Embargo Research Articles

Unraveling Incongruence: The EU Proposal in the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue

This paper explores the complexities surrounding the acceptance of the European Union (EU) Proposal in the ongoing Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. The incongruence between Belgrade and Brussels is shaped by several interrelated factors. Central to this discord is the premature transfer of authority from the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) to the EU. This transition was prompted by UNMIK's failure to safeguard Kosovo's non-Albanian population and the breakdown of status negotiations, culminating in Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence. Although the EU has facilitated technical agreements that have supported the region's trajectory toward European integration, it has also encountered significant challenges. Notably, the withdrawal of Kosovo Serbs from political, judicial, and law enforcement institutions, compounded by the destabilizing effects of the Ukraine conflict, has intensified the crisis. These dynamics have accelerated a reliance on informal agreements, which circumvent domestic legislative processes and are characterized by a lack of transparency. The EU Proposal seeks to expedite the normalization process but contains a contentious provision that implicitly demands Serbia's acceptance of Kosovo's independence—an issue perceived in Serbia as a transgression of its core national interests. While the proposal lacks formal legal bindingness, the EU wields considerable influence, applying pressure on Serbia through mechanisms such as economic sanctions. However, such measures risk exacerbating anti-EU sentiment within Serbia. The paper argues that the EU’s strategy, which emphasizes informal agreements and seeks to avoid overt confrontation, may yield eventual progress but also risks entrenching political tensions within Serbia and Kosovo. The long-term implications of this approach remain uncertain, posing potential challenges for the stability of the EU and the broader Western Balkans region.

Unleashing Innovation Under Sanctions: The Catalyst of National Culture

ABSTRACTThis article explores how national culture moderates the impact of economic sanctions on a targeted country's innovation performance, using a dynamic difference‐in‐difference approach. Our empirical analysis utilises a panel dataset spanning 213 nations from 2013 to 2019. We discover that economic sanctions generally have a detrimental effect on the innovation performance of targeted countries. However, not all types of sanctions have the same negative impact on innovation. Specifically, financial, arms, and travel sanctions exhibit this negative influence. Furthermore, we reveal that under the sanction circumstances, countries characterised by high power distance and high uncertainty avoidance cultures tend to experience a higher level of innovation performance. Our findings remain robust after conducting various tests. In our subsequent analyses, we focus on different types of sanctions and find that the favourable impact of power distance and uncertainty avoidance culture on the relationship between sanctions and innovation applies primarily to financial sanctions.

The causal effect of economic sanctions on political stability: A two‐stage difference‐in‐differences analysis

AbstractThis study employs the two‐stage difference‐in‐differences (2sDiD) estimator to investigate the causal effect of economic sanctions on political stability. It contributes to existing research by (1) re‐evaluating sanctions' impacts on political stability using newly introduced causal inference methods, and (2) distinguishing the effects of sanctions across various political regimes and economic globalisation levels. The article argues that economic sanctions create economic hardships for the target population, leading to public frustration toward their governments, which stimulates political mobilisation and thereby decreases the country's political stability. However, sanctions hurt democracies more than autocracies because autocratic regimes can suppress public dissent through repression and citizens face higher costs for opposition. Moreover, economic globalisation offers targets alternatives to sanctioned products and services, potentially weakening sanctions thus damaging political stability more in low‐globalised than in high‐globalised countries. Empirical findings from 9230 country‐year observations between 1949 and 2022 largely align with the theoretical predictions, showing that economic sanctions undermine the target's political stability, with these destabilising effects contingent upon its political regime and economic globalisation levels.

THE GEOPOLITICAL AWAKENING OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR

The article analyses the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the geopolitical transformation of the European Union (EU). It examines the key changes in the EU's security, energy and international relations strategy, as well as the development of its strategic autonomy and role in supporting Ukraine. The study is based on the analysis of scientific sources and political articles related to the EU's foreign policy and security mechanisms. A comparative analysis of the EU's decisions on sanctions, energy security and military assistance to Ukraine is used. Expert assessments of the geopolitical situation and economic consequences of the war are also taken into account. The article contributes to understanding the role of the Russian-Ukrainian war as a catalyst for the EU's political and strategic awakening. In particular, it highlights the development of the EU's strategic autonomy in response to its energy dependence on Russia and the growth of defence cooperation between member states. The author also explores how the war has contributed to the consolidation of European identity and the strengthening of the desire for global leadership in the face of current international challenges. The author notes that the Russian-Ukrainian war has accelerated changes in the EU's approach to foreign and security policy. The EU has strengthened its strategic autonomy, increased economic sanctions against Russia and mobilised resources to support Ukraine. At the same time, the war has shown the need to develop energy resources independent of external suppliers and to increase the EU's internal defence capabilities. Ukraine's integration into the European space has become an important strategic direction of the EU's policy. An important aspect has been the strengthening of European defence cooperation, which demonstrates the EU's desire for greater independence in security matters. Ukraine's integration into the European space is becoming one of the key directions of the EU's foreign policy, which may accelerate the process of Ukraine's accession to the Union in the future. The author also draws attention to the fact that the issue of strengthening the EU's defence capabilities affects the problem of the international security system, which today, as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, is undergoing the greatest transformations since the Second World War.

How does the use of cryptocurrency affect circular economy practices in manufacturing companies?

In nations facing international pressures, such as sanctions, leaders should attempt to utilize advanced technologies more effectively, while fostering the skills and intelligence of the human resources, and enhancing public confidence in the use of emerging technologies in Industry 5.0. In this article our goal is to investigate the effect of acceptance and use of cryptocurrencies on the circular economy. The theoretical contribution of this research is to enrich the literature related to the factors affecting the adoption of digital currencies and its impact on the circular economy. Also, due to the importance of technology awareness in Industry 5, its effect on the adoption of digital currencies was evaluated. For several decades, Iran has been exposed to political and economic sanctions by the United Nations Security Council, the US, and the European Union (EU). Given the importance of natural resources in Iran's economy, and the presence of barriers regarding financial transactions, all manufacturing companies working in Iran were selected as the statistical population of the current study. The findings showed that variables like the realized ease of use, the realized efficiency, trust, technological intelligence and social influence have been effective on the acceptance and use of cryptocurrencies. Also, use of cryptocurrencies in manufacturing companies has had effect on the circular economy activities. The other research results revealed that the factor of economic sanction in the studied society might have effect on the use of cryptocurrencies and consequently companies’ circular economy. The policy-makers active in the field of the environment, and also managers of manufacturing companies by creating an infrastructure for financial exchange based on digital currency can provide the needed ground for production in line with the environment and sustainable resource management.

Innovation’s false spring: U.S. export controls and Chinese patent quality

This paper evaluates the effect of U.S. export restrictions, enacted in 2018, on China’s patent production. An analysis of patent-level datasets indicates a significant surge in Chinese patent filings in sanctioned technological domains. This quantitative growth, however, is accompanied by a decrease in patent quality, evidenced by reduced citation counts and market worth. Specifically, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have witnessed a substantial rise in patent filings post-2018, while private firms exhibit a more modest increase. Despite the surge in patent quantity, the overall quality of patents—particularly those originating from SOEs—has deteriorated significantly. This study contributes to the body of research concerning the economic consequences of the U.S.-China trade dispute and offers original insights into the implications of trade sanctions on innovation quality.

The Impact of Russia – Ukraine War on Global Economy

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia contributed to a notable rise in global prices of food and crude oil petroleum. The surge in the global food price index following the invasion was fueled by supply chain disruptions. In general, the incursion resulted in a continuous increase in inflation in both belligerent and non-belligerent nations. The following study shows how economic sanctions and regional conflict lead to an international energy crisis. Despite mediating countries like Turkey, it had a disastrous impact not only on geopolitical stability but also on economic development within and outside of Europe. The study used to assess the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on global trade and business. This paper investigates the global economic growth and consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war over a four month period from December 2021 to March 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022.

Narrating Solidarity With Ukraine: European Parliament Debates on Energy Policy

The article aims to improve our understanding of the politics of energy policy in the EU in the context of the war in Ukraine. It shows how the energy policy debate is contextualised by the suffering of Ukraine and the country’s efforts to resist Russian aggression and full-scale war. An abductive qualitative content analysis of 10 European Parliament debates on economic sanctions against Russia between March 2014 and October 2022 is used to reconstruct four narratives of the EU’s transnational solidarity with Ukraine. The following solidarity narratives are compared in terms of underlying notions of solidarity, proposed policy solutions, and their temporal aspects: “solidarity based on the common enemy,” “solidarity as mutual sacrifice,” “solidarity based on shared independence,” and “solidarity based on our resilience.” We find that despite the prominence of the solidarity frame in all four narratives, there were latent relevant differences in the urgency of the proposed solutions. Moreover, the references to suffering in these narratives tend to contrast “their” and “our” suffering, rather than calling for help for Ukraine.

The impact of U.S. economic sanctions on corporate innovation and fraud

AbstractEconomic sanctions have increasingly become a pivotal tool in modern foreign policy, especially in the context of U.S. international strategy. Despite their growing significance, there is a notable lack of empirical research on how these sanctions affect corporate behavior. This study aims to explore the impact of U.S. economic sanctions on innovation and fraudulent activities within Iranian firms subjected to these measures. Utilizing a difference‐in‐differences approach, the findings reveal a weak and negative relationship between sanctions and innovation, while no significant link is found between sanctions and fraudulent activities. Notably, the study uncovers a substantial divergence in companies' responses to sanctions based on their innovation background. Companies with a strong innovation background experience a significant increase in innovation efforts and a corresponding decline in fraudulent behavior upon facing sanctions. In contrast, companies lacking an established innovation background exhibit a reduction in innovation and, in turn, an escalation in fraudulent practices in response to sanctions. These findings remain robust across various sensitivity analyses. This research contributes to the expanding body of empirical literature on sanction outcomes by highlighting the profound impact of innovation background on the responsible and ethical decisions made by sanctioned companies.

The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global Economic Stability and Political Security

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has emerged as a significant geopolitical tension, with far-reaching implications for global stability and security. This paper intends to study the impact of the war on the worlds and regional economic development and political stability, and achieve some findings that may trigger further policy considerations in mitigating challenges and issues imposed by the war. Through literature reviews and comparison analysis, the findings reveal economic, political, and security consequences of the conflict. The disruption of trade flows, economic sanctions, and uncertainty have impacted both Russia and Ukraine, as well as the wider region and the world. Energy security concerns and shifts in military alliances have added to the complexity of the conflict. The expansion of NATO and increased rivalries between Russia and Western countries have further heightened tensions. Based on the findings, the paper concludes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict poses a significant threat to global economic stability and political security. It emphasizes the need for a multilateral approach to address the conflict and promote peace and stability in the region. Ceasefire agreements, humanitarian assistance, and reconstruction efforts are crucial steps towards long-term peace and development. The paper highlights the importance of prioritizing diplomatic solutions over short-term gains from the conflict. In summary, this paper intends to explore the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global stability and security, with findings that underscore the need for international cooperation and concerted efforts to mitigate the consequences of the conflict and foster a peaceful resolution.

Energy Transition in the Middle East and North Africa Region: Regional Solutions for Climate Change Challenges Amid Economic Sanctions

As the world grapples with the urgent priority of transitioning to a net-zero future, there exists a shared need to make all efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly caused by burning fossil fuels. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region plays an important role because of its oil and natural gas output. Additionally, this region has experienced significant conflict and numerous wars. This article will focus on one of the many challenges that some key states in the MENA region, with a main focus on Iran, are facing in their energy transition. Several countries in the MENA region are or have recently been subject to some form of economic sanctions. Sanctions appear to have had a material impact on these countries’ abilities to fulfill their contributions to transitioning to a net-zero economy. Research suggests that the chief obstacles they face regarding that transition is the lack of access to the latest technologies, a dearth of financing, limited or often no direct investments in low carbon industry, diplomatic isolation, and the concomitant economic volatility caused by sanctions, which in sum, take away from the financial capacity of a target country to save and invest for the transition to net zero. Therefore, it is crucial to revisit sanctions laws and policies, ensuring that they do not hinder the global community from achieving its climate goals. This article proposes establishing a regional ‘climate savings account’ to serve as a strategic mechanism to balance geopolitical interests and environmental goals.

Harnessing network power: Weaponised interdependence in global tax policy

AbstractFor decades, global tax policy has grappled with the challenge of mobile capital, failing to harness the regulatory potential of network power. This oversight has allowed tax havens to flourish, and multinational corporations and wealthy elites to circumvent state authority, undermining national fiscal policies and democratic capacity to meet grand societal challenges, such as climate change and inequality. But recent regulatory innovations pave a different way forward. This article spotlights the dynamics of ‘weaponized interdependence’, suggesting a critical role for strategically targeting global corporate and financial networks in reinvigorating action against tax havens, tax avoidance and tax evasion. Identifying and exploiting network chokepoints – financial institutions, corporate subsidiaries and expert intermediaries – can empower states to reassert their sovereignty and counterbalance the structural advantages of global capital. This approach helps us understand how and why recent regulatory measures have effectively countered financial secrecy, profit shifting and sanctions evasion, repairing public finances and restoring democratic integrity. In an age where weaponised interdependence is predominantly linked to national security, this recasting of global tax policy highlights a progressive path for using network power to develop effective global economic frameworks, strengthen democratic capacity and address contemporary challenges.

The state and prospects of development of insurance for small and medium-sized businesses in Russia

In modern conditions caused by the instability of the national economy, the role of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in the country's economy is increasing many times. Insurance is a reliable tool for protecting entrepreneurs from risks and ensuring the sustainability of their business. The purpose of this article is to study the current problems and prospects for the development of SME insurance in the context of external economic sanctions and market volatility. The object of the study is the SME insurance system in Russia. Scientific work contributes to the theory of insurance, in particular, to substantiate the need for insurance in the development of entrepreneurship and its role for the country's economy. The results of the study can be used to develop measures of state support for SME insurance, as well as to improve insurance products aimed at entrepreneurs.

Sustainability of the real sector of the Russian economy: Economic security and sanctions realities

Aim. To investigate the essence of the real sector of the Russian economy and identify the features of its impact on achieving economic security under sanctions.Objectives. To determine the essence of the real sector of the economy and assess its contribution to the stability of the national economy under sanctions; to identify the stages of development of the real sector of the Russian economy; to form an approach to regulating the real sector in the context of achieving economic security.Methodology. The research uses methods of comparative, structural, functional, and historical (retrospective) analysis, as well as tools of systemic and institutional approaches.Results. The real sector of the economy includes the production of goods and services, its functioning is associated with the creation of new value. This distinguishes it from the virtual and financial sectors where real, tangible goods are not created and where, in fact, the product formed in the real sector is redistributed. In crisis conditions, the developed real sector serves as the basis for the functioning of the economy and the satisfaction of basic economic needs, its stability determines national economic security.Conclusions. In modern conditions, characterized by sanctions pressure on Russia from unfriendly countries, the real sector of the economy plays an important role in ensuring the stability of the country’s economy as a whole. Its dynamics largely determines protection against traditional and new (sanctions-related) threats and risks to economic security. At the same time, there is a need for government support and regulation of the development of the real sector, which is associated with many different difficulties. To increase the effectiveness of this regulation, a permanent search for a balance between the use of planned and market instruments is required, the development of a mixed system of economic regulation that combines the tools of market and planned approaches. This will make it possible for the state to flexibly and adaptively manage the process of ensuring national economic security.

Our Exploration of Countermeasures against the Abuse of Unilateral Sanctions by the United States

Currently, the international landscape is undergoing changes, with unilateralism on the rise. Of which, economic sanctions are the most common form. Due to the lack of effective specialized international rules in the current international rule system, unilateral sanctions are increasingly frequently used by individual countries. The abuse of unilateral sanctions has impacted the normal operation of international mechanisms. Unilateral sanctions were originally used in a country’s domestic law, but now some countries, such as the United States, expand their own laws’ extraterritorial application through the continuous expansion of connection points, thereby giving their sanctions against foreign entities a cloak of legitimacy, which goes against the principles of international law and the basic norms of international relations (Bai, 2018). From a legal perspective, the implementation of illegal unilateral sanctions is achieved through the improper interpretation and application of international treaty exception clauses. From international custom, unilateral sanctions beyond countermeasures refer to those imposed by states other than the injured state, who deliberately legalize countermeasures related to sanctions, which greatly contributes to the abuse of unilateral sanctions. In this context, China should accelerate the construction of its anti-sanctions legal system to effectively counter the threats and damages caused by unilateral sanctions and firmly safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests.

Financial Mobilisation for Economic Survival: The Rhodesian Insurance Industry During UDI, 1965–1979

ABSTRACT This paper examines the insurance industry during Rhodesia’s Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI, 1965–1979). It demonstrates how the sector was a vehicle for economic survival against sanctions imposed by the United Nations and Britain. It argues that the growth of the insurance industry was key to the financial mobilisation needed in other undercapitalised sectors. The paper builds on earlier scholarship to demonstrate how Rhodesia mobilised its domestic resources. It explains how the Insurance Fund was mobilised to facilitate the development of the Export Credit Insurance Scheme to facilitate international trade. It contend that the insurance industry constituted one of the most important arms of Rhodesia’s financial sector during the UDI period. The paper suggests that without the remodelling of the financial and insurance sector it would have been impossible for Rhodesia to survive economic sanctions. UDI precipitated a transition away from orthodox financial systems to insurance, because sanctions propelled the growth of the industry. This article joins an existing broader historiographical debate that argues sanctions are inefficient in changing states’ behaviour. It draws on primary sources from the National Archives of Zimbabwe and provides a qualitative study on how Rhodesia survived economic sanctions using the insurance industry.

The Infrastructural Power of the Cayman Islands and the US State Power: A Financial Networks Centrality Approach

ABSTRACT This paper explores the symbiotic relationship between the Cayman Islands and the centrality of the United States (US) in global financial networks, using their connection as a test case for a broader theory of how infrastructural power of states is achieved through transnational and networked strategies. The legal and financial infrastructure of the Cayman Islands is extensively used by US financial institutions. This infrastructure supports the development of a significantly US-centric fund industry, facilitating substantial investments into US capital markets. Additionally, it serves as a global conduit, channelling funds from regions such as Asia and Latin America into US markets, streamlining the process by which foreign investors acquire US securities, and supporting the development of complex USD-denominated financial products. This dynamic enhances the depth, liquidity, and complexity of US capital markets, thereby reinforcing US centrality in global financial networks and bolstering its geopolitical power through financial diplomacy, economic sanctions, regulatory influence, and control over critical financial infrastructure. The relationship underscores the infrastructural power of the Cayman Islands, whose financial and legal framework is essential for sustaining and amplifying US centrality. Consequently, this paper aims to integrate the transnational perspective on infrastructural power within the International Political Economy (IPE) and Geopolitics literature, demonstrating how the Cayman Islands function as a multifaceted networked site that strengthens, projects, and sustains US state power on a global scale.

The Lessons from Sanctions on Iran and Their Impacts on the Development of Civil Aviation Understanding and Iranian Airlines

After the Islamic Revolution, Iran lived through many hard times not only because of its economic and financial resources such as oil and petroleum but also because of its historical, social, supremacy and leadership of some other Islamic countries and communities. Essentially, it has tried to defend its position for many years without sacrificing its Idiosyncratic Islamic governance structure within the world context or other Islamic countries, for these reasons, it has witnessed a lot of economic and financial sanctions or bans. Although Iran has a lot of highly qualified academicians and a workforce in the science of aviation, its civil aviation management structure and related activities, such as airline management, are very far from the average of the world depending on these financial and economic sanctions and bans by international orders. This situation is subjected to this research as a gap. This paper will analyse the civil aviation and air carrier industry of Iran under the impacts of these economic and financial bans and sanctions regarding four dimensions: Maintenance, Training and licensing, corporal development, and relationships with manufacturers. Essentially, at the beginning of the new age, in terms of international politics and conflicts in every continent of the world, new sanctions and bans are on the trouble agenda of world civil aviation agencies and institutions because of their highly political structure, and these bans and sanctions carry generally economic and financial identities, although they have international policy claims. There are a lot of possibilities on the desks of the civil aviation authorities for the burdens of these sanctions and bans and their sustainability impacts on civil aviation. Moving from the situation of Iran, the correct courses and necessary economic and financial policies will be suggested in this new world context and understanding.

New approaches to the implementation of supervisory powers in capital markets and organized commodity markets

The article analyzes new mechanisms and measures of influence on supervisory entities in capital markets and organized commodity markets. A general positive assessment is given to the innovations related to the introduction of more flexible tools for adjusting the state of stock and organized commodity markets, as well as the expansion of the powers of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC), while simultaneously strengthening the legal guarantees of the rights of supervised entities. Attention is paid to changes regarding the inclusion of individuals as subjects of responsibility under this law, clearer delineation of the scope of supervised entities, and significant expansion of the rights of supervised entities by utilizing the best practices of regulating procedural relations between the supervisory body and the supervised entity. The article also explores the deepening regulation of communicative connections between these entities and the procedures for implementing supervisory measures. Attention is given to preventive measures for violations, such as «recommendations by inspectors» and «requests for the adoption of measures.» The article analyzes new forms of implementing supervisory powers and measures of influence on supervised entities, as well as new mechanisms for their implementation that were not previously known in domestic practice. The legal significance of «public warnings» is highlighted, and a legal evaluation of «settlement agreements regarding the consequences of violating sectoral legislation» is provided as an alternative to administrative enforcement measures. According to the authors, concluding such an agreement cannot be considered as a discretionary power of the NSSMC but rather a right of the supervised entity. Conclusions are made regarding the compliance of the introduction of «controlled services» with the IOSCO principle. Taking into account the guarantees of the rights of supervised entities, as stipulated in Article 35 of the Law of Ukraine «On Amendments to the Law of Ukraine ‘On State Regulation of Capital Markets and Organized Commodity Markets’ and Some Other Legislative Acts of Ukraine on Improving State Regulation and Supervision in Capital Markets and Organized Commodity Markets» of February 22, 2024, No. 3585-IX (hereinafter referred to as Law No. 3585-IX). The article defines the functional purpose of legislative restrictions on financial sanctions against supervised entities - legal entities, which, in the authors’ view, aim to prevent their economic destruction and the disruption of economic ties in the respective market. In conclusion, the changes introduced as a result of the adoption of Law No. 3585-IX are expected to positively impact the relationship between the regulator and market participants. The innovations in the practice of legal regulation of relations between the regulator and supervised entities deserve to be extended to other similar areas of state control and supervision.

The State and Trends of Crime in the Territory of the Member States of the Commonwealth of Independent States in 2023

Introduction. The article provides an analysis of the state of crime in the member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States in 2023. The analysis is based on statistical data on the state of crime in the Commonwealth over the past five years.After Russia launched a special military operation in 2022 to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine, a situation is developing in the world in which the countries of the collective West are trying to damage our country through economic sanctions, as well as actually waging a proxy war against Russia. Unfriendly countries, led by the United States, are trying to use the member states of the Commonwealth as a tool in the fight against Russia, through unequal cooperation to introduce differences in the CIS, and use information security technologies for their own purposes.To determine the degree of influence of current world events on the criminal situation in the post-Soviet space, an analysis of the state of crime in the CIS countries was carried out.The given statistical data on crime in the Commonwealth countries demonstrate the dynamics of the criminal situation in the countries under consideration, depending primarily on internal criminogenic factors. Such factors exist and develop under the influence of criminal elements and the existing criminal environment.The analysis of the dynamics of the criminal situation for 2019-2023 was aimed at determining the trends of its development in the light of the impact of external and internal processes that have arisen in recent years, to identify the causes affecting the dynamics of certain types of crime and to make a forecast of the possible development of the criminal situation for the next 1-2 years.To predict the dynamics of the criminal situation in the CIS countries, the expotential smoothing method was used, which is illustrated by the graphs given in the article.Materials and methods. The theoretical basis of the research is based on the conclusions and achievements of criminology, scientific research on crime as a social phenomenon. The reasons and events influencing the dynamics of crime are taken into account. General scientific and private scientific research methods (synthesis, deduction, analysis, generalization, observation, etc.) were used in the work. The methodological basis of the study was a systematic approach, comparative and problem-based approaches.The results of the study. As a result of the analysis of the criminal situation at the transport facilities of the Russian Federation, it was found that, starting in 2020, new factors influenced the quantitative indicators of crime in transport. The introduction of restrictive measures related to the spread of coronavirus infection, their subsequent cancellation, the beginning of the geopolitical crisis in the world, provoked by the imposition of sanctions by Western countries against Russia, restrictions on international communications. closure of airports, borders, etc. they affected the directions of preventive activities of the internal affairs bodies in transport. The conclusions and forecasts made in the article determine the trends in the development of the criminal situation in transport in 2023 and allow us to determine the most important vectors of the direction of preventive activities of internal affairs bodies.Discussion and conclusion. The article identifies and substantiates the priority areas of activity of the internal affairs bodies of Russia in transport for the most effective organization of preventive activities and combating crime.