Effective Climate Change Adaptation Research Articles

Addressing inadequacies of sectoral coordination and local capacity building in Indonesia for effective climate change adaptation

This article aims to contribute to effective climate change adaptation (CCA) in Indonesia. Located in a volatile extreme weather region, it is the largest archipelagic country, and is among the five countries with the highest number of natural disasters. Although Indonesia signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998 and ratified it in 2004, CCA remains embryonic despite recent changes to facilitate climate policy. Problematic areas include inadequate sectoral policy coordination across government agencies and jurisdictional levels, and inadequate local capacity building. This article addresses these areas both because Indonesia has to date paid little attention to them and because of their significance to other developing countries. To achieve a better understanding of the inadequacies to inform learning and development on CCA policy, a policy analysis was conducted that included 25 interviews with Indonesian policy actors. Key findings are that for effective adaptation, sectoral coordination needs to first address a number of inadequacies in governance and practice inadequacies to facilitate local mainstreaming of adaptation. In turn, local capacity building needs to address inadequacies of resource support, leadership, climate change awareness, government–community partnerships, vulnerability assessment, and inclusion of local knowledge and communities in decision-making.

(Mis)communicating climate change? Why online adaptation databases may fail to catalyze adaptation action

Over the last decade a plethora of action‐oriented research projects has been conducted in developing countries, exploring how to effectively adapt to the anticipated impacts of climate change. Many intergovernmental agencies and development organizations have chosen to disseminate their research results via online databases. It is unclear, however, whether these databases are useful in terms of actual adaptation planning and implementation. A systematic review of online databases has found at least 64 databases and tools online related to climate change adaptation. Despite the abundance of databases, this analysis reveals that the existing body of online databases generally lack the structure and mechanics to identify, extract, and synthesize both effective and ineffective climate change adaptation practices, projects, programs, and policies. Even relatively basic information, such as identification of projects’ projected versus actual costs is absent, which are crucial decision‐making criteria particularly in developing country contexts where resource constraints are significant. In this paper we evaluate these online tools with a focus on identifying features that potentially could contribute to knowledge sharing and successful exchange of climate change adaptation projects and practices within a developing country context. We conclude the paper with recommendations for how to improve efforts to communicate climate change research, such as more nuanced needs assessments of potential users of databases. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:600–613. doi: 10.1002/wcc.401This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptation Climate and Development > Knowledge and Action in Development Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Knowledge and Practice

Tropical Peat and Peatland Development in the Floodplains of the Greater Pamba Basin, South-Western India during the Holocene.

Holocene sequences in the humid tropical region of Kerala, South-western (SW) India have preserved abundance of organic—rich sediments in the form of peat and its rapid development in a narrow time frame towards Middle Holocene has been found to be significant. The sub—coastal areas and flood plains of the Greater Pamba Basin have provided palaeorecords of peat indicating that the deposits are essentially formed within freshwater. The combination of factors like stabilized sea level and its subsequent fall since the Middle Holocene, topographic relief and climatic conditions led to rapid peat accumulation across the coastal lowlands. The high rainfall and massive floods coupled with a rising sea level must have inundated > 75% of the coastal plain land converting it into a veritable lagoon—lake system that eventually led to abrupt termination of the forest ecosystem and also converted the floodplains into peatland where accumulation of peat almost to 2.0–3.0 m thickness in coastal lowlands and river basins during the shorter interval in the Middle Holocene. Vast areas of the coastal plains of Kerala have been converted into carbon rich peatland during the Middle Holocene and transforming the entire coastal stretch and associated landforms as one of the relatively youngest peatlands in the extreme southern tip of India. Unlike the uninterrupted formation of peatlands of considerable extent during the Holocene in Southeast Asia, the south Peninsular Indian region has restricted and short intervals of peatlands in the floodplains and coastal lowlands. Such a scenario is attributed to the topographic relief of the terrain and the prevailing hydrological regimes and environmental conditions as a consequence of monsoon variability since Middle Holocene in SW India. Considering the tropical coastal lowlands and associated peatlands are excellent repositories of carbon, they are very important for regional carbon cycling and habitat diversity. The alarming rate of land modification and development is destabilizing these carbon pools resulting in large scale carbon emissions to the atmosphere and loss of low-latitude peat palaeorecords. Therefore, these palaeorecords are to be conserved and addressed for better understanding and utilizing the carbon pool for effective climate change adaptation. This communication is the first attempt of addressing the peat formation and peatland development during the Holocene from the tropical region of Peninsular India.

Climate change perception and choice of adaptation strategies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its adverse effects, identify major adaptation strategies used by farmers and analyze the factors that influence the choice of adaptation strategy by smallholder farmers in eastern Ethiopia. Design/methodology/approach – The study was based on a cross-sectional survey of 296 sample households selected from three districts in east Ethiopia. Data were collected with the aid of a semi-structured questionnaire and review of literature, documents and databases. Findings – The study provides empirical evidence that majority of farmers in the study area are aware of climate change patterns and their adverse effect on income, food security, diversity, forest resources, food prices and crop and livestock diseases. In response to these adverse effects, major adaptation strategies used by farmers include cultivating different crops, planting different crop varieties, changing planting dates, use of soil and water conservation techniques, conservation agriculture practices and engaging in non-farm income activities. Choice of adaptation strategies are influenced by gender of household head, household size, farm size, distance from market and number of farm plots. Practical implications – The study suggests that developing more effective climate change adaptation strategies need support from the government. Such an effort needs provision of the necessary resources such as credit, information and extension services on climate change adaptation strategies and technologies, and investing in climate smart and resilient projects. Originality/value – The study adopts multivariate probit model that models farmers’ simultaneous adaptation choice behavior which has been rarely addressed by previous researches.

Climate Change and the Bay of Bengal: Evolving Geographies of Fear and Hope

Effective climate change adaptation and mitigation require a transnational response. The failure of countries to reach an international agreement on specific strategies to avoid “dangerous climate change” has renewed interest in the geopolitics of climate change. Bosnjakovic (2012) has identified two approaches that are employed in the literature: “the actor-related approach analyses the positioning of states and interest groups, which develop strategies on coping with climate change; the other approach addresses processes and problem areas emerging in the geographic space as a consequence of, or linked to climate change” (p. 629). In Climate Change and the Bay of Bengal: Evolving geographies of fear and hope, Chaturvedi and Sakhuja (2015) further our understanding of the geopolitics of climate change through the latter approach.

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in the BS Agriculture Curriculum in Selected Commission on Higher Education Centers of Excellence in Agriculture

The agriculture sector is one of the major areas much affected by the current climate change risk. The Higher Education Institution (HEIs) specifically the SUCs centers of excellence in agriculture plays significant role to limit or lessen the impacts of climate change by promoting leadership in developing effective climate change adaptation strategies and creating public awareness. This study was conducted to assess the level of integration of climate change adaptation (CCA) in teaching courses under the Bachelor of Science in Agriculture (BSA) curriculum; determine the extent of influence of individual, organizational, external factors in the integration; and develop strategies how to mainstream CCA in the BSA curriculum program. Descriptive research utilizing survey and key informants interview (KII) of the deans and administrators were used to gather necessary data. A total of 103 faculties and 8 college administrators including deans from the four selected university became the respondents. The overall perceived knowledge, student needs to mainstream CCA in BSA is high. Majority of the respondents agreed that climate change adaptation principle is reflected to their organization mission. Minimal level of (CCA) integration observed among the agricultural colleges CHED Centers of Excellence. There is minimum integration of CCA in fundamental agriculture courses offered under BSA curriculum across the participating SUC-CA. Since there are existing legal basis such as; RA 9512 or the National Environmental Awareness and Education Act of 2008, section (3) which focus integration of environmental education in school curricula at all levels, whether public or private. RA 9729 or Climate Change ACT 2010. The respondents of this study from participating SUC–CA centers of excellence in agriculture believed that the specific policy from CHED through a circular memorandum order CMO mandating the SUC’s to re-examine the existing BSA curriculum under CMO#14 and develop strategies on how CCA will be integrated /mainstream on the course program is effective approach in support to the result of this study.

Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy.

Water resource management in a variable and changing climate: hypothetical case study to explore decision making under uncertainty

This paper investigates what information water resource managers think they need to make decisions on climate change adaptation. This is achieved through a hypothetical case study where participants, all actual water resource managers or in research, practitioner or administration roles linked to Australian water resources management, were given theoretical future climate scenarios and asked to make decisions based on the available information. The case study provided useful insights into why there is little evidence of effective climate change adaptation being implemented despite significant advances in climate impacts and adaptation science over the last decade. It was found that in order to bridge the gap between climate change adaptation recommendations and successful implementation at practitioner level there is a demand for: improved translation, communication and packaging of existing climate science information into sector- and location-specific impacts (e.g. hydrological interpretation of climate model rainfall projections and the associated uncertainties); attribution of historical and future hydroclimatic changes (e.g. not just what has happened or is going to happen but why and the confidence and likelihoods surrounding that); quantification of costs and benefits of any decision; and understanding of the social, political, and environmental contexts and level of acceptance associated with any decision.

Meaningful Measurement for Community‐Based Adaptation

AbstractEvidence indicates ongoing tensions over effective climate change adaptation measurement. Focusing on community‐based adaptation (CBA), we stress that some of these tensions stem from a lack of transparency around the knowledge and learning needs of different stakeholders engaged in CBA investments. Drawing on a participatory assessment of stakeholder information needs and appropriate scales required for effective monitoring and evaluation (M&E) for CBA, this article presents a new M&E for CBA framework. The framework identifies four levels at which M&E is to be undertaken by CBA practitioners and associated project stakeholders: participatory M&E at community level; M&E at individual project level and comparison across multiple project sites; M&E of capacity of institutions implementing CBA; and M&E of community of practice. The proposed framework tailors its M&E approaches according to these levels. By moving beyond the existing dominant donor‐driven M&E perspective, we argue that this more nuanced approach enhances the usefulness of M&E by ensuring that the accountability of stakeholders engaged in CBA landscapes is legitimate across multiple scales. The framework is applicable for M&E of general development practice, as well as the climate change adaptation and resilience remit.

The potential of Indonesian mangrove forests for global climate change mitigation

Indonesian mangrove carbon stocks are estimated to be 1,083 ± 378 MgC ha−1. In the past three decades Indonesia has lost 40% of its 2.9 Mha of mangroves; this is estimated to have resulted in annual CO2-equivalent emissions of 0.07–0.21 Pg. Mangroves provide a wide range of ecosystem services, including nutrient cycling, soil formation, wood production, fish spawning grounds, ecotourism and carbon (C) storage1. High rates of tree and plant growth, coupled with anaerobic, water-logged soils that slow decomposition, result in large long-term C storage. Given their global significance as large sinks of C, preventing mangrove loss would be an effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy. It has been reported that C stocks in the Indo-Pacific region contain on average 1,023 MgC ha−1 (ref. 2). Here, we estimate that Indonesian mangrove C stocks are 1,083 ± 378 MgC ha−1. Scaled up to the country-level mangrove extent of 2.9 Mha (ref. 3), Indonesia’s mangroves contained on average 3.14 PgC. In three decades Indonesia has lost 40% of its mangroves4, mainly as a result of aquaculture development5. This has resulted in annual emissions of 0.07–0.21 Pg CO2e. Annual mangrove deforestation in Indonesia is only 6% of its total forest loss6; however, if this were halted, total emissions would be reduced by an amount equal to 10–31% of estimated annual emissions from land-use sectors at present. Conservation of carbon-rich mangroves in the Indonesian archipelago should be a high-priority component of strategies to mitigate climate change.

Food security in the context of climate change and bioenergy production in Tanzania: methods, tools and applications

A dramatic population growth is projected for the least developed countries of the world (United Nations 2013), which will also suffer disproportionally from ongoing and predicted climate disruptions (IPCC 2013). More frequently occurring extreme weather events have led to yield losses and decreasing cattle populations—aggravating an already precarious situation and leading to critical food shortages. Food security is a function of food availability, food accessibility, food stability and food utilisation (FAO 2002; Ziervogel and Ericksen 2010). Climate change and population growth are seen as key drivers of food insecurity severely affecting farming systems (Muller et al. 2011; Haberl et al. 2011, Strengers et al. 2010), as well as the global energy demand and therefore induced biofuel production (Von Braun 2007a), changing trade patterns through liberalisation and globalisation (Von Braun 2007b; Lotze-Campen et al. 2010), and the state of health of the population (10–20 % AIDS rate in East Africa). Cause– effect chains, in which food security is involved (droughts– diseases–health–human capital), are also drivers over large regions (Ziervogel and Ericksen 2010). Most of these drivers do not only lead to a productivity decline, but also often result in a degraded natural resource base and declining soil fertility (Graef et al. 2000). Rapidly changing framework conditions (Muller 2011) require a thorough understanding of integrated food systems and targeted incorporation of region-specific innovations. However, creating a sustainable road map for the future is a huge challenge for a variety of reasons. Mainly rainfed, subsistence-oriented smallholder farming systems are not only extremely vulnerable to a changing and unpredictable climate, but often also lack access to external inputs, institutional support and adaptive capacity. Moreover, food insecurity is often regarded as insufficient food availability which is only part of the picture. Instead of solely focussing on boosting crop yields, the highly complex state of vulnerability needs to be addressed encompassing economic and sociopolitical factors (Misselhorn 2004; Pretty et al. 2006). Also, increased bioenergy production has fuelled land use conflicts and lead to largescale deforestation due to the growing international demand for biofuels. Biomass is still the primary source of energy in developing countries—important for income, energy supply, poverty reduction and self-sufficiency of rural communities (Harvey and Pilgrim 2011; Mitchell 2011; Tilman et al. 2009). Effective climate change adaptation and food security intervention strategies need to pursue a holistic approach and an array of objectives: social and economic viability, soil health, minimum use of scarce water and fossil energy, affordable and low external inputs, improvement in infrastructure and market access, as well as conservation of natural resources and biodiversity. To achieve positive impacts and sustainable solutions, international research projects increasingly focus on integrated in-depth analysis of the food system itself and its core elements: (a) natural and human resources, (b) the use of Disclaimer The views expressed are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission.

Performance of a Rain Barrel Sharing Network under Climate Change

Rain barrels can be technically shared through social practices or mutual agreement between individual households. This study proposes the evaluation system for a rain barrel sharing network (RBSN) considering three performance criteria of reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, under plausible climate change scenarios. First, this study shows how the system can be improved in terms of the performance criteria using historical daily rainfall data based on the storage-reliability-yield relationship. This study then examined how the benefits from RBSN are affected by climate change after 100 years. Three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2) and three global circulation models were used for this purpose. The results showed that the reliability and vulnerability are improved due to sharing and their improvements become larger under climate change conditions. In contrast, the resiliency reduces slightly due to sharing and its reduction is attenuated under climate change conditions. In particular, vulnerability will be reduced significantly under climate change. These results suggest that the sharing of various water resources systems can be an effective climate change adaptation strategy that reduces vulnerability and increases the reliability of the system.

Testing a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) approach to select climate change adaptation actions to enhance wetland sustainability: The case of Poyang Lake region in China

The necessity of mainstreaming climate adaptation strategies or policies into natural resource management plans has been recognized by the UNFCCC. The IPCC AR5 report suggests a growing demand for research to provide information for a deeper and more useful understanding of climate adaptation options, and indicates a lack of effective methods to meet this increasing demand of policymakers. In this respect, a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) approach is presented in this paper to provide an effective means to mainstream wetland climate change adaptation in rural sustainable development strategies, and thus to reduce climate vulnerability and to enhance rural community livelihood. The PIA approach includes a series of research activities required to assess climate impacts on wetland ecosystems, and to prioritize adaptation responses. A range of adaptation options that address key aspects of the wetland ecosystem resilience and concerns are evaluated against community based on sustainable development indicators. The PIA approach is able to identify desirable adaptation options which can then be implemented to improve wetland ecosystem health and to enhance regional sustainable development in a changing climate.For illustration purpose, the PIA was applied in a case study in Poyang Lake (PYL) region, a critical wetland and water ecosystem in central China with important international biodiversity linkages, and a locale for key policy experiments with ecosystem rehabilitation. The PIA was used to facilitate the integration of wetland climate change adaptation in rural sustainable development actions with multi-stakeholders participation. In particular, the case shows how the PIA can be designed and implemented to select effective and practical climate change adaptation options to enhance ecosystem services management and to reduce resource use conflicts and rural poverty. Worked in partnership with multi-stakeholders and assisted with a multi-criteria decision making tool, the case identified alternative desirable adaptation measures which could be used to deal with climate risks. Several desirable adaptation options were implemented as pilot projects to showcase the effectiveness of these measures which resulted in benefits to the well-being and productivity of all people living in the region.It should be noted that while the case study evaluated adaptation policies or options to climate change, it was not completed in terms of discussing in detail all the key components of the PIA approach. However, the case study represents the state-of-the-arts research in climate change impact assessment and adaptation option evaluation, particularly in linking with wetland ecosystem sustainability. Findings of the case study have indicated that the potential effects of climate change on wetland sustainability are quite significant. The case has also identified adaptation measures considered by stakeholders to be potentially effective for reducing vulnerability of wetland ecosystems. It is clear that wetland ecosystem sustainability goals will be unachievable without mainstreaming adaptation measures into wetland conservation and health programs under a changing climate.

Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages.

Effective climate change adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation

Effective Climate Change (CC) adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation have been heavily discussed recently. Currently, there are ∼650 CC adaptation recommendations such as managing healthy vegetation on slopes (Veech, 2003), terrestrial and inland water systems (Settele et al., 2014), landscape restoration efforts (Pradhan and Shrestha, 2007), creation and protection of climate refuges (Lindenmayer et al., 2010), wildlife conservation (Mawdsley et al., 2009) among several others (Grabherr, 2009; Khattak et al., 2010). However, they are vague, lack specific solutions with limited analysis of significant benefits, advantages and disadvantages. Over the last few years, I have been developing a database which critically evaluates a variety of CC adaptation strategies, for several biodiversity conservation scenarios. After performing extensive analysis of the existing recommendations, and comparing them against the database that I have been populating, I have critically identified and analyzed 13 effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation that confer significant ecological benefits, and therefore, I discuss them here as most effective. They are segmented under [1] identification and analysis of existing stressors, [2] initiation of strategic zoning of land uses, [3] better preparation for major disturbances, [4] identification and designation of reserves, and [5] increased communication of knowledge to stakeholders. Intended benefits of such adaptation strategies include [a] improved capacity of decision makers to adapt to CC; [b] ability to adapt CC with specific reference to the interactions between ecosystems, communities and populations; [c] ability to device most appropriate adaptation strategies for different CC scenarios; [d] increased flow of communication; [e] ability to device proactive adaptive strategies for different habitat; [f] establish cross-national collaboration among the organizations; [g]ability to develop guidelines for adapting to CC that is specific for regions prone to extremities of stress, and [h] quantify environmental susceptibility against adaptive capacity, for effective biodiversity conservation (see Table 1).

Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries.

Ecologically sustainable development in broader retrospect and prospect: evaluating national framework policies against climate adaptation imperatives

This article revisits four Australian framework policies with implications for ecologically sustainable development to consider lessons for climate change adaptation. The competition, disaster resilience, sustainable development and water policies examined underline the difficulty in developing and implementing effective policy frameworks. We find that to succeed, a national policy in this federation needs: a coalition of stakeholders advocating for their implementation; medium to long-term bipartisan support; a focus on a perceived urgent national issue; significant socio-economic benefits; a focus on a limited number of core principles and systemic legislative reform with incremental implementation over many years; the allocation by the federal government of substantial funds for state implementation; requirements to report to the Council of Australian Governments; and support from central government agencies rather than marginalisation in the environment portfolio. These qualities are not inherent in the 1992 National Strategy for Ecologically Sustainable Development and this explains why it is now moribund. These findings suggest that it will be particularly hard to develop and difficult to implement an effective national climate change adaptation policy.

Assessing Weather Forecasting Needs of Smallholder Farmers for Climate Change Adaptation in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, climate change is set to hit the agricultural sector adversely and cause considerable negative impacts particularly for smallholder farmers. Weather information is one of the requirements for effective climate change adaptation in Ethiopia, where Agriculture is the back bone of the economy. This study made during 2011/12 investigates whether smallholder farmers, development agents and organizations in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia have access to weather information and consequently use it in their agricultural activities to overcome adverse impacts of climate change. For this study, data were collected and analyzed from 200 randomly selected households, 34 development agents and 18 experts of different organizations in four districts (Meki, Melkassa, Miesso and Ziway) representing the same agro-ecological settings in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. The result revealed that the adaptation capacity of farmers in using weather information are constrained by language problems, difficulty in understanding forecast terminology, absence of a center for coordination and downscaling weather information at local level and inconsistency in the time of information provision were the common problems identified in the study area. A new weather information delivery system is proposed which enables effective and location and purpose specific weather information delivery to farming communities and other stakeholders in the agricultural sector.

P-graph approach for GDP-optimal allocation of resources, commodities and capital in economic systems under climate change-induced crisis conditions

Climate change impacts may manifest via multiple pathways, often leading to a shortage of resources, reduction in production capacities, or reduction in available labor inputs that are vital for economic activities. Effective climate change adaptation strategies are needed to determine the optimal allocation of scarce resources, commodities or capital under crisis conditions to minimize the economic consequences. In such cases, it is necessary to account for structural properties of economic systems to ensure that rational distribution policies are implemented. Input–output models are used to illustrate interdependencies among economic sectors and to assess both direct and indirect effects of disruptive events. Alternatively, these interdependencies may be exploited for developing effective recovery efforts to minimize the ripple effects of a crisis. In this paper, a process graph representation of the input–output model is developed to generate a rational procedure for the allocation of scarce resources, commodities or capital during crisis conditions. The process graph model is a graph-theoretic approach originally developed for chemical process design applications. The analogous problem structure allows it to be used for the input–output system. The method is demonstrated through several case studies to identify allocation policies geared towards reducing the impact of disruptions attributed to critical resources, commodities, or capital. Results show that depending on the economic structure, the optimal allocation of scarce resources, commodities or capital will satisfy the final demands of some economic sectors and reduce the production capacity of others in order to minimize the reduction of total gross domestic product. Though similar results can be obtained through traditional mathematical programming models, the process graph platform has the advantage to visually present the distribution of scarce resources, commodities or capital within the system. This work is a first attempt to implement the process graph approach in the fields of economics and climate change adaptation. In conclusion, the process graph based approach developed in this work can be used to provide policymakers with insights in developing appropriate risk mitigation plans associated with climate change-induced crisis conditions. Potential applications include both the development of disaster preparedness measures for anticipated disruptions, as well as the implementation of real-time emergency response in the midst of a crisis.

Changing How Earth System Modeling is Done to Provide More Useful Information for Decision Making, Science, and Society

New details about natural and anthropogenic processes are continually added to models of the Earth system, anticipating that the increased realism will increase the accuracy of their predictions. However, perspectives differ about whether this approach will improve the value of the information the models provide to decision makers, scientists, and societies. The present bias toward increasing realism leads to a range of updated projections, but at the expense of uncertainty quantification and model tractability. This bias makes it difficult to quantify the uncertainty associated with the projections from any one model or to the distribution of projections from different models. This in turn limits the utility of climate model outputs for deriving useful information such as in the design of effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies or identifying and prioritizing sources of uncertainty for reduction. Here we argue that a new approach to model development is needed, focused on the delivery of information to support specific policy decisions or science questions. The central tenet of this approach is the assessment and justification of the overall balance of model detail that reflects the question posed, current knowledge, available data, and sources of uncertainty. This differs from contemporary practices by explicitly seeking to quantify both the benefits and costs of details at a systemic level, taking into account the precision and accuracy with which predictions are made when compared to existing empirical evidence. We specify changes to contemporary model development practices that would help in achieving this goal.