Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Research Articles

Assessing the adaptability of maize phenology to climate change: The role of anthropogenic-management practices

Phenology has been regarded as an essential bio-indicator of climate change widely. Quantifying the crop phenological changes caused by climate change and anthropogenic-management practices can help formulate effective climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, the effects of climate change and anthropogenic-management practices on maize phenology (spring, summer, and intercropping maize) in China were distinguished based on historical meteorological and phenological data (1981–2010) of 114 stations using the first-order difference regression method. Our results show: (1) The vegetative growing period of spring and intercropping maize was extended, whereas that of summer maize was shortened. The reproductive growing periods of spring, summer, and intercropping maize were extended. (2) Isolated impacts of climate change shortened the vegetative growing period of spring maize, summer maize, and intercropping maize by 0.19, 1.06, and 3.12 d decade−1, respectively, while the reproductive growing period was extended by 0.19, 0.74, and 3.47 d decade−1, respectively. (3) The contribution of temperature to maize phenology was greater in the northwest inland maize zone and north spring maize zone than in other regions, whereas the contribution of sunshine hours was higher in Huang-Huai Plain intercropping maize zone and the southwest mountain hills maize zone. (4) The effects of anthropogenic-management practices on maize phenological stages such as sowing, emergence, and maturity were generally greater than that of climate change, which has delayed the phenological stages of summer and intercropping maize and extended the growing period of spring maize. The focus should be paid to the emergence, jointing, and milky stages to increase the water use efficiency in the northwest inland maize zone. The findings provide a scientific basis for improving the adaptability of agricultural systems in climate change.

Will social capital affect farmers’ choices of climate change adaptation strategies? Evidences from rural households in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China

Adopting necessary climate change adaptation strategies is an important measure to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. In recent years, social capital has provided a new perspective for analyzing the differences of individual behaviors in the process of climate change adaptation. However, the actual role of social capital in adapting to climate change has not been thoroughly explored. In this paper, we took the high-frigid ecological vulnerable areas on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau as an example. Based on household survey data, we explored the impacts of social networks, social trust and social norms on the choice of climate change adaptation strategies for farmers. Results show that more than 80% of farmers adopt the necessary climate change adaptation strategies. Early transferring/adjusting farming season, artificial grass planting and reducing livestock are their major adaptation strategies. There are significant differences in adopting climate change adaptation strategies between farmers with different social networks, social trust and social norms. The improvements of formal social networks, interpersonal trust, institutional trust, and social norms have significant impacts on the choice of climate change adaptation strategies for farmers. However, the enhancement of informal social networks has a negative impact on it. Finally, we provided suggestions to formulate and implement effective climate change adaptation strategies for areas that sensitive to climate changes.

Climate Change, Cryosphere and Impacts in the Indian Himalayan Region

Climate change and related impacts over the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) remains poorly quantified. The present study reviews observed and modelled changes in the climate, cryosphere and impacts related to hazards, agriculture and ecosystems. An increasing temperature trend over the IHR is reported, which over a few locations is found to be higher than the global average. For precipitation, a complex and inconsistent response with considerable variation in the sign and magnitude of change is observed. Future projections show significant warming. Climate-driven changes and impacts are clearly observed. Snow cover has declined since the 1960s, with an enhanced decreasing trend during the 1990s and variable trends since 2000. Glaciers are losing mass and retreating at varying rates since the early 20th century, with an exception over the Karakoram region. An observed heterogeneous response of glaciers to atmospheric warming is controlled by regional variations in topography, debris cover, circulation and precipitation. Initial assessments of permafrost extent of 1 million km2 across the IHR roughly translate into 14 times the glacier area. Extreme floods represent the most frequent natural disaster in the IHR. Studies have highlighted the significant threat from glacial lakes. Landslides occur in combination with heavy rainfall and flooding, with poor land-use practices such as road-cutting and deforestation being additional drivers. Climate change has also stressed traditional subsistence agriculture and food systems. Improving systematic and coordinated monitoring of climate and related impacts is crucial to contribute to effective climate change adaptation and response strategies.

Indigenous knowledge and climate change adaptation in Africa: a systematic review

Abstract Indigenous people are often considered victims of climate change impact rather than agents of adaptation. Emerging studies in Africa have shifted the attention to indigenous knowledge (IK) to support the development of effective climate change adaptation strategies. This study adopted a systematic literature review methodology to analyse the following: (i) characterization of IK, (ii) potential of IK for knowledge co-production, (iii) IK for climate change causes and impact identification, (iv) IK for formulating and implementing climate change interventions, and (v) documentation and conservation of IK as a resource for climate change adaptation. Results show that there is no consensus on the definition of IK. However, certain identical elements in the available definitions are relevant for contextualization. IK has been useful in the formulation of different climate change adaptation strategies: management practices, early warning, and risk and disaster management. IK has the potential for knowledge co-production relevant for developing robust adaptation measures. Weather and climate services remain a critical area where IK and scientific knowledge (SK) are integrated to enhance forecast reliability and acceptability for local communities. IK is disappearing because of modernization and rural-urban migration, changing landscape and shifting religious beliefs. We suggest the need for more research into the complexity of the IK, proper documentation and storage of IK, and developing effective approaches to integrate IK with SK such that it is well received among researchers and policymakers. While doing this, it is important to maintain the unique features that distinguish IK from other forms of knowledge.

Analysis of gender parity in climate change adaptation actions within Kajiado and Kiambu counties, Kenya

Kenya remains susceptible to climate change due to the dependence on rain-fed agriculture with limited climate change adaptation capacity. This study sought to establish the influence of gender roles on climate change adaptation in two different ago-climatic zones namely, Kajiado East and Central within Kajiado County in the arid part of Kenya and Kabete and Kikuyu within Kiambu County in the highlands region. A survey was conducted on 312 households, six gendered focus group discussions, and fourteen key informant interviews. Frequency analysis was used for descriptive statistics. Chi-square was used to test for statistical associations between variables (p?0.05). The findings showed that Kajiado County has experienced more climate change-related household food insecurity in comparison to Kiambu County. Only 12% of the respondents in Kiambu County indicated having experienced extreme household food insecurity related to climate change. The findings showed 66% of the respondents in Kajiado County considered herd mobility as the most important climate change adaptation strategy while in Kiambu 56% of the respondents considered changing of planting dates as the most important climate change adaptation strategy. Frequency analysis results indicated that there is more gender disparity in Kajiado than Kiambu County as shown by women having the least access and control over household land in both the rainy and extended drought periods. The gender disparity was confirmed by the chi-square test. Chi-square test results for full control of household land during the extended drought season in Kajiado county was (c2= 102.3, df = p? 0.1). It was concluded that the autonomous nature of the adaptation strategies coupled with the influence of gender roles impedes achieving effective climate change adaptation strategies at the household level. There is a need for planned gender-sensitive adaptation actions to cushion local communities against climate change and enhance household food security.

Quantitative Approaches in Adaptation Strategies to Cope with Increased Temperatures Following Climate Change in Potato Crop

Temperatures have a major effect on potato crop growth and yield attributes during the crop growing season. In this study, the SUBSTOR-Potato model was used to simulate the potato crop growth and yield in a sub-tropical region of West Bengal comprising of three districts, namely West Medinipur, Bankura and Birbhum in India. Also, the effect of temperature and planting dates scenario on potato crop growth was evaluated by using 30 years historical weather data of the aforesaid districts. Field experiments were conducted on potato crops of cultivar Kufri Jyoti under two planting dates (10th and 25th of December) and different fertilizer treatments in the years 2013–2014 and 2014–2015, respectively. The statistical results showed the satisfactory performance of the model with an R2 of 0.82 to 0.98 and d-stat of 0.94 to 0.98 for the year 2013–2014 and an R2 of 0.89 to 0.98 and d-stat of 0.97 to 0.98 for the year 2014–2015. Evaluation of planting dates with past 30 years historical data showed planting dates 20th and 30th of November resulted in average higher yield than planting dates 10th, 25th and 30th of December, respectively, in current climate scenario. Furthermore, the study suggests that amending the planting dates is an effective climate change adaptation strategy for reducing the effect of temperature on the yield of a potato crop in the near future.

Fijian adolescents’ understanding and evaluation of climate change: Implications for enabling effective future adaptation

Pacific Island countries are particularly vulnerable to future manifestations of climate change due to high coastline‐to‐land‐area ratios, and high dependence of inhabitants on natural ecosystems. While everyone in the Pacific Islands should participate in climate change adaptation activities, it is the young people, given they are the generation likely to not only bear the burden of climate change, but to lead and live effective climate change adaptation activities and strategies specific to their region, the involvement of youth is critical. Pacific Island youths are often marginalised within traditional decision‐making hierarchies, therefore they are typically excluded from participating in meaningful discussions at community and government levels. Discussions were held with 30 adolescents aged 14–18 years in Fiji to explore knowledge and experiences regarding climate change. Participants revealed their dismay at their inability to talk to family – who they consider are not doing enough – about what they consider as appropriate responses to climate change, recommending the help of an authoritative outsider who could speak to their community leaders and family. Discussions also revealed that Fijian youth could not distinguish between changes in the climate and normal weather events, attesting to the importance of climate‐change education and awareness‐raising efforts within the Pacific Islands more generally.

Utilizing Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Adaptation Options in the Niger River Basin, West Africa

Climate change is estimated to substantially reduce crop yields in Sub-Saharan West Africa by 2050. Yet, a limited number of studies also suggest that several adaptation measures may mitigate the effects of climate change induced yield loss. In this paper, we used AquaCrop, a process-based model developed by the FAO (The Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy), to quantify the risk of climate change on several key cereal crops in the Niger Basin. The crops analyzed include maize, millet, and sorghum under rain fed cultivation systems in various agro-ecological zones within the Niger Basin. We also investigated several adaptation strategies, including changes in the sowing dates, soil nutrient status, and cultivar. Future climate change is estimated using nine ensemble bias-corrected climate model projection results under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP—Representative Concentration Pathway) emissions scenario at mid future time period, 2021/25–2050. The results show that on average, temperature had a larger effect on crop yields so that the increase in precipitation could still be a net loss of crop yield. Our simulated results showed that climate change effects on maize and sorghum yield would be mostly positive (2% to 6% increase) in the Southern Guinea savanna zone while at the Northern Guinea savanna zone it is mostly negative (2% to 20% decrease). The results show that at the Sahelian zone the projected changes in temperature and precipitation have little to no impact on millet yield for the future time period, 2021/25–2050. In all agro-ecological zones, increasing soil fertility from poor fertility to moderate, near optimal and optimal level significantly reversed the negative yield change respectively by over 20%, 70% and 180% for moderate fertility, near optimal fertility, and optimal fertility. Thus, management or adaptation factors, such as soil fertility, had a much larger effect on crop yield than the climatic change factors. These results provide actionable guidance on effective climate change adaptation strategies for rain fed agriculture in the region.

Climate consoles: Pieces in the puzzle of climate change adaptation

Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) has been developing web applications to centralize and serve credible and usable information that allows natural resource managers, as well as the general public, to better understand the challenges posed by on-going environmental change. In particular CBI has designed a series of climate consoles that provide natural resource managers the most recent 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP5) climate projections, landscape intactness, and soil sensitivity for a series of reporting units over the western United States. The publically available web sites were refined based on feedback from a variety of users. In this paper, we describe each of the tools developed as open-source applications and provide details of their infrastructure in the hope they can be used and possibly modified by a wider audience. They were designed to be used as stepping-stones towards planning effective climate change adaptation strategies.

Whether conversion of mangrove forest to rice cropland is environmentally and economically viable?

Abstract The diverse habitat of the mangrove ecosystems all over the globe are under continuous threat of conversion for immediate and/or short-term economic benefits. Nonetheless, the emission of climatically relevant greenhouse gases increases with the disturbance of the mangrove sediment −this might undermine the credible reservoir of carbon within the sediment. This article attempts to estimate the environmental (carbon emission) and economic consequences of converting mangrove to cropland (especially rice paddy) based on field-scale study at three different sites (Khola, Gupti and Damra) within the Bhitarkanika mangrove for two consecutive years. The study suggests that the cumulative methane (CH4) emission was significantly higher from the rice paddy (211.3 kg ha−1) compared to the mangrove sediment (50.8 kg ha−1), while the average nitrous oxide (N2O) emission was significantly higher from the later (2.1 kg ha−1). Multivariate statistical analysis suggests that the land use was the prime controlling factor for variation in CH4 and N2O emission. Total carbon equivalent emission (CEETOT) from the rice paddy was significantly higher than mangrove during the study period. The study suggests that the economic value of the mangrove ecosystem was several folds higher than that of the rice paddy. The CEETOT of the Bhitarkanika mangrove has increased approximately 212 Gg over last few decades due to the conversion of the mangrove area to the rice paddy. Such studies are imperative in developing effective regional climate change adaptation strategies. The study advocates urgent need to educate and aware people about the benefits of the mangrove compared to the cropland.

Coastal tourism space in the context of climate change: discourses and strategies

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to explore how climate change and the discourses about adaptation to climate change are altering the spatial development of the tourism industry in coastal destinations. The paper also identifies how tourist development and climate change adaptation can be combined to transform space and place, especially in coastal tourism areas. Design/methodology/approach Using a theoretical approach based on the concept of production of space, the study focuses on relational space, relationships expressed through representations of space and social practices. A case study method is used to analyze the socio-geographic processes at work in the adaptation to climate change in a coastal tourism community in Quebec, Canada. The analysis of the study utilized Nvivo with thematic textual queries. Findings The results reveal an adaptation process at work, based on a “hold the line” strategy, where private stakeholders choose to invest in defensive structures to mitigate the impact of rising sea levels and erosion. This strategy reflects coordinated action in the face of the risk and to protect high-value land property. Research limitations/implications This research illustrates how tourism and climate change adaptation discourses intersect. It also reveals how tourism development promotes the values and image of coastal space and how this can conflict with an efficient climate change adaptation strategy. Originality/value This research provides guidelines for coastal tourism communities, enabling them to design their own climate change adaptation strategy, taking into account how the different social discourses and tourism practices interact with climate change adaptation. It also provides some insights into the criteria that influence an effective climate change adaptation strategy.

Climate change perception and choice of adaptation strategies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its adverse effects, identify major adaptation strategies used by farmers and analyze the factors that influence the choice of adaptation strategy by smallholder farmers in eastern Ethiopia. Design/methodology/approach – The study was based on a cross-sectional survey of 296 sample households selected from three districts in east Ethiopia. Data were collected with the aid of a semi-structured questionnaire and review of literature, documents and databases. Findings – The study provides empirical evidence that majority of farmers in the study area are aware of climate change patterns and their adverse effect on income, food security, diversity, forest resources, food prices and crop and livestock diseases. In response to these adverse effects, major adaptation strategies used by farmers include cultivating different crops, planting different crop varieties, changing planting dates, use of soil and water conservation techniques, conservation agriculture practices and engaging in non-farm income activities. Choice of adaptation strategies are influenced by gender of household head, household size, farm size, distance from market and number of farm plots. Practical implications – The study suggests that developing more effective climate change adaptation strategies need support from the government. Such an effort needs provision of the necessary resources such as credit, information and extension services on climate change adaptation strategies and technologies, and investing in climate smart and resilient projects. Originality/value – The study adopts multivariate probit model that models farmers’ simultaneous adaptation choice behavior which has been rarely addressed by previous researches.

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in the BS Agriculture Curriculum in Selected Commission on Higher Education Centers of Excellence in Agriculture

The agriculture sector is one of the major areas much affected by the current climate change risk. The Higher Education Institution (HEIs) specifically the SUCs centers of excellence in agriculture plays significant role to limit or lessen the impacts of climate change by promoting leadership in developing effective climate change adaptation strategies and creating public awareness. This study was conducted to assess the level of integration of climate change adaptation (CCA) in teaching courses under the Bachelor of Science in Agriculture (BSA) curriculum; determine the extent of influence of individual, organizational, external factors in the integration; and develop strategies how to mainstream CCA in the BSA curriculum program. Descriptive research utilizing survey and key informants interview (KII) of the deans and administrators were used to gather necessary data. A total of 103 faculties and 8 college administrators including deans from the four selected university became the respondents. The overall perceived knowledge, student needs to mainstream CCA in BSA is high. Majority of the respondents agreed that climate change adaptation principle is reflected to their organization mission. Minimal level of (CCA) integration observed among the agricultural colleges CHED Centers of Excellence. There is minimum integration of CCA in fundamental agriculture courses offered under BSA curriculum across the participating SUC-CA. Since there are existing legal basis such as; RA 9512 or the National Environmental Awareness and Education Act of 2008, section (3) which focus integration of environmental education in school curricula at all levels, whether public or private. RA 9729 or Climate Change ACT 2010. The respondents of this study from participating SUC–CA centers of excellence in agriculture believed that the specific policy from CHED through a circular memorandum order CMO mandating the SUC’s to re-examine the existing BSA curriculum under CMO#14 and develop strategies on how CCA will be integrated /mainstream on the course program is effective approach in support to the result of this study.

The potential of Indonesian mangrove forests for global climate change mitigation

Indonesian mangrove carbon stocks are estimated to be 1,083 ± 378 MgC ha−1. In the past three decades Indonesia has lost 40% of its 2.9 Mha of mangroves; this is estimated to have resulted in annual CO2-equivalent emissions of 0.07–0.21 Pg. Mangroves provide a wide range of ecosystem services, including nutrient cycling, soil formation, wood production, fish spawning grounds, ecotourism and carbon (C) storage1. High rates of tree and plant growth, coupled with anaerobic, water-logged soils that slow decomposition, result in large long-term C storage. Given their global significance as large sinks of C, preventing mangrove loss would be an effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy. It has been reported that C stocks in the Indo-Pacific region contain on average 1,023 MgC ha−1 (ref. 2). Here, we estimate that Indonesian mangrove C stocks are 1,083 ± 378 MgC ha−1. Scaled up to the country-level mangrove extent of 2.9 Mha (ref. 3), Indonesia’s mangroves contained on average 3.14 PgC. In three decades Indonesia has lost 40% of its mangroves4, mainly as a result of aquaculture development5. This has resulted in annual emissions of 0.07–0.21 Pg CO2e. Annual mangrove deforestation in Indonesia is only 6% of its total forest loss6; however, if this were halted, total emissions would be reduced by an amount equal to 10–31% of estimated annual emissions from land-use sectors at present. Conservation of carbon-rich mangroves in the Indonesian archipelago should be a high-priority component of strategies to mitigate climate change.

Food security in the context of climate change and bioenergy production in Tanzania: methods, tools and applications

A dramatic population growth is projected for the least developed countries of the world (United Nations 2013), which will also suffer disproportionally from ongoing and predicted climate disruptions (IPCC 2013). More frequently occurring extreme weather events have led to yield losses and decreasing cattle populations—aggravating an already precarious situation and leading to critical food shortages. Food security is a function of food availability, food accessibility, food stability and food utilisation (FAO 2002; Ziervogel and Ericksen 2010). Climate change and population growth are seen as key drivers of food insecurity severely affecting farming systems (Muller et al. 2011; Haberl et al. 2011, Strengers et al. 2010), as well as the global energy demand and therefore induced biofuel production (Von Braun 2007a), changing trade patterns through liberalisation and globalisation (Von Braun 2007b; Lotze-Campen et al. 2010), and the state of health of the population (10–20 % AIDS rate in East Africa). Cause– effect chains, in which food security is involved (droughts– diseases–health–human capital), are also drivers over large regions (Ziervogel and Ericksen 2010). Most of these drivers do not only lead to a productivity decline, but also often result in a degraded natural resource base and declining soil fertility (Graef et al. 2000). Rapidly changing framework conditions (Muller 2011) require a thorough understanding of integrated food systems and targeted incorporation of region-specific innovations. However, creating a sustainable road map for the future is a huge challenge for a variety of reasons. Mainly rainfed, subsistence-oriented smallholder farming systems are not only extremely vulnerable to a changing and unpredictable climate, but often also lack access to external inputs, institutional support and adaptive capacity. Moreover, food insecurity is often regarded as insufficient food availability which is only part of the picture. Instead of solely focussing on boosting crop yields, the highly complex state of vulnerability needs to be addressed encompassing economic and sociopolitical factors (Misselhorn 2004; Pretty et al. 2006). Also, increased bioenergy production has fuelled land use conflicts and lead to largescale deforestation due to the growing international demand for biofuels. Biomass is still the primary source of energy in developing countries—important for income, energy supply, poverty reduction and self-sufficiency of rural communities (Harvey and Pilgrim 2011; Mitchell 2011; Tilman et al. 2009). Effective climate change adaptation and food security intervention strategies need to pursue a holistic approach and an array of objectives: social and economic viability, soil health, minimum use of scarce water and fossil energy, affordable and low external inputs, improvement in infrastructure and market access, as well as conservation of natural resources and biodiversity. To achieve positive impacts and sustainable solutions, international research projects increasingly focus on integrated in-depth analysis of the food system itself and its core elements: (a) natural and human resources, (b) the use of Disclaimer The views expressed are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission.

Performance of a Rain Barrel Sharing Network under Climate Change

Rain barrels can be technically shared through social practices or mutual agreement between individual households. This study proposes the evaluation system for a rain barrel sharing network (RBSN) considering three performance criteria of reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, under plausible climate change scenarios. First, this study shows how the system can be improved in terms of the performance criteria using historical daily rainfall data based on the storage-reliability-yield relationship. This study then examined how the benefits from RBSN are affected by climate change after 100 years. Three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2) and three global circulation models were used for this purpose. The results showed that the reliability and vulnerability are improved due to sharing and their improvements become larger under climate change conditions. In contrast, the resiliency reduces slightly due to sharing and its reduction is attenuated under climate change conditions. In particular, vulnerability will be reduced significantly under climate change. These results suggest that the sharing of various water resources systems can be an effective climate change adaptation strategy that reduces vulnerability and increases the reliability of the system.

Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages.

Effective climate change adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation

Effective Climate Change (CC) adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation have been heavily discussed recently. Currently, there are ∼650 CC adaptation recommendations such as managing healthy vegetation on slopes (Veech, 2003), terrestrial and inland water systems (Settele et al., 2014), landscape restoration efforts (Pradhan and Shrestha, 2007), creation and protection of climate refuges (Lindenmayer et al., 2010), wildlife conservation (Mawdsley et al., 2009) among several others (Grabherr, 2009; Khattak et al., 2010). However, they are vague, lack specific solutions with limited analysis of significant benefits, advantages and disadvantages. Over the last few years, I have been developing a database which critically evaluates a variety of CC adaptation strategies, for several biodiversity conservation scenarios. After performing extensive analysis of the existing recommendations, and comparing them against the database that I have been populating, I have critically identified and analyzed 13 effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation that confer significant ecological benefits, and therefore, I discuss them here as most effective. They are segmented under [1] identification and analysis of existing stressors, [2] initiation of strategic zoning of land uses, [3] better preparation for major disturbances, [4] identification and designation of reserves, and [5] increased communication of knowledge to stakeholders. Intended benefits of such adaptation strategies include [a] improved capacity of decision makers to adapt to CC; [b] ability to adapt CC with specific reference to the interactions between ecosystems, communities and populations; [c] ability to device most appropriate adaptation strategies for different CC scenarios; [d] increased flow of communication; [e] ability to device proactive adaptive strategies for different habitat; [f] establish cross-national collaboration among the organizations; [g]ability to develop guidelines for adapting to CC that is specific for regions prone to extremities of stress, and [h] quantify environmental susceptibility against adaptive capacity, for effective biodiversity conservation (see Table 1).

P-graph approach for GDP-optimal allocation of resources, commodities and capital in economic systems under climate change-induced crisis conditions

Climate change impacts may manifest via multiple pathways, often leading to a shortage of resources, reduction in production capacities, or reduction in available labor inputs that are vital for economic activities. Effective climate change adaptation strategies are needed to determine the optimal allocation of scarce resources, commodities or capital under crisis conditions to minimize the economic consequences. In such cases, it is necessary to account for structural properties of economic systems to ensure that rational distribution policies are implemented. Input–output models are used to illustrate interdependencies among economic sectors and to assess both direct and indirect effects of disruptive events. Alternatively, these interdependencies may be exploited for developing effective recovery efforts to minimize the ripple effects of a crisis. In this paper, a process graph representation of the input–output model is developed to generate a rational procedure for the allocation of scarce resources, commodities or capital during crisis conditions. The process graph model is a graph-theoretic approach originally developed for chemical process design applications. The analogous problem structure allows it to be used for the input–output system. The method is demonstrated through several case studies to identify allocation policies geared towards reducing the impact of disruptions attributed to critical resources, commodities, or capital. Results show that depending on the economic structure, the optimal allocation of scarce resources, commodities or capital will satisfy the final demands of some economic sectors and reduce the production capacity of others in order to minimize the reduction of total gross domestic product. Though similar results can be obtained through traditional mathematical programming models, the process graph platform has the advantage to visually present the distribution of scarce resources, commodities or capital within the system. This work is a first attempt to implement the process graph approach in the fields of economics and climate change adaptation. In conclusion, the process graph based approach developed in this work can be used to provide policymakers with insights in developing appropriate risk mitigation plans associated with climate change-induced crisis conditions. Potential applications include both the development of disaster preparedness measures for anticipated disruptions, as well as the implementation of real-time emergency response in the midst of a crisis.

Changing How Earth System Modeling is Done to Provide More Useful Information for Decision Making, Science, and Society

New details about natural and anthropogenic processes are continually added to models of the Earth system, anticipating that the increased realism will increase the accuracy of their predictions. However, perspectives differ about whether this approach will improve the value of the information the models provide to decision makers, scientists, and societies. The present bias toward increasing realism leads to a range of updated projections, but at the expense of uncertainty quantification and model tractability. This bias makes it difficult to quantify the uncertainty associated with the projections from any one model or to the distribution of projections from different models. This in turn limits the utility of climate model outputs for deriving useful information such as in the design of effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies or identifying and prioritizing sources of uncertainty for reduction. Here we argue that a new approach to model development is needed, focused on the delivery of information to support specific policy decisions or science questions. The central tenet of this approach is the assessment and justification of the overall balance of model detail that reflects the question posed, current knowledge, available data, and sources of uncertainty. This differs from contemporary practices by explicitly seeking to quantify both the benefits and costs of details at a systemic level, taking into account the precision and accuracy with which predictions are made when compared to existing empirical evidence. We specify changes to contemporary model development practices that would help in achieving this goal.