Effect Of Orbital Forcing Research Articles

Effects of orbital forcing, greenhouse gases and ice sheets on Saharan greening in past and future multi-millennia

Abstract. Climate archives reveal alternating arid and humid conditions in North Africa during the last several million years. Most likely the dry phases resembled current hyper-arid landscapes, whereas the wet phases known as African humid periods (AHPs) sustained much more surface water and greater vegetated areas that “greened” large parts of the Sahara region. Previous analyses of sediment cores from the Mediterranean Sea showed the last five AHPs differed in strength, duration and rate of change. To understand the causes of such differences we perform transient simulations of the past 190 000 years with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. We analyse the amplitude and rate of change of the modelled AHP responses to changes in orbital parameters, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ice sheets. In agreement with estimates from Mediterranean Sea sapropels, we find the model predicts a threshold in orbital forcing for Sahara greening and occurrence of AHPs. Maximum rates of change in simulated vegetation extent at AHP onset and termination correlate strongly with the rate of change of the orbital forcing. As suggested by available data for the Holocene AHP, the onset of modelled AHPs usually happens faster than termination. A factor separation analysis confirms the dominant role of the orbital forcing in driving the amplitude of precipitation and vegetation extent for past AHPs. Forcing due to changes in GHGs and ice sheets is only of secondary importance, with a small contribution from synergies with the orbital forcing. Via the factor separation we detect that the threshold in orbital forcing for AHP onset varies with GHG levels. To explore the implication of our finding from the palaeoclimate simulations for the AHPs that might occur in a greenhouse-gas-induced warmer climate, we extend the palaeoclimate simulations into the future. For the next 100 000 years the variations in orbital forcing will be smaller than during the last 100 millennia, and the insolation threshold for the onset of late Quaternary AHPs will not be crossed. However, with higher GHG concentrations the predicted threshold drops considerably. Thereby, the occurrence of AHPs in upcoming millennia appears to crucially depend on future concentrations of GHGs.

Impact of ENSO on East Asian winter monsoon during interglacial periods: effect of orbital forcing

Orbital forcing influences climate phenomena by changing incoming solar radiation in season and latitude. Here, changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)’s impact on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) due to orbital forcing, especially for three selected time periods in each of two interglacial periods, the Eemian (126, 122, 115 ka) and Holocene (9, 6, 0 ka), are investigated. There was a high negative correlation between ENSO and EAWM when the obliquity was low, the processional angle was large, and especially when accompanied by large eccentricity, which corresponds to a weaker monsoon period. The correlation was also high when ENSO variability was high, which interestingly corresponded to lower obliquity and higher-degree precession periods. Therefore, as both lower obliquity and higher-degree precession, such as during 115 ka and 0 ka, cause the EAWM to be weakened through higher winter insolation over Northern hemisphere, and the ENSO to be enhanced through an intensified zonal contrast of the equatorial sea surface temperature, the relationship between the ENSO and EAWM becomes tighter. The opposite case (i.e., during 126 and 9 ka) is also true dynamically. Furthermore, the sensitivity of boreal winter precipitation against sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the tropical Pacific, which depends on mean SST, was positively correlated to the strength of the ENSO-EAWM correlation, implying that the warmer mean ocean surface causes the strong response of atmosphere to change in the SST anomaly, thereby enhancing the impact of ENSO on EAWM. Warmer wintertime tropical SST is attributed to higher insolation over the tropics, especially during 115 and 0 ka, while cooler SSTs occurred during 126 and 9 ka.

On the effect of orbital forcing on mid-Pliocene climate, vegetation and ice sheets

Abstract. We present results from modelling of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3–3 million years ago) using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 analysing the effect of changes in boundary conditions as well as of orbital forcing on climate. First we performed equilibrium experiments following the PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) protocol with a CO2 concentration of 405 ppm, reconstructed mid-Pliocene orography and vegetation and a present-day orbital configuration. Simulated global Pliocene warming is about 2.5 °C, fully consistent with results of atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations performed for the same modelling setup. A factor separation analysis attributes 1.5 °C warming to CO2, 0.3 °C to orography, 0.2 °C to ice sheets and 0.4 °C to vegetation. Transient simulations for the entire mid-Pliocene warm period with time-dependent orbital forcing as well as interactive ice sheets and vegetation give a global warming varying within the range 1.9–2.8 °C. Ice sheet and vegetation feedbacks in synergy act as amplifiers of the orbital forcing, transforming seasonal insolation variations into an annual mean temperature signal. The effect of orbital forcing is more significant at high latitudes, especially during boreal summer, when the warming over land varies in the wide range from 0 to 10 °C. The modelled ice-sheet extent and vegetation distribution also show significant temporal variations. Modelled and reconstructed data for Northern Hemisphere sea-surface temperatures and vegetation distribution show the best agreement if the reconstructions are assumed to be representative for the warmest periods during the orbital cycles. This suggests that low-resolution Pliocene palaeoclimate reconstructions can reflect not only the impact of increased CO2 concentrations and topography changes but also the effect of orbital forcing. Therefore, the climate (Earth system) sensitivity estimates from Pliocene reconstructions which do not account for the effect of orbital forcing can be biased toward high values.

Effects of orbital forcing on atmosphere and ocean heat transports in Holocene and Eemian climate simulations with a comprehensive Earth system model

Abstract. Orbital forcing does not only exert direct insolation effects, but also alters climate indirectly through feedback mechanisms that modify atmosphere and ocean dynamics and meridional heat and moisture transfers. We investigate the regional effects of these changes by detailed analysis of atmosphere and ocean circulation and heat transports in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-biosphere general circulation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH/MPI-OM). We perform long term quasi equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial, mid-Holocene (6000 years before present – yBP), and Eemian (125 000 yBP) orbital boundary conditions. Compared to pre-industrial climate, Eemian and Holocene temperatures show generally warmer conditions at higher and cooler conditions at lower latitudes. Changes in sea-ice cover, ocean heat transports, and atmospheric circulation patterns lead to pronounced regional heterogeneity. Over Europe, the warming is most pronounced over the north-eastern part in accordance with recent reconstructions for the Holocene. We attribute this warming to enhanced ocean circulation in the Nordic Seas and enhanced ocean-atmosphere heat flux over the Barents Shelf in conduction with retreat of sea ice and intensified winter storm tracks over northern Europe.

Thresholds for Cenozoic bipolar glaciation

The long-standing view of Earth's Cenozoic glacial history calls for the first continental-scale glaciation of Antarctica in the earliest Oligocene epoch ( approximately 33.6 million years ago), followed by the onset of northern-hemispheric glacial cycles in the late Pliocene epoch, about 31 million years later. The pivotal early Oligocene event is characterized by a rapid shift of 1.5 parts per thousand in deep-sea benthic oxygen-isotope values (Oi-1) within a few hundred thousand years, reflecting a combination of terrestrial ice growth and deep-sea cooling. The apparent absence of contemporaneous cooling in deep-sea Mg/Ca records, however, has been argued to reflect the growth of more ice than can be accommodated on Antarctica; this, combined with new evidence of continental cooling and ice-rafted debris in the Northern Hemisphere during this period, raises the possibility that Oi-1 represents a precursory bipolar glaciation. Here we test this hypothesis using an isotope-capable global climate/ice-sheet model that accommodates both the long-term decline of Cenozoic atmospheric CO(2) levels and the effects of orbital forcing. We show that the CO(2) threshold below which glaciation occurs in the Northern Hemisphere ( approximately 280 p.p.m.v.) is much lower than that for Antarctica ( approximately 750 p.p.m.v.). Therefore, the growth of ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere immediately following Antarctic glaciation would have required rapid CO(2) drawdown within the Oi-1 timeframe, to levels lower than those estimated by geochemical proxies and carbon-cycle models. Instead of bipolar glaciation, we find that Oi-1 is best explained by Antarctic glaciation alone, combined with deep-sea cooling of up to 4 degrees C and Antarctic ice that is less isotopically depleted (-30 to -35 per thousand) than previously suggested. Proxy CO(2) estimates remain above our model's northern-hemispheric glaciation threshold of approximately 280 p.p.m.v. until approximately 25 Myr ago, but have been near or below that level ever since. This implies that episodic northern-hemispheric ice sheets have been possible some 20 million years earlier than currently assumed (although still much later than Oi-1) and could explain some of the variability in Miocene sea-level records.

The Effect of Orbital Forcing on the Mean Climate and Variability of the Tropical Pacific

Abstract Using a coupled general circulation model, the responses of the climate mean state, the annual cycle, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon to orbital changes are studied. The authors analyze a 1650-yr-long simulation with accelerated orbital forcing, representing the period from 142 000 yr b.p. (before present) to 22 900 yr a.p. (after present). The model simulation does not include the time-varying boundary conditions due to ice sheet and greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to the mean seasonal cycle of cloudiness in the off-equatorial regions, an annual mean precessional signal of temperatures is generated outside the equator. The resulting meridional SST gradient in the eastern equatorial Pacific modulates the annual mean meridional asymmetry and hence the strength of the equatorial annual cycle. In turn, changes of the equatorial annual cycle trigger abrupt changes of ENSO variability via frequency entrainment, resulting in an anticorrelation between annual cycle strength and ENSO amplitude on precessional time scales.

Glacial termination: sensitivity to orbital and CO 2 forcing in a coupled climate system model

To study glacial termination and related feedback mechanisms, a continental ice dynamics model is globally and asynchronously coupled to a physical climate (atmosphere-ocean-sea ice) model. The model performs well under present-day, 11 kaBP (thousand years before present) and 21 kaBP perpetual forcing. To address the ice-sheet response under the effects of both perpetual orbital and CO2 forcing, sensitivity experiments are conducted with two different orbital configurations (11 kaBP and 21 kaBP) and two different atmospheric CO2 concentrations (200 ppmv and 280 ppmv). This study reveals that, although both orbital and CO2 forcing have an impact on ice-sheet maintenance and deglacial processes, and although neither acting alone is sufficient to lead to complete deglaciation, orbital forcing seems to be more important. The CO2 forcing has a large impact on climate, not uniformly or zonally over the globe, but concentrated over the continents adjacent to the North Atlantic. The effect of increased CO2 (from 200 ppmv to 280 ppmv) on surface air temperature has its peak there in winter associated with a reduction in sea-ice extent in the northern North Atlantic. These changes are accompanied by an enhancement in the intensity of the meridional overturning and poleward ocean heat transport in the North Atlantic. On the other hand, the effect of orbital forcing (from 21 kaBP to 11 kaBP) has its peak in summer. Since the summer temperature, rather than winter temperature, is found to be dominant for the ice-sheet mass balance, orbital forcing has a larger effect than CO2 forcing in deglaciation. Warm winter sea surface temperature arising from increased CO2 during the deglaciation contributes to ice-sheet nourishment (negative feedback for ice-sheet retreat) through slightly enhanced precipitation. However, the precipitation effect is totally overwhelmed by the temperature effect. Our results suggest that the last deglaciation was initiated through increasing summer insolation with CO2 providing a powerful feedback.