Russian Economic Policy Research Articles

Factors of military Keynesianism in modern economic policy in Russia

Historical aspects, general economic logic and theoretical discussions around military Keynesianism as a policy of stimulating the economy through increased government allocations for defense items are considered. A brief overview of empirical studies on the economic results of military spending is presented. In relation to the period 2022—2024 in the Russian economy, the size of the fiscal impulse due to defense budget items, its positive and negative effects are analyzed. The secondary nature and low controllability of economic effects of defense policy are emphasized. Among the factors hindering the success of military Keynesianism in modern Russia, limited spare capacity and labor are noted, which generate inflationary consequences, as well as the contradiction between tightening monetary conditions and continued fiscal stimulus. The conclusion is made about the predominance and possible aggravation of negative consequences of the expansion of financing through military spending

Dynamic spillovers of various uncertainties to Russian financial stress: Evidence from quantile dependency and frequency connectedness approaches

Being geopolitically exposed, the Russian financial sector is vulnerable to various ­uncertainties. The aim of the article is to examine the quantile movements and dynamic connectedness of uncertainty indices with the financial stress index of Russia employing the cross-quantilogram (CQ), recursive cross-quantilogram (R-CQ) and TVP‑VAR dynamic connectedness using monthly data from July 2011 to August 2023. It is found that for Tweeter-based Economic Uncertainty (TEU) and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU), there is strong positive dependence on the Russian Financial Stress Index (RFSI) in the bearish states of market in the initial memory, and the strength of this positive spillover effect gradually wilts towards longer memory structures. Unlike the GEPU, Russian Economic Policy Uncertainty (REPU) has long-lasting heterogeneous spillover effects on RFSI. Though there are significant positive, as well as negative, spillover ­effects of Global Geopolitical Risk (GGPR) on RFSI in the initial memory, across the longer­ memory structures these entire heterogeneous effects wash out. However, Russian Geopolitical Risk (RGPR) have long-lasting heterogeneous spillover effects on RFSI, unlike GGPR. GEPU, GGPR and RGPR were the net transmitters while RFSI, TEU and REPU were net receivers of volatility shocks. Since RFSI shows resilience over the long-term horizon to global geopolitics and economic uncertainty, investors are advised to keep patience and hold their capital/investment up to a minimum of 1 year in Russian financial system in order to be rewarded with positive returns.

Profit Tax as a Character of Regional Budget of Our Time

The authors develop approaches to tax decentralization based on the theory of imperfect institutions by T. Eggertsson, in terms of the critically important profit tax for regional budgets of Russia. We see the goal of our research in finding a balance between the action of formal rules and informal, social norms, technologies, and models for distributing the profits of the largest Russian companies as a tax base between the federal center of Russia and the regions depending on the actual location of employees and assets. The article is devoted to the action of a successful and unique formal rule of the tax institution for the Russian Federation – the formation of consolidated groups of taxpayers (CGT). The novelty of the article lies in the study of the phenomenon of transformation of the domestic system of paying profit tax in 2023 as a replacement of one formal rule (action of CGTs) with another formal rule – the introduction of a new excess profit tax for Russia. An empirical study of the regional distribution of payments of legal entities-payers of profit tax according to the formal rules of the CGTs from among the largest Russian companies registered outside Moscow was conducted. Based on the results of the study, a general conclusion was made about the acute contradiction of the current economic policy in Russia in the content of the tax institution: between the new informal social norm on territorial decentralization of the largest Russian companies and the opposite formal rules of tax centralization in terms of profit tax. In this regard, the current policy of coincidence of territorial and tax decentralization in terms of state-owned companies in China deserves attention.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES AS BASIS OF ENERGY SECURITY IN THE LEADING COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD

The article provides an analysis of the political goals of the leading countries of the world in terms of energy efficiency and the transition to alternative energy sources, and concludes that energy efficiency is in the focus of policy not because of environmental factors, but due to the strengthening of energy security in certain Western countries. The priority of energy efficiency as the basis of energy security leads to a situation when cheap energy resources of the exporting country are not considered a competitive advantage. An environment where not only economic (economic expediency), but also political choice (the search for new spheres of influence) is crucial, is emerging. Solving energy problems goes beyond the limits of standard economic tasks and is impossible without political goal-setting and will. Improving energy efficiency can create new competitive advantages for the state, such as universal access to energy. It is not possible to make a rapid transition to alternative energy sources, but in the long term, an active policy on energy efficiency and the use of alternative sources can yield high results in the energy sector. Competition in the world in the field of non-renewable energy sources will increase in the future, therefore, solving the problem of energy efficiency should be a top priority in order to prevent public issues such as the energy security of future generations. In this regard, it is important to identify the relationship between energy efficiency, the use of alternative energy sources and energy security in Russia's economic policy and to approve the priority of energy efficiency at all levels: national, regional and municipal one.

Multiplier and investment in modern Russia in the context of stimulating economic development in the context of sanctions

Aim. To analyze the degree of investment impact on economic growth in modern Russia.Objectives. To study the multiplier effect as a key tool for stimulating economic activity and creating new jobs, developing innovations and reducing social inequality; to identify its significance for the national economy in modern conditions of inherent uncertainty.Methods. The research is based on the empirical study of the multiplier effect and gas pedal effect on the materials of the modern Russian economy. The analysis is based on the use of dynamic time series, definition of dependent and independent variables in the context of identified correlations between them. The data of literary sources on the assessment of the impact of the investment multiplier effect on economic growth were also studied.Results. The multiplier effect can have a significant impact on the formation of the structure of the economy, contributing to an increase in production, reducing unemployment and improving the standard of living of the population. The study of this effect allows us to better understand the mechanisms of economic functioning and develop recommendations for optimizing investment policy to achieve sustainable economic growth, which is important for modern Russia developing under sanctions pressure. The study of paired regression revealed a mathematical relationship between the increase in investment in fixed capital and the growth of gross domestic product (GDP), as well as between GDP growth and the increase in investment in fixed capital. The high correlation coefficient (r = 0.945896) and coefficient of determination (R² = 89.47 %) confirm that there is a strong relationship between fixed capital investment and GDP. This indicates that most of the changes in output can be explained through changes in fixed capital investment.Conclusions. The results of the analysis confirm the importance of investment in fixed capital as a key factor of economic growth and development in modern Russia. Strengthening investment activity allows not only to increase the level of economic development as a whole, but also contributes to the creation of favorable conditions for sustainable growth of income of the population, innovation activity, etc. In this regard, investment stimulation should become one of the priorities in the current Russian economic policy.

The Russian economic policy and its relations with China and India in the aftermath of Western sanctions (2014 - 2023)

The article delves into Russia's economic strategy in response to financial sanctions imposed by the West from 2014 to 2023, analyzing its monetary policies and capital controls. Additionally, it examines Russia's financial relations with China and India, highlighting how these nations became key allies following the sanctions due to the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Ukraine. The article investigates the nature of the alliance formed by Russia and China highlighting the symbiosis generated at the core of this relationship and the importance of India in playing a strategic role in the economic network woven by Russia.

Research on Pricing on Re Market in Sevastopol

Affordability of housing is one of the most important and topical trends, that is taken into account in pursuing state economic policy in Russia. Pricing process on RE market acts as a serious factor influencing housing affordability and appeal of certain regions for continuous residence. Construction volumes directly depend on effective demand and conditions of mortgage crediting. The article discusses acute issues of certain factor impact on pricing process on RE market. In order to identify the interconnection of these factors the research conducted econometric assessment of the impact of wage dynamics and mortgage crediting portfolio on changes in market RE cost in the city of federal importance Sevastopol. Methods used in the research: models of vector auto-regression (standard and bias). Data of official statistics were used as an information base, including data of the Bank of Russia, as well as publications by economists. The initial hypothesis of the research said that proposed variables influence seriously the actual figure of housing cost in the region. Econometric analysis of this thesis proved in general the hypothesis. Findings of the research can form a scientific base for forecasting inflation processes on RE market in the city of Sevastopol and can be used in other entities of the Russian Federation.

Развитие концепции воспитательного протекционизма в истории экономической мысли

An important issue within the framework of economic theory has always been the problem of the relationship between free trade and protectionist measures to protect domestic production. At a certain stage, the ideology of free trade (developed by Adam Smith, David Ricardo) became the mainstream of economic thought. Later, within the framework of the German Historical school, an important contribution was made by the economist Friedrich List, who proposed the concept of educational protectionism as an alternative to the free trade ideology of classical political economy. In this article it is proposed to analyze the main ideas and arguments of the concept of educational protectionism and compare them with the argumentation of other economic schools. Were described the characteristics of the German Historical school. It was shown, that despite some similar ideas, the concept of educational protectionism is very different from mercantilist ideas, this concept does not deny free trade direction from a historical perspective, but in some way offers a way of transition to free trade policy. The institutional and economic restrictions, that F. List considers for the success of protectionist policy, were analyzed. The reaction to the concept of educational protectionism was shown, both from the point of view of the role of this concept in economic policy in Russia, and from the point of view of a negative attitude towards this concept from socialist thought, including Rudolf Hilferding. It can be concluded that the concept of educational protectionism also turned out to be largely utopian, but it played an important role in expanding the boundaries of the discussion about free trade and the factors determining this trade policy.

An Authoritative Accessory. The IMF’s Role in the 1993 Russian Constitutional Crisis

Abstract This article examines the role of the International Monetary Fund in Russia’s 1993 constitutional crisis. The IMF’s role in the crisis remains as politically contested as it is empirically unknown. Critics of Yeltsin’s actions have implied that he was acting at the behest of the United States and, by extension, the IMF. By contrast, many scholars of post-Soviet Russia have concluded that the IMF had little effect on Russian political decision making throughout the 1990s. This article adds to this debate by bringing to light for the first time the IMF’s own detailed records of its interactions with the Russian government in the latter half of 1993 and early 1994. The picture that emerges is a complex one: there is no evidence that the IMF was anything more than an observer of the violent standoff between Yeltsin and Parliament. But IMF officials did hope the dissolution of parliament would clear the way for deeper economic reforms, and they pushed the government that emerged from December 1993 elections into accepting a number of austerity measures. Therefore, the Fund’s relations with Moscow at the time of the 1993 crisis form one important chapter in a longer history of the IMF gaining control over Russian economic policy during the course of the 1990s.

Актуальные проблемы реализации государственной экономической политики на современном этапе: антикризисный аспект

The subject of the study is the priorities of state policy in the field of economic development at the federal and regional levels. The purpose of the work is to establish anti–crisis aspects of the transformation of Russia's economic policy in the context of the new reality of a changing geopolitical format based on the use of such general scientific methods as observation, collection and processing of statistical data, comparison, study of information sources, critical review of scientific publications, etc. The article examines the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators for 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. The main problems and crisis-forming factors of the functioning of the Russian economy are identified. The prerequisites for the transformation of economic state policy are determined. Special attention is paid to evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of anti-crisis measures taken by the Government of the Russian Federation. The vectors and drivers of further economic development are highlighted and promising directions of the state's anti-crisis policy are substantiated. The article concludes that it is necessary to move from the period of formation and implementation of an adaptation policy within the framework of modern realities of functioning in new geopolitical conditions to economic growth based on the implementation of a set of anti-crisis measures to form an updated economic potential of the country with self-sufficiency and full scientific, technological, personnel, production, financial sovereignty for a radical change and elaboration of the vector of further development of the domestic market on the basis of a clear strategic program of a set of anti-crisis measures and a radical change in budgetary and social policy.

СОСТОЯНИЕ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ РАЗВИТИЯ РОССИЙСКОГО НЕСЫРЬЕВОГО НЕЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОГО ЭКСПОРТА В УСЛОВИЯХ САНКЦИОННОГО ДАВЛЕНИЯ

Currently, the development of non-resource non-energy exports (or NNE) remains one of the most important guidelines for Russian economic policy. The authors show that, largely thanks to the national project “International Cooperation and Export,” there was a systematic increase in the volume of Russian NNE until 2022, but large-scale sanctions restrictions interrupted the given positive trend, mainly due to the loss of a significant part of the European market. Using the export competitiveness index, it was revealed that the most promising categories for enhancing the growth of NNE with certain “friendly” countries remain products of lower and middle processing. It is concluded that, given the low expectations for the growth of total exports in the coming years, the restoration of NNE volumes to the “pre-crisis” level may be delayed, which requires the development of an effective system of supporting measures, as well as adaptation of existing ones to the current conditions.

Economic Impact on Russia After the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

Based on the premise of the outbreak of war in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict war, the following article examines the impact on the Russian macro and micro economy. Raw oil, fertilizer fuels and gas energy are the main pillars of the Russian economy, while the domestic economy is dominated by the service sector. The methodology of research on the Russian economy is the integration of information and data through academic articles. One of the main sources of damage to the Russian economy was found to be the series of economic sanctions implemented by the United States and the European Union, and the main groups affected by these losses, in terms of data, were the wealthy Russians and senior members of the government leadership. At the macro level, Russian energy exports have suffered a severe setback, with a larger percentage drop compared to previous years. In the meanwhile, however, the losses to the Russian economy and the impact from inflation have been reduced by increasing the share of trade with the Chinese market and improving the domestic economic policies. This study will help to explore the development of a more appropriate economic policy in Russia and the direction of foreign trade, as well as recommendations for the reorganization of the economic structure in the country. However, the drawback of the study is that the material or content of the study may not always have a clear political stance, which may affect the judgment of researcher to the real state of the Russian economy.

On the Path of Strategic Development of the Economy in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) (to the 100th anniversary of the State Planning Committee of the Yakut Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic)

In 2023, the planning authorities of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) will celebrate their 100th anniversary, and the article is devoted to the analysis of the strategic planning system in the republic. A historical cross-section of the Soviet and Russian planning systems is presented with intermediate results achieved at different stages of the socio-economic development of the republic by the beginning of the 2020s. The purpose of the study is to analyze long-term planning documents at various stages of the development of Yakutia, from its formation as the Yakut Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic to the present day of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). The early 1990s saw the collapse of the administrative-directive economic system in the Soviet Union that had existed for 70 years, while the creation and functioning of market economy institutions was protracted. The breakdown of the single economic space made it difficult for the union republics of the former USSR to transit to a market economy: most of their economic potential was lost, technological supply chains for goods, works and services were broken, unemployment and poverty appeared. Russia was no exception. It is advisable to turn to the experience of regions that have successfully passed the planning stage together with domestic research institutes and scientists. The article is addressed to representatives of government authorities, researchers, teachers and students of higher and secondary specialized educational institutions, as well as a wide audience of readers interested in various aspects of the development and implementation of state economic policy in Russia.

Risk management system as a tool of Customs Protectionism in the context of changing Economic policy of Russia

Subject/topic. This article examines the development of the risk management system used in customs control by the customs authorities of Russia as an instrument of customs protectionism. Goals/tasks. The purpose of the study is to determine the importance of the risk management system in ensuring the protection of national economic interests in the context of changes in Russia's economic policy. The objectives of the work include: identifying the impact of the risk management system on the transparency of foreign trade operations and economic sustainability; establishing the adaptability of its application for the purposes of economic policy; identifying promising areas for its improvement. Methodology. The work uses general scientific methods (collection, analysis, synthesis) of information. To obtain intermediate conclusions, the method of structural-dynamic analysis, structural analysis, and analysis of the source base was applied. The conclusions obtained in the results are due to the use of logical research methods. Results. It has been established that customs risk management is carried out in accordance with international standards involving the reduction of administrative barriers in the implementation of foreign economic activity and ensuring trade security, as well as national standards in the field of risk management. The effectiveness and expediency of applying a modern risk management system in order to increase the transparency of foreign trade operations and the stability of the economy is proved. It is revealed that the risk management system is effectively used as a tool to protect Russian foreign trade participants under international restrictions. The expediency of modernizing the risk management system in terms of expanding and unifying its application within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as through the introduction of artificial intelligence methods into its algorithms, is argued. Conclusions/significance. The authors conclude that the risk management system is of significant importance as a tool of customs protectionism in the context of changes in Russia's economic policy. The results obtained on the adaptability of the risk management system to modern goals and objectives of economic policy can be taken into account when developing mechanisms for implementing state regulation of economic processes both in the aspect of domestic economy and in the aspect of international economic interaction.

Оценка эффектов пандемии COVID-19 для туризма на основе агрегированного показателя

The purpose of the work is to propose and test a method for assessing the effects of the pandemic on Russian tourism in comparison with a number of other countries based on an aggregate indicator of the contribution of this industry to the economy. The role and place of the tourism industry in the global economy, the industry characteristics of tourism and the special significance of measures to support it in modern Russian economic policy are characterized. A cross-country comparative analysis of the aggregated indicator of the contribution of tourism to the economy was carried out, which was calculated on the basis of three partial indicators: the contribution of the tourism industry to the country's GDP; share of tourism in the total number of jobs; share of spending by incoming tourists in total exports. Data used from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). The pandemic contraction and subsequent recovery of the industry are described by indices of the aggregate indicator, where its value in 2019 is taken as the base. It was revealed that among the G20 countries, Russia ranks second to last in terms of the aggregate indicator of the contribution of tourism to the economy. At the same time, it demonstrates a relatively small “compression” of the industry in 2020 and a low rate of industry recovery in 2021. The weak response of Russian tourism to the pandemic can be explained, firstly, by the relatively small significance of its initial contribution to the economy and, secondly, by government employment support measures taken in 2020. At the same time, the low rate of restoration of the contribution of Russian tourism to the economy in 2021 indicates the need to increase the effectiveness of industry regulation measures and, for this purpose, study the best global practices for restoring tourism in countries such as Mexico, Italy, Turkey, etc.

Designing of a Modern Scientific Paradigm as the Basis of Russia's Economic Policy

The current stage of development of the Russian economy and society is characterized by the need to bring a coherent scientific paradigm (theory) under the economic state policy. The need to choose and substantiate such a paradigm is a complex and, at the same time, an urgent task over the past 20–30 years. For these purposes, the concept of «paradigm» is analyzed. The significance of the choice of the economic paradigm is substantiated as the basis of the economic and social system of the Russian society, influencing the economic policy of the state and the choice of its instruments. The significance of economic theory (paradigm) in the interpretation of empirical data and their relationship is substantiated. One and the same phenomenon can be interpreted in different ways, depending on the theory in which the empirical data and the results of their analysis are interpreted. On the example of the role of the state in the economy, its various interpretations are given, depending on the chosen economic theory. The existence of a crisis in the current scientific paradigm is argued and the need to form a new one is substantiated. The paper analyzes two approaches to changing the scientific paradigm: revolutionary (T. Kuhn) and evolutionary (J. M. Keynes). A review of scientific paradigms (economic theories) proposed as a civilizational paradigm by Russian researchers-economists over the past 15 years is carried out. Evidence is provided that the current economic paradigm substantively and methodologically incorporates aspects of three concepts: the concept of a service state, the concept of an effective state (good governance) and the concept of sustainable development. At a higher level, the new concept should be based on a systems paradigm. The shortcomings of the existing concept are analyzed. The feasibility is substantiated and the need to include the moral aspect (ethics, trust) in the construction of the Russia’s economic paradigm is argued.

PROBLEMS OF REALIZATION OF THE STATE FINANCIAL CONTROL OVER THE USE BUDGETARY FUNDS

State financial control over the use of budgetary funds is an important component of the financial policy of the state, providing its financial stability, which directly depends on the organization and activities of various bodies of control over the use of financial resources of the state.
 A significant number of studies are devoted to the analysis of activity of bodies of state financial control over the use of budgetary funds, where it is pointed out that there are a number of problems in our country, which need to be solved.
 The purpose of the research. To reveal the problems of realization of the state financial control over the use of budgetary funds and to offer ways of their solution
 Materials and methods. General scientific and special methods of cognition (scientific-theoretical and scientific-practical analysis, method of legal and comparative-legal characteristics, method of research and comparison, method of generalization, separation of selection, method of synthesis and analysis, method of critical analysis). The information base of this work is the materials of theoretical and scientific research (scientific articles, monographs, dissertations and reports).
 Results. The problems of realization of the state financial control over the use of budgetary funds, revealed in the work, lead to a decrease in the quality of the control activities themselves. As a result, it leads to violations of budgetary legislation, including in the part of budgetary funds utilization.
 Ways of their solution were proposed, namely in the need to create in the Russian Federation a unified system of financial control for all authorized bodies, in their full interaction, which will function on the basis of a unified regulatory framework, on the basis of the law on state financial control, standardization of control.
 Scope of application of the results. The obtained conclusions can be used in the course of work from planning to issuing the results of inspections by financial control bodies.
 Recommendations. Efficiency and effectiveness of the state financial control over the use of budgetary funds directly depends on the level of its legal regulation, organization and systematization. Realization of measures on elimination of problems of realization of the state financial control over use of budgetary means will be the key to successful realization of economic policy in Russia.

Purchases as a Tool of Implementing State Policy

The research deals with the system of state purchases, within which goals of state economic policy can be attained. The article studies and describes functions performed by the national system of state purchases. Special attention was paid to specific features of state purchases as a tool of influencing the macro-economic system controlled by government. Academic novelty of the research implies identification of various functional specificities of the process of planning and conducting state purchases, including their orientation to providing the state sector with necessary goods and services, influencing the macro-economic system of the country and document – administrative regulations of state purchase support. The author summarized the impact of state purchase realization on economic, legal, technological and innovation process in national economy and making-up the extended effective list of functions performed by state purchases. By analyzing statistic and report data of operators of the national system of state purchases and the Federal Service of State Statistics and figures of state purchase efficiency used by bodies of state authorities the author appraised the quality of the development of Russian economic policy in the field of state purchases.

News and narratives: A cointegration analysis of Russian economic policy uncertainty

Russia has become more integrated and dependent on global developments over the last decades, despite being ruled by an increasingly autocratic regime. We perform a cointegration analysis on a monthly dataset spanning from 2001 to 2021, with a limited set of variables reflecting both domestic and international developments. Results point to significant interactions between these two dimensions, mostly over the short-term. Kremlin may employ media control as a discretionary policy instrument to influence popular support for the incumbent, but this works slowly and is hardly sustainable in the long-term.

Areas of Application of Protectionism in Russian Economic Policy

Areas of Application of Protectionism in Russian Economic Policy