Economic Projections Research Articles

The cost of CO2 transport and storage in global integrated assessment modeling

This paper assesses the range of CO2 transport and storage costs and evaluates their impact on economy-wide modeling results of decarbonization pathways. Much analytic work has been dedicated to evaluating the cost and performance of various CO2 capture technologies, but less attention has been paid to evaluating the cost of CO2 transport and storage. Many integrated assessment modeling studies assume a combined cost for CO2 transport and storage that is uniform in all regions, commonly estimated at $10/tCO2. Realistically, the cost of CO2 transport and storage is not fixed at $10/tCO2 and varies across geographic, geologic, and institutional settings. We surveyed the literature to identify key sources of variability in transport and storage costs and developed a method to quantify and incorporate these elements into a cost range. We find that onshore pipeline transport and storage costs vary from $4 to 45/tCO2 depending on key sources of variability including transport distance, scale (i.e. quantity of CO2 transported and stored), monitoring assumptions, reservoir geology, and transport cost variability such as pipeline capital costs. Using the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, we examined the impact of variability in transport and storage costs by applying a range of uniform costs in all regions in a future where global temperature rise is limited to 2°C. We then developed three modeling cases where transport and storage costs vary regionally. In these latter cases, global cumulative CO2 captured and stored through 2100 ranges from 290 to 377 Gt CO2, compared to 425 Gt CO2 when costs are assumed to be uniformly $10/t CO2 in all regions. We conclude that the widely used assumption of $10/tCO2 for the transport and storage of CO2 is reasonable in some regions, but not in others. Moreover, CCS deployment is more sensitive to transport and storage costs in some regions than others, particularly China. More analysis is needed to further quantify CO2 transport and storage costs at a regional level.

Evaluating the forecasting power of an open-economy DSGE model when estimated in a data-Rich environment

This paper examines the inferences and forecasting benefits that can be made when one incorporates a large quantity of economic time series into international structural macroeconomic models. I estimate a close variation of Adolfson et al. (2007a, 2008) small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in a data-rich environment and evaluate its predictive performance of the Canadian macroeconomy. The data set I use in the paper includes Canadian, American, Asian and European macro-financial data. I compare the forecasting performance of the DSGE model estimated in a data-rich environment (DSGE-DFM) to the forecasts generated by the DSGE model estimated in its traditional fashion and forecasts generated by other reduced form forecasting models. I find that an open-economy DSGE model estimated in a data-rich environment significantly out performs its regularly estimated DSGE counterpart. Further, DSGE-DFM forecasts that incorporate real-time data are similar or better to the Bank of Canada’s Staff Economic Projections for GDP, consumption, investment, and trade statistics. In addition, the DSGE-DFM model of this paper is useful in forecasting both the real and nominal exchange rate in the short and medium-term.

FO-MD setup analysis for acid mine drainage treatment in Chile: An experimental-theoretical economic assessment compared with FO-RO and single RO

Contamination of water bodies by acid mine drainage (AMD) from mining industries is affecting global freshwater availability, especially in arid zones like northern Chile. A real AMD from a contaminated Chilean river was used in this study. This work aimed to evaluate an economic projection of a Forward Osmosis–Membrane Distillation (FO-MD) process versus a Forward Osmosis–Reverse Osmosis (FO-RO) for an AMD treatment. FO-MD continuous assays (12 h) were performed using AMD solution as feed and NaCl as draw solution, achieving an initial flux of 25 LMH with FO and a stable flux around 10 LMH for MD. Different FO-MD economic models were developed using steam and thermal-fluid as heat-source. The cost assessment showed that thermal-fluid FO-MD has a payback period of 1.8 years with a water cost of 3.36 $/m3 while FO-RO's investment return was one year with a water cost of 1.47 $/m3. A Monte Carlo modeling results identified the membrane cost and the thermal energy expense as the elements with the highest impact on the economic indicators. Nevertheless, the economic assessment revealed that if waste-heat is available, the FO-MD operation cost would be lower than FO-RO's (1.29 $/m3), even with today's high FO/MD membrane cost.

Techno-Economic Assessment of Calcium Looping for Thermochemical Energy Storage with CO2 Capture

The cyclic carbonation-calcination of CaCO3 in fluidized bed reactors not only offers a possibility for CO2 capture but can at the same time be implemented for thermochemical energy storage (TCES), a feature which will play an important role in a future that has an increasing share of non-dispatchable variable electricity generation (e.g., from wind and solar power). This paper provides a techno-economic assessment of an industrial-scale calcium looping (CaL) process with simultaneous TCES and CO2 capture. The process is assumed to make profit by selling dispatchable electricity and by providing CO2 capture services to a certain nearby emitter (i.e., transport and storage of CO2 are not accounted). Thus, the process is connected to two other facilities located nearby: a renewable non-dispatchable energy source that charges the storage and a plant from which the CO2 in its flue gas flow is captured while discharging the storage and producing dispatchable electricity. The process, which offers the possibility of long-term storage at ambient temperature without any significant energy loss, is herein sized for a given daily energy input under certain boundary conditions, which mandate that the charging section runs steadily for one 12-h period per day and that the discharging section can provide a steady output during 24 h per day. Intercoupled mass and energy balances of the process are computed for the different process elements, followed by the sizing of the main process equipment, after which the economics of the process are computed through cost functions widely used and validated in literature. The economic viability of the process is assessed through the breakeven electricity price (BESP), payback period (PBP), and as cost per ton of CO2 captured. The cost of the renewable energy is excluded from the study, although its potential impact on the process costs if included in the system is assessed. The sensitivities of the computed costs to the main process and economic parameters are also assessed. The results show that for the most realistic economic projections, the BESP ranges from 141 to −20 $/MWh for different plant sizes and a lifetime of 20 years. When the same process is assessed as a carbon capture facility, it yields a cost that ranges from 45 to −27 $/tCO2-captured. The cost of investment in the fluidized bed reactors accounts for most of the computed capital expenses, while an increase in the degree of conversion in the carbonator is identified as a technical goal of major importance for reducing the global cost.

Impact of Internets of Things (IOT) in retail sector

The Internet of Things is an increasingly important scientific, social and economic topic. Combined with the internet connectedness and the robust data analysis capabilities promising to change the way we operate, live, and play is consumer products, durable goods, automobiles and vehicles, manufacturing and service components, sensors, and other everyday items. IoT's Internet and economic impact projections are remarkable. The Internet of Things (IoT) promotes growth and new opportunities in the computer domain by bringing every protest, shopper, and activity. In the meantime, pushing organizations, by summarizing each delegate, implement comparable changes within their companies. Furthermore, manage administration. The expansion and choice of standard gauges of associated gadgets combined with improved, cheaper innovation steps only extend IoT-competent skills across companies.

A needs-based methodology to project physicians and nurses to 2030: the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

BackgroundThe Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as part of its 2030 National Transformation Program, set a goal of transforming the healthcare sector to increase access to, and improve the quality and efficiency of, health services. To assist with the workforce planning component, we projected the needed number of physicians and nurses into 2030. We developed a new needs-based methodology since previous global benchmarks of health worker concentration may not apply to the KSA.MethodsWe constructed an epidemiologic “needs-based” model that takes into account the health needs of the KSA population, cost-effective treatment service delivery models, and worker productivity. This model relied heavily on up-to-date epidemiologic and workforce surveys in the KSA. We used demographic population projections to estimate the number of nurses and physicians needed to provide this core set of services into 2030. We also assessed several alternative scenarios and policy decisions related to scaling, task-shifting, and enhanced public health campaigns.ResultsWhen projected to 2030, the baseline needs-based estimate is approximately 75,000 workers (5788 physicians and 69,399 nurses). This workforce equates to 2.05 physicians and nurses per 1000 population. Alternative models based on different scenarios and policy decisions indicate that the actual needs for physicians and nurses may range from 1.64 to 3.05 per 1000 population in 2030.ConclusionsBased on our projections, the KSA will not face a needs-based health worker shortage in 2030. However, alternative model projections raise important policy and planning issues regarding various strategies the KSA may pursue in improving quality and efficiency of the existing workforce. More broadly, where country-level data are available, our needs-based strategy can serve as a useful step-by-step workforce planning tool to complement more economic demand-based workforce projections.

Communicating Monetary Policy Rules

Despite the ubiquity of inflation targeting, central banks communicate their frameworks in a variety of ways. No central bank explicitly expresses their conduct via a policy rule, which contrasts with models of policy. Central banks often connect theory with their practice by publishing inflation forecasts that can, in principle, implicitly convey their reaction function. We return to this central idea to show how a central bank can achieve the gains of a rule-based policy without publicly stating a specific rule. The approach requires central banks to specify an inflation target, inflation tolerance bands, and provide economic projections. When inflation moves outside the band, inflation forecasts provide a time frame over which inflation will return to within the band. We show how this communication replicates and provides the same information as a rule-based policy. In addition, the communication strategy produces a natural benchmark for assessing central bank performance.

The economics of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) deployment in a 1.5 °C or 2 °C world

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation are key negative emission technologies suggested in many studies under 2 °C or 1.5 °C scenarios. However, these large-scale land-based approaches have raised concerns about their economic impacts, particularly their impact on food prices, as well as their environmental impacts. Here we focus on quantifying the potential scale of BECCS and its impact on the economy, taking into account technology and economic considerations, but excluding sustainability and political aspects. To do so, we represent all major components of BECCS technology in the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model. We find that BECCS could make a substantial contribution to emissions reductions in the second half of the century under 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization goals, with its deployment driven by revenues from carbon dioxide permits. Results show that global economic costs and the carbon prices needed to hit the stabilization targets are substantially lower with the technology available, and BECCS acts as a true backstop technology at carbon prices around $240 per tonne of carbon dioxide. If driven by economics alone, BECCS deployment increases the use of productive land for bioenergy production, causing substantial land use changes. However, the projected impact on commodity prices is quite limited at the global scale, with global commodity price indices increasing by less than 5% on average. The effect is larger at the regional scale (up to 15% in selected regions), though significantly lower than previous estimates. While BECCS deployment is likely to be constrained for environmental and/or political reasons, this study shows that the large-scale deployment of BECCS is not detrimental to agricultural commodity prices and could reduce the costs of meeting stabilization targets. Still, it is crucial that policies consider carbon dioxide removal as a complement to drastic carbon dioxide emissions reductions, while establishing a credible accounting system and sustainable limits on BECCS.

The Many Costs of Measles Outbreaks and Undervaccination: Why We Need to Invest in Public Health.

In 2018 and 2019, the United States weathered a resurgence of measles, with >1600 cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Most of these cases were associated with large outbreaks in New York and a smaller outbreak in Washington.1 For the 2018–2019 school year, kindergarten coverage with two doses of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine was 94.7% nationwide, 97.2% in New York, and 90.8% in Washington.2 These recent outbreaks confirmed modeling studies revealing that localized pockets of undervaccination and higher vaccine exemption rates plus exposure to travel create fertile conditions for measles spread.3,4 In previous measles studies, the significant cost of public health response activities needed to control these preventable outbreaks have been quantified.5,6 In this issue of Pediatrics , Pike et al7 expand on previous outbreak assessments to present a comprehensive cost evaluation of the 2019 measles outbreak in Clark County, Washington. These authors include direct medical costs; economic consequences of lost productivity due to illness, quarantine, and caregiving; and public health response costs. The 2019 outbreak comprised … Address correspondence to Jessica R. Cataldi, MD, MSCS, Section of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, Anschutz Medical Campus, University of Colorado, 13123 E 16th Ave, Box 055, Aurora, CO 80045. E-mail: jessica.cataldi{at}cuanschutz.edu

The Cost of CO2 Transport and Storage in Global Integrated Assessment Modeling

This paper assesses the range of CO2 transport and storage costs and evaluates their impact on economy-wide modelling results of decarbonization pathways. Much analytic work has been dedicated to evaluating the cost and performance of various CO2 capture technologies, but less attention has been paid to evaluating the cost of CO2 transport and storage. Many integrated assessment modeling studies assume a combined cost for CO2 transport and storage that is uniform in all regions, commonly estimated at $10/tCO2. Realistically, the cost of CO2 transport and storage is not fixed at $10/tCO2 and varies across geographic, geologic, and institutional settings. We surveyed the literature to identify key sources of variability in transport and storage costs and developed a method to quantify and incorporate these elements into a cost range. We find that onshore pipeline transport and storage costs vary from $4 to 45/tCO2 depending on key sources of variability including transport distance, scale (i.e. quantity of CO2 transported and stored), monitoring assumptions, reservoir geology, and transport cost variability such as pipeline capital costs. Using the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, we examined the impact of variability in transport and storage costs by applying a range of uniform costs in all regions in a future where global temperature rise is limited to 2°C. We then developed three modeling cases where transport and storage costs vary regionally. In these latter cases, global cumulative CO2 captured and stored through 2100 ranges from 290 to 377 Gt CO2, compared to 425 Gt CO2 when costs are assumed to be uniformly $10/t CO2 in all regions. We conclude that the widely used assumption of $10/tCO2 for the transport and storage of CO2 is reasonable in some regions, but not in others. Moreover, CCS deployment is more sensitive to transport and storage costs in some regions than others, particularly China. More analysis is needed to further quantify CO2 transport and storage costs at a regional level.

County-level estimates of population and economic scenarios under the shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China

Contribution from socio-economic development to climate change cannot be ignored. In order to make a more reasonable comprehensive assessment of the future climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) based on the background of climate change and the possible future socio-economic conditions, which describes the adaptation and mitigation challenges of climate change. Based on different SSP scenarios, combined with China's current population policy and the actual social and economic development in Inner Mongolia, this paper adopts PDE model and C-D model to simulate population and economic changes of various counties in Inner Mongolia from 2010 to 2050. It is founded that population and GDP varies from different counties significantly, and shows the patterns of high in east and low in west, high in south and low in north. The spatial distribution of GDP is positively related with the population. The total population increases first and then decreases from 2015 to 2050 in Inner Mongolia. By the ends of 2050, the population reaches 23.32 million (−9.46%), 24.14 million (−2.30%), 24.72 million (+0.05%), 22.37 million (−9.46%), 23.49 million (−4.93%) under SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, SSP5 scenarios. The largest gap of population is 2.35 million between SSP3 and SSP4. The GDP grows constantly from 2010 to 2050 in Inner Mongolia, but the growth rate is slowing down. By the ends of 2050, GDP reaches 5.09 trillion (+4.75 times), 5.22 trillion (+4.90 times), 4.41 trillion (+3.98 times), 4.98 trillion (+4.62 times), 5.87 trillion (+5.63 times). Therein, the biggest gap of GDP is 1.5 trillion between SSP4 and SSP5. The results provide technical solution for population and economic projection under SSPs at small area and subnational level, and provides scientific basis for the formulation of climate change policies in order to formulate measures to deal with climate change risks.

Impact of the coronavirus disease 2019-related global recession on the financing of the global HIV response.

Impact of the coronavirus disease 2019-related global recession on the financing of the global HIV response.

Did the Federal Reserve Anchor Inflation Expectations Too Low?

In 2012, the Federal Reserve adopted a 2 percent target for inflation to firmly anchor longer-term inflation expectations. Since then, inflation has averaged about 1.4 percent. Modern theories suggest that inflation should eventually gravitate toward measures of longer-run inflation expectations. The tendency for inflation to reside below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target over much of the past decade raises questions of whether longer-run inflation expectations are anchored—and, if so, whether they are anchored below 2 percent. Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith argue that the Federal Reserve’s communication of a numerical objective for inflation better anchored longer-term inflation expectations; however, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections for longer-run inflation from 2009–11 may have anchored them below 2 percent. The authors present evidence that the 2009 addition of longer-run inflation to the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), together with the eventual adoption of a longer-run 2 percent inflation objective in 2012, made investors’ inflation expectations more stable. At the same time, SEP projections for longer-run inflation from 2009 to 2011 generally resided below 2 percent, which may have led inflation expectations to anchor below 2 percent.

Long-term projections of economic growth in the 47 prefectures of Japan: An application of Japan shared socioeconomic pathways

Assessing climate change impacts on local communities is an urgent task for national and subnational governments. The impact assessment requires socioeconomic scenarios, including a long-term outlook for demographic and economic indices. In Japan, the National Institute for Environmental Studies developed the Japan Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (JPNSSPs) and presented regional population scenarios corresponding to five different storylines. However, there exists no quantitative information about changes in local economies under the population scenarios. This study examines the economic activities in Japan's 47 prefectures using statistical models and calculates changes in the major economic indices (e.g., production, capital stock, and labor population) until 2100. The economic projection is based on ten socioeconomic scenarios generated from the JPNSSP population scenarios and original productivity scenarios. The economic projection results clearly show that Japan's population aging and decline have catastrophic impacts on national and subnational economies. Even in the most optimistic scenario, assuming a massive influx of immigrants and fast productivity growth, the GDP growth rate becomes negative in the 2090s. In the most pessimistic scenario, the GDP growth rate becomes negative in 2028 and continues to decline. As a result, Japan's GDP decreases to the level of the 1970s by 2100. The improvement of productivity cannot offset the GDP shrink caused by demographic changes. Furthermore, the population aging and decline accelerate the wealth concentration in urban areas. The Theil index, calculated using the economic projection results, shows increasing trends in all the scenarios. Tokyo's presence in Japan's economy will continue to increase throughout this century. Meanwhile, Kanagawa and Saitama, which belong to the top five prefectures in terms of economic production, may lose their positions. The Tohoku region, already suffering from population decline, will face severe economic stagnation. Our findings suggest that the depressing future is inevitable unless Japan overcomes the population aging and decline.

Modeling Adherence Interventions Among Youth with HIV in the United States: Clinical and Economic Projections

The Adolescent Medicine Trials Network for HIV/AIDS Interventions is evaluating treatment adherence interventions (AI) to improve virologic suppression (VS) among youth with HIV (YWH). Using a microsimulation model, we compared two strategies: standard-of-care (SOC) and a hypothetical 12-month AI that increased cohort-level VS in YWH in care by an absolute ten percentage points and cost $100/month/person. Projected outcomes included primary HIV transmissions, deaths and life-expectancy, lifetime HIV-related costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). Compared to SOC, AI would reduce HIV transmissions by 15% and deaths by 12% at 12 months. AI would improve discounted life expectancy/person by 8 months at an added lifetime cost/person of $5,300, resulting in an ICER of $7,900/QALY. AI would be cost-effective at $2,000/month/person or with efficacies as low as a 1 percentage point increase in VS. YWH-targeted adherence interventions with even modest efficacy could improve life expectancy, prevent onward HIV transmissions, and be cost-effective.

Assessment of the Impact of COVID-19 on Economy Based on the “Economic Cross” Model

The article assesses the impact of the global pandemic COVID-19 and its events on the global information space using the “economic cross” model. Quantitative and qualitative economic results of the pandemic impact on economy both in the global and at the national Russian level are considered. The information and economic nature of the impact of the global pandemic on the development of global society is proven. An economic interpretation of the reaction of the global information space and national governments in the early 2020 and subsequent events, including self-isolation and expansion of digital forms of interaction in the information space at all levels of social activity, are proposed. The structure of the points of no return in the development of the global information space and its economic and social projection are investigated and temporary changes are identified, the preservation of which is unlikely after the end of the pandemic. An assessment of the development of the global information space is carried out taking into account pre-existing trends in the medium term and possible deviations in its development are investigated by updating the COVID-19 problem. On the basis of studying the cycles forming the “economic cross” of corononomics, forecasts of the development of the Russian economic system for the medium term are proposed.

Forecasting Baden‐Württemberg's GDP growth: MIDAS regressions versus dynamic mixed‐frequency factor models

AbstractGermany's economic composition is heterogenous across regions, which makes regional economic projections based on German gross domestic product (GDP) growth unreliable. In this paper, we develop forecasting models for Baden‐Württemberg's economic growth, a regional economy that is dominated by small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises with a strong focus on foreign trade. For this purpose, we evaluate the backcasting and nowcasting performance of mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions with forecast combinations against an approximate dynamic mixed‐frequency factor model. Considering a wide range of regional, national, and global predictors, we find that our high‐dimensional models outperform benchmark time series models. Surprisingly, we also find that combined forecasts based on simple single‐predictor MIDAS regressions are able to outperform forecasts from more sophisticated dynamic factor models.

Non-hazardous industrial waste in the United States: 100 Million tonnes of recoverable resources

Despite the large volume of non-hazardous industrial waste (NHIW) being generated globally, systematic NHIW reuse policies are lagging, largely owing to piecemeal understanding of generation volumes, locations, chemical constituents, and future trends. Herein, we demonstrate how to estimate the mineral and energy flows embedded in the 200-300 million tonnes of NHIW in the United States using information from process engineering and economic projections. We estimate that the minerals contained in NHIW are on the order of 100 million tonnes and with electricity potential lectricity at 200 billion kWh annually from 1990 to 2016. Both are expected to increase by roughly 50% from 2017 to 2050. The electricity potential and bulk mineral contents (e.g., CaO and SiO2) are modest compared to the total level of consumption of these resources (<3%), but there are county-level hotspots along the west coast with opporunities possibly large enough to yield significant material benefits at the local scale. Two lower-volume minerals, phosphorus and titanium, are noteworthy from a material substitution standpoint. They are estimated at 0.5-2.0 million tonnes in NHIW annually, which is 10-20% of current consumption and up to 50-80% in hotspot states. Although there are difficulties in cross-national generalization, we anticipate that the workflow steps themselves would be transferrable to other countries to be able to yield the chemical, locational and temporal information needed to inform the design of region-specific NHIW reuse programs and the development of NHIW valorization technologies.

Cleveland City: Policy and Budget Reallocation Analysis

The City of Cleveland in Ohio has endured suffering from detrimental budgeting and policy issues. The city’s monetary forecasts utilize internal recorded information, National and State economic indicators, and cost and income projections to appraise the city’s future monetary condition, including choices for controlling costs and expanding income (City of Cleveland, 2021). The purpose of this research paper is to examine the top five low-income and high-income areas in Cleveland. These low-income areas include Youngstown (Poverty rate of 36.2), East Cleveland (Poverty rate of 38.9), Warren (Poverty rate of 35.6), Fostoria (Poverty rate of 31.1), and Cambridge (Poverty rate of 33.2) (Exner, 2020). The high-income areas include Kamm's Corner, Riverside, Tremont, Old Brooklyn, and Jefferson (Kolmar, 2020). This project will discuss the background of Cleveland, Ohio, its budget allocation in previous years, the methods in which budget and allocation are chosen, and the contrast of methods to other cities in the US. A random digit dialing (RDD) survey will be distributed amongst residents in Cleveland, Ohio. The data will be processed in software including JASP and RStudio. Furthermore, the team will be specifically working with Cleveland City Council member Honorable Jasmine Santana.

A method to analyze the sectoral impact of Fiscal support for COVID-19 affected economies: The case of Oceania

In this paper, we apply the method of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling in economics to ascertain how fiscal support measures such as wage subsidies, small business loans, and finance guarantee schemes have impacted at an economy-wide and sectoral level for 8 COVID-19 affected economies in Oceania. We model our scenarios based on IMF World economic outlook projections, combined with the fiscal stimulus packages offered to counter this global health pandemic's recessionary effect. Our study confirms that the adverse impact of COVID-19 on output is cushioned through a large fiscal stimulus package wherever offered. This package would still be inadequate to avoid unemployment and job losses in tourism and education services in Oceania, with continued support essential for their survival in 2021.•The approach entails steps (1) to (3), as outlined in the paper.•Future researchers will find this method useful in evaluating the adverse impact of not only COVID-19 but any other external shocks to the economy, either directly or indirectly, that involves fiscal support mechanisms.