Effects Of Confirmation Bias Research Articles

A Study on Influence of Behavioural Biases on Investment Decision of Young Investors in Coimbatore City

This study investigates the influences of cognitive biases on the investment behaviour of the youth of the city of Coimbatore. The main purpose of this study will be to explore the idea that individuals who engage in stock market activities and have different types of biases such as Overconfidence, Anchoring, Loss Aversion, Confirmation and Herding perceive to have the power to affect their investment choices. The study involved 120 investors aged 18-29. The study uncovered various behavioural biases that significantly affected the investment decision-making process among young investors. Anchoring Bias was proven the most significantly influencing bias of investment decisions, followed by Overconfidence Bias and Loss Aversion Bias. The information provided suggests that the effect of Confirmation Bias and Herding Bias on decision-making is insignificant.

The effect of confirmation bias and racial stereotypes on perceptions of guilt and interrogation strategy decisions

AbstractWe examined whether racial stereotypes and guilt bias could affect perceptions of suspects and decisions in investigations. In three studies, participants read about a case, provided guilt judgments, and suggested questions they would ask a suspect. In all studies we manipulated race‐based stereotypes and guilt bias using different methods and operationalizations to provide a robust test of our hypotheses. In Experiment 1, we found that participants asked more guilt‐presumptive questions to the subject they decided was guilty. In Experiment 2, we found that when presented with more incriminating evidence, participants perceived suspects as more guilty and chose/generated more guilt‐presumptive questions. In Experiment 3, we found that those with less incriminating evidence reported lower levels of guilt and chose more coercive techniques. Our findings highlight the complexity of racial stereotypes and confirmation bias within investigation decision‐making.

The role of social media and confirmation bias in victimization: Information consumption and opinion polarization

Technological advancement has contributed to the smooth and fast communication system where social media remain the top priority for human kind. Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias of human tendency to deducting information. Therefore, getting biased through unconfirmed media stories became a disease to the modern society. This article aims to explore and analyse the phenomenon of confirmation bias in cyber media, focusing on its impact on information consumption and polarization of opinions within online environments. Drawing upon existing literature and theoretical frameworks, namely Social Identity Theory, Cognitive Dissonance Theory, Selective Exposure Theory, and Agenda Setting Theory, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms and effects of confirmation bias in the digital age. The research design combines qualitative analysis of selected scholarly articles and quantitative analysis of user data from social media platforms. The analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of the impact of confirmation biases in cyber media by synthesizing insights from scholarly literature and analysing user data. It helps identify the mechanisms through which confirmation biases manifest in online environments, sheds light on the potential consequences of such biases, and informs strategies for addressing and mitigating their effects.

정보원의 공신력이 오정보의 진위여부 판단에 미치는 영향: 수용자 속성의 조절효과를 중심으로

Few people will be able to live a day without being exposed to information. Whether it"s through books, YouTube or Internet searches, people live by searching and accepting various information every day, with different routes. However, compared to the vast amount of information, people have physical limitations, including time and cognition, so they process all the information exposed to them in their own ways. Among the various problems that may occur in this process, the damage caused by the inclusion of misinformation in the individual"s information acceptance process is so great that it cannot be overlooked. Therefore, in order to create a healthy information accepting environment, this study focused on exploring factors that affect the process of recognizing information as fact or false when people encounter it. As a result of empirical analysis of the structural model using PLS-SEM, the source"s credibility had a significant effect on the perceived falsity of the information. It was also confirmed that the effect of confirmation bias was significant among the moderating effects of the three receiver characteristics. In other words, the greater the belief in the source who provides information, the higher the level of a true recognition of the provided information, and the difference in the degree of influence of public confidence on the information acceptance process is occurred depending on each person"s opinion.

Searching for Similarity

Throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries regulations on expert testimony have sought to minimize the impact of disagreeing experts. Yet, disagreements between forensic musicologists still play a large role in contemporary music copyright decisions. This paper suggests that the disagreement between partisan experts is due, in part, to confirmation bias rather than ethical or financial allegiance. An expert hired by a plaintiff, or the party alleging copyright infringement, may start their analysis by searching for similarities between two works. On the other hand, an expert retained by the defendant, or the party denying infringement, may start their analysis by searching for differences. Given the multiple musical components present in even the “simplest” musical work, both starting points will lead to valid observations about the work, allowing for expert disagreement. This article uses a hypothetical case study to demonstrate the risk of confirmation bias in forensic musicology and concludes by proposing that appointing a panel of third-party musicologists to conduct forensic analyses from a neutral starting point could minimize the effect of confirmation bias in such cases.

Confirmation Bias in Analysts’ Response to Consensus Forecasts

This paper provides evidence of confirmation bias by sell-side analysts in their earnings forecasts. We show that analysts tend to put higher weight on public information when the current forecast consensus is more consistent with their previous forecasts. Our results further suggest that the effect of confirmation bias on analyst forecasts is distinct from that of conservatism, self-attribution bias, or overconfidence. We find that analysts with better forecasting performance, shorter experience following a firm, providing earlier forecasts, or facing more dispersion in peer forecasts, tend to be less subject to confirmation bias, consistent with existing cognitive and social psychology theories.

Blind Observers of the Sky

The concept of blind analysis, a key procedure to remove the human-based systematic error called confirmation bias, has long been an integral part of data analysis in many research areas. In cosmology, blind analysis is recently making its entrance, as the field progresses into a fully fledged high-precision science. The credibility, reliability and robustness of results from future sky-surveys will dramatically increase if the effect of confirmation bias is kept under control by using an appropriate blinding procedure. Here, we present a catalog-level blinding scheme for galaxy clustering data apt to be used in future spectroscopic galaxy surveys. We shift the individual galaxy positions along the line of sight based on 1) a geometric shift mimicking the Alcock-Paczynski effect and 2) a perturbative shift akin to redshift-space distortions. This procedure has several advantages. After combining the two steps above, it is almost impossible to accidentally unblind. The procedure induces a shift in cosmological parameters without changing the galaxies' angular positions, hence without interfering with the effects of angular systematics. Since the method is applied at catalog level, there is no need to adopt several blinding schemes tuned to different summary statistics, likelihood choices or types of analyses. By testing the method on mock catalogs and the BOSS DR12 catalog we demonstrate its performance in blinding galaxy clustering data for relevant cosmological parameters sensitive to the background expansion rate and the growth rate of structures. We publicly release our data products at https://github.com/SamuelBrieden/BlindingCatalogs.

Partner rotation or extended rotations? The effect of confirmation bias and motivated reasoning bias on objectivity and independence: A framework

Partner rotation or extended rotations? The effect of confirmation bias and motivated reasoning bias on objectivity and independence: A framework

Beware the Mental Pitfalls: Confirmation Bias in Accounting

Confirmation bias seems to be widespread in many areas of our everyday life, ranging from political discussion and opinion to many aspects of business, including accounting. In the field of financial investing, Lazaroff (2016) found that when making financial investment decisions, investors have a habit of collecting evidence that confirms their decisions, instead of taking into consideration all available evidence. The effect of confirmation bias can be even more significant with prevailing beliefs. The reason for that is because people are more likely to accept information that confirms existing beliefs while more carefully scrutinizing evidence that questions those beliefs.

Confirming Signals are Hard to Resist: Blessing and Curse of Information Under Confirmation Bias

Ample empirical evidence documents that individuals pay more attention to confirming than to contradicting evidence. In the context of the so-called confirmation bias, we first study the effects of additional information on perception correctness - contrasting the competing effects of total signal precision and the possibility to search for the most suitable signal. We provide the testable hypothesis that managers inform about bad news in a more diffuse signal compared to good news. This in turn provides an explanation of the dispersion anomaly: disperse signals are followed by underperformance. Second, we study the effects of confirmation bias in an overlapping generations model with a continuous signal distribution. Several results of more simplified models do not hold true any longer - e.g. confirmation bias leads to initial underreaction instead of overreaction. In a framework with endogenous market entry and exit, this initial underreaction triggers subsequent overreaction. This momentum effect is accompanied by time varying market participation, announcement day and market depth effects.

The Effect of Confirmation Bias Following Previous Information for Evaluating Emotional-behavioral Problems Using a Projective Drawing Test

The Effect of Confirmation Bias Following Previous Information for Evaluating Emotional-behavioral Problems Using a Projective Drawing Test

Biased evaluation of incriminating and exonerating (non)evidence

Recent evidence suggests that convictions in criminal procedures are susceptible to biased decision making. In this study, the potential detrimental effects of confirmation bias and the feature positive effect (FPE) were explored. The former states that decision-makers will be more impressed by incriminating than by exonerating evidence. The latter states that they assign more weight to finding evidence than to the failure to secure it, even though the absence of evidence can be as diagnostic as its presence. Law students read a case file about a fistfight. The evidence was manipulated such that the effect of confirmation bias and FPE on guilt estimation and conviction rate could be assessed. Findings partly confirmed the presence of both a confirmation bias and an FPE.

The Influence of Client Preferences on Tax Professionals' Search for Judicial Precedents, Subsequent Judgments and Recommendations

Tax professionals provide valuable services to clients by reducing uncertainty about how clients should report transactions on their tax returns. To reduce uncertainty, tax professionals research applicable authorities (e.g., judicial precedents) and provide assessments to clients of the level of authoritative support for client-favorable positions. Tax professionals have strong incentives to make accurate assessments of the strength of client-preferred positions so that clients will understand the level of risk associated with the reporting position. Further, tax professionals must make accurate assessments of authoritative support in order to maintain compliance with tax professional standards and Federal income tax regulations. Incentives notwithstanding, psychological research on confirmation bias suggests that tax professionals' client advocacy role may inhibit professionals' ability to search objectively for relevant tax authority which, in turn, might inhibit their ability to accurately assess authoritative support. We report the results of two studies that examine causes and effects of confirmation bias in tax information search. In study 1, we find that subjects' information searches emphasized cases with conclusions consistent with the client's desired outcome (i.e., positive cases) over cases inconsistent with the client's desired outcome (i.e., negative cases), despite the fact that positive cases were no more similar to the client's facts. Additional analyses indicate that the extent of this confirmation bias was positively related to their assessments of the likelihood that a neutral court would resolve the issue in the client's favor and this in turn increased the strength with which they recommended the client's preferred tax position. Results of study 2 indicate that confirmation bias induced by client preferences can be strong enough to not only result in inaccurate assessments of authoritative support for the client-favored position, which is problematic in and of itself, but also to lead tax professionals to make overly aggressive recommendations.