Effects Of Extreme Weather Events Research Articles

Heatwave-like events affect drone production and brood-care behaviour in bumblebees.

Climate change is currently considered one of the major threats to biodiversity and is associated with an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves. Heatwaves create acutely stressful conditions that may lead to disruption in the performance and survival of ecologically and economically important organisms, such as insect pollinators. In this study, we investigated the impact of simulated heatwaves on the performance of queenless microcolonies of Bombus terrestris audax under laboratory conditions. Our results indicate that heatwaves can have significant impacts on bumblebee performance. However, contrary to our expectations, exposure to heatwaves did not affect survival. Exposure to a mild 5-day heatwave (30-32 °C) resulted in increased offspring production compared to those exposed to an extreme heatwave (34-36 °C) and to the control group (24 °C). We also found that brood-care behaviours were impacted by the magnitude of the heatwave. Wing fanning occurred occasionally at temperatures of 30-32 °C, whereas at 34-36 °C the proportion of workers engaged in this thermoregulatory behaviour increased significantly. Our results provide insights into the effects of heatwaves on bumblebee colony performance and underscore the use of microcolonies as a valuable tool for studying the effects of extreme weather events. Future research, especially field-based studies replicating natural foraging conditions, is crucial to complement laboratory-based studies to comprehend how heatwaves compromise the performance of pollinators. Such studies may potentially help to identify those species more resilient to climate change, as well as those that are most vulnerable.

Floods and Climate Change: An Impact on Women and Child Health

The 21st century grapples with numerous challenges, prominently among them being natural disasters and calamities, which endanger human lives globally. Chaotic weather patterns and unpredictable rainfall exacerbate vulnerability, particularly among women and children, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. The perturbation of climatic turmoil disrupts growth and exposes them to health impediments. With floods affecting over two billion people in the past two decades, and climate change exacerbating health risks, urgent action is imperative. The consequences of extreme weather events extend beyond health, impacting human progress and prosperity, with floods alone resulting in significant casualties and financial losses. Women and children, the most vulnerable during such disasters, face immense challenges accessing healthcare and coping with health barriers. Strategic action and compliance with global health authorities are essential to mitigate these challenges and prioritize the well-being of women and children in the face of escalating climate-related incidents.

Vegetation and Dormancy States Identification in Coniferous Plants Based on Hyperspectral Imaging Data

Conifers are a common type of plant used in ornamental horticulture. The prompt diagnosis of the phenological state of coniferous plants using remote sensing is crucial for forecasting the consequences of extreme weather events. This is the first study to identify the “Vegetation” and “Dormancy” states in coniferous plants by analyzing their annual time series of spectral characteristics. The study analyzed Platycladus orientalis, Thuja occidentalis and T. plicata using time series values of 81 vegetation indices and 125 spectral bands. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was used to identify “Vegetation” and “Dormancy” states. The model contained three to four independent variables and achieved a high level of correctness (92.3 to 96.1%) and test accuracy (92.1 to 96.0%). The LDA model assigns the highest weight to vegetation indices that are sensitive to photosynthetic pigments, such as the photochemical reflectance index (PRI), normalized PRI (PRI_norm), the ratio of PRI to coloration index 2 (PRI/CI2), and derivative index 2 (D2). The random forest method also diagnoses the “Vegetation” and “Dormancy” states with high accuracy (97.3%). The vegetation indices chlorophyll/carotenoid index (CCI), PRI, PRI_norm and PRI/CI2 contribute the most to the mean decrease accuracy and mean decrease Gini. Diagnosing the phenological state of conifers throughout the annual cycle will allow for the effective planning of management measures in conifer plantations.

Severe and frequent extreme weather events undermine economic adaptation gains of tree-species diversification

Forests and their provision of ecosystem services are endangered by climate change. Tree-species diversification has been identified as a key adaptation strategy to balance economic risks and returns in forest stands. Yet, whether this synergy between ecology and economics persists under large-scale extreme weather events remains unanswered. Our model accounts for both, small-scale disturbances in individual stands and extreme weather events that cause spatio-temporally correlated disturbances in a large number of neighboring stands. It economically optimizes stand-type allocations in a large forest enterprise with multiple planning units. Novel components are: spatially explicit site heterogeneity and a comparison of economic diversification strategies under local and regionally coordinated planning by simplified measures for α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\alpha$$\\end{document}, β\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\beta$$\\end{document}, and γ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\gamma$$\\end{document}-diversity of stand types. α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\alpha$$\\end{document}-diversity refers to the number and evenness of stand types in local planning units, β\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\beta$$\\end{document}-diversity to the dissimilarity of the species composition across planning units, and γ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\gamma$$\\end{document}-diversity to the number and evenness of stand types in the entire enterprise. Local planning led to stand-type diversification within planning units (α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\alpha$$\\end{document}-diversity), while regionally coordinated planning led to diversification across planning units (β\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\beta$$\\end{document}-diversity). We observed a trend towards homogenization of stand-type composition likely selected under economic objectives with increasing extreme weather events. No diversification strategy fully buffered the adverse economic consequences. This led to fatalistic decisions, i.e., selecting stand types with low investment risks but also low resistance to disturbances. The resulting forest structures indicate potential adverse consequences for other ecosystem services. We conclude that high tree-species diversity may not necessarily buffer economic consequences of extreme weather events. Forest policies reducing forest owners’ investment risks are needed to establish stable forests that provide multiple ecosystem services.

Tikuna Perceptions of Extreme Weather Events: A Case Study on an Indigenous Lands in the Upper Solimões River, Brazil

The synergistic effects of extreme weather events and socioecological vulnerability are still poorly documented for Amazonian indigenous peoples. Herein, we investigated the impacts of recent extreme weather events on Tikuna villages. Tikuna are ancient people of the Amazon, with an estimated population of approximately 53 thousand people widely distributed along the upper Solimões River in the western Brazilian Amazon. The fieldwork was carried out between October 10 and December 10, 2018, using participatory research, including focus group interviews and free-listing exercises. Four extreme weather events were recalled, namely, the extreme floods of 2009, the subsequent extreme drought of 2010, and the extreme floods of 2012 and 2015. The results indicated that Tikuna from some villages are adopting migration from floodplain habitats to nonflooded lands as a coping strategy to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. This process was characterized by famine periods, internal divisions, and increased vulnerability. The three villages have rich traditional knowledge and live on a large diversity of biological resources, base for a fishing economy and for an agroforestry system, the original indigenous subsistence agriculture with a high level of self-sufficiency in terms of food. Until our study, Tikunas had not received any information about the global climate emergency. Our findings can contribute to formulating public policies to provide support for adapting to climate change. These policies must ensure the participation of the Tikuna and other indigenous peoples in local and national discussions on climate change, strengthening their capacity to develop adaptation strategies based on their ancestral knowledge.

Are we joining the One Health dots? A scoping review of research on the one health effects of extreme weather events in eastern Australia.

Extreme weather events such as floods, bushfires, cyclones, and drought, are projected to increase in eastern Australia. Understanding how these events influence the combined, sustainable well-being of humans, animals, and ecosystems - that is One Health - will enable development of transdisciplinary and ultimately more effective interventions. A scoping review was conducted to explore the research associated with the effects of extreme weather events in eastern Australia using a One Health lens, specifically identifying the type of extreme weather events studied, the research conducted in the context of One Health, and gaps to inform improved One Health implementation. The review followed JBI guidelines (based on PRISMA). Eligible research was peer-reviewed, in English, and published since 2007, in which primary research studies investigated the impact of extreme weather events in eastern Australia on at least two of ecosystems, human health, and animal health. Using structured search terms, six databases were searched. Following removal of duplicates, 870 records were screened by two reviewers. Eleven records were eligible for data extraction and charting. The scope of extreme weather events studied was relatively limited, with studies in flood and bushfire settings predominating, but relatively little research on cyclones. Major health themes included more than the impact of extreme weather events on physical health (zoonotic and vector-borne diseases) through investigation of social well-being and mental health in the context of the human-animal bond in evacuation behaviors and drought. Research gaps include studies across a broader range of extreme weather events and health topics, as well as a more comprehensive approach to including the impacts of extreme weather events on all three domains of One Health. The limited research focus inevitably translates to limited recommendations for policy, planning and response to manage extreme weather event emergencies. Given the expected increase in frequency of these events, there is a critical need for more comprehensive primary research to better identify strategies and facilitate implementation of One Health promotion for improved outcomes in extreme weather event emergencies.

Heterogeneous effects of weather extremes on different dimensions of poverty in Kyrgyzstan

Abstract Weather extremes become more frequent and intense with climate change, but how weather extremes impact household wealth in the Global South remains elusive in many regions. We combined nationally representative quarterly household panel data with climate data to evaluate the impact of weather extremes on household poverty in Kyrgyzstan between 2013 and 2020. We evaluated multiple dimensions of poverty by quantifying changes in nutrition, education, health, and living standards. We used a linear quantile mixed model to relate the poverty dimensions with four salient weather extremes: cold winters, hot summers, excessive rains, and dry spells. Our findings show that all weather extremes harmed household wealth but with substantial spatial variation. Cold winters were the most detrimental, with negative consequences that continued into the subsequent year. Poor households suffered disproportionally more from extremes than rich ones. Our results underscore the need to initiate place-based adaptation options to cushion the adverse effects of extreme weather events on household wealth.

Effects of Extreme Weather Events on Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Rice-Wheat Rotation Croplands.

Cropland ecosystems are significant emission sources of N2O, but a limited number of studies have focused on the impact of extreme weather events on N2O fluxes from cropland. This present study integrated field observations and model simulations to explore the responses of N2O fluxes to extreme weather events in typical rice and wheat rotation croplands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in China. The findings revealed that the studied rice-wheat rotation cropland exhibited a net source of N2O over the three-year monitoring period, with annual cumulative N2O emissions ranging from 190.4 to 261.8 mg N m-2. N2O emissions during the rice and wheat growing seasons accounted for 29% and 71% of the total yearly emissions, respectively. Extreme heat events led to a 23% to 32% increase in observed N2O emissions from cropland. Observed N2O emissions from irrigated rice fields during extreme precipitation events were 45% lower than those during extreme drought events. In contrast, extreme precipitation events raised observed N2O emissions from rain-fed wheat fields by 36% compared to the multi-year average, while extreme drought events reduced N2O emissions from wheat fields by 20%. Regional simulations indicated that annual cumulative N2O emissions from croplands in the MLRYR are projected to increase from 207.8 mg N m-2 under current climate to 303.4 mg N m-2 in the future. Given the episodic nature and uncertainties associated with N2O emissions from cropland, further validation is necessary for utilizing the model to explore the effects of extreme weather events on N2O in cropland ecosystems.

Exploring the relationship between extreme weather events, urbanization, and food insecurity: Institutional quality perspective

This study examines the potential for institutional quality to address Africa's trilemma of food insecurity, rapid urbanization, and extreme weather events.Using a two-stage least squares regression analysis of 28 African countries between 2012Q1 and 2021Q4, our results suggest that extreme weather events have a significant negative impact on food security, particularly in urban areas.We found that institutional quality can have a significant positive impact on food security and can mitigate the negative effects of extreme weather events on food security. Our study also decomposed the food security index into its four components and found that extreme weather events negatively affect the affordability, availability, quality, and natural resource resilience of food. The findings are robust to the use of the feasible generalized least squares and panel-corrected standard errors estimation techniques.The policy implications of our study are significant, as our findings suggest that central governments can take practical steps to minimize the impact of extreme weather events on food security. Specifically, investing in disaster preparedness, improving infrastructure, and promoting agricultural development can all help improve food security. Additionally, improving institutional quality can be an effective way to mitigate the negative impact of extreme weather events on food security.

The association between acute otitis externa-related emergency department visits and extreme weather events in a temperate continental climate

BackgroundClimate change is a global challenge that is resulting in an increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Extreme weather events have been shown to negatively impact various health conditions, leading to an overall increase in morbidity and mortality. Ear, nose, and throat (ENT) emergencies are among the most common reasons for emergency department visits (EV). Acute otitis externa (AOE), an inflammatory external auditory canal skin infection, is the second most common condition for ENT-related emergency admissions. Previously, AOE has been associated with higher temperatures during summer; However, no data exists on extreme weather events’ immediate and delayed effects on AOE-related EVs. Identifying these relationships could help predict EVs, optimize health resources, and relieve its significant burden on healthcare systems. ObjectiveThis study aimed to associate the effects of extreme weather events with the immediate and delayed risk of AOE-related EVs. MethodsA total of 1522 AOE-related EVs from the ENT outpatient clinic of the Vienna General Hospital between 2015 and 2018 were analyzed. Meteorological data for the same study period was obtained from the Austrian Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics for Vienna and a distributed lag non-linear model used to associate extreme weather events with the total number of AOE-related EVs. Relative risk (RR) and cumulative RR were analyzed over a period of 14 days. ResultsAOE-related EVs showed a pronounced seasonality, with the highest occurrence in summer. The RR for AOE-related EVs was significantly increased one day after high-temperature events for seven days, to a maximum of 1.95 [1.04–3.65]. Low and high relative humidity significantly reduced the same-day occurrence of AOE-related EVs to 0.65 [0.46–0.92] and 0.74 [0.58–0.95]. Increased precipitation and wind speed significantly decreased the RR of AOE-related EVs four and seven days after occurrence. After one day, low atmospheric pressure events showed an increased RR of 1.42 [1.02–1.98] in AOE-related EVs. ConclusionsExtreme weather events significantly impact AOE-related EVs. While high mean temperatures were positively correlated with AOE-related EVs, low humidity was found to have a negative same-day effect, supporting the idea of multiple factors being involved in increasing the susceptibility for AOE. Knowledge of the pattern of events could allow the implementation of time-optimized prevention strategies to reduce the incidence of AOE, the frequency of EVs, and the burden on health care systems.

Agricultural value chains and food security in the Pacific: Evidence from Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands

Small island developing states in the Pacific face multiple development challenges driven by rapid population growth and high transportation costs due to remoteness and isolation. Combined with the adverse consequences of extreme weather events and climate change, these challenges exacerbate poverty and food insecurity. Agricultural value chain development presents a pathway to poverty reduction and food security. In this paper, we assess the impacts of two value chain development projects in Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands on dietary diversity and food security of small-scale producers. Project impacts on dietary diversity are positive and significant in both countries, but improved food security is only observed in Solomon Islands. These impacts are mainly driven by crop yields, value of crop production and sales, crop diversification and share of crop sales. We find that treatment households are more likely to consume less nutritious foods such as sweets and oils. Our findings expand the literature in a data-scarce region and caution that value chain interventions without nutrition-focused components to induce behavioral change may have unintended impacts on healthy diets.

Acoustical effects of extreme weather events

The transfer of water from evaporating regions to precipitating regions drives the global water cycle, and understanding its dynamics is essential in determining how weather patterns will respond to changes in global climate. An intensification of the global water cycle has been reported using 50-year sea surface salinity data (Durack and Wijffels, 2010, J. Climate) with the consequence of more frequent extreme weather events. However, data under extreme weather conditions over the ocean are rare and a lot of physics remains to be investigated. As part of the Ocean Climate Stations that NOAA is maintaining, the 1-year data presented here are from Ocean Station Papa (50°N, 145°W), including measurements of wind speed, rain rate, currents, wave height and direction, bubble plume spatial structure and dynamics, and ambient noise for wind speeds up to 25 m/s. This full suite of data enables the study of the statistical properties of bubble plumes, their relation to meteorological parameters, and how to take them into account in ambient noise prediction, especially under severe weather conditions. Knowledge gained through this unique dataset can be critical for understanding air–sea interaction, validating satellite rain products, and predicting the ambient noise field under extreme weather conditions.

The effects of extreme weather events and seasonal fluctuations on diarrhea prevalence in the Asia-Pacific region

The effects of extreme weather events and seasonal fluctuations on diarrhea prevalence in the Asia-Pacific region

Is internal migration a way to cope with weather extremes? Evidence from Egypt

PurposeIn this study, the authors examine the push and pull effects of extreme weather events on migration among governorates in Egypt.Design/methodology/approachTo estimate the effect of extreme weather events on internal migration, the authors use migration gravity models and data from the 1996 and 2006 Population and Housing Censuses. The authors measure weather extremes by the number of months in the past 36 months with temperatures or precipitation of a governorate below the 5th percentile and above the 95th percentile of the distribution of monthly temperatures or precipitation of the corresponding governorate during the period 1900–2006.FindingsThis study’s results suggest that high temperatures in the origin area act as a push factor. High-temperature extremes have a positive effect on out-migration. A 1% increase in the number of months with high-temperature extremes in the original governorate results in a 0.1% increase in the number of out-migrants.Practical implicationsThe study suggests that people may respond to weather extremes through migration. However, climate migrants in Egypt may encounter several significant risks that authorities must address.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first attempts to measure the push and pull effect of weather extremes on migration in Egypt.

Do Flood and Heatwave Experiences Shape Climate Opinion? Causal Evidence from Flooding and Heatwaves in England and Wales

Understanding how personal experience of extreme weather events raises awareness and concern about climate change has important policy implications. It has repeatedly been argued that proximising climate change through extreme weather events holds a promising strategy to increase engagement with the issue and encourage climate change action. In this paper, we exploit geo-referenced panel data on climate change attitudes as well as natural variation in flood and heatwave exposure in England and Wales to estimate the causal effect of extreme weather events on climate change attitudes and environmental behaviours using a difference-in-differences matching approach. Our findings suggest that personal experience with both flooding and heatwaves significantly increases risk perception towards climate change impacts but has no effect on climate change concern or pro-environmental behaviour, on average. Moreover, the findings indicate that the effect of flooding on risk perception is highly localised and diminishes at greater distances. For heatwaves, we find that the effect on risk perception is driven by the recent salient summer heatwaves of 2018 and 2019. Having experienced both events also significantly increases climate change concern and pro-environmental behaviour, in addition to risk perception.

Extreme weather and asthma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Climate change's influence on extreme weather events poses a significant threat to the morbidity and mortality of asthma patients. The aim of this study was to examine associations between extreme weather events and asthma-related outcomes. A systematic literature search for relevant studies was performed using the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and ProQuest databases. Fixed-effects and random-effects models were applied to estimate the effects of extreme weather events on asthma-related outcomes. We observed that extreme weather events were associated with increasing risks of general asthma outcomes with relative risks of 1.18-fold for asthma events (95% CI 1.13-1.24), 1.10-fold for asthma symptoms (95% CI 1.03-1.18) and 1.09-fold for asthma diagnoses (95% CI 1.00-1.19). Extreme weather events were associated with increased risks of acute asthma exacerbation with risk ratios of asthma emergency department visits of 1.25-fold (95% CI 1.14-1.37), of asthma hospital admissions of 1.10-fold (95% CI 1.04-1.17), of asthma outpatient visits of 1.19-fold (95% CI 1.06-1.34) and of asthma mortality of 2.10-fold (95% CI 1.35-3.27). Additionally, an increase in extreme weather events increased risk ratios of asthma events by 1.19-fold in children and 1.29-fold in females (95% CI 1.08-1.32 and 95% CI 0.98-1.69, respectively). Thunderstorms increased the risk ratio of asthma events by 1.24-fold (95% CI 1.13-1.36). Our study showed that extreme weather events more prominently increased the risk of asthma morbidity and mortality in children and females. Climate change is a critical concern for asthma control.

Integrated analysis shows how the effects of extreme flooding events propagate through fish communities to impact amphibians.

Research Highlight: Davis, C. L., Walls, S. C., Barichivich, W. J., Brown, M. E., & Miller, D. A. (2022). Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities. Journal of Animal Ecology, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13874. Catastrophic events such as floods, hurricanes, winter storms, droughts and wildfires increasingly touch our lives either directly or indirectly. These events draw our attention to the seriousness of changes in climate not only to human well-being but also to the integrity of ecological systems upon which we depend. Understanding the impacts of extreme events on ecological systems requires the ability to characterize the cascading effects of environmental changes on the environments in which organisms live and the altered biological interactions produced. This scientific ambition represents no small challenge for the study of animal communities, which are typically difficult to census as well as dynamic in time and space. Davis et al. (2022) in a recent study in the Journal of Animal Ecology examined the amphibian and fish communities found in depressional coastal wetlands to better understand how they respond to major rainfall and flooding events. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey's Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative provided an 8-year record of observations as well as environmental measurements. For this study, the authors integrated techniques for assessing the dynamics of animal populations with a Bayesian implementation of structural equation modelling. Using their integrated methodological approach permitted the authors to reveal the direct and indirect effects of extreme weather events on co-occurring amphibian and fish communities while accounting for observational uncertainty and temporal variation in population-level processes. Their findings indicate that the most prominent effects of flooding on the amphibian community were caused by changes in the fish community that led to increased predation and resource competition. In their conclusions, the authors emphasize the importance of understanding networks of abiotic and biotic effects if we are to predict and mitigate the influence of extreme weather events.

Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change for Birthing People and the Provider's Role.

Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change for Birthing People and the Provider's Role.

Exploring the effects of extreme weather events on methane emissions from croplands: A study combining site and global modeling

Croplands, especially rice paddies, are important anthropogenic sources of methane (CH4) emission. Currently, the effects of extreme weather events, which are occurring more frequently with climate warming, on CH4 emissions from croplands still remain uncertain. In this study, we calibrated the CLM5BGCCrop model and implemented it to nine cropland sites and global simulations, in order to a) analyze the spatial and temporal variations of CH4 emissions from different crop and climate types, b) identify corresponding environmental controlling factors, and c) investigate the effects of extreme weather events on CH4 emissions. The results show that parameterized CLM5BGCCrop could simulate CH4 emissions from croplands well at both site and global scales. The simulated CH4 emissions from rice paddies (44.35 Tg CH4 yr−1) are 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than those from corn (0.38 Tg CH4 yr−1) and wheat (2.57 Tg CH4 yr−1) fields. Soil water content is the key factor affecting global CH4 emissions from croplands under present and future climate. Extreme high-temperature events occurring during the rice booting-flowering stage could reduce the CH4 emissions by 28%, while the CH4 emissions could be increased by 12–16% when extreme high-temperature events occurred during the rice milky-maturity stage. Extreme precipitation events increased CH4 emissions by 7% at the rice paddy site. At the global scale, extreme high temperature increased CH4 emissions from rice paddies by 8% at middle latitudes, in contrast, extreme high temperature reduced corresponding emissions by 12% at low latitudes, but the decrease in CH4 emissions from rice paddies at low latitudes will be reversed to a 9% increase in 2081–2100. Overall, the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in future may lead to increased global CH4 emissions from croplands.

The effect of extreme weather events on child nutrition and health

This study traces the causal effects of extreme weather events on nutritional and health outcomes among rural children in Uganda using four waves of individual child survey data (2009–2014). A simultaneous regression model was applied for causal inference while also accounting for households’ adaptive responses. The study finds the evidence of a significant negative relationship between extreme weather events and availability of calories and nutrients for children. In particular, droughts reduced calorie, protein and zinc supply, and overall diet diversity by 67%, 37%, 28% and 30%, respectively. We further traced the effects of this reduced calorie and nutrient availability on child health indicators. A 10% decrease in zinc supply decreased height-for-age z-scores (HAZ) by around 0.139 - 0.164 standard deviations (SD), and increased probability of stunting ranging from 3.1 to 3.5 percentage points. Both boys and girls HAZ and stunting rates were sensitive to nutrient inadequacies. Different coping and adaptation strategies significantly influenced rural households’ ability to safeguard children’s nutrition and health against the effects of extreme weather. The findings of this study provide specific insights for building ex-ante resilience against extreme weather events, particularly when compared to ex-post, unsustainable, and often costlier relief actions.