Sudan Economy Research Articles

Cost effectiveness and return on investment analysis for surgical care in a conflict-affected region of Sudan.

The delivery of healthcare in conflict-affected regions places tremendous strains to health systems, and the economic value of surgical care in conflict settings remains poorly understood. Our aims were to evaluate the cost-effectiveness, societal economic benefits, and return on investment (ROI) for surgical care in a conflict-affected region in Sudan. We conducted a retrospective study of surgical care from January to December 2022 at the Mother of Mercy-Gidel Hospital (MMH) in the Nuba Mountains of Sudan, a semi-autonomous region characterized by chronic and cyclical conflict. We collected data on all patients undergoing surgical procedures (n = 3016), including age, condition, and procedure. We used the MMH budget and financial statements to measure direct medical and non-medical expenditures (costs) for care. We estimated the proportion of expenditures for surgical care through a survey of surgical vs non-surgical beds. The benefits of care were calculated as averted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYa) based on predicted outcomes for the most common 81% of procedures, and then extrapolated to the overall cohort. We calculated the average cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) of care. The societal economic benefits of surgical care were modeled using a human capital approach, and we performed a ROI analysis. Uncertainty was estimated using sensitivity analysis. We found that the CER for all surgical care was $72.54/DALYa. This CER is far less than the gross domestic product per capita in the comparator economy of South Sudan ($585), qualifying it as very cost-effective by World Health Organization standards. The total societal economic impact of surgical care was $9,124,686, yielding a greater than 14:1 ROI ratio. Sensitivity analysis confirmed confidence in all output models. Surgical care in this conflict-affected region of Sudan is very cost-effective, provides substantial societal economic benefits, and a high return on investment.

Multiple Correspondence Analysis for Assessment of the Socioeconomic and Social Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Gezira State, Sudan

Background COVID-19 spread in Sudan like other countries in the world. The first COVID-19 case in Sudan was confirmed on 13 March 2020. It has been shown that Sudan's economy was affected before the COVID-19 pandemic because of currency increases, high inflation, and the incapability of the authorities to propose support. Methods The study aimed to assess the economic and social influence of COVID-19 in Al Gazira State, Sudan. This study used the primary data collected from Gezira state in Sudan. A structured questionnaire was used for data collection in 2020-2021, and the sample size was 800 participants. An analysis of multiple correspondences was used to analyze the data concerning COVID-19. The study was validated by ensuring that the survey follows sound research methodologies. This includes clearly defining research questions, using appropriate data collection methods, and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Besides that, it is important to explore the impact of the socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic variables. Results The educational level distribution shows that 36.7% of urban and 26.6% of rural residents have completed secondary education. Furthermore, all participants, 100% in urban regions and 99% in rural areas, were aware of the COVID-19 epidemic. Likewise, all participants in urban areas and 99.5% in rural areas were informed about the lockdowns and measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. Concerning the decision to refrain from attending social gatherings amid COVID-19, 87.6% of participants in urban areas and 75.3% in rural regions opted to cancel such events. Similarly, 86.2% in urban areas and 73.4% in rural areas believe avoiding handshakes is necessary to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Regarding concerns about job loss during the COVID-19 lockdown period, 52.4% of rural participants did not express anxiety about potential job loss. Conversely, 55.3% of respondents in rural areas were indeed anxious about possibly losing their jobs. The results obtained from the multiple correspondence analysis revealed a relationship between the socioeconomic and demographic variables concerning COVID-19 epidemics. Conclusion This study concluded that socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic variables have a combined influence on the COVID-19 epidemic. One potential technical contribution to the assessment of the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic could be the application of sophisticated data analysis and modeling techniques to comprehend the complex interrelationships among the numerous components impacted by the pathogen. Predictive models, machine learning, data analytics, simulation studies, and geographic analysis are a few examples of similar techniques.

The Future of Arab Democracy under the Rentier System: The Case of Sudan

The rentier economy has long been an important source of power for autocratic regimes, serving as a key tool for Arab authoritarianism. Rentierism is a grave matter as it not only hinders economic liberalisation, but it also disrupts the development of democracy. Following the political economy literature that demonstrates an inverse correlation between democracy and rentierism and shows the responsibility of political systems for the emergence of rentier practices, this paper examines how ruling elites in Arab states use rents to buttress their authoritarian regimes and obstruct the building of a democratic society. To better understand the factors that shape and sustain the rentier system, the paper focuses on the case of Sudan, where rentierism is deeply embedded. The paper sheds light on the challenges impeding the transfer of power from the military establishment to civilian elites, given the resilience of the rentier economy and the prevalence of negative practices that strengthen authoritarianism, such as the spread of clientelism and endemic levels of corruption. The paper concludes that it is impossible to build a democratic system in the shadow of the rentier structure. It also discusses ways to dismantle the rentier economy in Sudan to ensure the emergence of a productive state by moving beyond the rentier social contract to a new social pact.

Sudanese Banking Sector and Stress Testing

The repercussions of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis helped to reconsider the foundations used in assessing the banks’ withstand potential crises. In 2009, the BCBS issued a document entitled “Principles for Sound Stress Testing Practices and Supervision” as a basis for early evaluation of the performance of banking institutions and their ability to overcome sudden shocks and crises. The study aims to examine the ability of the Sudanese Banking Sector to pass stress testing and withstand sudden shock in light of the Basel II standards of stress test. The methodology was based on analyzing the performance of Sudan's economy, consolidated balance sheet, and financial soundness indicators of the banking sector (2005-2021). Additionally, it was based on a scenario designed for reverse stress testing (2022-2025). The results show that the Sudanese banking sector failed to bear sudden shocks and pass the stress testing due to its lack of commitment to applying the supervisory standards of Basel II. The war that broke out in the state of Khartoum on April 15, 2023, led to a deterioration in the political and economic conditions. It is expected to reduce the banking sector's power to absorb shocks. The paper recommends the Central Bank of Sudan follow up on the commitment of banks to apply the stress testing and financial soundness standards recommended by Basel II, especially capital adequacy, liquidity requirements, and political risk. Furthermore, the implementation of contractionary monetary policies serves to reduce inflationary pressures, which helps banks avoid credit and market risks.

The Economic Impact of the Coronavirus [COVID-19] Pandemic on Sudan’s Foreign Trade

The paper explored and addressed the preliminary economic effects of the coronavirus [COVID-19] Pandemic on Sudan’s foreign trade, focusing on its trade relationship with China as it is the source of the pandemic. Moreover, the paper briefly traces how the pandemic affected the Sub-Saharan Africa Region and the world economy. This evaluation is preliminary therefore, updated data and new research to be published shortly or thereafter will carry better clarity and complement the trends discussed in this paper. The study’s main findings revealed that the coronavirus [COVID-19] pandemic has no significant effect on Sudan’s foreign trade, especially with China. Since the US government imposed economic sanctions on Sudan's economy in 1993, Sudan become relied heavily on products imported from China.

Response of Sunflower (Helianthus Annuus L) to Plant Spacing

Agriculture is an important sector of Sudan economy and is the backbone of growth, poverty reduction, and sustainable development. Sunflower has become an important crop for both farmers and consumers in Sudan, fits well in the local cropping system and is considered the most important cash crop of the country. The experiment was conducted in the Experimental Farm, University of Kassala (New Halfa) of Sudan, to investigate the influence of cultivars and planting Spacing on plant growth and yield of Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L). It consisted of two cultivars (pannar-735 and Damazin-1) and three plant spacing’s (10 cm, 20 cm and 30 cm). Treatments were arranged in a factorial randomized complete block design (RCBD), in three replications. The results revealed, the cultivar, pannar- 735, early flowering, significantly highest hundred seed weight, seeds number per disc, seed yield (g/plant) and final yield (3.00 ton/ha). The Intra-row spacing of 30 cm had a thicker stem diameter, a highest number of seeds per head, 100-seed weight, seed yield per plant and final seed yield (3.34 ton/ha). The study revealed that the sunflower hybrid pannar-735 and plant spacing 30 cm apart is the best for New Halfa Eastern of Sudan.

Inflation’s Impact on Sudan Exports 1990-2020: An ARDL Approach

Purpose: This study investigates the inflation-export nexus in Sudan over the period 1990- 2020. Design/methodology: The study is based on quantitative and qualitative methods, estimating the export function and measuring the impact of its determinants over a prolonged period of time; the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology was used to analyse the co-integration. Findings: Findings have undoubtedly shown inflation’s negative impact on exports over the period 1990-2020. Broadly speaking, the long-term results indicated that the most important variable affecting exports is the gross domestic product (GDP), followed by inflation. Interestingly, the results indicated that the exchange rate was not significant, neither in the short nor in the long term. Implications: The study recommends inflation's control policy as a perquisite for an export development strategy; this overcomes barriers and paves the road for shifting Sudan's economy to productive agendas. Therefore, targeting inflation will contribute to export diversification and strengthening the product's value chain. The research findings reconsider the weight of export’s determinants and will reposition focusing to inflation control rather than exchange rate policy. Originality/value: The paper introduces a new approach in modelling the inflation-export nexus: (1) elaborate on export's determinants and their weights; and (2) recommending guidelines to adapt inflation policy with export development strategy. Keywords: Export, Inflation, Sudan economy, ARDL.

Sudan's Government Interventions: A Review Article On How To Overcome The Gap Between Wheat Production And Consumption

Agriculture is considered the mainstay of Sudan's economy and the livelihood of the majority of the population. It has contributed an annual average of 32 % of GDP for the last 10 years. Wheat is a strategic and political crop in Sudan and has played a central role in the country’s economy during successive regimes. This review paper aims to highlight the status of wheat production and consumption in Sudan in line with government interventions in the local and imported wheat sectors over the past few decades to ensure adequate grain supplies for domestic consumption. The Sudan government's official national-level statistics data and the government policy documents related to wheat production and consumption are used to conduct this paper. Despite the agricultural potential and ingredients available in Sudan, as well as government interventions via policies and plans oriented towards achieving wheat self-sufficiency, domestic production does not meet the population's needs and only covers an average of domestic consumption, which does not exceed 24%. Therefore, the Sudanese government has been importing wheat to bridge this gap, which was a great burden on its budget previously, and from this year (2022), this will be a great burden on the Sudanese citizens as the government completely lifted subsidies for wheat imports. This situation, in line with the world prices of wheat, which have surged since February 2022 and reached an all-time high level not seen since 2008 as the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered supply disruption from two of the world's largest wheat producers, requires evaluation of previous government interventions to determine what the real problem is, with a focus in the background of the commitments of the Millennium Development Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) to enhance the policies on "No Poverty," "Zero Hunger," and "Good Health and Well-being."

What Does the Future Hold for Oil in South Sudan Range from 2022/2050?

The aim of this paper is to find out the what the future holds in terms of oil in South Sudan. It looks at the economy that aggregated comprising of two major sectors of both oil and aid dominating the entire economy. Oil is a major player within the South Sudan Economy though major South Sudan residents nevertheless rely on other parts of the Economy for example in agricultural sector, livestock, commerce, and others make their income from employment income. Oil as well as aid is important since they are major sources for foreign exchanges and tax revenue. A variety of service industries also exists like the banking industry, insurance industry and other construction industries. The future of South Sudan is hence anchored on oil and this paper tends to explore on what the future holds for South Sudan in the Oil industry.

Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Production: A Case Study Khartoum State, Sudan

Climate change refers to weather changes that occur through time, either naturally or as a result of human activity. Climate change is now a worldwide issue, and Sudan is one of the developing countries that have suffered as a result of it. Sudan's economy is mostly based on agricultural, with Khartoum State playing a significant part in the country's economy. There are various important food crops grown in Khartoum, including wheat and sorghum. It is also known for the production of citrus fruits, particularly lemon, as well as onions, potatoes, beans, tomatoes, vegetables, fodder, and other crops. The results of this study showed that the annual highest maximum temperature was 40.8 °C in May and the lowest was in January 30 °C, while the minimum temperature ranged from 15.4 °C in January to 27.1 °C in June. For average temperature the highest degree was 34.3 °C in May and lowest was 22.7 °C in January. As for the precipitation, the highest was in August, reaching 27 mm, while the lowest was 3 mm in May, during the rainy months, which are between May and October only. As for the rainy days in the rainy months during the year, the highest value was 4 mm during July and August, while lowest was 1 mm in May, June and October, while it was 2 mm in the month of September. The highest humidity was 47% in August and the lowest was 12% in April. While for sunny days, the highest daylight hours were in June, when it was 11.7 hours, and the lowest hours were at 10.1 hours, and it was recorded in December. In this article, we specifically discussed how these climatic factors might impact the growth of important food crops in Khartoum. Climate change in Khartoum foretold that temperatures would rise to their highest point in the future, having a negative impact on agricultural crops. Due to low rainfall, drought stress on crops is also anticipated. The remedies to this issue are represented by integrated natural resource management and development, agricultural improvement and development, and the cultivation of species resistant to the impacts of climate change.

The Sudan economy "challenge and suggestions" Meta study

The problem of this study is how to make a link between four studies, which reflect how they integrated to make one pound study, or how they are aligned together in order to explain and interept the chanalenges facing the sudan economy. So study is aggregation to four studies by using meta-analysis method which is suitable for intergrating studies with the aim of elaborating main stream focusing in how the different studies under consideration reaching same results with different methods. Hence here the study seeks for increasing the power of testing the main question of the study which is the challenge that faced the Sudan economy particularly the structural distortion of economic variables. The study gathered the results of the four mentioned studies which are almost concerned with the exchange rate. The results confirmed the structural problem which faced the Sudan economy, while meta-analysis results assured and empowered the hypothesis of the study in terms of significant effect size. Moreover, the results consolidated the similarity of the studies in manipulating the problem of this study. In addition to that the heterogeneity stems from differences in the effect size of each study rather than differences in the sample sizes of the studies. Finally the study of exchange rate volatility has greater effect size, next to the study of estimating the error correction of exchange rate model while the studies of appropriate estimator of exchange rate and profitability of commercial banks have slight and insignificant effect size. Finally the different results assure the convenientability of meta analysis in reflecting the chellenges that faced the Sudanese economy and their ramifications, then accordingly the suggested remedies which may help in tackling the matter.

Research Title: Impact of Inflation on South Sudan Economy Case study: Juba Main Market - South Sudan

This study is carried out to investigate about the impact of inflation on South Sudan economy .The aims of this study to know the impact of inflation on south Sudan economy and money supply. The researcher used qualitative and quantitative methods for collected data and the data was analyzed by (SPSS) statistical package for social science. The researcher has reached to a numbers of findings: the study revealed mismanagement economics resources, high taxes rates, the study revealed that the inflation increases cost of living because of price increase, political instability in the country and devaluation of country currency, lack of feeding roads. The research suggested a number of important recommendations which are the following: the government should change the policy of depending on imported goods and services and encourage export of local products, bank of South Sudan should adopt strong monetary policy, government should combat corruption and implement transparency and accountability, government should encourage domestic production and small industries by giving loans and grants.

Does Economic Growth Responses to Changes in Financing Policies? Signals from Sudan Economy (1997-2018)

Through a simple regression model, the study tries to examine whether the economic growth in Sudan responses to changes in financing policies adopted by the Central Bank of Sudan(CBOS) during the period (1997-2018. Gross Domestic Product growth rate was used to measures economic growth (The dependent variable). While flow of banking finance to economic sectors includes; Agriculture, Industry, Local Trade, Foreign Trade, Transport and Storage, Energy and Mining and Real Estate were used to indicates changes in financing policies (The independent variables). Data were collected from annual reports of the CBOS. The results reveal that economic growth significantly responses to changes in financing policies but with different degrees during the period of the study. Moreover, it is found that imbalanced economic growth is directly related to imbalanced distribution of finance to economic sectors. The study strongly recommends that, the monetary authority should be issuing financing policies lead to equitable distribution of banking finance among economic sectors in order to achieve sustainable and balanced economic growth.

The Effect of Shocks on the Current and Future Behavior of Sudan Economy: Autoregressive Moving-average Approach

This paper attempts to achieve two core objectives. Firstly, it aims to synthesize the information contained in the different expenditure components of GDP for developing a set of Autoregressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to examine the effect of shocks on the current and subsequent cyclical deviations of Sudan real GDP from what is trending. Secondly, it aims to compare the intensity of those cyclical deviations within the reviewed period (1970-2010) and outside it. ARMA models of different orders are experimented to distinguish, empirically, whether the effect of shocks is transient or permanent and lasts for a long period of time. The major result is that the lingering effect of shocks is permanent causing intensified deviation from the trend outside the reviewed period.

Secession and the Political Economy of South Sudan from 2011 to 2017

In the quest to become autonomous, southern Sudan opted for secession from northern Sudan in 2011. Among other reasons, the major cause for this secession was to redress the imbalances perpetrated by the Arab minority, who discriminated against the people of the southern part of Sudan. The chief aim of this study was to assess the impact of secession from Sudan on the political economy of South Sudan in the period 2011–2017. The field research was conducted in South Sudan, Juba district, focusing on the surrounding areas of Munuki, Amarat, Sherikhat, Nyakuron, and Thongpiny. The study embraced blended decolonial research methods for data gathering. Techniques such as questionnaires and interviews were utilised. The authors discovered that the secession has had a negative impact on the political economy of South Sudan, as the newly founded state has been affected by the syndrome of dependence on its former parent state (Sudan), which creates perpetual problems. The research findings lead to the conclusion that for secession to have a positive impact on the political economy of African nations, robust institutions should be established soon after secession, there should be equality among ethnic groups, and sound policies should be established to stimulate their economies.

The importance of economic reform Policies in Arab states programs development: Case study of Sudanese economy - Sudan: أهمية سياسات الإصلاح الاقتصادي في تنمية البرامج الاقتصادية في الدول العربية: دراسة ميدانية على الاقتصاد السوداني- السودان

The study aims to identify the causes of deterioration of the economy in Sudan, the problem of the study there is administration corruption, no separation of government authorities and the failure of economic policies, no transparency. The study was conducted (inductive, deductive and analysis) approach so most important results of the researcher: the lack of transparency, the immigration qualified outside Sudan and economic blockade are the reasons of the failure of the Sudanese economy. The most important recommendation of the study: to make real policies towards the motivating expatriates and investors, attention to agricultural, animal’s productions and transformative industries.

DO ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE OPENNESS BOOST ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUDAN? EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FROM BOUNDS TEST TO COINTEGRATION APPROACH

Electricity power plays a significant role as an engine factor in boosting economic growth, particularly in developing countries. This paper utilized the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to study the interrelationship among electricity consumption, international trade openness, and economic growth in Sudan data spanning 1975-2014. The cointegration test result confirms the presence of long run cointegration relationship among electricity consumption, international trade openness, and economic growth. The estimated results of the long run point out that electricity consumption and international trade openness showed a significant positive relationship relating to economic growth. The estimated error correction term coefficient is found to be significant at a 1% significance level with an expected sign. The findings of this paper suggest that Sudan's economy takes advantage of promoting electricity production and more open international trade. Therefore, the policies that support and encourage electricity generation for effective uses are highly recommended. The engagement in international trade creates opportunities for Sudan's economy to benefit from the comparative advantage in exporting some goods that have a comparative advantage in Sudan as well as to import modern technologies particularly, the machineries and equipment relating to agriculture and industrial sectors recently to improve economic growth.Keywords: economic growth, trade openness, electricity consumption, ARDL, Sudan.JEL Classifications: F43, F16, L94DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.9374

An Overview of Challenges of Unemployment in South Sudan, Theoretical and Empirical Review

The problem of unemployment in South Sudan is a national issue that should be handled with care. The rate of unemployment in South Sudan since 2011 has been growing in a geometric progression. Its source could be traced to the diversification of South Sudan economy into oil sector, agriculture, construction etc. that provides less employment opportunity to its labor force. The main aim of this article is to illustrate the major challenges of unemployed people in South Sudan and around the world in general, through various studies conducted in the country and around the globe. The performance and problems of government functioning varies regionally based on the implication of system by state governments and the central, hence this article would give a holistic picture of major problems in creating employment opportunity in the country. The assessment of previous studies represents, corruption, less efficiency in the day to day functioning of the public, private and bi-lateral bodies in formulating and implementing policies to regulate in reducing unemployment in the country.

Optimal Indirect Tax Revenues and Economic Growth in Sudan Economy: A Threshold Regression Approach

Indirect taxes play a fundamental role in revenue collection in Sudan. This role is under investigation by estimating an optimum level beyond which they make vulnerable the acceleration of economic growth. A threshold regression was used for estimation which covers the period 1970 – 2017. The model contains real GDP (Y) as the dependent variable and indirect taxes as a threshold variable. The unemployment rate (UR), the external gap (GAP2), and the real effective exchange rate (REER) are the non-threshold variables. The main research findings indicate that the average indirect tax ratio is more than three times the direct tax ratio and constitutes about 55.3% of the total revenue collection compared to 18% of the direct tax. These findings suggest that the optimum threshold is 7.46% above which indirect taxes exert a negative impact on economic growth. It is clear that resorting to indirect taxes fosters the maximum economic growth at the threshold that corresponds to the year 1982. This year is considered to be the most economically stable year (elected as a base year). Here the non-threshold variables i.e. external gap represents 0.03% of its mean value, while real exchange rate and employment rate are less than their mean values. This paper focuses on restructuring the tax system which is highly recommended to shift the balance in favor of direct taxes so as to curb price rises, attain social and economic balance, and reduce income inequality. Economic policies have to be focused on tackling unemployment especially among young graduates and disguised unemployment. Here, monitory policy can stimulate demand and put the economy back on track, as well as a fiscal policy through taxation and government spending. A favorable economic environment conducive for investment and jobs creation ought to be one of the priorities. Job description and irradiation of nepotism can help much in reducing unemployment. Export diversification and improved range of merchandized, recapitalization of the export-import (EXIM) bank for smooth credit provision, revision of rules & tariffs, creation of single window for customs clearance, and the stable exchange rate should be the main concern of the government.

Capturing the Informal Economy in South Sudan

During the course of my dissertation fieldwork in South Sudan, from 2014 - 2015, I found many discrepancies between the realities I witnessed and encountered on the ground, and the images that were being promulgated by the international community providing aid as well as the journalists reporting on conflict in the country. For outsiders that depend on these constricted views, it is easy to underestimate the level of labor and productivity that occurs in South Sudan to generate income and assume that the majority of citizens are complacently dependent on foreign aid due to underdevelopment and the conflict. Unfortunately, this view was perpetuated at times by the international aid workers that I interviewed, and then exacerbated by representatives of the national government where it was purported that community members were too reliant on the government for services. However, in approaching my research project with an expanded view of what constitutes self-determination, productivity, and growth on the part of communities, I was able to contribute to the documentation of the vital role that community self-determination has in meeting the needs of citizens in areas where governments and NGOs have failed. This narrative is often missing from existing literature, which inherently limits our knowledge of both the historical and contemporary realities we encounter when designing programs, policies, and research studies. Part of the missing narratives is hidden in the informal economy of South Sudan. Parents that I interviewed shared that they worked diligently to ensure their children’s school fees were paid, or medical costs were covered, by pursuing low-cost income-generating activities to raise funds. In order to document and institutionalize these missing narratives, I will argue for the inclusion and valuing of informal economies in current standards and measurements of economic development. Specifically, I will make a case for South Sudan’s extensive informal economy to be considered in country-based assessments and international indices. Given that the majority of the population participates in the informal economy in one form or another, this is a critical tool for policy-makers to possess in order to obtain a holistic perspective of South Sudan.