Effect Of Unemployment Rate Research Articles

Scars of the job market “ice-age”

Abstract Existing studies found that entering the labor market during a recession has persistent negative effects—the scarring effects—on employment and earnings for Japanese men. The cohorts who entered the labor market during the prolonged recession between 1993 and 2004 are called “the ice-age cohorts,” and the persistent gap between them and older cohorts who entered the labor market during the bubble economy is often interpreted as the scarring effect of business cycle conditions at entry. However, the existing studies in Japan use data covering cohorts who enter the labor market in the 1990s or earlier. Motivated by the lack of empirical evidence with updated data, this article revisits the scarring effects of a recession at labor market entry on employment and earnings using data covering graduation cohorts 1984–2013. Younger cohorts who enter the labor market during the recovery do not earn more or enjoy more stable employment than the cohorts who enter the bottom of the ice-age, and that the effects of unemployment rate at entry on employment and earnings are no longer statistically significant for cohorts who enter the labor market after the job market ice-age. I also discuss potential factors that may have weakened scarring effects.

The Effect of Unemployment Rate, Education Level and Total Population on Poverty in West Java Province

Poverty is a problem that always arises faced by both developed and developing countries. This study aims to determine the effect of population, education level and unemployment rate on poverty in the cities of West Java Province. This type of research data uses secondary data, namely time series data from 2012-2021 and cross section data in 9 cities in West Java Province which were obtained from the West Java Central Bureau of Statistics. The analytical method used in this study is Panel Data Regression using the Eviews 9 analysis tool. The results show that population size has a negative and significant effect on poverty in the cities of West Java Province. Taken together, population size, education level and Unemployment rate affects poverty in the cities of West Java Province.

Effect of Unemployment Rate, Education on Human Development Index which is Mediated by Poverty.

The human development index can measure the welfare of human resources; therefore the quality of human resources is the most important factor that greatly influences the process and determines the success of development. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of education on poverty, the effect of unemployment on poverty, the effect of poverty on the human development index, the effect of education on the human development index mediated by poverty, the effect of unemployment on the human development index mediated by poverty. This study uses a quantitative approach with path analysis. The data used is secondary data taken from 2017-2021. The results of this study indicate that the level of unemployment and education have a significant positive effect on the human development index in South Sumatra Province. Poverty has a significant negative effect on the human development index in South Sumatra Province. The unemployment rate and education have a significant positive effect on the human development index which is mediated by the poverty variable.

Effect of Unemployment Rate, Education on Human Development Index which is Mediated by Poverty.

Effect of Unemployment Rate, Education on Human Development Index which is Mediated by Poverty.

Pengaruh Tingkat Pengangguran, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia dan Investasi Terhadap Kemiskinan di Kalimantan Selatan

This study aims to determine which variables affect poverty in South Kalimantan. This study also uses multiple linear regression analysis tools in the Effect of Unemployment Rate, Human Development Index, and Investment on Poverty in South Kalimantan. They have been using secondary data for ten years (2010-2019). The results of analysis regression, the dependent variable, namely the Unemployment Rate variable and the Human Development Index, has a significant effect on poverty in South Kalimantan. While the dependent variable, namely the investment variable, has no significant impact on poverty in South Kalimantan. From the regression analysis results, the dominant variable is the Human Development Index for Poverty in South Kalimantan. because the higher the level of quality of human development in an area, it can reduce poverty in that area

PENGARUH FAKTOR SOSIAL EKONOMI TERHADAP TINDAKAN KRIMINALITAS DI PROVINSI-PROVINSI DI INDONESIA

This study aims to determine the extent of the influence of economic growth on criminal acts in Indonesia, the effect of education level on criminal acts in Indonesia, the effect of unemployment rate on criminal acts in Indonesia, theeffect of poverty level on criminal acts in Indonesia, and the influence of economicgrowth, education level, the unemployment rate and the poverty rate togetheragainst criminal acts in Indonesia. This type of research is descriptive andassociative. The data used is secondary data. This study uses panel data, whichuses data from 32 provinces in Indonesia in the period from 2014 to 2019 using the Fixed Effect Model approach. The results of this study indicate that: (1) Economic growth has a positive and insignificant effect on criminal acts in Indonesia; (2) Education level has a negative and significant effect on criminal acts in Indonesia; (3) The unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on criminal acts in Indonesia; (4) The poverty rate has a negative and insignificant effect on criminal acts in Indonesia.

The effects of population aging, life expectancy, unemployment rate, population density, per capita GDP, urbanization on per capita carbon emissions

Human-induced carbon dioxide emissions (CO 2 ) is the main source of global warming. This work is aimed to systematically explore the effects of human factors on CO 2 . To this end, this paper investigates the effects of population aging, life expectancy, population density, unemployment rate, per capita GDP, urbanization on per capita CO 2 using linear panel data analysis and panel threshold regression approach for 154 countries. The results show that there is no threshold value between unemployment rate and per capita CO 2 , and between urbanization and per capita CO 2 , indicating that the effects of unemployment rate and urbanization on per capita CO 2 is linear. Urbanization contributes to the increase in per capita CO 2 , which is offset by the unemployment rate. In addition, there are threshold values between aging and per capita CO 2 , between life expectancy and per capita CO 2 , between population density and per capita CO 2 , and between per capita GDP and per capita CO 2 . This means the effects of aging, life expectancy, population density, per capita GDP on per capita CO 2 are nonlinear. The contribution effect of per capita GDP on per capita CO 2 decreases with the increase in per capita GDP. The inhibitory effects of population aging, life expectancy on per capita CO 2 increase with the increase in the degree of aging and life expectancy, respectively. Whereas the inhibitory effect of population density on per capita CO 2 decreases with increase in the population density. The empirical analysis of 154 countries further confirms the complexity and heterogeneity of the impact of human factors on carbon emissions.

PRODUCTIVITY AS A DETERMINANT OF LABOUR WAGE IN NEW ZEALAND’S CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

The empirical relationships between labour wages, unemployment rate and the labour productivity index in New Zealand’s construction sector (for the period of 1983–2017) were investigated. The Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction mechanism were used to determine the existence of long-run relationships between the variables and the adjustment process of the short-run disequilibrium into the long-run equilibrium. The results show that the labour productivity index positively affects the labour wage, while the effect of unemployment rate is negative in the long run. That is, the more productive the labour, the more the wages earned. Related statistical tests on the residuals proved that the model and its findings are reliable.

Does Economic Freedom Matter For CO2 Emissions? Lessons From Africa

The increase in the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has become one of the major issues worldwide. This increase has also drawn the attention of many financial and economic researchers to empirically investigate the determinants of CO2 emissions and environmental quality. However, many studies ignore the influence of economic freedom when investigating the determinants. This gap in the literature has motivated this study to examine the environmental impacts of economic freedom and whether these effects differ across various income groups. This study also offers what we know as the first study on the effect of unemployment rate on environmental quality. In order to strengthen the explanatory power of the estimation results, we employ electricity power consumption and GDP per capita as our control variables. Using the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator with a panel dataset for 24 African countries over 1995 – 2013 period, our results show that increases in economic freedom, proxied by trade freedom index, business freedom index, freedom from corruption and fiscal freedom index, increase environmental quality, measured using CO2 emissions. Our finding that fiscal freedom exerts a negative effect on CO2 emissions remained unchanged with the sample split into different income groups (low income, lower-middle, and upper-middle income countries). This suggests that tax reduction policies can be implemented to reduce CO2 emissions. At the same time, our further analyses, which are based on the different income groups, show that the effects of business freedom, freedom from corruption, and trade freedom on CO2 emissions differ across the various income groups. Specifically, the results indicate significant negative impacts of freedom from corruption and business freedom on CO2 emissions only for upper-middle income countries, while trade freedom is significantly negative only for lower-middle income countries, implying that the impacts of the variables depend on the income levels of the countries. The results also show that unemployment rate has no significant negative effect on CO2 emissions in lower-middle and upper-middle income countries, yet it significantly reduces CO2 emissions in low income countries. Thus, in order to have a robust understanding of the effects of economic freedom and unemployment rate on CO2 emissions, it is important to use a panel of more homogeneous economies. Our findings suggest that country-specific (or country-income based) environmental policies should be encouraged in order is to win the war against CO2 emissions and by extension environmental degradation.

Entrepreneurship Financing and its Effect of Unemployment Rate in Nigeria: The Msmes’ Perspective, 2001 – 2017

Entrepreneurship Financing and its Effect of Unemployment Rate in Nigeria: The Msmes’ Perspective, 2001 – 2017

Monitoring the Impact of Economic Crisis on Crime in India Using Machine Learning

Trends of crimes in India keep changing with the growing population and rapid development of towns and cities. The rise in crimes at any place especially crimes against women, children and weaker sections of the society is a worrying factor for the Indian Government. In India, the crime data is maintained by National Crime Records Bureau as well as an application called Crime Criminal Information System is available to make inquiry and generate reports for the crime data. To curb crime, the Police need countless hours to go through the crime data and determine the various factors that affect it. Therefore, there is necessity of tools which can automatically predict the factors that effects the crimes effectively and efficiently. The field of machine learning has emerged in the recent years for this purpose. In this paper, various machine learning techniques have been applied on crime data to monitor the impact of economic crisis on the crime in India. The effect of unemployment rates and Gross District Domestic Product on theft, robbery and burglary has been monitored across districts of various states in India. Further, Granger causality between crime rates and economic indicators has also been calculated. It has been observed from the experimental work that unemployment rate is the major economic factor which affects the crime rate, thus paving the path to control the crime rate by raising more opportunities for the employment.

The relationship between fear of crime and risk perception across Europe

Cross-national comparisons of fear of crime have been gaining in popularity within the academic community, as they allow for the examination of both individual and country-level correlates of this phenomenon. Nevertheless, the role of perceived victimization risk in fostering fear of crime with respect to various country specifics is often neglected. Drawing on data from the European Social Survey Round 5 (ESS R5), the aim of this study is to explore the relationship between fear of crime and risk perception in the context of 23 European countries. Risk perception is positively correlated with fear of crime in all of the analysed countries, although the strength of the relationship differs. Contrary to expectations, countries with a higher victimization rate exhibit a weaker relationship between fear of crime and risk perception, while in countries with a lower victimization rate, risk perception plays a relatively important role in shaping fear of crime. No effect of unemployment rate, size of migrant population or income inequality was found in the data.

The Turkish Spatial Wage Curve

The wage curve for Turkey revisited considering the spatial spillovers of the regional unemployment rates using individual level data for a period of 2004–2013 at the 26 NUTS-2 level by employing FE-2SLS models. The unemployment elasticity of real wages is −0.07 without excluding any group of workers unlike previous studies. There is strong evidence on spatial effects of unemployment rate of contiguous regions on wage level, which is larger, in absolute value, than the effect of own-regional unemployment rate, −0.087 and −0.056, respectively. Male workers are slightly more responsive to the own-region unemployment rate than female workers. However, female workers are more responsive to the neighboring regions’ unemployment rate. Furthermore, using group-specific unemployment rates in the estimation of the wage curve for various groups, we find that unemployment elasticity of pay for female workers has become smaller and lost its significance, whereas unemployment elasticity for male workers has changed slightly. However, introducing group-specific unemployment rate results in losing significance in estimates for female workers. The findings in this paper suggest that individual wages are more responsive to the unemployment rates of the proximate regions than that of an individual’s own region. Also, the wage curve estimates are sensitive to the group-specific unemployment rates.

Does Unemployment Matter for Lottery Sales and their Persistence? A New Estimation Approach

This paper employs the panel smooth transition autoregressive model to evaluate the threshold effect of unemployment rate on lottery sales and their persistence. To perform the empirical estimation, we use the panel data of lottery sales in 42 US states during the period of January 2003–December 2011. Thus, we have 4536 observations. The empirical results find that the effect of unemployment on lottery sales is nonlinear, heterogeneous, and time-varying, depending on the unemployment rates in different regimes. A rise (decrease) in unemployment will lead to a higher (lower) persistence effect of lottery sales. However, reducing unemployment rate is not a practical instrument for state governments to stabilize lottery markets. For the sellers of lottery tickets, designing new lottery products is a more efficient method for stimulating current lottery sales than anticipating the improvement in the unemployment rate.

The Effect of Unemployment Rate on Gross Domestic Product: Case of South Africa

Unemployment is the macroeconomic problem that affects individuals most differently and severely.This study investigates the effect of unemployment on gross domestic product in South africain. The annual time series used for the estimation cover the period 1980-2011. Using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationarity test, the variables proved to be integrated of order one. Johansen cointegration test was applied to determine the presence of cointegrating vectors in the variables. Also Granger causality test was applied, it was found that there is no causality found between unemployment rate and GDP growth. Finally, this study encourages all policies on economic growth with the idea that growth will bring employment in South African economy. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2013.v4n6p429

The Impact of the Unemployment Rate on Attrition of First-Term Enlistees

This study examines the effects of home-state unemployment rates on attrition behavior of Navy enlistees for successive career windows during the first term of service: the first 6 months, the second 6 months, the second year, and the third year of service. The results indicate that attrition is negatively associated with changes in the local unemployment rate during the first three career windows covering two years of service. However, after two years of service, the estimated effect of the unemployment rate becomes insignificant for most groups of sailors. This is likely because sailors with the poorest job matches are sorted out early in the first term of service.

RACE‐SPECIFIC EMPLOYMENT CONTEXTS AND RECIDIVISM*

Although much literature has examined macrolevel employment contexts and crime rates and, at the individual level, employment and offending, few studies have examined systematically whether macrolevel employment contexts influence individual‐level offending. At the same time, emerging literature on prisoner reentry increasingly underscores the potential importance of the social environment for impeding or facilitating successful transitions back into society. All three avenues of inquiry have emphasized the salience of race‐specific and offense‐specific effects. This study extends prior work on ecology and offending, employment and crime, and prisoner reentry by examining the race‐specific effects of unemployment rates and manufacturing employment rates on violent, property, and drug recidivism. By analyzing data on male ex‐prisoners released to 67 counties in Florida, we found, as hypothesized, that Black ex‐prisoners released to areas with higher Black male unemployment rates have a greater likelihood of violent recidivism. No comparable effect was identified for White exprisoners. However, we found that White ex‐prisoners, especially those without prior violent convictions, have a lower likelihood of violent recidivism when released to areas with higher White male manufacturing employment rates. We discuss the findings and their implications for theory, research, and policy.

Unemployment and Crime: Explaining the Apparent Nonrelationship

The majority of macro-level research has found no significant positive association between unemployment rates and crime rates, even though theory suggests that there should be one. This paper considers two possible explanations for the absence of the expected relationship. The first is that public assistance expenditures may cushion the impact of unemployment so that it has no impact on crime. The second is that much prior research has controlled for poverty rates or income levels, which may partial out much of the indirect crime-increasing effect of unemployment on crime, creating the appearance that crime and unemployment are unrelated. Analyses of 1990 metropolitan area data fail to support the welfare explanation. Specifically, the effect of unemployment rates on crime rates is just as high where welfare payments are more generous as where they are less generous. In support of the second explanation, a review of past unemployment-crime research indicates that 45% of all findings, and 65% of cross-sectional findings, were based on models that controlled for poverty or income, and that studies with such controls were less likely to find a significant positive association than those without the controls. Moreover, analyses of the metropolitan data also support the partialling hypothesis in that the coefficient for unemployment decreases once poverty is controlled, for all crimes except rape.

Unemployment and Ill Health: Local Labour Markets and Ill Health in Britain 1984-1991

This paper investigates the relationship between local unemployment rates and individual ill health. It is a case study of Britain in 1984-1991 based on secondary data analysis of the two sweeps of the Health and Lifestyle Survey (1993). High levels of unemployment are distinguished from increasing rates of unemployment and the effects of each on health in different employment statuses are compared, as are the outcomes for contrasting measures of ill health. Increasing rates of unemployment are seen to impact on job stress, but it is high levels of unemployment that influence premature death and self assessed health. Respiratory function is unaffected by unemployment rates. The effects of unemployment rates hold for all employment statuses, regardless of the higher job stress among the full-time employed and their otherwise better life expectancy and self assessed health. The relationships for unemployment rates and employment status are not confounded by sex, age, region or social class.

Random effects meta analysis of military recruiting

The success of the US military recruiting depends not only on recruiting efforts but also on the labor market conditions. In this paper we review the econometric literature that examined the effects of marketing as well as recruiting effort on high quality enlistment contracts in the 1980s. A random-effects meta analysis is used to examine the systematic variation across studies of advertising, recruiter effort, and unemployment rate elasticities. The result of a meta analysis indicates that (1) the estimated effect of unemployment rate on military recruiting does not vary significantly over several military recruiting studies; (2) the average elasticity of high quality contract with respect to unemployment rate is estimated as 0.48; (3) elasticities of high quality contract with respect to advertising and recruiter forces are influenced by individual study characteristics; (4) although the Army recruiter elasticity (0.43) turns out to be higher than advertising elasticity (0.15), Army advertising appears to cost slightly less than recruiter forces on average when an additional contract is needed. However, this cost difference is not significant.