To explore the effects of air pollution control strategies on air quality, vegetation, and health, we conducted an integrated modeling analysis for a representative industrial city, Zibo in the North China Plain, China. Two air pollution control scenarios for the near future (year 2026) are developed, including basic and strict control scenarios. The integrated modeling system based on Weather Research and Forecasting-Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling (WRF-CMAQ) is utilized to analyze the effects of different scenarios on air quality improvement, vegetation, and health effects. Results indicate that under the basic (strict) control scenarios, the emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM2.5), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH3) will be reduced by 16% (53%), 14% (24%), 16% (38%), 9% (28%), and 12% (12%) respectively, together with a 15% reduction in emissions of NOx, SO2, VOCs, PM2.5, along with a 5% reduction in NH3 emissions in the vicinity of Zibo in the year 2026, could meet the air quality target for 2026 (with PM2.5 and MDA8 O3_90% at 38 and 185 μg/m³, respectively). In terms of crop yield, under the basic (strict) control scenarios, the ozone-induced yield loss for wheat and corn is expected to increase by 30,000 tonnes (decrease by 80,000 tonnes) and 6000 tonnes (decrease by 4000 tonnes), respectively. In the basic control scenario, the number of deaths due to changes in PM2.5 is 1210 (95% Cl: 950, 1472) and the number of deaths due to O3-related changes is 1042 (95% Cl: 780, 1304). In the strict control scenario, the number of deaths due to PM2.5 changes was 1180 (95% Cl: 992, 1366) and the number of deaths due to O3-related changes was 768 (95% Cl: 581, 955). Our results provide a scientific basis for governments to formulate future air pollution prevention strategies.
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