Economic Vulnerability Research Articles

Barriers to contraceptive use among secondary school adolescents in Gedeo zone, South Ethiopia: a formative qualitative study

ObjectiveTo assess barriers to contraceptive use among secondary school adolescents in Gedeo zone, South Ethiopia, in 2021.DesignA grounded theory approach to the qualitative study was conducted between December 2020 and...

Analyzing the nexus between financial risk and economic risk in India: Evidence through the lens of wavelet coherence and non-parametric approaches

The gravest challenge for economic sustainability is the undetermined growth in the financial and economic risks of the nation, which need to be overcome with adequate measures without compromising economic growth. The uncertainty of economic factors produces fluctuations in the financial sector and makes them more vulnerable. However, the existing literature has not significantly focused on the economic and financial risk challenge for sustainable economic growth. Therefore, to fill the gap, an in-depth study is imperative to explore the association between these risks. To do so, this study incorporates both economic and financial risk to determine how risks are interconnected across time (frequency) and how they are linked by utilizing quarterly data from 1984-Q1 to 2020-Q4 and by applying both the “wavelet power spectrum (WPS)” and “wavelet coherence (WTC)” approaches, to examine the time-frequency dependency of each variable on the other. The findings of WTC revealed that the economic and financial risks have a positive dependency on each other in India at high, medium, and low frequencies. Likewise, the wavelet power spectrum outcomes reflect the high economic and financial risks vulnerability during 1991, 1992, and 1996. In addition, for the robustness check, the study employed both the “quantile regression (QR)” and “quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR)”. Both the QQR and QR endorsed the positive association between FR and ER. Hence, our paper is the first research of its kind for the Indian economy, and it extends to the existing literature by examining the link between the two most significant indicators in terms of both time and frequency dependency. The findings in our paper offer excellent perspectives for investors and policymakers to assess prospects for investment and policy changes if necessary.

Economic and Psychosocial Impact of COVID-19 in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

To examine the prevalence and correlates of economic hardship and psychosocial distress experienced during the initial phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in a large cohort of Hispanic/Latino adults. The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL), an ongoing multicenter study of Hispanic/Latino adults, collected information about COVID-19 illness and psychosocial and economic distress that occurred during the pandemic (N=11,283). We estimated the prevalence of these experiences during the initial phase of the pandemic (May 2020 to May 2021) and examined the prepandemic factors associated with pandemic-related economic hardship and emotional distress using multivariable log linear models with binomial distributions to estimate prevalence ratios. Almost half of the households reported job losses and a third reported economic hardship during the first year of the pandemic. Pandemic-related household job losses and economic hardship were more pronounced among noncitizens who are likely to be undocumented. Pandemic-related economic hardship and psychosocial distress varied by age group and sex. Contrary to the economic hardship findings, noncitizens were less likely to report pandemic-related psychosocial distress. Prepandemic social resources were inversely related to psychosocial distress. The study findings underscore the economic vulnerability that the pandemic has brought to ethnic minoritized and immigrant populations in the United States, in particular noncitizens. The study also highlights the need to incorporate documentation status as a social determinant of health. Characterizing the initial economic and mental health impact of the pandemic is important for understanding the pandemic consequences on future health. Clinical Trial Registration Number: NCT02060344.

STRATEGIC DIVERGENCE IN THE US-PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP UNDER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

This study analyses the US-Pakistan relationship during the Trump administration from a neo-classical realist lens. Along with systemic influences, the analysis framework also includes the role of domestic and cognitive factors in understanding both sides’ perceptions, behaviors, and preferences toward each other. During Trump’s presidential term, both sides could not fritter away the mistrust and move beyond the traditional course of engagement characterized by tactical convergence based on the rewards for service rendered by Pakistan. Pakistan was not a strategic choice for Washington since the two countries had contrasting expectations on evolving global developments, emerging regional geo-political and domestic reconfigurations. Parallel to this, Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities were exploited by the Republicans to reassert their leverage in bargaining. This grey area helped the White House allure Pakistan with its carrot-and-stick approach and compelled policy planners in Islamabad to think that a strong foreign policy always rests on a strong domestic base.

Quantify the Contribution of Nature-Based Solutions in Reducing the Impacts of Hydro-Meteorological Hazards in the Urban Environment: A Case Study in Naples, Italy

Urban areas are vulnerable to multiple risks associated with hydro-meteorological hazards (HMHs). The assessment of the climate benefits of implementing nature-based solutions (NBSs) in urban areas, especially in open spaces, is widely recognised and discussed within the scientific literature; however, the quantification of these benefits, in terms of the HMHs reduction, human safety and human well-being, is still a subject of debate. In this context, this contribution proposes a methodological approach that, starting from the analysis of the impacts of coastal flooding and in terms of the potential direct and tangible economic damages, heatwave events and vulnerability of open spaces, proposes the application and assessment of NBSs in terms of the reduction in these impacts. The process was developed in the GIS environment based on the processing of open-source data. The test was conducted in the case study of Naples’ waterfront to identify the potentialities and limitations of the approach. The results showed the contribution of NBSs in reducing the economic damages due to coastal flooding and the improved vulnerability conditions to heatwave events.

Vulnerability and economic loss evaluation model of a typical group structure considering empirical field inspection data

Evaluating the earthquake economic loss of building clusters is an essential index to measure regional seismic risk and resilience. This study developed a rapid financial loss evaluation model based on the empirical vulnerability parameters of the group structure. The quantitative failure parameters used to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of regional group structures are optimized comprehensively, and a loss evaluation model considering the economic vulnerability index is innovatively proposed. The empirical vulnerability database (field survey data of 212 destructive earthquakes in China from 1975 to 2013 (98,916.841 × 104 m2 buildings)) of typical structures is established. An updated model for structural economic loss assessment is proposed. Using the proposed innovation model and probability statistical method, the economic loss evaluation model and database of typical group structures based on the economic vulnerability index are developed. Using the nonlinear Gaussian distribution and the actual cumulative damage quantification method, the economic loss evaluation comparison model and mean value calculation model of five typical buildings considering the empirical group structural vulnerability database are performed. Ultimately, combined with the proposed innovative quantitative model, the economic vulnerability index matrix (database) and point cloud of typical group structures of 212 destructive earthquakes in China are calculated. The proposed model can cooperate with the macroseismic intensity standard to realize the rapid economic loss assessment of typical buildings. The results of this study can contribute to the evaluation of the economic losses of building clusters in multiple macroseismic intensity regions.

Commodity cycle management in Latin America: The importance of resilience in face of vulnerability

This paper investigates the impact of the commodity price bust on economic activity across Latin American countries. The investigation proposes that the impact of price falls in primary products depends on factors that increase economic vulnerability to the shock, alongside institutional resilience. A key source of vulnerability is the way in which resource earnings are channeled into the country; entrance through public sector accounts results in broader based exposure to commodity price shocks. On the other hand, we find that while countries may be vulnerable to external trade shocks, institutional and structural characteristics can bolster their resilience. Such characteristics include improving society's trust in government effectiveness, the adequacy of business regulations, financial market institutional quality, and property right protection. Higher levels of educational obtainment also bolster resilience. High vulnerability and low resilience in face of economic trade shocks result in large increases in informal sector employment rather than unemployment. The informality response is considered the best measure of the state of the economy in the largely informalized economies of Central and South America.

The unequal burden of human-wildlife conflict

Human-wildlife conflict is one of the most pressing sustainable development challenges globally. This is particularly the case where ecologically and economically important wildlife impact the livelihoods of humans. Large carnivores are one such group and their co-occurrence with low-income rural communities often results in real or perceived livestock losses that place increased costs on already impoverished households. Here we show the disparities associated with the vulnerability to conflict arising from large carnivores on cattle (Bos taurus) globally. Across the distribution of 18 large carnivores, we find that the economic vulnerability to predation losses (as measured by impacts to annual per capita income) is between two and eight times higher for households in transitioning and developing economies when compared to developed ones. This potential burden is exacerbated further in developing economies because cattle keepers in these areas produce on average 31% less cattle meat per animal than in developed economies. In the lowest-income areas, our estimates suggest that the loss of a single cow or bull equates to nearly a year and a half of lost calories consumed by a child. Finally, our results show that 82% of carnivore range falls outside protected areas, and five threatened carnivores have over one third of their range located in the most economically sensitive conflict areas. This unequal burden of human-carnivore conflict sheds light on the importance of grappling with multiple and conflicting sustainable development goals: protecting life on land and eliminating poverty and hunger.

The evolving just transition: definitions, context, and practical insights for Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, with impacts on food security already being felt while the continent also battles unprecedented levels of unemployment and economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. The inherent connectivity between the twin challenges of climate and economic vulnerability is becoming more and more apparent, and the concept of the Just Transition is gaining traction across development spheres to address these multidimensional problems, albeit with many different interpretations. These varied interpretations of the Just Transition movement can lead to vastly different priorities, policy routes and outcomes—a concerning risk especially where the governing definitions and principles are not produced, advanced, or owned by African stakeholders. This commentary aims to bring more clarity and specificity to the discourse on Just Transitions in Africa. We first provide a short history of the Just Transition movement and its evolution, and then demonstrate how the term has become an umbrella for more specific interest groups and communities, as seen through the expansion of the Just Urban, Rural, Circular Economy, and Energy Transition movements. Through a literature review, drawing from pivotal international examples, and based on the authors’ perspectives, we offer insights into the meaningfulness of these distinctions and posit clearer working definitions. We then explore the direct relevance of these movements to the African context through case studies of successful local and regional initiatives and programs. This commentary aims to provide readers with a simple, succinct, and structured explanation of the Just Transitions movements, and practical insights for their further advancement in Africa. Our exploration does not aim to be definitive or exhaustive, but rather demonstrates that truly just transitions on the continent will require attention first and foremost to consensus-building at the local and national level. This will require shareable research and data about programs and initiatives for each other to learn from, and significantly more climate financing dedicated to African-led initiatives.

Re‐evaluating the behavioral change from conditional cash transfers: Evidence from the Avancemos National Program in Costa Rica

AbstractConditional cash transfers (CCT) have become a common solution aiming to reduce poverty by increasing the human capital of children. In 2006, the Government of Costa Rica introduced Avancemos, a nationwide CCT program, with the premise that a monetary subsidy, conditional on school attendance, would offset adolescents' opportunity cost from working and increase secondary school completion. In this paper, we assess whether the program achieved its main objective of increasing secondary schooling and reducing adolescent labor, and we disentangle the mechanisms generating these effects. We used data from the Costa Rica National Household Survey (2006–2014) collected by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses. The program effects are estimated through a propensity score matching technique. We find that for program beneficiaries, Avancemos led to increases of about 27% in attendance and 0.72 year of schooling, and a decrease of 6% in the likelihood of labor participation. We also present evidence that economic vulnerability is not the only or main cause for school dropout and argue that efforts complementary to CCT, such as improving instruction quality and offering more information on the returns to education, are needed to increase attendance and completion and to reduce child labor outcomes.

Natural resources and human development: Role of ICT in testing the resource-curse hypothesis in N11 and BRICS countries

Resource-based countries, such as the Next Eleven (N11) and BRICS countries, have been plagued by economic vulnerability due to due to their heavy dependence on the resource industry. Information communication technologies (ICT) has been innovatively applied in the environmental field, which has a potential to break the resource curse. Previous studies have not systematically investigated impacts of ICT on resource curse in both N11 and BRICS nations. This study explores impacts of ICT development on natural resource rents, analyzes the hypothesis of resource curse from the perspective of human development, and determines whether the development of ICT can delay or even avoid the resource curse in N11 and BRICS countries from 2002 to 2019 based on a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and a quantile regression model. Results show that there is heterogeneity in the impact of resource dependence on the human development index (HDI) in the N11 and BRICS countries across quantiles. A resource curse exists in N11 countries while a resource blessing occurs in BRICS countries. ICT development mitigated the negative impact of natural resource rents on HDI in N11 countries but enhanced positive impacts of natural resource rents on HDI in BRICS countries. This paper provides insights for resource-based countries to break resource curse and formulate short- and long-term natural resource endowment strategies for national sustainable development.

Geographies of Frontline Workers: Gender, Race, and Commuting in New York City

The COVID-19 pandemic amplified social, economic, and environmental inequalities in American cities, including inequities in commuting and access to employment. Frontline workers—those who had to work on site during the pandemic—experienced these inequalities in every aspect of their daily lives. We examine the labor force characteristics and commuting of frontline workers in New York City with a focus on gender and race/ethnic disparities in wages and commuting modes and times. Using Census PUMS microdata for a sample of New York City residents in the 2015–2019 period, we identify frontline workers from detailed industry and occupation codes and compare characteristics of frontline workers with those of essential workers who could work remotely. The data highlight wide disparities between frontline and remote workers. Minority men and women are concentrated in the frontline workforce. The residential geographies of frontline and remote workers differ greatly, with the former concentrated in low- and moderate- income areas distant from work sites and with long commute times. Compared to men, women frontline workers rely heavily on public transit to commute and transit dependence is highest among Black and Latina women. Low-wage employment, long commute times, and transit dependence intersected to increase minority women’s economic and social vulnerability during the pandemic.

Nature of Human Rights Violation on Female Garments Workers in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, a fast-growing developing country, has been experiencing rapid development in export-oriented industrialization. The total contribution of the garment industries to the national foreign exchange earnings is around 83%. About 80% of garment workers are women, and most have migrated from rural areas to industrial cities. Female workers have been an important factor in the growth of the garment industry in Bangladesh. Despite its contribution to the national economy and employment opportunities, the garment industry in Bangladesh is beset by many grievances. Such as sexual harassment, health problems, lack of toilet facilities, exploitation of low-paid and overworked workers and large-scale social insecurity. The present research analyzed such violations from different aspects with a qualitative approach, The main objective of this paper is to find out the types and nature of human rights violations that occur against female garment workers in Bangladesh. The present research combines both exploratory and descriptive methods. Sampled garment workers from two selected factories were surveyed and interviewed to understand the practical situation at the field level. The data findings have provided a complete picture of the nature of the human rights violations that occurred. The human rights of women workers have been found to be violated from all nine indicators. The patriarchal socio-economic setting and economic vulnerability of the women and their lack of awareness, as well as reluctance and quick profit motive of the factory owners, have contributed most to such unwanted situations.

Exploring the risk and economic vulnerability of global energy supply chain interruption in the context of Russo-Ukrainian war

The Russo-Ukrainian war intensified the risk of global energy supply chain disruption, causing not only sharp fluctuations in energy prices in a short period of time but also disruptions to the global energy supply and economic and trade orders, with profound effects on global political and economic patterns in the long term. To explore the macroeconomic impact of the energy interruption caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war, a global multi-regional, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model was used for the empirical analysis. The results show that trade interruption alone would significantly impact the Ukrainian economy, causing its real GDP to fall by 4.18%. However, if the United States (US) and the Europe Union (EU) stop importing energy from Russia, the latter's economy will suffer a devastating blow, with a maximum decline in its real GDP reaching 5.49%. Developed countries are likely to incur heavy economic costs owing to their energy sanctions imposed against Russia. However, these costs are mainly borne by European nations, whereas the US suffers limited economic losses. Moreover, the Russo-Ukrainian war has limited impacts on global carbon abatement. In the strictest scenario, global energy consumption and carbon emissions will decrease by 0.600% and 0.915%, respectively. Exploring the boundary effects of the Russo-Ukrainian war on economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions is useful for understanding the complex relationship between geopolitical conflicts, natural resource utilization, and carbon emissions.

Improving tornado casualty predictions in the US with population exposure data and a modified social vulnerability index

Tornadoes are frequent and widespread events that often account for hundreds of injuries and fatalities, and millions of dollars in damages. Multiple studies have analyzed tornado climatology and associated exposure; however, fewer have focused on predicting fatalities and injuries by coupling geospatial data on tornado characteristics and underlying social and economic vulnerability. In this study, we test the ability of negative binomial regression models to predict tornado-induced injuries and fatalities by coupling data on physical characteristics of tornadoes, exposure of populations, and underlying social vulnerability. We also present a modified spatially weighted social vulnerability index (SVIwt*). We used 10-year (2005–2014) tornado data over the continental United States for this analysis. The results of this study indicate that the tornado length, magnitude and nocturnality seem to be the major hazard-related indicators of fatalities (McFadden's Pseudo-R2 ranged from 0.01 to 0.12). Population exposure and SVIwt* are positive and statistically significant in predicting tornado related fatalities and injuries (Pseudo R2 of 0.11–0.18). Although combining SVIwt* with hazard variables does not substantially improve model fit when compared to adding population exposure, combining SVIwt*, hazard and exposure results in better predictions of both injuries and fatalities (Pseudo R2 of 0.17) and is also an improvement on previous similar studies.

Framework for Assessment of the Economic Vulnerability of Energy-Resource-Exporting Countries

Energy security is widely examined from the perspective of energy import vulnerability, but it is less common to evaluate the vulnerability of energy exporters. This paper presents an assessment framework and quantitative scorecard for evaluating the economic vulnerability of countries with significant energy exports. The background research of various related conceptual frameworks distils useful insights from energy security, corporate risks, and general economic vulnerability. Carbon exposure, largely missing from related work, is introduced to the study in new factors to evaluate exporter vulnerability to increasing global action on climate change. A holistic view is taken of all energy resource exports as a novel approach, rather than focusing on individual fuels. The developed scorecard is used to provide case studies of five major global energy exporters with comparative analysis between countries and over time.

THE DRAMA OF HUMAN TRAFFICKING INVOLVING WOMEN AND GIRLS: THE HOTSPOTS AREAS AND BRAZIL’S LEGISLATION

The present study presents a discussion on human trafficking of women and female children, which occurs mostly for the purpose of sexual exploitation. The general objective is to analyze the internal and external trafficking of persons in Brazil, with specific objectives to map the hotspot areas of trafficking of women and female children; to study the necessary measures to combat this crime; and to examine human trafficking in light of Brazilian legislation. To this end, the deductive and bibliographic methods were used based on articles from the WoS (Web of Science) and the Chicago Press databases. The approach method was mixed, as the research was based on data from the Brazilian report on human trafficking, IPEA data, and the Brazilian forum on public security. It was determined that women and girls are easy targets, given their greater social and economic vulnerability. From the mapping of the hotspot zones in Brazil, it was found that the state of Minas Gerais leads in the ranking. The Brazilian criminal legislation that addresses trafficking underwent a revision in 2016, when legislators began treating the criminal conduct under examination in a more comprehensive way, according to International Resolution no. 217a, of the III United Nations General Assembly of 10.12.1948 and signed by Brazil on the same date. Furthermore, preventive measures must be adopted by the Brazilian State in order to curb the rates of this offense. As the crime of human trafficking is a transnational conduct, it requires greater cooperation between countries.

Closer in hard times? The drivers of European solidarity in ‘normal’ and ‘crisis’ times

AbstractThis article examines the trends and differences in predictors of public support for European Union (EU) fiscal solidarity using two individual surveys conducted in 2019 and 2020, before and during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, in six Western European countries. We focus on individual self-interest and European/national identification as the two major determinants of public preference formation. Empirical analyses show that, while the average level of public support for European fiscal solidarity did not change from 2019 to 2020, the negative associations between exclusive national identification and economic vulnerability, on the one hand, and EU fiscal solidarity on the other were weakened. Among both, the identitarian source retained substantive (although reduced) relevance in 2020, while utility did not. Country-level analyses reveal a more complex picture, but the overall pattern holds across the member states included in our sample. We argue that the reduced explanatory power of these typical heuristics that individuals use to shape their attitudes towards European solidarity is connected to the nature of the pandemic as an exogenous ‘common crisis’, affecting all member states in a supposedly symmetric manner, at least in the first phase, and inducing interdependencies among them.

Profile of emergency department overuse in hospitalized patients with pulmonary disease and its impact on mortality

Introduction and objectivesPortugal is one of the countries with the highest number of visits to the emergency department (ED), 31% classified as “non-urgent” or “avoidable.” The objectives of our study were to evaluate the size and characteristics of patients with pulmonary disease who overuse the ED, and identify factors associated with mortality. Materials and methodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted, based on the medical records of ED frequent users (ED-FU) with pulmonary disease who attended a university hospital center in the northern inner city of Lisbon from January 1 to December 31, 2019. To evaluate mortality, a follow-up until December 31, 2020 was performed. ResultsOver 5,567 (4.3%) patients were identified as ED-FU and 174 (0.14%) had pulmonary disease as the main clinical condition, accounting for 1,030 ED visits. 77.2% of ED visits were categorized as “urgent/very urgent.” A high mean age (67.8 years), male gender, social and economic vulnerability, high burden of chronic disease and comorbidities, with a high degree of dependency, characterized the profile of these patients. A high proportion (33.9%) of patients did not have a family physician assigned and this was the most important factor associated with mortality (p<0.001; OR: 24.394; CI 95%: 6.777–87.805). Advanced cancer disease and autonomy deficit were other clinical factors that most determined the prognosis. ConclusionsPulmonary ED-FU are a small group of ED-FU who constitute an aged and heterogeneous group with a high burden of chronic disease and disability. The lack of an assigned family physician was the most important factor associated with mortality, as well as advanced cancer disease and autonomy deficit.

ANALISIS TINGKAT KERENTANAN BENCANA (STUDI KASUS: KAWASAN CAGAR BUDAYA CANDI MUARA JAMBI)

Cagar Budaya Candi Muara Jambi Area is one of the national heritages which is a cultural heritage in Jambi Province with an area of 3,981 hectares. The located of Kawasan Cagar Budaya Candi Muara Jambi is at the estuary of the Batanghari River which poses a threat to the flood disaster of the Batanghari River in every rainy season. The study aims to maaping the level of vulnerability and to analyse the level of disaster vulnerability by reducing the impact of losses and the impact of disaster due to the Batanghari River flood disaster in the Kawasan Cagara Budaya Candi Muara Jambi. Determination of the level of disaster vulnerability through four parameters of vulnerability, they are social vulnerability, economic vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability. The approach of the studi is GIS approach with an analysis of the level disaster vulnerability is using overlay, scoring, and weighting techniques. The results of the study is disaster vulnerability level of flood disaster in Kawasan Cagar Budaya Candi Muara Jambi is at medium level of disaster vulnerability.&#x0D; Keywords: flood disaster; watersheds; vulnerability disaster.