Spillover Effects Research Articles

Spatial Dynamics of Environmental Efficiency in Tourism: A Stochastic Frontier and Spatial Durbin Investigation

ABSTRACT Incorporating carbon dioxide emissions in tourism efficiency measurement is crucial for promoting sustainable tourism development. This paper uses panel data on 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2019, stochastic frontier analysis, and a projection pursuit model to calculate the tourism environmental efficiency (EE) of each province. Moreover, a spatial Durbin model is used to evaluate the influence of various factors on tourism EE and its spatial spillover effect. The results show the decline of tourism EE in China, with pronounced regional variations. Notably, central and eastern China experienced substantial declines, while the western region saw the smallest decrease. Enhanced urbanization, economic openness, and tourism industry improvements bolster EE sustainability. Conversely, higher education levels, environmental regulation, and transport infrastructure hinder EE progress. Positive spatial spillovers from forest cover and environmental regulations contrast with negative effects from technological innovation and transport infrastructure. In the context of global warming, tourism management need to plan and utilize tourism resources more scientifically to ensure the sustainable use of tourism resources. Meanwhile, more consideration should be given to the factors that have a negative impact on tourism in order to promote sustainable tourism development.

Adoption of Orange-Fleshed Sweetpotato (OFSP) Technologies in Southern Ethiopia

Addressing malnutrition and vitamin A deficiency in Ethiopia necessitates innovative, food-based solutions such as biofortified crops. This study assesses the adoption rates of Orange-Fleshed Sweetpotato (OFSP) and examines the factors influencing adoption among project participants, non-participants, and counterfactual households in the former Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ (SNNPs) region. Primary data were collected in 2023 through a survey of 990 households across six districts, and logistic regression was employed to identify key determinants of adoption. The findings reveal OFSP adoption rates of 53% among participants, 56% among non-participants, and 42% among counterfactual households, with significant variation across regions. Factors positively influencing adoption include household education, proximity to health centers and OFSP multiplication sites, frequent extension contact, and access to agricultural services. This study underscores the potential of newly released OFSP varieties to enhance food security and resilience in malnutrition-prone areas. The comparable adoption rates between participants and non-participants highlight significant spillover effects from long-term interventions, suggesting widespread community benefits. However, the limited adoption of complementary OFSP package components points to the need for enhanced training programs and streamlined technology dissemination strategies. These findings contribute to understanding how biofortified crops can be scaled effectively to improve food security and nutrition, offering valuable insights for policy and program design.

The Spillover Effects of Cryptocurrency Trading Ban and Social Media on Domestic Fintech

In 2021, China implemented a sweeping cryptocurrency trading ban, significantly disrupting the cryptocurrency market. However, the impact of this regulatory action on domestic fintech companies has largely been overlooked. This paper investigates two key research questions: first, whether the 2021 Chinese cryptocurrency trading ban had spillover effects on the domestic fintech sector, and second, whether crypto-related social media sentiment influenced fintech companies differently before and after the ban. To address these questions, we employ a GARCH(1,1) model to analyze market volatility and trends. Additionally, we train a fine-tuned BERT model to enhance the accuracy of social media sentiment analysis. Our findings reveal that the cryptocurrency ban not only directly impacted the crypto market but also led to significant negative spillover effects on fintech firms. Following the ban, social media sentimentespecially concerning Bitcoinbecame a dominant factor, with fintech companies serving as a proxy for exposure to the digital finance sector. Positive sentiment surrounding cryptocurrencies served as a critical signal for speculative interest in fintech stocks post-ban.

Quantifying and Mapping the Impact of Construction Land Expansion on Cultivated Land Fragmentation—A Case Study of Fuqing City, China

To ensure the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources, it is essential to quantify and map the characteristics of construction land and cultivated land and analyze the mechanisms by which construction land expansion affects cultivated land. However, few studies have been conducted focusing on this issue. This study integrated morphological spatial pattern analysis, spillover effect analysis, landscape pattern analysis, and a land use transition monitoring method to investigate the characteristics of construction land expansion and cultivated land fragmentation. Fuqing City of China was selected as the case study area for demonstration. The results demonstrated that the expansion of construction land resulted in fragmented patterns within the cultivated land landscape: (1) The large core area of cultivated land was subdivided into smaller core areas during 2000–2020, while the construction land exhibited a tendency towards aggregation and a spillover effect; (2) The expansion rate of the construction land in the study area accelerated, while the extent of the cultivated land decreased; (3) Cultivated land fragmentation intensified as landscape aggregation weakened, leading to an expansion in the agglomeration of construction land. The highlights of this study are: (1) examining the characteristics of construction land expansion and cultivated land fragmentation from morphological and geospatial perspectives; (2) categorizing the core areas of cultivated land based on their size to facilitate the analysis of factors contributing to cultivated land fragmentation. The findings in this study can be used to develop models to predict future patterns of cultivated and construction land to provide suggestions for landscape planning.

The Digital Economy Promotes the Coordinated Development of the Non-Timber Forest-Based Economy and the Ecological Environment: Empirical Evidence from China

The digital economy offers new solutions for reconciling the growth of the non-timber forest-based economy (NTFBE) with ecological and environmental protection. Utilizing panel data from China’s provinces between 2011 and 2020, this study constructed a comprehensive indicator system for the purpose of examining the coordinated development of the NTFBE and the ecological environment. The employment of a panel of econometric methods, including Tobit models, mediated effects models, spatial Durbin models and threshold regression models, has enabled us to ascertain that the digital economy can effectively drive this coordinated development. The digital economy has a positive spillover effect in neighboring regions, although there is no discernible impact in central and northeastern China. Improvements in human capital and digital infrastructure reinforce this effect. Furthermore, the empowerment of green technology and industrial transformation, as well as the adoption of differentiated development strategies across distinct forest economic models, would be of paramount importance. These findings indicate a necessity for the standardization of the NTFBE. In conclusion, these implications offer novel solutions from China’s forested regions that reconcile socioeconomic growth and environmental protection, thereby fostering the sustainable development of forests.

The impact of ecological civilization construction on the resilience of green technology innovation: evidence based on double dual machine learning

Can the accelerated development of ecological civilization promote the sustainable development of green innovation?This paper investigates the effects of ecological civilization demonstration zones (ECDZs) on green innovation resilience. Based on a sample of 237 prefecture-level cities across 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021, our double dual machine learning and spatial difference-in-differences model indicates that ECDZs significantly enhance urban green innovation resilience. Our findings also reveal a spatial spillover effect of ECDZ—the development of ECDZs in one city significantly improves the resilience of green innovation in neighboring cities. The spatial spillover effect reaches its maximum in the fifth year. Our analysis of the underlying mechanisms suggests that ECDZs promote urban green innovation resilience through the advancement of digitalization, green consciousness, and new quality productivity. We also conduct an analysis of heterogeneity based on geographical locations and levels of policy support, and the results show that the impact of ECDZs on urban green innovation resilience is mainly observed in western, inland, and strongly policy-supported regions. The findings of this study provide crucial insights and valuable guidance for developing national environmental conservation policies and programs.

Economic policy uncertainty and US sector REITs: what can we learn from spillovers?

PurposeThis study examines the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on US Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) sectors from 1994 to 2024, focusing on dynamic spillover effects across varying economic environments.Design/methodology/approachEmploying a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, the research analyzes sectoral interconnectedness and spillover dynamics, capturing the evolving relationships between REIT subsectors and EPU over time.FindingsThe analysis reveals that US REIT subsectors are highly interconnected, indicating substantial internal spillovers. Retail, regional malls and shopping centres are primary shock transmitters, while self-storage, manufactured homes and industrial REITs act as net receivers, demonstrating resilience. Over the study period, Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) generally functions as a net receiver of spillovers from REITs. However, pairwise time-varying analysis shows that EPU transmitted shocks during the economic uncertainties of the 1990s but became a net receiver during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that disruptions in REIT markets contributed to policy uncertainties during crises. Additionally, the sectors driving volatility shifted over time: residential and apartment REITs were predominant during the 2008 crisis, while disruptions in the office sector were significant during the pandemic.Practical implicationsPolicymakers ought to design targeted interventions to stabilize the sectors that are primary transmitters of shocks during economic downturns and monitor closely economic indicators and adopt policies to mitigate adverse spillover effects.Originality/valueThis study offers novel insights into the time-varying interconnections between REIT sectors and economic uncertainty, illustrating how these relationships evolve with economic conditions and enhancing understanding of REIT resilience under uncertainty.

Rural Fish Enterprise Growth Based on Entrepreneurial Practices

Purpose: The research aimed to compare the growth of rural fish enterprises among the fish traders in the Misungwi and Magu districts. Precisely, the research fulfilled objectives are to (i) establish associations between fish traders’ innovation mindset, market orientation and risk-taking and (ii) establish if a statistical difference exists between Misungwi and Magu enterprises owned by fish traders. Design/Methodology/Approach: This research was cross-sectional, using a sample of 297 fisher and fish traders from the Misungwi and Magu districts in the Mwanza region along Lake Victoria. The sample choice procedure was proportionate stratified sampling, given that the populations of fishers and fish traders in the Misungwi and Magu districts differed. Crosstab was performed to generate Chi-Square values to measure associations among associated variables. Further, computations of Phi coefficients were undertaken to measure the size effect of the associations established. An independent samples t-test afterwards was conducted to estimate the differential existence of rural fish enterprises between Misungwi and Magu fish traders. Findings: The results further illustrate that statistically, the age of fish traders, experience in business, startup capital, capital invested in 2023 and number of employees at start-up were different between Misungwi and Magu fish traders and their differences using Eta Squared were estimated to be small for age of fish traders, experience in business and number of employees while that of startup capital invested and capital invested in 2023 were moderate. Research Limitation: Due to time and financial resources, the research was restricted to Misungwi and Magu districts in the Mwanza region and adopted only quantitative data capture. Practical Implication: The results will inform the industry's formulation of collaborative programmes for capacity building for fish traders in financial management, marketing, and entrepreneurship. Social Implication: A flourishing Fisher enterprise will have a spillover effect on the rural community by increasing the employment rate and livelihood. Originality/ Value: This research represents a significant advancement in understanding and developing rural fish enterprises through entrepreneurial approaches, filling a crucial gap in academic literature and practical implementation.

Impact of Academic Medical Centers on Surgical Outcomes of Neighboring Non-Academic Medical Centers.

We aimed to investigate the geographic variation of Academic Medical Centers (AMCs) across different healthcare markets and the impact on surgical outcomes in nearby non-AMCs. Patients who underwent major surgery between 2016 and 2021 were identified from the Medicare Standard Analytic Files. Healthcare markets were delineated using Dartmouth Atlas hospital referral regions. Multivariable regression was used to examine the association between the presence of market-level AMCs and surgical outcomes in neighboring non-AMCs. A total of 388,431 Medicare beneficiaries underwent major surgery (CABG: n=97,346, 25.1%; AAA repair: n=67,000, 17.3%; pneumonectomy: n=30,500, 7.9%; pancreatectomy: n=5,341, 1.4%; colectomy: n=188,244, 48.5%) at 2,757 non-AMCs. Median age was 74 years (IQR: 70-80), and roughly one-half of patients was male (n=215,569, 55.5%). Notably, 43.1% of individuals underwent surgery in markets with low AMC presence, 48.0% in markets with moderate AMC presence, and 8.9% in markets with high AMC presence. On multivariable analysis, compared with low AMC markets, high AMC presence was associated with decreased risk of extended length-of-stay (-1.51%, 95% CI -2.03 to -1.00), postoperative complications (-1.20%, 95% CI -1.76 to -0.65), 90-day readmission (-2.39%, 95% CI -2.90 to -1.88), and mortality (-0.64% 95% CI -0.98 to -0.30) (all p<0.001). Moreover, high AMC market presence was associated with a 2.93% (-2.93%, 95% CI -3.17 to -2.68; p<0.001) decrease in expenditures for the index surgical procedure. High market presence of AMCs was associated with lower morbidity and mortality rates at nearby non-AMCs. The influence of AMCs on clinical outcomes likely extends beyond direct patient care, indicating spillover effects of AMCs on outcomes for patients in neighboring non-AMCs.

Quantifying connectedness between extreme risk and investor sentiment: Evidence from interconnected multilayer networks

. This article proposes a novel interconnected network framework, including lagged and contemporaneous interconnected networks, to asses connectedness in the financial system. We apply the proposed approach to examine the lagged and contemporaneous connectedness between extreme risk and investor sentiment in Chinese financial institutions. Our results suggest the spillover effect of extreme risk to investor sentiment is more significant than the inverse direction. Notably, contemporaneous information spillovers play a key role in the connectedness between extreme risk and investor sentiment. Furthermore, we find that the inter-layer connection structure is heterogeneous in the lagged and contemporaneous interconnected networks. Finally, we discuss the drivers of inter-layer connectedness and find that the securities sector is inter-layer systemic importance. Meanwhile, investors in Ping An Bank also contribute to the interconnectedness between extreme risk and investor sentiment.

Green norms in the workplace to promote environmental sustainability: the positive effect on green innovative work behaviors and person-environment relationship

IntroductionThis study explores the relevance of behavioral and psychological factors in contributing to organizational environmental sustainability in the workplace.MethodsData were obtained from 271 workers in 5 organizations operating in the manufacturing sector in Italy and analyzed through a regression methodology. We tested two models, in which the employees’ perception of the work climate is derived from different sets of norms. In one model, we explored the influence of organizational policies and practices (injunctive norms). In another model, we explored the influence of peers’ behavior (social, descriptive norms).ResultsThe results show a positive impact of the employees’ perception of their work climate on both their propensity to engage in innovative green behaviors and their sense of personal connection with the environment, via environmental commitment. Moreover, we found that the employee’s organizational identification positively moderates the effect on green innovative behavior.DiscussionThis study underscores the relevance of creating and maintaining a pro-environment work climate in order to foster pro-environment innovative behavioral changes. Also, the results indirectly suggest that the influence on the sense of personal connection with the environment may generate a positive spill-over effect into the private life of workers.

Facilitating or Hindering? The Impact of Low-Carbon Pilot Policies on Socio-Ecological Resilience in Resource-Based Cities

Low-carbon pilot policies are essential for the green transformation of resource-based cities, helping them mitigate the “carbon curse” and the “resource curse” while promoting sustainable socio-ecological development. Focusing on a panel of 114 resource-based cities in China, spanning from 2003 to 2022, this study employs a range of methodologies, including kernel density estimation, the Difference-in-Differences Model, Spatial Difference-in-Differences, Mediation Analysis, K-means Clustering, and Dual Machine Learning to assess the consequences of low-carbon pilot policies on socio-ecological resilience. The findings indicate that the socio-ecological resilience of the study area has generally improved, though there is noticeable polarization. Low-carbon pilot policies significantly enhance the resilience of resource-based cities by 0.4%, and they exhibit a positive spatial spillover effect of 1.1%. However, the long-term effects of the policies on economic resilience were not significant, and the policies did not have a direct impact on the social resilience of the pilot cities; however, they did promote social resilience in neighboring regions. Finally, the effectiveness of low-carbon pilots varies, with more pronounced benefits in declining and mature resource cities, particularly in those with medium ecological and economic resilience, and low social resilience. Green finance, industrial transformation, and carbon emission efficiency are identified as key strategies for improving socio-ecological resilience. The above findings provide insights for policymakers seeking to foster inclusive, resilient, and sustainable urban development in China.

The Role of Sustainable Business Environment in Shaping Entrepreneurs’ Performance: Evidence from Myanmar

This study explores how Myanmar’s sustainable business environment influences entrepreneurs’ performance, focusing on the mediating role of knowledge spillover effects of foreign direct investment (KFDI). Data were gathered from 308 entrepreneurs across micro, small, medium, and large enterprises in Myanmar using online surveys via Google Forms and Microsoft Forms. The analysis employed partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) with SPSS 29 and SmartPLS 4. The results reveal that (i) the economic environment exerts a substantial positive influence on entrepreneurs’ performance; (ii) access to credit and the social environment show no discernible impact on entrepreneurs’ performance; (iii) both economic and social environments positively influence KFDI; (iv) access to credit has no effect on KFDI; and (v) KFDI partially mediates the relationship between the economic environment and entrepreneurs’ performance while fully mediating the relationship between the social environment and entrepreneurs’ performance. However, KFDI does not mediate the effect of access to credit on entrepreneurs’ performance. These findings underscore the critical role of sustainable economic and social environments in enhancing entrepreneurs’ performance and attracting foreign firms. Policymakers should prioritize these dimensions of the business environment to foster growth, maximize KFDI, and support long-term entrepreneurial success. This approach will not only ensure the economic vitality of Myanmar’s entrepreneurial ecosystem but also contribute to broader social and environmental sustainability.

Can New Quality Productivity Promote the Carbon Emission Performance—Empirical Evidence from China

New quality productivity (NQP) has the possibility to enhance carbon emission performance which will fortify the groundwork for long-term economic expansion even further. The research examines the panel data of 30 provinces spanning the years 2012 to 2022 for an evaluation framework for NQP and carbon emission performance at the provincial level. Employing fixed effect models, mediation effect analysis, and spatial econometrics, the study explores the effect of NQP on carbon emission performance, its mediating mechanisms, and the spatial spillover effects. The findings indicate that (1) NQP significantly lowers carbon emissions for every unit of GDP and enhances carbon emission performance, and the result holds up when the instrumental variable methods are used. (2) The NQP had a significant contribution to improving carbon emission performance via advancements in green innovation. (3) The NQP does more than directly enhance the regional carbon emission performance; in contrast, it additionally positively influences the carbon emission performance level of the adjacent regions by the spatial spillover effect. (4) The impact of NQP on carbon emission performance is particularly pronounced in eastern and innovative regions. On this basis, we should vigorously develop the NQP, strengthen cross-regional policy coordination, and promote green and sustainable development.

Do economic shocks matter to U.S. farm income?

ABSTRACT Analysing the effect of economic shocks on farm profitability is crucial for determining the U.S. farm economy’s vulnerability to macroeconomic changes. Using a structural vector autoregressive model and over five decades of data, we examine the impact and importance of external economic shocks to the U.S. farm economy. Specifically, we measure the short-term and long-term volatility spillover effects on U.S. farm income from shocks in energy markets, exchange rates, and agricultural markets. We find that volatility in exchange rates significantly affects US net farm income fluctuations in the short term. Results also suggest that shocks in the exchange rate are more important than other economic shocks, explaining about 47% of the short-run fluctuation in U.S. net farm income. These results highlight the importance of accounting for macroeconomic shocks to enhance the stability of the U.S. agricultural sector and to improve the accuracy of USDA short-term forecasts and long-term projections of farm income components.

The Dual Impact and Spatial Spillover Effects of the Digital Economy on Urban–Rural Integration

With the advent of the information age, the digital economy has become an important force in promoting economic and social development; however, its impact on urban–rural relations remains controversial. The primary objective of this paper is to conduct a comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution trends of both the digital economy and urban–rural integration in China. It focuses on exploring the spatial spillover effects and dual effects of the digital economy on urban–rural integration. Utilizing comprehensive data from 31 provinces spanning from 2000 to 2021, this paper employs multiple econometric models to analyze the intricate relationship between these two phenomena. The key findings indicate that, in the short term, the digital economy has a dampening effect on urban–rural integration, with an estimated total short-term impact of −4.21. Conversely, in the long run, the digital economy significantly fosters urban–rural integration, exhibiting a long-term effect of 0.47. Moreover, the digital economy exhibits notable spatial spillover effects, influencing adjacent areas through mechanisms such as technology diffusion and knowledge dissemination. This spatial spillover effect is pronounced within a radius of one to two provinces or approximately 540 km and gradually diminishes as the distance increases. This paper provides a new perspective for understanding the complex relationship between the digital economy and urban–rural integration with an important reference value for promoting coordinated urban–rural development in China.

Effects of Bank Capital and Lending on Leverage, Risk, and Growth of Nonfinancial Firms

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the impact of bank capital on the capital structure of nonfinancial firms, focusing on lenders and commercial borrowers from 2000 to 2019. We find a positive relationship between firm leverage and bank capital, with lending serving as a key channel for this effect. Additionally, increased lending is associated with higher firm risk and slower growth. Our deal‐level analysis reveals consistent findings with those at the firm level: greater lending is linked to higher spreads, more tranches, more secured loans, fewer lenders per deal, and longer maturities, all of which indicate increased borrower risk. This study offers new insights into how bank capital structure policies influence the financial structure of nonfinancial firms and contributes to the broader debate on the spillover effects of risk‐reduction measures in the financial sector, such as capital regulation, on the real economy.

Analysis of the influencing factors of the trade potential between countries along the ‘Belt and Road’ and China: a study based on spatial panel data model

ABSTRACT In 2013, China launched a cooperative initiative to build the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”. Based on the data of import and export trade between 57 countries along the “Belt and Road” and China from 2010 to 2021, this paper conducts research using the spatial Durbin model. The results show that the double fixed-effects model is optimal. The 57 countries along the “Belt and Road” have significant positive spatial spillover effects on trade with China, among which economic development, educational development, and transportation accessibility have significantly promoted trade between the countries along the “Belt and Road” and China.

Study on the Spatial Effect of Smart City Construction on Green Total Factor Productivity

Smart cities, a new kind of urbanization, offer a means of achieving the condition in which environmental conservation and economic growth are mutually beneficial. As a result, it is important to think about whether and how the development of smart cities might support the high-quality growth of urban economies. Based on the panel data of 163 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009-2018, the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of each prefecture-level city is measured using the SBM-GML model, and the appropriate spatial econometric model is screened by various types of tests. The spatial effect of smart city construction on GFTP is studied, and it is concluded that the pilot cities have a significant positive spatial spillover effect. The decomposition econometric model also shows that the pilot cities have a significant positive spatial spillover effect, and it also indicating that the smart city construction can also drive the surrounding cities to jointly improve the quality of economic development. Finally, the robustness of the spatial effect of smart city policy is also verified by changing the spatial measurement model and the type of spatial weight matrix, which also shows that the results of the spatial spillover effect of smart city construction are reliable.

The Belt and Road Initiative and Urban Entrepreneurship: Evidence From the Opening Policy From China

ABSTRACTEntrepreneurship is a vital source of high‐quality employment in China and is crucial in advancing Chinese‐style modernization. Using panel data from 281 prefecture‐level cities in China from 2003 to 2021, this study employs difference‐in‐differences and double machine learning models to examine the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on entrepreneurship. The research findings are as follows: The BRI implementation significantly enhances entrepreneurship at city and provincial levels, with results remaining robust across various tests. The BRI promotes entrepreneurship through industrial innovation, digital trade development, and economic agglomeration. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the BRI's positive effects on entrepreneurship are more pronounced in small and medium‐sized cities and central and western regions. Furthermore, the BRI exhibits significant spatial spillover effects, stimulating entrepreneurship in neighboring cities. The initiative also effectively reduces relative disparities in entrepreneurship across regions, particularly between eastern, central, and western areas, thus promoting coordinated regional development. Additionally, triple‐difference results indicate that the BRI's positive effects on urban industrial innovation are mainly concentrated in manufacturing sectors such as energy, equipment, and information technology. This study complements the BRI's effects and provides policy implications for narrowing regional entrepreneurship gaps and promoting high‐quality full employment in China.