Regional Ecosystem Research Articles

Thawing Permafrost Is Affecting Climate, but It’s Unclear by How Much

Models produce widely varying estimates of how ecosystems in the northern permafrost region are currently affecting the global greenhouse gas budget.

Mastering Snow Analysis: Enhancing Sampling Techniques and Introducing ACF Extraction Method with Applications in Svalbard

Semi-volatile organic contaminants (SVOCs) are known for their tendency to evaporate from source regions and undergo atmospheric transport to distant areas. Cold condensation intensifies dry deposition, particle deposition, and scavenging by snow and rain, allowing SVOCs to move from the atmosphere into terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in alpine and polar regions. However, no standardized methods exist for the sampling, laboratory processing, and instrumental analysis of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in snow. The lack of reference methods makes these steps highly variable and prone to errors. This study critically reviews the existing literature to highlight the key challenges in the sampling phase, aiming to develop a reliable, consistent, and easily reproducible technique. The goal is to simplify this crucial step of the analysis, allowing data to be shared more effectively through standardized methods, minimizing errors. Additionally, an innovative method for laboratory processing is introduced, which uses activated carbon fibers (ACFs) as adsorbents, streamlining the analysis process. The extraction method is applied to analyze polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) and chlorinated pesticides (α-HCH, γ-HCH, p,p′-DDE, o,p′-DDT, HCB, and PeCB). The entire procedure, from sampling to instrumental analysis, is subsequently tested on snow samples collected on the Svalbard Islands. To validate the efficiency of the new extraction system, quality control measures based on the EPA methods 1668B and 1699 for aqueous methods are employed. This study presents a new, reliable method that covers both sampling and lab analysis, tailored for detecting POPs in snow.

A Model that Explains the Contrasting SST Trends in the Southern Pacific Ocean

Sea surface temperature (SST) of the southern Pacific Ocean plays an important role in ocean-atmospheric interactions, influencing both regional and global climate and ecosystems. The contrasting SST trends in the southern Pacific Ocean during 1993-2021 are noted by analyzing satellite and in-situ datasets, consisting of SST warming trend (0.05℃·yr−1) in the region of 80°W-180,30°S-50°S and cooling trend (−0.04℃·yr−1) in the area of 60°W-150°W, 55°S-70°S. A detailed trend analysis for the wind and sea ice concentration suggest that Ekman transport and sea ice radiative positive feedback are the two key contributors to the contrasting SST trends. The intensified downwelling (upwelling), induced by the Ekman transport and strengthened westerlies, gives rise to warm (cold) water swarming in (upturning) from lower latitudes (deeper ocean), which causes SST warming (cooling). Moreover, the sea ice increase at higher latitudes, due to both the cold water transport from deeper ocean layers and broken ice transport from polar regions, strengthens the cooling trend through sea ice positive radiative feedback. In conclusion, these findings underscore the complexity of SST trends in the southern Pacific Ocean, highlighting the critical roles of Ekman transport and sea ice radiative feedback in shaping regional climate dynamics.Plain Language Summary: The southern Pacific Ocean is an indispensable part in the climate system while it still remained poorly observed. The SST trend is regarded as a critical indicator of global climate change. Using the satellite and in-situ datasets, we find that the contrasting SST trends from 1993 to 2021, one area in this region is warmed by 0.3℃ per decade, while another area is cooled by -0.1℃ per decade. Considering impacts of various factors such as wind, sea ice and radiation, the primarily explanation is that wind-driven warm (cold) water from the subtropics (deeper ocean) flows in and goes downward (goes upward and flow away) in the warm (cold) area through oceanic circulation and leads to the SST warming (cooling). Additionally, the cooling trend is also related to the cold water that flows to higher latitudes and forms ice there and at the same time, trash ice from polar regions driven by enhanced south wind speed will be transported there. As a result, ice increases, reflects more shortwave radiation to space, and surface downward shortwave radiation decreases which contributes to SST decreases.

Space-Based Mapping of Pre- and Post-Hurricane Mangrove Canopy Heights Using Machine Learning with Multi-Sensor Observations

Coastal mangrove forests provide numerous ecosystem services, which can be disrupted by natural disturbances, mainly hurricanes. Canopy height (CH) is a key parameter for estimating carbon storage. Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is widely viewed as the most accurate method for estimating CH but data are often limited in spatial coverage and are not readily available for rapid impact assessment after hurricane events. Hence, we evaluated the use of systematically acquired space-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical observations with airborne LiDAR to predict CH across expansive mangrove areas in South Florida that were severely impacted by Category 3 Hurricane Irma in 2017. We used pre- and post-Irma LiDAR-derived canopy height models (CHMs) to train Random Forest regression models that used features of Sentinel-1 SAR time series, Landsat-8 optical, and classified mangrove maps. We evaluated (1) spatial transfer learning to predict regional CH for both time periods and (2) temporal transfer learning coupled with species-specific error correction models to predict post-Irma CH using models trained by pre-Irma data. Model performance of SAR and optical data differed with time period and across height classes. For spatial transfer, SAR data models achieved higher accuracy than optical models for post-Irma, while the opposite was the case for the pre-Irma period. For temporal transfer, SAR models were more accurate for tall trees (>10 m) but optical models were more accurate for short trees. By fusing data of both sensors, spatial and temporal transfer learning achieved the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 1.9 m and 1.7 m, respectively, for absolute CH. Predicted CH losses were comparable with LiDAR-derived reference values across height and species classes. Spatial and temporal transfer learning techniques applied to readily available spaceborne satellite data can enable conservation managers to assess the impacts of disturbances on regional coastal ecosystems efficiently and within a practical timeframe after a disturbance event.

The Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Temperature Variability Across Mts. Qinling: A Comparative Study from 1971 to 2022

Analyzing the spatiotemporal patterns of atmospheric temperature in sensitive areas is critically important for understanding the broader implications of global climate change, which remains a prominent topic in geosciences. It also plays a crucial role in advancing sustainable development. This study utilized daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature data from twelve meteorological stations across the South and North Mts. Qinling (Qinling Mountains). Employing trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall mutation test, and Morlet wavelet analysis, we explored the predominant temperature trends and characteristics from 1971 to 2022. Our findings revealed consistent inter-annual warming trends in both regions, with more rapid temperature increases in the North compared to the South. Notably, significant shifts occurred in 2003 for both mean and minimum temperatures in the North, while the maximum and minimum temperature values were recorded in the 2010s and 1980s, respectively. Both regions exhibited a primary temperature fluctuation cycle of 28 years. Seasonally, the strongest warming effects appeared in spring, with the weakest in autumn, and moderate effects in winter and summer, indicating that spring contributes most significantly to regional warming. Monthly analysis showed positive temperature trends across all months, with higher rates in the North. The weakening temperature boundary effect of the Mts. Qinling suggested a weakening North–South division, particularly highlighted by the northward shift of the 1 °C isotherm curve for the coldest month, moving away from the previously observed 0 °C isotherm. This northward shift highlights the differential warming rates between the northern and southern regions. Overall, the analysis confirms a robust warming trend, with notable fluctuations in January’s temperatures since 1998, suggesting the Mts. Qinling’s emerging role as a climatic divider in the Chinese Mainland. This introduces new challenges for regional ecosystems, agricultural production, and water resource management, highlighting the pressing need to advance regional sustainable development in the face of climate change.

Saltwater intrusion simulations in coastal karstic aquifers related to climate change scenarios

Coastal zones are crucial ecosystems supporting significant biodiversity and pertinent socio-economic activities. However, anthropogenic development contributes to socio-environmental complexities, particularly public water supply threats caused by climate change. This research presents a case study on the north-western coast of Yucatan, Mexico, which models potential saltwater intrusion in groundwater for multiple projections of sea level rise and recharge change due to climate change and its implications for the public water supply of the regional population and ecosystem. For this purpose, a previously calibrated and validated numerical model is employed, adapting its boundary conditions, keeping its calibrated hydrogeologic parameters, and considering the 2040 and 2100 climate change projections. Simulation results show that under these projections, significant saltwater intrusion may occur, reducing freshwater thickness due to increased salinity in groundwater and a loss of freshwater sources resulting from brackish-saline wedge intrusion. These scenarios are of particular concern as freshwater in this coastal region is the main source for public water supply and for freshwater input in coastal ecosystems. Moreover, this study underscores the susceptibility of karstic aquifers to salinization, especially in the face of rising sea levels, given their unique hydrogeological characteristics and substantial responsiveness to marine forcings. In spite of the uncertainties in global climate change predictions, this study enhances our understanding of the dynamics of these unique aquifers, and presents future saltwater intrusion projections that offer valuable technical insights to design and implement pertinent and resilient coastal aquifer management strategies.

Anomalous wet summers and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase the CO2 sink in a poorly drained forest on permafrost

At the northern high latitudes, rapid warming, associated changes in the hydrological cycle, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, [CO2], are observed at present. Under rapid environmental changes, it is important to understand the current and future trajectories of the CO2 budget in high-latitude ecosystems. In this study, we present the importance of anomalous wet conditions and rising [CO2] on the long-term CO2 budget based on two decades (2003-2022) of quasicontinuous measurements of CO2 flux at a poorly drained black spruce forest on permafrost peat in interior Alaska. The long-term CO2 budget for the black spruce forest was a small sink of -53 ± 63 g C m-2 y-1. The CO2 sink increased from 49 g C m-2 y-1 for the first decade to 58 g C m-2 y-1 for the second decade. The increased CO2 sink was attributed to an 11.3% increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) among which 9% increase in GPP was explained by a recent increase in precipitation. Furthermore, a 3% increase in GPP in response to a 37-ppm increase in [CO2] was estimated from the data-model fusion. Our study shows that understanding the coupling between hydrological and carbon cycles and the CO2 fertilization effect is important for understanding the current and future carbon budgets of high-latitude ecosystems in permafrost regions.

Is a balanced entrepreneurial ecosystem essential for success? A configurational analysis of European regional entrepreneurial ecosystems

Is a balanced entrepreneurial ecosystem essential for success? A configurational analysis of European regional entrepreneurial ecosystems

A novel multi-criteria decision making method to evaluate green innovation ecosystem resilience

Green innovation ecosystem resilience evaluation is crucial for ensuring sustainable development in dynamic environments. By comprehensively assessing resilience, it helps identify risks and facilitate effective responses, thus promoting sustainable development. To effectively evaluate the resilience of green innovation ecosystems, this paper proposes a model based on the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method, designed to support decision-makers (DMs) in resilience evaluation. In this model, we improve the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method by introducing Spearman's correlation coefficient to more accurately determine the objective weights of various indicators based on their interrelationships. Furthermore, we propose an Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Hybrid Average Aggregation (IVIFHAA) operator, which considers both the subjective and objective weight order for aggregating expert evaluation results. Additionally, a scoring function is introduced to generate ranked evaluation results. We also establish a resilience evaluation criteria system covering interconnectivity, sustainability, and diversity within green innovation ecosystems to assist DMs in resilience evaluation. Finally, to validate this method, we apply it to assess the resilience of regional green innovation ecosystems and compare it with other methods. The results demonstrate that the improved operator effectively reduces information loss and improves evaluation efficiency, while the improved CRITIC method handles outliers during the evaluation process.

Spatial optimization strategies for China’s hydrogen infrastructure industry chain

Promoting the development of China’s hydrogen energy industry is crucial for achieving green energy transition. However, existing research lacks systematic studies on the spatial layout of the hydrogen industry chain. This study constructed a comprehensive theoretical framework encompassing hardware infrastructure, software systems, and soft power. Using multi-source heterogeneous data, GIS analysis, and NVivo text coding methods, the current regional layout and challenges of China’s hydrogen infrastructure industry chain were systematically evaluated. The findings determined that economically developed eastern regions lead in infrastructure and soft power, while central and western regions leverage their resource and manufacturing advantages. Major challenges include regional imbalances in hardware infrastructure, uneven distribution of soft power, and misalignment between software systems and actual needs. Analysis of the “14th Five-Year Plan” of various regions elucidated deep insights into the diversity of local hydrogen energy development strategies, identifying five types of hydrogen cities: resource-advantaged, market-oriented, regionally collaborative, innovation-driven, and policy-supported. Accordingly, strategies to enhance industry chain synergy, clarify city roles, and optimize regional ecosystems were proposed. It is recommended to integrate hydrogen infrastructure with urban planning and incorporate environmental impact assessments into spatial optimization decisions. This study provides a systematic analytical framework and progressive policy recommendations for the efficient and green layout of China’s hydrogen infrastructure, offering important implications for the sustainable development of the hydrogen industry and other rapidly developing economies.

How to Achieve the Ecological Sustainability Goal of Ecologically Fragile Areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Multi-Scenario Simulation of Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomerations

The future of the ecologically fragile areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a matter of concern. With the implementation of the Western Development Strategy, the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration (LXUA) has encountered conflicts and compromises between urban expansion, ecological protection, and farmland protection policies in the rapid development of the past 2 decades. These deeply affect the land use layout, making the ecological sustainable development of the ecologically fragile areas of the QTP a complex and urgent issue. Exploring the impact of different policy-led land use patterns on regional ecosystem services is of great significance for the sustainable development of ecologically fragile areas and the formulation of relevant policies. Following the logical main line of “history-present-future”, the Patch-level Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, which explores potential factors of historical land use, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model were used to construct three future scenarios for the modernization stage in 2031 dominated by different land use policies in this study. These scenarios include the Business-as-Usual Scenario (BS), the Cropland Protection Scenario (CP), and the Ecological Protection Scenario (EP). The study analyzed and predicted land use changes in the LXUA from 2001 to 2031 and assessed carbon storage, habitat quality at different time points, and water yield in 2021. The results indicated that land use changes from 2001 to 2021 reflect the impacts and conflicts among the Western Development Strategy, ecological protection policies, and cropland preservation policies. In 2031, construction land continues to increase under all three scenarios, expanding northwards around Lanzhou, consistent with the actual “northward expansion” trend of Lanzhou City. Changes in other land uses are in line with the directions guided by land use policy. By 2031, carbon storage and habitat quality decline under all scenarios, with the highest values observed in the EP scenario, the lowest carbon storage in the BS scenario, and the lowest habitat quality in the CP scenario. Regarding water yield, the LXUA primarily relies on alpine snowmelt, with construction land overlapping high evapotranspiration areas. Based on the assessment of ecosystem services, urban expansion, delineation of ecological red lines, and improvement of cropland quality in the LXUA were proposed. These findings and recommendations can provide a scientific basis for policy makers and planning managers in the future.

Living labs as orchestrators in the regional innovation ecosystem: a conceptual framework

ABSTRACT This research explores the conceptual integration of Living Labs (LLs) into the Regional Innovation Ecosystem (RIE) to understand their potential as facilitators of Responsible Innovation. While previous studies explored the role of Living Labs, they lack comprehensive integration strategies for addressing wicked problems. A conceptual framework is developed to understand the main role, detailed functions, and key elements for integration. Seven expert interviews were conducted to develop the conceptual framework, using the Interuniversity Microelectronics Centre (imec) within the Flemish Innovation Ecosystem as empirical context. The findings emphasise Living Labs as central orchestrators, enabling user-centric innovation, real-world experimentation, and stakeholder engagement. We identify four key elements that facilitate the proposed integration: government policy and funding, strategic integration, formal collaborations, and proof of concept. These findings have implications for advancing the theoretical understanding of Living Labs' integration into the Regional Innovation Ecosystem, and for practitioners who aim to foster Responsible Innovation.

Delving into nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in shallow eutrophic lakes: Multi-interface response to freeze-thaw cycles

Assessing the impact of freeze-thaw cycles on nutrient transfer in lakes is crucial for addressing the global eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems in cold and arid regions. However, available information about the dynamics of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) release during intact freeze-thaw cycles, especially in the sediment–porewater–water column continuum of lakes, is limited. This study collected the samples during ice-covered (January) and non-ice-covered (April, July, and October) periods. The changes in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were analyzed to estimate their release fluxes from the sediment-water interface. Both redundancy analysis (RDA) and variance partitioning analysis (VPA) were used to explore the effects of environmental variables on N and P. The results indicated that during the ice-covered period (ICP), the surface water content of different forms of N and P was lower than that of the overlying water, whereas the opposite was true during the non-ice-covered period (NICP). The overall trend for the different forms of N was TN > DIN > NH4-N > NO3-N > NO2-N, and for P, it was TP > PP > DTP > DOP>DIP. The vertical profiles of the porewater TN and TP generally demonstrated an increase followed by a decrease from the surface to the bottom, with an inflection point at 15 cm. Sediment TN and TP trends over time matched porewater trends, with both being spatially highest at the lake inlet. ICP sediments acted as sinks for TN and TP, and NICP sediments acted as sources. N and P in the water column were significantly correlated mainly with physicochemical indicators, whereas sediment contributed positively to TN and TP in the porewater. VPA indicated that environmental factors explained 46.45 % of the variation in TN and TP in the porewater. These findings emphasize the importance of freeze-thaw cycling processes in driving N and P nutrient enrichment, source-sink effects, and multi-media coupling in shallow lakes in arid plateau regions.

Changes of blue and green water in arid inland dissipation area based on coupled surface water and groundwater model

Study regionThe Mainstream in the Tarim River Basin, Southern Xinjiang, China Study focusClimate change and human activities have significantly altered the water cycle, and water security evaluation and management are urgent. In arid and semi-arid areas, the assessment of blue and green water is particularly important. In this study, the MIKE SHE model is used to simulate the spatial and temporal changes of blue and green water resources in the mainstream of the Tarim River Basin (TRB) from 1990 to 2050 under land use and climate change conditions. The scarcity and vulnerability of blue-green water are introduced to evaluate the water security of the basin. The impacts of different land uses on blue-green water resources were also calculated according to the model zoning. New hydrological insights for the regionThe results indicate that from 1990 to 2050, blue water resources show a spatial pattern of gradual decrease from upstream to downstream. Compared to blue water, green water is dispersed more evenly over space. Future climatic scenarios will impact water security, as will changes in blue and green water security in terms of time and space. By comparing the influence of ecological water transport on the change of blue and green water before and after 2000, it was found that environmental water transport plays a certain role in improving the blue water scarcity in downstream of the TRB. The study is significant in maintaining regional water security and ecosystem stability.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Assessment of Carbon Stocks in Terrestrial Ecosystems Based on SD-PLUS-InVEST Coupled Modeling in Nanjing City

In the context of achieving the goal of carbon neutrality, exploring the changes in land demand and ecological carbon stocks under future scenarios at the urban level is important for optimizing regional ecosystem services and developing a land-use structure consistent with sustainable development strategies. We propose a framework of a coupled system dynamics (SD) model, patch generation land-use simulation (PLUS) model, and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to dynamically simulate the spatial and temporal changes of land use and land-cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem carbon stocks under the NDS (natural development scenario), EPS (ecological protection scenario), RES (rapid expansion scenario), and HDS (high-quality development scenario) in Nanjing from 2020 to 2040. From 2005 to 2020, the expansion rate of construction land in Nanjing reached 50.76%, a large amount of ecological land shifted to construction land, and the ecological carbon stock declined dramatically. Compared with 2020, the ecosystem carbon stocks of the EPS and HDS increased by 2.4 × 106 t and 1.5 × 106 t, respectively, with a sizable ecological effect. It has been calculated that forest and cultivated land are the two largest carbon pools in Nanjing, and the conservation of both is decisive for the future carbon stock. It is necessary to focus on enhancing the carbon stock of forest ecosystems while designating differentiated carbon sink enhancement plans based on the characteristics of other land types. Fully realizing the carbon sink potential of each ecological functional area will help Nanjing achieve its carbon neutrality goal. The results of the study not only reveal the challenges of ecological conservation in Nanjing but also provide useful guidance for enhancing the carbon stock of urban terrestrial ecosystems and formulating land-use planning in line with sustainable development strategies.

Spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem service bundles and the driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Defining a multi-service spatial pattern and ecosystem packages is the key to ensuring regional ecological security and sustainable development. Ecosystem service bundles can effectively discern the interactions among multiple services and regionalize ecological functional zones. Aiming at a range of environmental and ecological challenges in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, such as water scarcity, soil erosion, land degradation, poor forest and grassland quality, and shrinking agricultural land, the spatial pattern and driving forces of eight crux ecosystem services, including product supply, soil conservation, water conservation, carbon storage, sand fixation, environment purification, biological diversity and recreation culture, were analyzed by combining multiple model algorithms. Additionally, spatial system clustering was employed to identify ecosystem services bundles and optimize the ecological functional zoning. The results revealed significant spatial heterogeneity of the eight ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. High product supply concentrated in plain regions, while the rest seven ecosystem services were dominant in in mountainous areas. The region can be classified into four service bundles: ecological conservation service (ECS), ecological restoration service (ERS), product supply service (PSS) and ecological fragile service (EFS). ECS and ERS are dominated by regulating and supporting services, which are primarily driven by climatic factors and NDVI. ERS exhibits relatively low service level and is the crucial area for future ecological restoration. PSS is dominated by food supply, with land use change being the primary driving force. At present, with the rapid urbanization, various ecosystem services provided by EFS is inadequate. In the future, urban ecological construction should be strengthened to enhance regional ecosystem services capabilities.

Strategies for managing regional ecosystems in the digital environment

Strategies for managing regional ecosystems in the digital environment

Assessing Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ecosystem Services within the Tianshan Mountainous Region

In managing ecosystem services (ESs), it is vital to understand and effectively regulate the trade-offs and synergies (ToSs) involved. This study investigates the Tianshan Mountains (TSMs), utilizing the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of ESs and Tradeoffs) model to evaluate ecosystem service changes from 2000 to 2020, while employing univariate linear regression to examine their spatiotemporal dynamics. Pearson correlation analysis was also conducted to assess how climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and vegetation indicators (NDVI, normalized difference vegetation index) influence the overall ecosystem service benefits. The findings reveal notable spatial heterogeneity and dynamic shifts in ESs across the TSMs, with strong synergies observed between carbon storage (CS) and other services (such as habitat quality, HQ; soil conservation, SC; and water yield, WY), especially in areas experiencing increased vegetation. However, the connection between HQ and WY was comparatively weaker and occasionally exhibited negative correlations during specific periods, highlighting the intricate trade-offs among various services. The correlation analysis further showed that climate and vegetation changes significantly impact ecosystem service benefits, with declining precipitation and rising temperatures reducing these benefits, whereas higher NDVI was associated with improved service functions. Ultimately, this study emphasizes the necessity of recognizing and managing ToSs in ESs to promote sustainable regional ecosystem development.

Ballasts of the entrepreneurial ecosystem

Entrepreneurial ecosystem research has developed into a distinct field of study and extant frameworks and models consider the heterogeneous characteristics of ecosystems as a focal point for policymakers seeking to bolster regional entrepreneurial performance. Despite theoretical consensus on these issues, however, entrepreneurial ecosystem research has achieved only modest results in practice for catalyzing entrepreneurial activity. This is largely due to current models providing opaque targets for policymakers to focus their energies, a quandary that this qualitative study attempts to resolve. This research suggests that practical results can be improved by concentrating resource allocations on regional entrepreneurial ecosystem ballasts, which represent the various stakeholders who serve important roles as connectors, vettors, promoters, and chroniclers to catalyze entrepreneurial activity and support cultural heterogeneity. Concomitantly, this research also builds upon previous scholarship which has attempted to connect ecosystem attributes with the benefits that they provide to entrepreneurs.

Ecological and epidemiological characteristics of tick-borne encephalitis and ixodic tick-borne borreliosis incidence according to the data of the Arkhangelsk region for 2012–2022

BACKGROUND: The increase of ticks infected with borrelia and tick-borne encephalitis virus, as well as the impact of anthropogenic factor on the ecosystem of the northern region determines the need to study possible risk factors and epidemiological trends in the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis and ixoid tick-borreliosis. AIM: To conduct a retrospective ecological and epidemiological analysis of regional peculiarities of the epidemic process of tick-borne encephalitis and ixoid tick-borreliosis in the Arkhangelsk region in comparison with similar indicators in the North-West Federal District and Russia for 2012–2022. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The work was carried out in accordance with the ecological research design. Statistical data of the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System, as well as statistical annual forms of the Department of the Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare in Russia and the Arkhangelsk region were used as the information base. The registered cases of tick-borne encephalitis and ixoid tick-borreliosis morbidity in the Arkhangelsk region, as well as in Russia and the Northwestern Federal District as a whole for 2012–2022 were evaluated. Time series analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel 2019. The study also analyzes the dynamics of climatic factors in the Arkhangelsk region and its possible impact on the distribution and migration of ixodid ticks across the territory of the European North of Russia. Correlations were assessed by evaluating Pearson’s correlation criterion using the Google Collaboratory interface. RESULTS: The number of tick bites in the Arkhangelsk region throughout the entire study period significantly exceeds the similar indicator (per 100 thousand population) in Russia. The incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in the Arkhangelsk region significantly exceeds that in both the Russian Federation and the Northwestern Federal District, and exceeded the average annual rate in Russia more than 3 times, although it had a faster rate of decline (5.7% vs. 3.7% annually). The incidence of ixoid tick-borreliosis has a paradoxical character due to the fact that throughout almost the whole period it is below the all-Russian level (3.19 per 100,000 population in Arkhangelsk region against 4.41 in the Russian Federation), while the incidence in the Northwestern Federal District is 1.3 times higher on average. CONCLUSIONS: During the last decade the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in the Arkhangelsk region remains stably high in comparison with both the Russian Federation and the Northwestern Federal District. The incidence of ixoid tick-borreliosis corresponds to the long-term average for Russia, with a more pronounced downward trend (4.7% vs. 1.7%). The territory of the Arkhangelsk region is subject to the trend of increasing average annual temperatures, and anthropogenic interventions, in particular, abundant deforestation, lead to the destruction of established ecosystems and open new opportunities and territories for ticks, which in the future may negatively affect the established trends of morbidity. The analysis confirms the need to develop and adopt organizational measures aimed at the development of epidemiological and epizootological monitoring.