieving sustainable long-term growth will depend on the ability to build a stronger domestic demand base and a balancing strategy: customer satisfaction and cost savings. The authors, based on international experience, prove the feasibility of forming a differentiated core, i.e. an effective combination of products and services formed by industry 4.0 while simultaneously integrating cyber-physical systems and the Internet of Things, as well as services. The analysis shows the huge growth potential of industry 4.0 as the revenue growth of leading international companies is estimated in the range of 8.1–13.6 % in the next five years. At the same time, an annual increase in customer spending on products is projected by 2.4 %. The conducted research shows that industry 4.0 allows for an annual increase in efficiency by an average of 3.3 % due to increased productivity, energy efficiency and resource efficiency. The authors are convinced that such a setup is impossible without the accumulation of capital and investments, which are the main factors contributing to economic growth and sustainable solvency of customers.