Economic Stability Research Articles

Adoption of Appropriate Agricultural Model for Food Security in Guiping Town, Renshou County, China

Agriculture is an important foundation for a country's economic and social development and stability, and we must firmly give agricultural development a prominent position of priority. Guiping Town is a typical agricultural town in hilly area. The roads, water conservancy facilities and other agricultural production conditions are relatively insufficient, which restricts the development of characteristic and large-scale agriculture. In recent years, the national policy requires all localities to focus on the overall requirements of achieving self-sufficiency in domestic resources and ensuring food security, and must work hard in promoting farmland protection and control, sustainable agricultural development, and strengthening agricultural production support, so as to continuously consolidate and improve the level of agricultural scientific development. Based on the actual situation of Guiping, this paper, through a large number of interviews and surveys, literature review and scientific analysis methods, deeply explores the economic and environmental sustainability, adequate farmer income, future-oriented production capacity, improved food security and social sustainability, and finds a way out in agricultural innovation and development. Gradually explored a good agricultural development situation that basically realized the use of good land and grain and should be planted.

Comparative analysis of aggregate and sectoral time-varying market efficiency in the Russian stock market during the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine conflict (RUC)

PurposeThe primary purpose of this research is to identify and compare the multifractal behavior of different sectors during these crises and analyze their implications on market efficiency.Design/methodology/approachWe used multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to analyze stock returns from various sectors of the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) in between two significant periods. The COVID-19 pandemic (January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021) and the Russia–Ukraine conflict (RUC) (January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023). This method witnesses multifractality in financial time series data and tests the persistency and efficiency levels of each sector to provide meaningful insights.FindingsResults showcased persistent multifractal behavior across all sectors in between the COVID-19 pandemic and the RUC, spotting heightened arbitrage opportunities in the MOEX. The pandemic reported a greater speculative behavior, with the telecommunication and oil and gas sectors exhibiting reduced efficiency, recommending abnormal return potential. In contrast, financials and metals and mining sectors displayed increased efficiency, witnessing strong economic performance. Findings may enhance understanding of market dynamics during crises and provide strategic insights for the MOEX’s investors.Practical implicationsUnderstanding the multifractal properties and efficiency of different sectors during crisis periods is of paramount importance for investors and policymakers. The identified arbitrage opportunities and efficiency variations can aid investors in optimizing their investment strategies during such critical market conditions. Policymakers can also leverage these insights to implement measures that bolster economic stability and development during crisis periods.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by providing a comprehensive analysis of multifractal properties and efficiency in the context of the MOEX during two major crises. The application of MF-DFA to sectoral stock returns during these events adds originality to the study. The findings offer valuable implications for practitioners, researchers and policymakers seeking to navigate financial markets during turbulent times and enhance overall market resilience.

Financial Sustainability of Social Insurance: The Case of Korean Workers’ Compensation Insurance and Possibility of Triple Moral Hazard

Abstract This study examines the economic stability of Korean Workers’ Compensation Insurance (WCI), highlighting the system’s vulnerability to triple moral hazard. Korean WCI features more generous worker compensation, lower employer premiums, and more active government involvement in accident prevention in addition to a higher industrial accident rate, compared to the system in Germany and Japan. The negotiation process of the WCI among workers, employers, and insurance managers often prioritizes short-term benefits, undermining long-term financial health. Workers seek greater compensation, employers push for lower premiums, and insurance managers may prioritize collective interests, exacerbating the system’s economic instability. Over recent years, applications for occupational disease recognition have surged, and premium rates have decreased, indicating increasing strain. To mitigate these issues, the study proposes enhancing transparency and rationality, involving non-political experts in decision-making, and clearly defining the government’s role in managing WCI. These measures aim to balance stakeholder interests and ensure the WCI system’s sustainability for future generations.

Revisiting fiscal deficit sustainability and revenue-expenditure nexus in India

The COVID-19 epidemic has brought to the emergence of fiscal sustainability as an exceptionally challenging issue for both emerging and advanced economies. In this context, it is imperative to assess the sustainability of fiscal deficit in India for the Central and State level for the period 1970–71 to 2021–2022 and 1973–74 to 2021–22, respectively. Furthermore, the study also seeks to establish the cause-and-effect relationship between government expenditure and revenue. The application of Gregory-Hansen cointegration test supports sustainability of fiscal deficits for Central and State governments individually. Additionally, the ARDL model for cointegration indicates that both governments exhibit "weak" sustainability of the fiscal deficit. Finally, the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test provides evidence in favour of the "spend-tax hypothesis" for both governments. In this backdrop, the present study posits that it is essential for governments to implement fiscal consolidation and prudent fiscal policies in order to reduce the magnitude of the budget deficit, optimise the execution of monetary and exchange rate policies, and foster development driven by the private sector. This approach is crucial to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and economic stability in India, especially aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

PENGARUH INFLASI DAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP PEMBIAYAAN PADA BANK SYARIAH DI KOTA BANJARMASIN

Purpose: This study aims to determine the effect of inflation and interest rates on financing at Islamic banks in Banjarmasin city. Design/methodology/approach: This research uses quantitative methods. The data used is secondary data and time series. Data sourced from the pages of Bank Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority (OJK), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and data from Islamic Commercial Banks which are the objects of this study in the period 2014 to 2023. Findings: Based on the results of statistical data processing, the results of this study indicate that the value of Sig. Inflation variable (X1), amounting to 0.993> 0.05 and the tcount value of 0.009 < 2.571. Sig value. Interest Rate Variable (X2) is 0.066> 0.05 and the tcount value is -2.571 < 2.571. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously the inflation and interest rate variables affect financing at Islamic banks in Banjarmasin City. This can be proven by the value of Fcount 2.825 > Ftable 4.45. Research implications: Based on the research results, it is known that although inflation and interest rates have no effect on financing in Islamic banks, the government must remain effective in controlling macroeconomic activities to maintain the stability of inflation and interest rates, so that economic stability can be guaranteed.

A review of the intersection between climate change, agriculture, health, and nutrition in Africa: costs and programmatic options

BackgroundClimate change adversely affects Africa’s agriculture which would worsen the widespread food insecurity and nutritional deficiencies. Vulnerable populations, especially female farmers, women, and children are disproportionately affected.MethodsThe paper synthesizes available peer-reviewed and grey literature on the intersections of climate change, food insecurity, agriculture, gender disparities, health, child nutrition, and micronutrient deficiencies in Africa. It explores the economic ramifications of these factors, particularly their impact on public health and economic stability. The work aggregates insights into the current and future challenges of agricultural sustainability and the expected human capital development and economic costs of climate variations.ResultsThe prevalence of hunger and undernourishment in Africa is notably higher compared to other regions. Climate change directly threatens agriculture, with anticipated reductions in crop and livestock yields, compounded by the negative impact of greenhouse emissions on the nutritional quality of staple foods. Female farmers contribute notably to agriculture, but their labor share is less dominant than previously assumed. Exposure to high temperatures, especially for outdoor workers and pregnant women, presents significant health risks, further impacting agricultural and economic output. These interdependencies are presented in a framework along with suggested interventions that could be contextualized to address the climate drivers and interconnectivity across agriculture, health, and livelihoods.ConclusionThe interdependence between food, agriculture, health, nutrition, and human productivity, all of which are exacerbated by the impacts of climate change in Africa, form a complex challenge with profound health and economic implications. A multifaceted strategy is needed, encompassing climate-resilient farming practices, gender-sensitive interventions, health-focused measures like micronutrient supplementation, and comprehensive economic policies.

Application of K-Means Clustering and OR-Tools to Optimize Rice Distribution: A Case Study of Perum Bulog Indonesia

Food security is one of the Indonesian government's priority policies aimed at maintaining economic and political stability. To ensure the nutritional needs of its population are met, the government requires sufficient food availability distributed nationwide at stable and affordable prices. Rice is the main staple food in Indonesia. According to data from the National Food Agency, rice consumption in Indonesia is very high, averaging 139 kilograms per capita per year, with a dependency rate of 97%. In response to food security challenges, the Indonesian government has entrusted the Food Supply and Price Stabilization Program (SPHP) for rice to Perum BULOG, a State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) specializing in food logistics. To optimize distribution to Perum BULOG’s retailers, called Rumah Pangan Kita (RPK), efficient routes and transport capacity are prioritized. Therefore, this paper proposes an approach using the Heterogeneous Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (HCVRP) to enhance distribution efficiency and reduce delivery costs. By employing the K-Means algorithm to cluster RPK addresses and Guided Local Search via OR-Tools to determine suitable transportation types, this study successfully identified optimal delivery routes for each cluster and corresponding vehicle types. The results demonstrated a reduction in delivery costs of up to 21%, significantly improving the efficiency of the SPHP rice distribution process. This outcome ultimately supports rice availability and price stability, crucial for maintaining food security in Indonesia.

THE EVOLUTION AND FORECASTING OF SINO-KOREAN COMMODITY TRADE: A THEORETICAL EXPLORATION BASED ON GARCH AND MACHINE LEARNING MODELS

This paper examines the evolution of Sino-Korean commodity trade and explores the application of advanced econometric and machine learning models for forecasting commodity price volatility. With increasing interdependence between China and South Korea in trading key commodities such as crude oil, LNG, iron ore, and rare earth elements, accurate price forecasting has become crucial for managing economic risks and optimizing trade strategies. The study highlights the limitations of traditional econometric models like GARCH, which, while effective at capturing short-term volatility, struggle to account for the complex, nonlinear dynamics present in modern commodity markets. Machine learning models, including LSTM, random forests, and support vector machines, offer a more flexible and accurate approach by incorporating real-time data and adapting to market shifts. The combination of GARCH and machine learning in hybrid models further enhances forecasting accuracy. As both countries transition toward sustainable energy, the role of advanced forecasting tools will be pivotal in maintaining economic stability and fostering deeper trade cooperation. KEYWORDS：Sino-Korean commodity trade,GARCH model, Machine learning, Commodity price volatility, Crude oil forecasting, LNG and rare earth elements

Participación de las mujeres en las pymes en América del Sur

The crises directly affect the problem of cash flow, as a result of the confinement experienced, the consumption of different products and services showed a tendency to decrease significantly, which had its impact on the financial issue, where the emergency measures were drastic to avoid massive infections, which on the other hand accelerated a great decline in small and medium-sized businesses, which has triggered an increase in unemployment and even their definitive closure. Under this context, in Ecuador, as well as in Mexico, Colombia and Peru, where business ventures have energized the local economy, it is important to determine strategies that help effectively confront crises, especially in the case of women entrepreneurs, so that they can achieve achieve economic stability with a view to its growth and leadership that in turn allows it to generate sources of employment, as well as repower its products and services, which is currently essential for a good quality of life in society, thus empowering women. The methodology applied is with a Mixed, non-experimental, descriptive-transversal and deductive approach. In this sense, it is a matter of research to provide the segment under study with adequate administrative, financial and control strategies; how to handle it and how they should be carried out in the face of the current situation, thus promoting empowerment in unprotected sectors and highlighting, above all, interculturality and diversity in the countries.

An Analysis of Livestock Theft in South Africa (2013-2023): Towards a Deeper Understanding of Livestock Dynamics for Enhanced Countermeasures

Livestock theft poses a significant challenge to the agricultural sector in South Africa, impacting farmers’ livelihoods, food security, and economic stability. This article analyses livestock theft in South Africa for the ten-year period from 2013 to 2023. It draws on existing literature, government statistics, and analyses of livestock theft statistics. The study identifies the key factors contributing to livestock theft, including regional disparities, seasonal patterns, and the involvement of organised crime. Key findings reveal a steady decline in reported cases from the 2018/2019 financial reporting year, even though the number of stolen livestock has remained relatively high. This is indicative of underreporting, livestock theft incidents; closed-circuit television (CCTV) and surveillance measures; that have had an influence on the data. Practical recommendations are made for combating livestock theft, including improving reporting mechanisms; conducting targeted research on regional hotspots; implementing interventions during peak theft periods; fostering stakeholder collaboration; and increased investment in the training and capacity-building initiatives for law enforcement agencies. This article contributes to understanding the complexities of livestock theft in South Africa. It offers actionable recommendations for policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and agricultural stakeholders to address this pressing issue and protect the economic livelihoods of farming communities.

Moving beyond biology: the critical role of social and structural determinants in atopic dermatitis.

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a prevalent chronic inflammatory skin disease with a substantial global burden and negative impact on quality of life. While genetics and pathophysiology are key to understanding AD, emerging evidence indicates that social and structural determinants of health (SDOH and StDOH) strongly influence the condition's onset, severity, and outcomes. SDOH, such as economic stability, education quality and access, healthcare quality and access, neighborhood environment, and social/community context, shape individual risk and disease experience. StDOH, including government processes, economic policies, social/public policies, and cultural/societal values, further act as upstream forces that directly and indirectly influence AD outcomes. In this review, we synthesize current knowledge on the impacts of SDOH and StDOH on AD incidence, severity, and disparities. Embracing a biopsychosocial model is crucial to elucidate the etiology, epidemiology, and optimal management of AD. Future research should adopt a holistic approach, moving beyond a purely biological perspective to consider the intricate interplay of social and structural determinants in understanding and managing AD.

THE SIGNIFICANCE AND ROLE OF LIVESTOCK BREEDING AS PART OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN PELAGONIA REGION

Livestock breedeing is one of the most important economic sectors in our country, directly influencing the overall progress of the agricultural sector. Its continuous development significantly impacts economic stability, food supply, rural development, and societal well-being. In the research, the objectives are clearly defined to provide a comprehensive description and classification of the conditions, current status, and possibilities for the development of livestock production. The main goal of the research is to identify the components of the reproduction process in the agricultural and food industry and their influence on macroeconomic movements. Various scientific methods were used in the preparation of the thesis, including analytical, synthetic, inductive, deductive, descriptive, and statistical methods. The most relevant conclusions obtained through the analysis of the results from the "Questionnaire" encompass aspects such as identifying agriculture as a primary source of income for many farmers, particularly in crop farming and livestock husbandry. Additionally, challenges like a lack of workforce, delayed subsidy payments, and issues with water supply for livestock hydration are identified. The significance of a strategy to protect clean water is emphasized as a response to the water scarcity challenge. The future of the agricultural sector depends on factors such as product placement, subsidies, timely payment for finished products, and ensuring the workforce, highlighting them as key aspects for the sector's future development. The research provides significant data contributing to the improvement of the current state in livestock farming, both in the Pelagonian region and in our country.

Impacto macroeconómico de la dolarización en el Ecuador durante el período 2006-2023

The macroeconomic impact is crucial for determining the well-being of a country. Analyzing variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, investment, and foreign trade allows for an assessment of a nation's economic health and financial stability. This article aims to analyze the impact of dollarization in Ecuador between 2006 and 2023. Adopted in 2000 to stabilize the economy and attract foreign investment; dollarization presented monetary and fiscal policy challenges. Authors like Cachanosky and Alvarado highlight the challenges in fiscal control and the relationship between exports and external income. The study employs a quantitative methodology, with regression analysis and time series based on data from the Central Bank of Ecuador. The results show moderate GDP growth and gross investment, as well as fluctuations in liquidity and credit to the private sector, along with persistent inequality in income distribution. The conclusions indicate that while dollarization has contributed to stability, it has limited the country's monetary autonomy. Additionally, dependence on external factors, such as U.S. monetary policy, has affected Ecuador's economic stability. The importance of diversifying the economy, promoting policies that foster sustainable and equitable growth, and reducing vulnerability to external fluctuations is emphasized.

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Tourist Visits in Indonesia: GARCH Analysis

In this era of globalization, currency exchange rates are one of the crucial factors affecting a country's economy. The exchange rate of a country's currency plays an important role in economic stability and international trade, especially in the tourism sector. This study aims to conduct an in-depth analysis to identify patterns of rupiah exchange rate volatility using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, and then examine whether these patterns have a significant correlation with the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia. In analyzing the data, researchers conducted several classical assumption tests, namely the normality test and the heteroscedasticity test. The test results show that the data used, namely the rupiah exchange rate data and the number of foreign tourist visits, are not normally distributed and heteroscedastic. In this case, it resulted in researchers not use the Pearson correlation test so they used the Kendall-Tau correlation test and Granger Causality test which resulted in the two variables being correlated. Furthermore, GARCH modeling is carried out which provides forecasting on both data to increase in 2024. The results of this study are expected to provide a basis for consideration for stakeholders to determine policies, especially in the financial and tourism sectors.

Análisis de la dependencia petrolera en Ecuador periodo 2018-2022

Evidence of oil dependence in the Ecuadorian economy persists despite efforts to diversify the productive matrix. Obstacles in terms of investment, technology, and political and economic stability have hindered progress in this documentary direction and an analysis of secondary data. The present study aims to analyze oil dependence in Ecuador during the period 2018-2022. For this purpose, a documentary research methodology and an analysis of secondary data were used. The results indicate that, during this period, the Ecuadorian oil sector has faced a series of challenges that have limited its production and refining capacity. Factors such as operational problems, infrastructure limitations, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to a decline in crude oil production, which has had a negative effect on the country's revenues and its competitive position in the global market. In addition, this article highlights the need for Ecuador to implement comprehensive strategies to reduce its dependence on oil, diversify its sources of income, and promote more sustainable long-term economic development.

Agroterrorism: Assessing the Growing Threat to Global Food Security and Economic Stability

Agroterrorism, the deliberate introduction of harmful agents into agriculture to cause disease and economic damage, poses a growing threat to global food security and economic stability. Motivated by deep-seated conflicts and often perpetrated by both state and non-state actors, agroterrorism targets livestock, crops and water supplies, aiming to destabilize economies and social systems. Historical incidents, such as the mercury contamination of Jaffa oranges and cyanide-tainted grapes, underscore its severe impact. Recent concerns, intensified by advancements in biotechnology and increasing global trade, highlight the vulnerability of agriculture to such attacks. The potential economic damage from a single agroterrorism incident could reach billions of dollars, exacerbating food shortages and undermining public trust. Effective prevention and preparedness require multi-sectoral cooperation involving law enforcement, agricultural and scientific communities. Strategies include enhancing detection methods, developing biosecurity measures and improving international trade regulations. The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) and related organizations advocate for a comprehensive approach to bolster global resilience against agro-crime and agro-terrorism, emphasizing the need for robust preparedness and inter-agency collaboration to mitigate this evolving threat.

Opinion of Women on Possession of Land and Risk Handling Capacity

Abstract: This study shows that and ownership affects women's risk management abilities. This study was conducted in the two upazilas (Sub-districts) namely Delduar, and Nagorpur of Tangail district in Bangladesh. In this study, data were collected during the period of February 2024 to March 2024 from the studies areas. We found a favorable correlation between women's land ownership and risk management. Larger landholding women were more confident and competent in managing financial, environmental, and social hazards. This higher risk handling capability is due to land assets' financial stability, the ability to invest in risk-reducing technology or practices, and community bargaining power. This study shows that property ownership gives women a greater buffer against economic uncertainty and allows them to take proactive risk mitigation strategies. Data also shows that landowner women are more likely to have diverse income sources, minimizing their market susceptibility. They also use support networks and community risk management efforts more. The study concludes that land ownership improves women's risk management. Women acquire economic stability and risk management leverage by obtaining land holdings. This shows that land access regulations might boost women's resilience and risk management. Future study should examine how land ownership affects risk management and how to give disadvantaged women land access.

Exchange rate flexibilization and macroeconomic determinants: Evidence from MENA region

Many emerging economies have significantly changed their economic policies by adopting floating exchange rate regimes. This article aims to investigate the relationship between exchange rate variations and key macroeconomic indicators in the MENA region, focusing specifically on Egypt, Tunisia, and Turkey. The study employs regression analysis to explore how macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, trade balances, foreign exchange reserves, etc. influence exchange rate movements in these economies. By conducting a comprehensive regression model, we aim to provide insights into the complex dynamics of exchange rate fluctuations and their implications for economic stability and policymaking in the MENA region.

Navigating Financial Constraints: Understanding Causes, Effects, and Strategic Solutions across Individual, Corporate and Governmental Sectors

Limitations in financial resources were a widespread obstacle in the interdependent global economy, impacting people, firms, and governments. These limitations were evident in the limited availability of financial resources, high levels of debt, and constricted cash flow, often resulting from an intricate interaction of internal and external elements. This paper offered an extensive investigation of the causes, consequences, and strategic remedies for financial limitations in these three areas. On an individual level, financial constraints were often caused by stagnating salaries, excessive living expenses, and insufficient financial knowledge, resulting in heightened susceptibility to financial shocks. Corporations, especially small and medium-sized firms (SMEs), have financial limitations caused by restricted capital access, increased operating expenses, and market instability, which may impede development and prevent innovation. As a result of fiscal mismanagement, increasing public debt, and economic recessions, governments, particularly in emerging countries, have financial limitations that might hinder their capacity to fund vital services and infrastructure. Financial limitations had extensive consequences, affecting economic stability, growth, and general living standards. Individuals with financial constraints encountered a decline in their quality of life and heightened levels of stress, while firms may endure declining profitability and competitiveness. Governments may be compelled to enforce austerity policies, resulting in enduring socio-economic repercussions. To tackle these difficulties, it was crucial to use customised approaches such as enhancing financial literacy, optimising corporate financial management, and advancing fiscal consolidation and structural changes at the governmental level. The objective of this research was to provide practical insights for improving financial resilience and fostering sustainable economic growth by adopting a comprehensive strategy that took into account the interdependence of financial limitations across different sectors. Keywords: Financial constraints, Global economy, Financial resources, Debt levels, Cash flow.

Managing High Debt Levels: Strategies, Causes, and Impacts on Economic Stability

In recent years, the exponential growth of debt in many economic sectors, including people, enterprises, and governments, has emerged as a major worldwide issue, jeopardising economic stability. The high debt levels may be attributed to many factors, including stagnant earnings, increasing living expenditures, aggressive business development goals, and fiscal deficits. The ramifications of this buildup of debt are extensive, including serious financial hardship, reduced competitiveness, and decelerated economic development. This study analyses the causes and consequences of high levels of debt, highlighting the need for implementing efficient debt management techniques. Central strategies include improving financial literacy, advocating for responsible borrowing, adopting cautious financial management practices in firms, and attaining fiscal consolidation and structural changes at the governmental level. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the need for cutting-edge debt management strategies, such as the use of technology, to guarantee sustained economic strength and stability in the long run. This research emphasizes the crucial need to tackle excessive debt to avoid financial crises and maintain economic development in the presence of global economic difficulties. Keywords: Debt Accumulation, Economic Stability, High Debt Levels, Financial Hardship, Competitiveness.