Economic Projections Research Articles

Фармакоэкономические аспекты комплексной терапии, включающей лечебное питание, у детей с муковисцидозом

Objective. To estimate the annual cost of antibiotic therapy for cystic fibrosis exacerbations in children depending on nutritional status and the comparative cost of enteral nutrition products of two manufacturing companies. Patients and methods. This study included 50 male and female patients with cystic fibrosis aged 7 to 17 years (mean age 13 ± 4 years). All patients were divided into two age groups. Group 1 consisted of 26 children aged 7 to 10 years and group 2 consisted of 24 children aged 11 to 17 years. Each age group was subdivided depending on the body mass index (BMI): subgroup 1: ≤10th percentile, subgroup 2: 50th percentile. According to the 2019 registry, we calculated the number of courses and doses of antibiotic therapy per year, the annual cost of antibiotic therapy in each subgroup and per patient, and the cost of nutritional status correction with supplementary feeding. Results. In groups of patients with different nutritional status, it was shown that the average annual cost of antibiotic therapy in children aged 7–10 years with BMI ≥50th percentile was 600 thousand rubles (11%) lower than in children with BMI ≤10th percentile. In the age group of 11–17 years, cost savings amounted to 2.9 million rubles (58%). When calculating the cost of enteral nutrition, it was found that the use of domestic products to correct the nutritional status is economically more feasible. Cost savings ranged between 484,080 and 608,880 rubles (25–30%) in each age group. Conclusion. The decline in nutritional status should be corrected as early as possible. Maintaining optimal rates of physical development may lead to significant cost savings. The results obtained may be used for future economic assessments and cost projections for the treatment of patients with pathology accompanied by poor nutritional status. Key words: cystic fibrosis, children, enteral nutrition, protein-energy malnutrition, malnutrition

Agricultural activities and economic projections of Aymara communities in the Lluta river basin and Precordillera of the Arica and Parinacota Region

The Region of Arica and Parinacota is characterized as an agricultural region located in Atacama Desert at the extreme north of Chile. Its agriculture has allow developing the economy of pre- and post-Hispanic communities, which have been settled since colonial times at different locations in the region. This article is focused on how Aymara communities of Lluta Valley and Precordillera of Arica and Parinacota Region have been included as part of Chilean population, particularly, from social and economic point of view. Furthermore, a characterization of agronomic aspects of the main towns of this zone, and commercialization of agricultural and livestock is included. It must be considered that the evolution of this region would have an important impact in the safeguard on endemic flora and fauna so that it is imperative to protect the genetic heritage of local species and to promote new technologies which allow the production of commercial products from Arica and Parinacota Region.

The FOMC's New Individual Economic Projections and Macroeconomic Theories

This paper examines whether the individual economic projections made by the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policymakers are consistent with macroeconomic theories: Okun’s law, the Phillips curve, and the Taylor rule. By analyzing the FOMC’s individual economic projections between 2007 and 2014, I find that they are consistent with Okun’s law, revealing a significantly negative relationship between unemployment and output growth projections. On the other hand, the relationship between inflation and unemployment projections associated with the Phillips curve is much weaker and more dispersed. The results on the FOMC’s reaction function, the Taylor rule, are mixed: The response of the projections of the federal funds rate against the inflation gap projections—the deviation of inflation projections from the target—is significantly positive, whereas the response against the corresponding output gap projections varies depending on the specification.

A New Airport in Mexico: Feasibility of Socialist Style Infrastructure in a Private Capital Economy

This paper is based on the positive correlation between projects of infrastructure developed by the government, and the indicators of general well-being of populations in adjoining areas where such constructive changes have been effected. To study the multifactorial effects of the development of a welfare state, we have studied the economic projections associated with the construction of AIFA (Felipe Angeles International Airport), a new airport in Mexico, which was undertaken completely as a government-funded project and developed as a national infrastructure project by the military establishment. Information on projected investments and downstream investments and local employment from the Secretary of Agrarian Development and Tourism (SEDATU) and the Secretary of Public Finances (Forbes) for the new airport AIFA are compared and analyzed with similar projects in other privately developed infrastructure projects and their calculated impact in order to suggest how well-being (achieved through such indices as employment and the generation of micro-enterprises) would pan out for the economy in the State of Mexico, where the new public-funded projects are envisioned. Projections based on available information suggest that the construction of a public infrastructure module can be achieved under economic constraints, focusing on lower spending from the public budget; however, there is a lack of information and transparent policy decisions to indicate growth for entrepreneurs in the local economy, and neither any projected information on opportunities of further private or public investments associated with the airport. A socialist-style public investment project, engineered by the state military, may need more transparency and engagement on behalf of entrepreneurs.

Short-term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global and Turkish economy

Background/aimThe Covid-19 pandemic is one of those rare events that affects everyone on earth and changes our lives. The pandemic, which has killed over four million people worldwide, is putting unprecedented pressure on governments to maintain essential health and social services, as well as keep their economies running, even as the virus threatens people’s daily life on every level. Thus, the purpose of this study is to discuss the short-term economic impact of the pandemic by assessing its costs using official economic data for both the world and Turkey. Furthermore, this research highlights possible economic, social, and political pathways for a postpandemic new world.Materials and methodsThis study is a review article that overviews and tracks the economic development of the Covid-19 pandemic from the start, synthesizes and compares current data of reliable institutions, and provides an overall assessment.Results The pandemic has certainly caused short-term and long-term damage to economies and living standards for many people. Although there are estimates on what this damage is, the exact degree of the damage is still unknown. However, it seems that the recovery will be gradual, long-lasting, and unpredictable due to the unprecedented uncertainty characteristic of the pandemic.ConclusionEarly economic growth projections show that there will be no ordinary recovery for the world economy since short-term countries’ recovery paths are different. It is likely to remain uneven and depend on the effectiveness of the vaccination process, fiscal policy support, public health management, and hard-hit sectors’ growth size in economies. Due to the uncertainty and lack of confidence, governments should ensure an equal and sustainable economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic by conducting flexible monetary and fiscal policies. However, without structural reforms, economies can not boost either in the short-term and long-term.

Dynamic Effect of Operational Regulation on the Mesophilic BioMethanation of Grape Marc.

Wine production annually generates an estimated 11 million metric tonnes of grape marc (GM) worldwide. The diversion of this organic waste away from landfill and towards its use in the generation of renewable energy has been investigated. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of operational parameters relating to the treatment regime and inoculum source in the extraction of methane from GM under unmixed anaerobic conditions at 35 °C. The study entailed the recirculation of a previously acclimated sludge (120 days) as downstream inoculum, an increased loading volume (1.3 kg) and a low substrate-to-inoculum ratio (10:3 SIR). The results showed that an incorporation of accessible operational controls can effectively enhance cumulative methane yield (0.145 m3 CH4 kg−1 VS), corresponding to higher amounts of digestible organics converted. The calculated average volumetric methane productivity equalled 0.8802 L CH4 LWork−1 d−1 over 33.6 days whilst moderate pollutant removal (43.50% COD removal efficiency) was achieved. Molecular analyses identified Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes phyla as core organisms for hydrolytic and fermentative stages in trophic relationships with terminal electron acceptors from the methane-producing Methanosarcina genus. Economic projections established that the cost-effective operational enhancements were sustainable for valorisation from grape marc by existing wineries and distilleries.

Sustainable dietetic models in Europe: the Mediterranean diet as case study

More than five years since the global commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, 690 million people lack sufficient food and economic projections suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic may add an additional 83 to 132 million people to the ranks of the undernourished. Meanwhile, 1.3 billion tons of food are wasted globally each year, utilizing 38% of total energy consumption in the global food system. Child and adult overweight and obesity are increasing in almost all countries, and on a global level the cost of a healthy diet is 60% higher than the cost of a nutrient adequate diet, and almost 5 times the cost of an energy sufficient diet. The Mediterranean Diet is one of the recognized models of healthy and sustainable diets. This model has proven to promote longevity and well-being, not only by considering specific food items and dietary patterns, but also taking into account the culture and the history of populations living in that region, as well as social aspects such as tradition and conviviality. Moreover, it is strongly tied to a gastronomic background that links health with enjoyment. This may be extremely important for the implementation of feasible programs for the prevention of chronic non communicable diseases. In fact, long lasting lifestyle changes are difficult to achieve and, although health motivations may lead to satisfactory dietary compliance in the short term, pleasure remains an important determinant of any dietary change that is intended to last. While keeping traditional dietary habits at European level, the main principles of the Mediterranean diet could be taken into account to identify key features that ensure both health benefits and sustainable impact on environment. Assessing the sustainability of these products can be an effective operational approach for preserving and promoting a Mediterranean-type dietary pattern in the European region.

Five years after Treat All implementation: Botswana's HIV response and future directions in the era of COVID-19.

BackgroundAs the relentless coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread across Africa, Botswana could face challenges maintaining the pathway towards control of its HIV epidemic.ObjectiveUtilising the Spectrum GOALS module (GOALS-2021), the 5-year outcomes from the implementation of the Treat All strategy were analysed and compared with the original 2016 Investment Case (2016-IC) projections. Future impact of adopting the new Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Global AIDS Strategy (2021–2026) targets and macroeconomic analysis estimating how the financial constraints from the COVID-19 pandemic could impact the available resources for Botswana’s National HIV Response through 2030 were also considered.MethodProgrammatic costs, population demographics, prevention and treatment outputs were determined. Previous 2016-IC data were uploaded for comparison, and inputs for the GOALS, AIM, DemProj, Resource Needs and Family Planning modules were derived from published reports, strategic plans, programmatic data and expert opinion. The economic projections were recalibrated with consideration of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.ResultsDecreases in HIV infections, incidence and mortality rates were achieved. Increases in laboratory costs were offset by estimated decreases in the population of people living with HIV (PLWH). Moving forward, young women and others at high risk must be targeted in HIV prevention efforts, as Botswana transitions from a generalised to a more concentrated epidemic.ConclusionThe Treat All strategy contributed positively to decreases in new HIV infections, mortality and costs. If significant improvements in differentiated service delivery, increases in human resources and HIV prevention can be realised, Botswana could become one of the first countries with a previously high-burdened generalised HIV epidemic to gain epidemic control, despite the demands of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Socio-economic characterization of the traditional cacao agroforestry system (Theobroma cacao L.)

Cacao farmers face many challenges to increase yield while adjusting their farms to future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties. Improving the management practices of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) cultivation systems requires knowledge of their baseline and the determining factors affecting them. The main goal of this research was to characterize traditional cacao agroforestry systems of smallholder farmers in the Municipality of Tumaco, Nariño, Colombia. Using a semi-structured survey and a sample of 218 farmers, the socioeconomic characteristics of the cacao production system were analyzed. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) grouped and discriminated the cacao growers. The PCA formed five components representing 50.86% of the total variability, while the ACM grouped them into five factors explaining 29.82% of the variability. The cacao cultivation is a traditional activity of smallholder farmers with very low yields. The age of the farmers is over 50 years old, with despicable levels of education; there was no evidence of generational change. The study shows that the traditional cacao production system is not an attractive activity for young people or investors given its marginality and low economic projection. Timely strategies and subsequent early actions will be imperative to face the main environmental, socio-economic, and productive challenges, which will allow the cacao activity to be a source of well-being for cacao growers and the environment in the region.

How realistic is the China–Pakistan–Iran economic corridor?

The economic and political influence of China in the Asian region is growing amidst global geopolitical challenges. Economic corridors such as the new Silk Road have been identified as enablers of strategic growth and geo-economic power development in a context of significant political instability. Beijing's strategic approach and the importance of Pakistan and Iran to its aspiration to realise China's dream through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are examined in this comparative study. The rising role of China in the region and its engagement with Iran and Pakistan and the part that these two countries can play need careful attention. Political and economic joint interests have brought together these three countries with significant links to China's economic corridor and energy projections. But the future of the partnership is very fragile as it is characterised by historical hostilities between Iran and Pakistan that can act as a major impendiment to China's ability to progress. In addition, economic and trade figures show an unbalanced relationship that clearly favours Chinese interests. The BRI and the Chinese plans for those territories still remain blurry as any long-term crisis that characterises fragile and complex international alliances.

Forecasting FOMC Forecasts

(Hendry 1980, p. 403) The three golden rules of econometrics are “test, test, and test”. The current paper applies that approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992–2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves. Monetary policy is forward-looking, and as part of the FOMC’s effort toward transparency, the FOMC publishes its (forward-looking) economic projections. The overall views on the economy of the FOMC participants–as characterized by the median of their projections for inflation, unemployment, and the Fed’s policy rate–are themselves predictable by information publicly available at the time of the FOMC’s meeting. Their projections also communicate systematic behavior on the part of the FOMC’s participants.

Electric vehicles as distribution grid batteries: a reality check

The current transition towards electric mobility implies that a significant portion of electricity is drawn by and stored in the electric vehicle’s (EV) batteries. Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies can potentially give distribution system operators access to such energy to provide ancillary services, while remunerating the vehicle owners for their availability to participate. Although the benefits of stabilization and grid efficiency improvements are clear, is it appealing and lucrative for the vehicle owners to participate in such services? In this work, we answer this question by modelling the V2G system and performing economic projections of the possible benefits for EV owners. In particular, we present a novel way of parametrizing the electric vehicle driving profile and the V2G energy transfer to compute battery degradation costs. A profit model is developed to evaluate the profit earned by the vehicle owners offering their batteries. The profit is estimated on the basis of the owner’s inclination to buy and sell energy from the grid based on the electricity price. Using data of the German electricity market, we estimate a profit of 662 €/EV/Year for a vehicle with 100 kWh capacity, 95% battery round trip efficiency and driving 52 km per day. The remuneration is meaningful and can have the potential to encourage EV owners to participate in V2G service.

Effects of the pandemic crisis on entrepreneurship and sustainable development

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an economic crisis in advanced economies greater than the 2008 economic crisis, as the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts indicate. Entrepreneurship activity is an important factor to be considered to reduce this negative. The objective of this paper is to analyze the factors that favor entrepreneurship in the COVID-19 pandemic situation and explore the relationship between entrepreneurship and sustainable development. Monetary, fiscal, competitiveness, and business expectations are factors to consider. To achieve this objective, we reviewed the specialized literature and proposed an economic model to verify the relationships between the relevant variables. The estimation of this model uses the Partial Least Squares (PLS) method. This study looks at select OECD countries where data on entrepreneurial activity are available and there are calculations by the OECD for the economic projections for 2020.

Foreseeing the Past: Probability and Ancient Greek Decision-Making


 
 
 The article explores the concept of probability in ancient Greece from a non-scientific perspective and shows how ancient decision-makers used historical data to make calculated decisions and speculate about the future. First, the paper considers how quantitative data was used by ancient Greek communities to make economic projections. It then shows how ancient Greek generals used the same conceptual tools to determine their odds of victory by tallying up and comparing the number and composition of armies and resources available to them and their enemy. In the third section, the paper examines how qualitative probability was articulated through the language of hope and likelihood to formulate chances of success in moments of crisis. Finally, the paper shows that ancient decision-makers implemented “power laws” to adapt to changing circumstances and the flow of new information, as they sought to improve their odds of success relative to their rivals.
 
 

Current and future trade in livestock products

Rising per capita consumption, economic growth, and urbanisation, particularly in developing countries, have been driving an increased global demand for food. These changing socio-economic trends, which have greatly influenced changes in dietary patterns globally and, more specifically, have increased consumption of livestock products in developing countries, are expected to endure and to place new pressures on livestock-sector infrastructure and the delivery of veterinary services. This paper summarises current trade in meat and presents plausible projections for the future. It highlights the impact of animal disease on trade and considers the effect of ongoing disease outbreaks, particularly the outbreaks of African swine fever and COVID-19, on current and future trade dynamics. The authors analysed published statistics on the demand for, and international trade in, livestock products at national and regional levels and made projections of the same up to 2050, generated from an integrated model of the global agricultural and food system. The resulting analyses identified patterns of trade consistent with growing populations, increasing incomes and changing diets in developing countries. The analyses also pointed to slow expansion of livestock production, and the impacts of countries’ disease status on livestock trade. For most of the livestock products analysed, economic model projections indicate increased consolidation of production and exports among a few countries. Marked increases in the trade in livestock products suggest a changing role for Veterinary Services in facilitating trade and extension in the years to come

Hard-to-Abate Sectors: The role of industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS) in emission mitigation

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is an important option in the portfolio of emission mitigation solutions in scenarios that lead to deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We focus on CCS application in hard-to-abate sectors (cement industry, iron and steel, chemicals) and introduce industrial CCS options into the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a global multi-region multi-sector energy-economic model that provides a basis for the analysis of long-term energy deployment. We use the EPPA model to explore the potential for industrial CCS in different parts of the world, under the assumptions that CCS is the only mitigation option for deep GHG emission reductions in industry and that negative emission options are not available for other sectors of the economy. We evaluate CCS deployment in a scenario that limits the increase in average global surface temperature to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. When industrial CCS is not available, global costs of reaching the target are higher by 12% in 2075 and 71% in 2100 relative to the cost of achieving the policy with CCS. Overall, industrial CCS enables continued growth in the use of energy-intensive goods along with large reductions in global and sectoral emissions. We find that in scenarios with stringent climate policy, CCS in the industry sector is a key mitigation option, and our approach provides a path to projecting the deployment of industrial CCS across industries and regions.

Input-Output Table Regionalization and Multiregional Input-Output Model Development Algorithm

The main problems of constructing multiregional input-output (IO) models used for the development of spatial and sectoral long-term national economy forecasts are caused by the absence of proper statistics. Therefore, it is necessary to make up the input-output tables (IOTs) based on a limited set of direct and indirect indicators that measure spatial patterns of production, consumption, capital formation, etc., sufficiently accurate for filling up multiregional IO models. The paper discusses Russian IOT spatial mapping problems and proposes an approach to partial automation of the procedures necessary for regional IOT construction (by federal districts). The regionalization was carried out using a static IO model with the bounding sum control. As a result, a set of consistent regional tables for 2015 was developed, with the eight IOT sum equalling Russia’s IOT. Based on the estimated regional IOTs, a static multiregional input-output model (OMIOM) across federal districts for 2015 was made up. The model allows us to proceed to the follow-up phase, i. e., developing a semi-dynamic model for long-term national economic projection computations

The cost of CO2 transport and storage in global integrated assessment modeling

This paper assesses the range of CO2 transport and storage costs and evaluates their impact on economy-wide modeling results of decarbonization pathways. Much analytic work has been dedicated to evaluating the cost and performance of various CO2 capture technologies, but less attention has been paid to evaluating the cost of CO2 transport and storage. Many integrated assessment modeling studies assume a combined cost for CO2 transport and storage that is uniform in all regions, commonly estimated at $10/tCO2. Realistically, the cost of CO2 transport and storage is not fixed at $10/tCO2 and varies across geographic, geologic, and institutional settings. We surveyed the literature to identify key sources of variability in transport and storage costs and developed a method to quantify and incorporate these elements into a cost range. We find that onshore pipeline transport and storage costs vary from $4 to 45/tCO2 depending on key sources of variability including transport distance, scale (i.e. quantity of CO2 transported and stored), monitoring assumptions, reservoir geology, and transport cost variability such as pipeline capital costs. Using the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, we examined the impact of variability in transport and storage costs by applying a range of uniform costs in all regions in a future where global temperature rise is limited to 2°C. We then developed three modeling cases where transport and storage costs vary regionally. In these latter cases, global cumulative CO2 captured and stored through 2100 ranges from 290 to 377 Gt CO2, compared to 425 Gt CO2 when costs are assumed to be uniformly $10/t CO2 in all regions. We conclude that the widely used assumption of $10/tCO2 for the transport and storage of CO2 is reasonable in some regions, but not in others. Moreover, CCS deployment is more sensitive to transport and storage costs in some regions than others, particularly China. More analysis is needed to further quantify CO2 transport and storage costs at a regional level.

Evaluating the forecasting power of an open-economy DSGE model when estimated in a data-Rich environment

This paper examines the inferences and forecasting benefits that can be made when one incorporates a large quantity of economic time series into international structural macroeconomic models. I estimate a close variation of Adolfson et al. (2007a, 2008) small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in a data-rich environment and evaluate its predictive performance of the Canadian macroeconomy. The data set I use in the paper includes Canadian, American, Asian and European macro-financial data. I compare the forecasting performance of the DSGE model estimated in a data-rich environment (DSGE-DFM) to the forecasts generated by the DSGE model estimated in its traditional fashion and forecasts generated by other reduced form forecasting models. I find that an open-economy DSGE model estimated in a data-rich environment significantly out performs its regularly estimated DSGE counterpart. Further, DSGE-DFM forecasts that incorporate real-time data are similar or better to the Bank of Canada’s Staff Economic Projections for GDP, consumption, investment, and trade statistics. In addition, the DSGE-DFM model of this paper is useful in forecasting both the real and nominal exchange rate in the short and medium-term.

FO-MD setup analysis for acid mine drainage treatment in Chile: An experimental-theoretical economic assessment compared with FO-RO and single RO

Contamination of water bodies by acid mine drainage (AMD) from mining industries is affecting global freshwater availability, especially in arid zones like northern Chile. A real AMD from a contaminated Chilean river was used in this study. This work aimed to evaluate an economic projection of a Forward Osmosis–Membrane Distillation (FO-MD) process versus a Forward Osmosis–Reverse Osmosis (FO-RO) for an AMD treatment. FO-MD continuous assays (12 h) were performed using AMD solution as feed and NaCl as draw solution, achieving an initial flux of 25 LMH with FO and a stable flux around 10 LMH for MD. Different FO-MD economic models were developed using steam and thermal-fluid as heat-source. The cost assessment showed that thermal-fluid FO-MD has a payback period of 1.8 years with a water cost of 3.36 $/m3 while FO-RO's investment return was one year with a water cost of 1.47 $/m3. A Monte Carlo modeling results identified the membrane cost and the thermal energy expense as the elements with the highest impact on the economic indicators. Nevertheless, the economic assessment revealed that if waste-heat is available, the FO-MD operation cost would be lower than FO-RO's (1.29 $/m3), even with today's high FO/MD membrane cost.