Economic Policy Uncertainty Research Articles

Global economic policy uncertainty and oil price uncertainty: Which is more important for global economic activity?

Using monthly data spanning from January 1997 to November 2022, this paper investigates the influence of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and oil price uncertainty (OPU) on global economic activity using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The findings from the baseline model reveal the adverse effects of both GEPU and OPU shocks on the global economy. The counterfactual analysis highlights that the negative impact of OPU shocks primarily stems from direct effects, while approximately half of the adverse impact of GEPU shocks is indirectly transmitted through amplifying OPU. Further examination of the indirect effects of these shocks uncovers that lagged effects primarily drive the indirect impact of OPU, whereas the indirect impact of GEPU is mainly driven by common shocks. These findings suggest a more substantial and independent impact of OPU shocks compared to GEPU shocks. Additionally, employing a time-varying vector autoregressive with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) model, this paper explores the same dataset. The results of time-varying impulse responses illustrate a diminishing effect of GEPU shocks over the sample period, whereas the impact of OPU shocks initially decreases before subsequently increasing.

Do the Political Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Indexes in the G-7 Countries Relate to Stock Prices? Fourier Causality Test Evidence

This study aims to examine the reciprocal effects of the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and the Geopolitical Risks (GPR) on the stock markets (SP) of the G-7 countries. The findings of the study will allow us to answer the following questions: Do risk and uncertainty conditions in other G-7 countries affect their stock markets as much as those in the country itself? Which affects G-7 stock markets more, EPU or GPR? In addition to previous research in the field, this study conducts a comparative analysis of the effects of the EPU and GPR on the SP of G-7 countries. Therefore, we used the linear VAR Granger, Fourier and Fourier Fractional Frequency Granger Causality tests. We found that the EPU indices of the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany had the greatest impact on the stock markets of their respective countries and other G-7 countries, and the conclusion that G-7 stock markets were influenced by economic uncertainties in other member countries was added to the literature. It has also been found that the G-7 stock markets have a broad influence on the EPU index.

Tail risk spillovers between economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: Evidence based on TENET approach

We construct a tail-event-driven network (TENET) to explore the tail risk spillovers between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock market returns (SMR) at three levels: system, region and country. The empirical results show that (i) when major emergencies occur, the tail risk spillovers increase rapidly; (ii) the spillover effects from EPU to SMR are greater than those from SMR to EPU, indicating that EPU exerts a stronger influence; and (iii) both the EPU and SMR of America act as net risk senders, with the EPU of the United States playing a dominant role in the tail risk spillover network.

Should you buy gold stocks or paper gold?

We analyze which type of gold investment is better for investors by studying the determinants of returns on gold mining stocks (gold stocks) and gold exchange-traded commodities (gold ETCs) over the period from March 2012 to February 2024. We find that gold ETCs outperform gold stocks in both returns and risk, and respond significantly more positively to economic policy uncertainty (EPU), offering investors more favorable safe-haven properties. Gold stocks are also more sensitive to oil price increases than are gold ETCs, and their relative price performance is negatively related to both oil price changes and Gold VIX. We conclude that investing in gold stocks is less suitable for investors who buy gold as a safe-haven asset.

Is human capital risk lower in state-owned enterprises? — A textual analysis based on China's listed company annual reports

Based on the annual reports of China's A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2020, this paper constructs a human capital risk index of China's listed companies through the methods of machine learning and explores the impact of state ownership on corporate human capital risk. The results show that compared with non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have lower human capital risk in China. Mechanism tests suggest that SOEs can offer higher compensation and benefits and maintain more stable employment relationships, which reduce human capital risk significantly. Additionally, this effect is more pronounced during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, in regions with weaker talent policies, and in areas with a lower proportion of aging labor force. The study also reveals that SOEs have lower human capital attraction and human capital retention risk than non-SOEs. Furthermore, SOEs have more educated and skilled employees, which contributes to higher human capital. Last, this study finds state ownership enhances innovation output, total factor productivity, and economic value added by mitigating human capital risk.

Coupling between global climate policy uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty

This paper aims to track global climate policy uncertainty (GCPU) and study its impact on economic policy. We develop a news-based index for GCPU spanning from 2000 to 2023, covering twelve countries across six continents. The index exhibits an upward trend after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 and spikes during major climate policy events. We examine the spillover effects from GCPU to global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) using the copula-conditional value-at-risk approach. Our findings suggest that GCPU has significantly influenced GEPU in both upside and downside movements, with a greater effect on the upside.

ESG risk, economic policy uncertainty, and the downside risk: Evidence from US firms

This study investigates the relationship between risk factors of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) and the downside risk of U.S. firms and tackles the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in this relationship. Our results show that the downside risk of firms, as measured by value-at-risk and lower partial moment, is positively affected by ESG risk scores, and that this effect becomes more pronounced as EPU rises. These results are robust to two other alternative measures of ESG risk. We argue that enhancing ESG management and adaptability to economic uncertainty is crucial for aligning with sustainable development goals. Our findings provide valuable insights for U.S. firms, investors, and policymakers looking to navigate the evolving risk landscape.

Do the Energy-Related Uncertainties Stimulate Renewable Energy Demand in Developed Economies? Fresh Evidence from the Role of Environmental Policy Stringency and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty

Despite earlier research on green energy, there is still a significant gap in understanding how energy-related uncertainties affect renewable energy consumption (REN), especially in developed nations. Thus, this study explicitly looks into how the energy-related uncertainty index (EUI) can promote (or diminish) REN in sixteen wealthy nations between 2000 and 2020. Furthermore, we attempt to specify the factors of REN and explore whether environmental policy stringency (EPS) and global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) could help moderate (or intensify) the EUI-REN nexus. To achieve this, we employ different panel data methods. The results underscore that the EUI significantly impacts REN, denoting that higher uncertainties related to energy markets lead to promoting REN. Additionally, the (EUI × EPS) underlines that EPS has a favorable role in increasing the positive effect of the EUI on REN in sample developed countries while (EUI × GEPU) has a detrimental effect. Remarkably, the findings underline that the effect of the EUI on REN is more positive in high EPS countries and that the positive effect of the EUI is more moderate when GEPU is high. The findings also underscore that the development of the financial market, FDI, personal remittances, and EPS positively stimulate REN whereas CO2, total natural resources rents, economic activity, and GEPU have a detrimental impact. The results are robust, and authorities and policymakers are advised to implement a wide range of policy proposals to accomplish sustainable development goals (SDGs) 7 and 13.

US domestic sentiment reactions to climate and economic policy uncertainties: a quantile ARDL approach

ABSTRACT Over the years, climate and economic policy uncertainties have become critical considerations that shape public attitudes. They have the potential to impact people’s perceptions of financial stability, ecosystem integrity, and environmental sustainability. This paper aims to provide evidence on the sensitivity of US business and consumer sentiments to uncertainties arising from climate and economic policies in both short-term and long-term perspectives, and across different sentiment states. Our empirical investigation draws on a quantile ARDL approach, after orthogonalizing original sentiment series with respect to a diverse range of influential factors. The results reveal that climate and economic policy-related uncertainties have a negative impact on business (consumer) sentiment in the short and long run (only in the short run). These effects are particularly more pronounced when pessimistic sentiment begins to take hold. Moreover, we find evidence of locational asymmetry, especially in the long run.

Climate risks, corporate bonds, and economic uncertainty

We test for the existence of climate change risks in corporate bond returns. Using risk factors based on textual analysis of news articles, we estimate the sensitivity of bonds to climate change news. Bonds that covary highly with global warming news earn lower returns. We also test whether economic policy uncertainty moderates the relationship between bond returns and climate news risk. The lower returns to high climate-risk bonds are driven by periods of high economic policy uncertainty. Therefore, investors increase their demand for bonds that perform better in periods of high global warming risks, especially when economic uncertainty is high.

Quantile-frequency connectedness among climate change stocks: The roles of climate change attention and global uncertainties

Concerns regarding climate change and the environment have heightened interest in climate-conscious investing, necessitating a deeper understanding of climate-friendly financial products. This study investigates climate change stock market connectedness and spillover effects, focusing on quantile-frequency dependency. The study utilizes a novel quantile-frequency connectedness with seven MSCI climate change market indices and daily data from January 2014 to December 2022. The empirical analysis reveals that climate change stocks are highly interconnected across various market conditions, including bearish and bullish periods. Spillover effects have amplified during increased stock market turbulence, regardless of market directions. Short-term spillover effects have a stronger impact than long-term effects, regardless of market conditions. Climate change stock markets in Japan and the Asia Pacific consistently experience net shocks, while the United States, Europe, Emerging Markets (EM), North America, and the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) exhibit variations based on market conditions and timeframes. The study identifies events including the 2015 Paris Agreement, the 2016 US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021 US rejoining of the Paris Agreement, and the 2022 Russian-Ukraine War that have influenced the dynamic connectedness and spillover of climate change markets. The analysis also reveals that increased investor attention to climate change leads to higher interconnectedness among climate change stock markets across various market scenarios. Moreover, global financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, global carbon emission futures, oil market uncertainty, and stock market uncertainty significantly impact the interdependence of climate change markets. The findings have implications for portfolio managers, emphasizing the need for hedging techniques to mitigate risks in climate change markets.

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Global Economic Leaders’ Influence on Regional Economic Growth

This study aims to evaluate the regional economic growth of select American, European, and Asian countries amidst global economic uncertainty. The proposed methodology incorporates mixed frequencies in the data (VAR-MIDAS), facilitating the assessment of their reliance on lagged values, the impact of economic growth in other countries within the same region, and the influence of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU). This sheds light on the effects of economic news from relevant newspapers on GDP growth. The primary hypothesis suggests a significant influence of other countries within the same region and the two major global economic powers on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of each studied region, namely the United States and China. This research also examines this hypothesis across 19 GEPU-included economies, categorizing them regionally by continent. The econometric results confirm the influence of the two leading economies on economic growth and identify causal relationships, with GEPU also exhibiting effects on GDP. Additionally, in-sample estimations reveal disparities in the influence of leaders on the economic growth of the examined economies.

Measuring firm-level manager risk perception

Using textual analysis of Chinese listed firms’ filings, we construct a new firm-level measure of manager risk perception. The measure identifies the extent of risk perceived by managers. We validate our measure by showing that it varies over time and across industries, correlates with aggregate economic policy uncertainty and firm-level stock return volatility, and relates cross-sectionally with firm characteristics. Managers with higher risk perception leads to a lower level of firm investment.

Incorporating Different Sources of Information for Bayesian Optimal Portfolio Selection

This article introduces Bayesian inference procedures for tangency portfolios, with a primary focus on deriving a new conjugate prior for portfolio weights. This approach not only enables direct inference about the weights but also seamlessly integrates additional information into the prior specification. Specifically, it automatically incorporates high-frequency returns and a market condition metric (MCM), exemplified by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU), significantly enhancing the decision-making process for optimal portfolio construction. While the Jeffreys’ prior is also acknowledged, emphasis is placed on the advantages and practical applications of the conjugate prior. An extensive empirical study reveals that our method, leveraging this conjugate prior, consistently outperforms existing trading strategies in the majority of examined cases.

Encuesta a las empresas españolas sobre la evolución de su actividad: tercer trimestre de 2024

Rationale The Banco de España Business Activity Survey (EBAE) provides highly valuable, real-time information on the turnover, employment and costs and prices of a broad sample of Spanish firms. This information is particularly helpful for diagnosing current economic developments. Takeaways • Firms have perceived a decline in their turnover in 2024 Q3, albeit of a smaller magnitude than those recorded in the third quarter of the previous two years. • Inflationary pressures have continued to ease in Q3, in terms of the cost of inputs and selling prices and labour costs. • The negative impact of economic policy uncertainty, labour shortages and rising energy costs remains high, although the proportion of firms affected by factors related to access to financing and growing interest expense has declined.

Food security in Pakistan: Investigating the spillover effect of Russia-Ukraine conflict

This is study investigates inter-connectedness of Russia-Ukraine conflict with wheat prices in Pakistan through oil prices, exchange rate, economic policy uncertainty. This objective is realized by employing cross-quantilogram, rolling window multiple correlation, and TVP-Var approaches on weekly data from 7 to 1–2021 to 9–3–2023. The estimated results of cross-quantilogram, rolling window multiple correlation reveal significant positive co-movement between Russian and Ukraine conflict and wheat prices. The major variables responsible for the spillover effect are oil prices, depreciation of exchange rate, and economic policy uncertainty. The finding urges to stabilize exchange rate and economic policy uncertainty along with finding alternative cheap energy sources.

Common institutional ownership and corporate maturity mismatch

Using data from Chinese listed firms from 2003 to 2022, we find that common institutional ownership significantly increases maturity mismatches of investment and financing by reducing the aggressiveness of corporate strategy. This relationship remains qualitatively the same after a battery of robustness and diagnostic tests and becomes stronger in observations with lower industry competition or economic policy uncertainty. Our study has implications for promoting institutional investors in China and forestalling major financial risks.

How green screening influences risk transmission among stock-bond indices: Insight into the dependence structure

Green characteristics are pivotal to risk transmission. We use environmental, social and governance (ESG) monetized accounting to measure green screening of stock-bond indices, and decompose risk transmission into comovement, contagion and hedging effects via a patched dependence structure model. Mechanisms through which green screening impacts three types of risk transmission effects are elucidated. Results indicate that high level of green screening is associated with significantly reduced comovement and contagion effects while hedging effects. Market sentiment factors such as interest rates, economic policy uncertainty and consumer confidence are identified as crucial channels. These results are further tested to be robust.

Taking matters into their own hands: How Investors' stock preferences affect mutual fund flows in China

We examine the impact of investors' stock preferences in mutual funds' portfolios on fund flows in China. Our results indicate that mutual funds with an investment style consistent with individual investors' stock preferences have higher fund flow. We find that it affects only individual investors' fund flow, not institutional investors' fund flow. This impact is greater during periods of low economic policy uncertainty or high investor sentiment. Moreover, this impact is reduced with larger fund size or longer fund age. The reasonable explanation is that investors infer fund managers' skills by analyzing the stocks in the fund's portfolio. This explanation is further validated by the results using index funds as the control group. Our findings challenge the assumption that mutual fund investors fully delegate decisions to professionals. Further analysis reveals there is no significant correlation between these preferences and future returns. Our findings contribute to the study of mutual fund investor behavior from a fresh perspective.

Debt distribution and ESG performance: Evidence from Chinese listed companies

Utilizing consolidated and parent company financial statement data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2022, this study empirically examines the impact of group debt distribution on ESG performance. The study reveals that as the proportion of debt financing assumed by the parent company increases, the ESG performance of the corporate group improves. After conducting endogeneity tests and other robustness checks, the research findings remain consistent. Further analysis shows that concentrated liabilities can improve the environmental, social, and governance performance of the group. Cross-sectional analysis demonstrates that the influence of concentrated liabilities on ESG performance is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises, during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, non-heavy pollution industry companies, when subsidiaries are geographically dispersed, and when there are more subsidiaries in various industries. This study provides empirical support for the positive externality of internal capital markets and offers valuable insights for ESG practices among listed companies.