Economic Projections Research Articles

Economic development reloaded: the AI revolution in developing nations

This paper explores how Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to reshape economic development in developing countries. It examines AI's potential to enhance productivity, optimize resource allocation, and improve access to critical services like healthcare and education. Despite these opportunities, challenges such as technological infrastructure gaps and job displacement are significant. The paper emphasizes the need for tailored policy frameworks to harness AI's benefits while mitigating risks of widening inequalities or AI-poverty traps. By analyzing current economic trends and projections, the paper aims to provide insights into navigating AI adoption in developing economies, promoting sustainable growth and inclusive development in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

Impacts of accelerating agricultural R&D transfer on global food security

ABSTRACT Postponing the adoption of genome editing (GE) is costly, with lengthy regulatory processes contributing to postponement. Accelerating agricultural research and development (R&D) transfer is important for stimulating sustainable agricultural transitions and enhancing global food security. Using the MAGNET model, we incorporate dynamic R&D accumulation and compare economic projections in scenarios with accelerated R&D transfer. We calculate the cost of delay (COD) from postponing GE adoption. The results show that accelerating R&D transfer in high-income countries impacts economic performance, welfare, and food affordability globally; the annuity of COD ranges from losses of -$1.1 billion (Brazil) to gains of $18.5 billion (Europe). A 3-year acceleration of R&D transfer in all countries benefits middle and low-income countries the most (e.g. China, India, other Asian countries, and Sub-Saharan African countries), with the annuity of COD ranging from -$4.8 billion (Brazil) to $83.9 billion (China). Therefore, streamlining the GE regulatory framework is essential for enhancing food security and global welfare.

Analyze of The Effects of Possible Climate Change Scenarios for Biomass and Grain Yields of Sunflower and Winter Wheat with AquaCrop Model in The Thrace Region of Türkiye

Prediction of crop yield and biomass in agricultural production is crucial for both food safety and national economic projections. This study aimed to determine the relationship between the effects of climate change and biomass and grain yield of two crops (winter wheat and sunflower) at two locations, Kirklareli (KRK), Edirne-Orhaniye (EOR), with different soil textures, in the Thrace region. The scenarios (n=S1, S2,…,S65) of sensitivity analysis established by considering the expected trend of climate change were evaluated in terms of biomass and grain yield for sunflower and winter wheat crops with the AquaCrop model. The model predicted the highest losses of grain yield and biomass, when the air temperature was increased by 5 °C and the precipitation was decreased by 50% during the growing seasons of both crops (in the scenario S42). In the scenarios where only temperature was increased, grain and biomass yield values of sunflower was decreased, while those of winter wheat was increased. The combined effects of increased global solar radiation and decreased temperature had a negative effect on wheat production at EOR. For both sunflower and wheat, the most negative impacts on yield and biomass production were observed with the combined scenarios of various temperature increases and precipitation decreases during each growing season at each location. According to the simulation results of the defined single and combined scenarios in both spatial areas, while the grain and biomass yields of the summer planted sunflower plant were negative linear relations every scenario, non-linear relations were determined in the yields of the winter-wheat plant. Finally, with the defined sensitivity scenarios, the correlation coefficients between biomass and grain yield of sunflower and winter wheat under similar climate but different soil types in two locations were found to be R2= 0.88 and 0.87 for KRK and R2 = 0.56, and 0.79, for EOR, respectively.

Anticipating prosperity: a systemic analysis of long-term economic trajectories

PurposeThis study introduces an innovative approach to long-term economic forecasting by integrating anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis methodologies. Focussing on emerging economies, with Vietnam as a case study, we explore potential economic trajectories to 2050.Design/methodology/approachThe research employs a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative economic projections with qualitative scenario building and analysis.FindingsOur findings reveal four distinct future scenarios, ranging from low growth to transformative change. The preferred scenario, characterized by adaptive change, projects a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $30,684 by 2050, with significant reductions in agricultural labour and improvements in human development indicators.Originality/valueThis study contributes to theoretical and practical domains by demonstrating the value of integrated foresight methodologies in economic planning. It offers policymakers a comprehensive framework for navigating complex, long-term economic challenges and opportunities. This research underscores the importance of adaptive governance and systemic thinking in achieving sustainable, inclusive economic growth in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Development of an Optimization Software for Bioremediation of Hydrocarbon-Contaminated Soils mechanisms

A sophisticated software solution designed to enhance bioremediation processes in hydrocarbon-contaminated environments. This Advanced Bioremediation Optimization Software combines complex algorithms, real-time sensor data integration, and a user-friendly interface to deliver customized solutions for environmental restoration projects. The software utilizes predictive modeling to forecast remediation outcomes, optimizes treatment strategies based on ongoing data analysis, evaluates microbial communities through metagenomic sequencing data, and generates evidence-based recommendations to improve bioremediation efficiency. This tool represents a significant advancement in environmental restoration technology, offering practitioners a means to enhance the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of bioremediation projects. It also provides detailed economic projections to support informed decision-making by stakeholders, making it a valuable asset in the field of environmental remediation.

Asymmetries in Federal Reserve Objectives

Abstract Abstract This paper uses evidence from the Federal Open Market Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections to show that US monetary policymakers have objectives over unemployment and inflation outcomes that are not well-approximated through a conventional quadratic loss function. Rather, policymakers derive material costs (benefits) from overshooting (undershooting) their long-run inflation and unemployment goals. The trade-off between the resultant downward tilts in unemployment and inflation played a key role in shaping the evolution of monetary policy choices since the Great Recession.

The impartial spectator and the pursuit of interest in commercial society: A dual-text reading of Adam Smith for contemporary business and management

This article encourages a dual reading of Adam Smith's Theory of Moral Sentiments (TMS) and Wealth of Nations (WoN). The combined messages are important for contemporary business and management. One of the most important teachings from Adam Smith is that he makes us aware of the importance of an equilibrium between our own interests and those of individuals whom we deal and interact with in our economic life. When this is achieved with the help of the impartial spectator, in a well governed society, where there is simultaneous respect from individuals and the law for the natural flow of the economy, it is possible to achieve our own interests and those of our counterparts, and most important, we can project benefits, which may be unintended, to the society as a whole. Through this Smithian lens, we can see that business and management have a concern not only with economic projection, but also with the plurality of economic and social pursuits.

Empirical economic analysis shows cost-effective continuous manufacturing of cultivated chicken using animal-free medium.

Cellular agriculture aims to meet the growing demand for animal products. However, current production technologies result in low yields, leading to economic projections that prohibit cultivated meat scalability. Here we use tangential flow filtration for continuous manufacturing of cultivated meat to produce biomass of up to 130 × 106 cells per ml, corresponding to yields of 43% w/v and multiple harvests for over 20 days. Continuous manufacturing was carried out in an animal-component-free culture medium for US$0.63 l-1 that supports the long-term, high density culture of chicken cells. Using this empirical data, we conducted a techno-economic analysis for a theoretical production facility of 50,000 l, showing that the cost of cultivated chicken can drop to within the range of organic chicken at US$6.2 lb-1 by using perfusion technology. Whereas other variables would also affect actual market prices, continuous manufacturing can offer cost reductions for scaling up cultivated meat production.

Post-COVID-19 health inequalities: Estimates of the potential loss in the evolution of the health-related SDGs indicators.

This study delves into the global evolution of 43 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) indicators, spanning 7 major health themes across 185 countries to evaluate the potential progress loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Both the cross-country and temporal variability of the dataset are employed to estimate an empirical model based on an extended version of the Preston curve, which links well-being to income levels and other key socioeconomic health determinants. The approach reveals significant global evolution trends operating in each SDG indicator assessed. We extrapolate the model yearly between 2020 and 2030 using the IMF's pre-COVID-19 economic growth projections to show how each country in the dataset are expected to evolve in these health topics throughout the decade, assuming no other external shocks. The results of this baseline scenario are contrasted with a post-COVID-19 scenario, where most of the pandemic costs were already known. The study reveals that economic growth losses are, on average, estimated as 42% and 28% for low- and lower middle-income countries, and of 15% and 7% in high- and upper middle-income countries, respectively, according to the IMF's projections. These disproportional figures are shown to exacerbate global health inequalities revealed by the curves. The expected progress loss in infectious diseases in low-income countries, for instance, is an average of 34%, against a mean of 6% in high-income countries. The theme of Infectious diseases is followed by injuries and violence; maternal and reproductive health; health systems coverage; and neonatal and infant health as those with worse performance. Low-income countries can expect an average progress loss of 16% across all health indicators assessed, whereas in high-income countries the estimated loss is as low as 3%. The disparity across countries is even more pronounced, with cases where the estimated progress loss is as high as nine times worse than the average loss of 8%. Conversely, countries with greater fiscal capacity are likely to fare much better under the circumstances, despite their worse death count, in many cases. Overall, these findings support the critical importance of integrating the fight against inequalities into the global development agendas.

Why Have Long-term Treasury Yields Fallen Since the 1980s? Expected Short Rates and Term Premiums in (Quasi-) Real Time

Treasury yields have fallen since the 1980s. Standard decompositions of Treasury yields into expected short-term interest rates and term premiums suggest term premiums account for much of the decline. In an alternative real-time decomposition, term premiums have fluctuated in a stable range, while long-run expected short-term interest rates have fallen. For example, a real-time decomposition of the 10-yr. Treasury yield shows term premiums essentially equal in late 2013 and 2023, while the long-run value of expected short-term interest rates is estimated to have fallen in a manner similar to the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections and estimates from research on long-run neutral interest rates. These results suggest standard decompositions may overstate the role of term premiums in fluctuations of the yield curve.

Analisis Kelayakan Finansial Pada Usaha Ayam Geprek Di Kota Batam

Batam City offers attractive investment opportunities with optimistic economic growth projections of up to 7.08% in 2024, driven by key sectors such as industry, construction, trade and tourism, supported by infrastructure and government pro-business policies. Changes in people's lifestyles, including the demand for culinary variety, have created opportunities for fast food businesses, especially the popular fried chicken. Culinary tourism in SP Batam attracts tourists. Financial analysis shows that investment in the Ayam Geprek Sambal Lesung Paradisa MSME is feasible and profitable, with an internal rate of return of 9.5%, a 7 month Payback Period, and a multi-product Break Even Point, indicating an attractive business opportunity for entrepreneurs

The Effects of Natural Disaster on Financial Markets: The Empirical Analysis of 2023 Earthquakes in Türkiye

Purpose: The aim of the study is to investigate the effects of the February 6 earthquakes on financial markets Design/Methodology: BIST100 index, BIST sustainability index and BIST 100 electricity index were analyzed by the cross quantilogram method.. Findings: As a result of the analysis; According to the findings, the highest negative correlation values are seen in the period after the earthquake date. While the correlation relations between the sustainability and electricity indices included in the study and the BIST100 index were negative shortly before the earthquake, they followed a fluctuating course and maintained a negative effect since the earthquake date. In both indices, the dates when the negative effects are most visible coincide with the post-earthquake period. This situation reveals that both indices were negatively affected by the earthquake. Limitations: The fact that the February 6 earthquakes are still new and their consequences have not yet fully emerged necessitates the study to be conducted with more comprehensive data in the future. Originality/Value: It is thought that the study will make a significant contribution to the literature in terms of seeing short-term results and determining economic projections accordingly. Due to the devastating earthquakes that have occurred in recent years, the economic effects of natural events have become very important for Turkey. Therefore, it is inevitable to discuss the consequences of these effects and what needs to be done in the light of these consequences.

Biological and economic feasibility of cultivating the mangrove cockle Anadara tuberculosa (Sowerby, 1833) in a shrimp farm reservoir with estuarine influence in Santa Elena, Ecuador

The extraction of Anadara tuberculosa, a commercially valuable species in the tropical Eastern Pacific mangroves, presents significant ecological risks. To mitigate these risks, captive production of A. tuberculosa is crucial. This study examines the somatic conditions of laboratory-produced A. tuberculosa spat and their cultivation on a pilot scale in a canal-reservoir of a shrimp farm. Spat measuring 6.2 ± 0.9 mm were placed in baskets and cultured in suspension at a density of 776.6 ± 26.0 cockles (0.54 cockle per square centimeter). Environmental variables at the culture site were monitored. After 24 months of culture, the cockles reached a size of 44.7 ± 0.6 mm with a survival rate of 65.0 ± 0.6%. These production results were extrapolated to evaluate the economic viability of production in a shrimp farm canal-reservoir with estuarine influence. The proposed economic model yielded 325,000 market-ready Anadara tuberculosa mangrove cockles (in five culture cycles) with an estimated net present value (NPV) of $22,914.00. The modified internal rate of return (MIRR) reached 15.20 percent, and the cost-benefit ratio was $1.96. Economic projections indicate that the initial capital investment could be recovered within five years and one month (payback). This research provides evidence of the biological feasibility, including somatic growth, survival rates, and the relationship with environmental variables at the site, as well as the economic feasibility of cultivating A. tuberculosa in a canal of a shrimp farm with estuarine influence. The findings offer valuable insights for scaling up aquaculture production and initiating restoration processes for this species.

EU Sanctions Against Russia - The Impact on the Russian and EU Markets

The nature of sanctions imposed on Russia, especially by the European Union, goes beyond mere punitive measures and takes on a multifaceted character with global repercussions. These sanctions are designed not only to exert economic pressure on Russia but also to serve as a diplomatic tool to influence behavior and promote adherence to international norms. The global impact of these sanctions extends beyond the direct consequences felt within Russia and the EU, touching various aspects of the world economy and geopolitical landscape. This paper analyses the impact of sanctions against Russia adopted following Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine and its consequences in the EU and Russian economy. The author will primarily delve into shifts in import and export dynamics among these nations within the specified timeframe, with a particular emphasis on the oil and gas market. Within this framework, the focus will be directed towards discerning anticipated economic projections and their implications.

Strategic Design of a Business Model for Providing Services over the 5G Network in Peru

The advance of the fifth generation (5G) network globally has completely changed business models, giving rise to the birth of new companies with their business models and the adaptation of existing companies. This change is greatest in developing countries where 5G network deployment is scarce and key to their economy. This article aims to analyze the strategic design of a business model to provide 5G network equipment installation services in Peru. In addition, the article includes the design of a business structure for the implementation of the business model, as well as the evaluation of economic and financial projections to determine the economic viability of its implementation. The methodological approach covers business management applied to business design, examining several key areas such as business management, human resource management, finance, accounting, marketing, and operations management. The study of the business model is based on business management theory, using accounting and finance concepts to analyze the most significant financial indicators. The information and data used to analyze the aspects of the business model are extracted from the databases of Peruvian institutions. Our results reveal that implementing a business model for providing 5G network equipment installation services in Peru is economically viable since the economic and financial projections show that a Net Present Value of 146,931.02 monetary units is obtained. Also, the results justify the design of the business structure based on the value proposition of experience and specialization focused on 5G networks in Peru.

Post‐COVID inflation dynamics: Higher for longer

AbstractWe implement a novel nonlinear structural model featuring an empirically successful frequency‐dependent and asymmetric Phillips curve; unemployment frequency components interact with three components of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—core goods, housing, and core services ex‐housing—and a variable capturing supply shocks. Forecast tests verify accuracy in its unemployment–inflation trade‐offs, crucial for monetary policy. Using this model, we assess the plausibility of the December 2022 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). By 2025Q4, the SEP projects 2.1% inflation; however, conditional on the SEP unemployment path, we project 2.9%. A fairly deep recession delivers the SEP inflation path, but a simple welfare analysis rejects this outcome.

Understanding recession response by Twitter users: A text analysis approach

Towards the end of 2022, economists around the world predicted that the symptoms of global economic recession were imminent and would be inevitable in 2023. Using sentiment analysis and thematic analysis, this research aims to grasp a better perspective on how the topic of recession is viewed and understood by Twitter users. The researcher crawled tweets by using Python programming language. According to the cleansed and filtered data that the researcher accessed, it is found that 46% of the data has neutral sentiment, 44% has negative sentiment, and 5% each has mixed and positive sentiment. It is also found that the topic of economic projection has become one of the most popular topics on Twitter, followed by the topics of cryptocurrency, politics, energy, and employment. In addition, the research concludes that the topic of cryptocurrency became the only topic that tended to have positive sentiment. Hence, in general the data is dominated by neutral and negative sentiment, and it implied that the topic of global economic recession is perceived negatively by Twitter users.

Mitigating emissions in the global steel industry: Representing CCS and hydrogen technologies in integrated assessment modeling

We conduct a techno-economic assessment of two low-emissions steel production technologies and evaluate their deployment in emissions mitigation scenarios utilizing the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. Specifically, we assess direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace with carbon capture and storage (DRI-EAF with CCS) and H2-based direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace (H2 DRI-EAF) which utilizes low carbon hydrogen to reduce CO2 emissions. Our techno-economic analysis based on the current state of technologies found that DRI-EAF with CCS increased costs ∼7% relative to the conventional steel technology. H2 DRI-EAF increased costs by ∼18% when utilizing Blue hydrogen and ∼79% when using Green hydrogen. The exact pathways for hydrogen production in different world regions, including the extent of CCS and hydrogen deployment in steelmaking are highly speculative at this point. In illustrative scenarios using EPPA, we find that, using base cost assumptions, switching from BF-BOF to DRI-EAF or scrap EAF can provide significant emissions mitigation within steelmaking. With further reductions in the cost of advanced steelmaking, we find a greater role for DRI-EAF with CCS, whereas reductions in both the cost of advanced steelmaking and hydrogen production lead to a greater role for H2 DRI-EAF. Our findings can be used to help decision-makers assess various decarbonization options and design economically efficient pathways to reduce emissions in the steel industry. Our cost evaluation can also be used to inform other energy-economic and integrated assessment models designed to provide insights about future decarbonization pathways.

Short-and Long-run Influence of COVID-19 on Jordan's Economy

Abstract Global economic growth projections have been revised downward in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. This adjustment mirrors a substantial global economic decline brought about by COVID-19-induced lockdowns, which greatly restricted labor force movement and disrupted international trade, with Jordan aligning itself with this downward trend. This report provides a comprehensive sector-specific assessment of the COVID-19 impacts on the Jordanian economy, drawing on Jordanian official reports, various news sources, and expert opinions. Jordan's battle with COVID-19 extends beyond public health, encompassing significant economic challenges, with the ongoing economic struggle potentially proving more formidable than the health crisis. Therefore, Jordan's primary focus should be on establishing a precisely targeted social safety net, given the pandemic's highlighting of widespread informality in employment across the Middle East and North Africa region, as it navigates its path to economic recovery. JEL classification numbers: I, I15. Keywords: COVID-19, Economic influence, Jordan, Microeconomics, Macroeconomics

Hawkish or Dovish Fed? Estimating a Time-Varying Reaction Function of the Federal Open Market Committee's Median Participant

This paper estimates a time-varying reaction function of the median participant of the Federal Open Market Committee, using a Taylor rule with time-varying coefficients estimated on one- to three-year ahead median forecasts of the federal funds rate, inflation, and the unemployment rate from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). We estimate the model with Bayesian methods, incorporating the effective lower bound on the median federal funds rate projections. The results indicate that the monetary policy rule has become significantly more persistent after the pandemic than in the years prior, and it currently reacts strongly to inflation, at more than twice the responsiveness estimated prior to 2020. Our proposed policy rule produces accurate predictions of the median federal funds rate projections in real time for given SEP forecasts of inflation and the unemployment rate, suggesting that the median participant's reaction function is well-represented by our assumed Taylor rule with time-varying coefficients. Our results show that the median participant's reaction function becomes less persistent and less responsive to inflation yet more responsive to the output gap in anticipation of tighter monetary policy conditions. We also find that labor market activity, inflation, and macroeconomic uncertainty correlate significantly with the evolution of the time-varying coefficients of the rule. Finally, we show that in times of a less persistent policy rule or more responsiveness to inflation, markets perceive nominal bonds as better macroeconomic hedges.