The Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Temperature Variability Across Mts. Qinling: A Comparative Study from 1971 to 2022

Abstract

Analyzing the spatiotemporal patterns of atmospheric temperature in sensitive areas is critically important for understanding the broader implications of global climate change, which remains a prominent topic in geosciences. It also plays a crucial role in advancing sustainable development. This study utilized daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature data from twelve meteorological stations across the South and North Mts. Qinling (Qinling Mountains). Employing trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall mutation test, and Morlet wavelet analysis, we explored the predominant temperature trends and characteristics from 1971 to 2022. Our findings revealed consistent inter-annual warming trends in both regions, with more rapid temperature increases in the North compared to the South. Notably, significant shifts occurred in 2003 for both mean and minimum temperatures in the North, while the maximum and minimum temperature values were recorded in the 2010s and 1980s, respectively. Both regions exhibited a primary temperature fluctuation cycle of 28 years. Seasonally, the strongest warming effects appeared in spring, with the weakest in autumn, and moderate effects in winter and summer, indicating that spring contributes most significantly to regional warming. Monthly analysis showed positive temperature trends across all months, with higher rates in the North. The weakening temperature boundary effect of the Mts. Qinling suggested a weakening North–South division, particularly highlighted by the northward shift of the 1 °C isotherm curve for the coldest month, moving away from the previously observed 0 °C isotherm. This northward shift highlights the differential warming rates between the northern and southern regions. Overall, the analysis confirms a robust warming trend, with notable fluctuations in January’s temperatures since 1998, suggesting the Mts. Qinling’s emerging role as a climatic divider in the Chinese Mainland. This introduces new challenges for regional ecosystems, agricultural production, and water resource management, highlighting the pressing need to advance regional sustainable development in the face of climate change.