Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables Research Articles

The impact of macroeconomic variables on credit risk: Evidence from Indonesian business sector level data

This study aims to empirically examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on credit risk in each business sector in Indonesia. Using time-series quarterly data during the period 2011q1-2019q2, this study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results of this study explain that macroeconomic variables namely GDP growth in the long run have a significant negative effect on credit risk in 6 sectors and in the short term have a significant negative effect on 6 sectors. Inflation has a significant positive effect in the long run on one sector, namely the provision of accommodation and provision of food and drink, and a significant negative effect on 6 sectors, in the short term inflation has a significant positive effect on 7 sectors and a significant negative effect on one sector, namely education services. The last variable is the long-term loan interest rate which has a positive effect on 7 sectors and in the short term has a significant positive effect on 6 sectors on the high value of credit risk in each business sector in Indonesia. The result indicating that macroeconomic variables have a real impact on credit risk.

Measuring the Impact of Monetary Policy on Mortgage Rates

This study examines the impact of United States monetary policies on domestic mortgage rates, incorporating a holistic set of macroeconomic variables in its analysis. Two obstacles have prevented this integration in the past: the data gap in the federal funds rate during the zero lower bound (ZLB) period; and the utilization of a single equation rather than a system of equations to model the relationship between the mortgage rate and its determinants. First, we establish that the shadow federal funds rate introduced by Wu and Xia (2015) is a valid proxy for monetary policy during the ZLB period, and we use dimensionality reduction to create proxy variables for important macroeconomic measures. Second, we utilize the generalized impulse response approach to measure in level and first difference the impact of monetary policy and the macroeconomic environment on the long-term mortgage rate. Generally, the effect of macroeconomic variables outweighs that of monetary policy. In addition, omitting macroeconomics variables overestimates the impact of monetary policy on the mortgage rate in level and first difference. For example, shocking the first difference (level) of the federal funds rate by one standard deviation overestimates the impulse responses by 15% (51%) and the variance decompositions by 27% (37%). The current research implies that a noticeable increase in the mortgage rate is associated with an economic environment characterized both by tightening monetary policy and strong economic growth. Further, the impact of monetary tightening on the mortgage rate is expected to weaken if secular stagnation continues to prevail.

The Effects of the Incentive for Young and Female Employment Regulated by Law No. 6111 and Macroeconomic Variables on Employment, Informal Employment, and Income

This study examines the effects of macroeconomic variables and the Incentive for Young and Female Employment Regulated by Law No. 6111 in Turkey on employment, informal employment, and income. Electricity consumption (economic growth), USD/TRY exchange rate and inflation have been taken as the macroeconomic variables. Of the employment incentive policies implemented in Turkey, the employment incentive regulated by Law No. 6111 has also been used as a variable. Data have been taken monthly for the period 2012 through 2016. This study is significant because the data regarding the employment incentives implemented in Turkey are the actual data obtained from the Social Security Institution. As a result of the analysis, no significant impact of the Employment Incentive for Young and Female Employment regulated by Law No. 6111 and the examined macroeconomic variables was found on employment. The first lagged value of Inflation, one of the macroeconomic variables used in the study, had statistically significant impacts on the increase in informal employment. From macroeconomic variables, the USD/TRY exchange rate has a negative and relatively high impact. The increase in the exchange rate lowered revenue, as an expected outcome.

DAMPAK VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI PADA VOLATILITAS PADA PASAR MODAL SYARIAH INDONESIA: Pendekatan Model Error Correction

Pasar modal syariah Indonesia terus mengalami perkembangan dan menjadi alternatif investasi. Dibandingkan dengan pasar modal konvensional, pasar modal syariah diyakini lebih kuat terhadap krisis, perubahan fundamental ekonomi dan goncangan pasar keuangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel makroekonomi terhadap Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil penelitian ini adalah naiknya kurs dan harga minyak mentah dunia akan menurunkan Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI), dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek kenaikan BI Rate akan menaikkan Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) dan naiknya tingkat inflasi tidak mempengaruhi Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI).

Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Agricultural Development in Nigeria (1981-2016)

Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Agricultural Development in Nigeria (1981-2016)

Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Third-Party Funds in Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia

The purpose of this article is to look at the long-term and short-term relationships between macroeconomic variables, namely the exchange rate, inflation and IPI to third party funds with Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia. This article uses quantitative research methods, the data used is secondary data with the time series type from January 2014-December 2018, the analytical tool used is VECM, which is a form of VAR detected. Before the final results are obtained, there are several analyzes that must be performed before testing the VECM, namely the stationarity test, the optimal lag test, the cointegration test, the VECM estimate, and finally the impulse response function test. Based on the results of the analysis performed, the results show that for both long and short term exchange rate variables affect deposits, the inflation variable in this investigation period does not affect deposits and the IPI variable has a long term relationship with deposits, while in the short term has no relationship with third party funds. This article contributes to the effect of both long and short term macroeconomic variables on the interest of customers in depositing money with Islamic banks to be used as third party funds with Islamic banks.

Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and Tax Rates on the Six ASEAN Countries Tax Ratio

The tax sector supports a stable process of economic growth and the tax ratio is considered an indicator that can be used to assess the performance of the taxation sector. This study examines the impact of macroeconomic and tax rates on the magnitude of the tax ratio in the case of six ASEAN member countries during the period 1998 to 2018. Data processing was performed using panel data regression using the Generalized Least Square (GLS) method with the STATA program. This study has very interesting results because inflation has a significant influence on the level of a country's tax ratio. The relationship between inflation and taxes is said to be positive, so any increase or decrease in inflation will also cause an increase or decrease also in the taxation sector. In other words, inflation and taxes move in the same direction but with different magnitudes. Countries with a stable macroeconomic situation will create greater opportunities for investment and more jobs are created. This will further increase the purchasing power of consumers and assume the tax burden will be easy for the public

Macroeconomic fundamentals, jump dynamics and expected volatility

In this paper, we develop a new volatility model capturing the effects of macroeconomic variables and jump dynamics on the stock volatility. The proposed GARCH-Jump-MIDAS model is applied to the S&P 500 index. Our in-sample results indicate that macroeconomic activities have important impacts on aggregate market volatility. Out-of-sample evidence suggests that our model with macroeconomic variables significantly outperform a wide range of competitors including the original GARCH(1,1), GARCH-MIDAS and GJR-A-MIDAS models. The volatility timing results also show that the information from jumps and macroeconomic activity is helpful for improving the portfolio performance.

The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Bank Default: A Case Study in Brazil

With the end of the recession from 2014 to 2016, Brazil began a gradual recovery process, with a positive impact on some economic variables — among them, credit financing. Despite this, a robust recovery was not seen in 2019, and 2020 was marked by the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic, which raises questions about the stability of the financial system and the control of defaults. Considering this, the present study explores how macroeconomic variables affected the default of a financial institution’s credit portfolio between January 2014 and April 2019. To perform this analysis, we built a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model that captured the long-term relationships between the default of different credit products and the selected macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that the macroeconomic variables do in fact impact default, however, this behavior is not homogeneous. In general, different credit products respond in different ways to each of the macroeconomic entities: while part of our findings is in line with others in the literature, we also found surprising results for some of the studied relationships.

베이지안 패널 VAR모형을 이용한 거시경제변수가 지역 주택가격에 미치는 영향

베이지안 패널 VAR모형을 이용한 거시경제변수가 지역 주택가격에 미치는 영향

A Study of the Association between Macro-Economic Variables and Stock Return

This research points out the extending effects on stock returns by macroeconomic variables for the period of January 2004 to December 2012. Macroeconomic variables include foreign direct investment, exports of goods and services, GDP, net inflows, Industry - value added, Use of IMF credit, Lending interest rate, consumer prices, Money and quasi money growth and inflation. The results were analyzed using the study of co-integration by Johansen and the analysis of causality by Granger. A long-term vigorous relationship is found between stock returns and chosen macroeconomic variables. Unidirectional Granger causality between two macroeconomic variables and stock returns is also observed. Impulse response analysis shows that every variable except foreign direct investment effects stock returns in one way or another. The results reveal that macroeconomic variables can be studied to determine stock market return movements. The effect of macroeconomic variables on stock market returns and capital market sustainability when designing policies should be considered by policymakers and investors.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables On the Saudi Stock Market

This study aimed at exploring the effect of macroeconomic variables on the activity of the Saudi stock market for the period 1997-2017. Macroeconomic variables were: GDP, interest rate on time deposits, inflation rate. The variables of the Saudi stock market activity were: stock price index, market value of shares, value of traded shares. To achieve this objective, the researcher used the ARDL model for the self-regression of the lagged distributed time gaps.
 The most important results of the research are: The effect of macroeconomic variables on the performance indicators in the Saudi stock market is not important in the short term and is statistically significant in the long term according to the proposed models, so investors in this market can rely on macroeconomic variables in Predict the movement of the stock market and predict long-term profits and losses.

Effects of Macroeconomic Variables, World Gold Prices, World Oil Prices, and Dow Jones Index on Japanese Stock Index Nikkei 225

Japan is the second-largest foreign investor in Indonesia and has a Nikkei 225 stock index, which is the oldest stock index in Asia. This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates, GDP, exchange rates, world gold prices, world oil prices, and Dow Jones index on the Nikkei 225 index. This type of quantitative research with a saturated sampling method (census) is using all data. The research object for the monthly Nikkei 225 index closing price 2006-2016. Data is obtained from the Yahoo Finance website, totaling 132 months. The data analysis technique uses multiple linear regression with IBM SPSS version 23. The results of the study, inflation has no effect because the inflation experienced by Japan is below 2%, Japan's benchmark interest rate has no effect because it only changes four times, the Japanese Yen exchange rate has no effect because investors prefer to invest in Japanese Yen-based investments, Japan's GDP is influential because Japan has experienced an economic recession, world gold prices have no effect because gold as a security asset in investing stocks, world oil prices have no effect because Japan is switching to gas energy, Dow Jones index is influential because America is one of the 5 largest economic cooperation countries with Japan.

Analysis of money supply Indonesia: The vector autoregression model approach

Endogenous money is a major component of the Post Keynesian economy. This refers to the theory that the existence of money in an economy is driven by real economic upheaval. In this study examines the effect of macroeconomic variables on the amount of money in circulation in Indonesia during the period of global economic recession in 2008 and 2016. The analytical tool used was the Vector Autoregression (VAR) in the period January 2006 - July 2016. From the results of the study, that the variable Amount Money Supply, BI Rate, Exchange Rates, Government Revenues and Inflation have a long-term cointegration relationship. VAR estimation results in the short run show that M2 and BI Rate have a positive effect on M2 movement, Government Revenues and Inflation have a negative effect on M2.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Cycle Variation of Housing Sales Price in Seoul : Using HP Filter and Bayesian VAR model

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Cycle Variation of Housing Sales Price in Seoul : Using HP Filter and Bayesian VAR model

Macroeconomic Variables and Private Investment: A Two Dimensional Study from Nigeria Economy

The study investigated the impact of macroeconomic variables on private investment in Nigeria for the period 1990 to 2016. To achieve these objectives, the study tests for the study modeled private equity and private real investment as the function exchange rate, financial sector development, and interest rate, openness of the economy, real gross domestic product, inflation rate and broad money supply. Ordinary least square method of data analysis was used.
 From model one, the study found that real gross domestic product have positive but insignificant effect, openness of the economy have positive and insignificant effect, interest rate have positive and significant effect, financial deepening have positive and insignificant effect while interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate have negative effect on private real investment. The coefficient of determination (R2) proved that the independent variables can explain 62 percent variation on private real investment; the f- statistics found that the model is significant while the Durbin Watson statistics proved the presence of serial autocorrelation. The effect of macroeconomic variables on private equity investment was presented in model two. The study found that openness of the economy; real gross domestic products, broad money supply, and interest rate have negative and insignificant effect on private equity investment except openness of the economy with significant effect. Inflation rate, financial sector deepening and exchange rate have positive and insignificant effect on private equity investment except financial deepening with significant effect. The R2 proved that the independent variables can predict 66.9 percent variation on private equity investment. The f- statistics found that the model is significant while the Durbin Watson statistics proved the presence of serial autocorrelation. We conclude that macroeconomic variable have significant effect on private investment in Nigeria. We recommend that interest rate must be able to encourage higher private investment by increasing the real interstate on private savings or household savings so that larger amount of income would be saved to accumulate more capital and hence private investment. Policies should be formulated by investors and government to discourage factors that affect negatively private investment.

Macroeconomic Variables and Private Investment: A Two Dimensional Study from Nigeria Economy

The study investigated the impact of macroeconomic variables on private investment in Nigeria for the period 1990 to 2016. To achieve these objectives, the study tests for the study modeled private equity and private real investment as the function exchange rate, financial sector development, and interest rate, openness of the economy, real gross domestic product, inflation rate and broad money supply. Ordinary least square method of data analysis was used. From model one, the study found that real gross domestic product have positive but insignificant effect, openness of the economy have positive and insignificant effect, interest rate have positive and significant effect, financial deepening have positive and insignificant effect while interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate have negative effect on private real investment. The coefficient of determination (R2) proved that the independent variables can explain 62 percent variation on private real investment; the f- statistics found that the model is significant while the Durbin Watson statistics proved the presence of serial autocorrelation. The effect of macroeconomic variables on private equity investment was presented in model two. The study found that openness of the economy; real gross domestic products, broad money supply, and interest rate have negative and insignificant effect on private equity investment except openness of the economy with significant effect. Inflation rate, financial sector deepening and exchange rate have positive and insignificant effect on private equity investment except financial deepening with significant effect. The R2 proved that the independent variables can predict 66.9 percent variation on private equity investment. The f- statistics found that the model is significant while the Durbin Watson statistics proved the presence of serial autocorrelation. We conclude that macroeconomic variable have significant effect on private investment in Nigeria. We recommend that interest rate must be able to encourage higher private investment by increasing the real interstate on private savings or household savings so that larger amount of income would be saved to accumulate more capital and hence private investment. Policies should be formulated by investors and government to discourage factors that affect negatively private investment.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Industry Sector Output Growth of Ethiopia

Industrialization plays a key role in the process of a nation’s economic development. The experience of the developed world revealed that industrialization significantly increased their productivity and changed the economic structure. Mainly with the context of reoccurring unstable macroeconomic performance in Ethiopia, analyzing the effect of macroeconomic variables on industry sector output growth is a proper way to design suitable industrial policies. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the effect of some macro-economic variables on the industry output growth in Ethiopia. To do so the study used a time series data ranging from 1991 up to 2018 from Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation of Ethiopia. The study also used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and the Phillip-Perron (PP) unit root tests of stationary, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test to co-integration and error correction model. Accordingly the study confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between industrial output growth and macroeconomic variables. Macroeconomic variables such as, lending rate, inflation rate and trade balance found to be affecting the industrial sector output growth negatively, positively and negatively, respectively in the long run. Therefore, the government has to keep lending rate to the level that could be amenable for firms and maintaining the trade balance; via manipulating the export and import.

INFLATION AND NUMBER OF TAXABLE ENTREPRENEURS (NTE) TOWARDS ADMISSION OF VALUE ADDED TAX (VAT)

This study aims is to determine the effect of macroeconomic variables on inflation and the Number of Taxable Entrepreneurs (NTE) both partially and simultaneously on the receipt of Value Added Tax (VAT). This study uses a quantitative approach. The sampling technique used is purposive sampling. The sample in this study were 3 KPPs in West Java that are KPP Majalaya, KPP Sukabumi, and KPP Tasikmalaya with monthly data of the research period July 2013 - June 2016, the number of sample data used was 108, and analyzed using multiple regression analysis. The results of the study show that inflation partially has a negative and significant effect on VAT receipts. While simultaneously inflation, the number of NTE has a positive and significant effect on VAT receipts

Determinants of Employment Potential in India’s Service Sector: The Post-reform Experience

Service sector in India has grown rapidly in the last one and a half decades. Its growth has been higher than the growth in other commodity-producing sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing sectors. If service sector becomes the leads the growth process, the pertinent questions are what is its potential to generate employment? Can we assume it as the emerging sector to accommodate the surplus labour? In other words, the present paper examines the employment dynamics in both organised and unorganised service sectors by empirically estimates the effects of macro-economic variables by using the data from 1972–1973 to 2011–2012. Considering the Keynesian theoretical explanation about the change in employment which depends on expected output or change in output, the empirical estimations corroborate the view that performance of service sector determines the capacity to generate employment in the sector where employment in organised services is positively influenced by non-services output, lagged output of services, human capital and net export and negatively associated with labour productivity, whereas employment in unorganised services is positively determined by non-services output and lag services output, but negatively influenced by productivity, technology and human capital.