Economic Trade-offs Research Articles

The economics of saignée in winemaking

AbstractThe winemaking technique of saignée is common for some varietals, and the ensuing flavor profiles have been carefully analyzed by oenologists. However, we argue that saignée is fundamentally about economic tradeoffs between the quantity of primary wine that is ultimately produced, the quality (and thus, price) of that wine, and the amount of rosé wine that is bled off in the process. We develop the first theoretically-grounded economic model of saignée and analyze the model to shed light on the winemaker's optimal choice of saignée, and on the properties of wine and wine markets that should empirically give rise to more, or less, saignée. The model helps to explain several real-world regularities such as the absence of saignée for most Bordeaux wines, the specialization in rosé for many wines in Provence, and the practice of moderate amounts of saignée for varietals such as grenache and pinot noir.

Research on comprehensive method of equipment update decision

Aiming at the decision-making problem of equipment update, this article judges the relationship between the equipment's natural life, technical life and economic life, considers five update schemes of the equipment maintenance and replacement, and gives a comprehensive update decision-making process. From the perspective of economic trade-offs, this paper establishes the equipment present value cost model and the unit use cost model to determine the optimal update schemes.

Traditional crops and climate change adaptation: insights from the Andean agricultural sector

ABSTRACT The growth of traditional crops could be a primary resource for adapting to climate change and strengthening agrosystems’ resilience. However, these crops tend to be replaced by non-traditional crops with higher productivity, higher market values, and higher short-term income. In this context, smallholders face trade-offs between maximizing short-term income and ensuring resilience to face likely future climate adversities. The economic assessment of such trade-offs has been commonly neglected in the literature. Most studies are conducted using agronomic or anthropological frameworks to recognize the value of traditional agriculture to increase adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability. This study fills this gap by assessing economic and agronomic trade-offs between traditional and non-traditional crops triggered by climate-induced changes in water availability. We also simulate the effectiveness of a water policy. Our results suggest that farmers growing traditional crops may get lower profits, but their portfolio is more resilient to climate change, whereas the water policy proves to be an effective adaptation strategy to climate change. However, the policy implementation could hinder the development of traditional crops. Based on our results, we suggest implementing smart agricultural policies to balance economic, cultural, and adaptation goals.

Climate-Related Disclosures: What Are the Economic Trade-Offs?

Climate-Related Disclosures: What Are the Economic Trade-Offs?

Managing biological, economic and social trade-offs in the Australian Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery

Context Maximum sustainable yield and maximum economic yield are often advocated as desirable biological and economic objectives for fisheries management, and the analysis of trade-offs associated is often absent from scientific advice. Aims This work aims to demonstrate an operational approach for comparing trade-offs of not only biological, and economic objectives, but also social objectives, in this case for maintaining affordable fish prices for the Australian public. Methods We use a simulation model of the multi-species, the Australian Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery, characterised by technical and economic interactions among harvested stocks, and apply an eco-viability approach to identify catch limits on two key species of the fishery (tiger flathead and pink ling). Key results Several trade-offs are highlighted related to the distribution of benefits among vessel owners, fishing crews and consumers. Maximising the economic returns to vessel owners, which is the current management objective of the fishery, correspondingly reduces social benefits of providing employment as fishing crews and raises consumer prices. Conclusions Maximising fishery profits as a management objective comes at a social cost for crew members and fish consumers. Implications Analysing trade-offs with an eco-viability approach helps inform decisions regarding fisheries management, fully accounting for the different dimensions of biological, economic and social sustainability.

Evaluation of Australia’s Generation-Storage Requirements in a Fully Renewable Grid With Intermittent and Flexible Generation

Energy storage is crucial for grids with high renewable penetration to ensure reliable power supply during low renewable generation periods and address the intermittency associated with weather-dependent resources. However, sizing grid-scale storage is challenging due to its interdependence on renewable generation and load profiles. This paper investigates the minimization of storage requirements for Australian grids as a case study in a fully renewable scenario and examines how inflexible generation (such as solar and wind) and flexible generation (such as hydro) affect the capacity requirements. We extend our analysis to the economic trade-off between investing in increased storage versus intentional excess renewable generation. Subsequently, the optimum generation-storage requirement is analyzed, and regional requirements with and without interconnectors are estimated. Finally, we analyze storage annual utilization and present a sensitivity analysis to variations in technology costs. The quantitative results suggest that optimal storage size is contingent upon the renewable mix, and while solar generation is cost-competitive, higher contributions from wind generation and strategic dispatch of hydro generation are required to achieve an optimum generation-storage solution. We show that storage with a power capacity slightly lower than the mean annual demand with a duration of one day is required for Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM). These findings underscore the importance of carefully balancing the renewable mix to achieve an efficient and cost-effective grid. Based on estimated future costs for long-duration storage and generation technology, the optimum generation-storage solution will translate into an investment of approximately 9.8% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—this investment is achievable when amortized over 10–15 years for the transition to a near-100% renewable grid.

Plant population density in cotton: Addressing knowledge gaps in stand uniformity and lint quality under dryland and irrigated conditions

A recent literature review and data synthesis better defined the yield curve with plant population density in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), but it also highlighted gaps in knowledge. Few cotton plant population studies have been conducted in relatively low-yielding dryland conditions; fewer have considered the impact of uneven crop stands, which are common in actual field conditions due to planting equipment errors and seed/plant mortality; and population reports that include fiber quality measurements by Advanced Fiber Information System (AFIS) testing are lacking (rather than just the standard High Volume Instrument (HVI) measurements). To address these issues, a study was conducted in North Texas, USA with treatment combinations of two irrigation levels (0% and 90% ET replacement), five plant population densities (15,000, 30,000, 60,000, 90,000, and 120,000 plants ha-1), and two stand uniformities (even and uneven plant-to-plant spacing within rows). Canopy development was tracked by unmanned aircraft system (UAS) measurements, late-season measurements were taken of boll density and size, and lint yield and quality measurements were collected at maturity. Lint yield was unaffected by plant population density in 2020 (i.e. 15,000–120,000 plants ha-1), whereas an interaction between irrigation and plant population occurred in 2021. Lint yield was reduced by 19% with 15,000 plants ha-1 relative to 120,000 plants ha-1 under only irrigated conditions in 2021. There was no substantial or consistent effect of stand uniformity on any response variable in either year. Poor stand quality is often the basis for terminating and replanting or replacing troubled cotton crops, but these results suggest this is not justified when overall population density is 30,000 plants ha-1 or greater, depending on production environment. The risk of yield loss is clearly greater when overall plant density decreases below this level, especially in higher-yielding conditions, but the economic tradeoffs of replanting or replacing the crop must be considered. In the cotton plant, yield compensation for low plant density and uneven stands occurred primarily by increased boll number per plant and secondarily by increased boll size. Fiber quality parameters as measured by HVI and AFIS were minimally and inconsistently affected by population density and stand uniformity, suggesting that population dynamics are not critical factors cotton producers must consider in optimizing the fiber quality of their product.

Compositional analysis of live fish import trade in India

The live fish import trade in India under the harmonised system (HS) code 0301 (HS-0301) increased exponentially in terms of import quantity and value during the period 2000-2019. India imported 1.32 t of live fish worth US $ 0.017 million in 2000, which increased to 653.27 t worth US $ 3.21 million in 2019. The import of both marine as well as freshwater ornamental fish was found to increase during the period 2013-2019. The major countries exporting marine and freshwater ornamental fish to India were Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Sri Lanka. The import of live trout and carp to India was found to be very less during the period 2000-2019. The majority of live fish import to India accounted in the subclass HS030199 since 2017, with 81.55, 91.86 and 74.03% of total live fish imported to India in 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. Bangladesh accounted 81.02, 87.84 and 83.11% of total import quantity and 0.74, 82.42 and 49.51% of total import value under the sub-head HS-030199 during 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. While import of live fish offers economic opportunities, it has the potential to bring biosecurity threats including fish pathogens to Indian waters. The economic trade-off is to be evaluated on a case to case basis supported with legal and institutional back-up. Enacting a comprehensive legal framework and creating quarantine facilities are critical in this direction. Keywords: Compositional analysis, HS-0301, Import, Ornamental fish, , Trade balance

“Green” innovation, privacy regulation and environmental policy

We present a Hotelling duopoly and study the relationship between privacy regulation and environmental policy in an industry in which firms invest in “green” innovation (E-R&D) to reduce emissions in production. This research concludes that governments need to set emission taxes consistent with privacy regulations. With strong privacy protections, emission taxes should be higher than the case with no privacy protections. In the asymmetric case with poor privacy regulation, the optimal emission tax is highest to achieve emissions reductions. In addition, an economic trade-off can arise from the industry profits and E-R&D investment. With weak privacy regulation, the effort of E-R&D is highest, and corporatedo the least harm to the environment, while the industrial profits are lowest due to the massive tax burden. Finally, we suggest that policymakers should (i) combine reasonable emission tax policies and green finance for renewable energy projects, (ii) conduct weak privacy regulations on green finance and renewable energy projects, and (iii) encourage uniform pricing for renewable energy products from a competition policy perspective.

A Novel HydroEconomic - Econometric Approach for Integrated Transboundary Water Management Under Uncertainty

The optimal management of scarce transboundary water resources among competitive users is expected to be challenged by the effects of climate change on water availability. The multiple economic and social implications, including conflicts between neighbouring countries, as well as competitive sectors within each country are difficult to estimate and predict, to inform policy-making. In this paper, this problem is approached as a stochastic multistage dynamic game: we develop and apply a novel framework for assessing and evaluating different international strategies regarding transboundary water resources use, under conditions of hydrological uncertainty. The Omo-Turkana transboundary basin in Africa is used as a case study application, since it increasingly faces the above challenges, including the international tension between Kenya and Ethiopia and each individual country’s multi-sectoral competition for water use. The mathematical framework combines a hydro-economic model (water balance, water costs and benefits), and an econometric model (production functions and water demand curves) which are tested under cooperative and non-cooperative conditions (Stackelberg “leader–follower” game). The results show the cross-country and cross-sectoral water use—economic trade-offs, the future water availability for every game case, the sector-specific production function estimations (including residential, agriculture, energy, mining, tourism sectors), with nonparametric treatment, allowing for technical inefficiency in production and autocorrelated Total Factor Productivity, providing thus a more realistic simulation. Cooperation between the two countries is the most beneficial case for future water availability and economic growth. The study presents a replicable, sophisticated modelling framework, for holistic transboundary water management.

The economics of sensor-based management of dairy cow suboptimal mobility.

Suboptimal mobility (SOM) is a costly health condition in dairy production. Current SOM management is based on visual SOM detection by farm staff. This often leads to cows with severe SOM being detected and promptly treated, whereas the detection and subsequent treatment of cows with mild SOM is delayed or nonexistent resulting in prolonged cases of mild SOM being treated only at half-year routine hoof trimming. Using automatic SOM detection sensors may improve early detection of mild SOM allowing for improved SOM management. However, the economic value of these sensors used for sensor-based SOM management are not well known. The objective of this study was to evaluate the added economic value of automatic SOM detection sensors. A recently developed bioeconomic simulation model was extended to simulate a farm without and with automatic SOM detection sensors and farm economic performance comparisons were drawn. Moreover, for the farm with sensors, novel sensor-based SOM management strategies were designed. Within these sensor based-management strategies multiple scenarios with different sensor performance in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and mobility score detection were simulated. A new alert prioritization method was also introduced. Results from this study provide insights on the economic tradeoffs in production losses and additional labor costs for the different sensor-based management strategies, sensor performances, and alert prioritization. Simulations show that the added economic value of automatic SOM detection sensors are sensitive to the sensor-based management strategies, sensor performance, and the introduced alert prioritization method. Thirty-nine of the 80 simulated scenarios obtained a positive mean net economic sensor effect: the highest was €6,360 per year (€51/cow per yr). Based on evidence from our scenarios we suggest that twice-yearly routine hoof trimming with the addition of automatic SOM detection sensors should be replaced with cow specific hoof trimmer treatments following SOM detection by the sensor. Earlier detection and subsequent treatment of mild SOM resulted in economic gains when the alert prioritization method was introduced. Implementing automatic SOM detection sensor systems allows for many options to alter SOM management where improvements in farm economic performance can be achieved in combination with improved cow mobility. The implications for future research are discussed.

Performance Measurement of the Sustainable Supply Chain During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A real-life case study

Abstract This paper aims to introduce a framework to measure the sustainable performance of the supply chain (SC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The SC stakeholders in this investigation are Suppliers, Production / Remanufacturing / Refurbishing Centers (Factories), Collection / Distribution Centers, Recycling / Landfill Centers, and Customers. The suggested sustainable supply chain (SSC) performance measurement included three pillars with 23 indicators. To evaluate the overall sustainability of the SC understudy, a composite index has been developed that combines all the indicators to reflect the sustainability performance of the SC. Four steps are involved in creating a composite index:1) measuring the value of indicators, 2) weighing indicators, 3) Using the normalization technique, and 4) Evaluating the overall SSC indicator. The real case in Iran is selected as an illustrative case. Our research contributions are: We suggested a novelty indicator of SSC to better show the economic, environmental, and social tradeoffs during the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns. We have found and measured the negative and positive impacts of COVID-19 on aspects of sustainability in SC. Based on the achieved data of the real case study, a numerical example is represented to explain how to calculate the composite index. The main contribution of this paper is the development of SSC indicators during the COVID-19 epidemic.

Environmental and Economic Impacts of Managing Nutrients in Digestate Derived from Sewage Sludge and High-Strength Organic Waste.

Increasingly stringent limits on nutrient discharges are motivating water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) to consider the implementation of sidestream nutrient removal or recovery technologies. To further increase biogas production and reduce landfilled waste, WRRFs with excess anaerobic digestion capacity can accept other high-strength organic waste (HSOW) streams. The goal of this study was to characterize and evaluate the life-cycle global warming potential (GWP), eutrophication potential, and economic costs and benefits of sidestream nutrient management and biosolid management strategies following digestion of sewage sludge augmented by HSOW. Five sidestream nutrient management strategies were analyzed using environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA) and life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for codigestion of municipal sewage sludge with and without HSOW. As expected, thermal stripping and ammonia stripping were characterized by a much lower eutrophication potential than no sidestream treatment; significantly higher fertilizer prices would be needed for this revenue stream to cover the capital and chemical costs. Composting all biosolids dramatically reduced the GWP relative to the baseline biosolid option but had slightly higher eutrophication potential. These complex environmental and economic tradeoffs require utilities to consider their social, environmental, and economic values in addition to present or upcoming nutrient discharge limits prior to making decisions in sidestream and biosolids management.

What tradeoffs are made on the path to functional zero chronic homelessness?

Built for Zero (BFZ) is a resource allocation method for homeless systems that has gained popularity in North America. Community Solutions, the organization that created/promotes BFZ, argues system managers can end homelessness by using business management techniques to flexibly allocate housing assistance and achieve systemwide benchmarks like functional zero chronic homelessness. Little research has analyzed how BFZ strategies are applied to homeless systems. This is a notable blind spot because homeless systems confront different barriers/enablers that facilitate/constrain BFZ integration. I extend housing scholarship by using ethnographic data of referral meetings in a large U.S. County to analyze managerial use of BFZ strategies promoted by Community Solutions. I show political economic constraints force macro-micro tradeoffs on the path to functional zero that marginalize the wants/needs of some clients by referring them to suboptimal housing. My findings show equitable progress to functional zero requires adequate housing resources so the wants/needs of service recipients are not sidelined.

Exploring the Optimal Scale of Coastal Reclamation Activities Based on an Environmental Capacity Assessment System: A Case Study in Haizhou Bay, China

With the acceleration of urbanization, the demand for land due to urban large-scale construction and development is increasing. Coastal reclamation (CR) is a prevailing approach to tackle the contradiction between coastal land shortage and the growing demand for living space for human beings. Enormous social and economic benefits are derived from CR, while at the same time bringing a series of environmental problems. Since the beginning of the 21st century, this oceanic-oriented development has become more frequent. Therefore, the considerable economic and ecological trade-offs of reclamation activities must be analyzed to enable targeted land use decisions. By comprehensively evaluating the natural conditions of the sea area, including geology, topography, hydrology, ecology, and social and economic conditions, this study established an environmental capacity assessment system (ECAS) based on water environmental capacity for assessment of the potential environmental impact resulting from CR. According to the water quality status and positions of CR in Haizhou Bay, the environmental capacities of four major pollutants were calculated to forecast the suitable area of CR. The results indicated that these reclamation projects had notable negative effects on the environmental capacity of the four major pollutants. The order of pollutants according to their harm on seawater quality is: PO4-P > NH4-N > NOX-N > COD. In three reclamation alternative scenarios, scenario 3 led to the minimum negative impacts on the environmental capacity, scenario 2 followed, and scenario 1 had the worst result. Hence, scenario 3 was the optimal reclamation scenario, under which the suitable area of CR in Haizhou Bay was found to be 83 km2. This study provides a scientific reference for the effective management of coastal reclamation and future environmental impact research when new CR is proposed, as well as sustainable urban development.

(Invited) In Pursuit of the Fountain of Youth for Organic-Based Aqueous Flow Batteries

The ability to store large amounts of electrical energy is of increasing importance with the growing fraction of electricity generation from intermittent renewable sources such as wind and solar. We have developed high performance flow batteries based on the aqueous redox behavior of small organic and metalorganic molecules, e.g. [1-9]. These redox active materials can be inexpensive and exhibit rapid redox kinetics, high solubilities, and long lifetimes, although short lifetimes are more common [7, 10]. We will discuss the economic tradeoff between upfront capital cost and periodic chemical replacement cost [11]. We discuss the very few chemistries with long enough calendar life for practical application in stationary storage [3-6, 9], and on the prospects for reversing capacity fade by recomposing decomposed molecules [8, 12].[1] B. Huskinson, M.P. Marshak, C. Suh, S. Er, M.R. Gerhardt, C.J. Galvin, X. Chen, A. Aspuru-Guzik, R.G. Gordon and M.J. Aziz, "A metal-free organic-inorganic aqueous flow battery", Nature 505, 195 (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature12909 [2] K. Lin, Q. Chen, M.R. Gerhardt, L. Tong, S.B. Kim, L. Eisenach, A.W. Valle, D. Hardee, R.G. Gordon, M.J. Aziz and M.P. Marshak, "Alkaline Quinone Flow Battery", Science 349, 1529 (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aab3033 [3] E.S. Beh, D. De Porcellinis, R.L. Gracia, K.T. Xia, R.G. Gordon and M.J. Aziz, "A Neutral pH Aqueous Organic/Organometallic Redox Flow Battery with Extremely High Capacity Retention", ACS Energy Letters 2, 639 (2017). http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acsenergylett.7b00019 [4] D.G. Kwabi, K. Lin, Y. Ji, E.F. Kerr, M.-A. Goulet, D. DePorcellinis, D.P. Tabor, D.A. Pollack, A. Aspuru-Guzik, R.G. Gordon, and M.J. Aziz, “Alkaline Quinone Flow Battery with Long Lifetime at pH 12” Joule 2, 1907 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2018.07.005 [5] Y. Ji, M.-A. Goulet, D.A. Pollack, D.G. Kwabi, S. Jin, D. DePorcellinis, E.F. Kerr, R.G. Gordon, and M.J. Aziz, “A phosphonate-functionalized quinone redox flow battery at near-neutral pH with record capacity retention rate” Advanced Energy Materials 2019, 1900039; https://doi.org/10.1002/aenm.201900039 [6] M. Wu, Y. Jing, A.A. Wong, E.M. Fell, S. Jin, Z. Tang, R.G. Gordon and M.J. Aziz, “Extremely Stable Anthraquinone Negolytes Synthesized from Common Precursors” Chem 6, 1432 (2020); https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chempr.2020.03.021 [7] M.-A. Goulet & M.J. Aziz, “Flow Battery Molecular Reactant Stability Determined by Symmetric Cell Cycling Methods”, J. Electrochem. Soc. 165, A1466 (2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.1149/2.0891807jes [8] M.-A. Goulet, L. Tong, D.A. Pollack, D.P. Tabor, S.A. Odom, A. Aspuru-Guzik, E.E. Kwan, R.G. Gordon, and M.J. Aziz, “Extending the lifetime of organic flow batteries via redox state management” J. Am. Chem. Soc. 141, 8014 (2019); https://doi.org/10.1021/jacs.8b13295 [9] M. Wu, M. Bahari, E.M. Fell, R.G. Gordon and M.J. Aziz, “High-performance anthraquinone with potentially low cost for aqueous redox flow batteries” J. Mater. Chem. A 9, 26709-26716 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1039/D1TA08900E [10] D.G. Kwabi, Y.L. Ji and M.J. Aziz, “Electrolyte Lifetime in Aqueous Organic Redox Flow Batteries: A Critical Review” Chem. Rev. 120, in press (2020); https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.chemrev.9b00599 [11] F.R. Brushett, M.J. Aziz and K.E. Rodby, “On lifetime and cost of redox-active organics for aqueous flow batteries” Invited Viewpoint article for ACS Energy Letters. 5, 879 (2020); https://doi.org/10.1021/acsenergylett.0c00140 [12] Y. Jing, E.W. Zhao, M.-A. Goulet, M. Bahari, E. Fell, S. Jin, A. Davoodi, Erlendur Jónsson, M. Wu, C.P. Grey, R.G. Gordon and M.J. Aziz, “Closing the Molecular Decomposition-Recomposition Loop in Aqueous Organic Flow Batteries” Nature Chemistry, in press (2022). Preprint: http://dx.doi.org/10.33774/chemrxiv-2021-x05x1

Co-products recovery does not necessarily mitigate environmental and economic tradeoffs in lithium-ion battery recycling

Although spent lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) recycling could reduce raw materials production, environmental and economic tradeoffs may not necessarily neutralize impacts associated with additional inputs. Here, we evaluated life cycle environmental and economic tradeoffs of traditional hydrometallurgy for mixed spent LIBs recycling. We revealed impacts of the main and co-products recycling, and their contribution to the impacts from the overall recycling process. Cobalt was the main product due to the highest market value, Li2CO3, nickel, Na2SO4, and graphite were co-products which require additional recycling procedures to obtain. Results suggest co-products recycling doubled the net greenhouse gas emission, and the economic gain decreased by $26 compared to the main product recycling (per kg Co recycled). Conversely, human health impacts were mitigated by co-products recycling due to avoiding virgin co-products production. Our work highlighted that optimizing co-products recycling is vital to minimizing environmental impacts and enhancing the economic feasibility of spent LIB recycling.

Modeling protected species distributions and habitats to inform siting and management of pioneering ocean industries: A case study for Gulf of Mexico aquaculture.

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) provides a process that uses spatial data and models to evaluate environmental, social, economic, cultural, and management trade-offs when siting (i.e., strategically locating) ocean industries. Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food sector in the world. The United States (U.S.) has substantial opportunity for offshore aquaculture development given the size of its exclusive economic zone, habitat diversity, and variety of candidate species for cultivation. However, promising aquaculture areas overlap many protected species habitats. Aquaculture siting surveys, construction, operations, and decommissioning can alter protected species habitat and behavior. Additionally, aquaculture-associated vessel activity, underwater noise, and physical interactions between protected species and farms can increase the risk of injury and mortality. In 2020, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was identified as one of the first regions to be evaluated for offshore aquaculture opportunities as directed by a Presidential Executive Order. We developed a transparent and repeatable method to identify aquaculture opportunity areas (AOAs) with the least conflict with protected species. First, we developed a generalized scoring approach for protected species that captures their vulnerability to adverse effects from anthropogenic activities using conservation status and demographic information. Next, we applied this approach to data layers for eight species listed under the Endangered Species Act, including five species of sea turtles, Rice’s whale, smalltooth sawfish, and giant manta ray. Next, we evaluated four methods for mathematically combining scores (i.e., Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Product, Lowest Scoring layer) to generate a combined protected species data layer. The Product approach provided the most logical ordering of, and the greatest contrast in, site suitability scores. Finally, we integrated the combined protected species data layer into a multi-criteria decision-making modeling framework for MSP. This process identified AOAs with reduced potential for protected species conflict. These modeling methods are transferable to other regions, to other sensitive or protected species, and for spatial planning for other ocean-uses.

Selecting reservoir reconstruction schemes from an ecological-economic trade-off perspective: Model building and case study

Ecosystem service is the medium of interaction between humans and ecosystems. Reservoirs supply seasonal water to water-scarce areas and have been an important part of the regional ecosystem for their ecological impacts, also providing ecosystem services as an artificial ecosystem. The design and modification of reservoirs can affect the function of the reservoir itself and indirectly change its ecological benefits. In past studies, the selection of reconstruction options only considered the reservoir system, ignoring the long-term interaction within the regional ecosystems and socio-economic systems. To better evaluate the combined effects of schemes, this paper proposes a selection framework based on ecosystem service theory. The ecosystem services value and regional benefits of the reservoir are assessed, the long-term effect is simulated by constructing a dynamic model based on water flow, and the appropriate scheme is certified by the evaluation indicators. The framework is carried out in a case application for Datun reservoir in Shandong Province, China. It is found that: The ecosystem services value of Datun grows from 130.01 to 236.49 M RMB during 2014–2020. The level of ecological benefits is expected to decrease gradually after 2043 because of leakage and evaporation losses. Reconstruction can improve Datun's ability to serve the area, but the ecological and economic trade-offs between the different technology options vary widely. The main contribution of this paper is to weigh the continuous ecological benefits and inputs of different reconstruction schemes from a sustainable, systematic perspective, which is conducive to realizing the healthy operation of reservoirs and promoting regional development.

Waterborne arsenic and fluoride exposure in Mexico: risk assessment and epidemiological research on their health effects

Many aquifers in Mexico contain toxic levels of arsenic and fluoride; still, 39% of the population relies on groundwater for drinking. Our objectives were to evaluate the health risks of fluoride and arsenic in drinking water in central [Cuenca Alta del Río Laja (CARL)] and northern [Comarca Lagunera (CL)] Mexico, and to compare economic and health trade-offs of different aquifer pumping scenarios. In two CARL studies, we measured arsenic and fluoride in drinking water and fluoride in children’s urine; health risks were estimated through hazard quotients (HQ). In 2018 we assessed dental fluorosis (n=39) and in 2019, we measured intelligence quotient (IQ) (n=74). Another study modeled the revenues, costs, health, and income outcomes from increasing, decreasing, or maintaining the aquifer pumping rates over 100 years. The fourth study assessed cancer and non-cancer risks in CL according to arsenic levels in 91 wells. In CARL, children who drank groundwater had an increased fluoride risk of health effects (HQ= 1.5); 82% presented dental fluorosis, and their urine fluoride concentrations increased 0.96 mg/L per 1 mg/L increase in water fluoride (p < 0.001). Urine fluoride was negatively associated with IQ (β= -1.12, CI 95% -4.1, 1.8). Assuming increasing aquifer pumping rates in the next 100 years, arsenic and fluoride concentrations would increase to 40 μg/L and 2.1 mg/L, respectively, potentially diminishing IQ by 6 and 7 points, respectively. In CL, 90% of the sampled wells exceeded the WHO’s arsenic drinking water guidelines; the carcinogenic risk ranged from 2.6×10-⁵ to 6.1×10-³. Children in CARL and CL are drinking groundwater with toxic fluoride and arsenic concentrations that increase their cancer and non-cancer health risks to unacceptable levels. The health and economic benefits of mitigating exposure to arsenic and fluoride greatly exceed the benefits of increasing pumping for more agricultural production. Keywords: arsenic, fluoride, water, Mexico