Effects Of Recession Research Articles

Debt relief and slow recovery: A decade after Lehman

We follow a representative panel of millions of consumers in the United States from 2007 to 2017 and document new facts on the long-term effects of the Great Recession. There were about six million foreclosures over this period. Only a quarter of foreclosed households regained homeownership, taking an average four years to do so. This persistent loss of homeownership accounts for most of the decline in the U.S. homeownership rate. Despite massive stimulus and debt relief policies, house prices, consumption, and unemployment remained below precrisis levels in about half of the zip codes in the United States Regions that recovered to precrisis levels took on average four to five years. Regional variation in the extent and speed of recovery is strongly and persistently associated with frictions affecting the pass-through of lower interest rates and debt relief to households.

Poverty in the Time of COVID: The Effect of Social Assistance

The global recession caused by COVID-19 will lead to the first increase in global poverty in decades. The extent of the increase in poverty depends on the availability and effectiveness of social assistance. In the benchmark scenario, that takes no account of social assistance, when ranking countries most affected by the pandemic’s resulting recession, the top half (most affected) countries make up 15% of the world population and 19% of the world’s poor. However, these figures change substantially when we adjust the ranking to incorporate, alongside the recessionary effects, dimensions of each country’s social assistance programmes. When we adjust the recession ranking to incorporate the generosity of social assistance in each country, the top half (most affected) will constitute 39% of the total population and 45% of the world’s poor. Individual countries’ expected poverty levels are also strongly affected by which dimension of social assistance is considered in the calculation. This highlights the important role that social assistance plays in mitigating the effects of such a sharp and unexpected negative economic shock for the world’s poorest people. Unfortunately, many countries do not provide social assistance that is sufficiently generous and inclusive of, or targeted at, their poorest quintile. Consequently, these vulnerable segments of their populations are likely to suffer severely as a result of the recession.

The effect of economic downturns on state budgets: a counterfactual analysis of the great recession

ABSTRACT I propose a novel method to estimate the effect of recessions on government finances. Using the Great Recession and state budgets as an empirical example, I find large and prolonged budget cuts, but also increases in transfers to populations in need. The proposed method can be easily transferred to other recessions, different spending categories, and local governments receiving state transfers, such as school districts.

Impact of the Great Recession on mental health, substance use and violence in families with children: A systematic review of the evidence

ObjectivesThis review summarises the existing evidence on the effects of the Great Recession on mental health, substance use and violence in families with children and discusses the policy and service-system implications of this evidence. MethodsPeer-reviewed articles published in English between January 2010 and August 2020 were identified through a systematic search of the main scientific databases, citation records, and manual searches of individual journal sites. Studies focusing on children, or their parents, that included an exposure variable measuring the Great Recession and had an outcome related to mental health, substance use or violence were included. A risk of bias assessment and narrative synthesis were provided. ResultsIn total 40 studies were analysed. Most of the studies were deemed to have a moderate risk of bias (29), nine had a high risk of bias and two had a low risk of bias. High-quality studies provided evidence that the economic recession of 2008 (termed ‘the Great Recession’ in this paper) did hurt children’s mental wellbeing. The evidence regarding substance use in families with children was scarce but there were some indications that the recession increased drug and alcohol use among economically vulnerable subgroups. Studies with individual level data from the US showed that the Great Recession increased the risk of child maltreatment, but little evidence of this was found in several ecological and population level time-trend analyses. ImplicationsCounter-cyclical investments in and further integration of social, education and health services targeted not only at adults but also at families with children are crucial in alleviating human suffering in economic recessions. Subsequent research with the combination of high-quality individual and aggregated level data is warranted to assess the potential effects of recessions on substance use and violence in families with children. During the unprecedented economic changes following the COVID-19 pandemic, it is crucial to monitor timely mental health, substance use and violence in families at risk.

The influence of recession and macroeconomic variables on sectorial capital structure

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the recent recession and of macroeconomic variables over the indebtedness in Brazilian industry sectors. The gap derives from the preference for investigating the reaction of capital structure according to economic sectors. However, it has to be considered that industry sectors react differently to variations in the economic context, since they have different optimal points of capital structure composition. The relevance of the chosen topic lies in carrying out a sectorial analysis of the effect of recession and of macroeconomic variables on capital structure composition, identifying the most sensitive sectors. It is also relevant in terms of being based on classical financial theories applied to the current context, in order to help predict the proportion of debt given fluctuations in a set of macroeconomic variables. Standing out among the main contributions of this article are the analysis of the level of indebtedness of Brazilian companies given the occurrence of recession and variations in the macroeconomy, identifying sectors that are most exposed to modifying their capital structure due to these factors. Six research hypotheses were formulated and tested using multiple linear regression, with two-stage fixed effects based on panel data collected from 211 companies, classified into six sectors, with data relating to the first quarter of 2010 up to the first quarter of 2018. The results revealed that the recent Brazilian recession was relevant for the capital structure of the sectors studied, with inflation only being significant for the health sector. The level of indebtedness of the basic materials sector was shown to be the most dependent on economic fluctuations and that of telephony and utilities was shown to be the least dependent. In addition, it was verified that the company-specific variables have greater relevance in determining capital structure compared to the macroeconomic ones.

The effect of the Great Recession on the employment growth of young vs. small firms in the Eurozone

This paper examines the uneven impact of the Great Recession on firm-level employment growth across firm size and age classes. Based on firm-level data from ten Eurozone countries, we show that, notwithstanding the negative impact of the crisis, young firms were the most dynamic group of firms and prime contributors to net job creation even during the recession. However, conditional on survival, young firms experienced a sharp drop in their employment growth rates, whereas small firms were mostly unaffected. By using industry-level measures of external financial dependence, we then show how financial frictions were a driver of the growth rates slowdown of young firms.

Fiscal policy in the US: a new measure of uncertainty and its effects on the American economy

We use the dispersion of the Federal Budget Balance forecasts from Consensus Economics to construct a new measure of fiscal uncertainty; constant horizon forecasts are obtained through mixture distributions. The scheme we propose has several advantages over previous uncertainty measures. First (as opposed to recent proposals), it results in a forward-looking measure, which implies that any sudden development in terms of an (un)expected fiscal stance is immediately incorporated in the series. Second, the measure is by construction a real-time one. Third, being completely model-free, it is not contaminated (inflated) by model uncertainty. Fourth, our measure does not simply track uncertainty stemming from public consumption and investment, whereas it is comprehensive in also accounting both for the critical welfare component of public expenditure and for taxes. Fifth, as opposed to uncertainty indexes which can be interpreted only dynamically, our measure has an obvious intuitive point-wise interpretation. Interestingly, the inception of the Trump administration has led to unprecedented uncertainty shocks which have demonstrably put a non-negligible brake on the slow US recovery. More generally, we show that fiscal uncertainty shocks have clear recessionary effects. Furthermore, constraints on monetary policies during the ZLB have likely strengthened the recessionary effects of fiscal uncertainty shocks.

Gender Assessment of Coping Strategies Adopted by Rural Households During Economic Recession: A Case of Osun State, Nigeria

Summary The study assessed coping strategies adopted during economic recession by male and female members of rural households in Osun State, Nigeria. The study specifically examined the perceived causes of economic recession, investigated the perceived effects and identified the coping strategies adopted by the male and female members of the rural households during economic recession and their level of adoption. A multistage procedure was used to select 120 respondents from 6 local Government Areas of the State. An interview schedule was used to collect data from the respondents. The collected data were analysed using appropriate descriptive and inferential statistics such as frequency counts, percentages, means and independent T-test analysis. The mean ages of the male and female respondents were 45.2 ± 14.1 years and 37 ± 12.6 years respectively. The majority of the males (78.3%) and females (80%) were married with the mean household size of 7 ± 3 people for the male and 6 ± 2 for the female respondents. The cause of economic recession mostly perceived by the male and female respondents was poor economic planning (mean=3.87, 3.77), while prioritizing spending (mean=2.80, 2.52) was the most adopted strategy by both males and females. No significant difference was found in the effects of economic recession on the male and female respondents (t = -0.19; p >0.05) and likewise no significant difference was found in their economic recession coping strategies (t=0.115; p ≥ 0.05). The study concluded that there was no significant difference in the economic recession coping strategies between the male and female members of rural households in the study area.

Effect of Achilles Tendon Lengthening and Gastrocnemius Recession on Radiographic Tibiotalar Motion Following Total Ankle Replacement.

Surgeons frequently add an Achilles tendon lengthening or gastrocnemius recession to increase dorsiflexion following total ankle replacement. Previous studies have looked at the effects of these procedures on total tibiopedal motion. However, tibiopedal motion includes motion of the midfoot and hindfoot as well as the ankle replacement. The current study examined the effects of Achilles tendon lengthening and gastrocnemius recession on radiographic tibiotalar motion at the level of the prosthesis only. Fifty-four patients with an average of 25 months follow-up after total ankle replacement were divided into 3 groups: (1) patients who underwent Achilles tendon lengthening, (2) patients who had a gastrocnemius recession, (3) patients with no lengthening procedure. Tibiotalar range of motion was measured on lateral dorsiflexion-plantarflexion radiographs using reference lines on the surface of the implants. Both Achilles tendon lengthening and gastrocnemius recession significantly increased tibiotalar dorsiflexion when compared to the group without lengthening. However, the total tibiotalar range of motion among the 3 groups was the same. Interestingly, the Achilles tendon lengthening group lost 11.7 degrees of plantarflexion compared to the group without lengthening, which was significant. Both Achilles tendon lengthening and gastrocnemius recession increased radiographic tibiotalar dorsiflexion following arthroplasty. Achilles tendon lengthening had the unexpected effect of significantly decreasing plantarflexion. Gastrocnemius recession may be a better choice when faced with a tight ankle replacement because it increases dorsiflexion without a compensatory loss of plantarflexion. Level III, retrospective comparative study.

Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms Experienced by Older People: Effects of Time, Hurricane Sandy, and the Great Recession.

To examine depressive symptom trajectories as a function of time and exposure to Hurricane Sandy, accounting for the effects of the Great Recession. We analyzed 6 waves of data from a 12-year panel using latent class growth models and multinomial logistic regression. We identified 4 groups of people experiencing different trajectories of depressive symptoms. The groups differed on baseline characteristics (gender, age, education, income, race), history of diagnosed depression, and initial level of depressive symptoms. The group with the highest levels of depressive symptoms reported greater levels of peri-traumatic stress exposure to Hurricane Sandy. Depressive symptoms increased as a function of the Great Recession, but exposure to Hurricane Sandy was not associated with subsequent increases in depressive symptoms for any of the 4 groups. People who consistently experienced high levels of depressive symptoms over time reported the highest levels of peri-traumatic stress during Hurricane Sandy. Findings highlight the importance of accounting for historical trends when studying the effects of disaster, identify people likely to be at risk during a disaster, and provide novel information about the causal relationship between exposure to disaster and depressive symptoms.

Does Unemployment Responsiveness to Output Change Depend on Age, Gender, Education, and the Phase of the Business Cycle?

The impact of economic growth on unemployment is commonly agreed and extensively studied. However, how age and gender shape this relationship is not as well explored, while there is an absence of research on whether education plays a role. We apply Okun’s law, aiming to estimate age-, gender- and educational attainment level-specific unemployment rate sensitivity to cyclical output fluctuations. Since the empirical literature provides evidence in favour of the non-linear impact of output change on the unemployment rate, supporting higher effects of recessions than that of expansions, we aim to enrich this analysis by estimating how the impact of positive/negative output change on the specific unemployment rate varies with the level of the total unemployment. The analysis is based on 28 European Union (EU) countries and covers the period of 1995–2019. The equations are estimated by least-squares dummy variables (LSDV), using Prais–Winsten standard errors. For the robustness check, we alternatively used Newey–West standard errors to address serial-correlations and heteroscedasticity, and the Arellano–Bond estimator for some specifications that assume dynamics in the panel. The results support previous findings of male- and youth-specific Okun’s coefficients and reveal that they significantly stand out just over the periods of negative output change. Additionally, we find that educational attainment level is an important factor explaining the heterogeneity of unemployment reaction to output change.

Is the Motion-Pictures Industry Recession Proof?

There is a longstanding belief among motion-pictures industry observers that box-office revenues are largely unaffected by poor macroeconomic conditions. This belief, which primarily grew out of the success of the film industry in the early years of the Great Depression, has been pervasive in the industry, and, to a lesser degree, among academics, despite a lack of empirical evidence to support it. This paper seeks to empirically evaluate the effect of recessions on box-office revenues of the U.S. motion-pictures industry using data from Box Office Mojo and the St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Database from 1990 to 2019. This period, which includes three periods of recession, is analyzed using a number of time-series econometric methods. Results show that macroeconomic fluctuations do have a significant effect on film-industry revenues and a declining economy curtails growth, as measured in terms of the mean of revenue and persistence over time. The depth of a recession appears to be an especially important determinant. These results inform future models of the film industry by highlighting the importance of macroeconomic effects on the industry as a whole.

Effects of the Brazilian recession on wage inequality between men and women

The Brazilian economy entered a deep recession in 2014, when the country’s GDP decreased, with negative consequences for the labour market. The aim of this paper is to analyse the effect of this recession on the country’s wage inequality, taking into account sex differences. The paper classifies employees in different groups considering occupational groups and the sectors of activities these workers belong to in order to verify who are the employees better inserted in the labour market and the ones who are in a more vulnerable situation, separating them by sex. The results show a high asymmetry and dispersion of wage distribution in Brazil. The economic recession of 2015-2016 reduced the country’s income inequality and the differences between men and women, because the share of workers with lower wages increased. However, wage differences in favour of men are still high, especially in occupations of high income and higher education requirements.

Analysis of QTL DM4.1 for Downy Mildew Resistance in Cucumber Reveals Multiple subQTL: A Novel RLK as Candidate Gene for the Most Important subQTL.

One of the biggest problems in cucumber cultivation is cucurbit downy mildew (DM), caused by the obligate biotroph Pseudoperonospora cubensis. Whereas DM in cucumber was previously efficiently controlled by the dm-1 gene from Indian cucumber accession PI 197087, this resistance was broken by new DM strains, prompting the search for novel sources of resistance. A promising source of resistance is the wild cucumber accession PI 197088. It was previously shown that DM resistance in this genotype inherits polygenically. In this paper, we put the focus on one of the QTL, DM4.1 that is located on chromosome 4. QTL DM4.1 was shown to consist of three subQTL: DM4.1.1 affected pathogen-induced necrosis, DM4.1.2 was shown to have an additive effect on sporulation, and DM4.1.3 had a recessive effect on chlorosis as well as an effect on sporulation. Near-isogenic lines (NILs) were produced by introgressing the subQTLs into a susceptible cucumber line (HS279) with good horticultural traits. Transcriptomic analysis revealed that many genes in general, and defense pathway genes in particular, were differentially expressed in NIL DM4.1.1/.2 compared to NIL DM4.1.3 and the susceptible parent HS279. This indicates that the resistance from subQTL DM4.1.1 and/or subQTL DM4.1.2 likely involves defense signaling pathways, whereas resistance due to subQTL DM4.1.3 is more likely to be independent of known defense pathways. Based on fine-mapping data, we identified the RLK gene CsLRK10L2 as a likely candidate for subQTL DM4.1.2, as this gene was found to have a loss-of-function mutation in the susceptible parent HS279, and was strongly upregulated by P. cubensis inoculation in NIL DM4.1.1/.2. Heterologous expression of this gene triggered necrosis, providing further evidence that this gene is indeed causal for subQTL DM4.1.2.

Teachers' and School Administrators' Views Regarding the Role of Recess for Students

This study aimed to determine school administrators’ and teachers’ views regarding the role of recess for students. Phenomenology, one of the qualitative research designs, was used in this study. Maximum variation sampling method, a purposeful sampling method, was used to identify the research sample. The research data were collected through a semi-structured interview form and the collected data were analyzed by content analysis. The participants expressed their opinions about the effects of recess in terms of its cognitive, social, affective and physical effects. Participants stated that recess enables students to effectively participate in lessons cognitively, affectively, and behaviorally and that academic learning continued during recess. In addition, it is stated that recess has social effects such as forming friendships, learning about self, social skills and life. The participants stated that recess helps students to feel happy and relieve their tensions. Participants stated that recess can have positive effects on health since it provides students with the opportunity to move physically and it can decrease undesired behaviors. Participants stated that students can also experience negative emotions such as feelings of exclusion and loneliness during recess.

Socio-economic inequalities on cancer mortality in nine European areas: The effect of the last economic recession

BackgroundThe effect of inequalities aggravated by economic recessions in the mortality rates of certain diseases has been previously described. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between socio-economic deprivation and cancer mortality. We focused on lung, colon, prostate, and breast cancers in nine European urban areas over three periods: two before (2000–2003 and 2004–2008) and one after (2009–2014) the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. MethodsThis is an ecological study of trends. The units of analysis were small areas within nine European urban areas. We used a composite deprivation index as a socio-economic indicator. As a mortality indicator, we used the smoothed standardized mortality ratio, calculated using the hierarchical Bayesian model proposed by Besag, York and Mollié. To analyze the evolution of socio-economic inequalities, we fitted an ecological regression model that included the socio-economic indicator, the period of time, and the interaction between these terms. ResultsIn men, socio-economic inequalities in all-cancer and lung cancer mortality were observed in most of the cities studied, but did not increase after the onset of the economic crisis. In women, only two cities (Stockholm and London) showed socio-economic inequalities in all-cancer and lung cancer mortality; there was also no increase in inequalities. ConclusionsOur results did not validate our hypothesis that inequalities increase in times of crisis. However, they emphasize the importance of socio-economic measurements for understanding mortality inequalities, and can be used to inform prevention strategies and help plan local health programs aimed at reducing health inequalities.

Proposition 13—America's Second Great Tax Revolt: A Forty Year Struggle for Library Survival

Proposition 13—America's Second Great Tax Revolt: A Forty Year Struggle for Library Survival

Crises and Opportunity

The phrase “necessity is the mother of invention,” coined by Plato over 2,000 years ago, could not be more appropriate than it is today. Still knee deep in combating the COVID‐19 pandemic nationwide and now navigating the effects of an economic recession, government policymakers are struggling to halt further economic decline and create jobs. An area of investment that can support these goals quickly and effectively is in energy infrastructure. Private‐sector capital combined with aggressive public policy goals, and the government funding made available by states and utilities to support clean energy development, offers a once‐in‐a‐lifetime opportunity to reinvent the US economy in an environmentally sustainable manner. Coupled with a desire to mitigate the increasing impacts of climate change, the public‐private partnership represents a low‐risk, high‐reward opportunity for deploying capital.

Numerical Investigation of High Pressure CO2-Diluted Combustion Using a Flamelet-based Approach

ABSTRACT Direct-fired oxy-fuel combustion as a heat source is utilized in supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycles, such as the Allam cycle, which has shown promise in delivering higher efficiencies while achieving the complete capture of combustion products in future generation carbon-neutral power plants. The design of dedicated burners for such cycles is key in determining their overall efficiency and viability. We present a series of numerical simulations on a prototype burner, currently in development, operating in an essentially non-premixed regime with a high pressure gaseous fuel, burning in the presence of a hot oxidant flow containing a mixture of recycled CO2 and pure oxygen. Simulations rely on a turbulent combustion model based on a simplified approach for diluted steady laminar flamelets. We investigate the effect of the degree of dilution as well as pressure on the flame structure, revealing a concurrent change in stoichiometric mixture fraction and quenching scalar dissipation. We also assess the effect of injector recess and of swirl in the oxidizer stream.

Oil-Fueled Accumulation in Late Capitalism

Capitalist development since the 1940s has been fueled by global oil extraction. Cheap oil was the core energy input in the post–World War II expansion. By the 1970s, the limits of this oil-fueled accumulation regime began to appear. During that decade, a series of oil price hikes combined with other sources of tension to form a deep accumulation crisis. The crisis of the 1970s showed the effects that a strategic circulating capital—in this case, petroleum—has in shaping profitability trends. Today, the possible recessionary effects caused by oil price hikes are joined on the environmental side by another problem: the continued burning of fossil fuels exacerbates the climate crisis. To address this double contradiction, I revisit the Marxian theory of crisis in a world-historical and world-ecological framework. With this framework, I unpack the historical connections between petroleum, uneven development, accumulation crises, and climate change.