Economic Policy Analysis Research Articles

El tema de la seguridad en la comprensión internacional de Susan Strange

After examinig key aspects of Susan Strange´s analysis of international economic policy, which emphasizes changes in the concept of power international business negotiations as «policy» and pressures imposed by technologies on markets and the relevant actors, the article suggests that they may marginally affect security studies and analyses, particularly vis a vis problems faced by states following reforms of the nineties.

A meta-analysis of health state valuations for people with diabetes: explaining the variation across methods and implications for economic evaluation

To review published studies on the effect of diabetes and its complications on utility scores to establish whether there is systematic variation across studies and to examine the implications for the estimation of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). A systematic review was performed using studies reporting QALY measures elicited from people with diabetes including those with a history of complications. Meta-analysis was used to obtain the average utility, and meta-regression was employed to examine the impact of study characteristics and elicitation methods on these values. The effect of different utility scores on QALYs was examined using diabetes simulation models. In the meta-analysis based on 45 studies reporting 66 values, the average utility score was 0.76 (95% CI 0.75-0.77). A meta-regression showed significant variation due to age, method of elicitation and the proportion of males. The average utility score for individual complications ranged from 0.48 (95% CI 0.25, 0.71) for chronic renal disease to 0.75 (95% CI 0.73, 0.78) for myocardial infarction, and these differences produced meaningful changes in simulated QALYs. There was significant heterogeneity between studies. We provide summary utility scores for diabetes and its major complications that could help inform economic evaluation and policy analysis.

Principals, agents, and the European Union's foreign economic policies

In the introduction to this collection on the principal–agent approach and the European Union's (EU) foreign economic policies we briefly present the EU's institutional structure for policy-making in trade, monetary, development and international competition and financial policy. We also offer some data on the extent of the EU's involvement in the international economy. Our discussion of the principal–agent approach and how it can be applied to an analysis of the EU's foreign economic policies forms the basis of the following contributions. It allows us to formulate three questions that are of particular interest for applications of the principal–agent approach to the EU. Finally, we summarize the various studies included in this collection.

ANÁLISE DA DINÂMICA DO MODELO IS-MP PARA A ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA CONTEMPORÂNEA

Este trabalho tem objetivo discutir uma nova abordagem para o modelo IS-LM proposta por Romer (2000), ao qual a curva LM é substituída por uma curva MP (política monetária do Banco Central). O trabalho foi motivado pela necessidade de um modelo mais coerente com a realidade econômica corrente para previsão e análise de políticas econômicas. Também foi feita uma análise dinâmica do modelo para conhecer seu comportamento em relação a mudanças de equilíbrio. Os dados macroeconômicos usados nos modelos econométricos são do Ipeadata, sendo dados trimestrais indo do primeiro trimestre de 1995 ao quarto trimestre de 2007.

Finansijske analize - paradigma za formulisanje zdravstvenih programa i strategija

In today's, rather the changed conditions imposed by the pressing need, the feasibility of health programs meticulously measured and analyzed in order to overcome obstacles and eliminate factors that threaten to jeopardize their implementation within a specified time period. Accordingly, defined, deliver and take conscious action (and / or alternatives) that should support and escort each goal in the health care program until the end. It makes a great contribution and health strategies. It is the process of undertaking a wide range of activities in health, and then in other sectors and areas that influence the implementation of selected health programs. Together with the economic policy and financial analysis that are used to measure the invested funds and used a powerful tool in the hands of the creators and promoters of health system development. Benefits for selected health programs are achieved the desired effects of the development goals, and in most countries for their evaluation using cost-benefit analysis. Theoretically, the benefits are supposed to assist, advantages and often a profit. Evaluation of benefit cost of selected health of the opposition uses the cost (cost) in other words, compare prices and benefits, i.e. inputs and outputs. On the other hand, effectiveness is estimated by applying cost-effectiveness analysis, which in recent decades has become synonymous in the true sense of the word, the economic viability of engagement resources (inputs) and their effects (outputs). This analysis is just one of the techniques of economic evaluation, which qualify the application of its natural advantages. It is estimated (evaluated) the effects achieved by the implementation of selected health program at the appropriate time. Evaluation of the effects in order to demonstrate the extent to which the results can be evaluated differently, it is often subjected to various abuses.

FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF THE COMPREHENSIVE PROFIT TARGET

The theoretical and practical dilemma of profit maximization offers an opportunity for enterprises to achieve the target of laudable and harmonious development while pursuing comprehensive profit. The realization of the comprehensive profit target is based on the expansion of assumptions of self-regarding and stable preference in the mainstream analysis paradigm and the integration of these preferences. Thus, the integrated individual preferences are the unity of self-regarding and other-regarding preferences, which are scenario-dependent, endogenous, evolutionary, and rooted in social systems. Analysis of the dynamic evolution of the integration of individual preferences shows that the comprehensive profit target is the necessary claim of the enterprise to maximize its profit, and it is an endogenous variable in the operation of enterprise. This proves that it has far-reaching significances in economic theory and policy analysis of the harmonious development of enterprises in the context of financial crisis.

Continuous spatial modelling to analyse planning and economic consequences of offshore wind energy

Offshore wind resources appear abundant, but technological, economic and planning issues significantly reduce the theoretical potential. While massive investments are anticipated and planners and developers are scouting for viable locations and consider risk and impact, few studies simultaneously address potentials and costs together with the consequences of proposed planning in an analytical and continuous manner and for larger areas at once. Consequences may be investments short of efficiency and equity, and failed planning routines. A spatial resource economic model for the Danish offshore waters is presented, used to analyse area constraints, technological risks, priorities for development and opportunity costs of maintaining competing area uses. The SCREAM-offshore wind model (Spatially Continuous Resource Economic Analysis Model) uses raster-based geographical information systems (GIS) and considers numerous geographical factors, technology and cost data as well as planning information. Novel elements are weighted visibility analysis and geographically recorded shipping movements as variable constraints. A number of scenarios have been described, which include restrictions of using offshore areas, as well as alternative uses such as conservation and tourism. The results comprise maps, tables and cost-supply curves for further resource economic assessment and policy analysis. A discussion of parameter variations exposes uncertainties of technology development, environmental protection as well as competing area uses and illustrates how such models might assist in ameliorating public planning, while procuring decision bases for the political process. The method can be adapted to different research questions, and is largely applicable in other parts of the world.

Economics and ethics: an introduction

Preface PART I: INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Introduction Economics Without Ethics? Approaches to Ethics and Justice PART II: ETHICAL VALUES, INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR AND SOCIAL INTERACTIONS Individuals, Norms and Ethical Values Social Interactions and Ethical Values Markets and Ethical Values PART III: ETHICAL ISSUES FOR EVALUATING ECONOMICS AND ECONOMIC POLICY ANALYSIS The Morality of Markets and Government Intervention Individual Preferences, Efficiency and Cost-Benefit Analysis Production, Income and Growth Fairness, Distribution and Equality PART IV: APPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSION Ethics and Applied Economics Conclusion References Index

One model and various experts: Evaluating Dutch macroeconomic forecasts

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) uses a large macroeconomic model to create forecasts of various important macroeconomic variables. The outcomes of this model are usually filtered by experts, and it is the expert forecasts that are made available to the general public. In this paper we re-create the model forecasts for the period 1997–2008 and compare the expert forecasts with the pure model forecasts. Our key findings from the first time that this unique database has been analyzed are that (i) experts adjust upwards more often; (ii) expert adjustments are not autocorrelated, but their sizes do depend on the value of the model forecast; (iii) the CPB model forecasts are biased for a range of variables, but (iv) at the same time, the associated expert forecasts are more often unbiased; and that (v) expert forecasts are far more accurate than the model forecasts, particularly when the forecast horizon is short. In summary, the final CPB forecasts de-bias the model forecasts and lead to higher accuracies than the initial model forecasts.

Building Bridges between Structural and Program Evaluation Approaches to Evaluating Policy

This paper compares the structural approach to economic policy analysis with the program evaluation approach. It offers a third way to do policy analysis that combines the best features of both approaches. We illustrate the value of this alternative approach by making the implicit economics of LATE explicit, thereby extending the interpretability and range of policy questions that LATE can answer.

Perfect competition and sustainability: a brief note

PurposePerfect competition (PC), despite its abstract nature, is central to the literature on shadow prices and remains an important benchmark in economic policy analysis. Adding sustainability to the conditions of PC, results in a meaningful benchmark, especially in the context of pursuing sustainability as a policy goal. On this basis, some standard explanations involving the comparisons with imperfect competition can be questioned. But, importantly the recognition of sustainability besides the standard conditions of PC provides the basis for expositing voluntary environmental stewardship. This paper aims to address these issues.Design/methodology/approachThe paper focuses on PC and sustainability (PCS) and PC and PCS vs monopoly.FindingsThe implications of this simple analysis are at least three‐fold. First, in the sphere of applied economics and policy analysis, PC has served as an important benchmark – especially in the shadow pricing literature dealing with project appraisal and cost‐benefit analysis. The main argument in this paper is that PCS would prove to be a better benchmark because it would facilitate the choice of decisions that would satisfy the criteria for sustainability. Second, the recognition PCS prompts the reassessment of comparisons with imperfect market organizations such as monopoly. Within an unregulated context, monopolies, if able to exploit economies of scale, can expand output beyond the limits dictated by PC and PCS and hence compromise the possibilities of sustainability. Finally, and more importantly, the introduction of PCS as a benchmark enables the exposition of voluntary stewardship as a potential measure towards sustainability.Originality/valueThe paper offers insights into PCS.

The Combined Application of WTP and WTA in Contingent Valuation Methods

The In most contingent valuation (CV) studies, WTP (Willingness to pay) and WTA (Willingness to accept) were often used separately, so protesting or no response or even babbling answers are increasing, and the debate persists over the reliability of CV in economic policy analysis. In order to improve the reliability of CV, WTP and WTA is used syn-chronously to estimate the restoration cost of Maqu grassland ecosystem. Data were partly from questionnaire survey, and partly from interviews and authorities. Before conclusions were derived, we assumed these data that came from interviews and authorities were right. The main result is: If we assumed that the degraded grassland of Maqu needs 10 years to be restored, and divided the restoring period into two stages, then the restoration cost was 0.85 × 108 RMB per year in former 4 years, 0.022 × 108 RMB per year in latter 6 years. The total cost of Maqu grassland restoration was 3.62 × 108 RMB. For all the costs of restoration, WTA occupied 94% and WTP only occupied 6%, suggesting that local grassland degradation was mainly caused by overgrazing and that the overloading livestock must be eliminated in order to achieve restoration successfully. Our research also showed that combining WTP and WTA in contingent valuation is very useful in estimating the cost of environmental improvement projects. Of course, whether these results are right or not, further researches are needed in the future, especially for the actual number of livestock in Maqu grassland.

Modeling the Impact of Warming in Climate Change Economics

Any economic analysis of climate change policy requires some model that describes the impact of warming on future GDP and consumption. Most integrated assessment models (IAMs) relate temperature to the level of real GDP and consumption, but there are theoretical and empirical reasons to expect temperature to affect the growth rate rather than level of GDP. Does this distinction matter in terms of implications for policy? And how does the answer depend on the nature and extent of uncertainty over future temperature change and its impact? I address these questions by estimating the fraction of consumption society would be willing to sacrifice to limit future increases in temperature, using probability distributions for temperature and impact inferred from studies assembled by the IPCC, and comparing estimates based on a direct versus growth rate impact of temperature on GDP.

The Left or the Right: Old Paradigms and New Governments

Classical paradigms characterize left-oriented governments as being more interventionist in the economy than right-oriented ones. Nevertheless, many factors have influenced economic policy changes in modern parties. The paper first gives a literary review of parties’ orientation towards intervention in the economy. Secondly, a comparative analysis of economic policies is done for selected developed economies, combining […]

Policy Evaluation in Multiagent Transport Simulations

In democratically organized societies, the implementation of measures with regressive effects on welfare distribution tends to be complicated because of low public acceptance. The microscopic multiagent simulation approach presented in this paper can help to design better solutions in such situations. Income can be included in utility calculations for a better understanding of problems linked to acceptability. This paper shows how the approach can be used in policy evaluation when income is included in user preferences. With the MATSim framework, the implementation is tested in a simple scenario. Furthermore the approach works in a large-scale, real-world example. On the basis of a hypothetical price and speed increase of public transit, effects on the welfare distribution of the population are discussed. This approach, in contrast with applied economic policy analysis, allows choice modeling and economic evaluation to be realized consistently.

Impacts of EU biofuels directives on global markets and EU environmental quality: An integrated PE, global CGE analysis

As policy makers become increasingly aware of the impact of their decisions on the global economy, as well as the impact of developments in the global economy on regional and national resource use, the demand for cross-scale analysis of economic and environmental policies has become a high priority. This paper contributes to this literature by developing a new methodology to link two widely used policy models in order to provide an integrated assessment of the environmental impacts of EU biofuels mandates. By combining the CAPRI model of EU agricultural production and resource use with the GTAP model of global trade and land use, we are able to estimate both the global impacts of EU biofuels policies as well as the detailed, regional changes in land use and nutrient surplus. The applicability of this combined modeling approach extends well beyond biofuels. It could offer important insights into the global impacts of EU agricultural policy reforms, as well as analysis of the EU-regional impacts of global agreements on trade policy or climate change mitigation. In short, the methodology developed in this paper holds great promise for future, cross-scale analysis of global issues bearing on agriculture, land use and the environment.

A healthy diet consistent with Australian health recommendations is too expensive for welfare‐dependent families

Examine the cost of healthy food habits for welfare-dependent families in Australia. A seven-day meal plan was developed, based on Australian public health recommendations, for two typical welfare-dependent families: a couple-family (two adults, two children) and a one-parent family (one adult, two children). The cost of the meal plan was calculated using market brand and generic brand grocery items, and total cost compared to income. In Australia, the cost of healthy food habits uses about 40% of the disposable income of welfare-dependent families. Families earning an average income would spend only 20% of their disposable income to buy the same healthy food. Substituting generic brands for market brands reduced the weekly food cost by about 13%. This is one of few economic models to include generic brands. Compared with average-income Australian families, healthy food habits are a fiscal challenge to welfare-dependent families. These results provide a benchmark for economic and social policy analysis, and the influence disposable income has on prioritising healthy food habits.

The 2008 Witch Model: New Model Features and Baseline

WITCH is an energy-economy-climate model developed by the climate change group at FEEM. The model has been extensively used in the past 3 years for the economic analysis of climate change policies. WITCH is a hybrid top-down economic model with a representation of the energy sector of medium complexity. Two distinguishing features of the WITCH model are the representation of endogenous technological change and the game–theoretic set-up. Technological change is driven by innovation and diffusion processes, both of which feature international spillovers. World countries are grouped in 12 regions which interact with each other in a setting of strategic interdependence. This paper describes the updating of the base year data to 2005 and some new features: the inclusion of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and abatement options, the new specification of low carbon technologies and the inclusion of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation.

A Methodology for the Economic Analysis of the Energy Efficiency Policy in the Republic of Bulgaria

The research goal of this paper is to develop a methodology for the assessment of the sustainability (in terms of overall welfare) and economic efficiency (in terms of Transaction Costs) of common Energy Efficiency (EE) policy instruments in the institutional context of Bulgaria as an economy in transition, in order to identify areas for EE policy improvements. A characteristic feature of economies in transition is their significant potential for economic development, which is closely linked to energy consumption. Yet, the technological equipment at their disposal is in a poor state, regarding its efficiency of functioning. This applies to the Republic of Bulgaria as well. The line of reasoning in this paper begins on the macro level with an analysis based on the Theory of Political Transformation. On the micro level, the Theory of New Institutional Economics (NIE) sets a framework for the assessment of the contribution of EE policy measures to the overall welfare optimum.

An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies

Most public policies, particularly those in the energy sphere, have not only efficiency but also distributional effects. However, there is a trade-off between modelling approaches suitable for calculating those impacts on the economy. For the former most of the studies have been conducted with general equilibrium models, whereas partial equilibrium models represent the main approach for distributional analysis. This paper proposes a methodology to simultaneously carry out an analysis of the distributional and efficiency consequences of changes in energy taxation. In order to do so, we have integrated a microeconomic household demand model and a computable general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy. We illustrate the advantages of this approach by simulating a revenue-neutral reform in Spanish indirect taxation, with a large increase of energy taxes that serve an environmental purpose. The results show that the reforms bring about significant efficiency and distributional effects, in some cases counterintuitive, and demonstrate the academic and social utility of this approximation.