Economic Policy Research Articles

Риски внедрения цифровых платформ как отраслевой аспект стратегирования

Even under the current foreign sanctions and external restrictions, Russia’s economic policy is aimed at industrial innovations. However, the ongoing digital transformation remains a serious challenge for timber enterprises: in fact, this industry demonstrates one of the lowest rates of digitalization. Digital transformation has both strategic advantages and strategic risks for such enterprises. If major business fails to consider these risks, the outcome can have long-term negative consequences. Effective strategizing of industrial enterprises needs special methods to identify, describe, and analyze strategic risks. The authors identified the strategic risks of digital transformation and summarized tools that could help timber and forestry enterprises to overcome them. The research relied on the theory and methodology of strategizing developed by Professor V.L. Kvint. According to this approach, a strategy does not identify problems: its main purpose is to identify opportunities, and opportunities always come with risks. The analysis systematized the general and specific features of ERP-systems and digital platforms as key elements of digital transformation. The article introduces opportunities and risks of digital transformation for timber industry enterprises, which must be taken into account by strategists. It also describes an automated process management model as a means of overcoming the risks.

The finance and growth nexus revisited: a truly Schumpeterian perspective

Abstract The nexus between the financial system and economic development is an issue that is as important for economic theory as it is for economic policy. This article provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the standard literature that uses Joseph A. Schumpeter as an academic patron. The starting point of our study is the theoretical finding that Schumpeter is misinterpreted in the finance and growth literature. We show that this leads to puzzling empirical results and difficulties in explaining even fundamental relationships. After a critical analysis of the literature, we provide our own empirical analysis using a panel of 43 countries to explore the relationships between finance and growth variables based on a truly Schumpeterian and thus monetary growth model. Our empirical analysis shows that (i) dynamic credit variables are better at describing the finance and growth nexus than static credit variables, (ii) as saving is not a prerequisite for credit, we do not find a statistically significant relationship between household saving and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and (iii) in line with the empirical literature, we find a bi-directional relationship between credit and GDP growth.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Index: Fresh Insights from Augmented-ARDL and Multiple Structural Breaks

This study provides unique insights into the link between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock market index in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Basically, the dearth of evidence in this perspective, especially in the context of SSA motivates this new assessment. Thus, on account of the monthly longitudinal series for 11 SSA countries over 2014M1–2023M6, the novel multiple structural break test in panel (MSBP) and cross-sectional ARDL (CS-ARDL) provide the following upshots: first, the high level of EPU worsens the region’s stock index in the short run; second, there is a long-term negative but insignificant effect of EPU on the stock index; third, EPU significantly reduces the stock index in the three identified structural break regimes, but outside it, it is insignificant; fourth, the devastating influence of EPU on stock prices is more pronounced during the COVID-19 era demonstrating that the response of the region’s stock market to EPU is highly sensitive to global shocks. The policy implication from the major findings is for the government authorities to put up plans that can strengthen the stock markets’ resilience to economic policy-induced uncertainty.

How do oil price uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty influence achievement of net-zero emissions targets by 2050? A quantile-based analysis

ABSTRACT Governments globally have prioritized carbon neutrality and reduction as a response to the intensifying menace of climate change. These objectives align with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDG-13), stressing the imperative to take decisive action on climate change. Thus, this study aimed to assess the impact of oil price uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, financial development, and renewable energy on ecological proxies (CO2 emissions, Ecological footprint, and Load capacity factor) using quarterly data spanning from 1990 to 2019. As far as the investigators are aware, this is the first empirical analysis examining the impact of oil price uncertainty on ecological quality. To achieve this, we employed advanced techniques, including quantile-on-quantile KRLS (QQKRLS) and quantile-on-quantile Granger causality (QQGC), to analyse the interconnections among these variables. The findings based on the load capacity factor exposed that renewable energy, economic policy uncertainty, financial development, and economic growth positively contribute to ecological quality, whereas oil price uncertainty has a detrimental effect. Additionally, as a measure of robustness, CO2 emissions and ecological footprint were included in the analysis, demonstrating comparable outcomes when assessed alongside the load capacity factor model. Furthermore, QQGC results demonstrated that all regressors significantly forecast ecological quality. Drawing from the findings, policy interventions ought to prioritize incentivizing the adoption of renewable energy, mitigating economic policy uncertainty, fostering financial development, and stimulating economic growth as pivotal strategies for augmenting ecological quality. Furthermore, integrating measures to alleviate oil price uncertainty stands as a crucial imperative for ensuring environmental sustainability.

Leveraging Waste Recycling as a Gateway to a Green Economy in Nigeria

The call for a transition to a green economy has been a recurring issue in Nigeria for over a decade. However, there was limited focus on the relationship between waste recycling and the green economy in previous studies. This study explores the nexus between waste recycling and the green economy, examining how waste recycling can be leveraged to foster a green economy in Nigeria. A descriptive qualitative approach was used, and relevant literature from secondary data sources and context were analyzed. The results indicate that waste recycling has not been fully embraced in Nigeria, especially at the household level. Therefore, waste recycling is primarily driven by the informal sector and entrepreneurs. Furthermore, the study reveals the diverse opportunities available through implementing a green economy. It recommends a green economy policy that promotes equity, economic incentives for household waste recycling, and support for entrepreneurs interested in partnering with the government.

Spillover impacts of financial development and globalization on environmental quality in ASEAN countries

In the globalization era, the economic policy of a specific country might be influenced by the development of neighboring countries. Thus, this study aims to probe the direct and spillover effects of financial development, economic growth, and globalization on environmental sustainability in ASEAN countries during the period of 1992-2021. By applying three spatial regression models, the results are summarized: (1) There are positive spillover effects of financial development in neighboring countries on ecological footprint in a particular country; (2) Economic growth has a positive impact on ecological deficits in both the host country and neighboring countries in the short-run; (3) The expansion of globalization in neighboring countries has a negative spillover effect on the ecological footprint in a particular country and vice versa. Based on these findings, the study recommends that when a country formulates its economic policies, it is necessary to calculate the impact of that policy on neighboring countries and vice versa. Encouraging economic growth and expanding the money supply ought to go hand in hand with fostering greater integration. This integration is essential to counterbalance the potential adverse effects of these macroeconomic variables on environmental quality and ecological balance.

Current Status of and Suggestions on Sewage Treatment Fees in China

China’s sewage treatment standards have been gradually improving, yet there is a widening gap between sewage treatment fees and actual costs. This discrepancy, where the fees for sewage treatment are lower than the actual operational expenses, poses a significant bottleneck to the sustainable development of China’s sewage treatment industry. As a core aspect of environmental economic policies, sewage treatment fees are pivotal in regulating water pollution emissions and addressing water resource shortages. Currently, there are major issues with sewage treatment fees, including an incomplete pricing system, insufficient fees, unclear fee distribution, and a heavy reliance on local finances. These problems impede systematic planning, diminish management efficiency, and hinder the sustainable development of the sewage treatment industry. Thus, future research efforts should prioritize the establishment of a pricing mechanism that comprehensively covers the full cost of sewage treatment. This article presents a concise summary and review of the current situation, types of fee collection, cost accounting methodologies, challenges, and proposed countermeasures for sewage treatment fees, and could serve as a relevant reference for future research on sewage treatment fees. By comprehensively addressing these issues, the sewage treatment industry would progress towards healthier and more sustainable development, ultimately achieving the goal of green growth.

The impact of geopolitical risks, financial stress, economic policy uncertainty on African stock markets returns and volatilities: wavelet coherence analysis

PurposeThis study seeks to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shock indicators, namely geopolitical risk (GPR), global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and financial stress (FS), and returns as well as volatilities on seven carefully selected stock markets in Africa. Specifically, the study intends to unravel the co-movement and interdependence between the respective macroeconomic shock indicators and each of the stock markets under consideration across time and frequency.Design/methodology/approachThis study employed wavelet coherence approach to examine the strength and stability of the relationships across different time scales and frequency components, thereby providing valuable insights into specific periods and frequency ranges where the relationships are particularly pronounced.FindingsThe study found that GEPU, Financial Stress (FS) and GPR failed to induce significant influence on African stock market returns in the short term (0–4 months band), but tend to intensify in the long-term band (after 6th month). On the contrary, stock market volatilities exhibited strong coherence and interdependence with GEPU, FSI and GPR in the short-term band.Originality/valueThis study happens to be the first of its kind to comprehensively consider how the aforementioned macro-economic shock indicators impact stock markets returns and volatilities over time and frequency. Further, none of the earlier studies has attempted to examine the relationship between macro-economic shocks, stock returns and volatilities in different crisis periods. This study is the first of its kind in to employ data spanning from May 2007 to April 2023, thereby covering notable crisis periods such as global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic episodes.

Human resources in dentistry geographical distribution in Brazil and Colombia: Comparative analysis from the perspective of historical institutionalism

The Human Resource in Health constitutes one of the six core components of health systems, playing a crucial role in realizing the right to health and ensuring access and service quality. Additionally, institutional frameworks within each country, encompassing laws, decrees, political systems, and health system characteristics, exert a significant influence on HRH and, specifically, in Human Resources in Dentistry (HRD). Both Brazil and Colombia experienced neoliberal reforms in the 1990s, introducing new institutions within the existing model and altering the social, political, and economic dynamics of each country. This study aims to examine the impact of institutional arrangements stemming from the 1990s neoliberal reforms in Brazil and Colombia on HRDs, focusing on geographic distribution. Employing a comparative analysis and adopting a historical institutionalism perspective, the research relies on a methodology involving multiple case studies with embedded units. Results reveal that the neoliberal reforms represented critical junctures reshaping the social and economic policies of both nations. In this context, the reforms influenced wealth distribution in both countries, subsequently impacting the unequal geographical distribution of HRD. These effects were closely tied to factors such as labor flexibility and the unregulated, unplanned expansion of dentistry courses. These elements initiated positive feedback loops, characterized by path dependence and increasing returns, which have contributed to the institutionalization and persistence of these phenomena within the state and have become entrenched in HRDs over time.

The Manufacturing Reshoring Phenomenon: A Policy-Oriented Analysis of Factors Driving the Location Decision

For several decades, multinational enterprises (MNEs) have offshored their manufacturing activities to low-cost countries to achieve significant productivity gains. However, changes in the relative competitiveness of countries, social effects of deindustrialization in advanced economies and the vulnerability of global value chains (GVCs) revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic have encouraged some firms, supported by governments, to “reshore” part, or all of their offshore industrial operations back to their home country. Reshoring decisions are motivated by a variety of endogenous and exogenous factors that are empirically analyzed in this paper to understand how reshoring policies implemented by governments can more effectively address the factors driving the firms’ location decisions. A review of the reshoring policies implemented in Europe, the UK and the US is conducted to provide general policy recommendations regarding policy instruments, SMEs, innovation and regionalization of value chains. This paper fills a gap in the literature by connecting the micro-level supply chain management analysis of firms’ reshoring drivers with the macro-level economic policy perspective on reshoring. The review of existing reshoring policies calls for an in-depth analysis by the manufacturing sector and at the local level.

Uncertainty and cryptocurrency returns: A lesson from turbulent times

This paper explores the interplay between economic uncertainty and cryptocurrency behaviour. Using data spanning from April 2018 to December 2022, we examine the relationship between ten major cryptocurrencies and a repertoire of uncertainty measures covering geopolitical events, economic policy, and commodity, equity, and bond markets. Cryptocurrency returns exhibit dynamic and positive correlation with stock market and oil volatility, but no significant association with other uncertainty proxies. In terms of volatility spillovers, the transmission from uncertainty indices to cryptocurrency markets is weak, but intensifies during turbulent periods such as the COVID-19 outbreak or the Ukraine war. Overall, while the pricing of cryptocurrencies remains largely disconnected from economic risks, there are doubts cast on their alleged ‘safe haven’ properties.

Exploring the asymmetric influence of economic policy uncertainty on the nonlinear relationship between exchange rate and carbon prices in China

Our objective is to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the risk spillover effect between exchange rates and carbon prices. First, we employ the time-varying parametric vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) method to assess the dynamic nonlinear risk spillover effect between four exchange rates and China's carbon price for the period from September 2, 2013, to April 29, 2022. Our findings reveal a significant time-varying spillover effect between exchange rates and carbon prices. Among them, carbon prices and the EUR/CNY exchange rate predominantly act as risk contributors, and a pronounced correlation is observed among various exchange rates. Furthermore, the magnitude of risk spillover and interdependence intensifies significantly in response to major events. Second, we employ quantile-to-quantile regression (QQR) to examine the impact of EPU on risk spillover. Our results indicate that the influence of EPU on risk spillover exhibits is characterized by marked asymmetry and heterogeneity. At high levels of EPU, EPU has a substantial positive impact on risk spillover. However, when the risk spillover is already elevated, the effect of EPU tends to diminish. Based on these findings, we propose several policy recommendations, including prudent treatment of exchange rate adjustments, fostering stability in carbon prices, and the enactment of robust economic policies.

Морально-этический контекст русской социально-экономической мысли

For many centuries in the history of our Fatherland, the question of spiritual and moral values has been one of the most important in Russian socio-economic thought. Discussing this issue essentially led scholars, public figures, and thinkers to address the crucial problem of the significance of these values in the life of our compat-riots in the context of entrepreneurial practice and the development of economic policy. It is noteworthy that in Russian economic thought, spiritual and moral values were postulated as the bond of the entire nation and a means of addressing issues of social justice; Russian scholars consider them as a vital component of the Rus-sian cultural code. Within the framework of this study, the author examines such spiritual and moral categories as human rights and freedoms, patriotism, citizenship, dignity, humanism, mercy, and other significant tradi-tional values. By integrating these values into economic policies and entrepreneurial practices, Russia can fos-ter a more equitable and sustainable development path. Moving forward, further research is needed to explore the practical implications of moral-ethical principles for addressing modern socio-economic challenges and advancing the common good.

The spatial effect of integrated economy on carbon emissions in the era of big data: a case study of China

The digital economy has the characteristics of resource conservation, which can solve China’s high carbon emissions problems. The digital economy can quickly integrate with the real economy, forming an integrated economy. However, it is still unclear whether an integrated economy can effectively reduce carbon emissions and achieve China’s ‘dual carbon goals’. Therefore, this study takes 30 provinces in China as the research object, constructs the integration economy index system through the statistical data from 2011-2021, and explores the spatial effect of the impact of the integration economy on carbon emissions by using principal component analysis, coupled coordination model and spatial econometric model. The research results are as follows. (1) From 2011 to 2021, the comprehensive economy showed a trend of increasing yearly (from 0.667 to 0.828), and carbon emissions showed a slow decrease (from 0.026 to 0.017). (2) Due to the infiltration of China’s economic development from the eastern to the western, the spatial distribution of the integrated economy shows a decreasing trend from east to west. The spatial distribution of carbon emissions may be related to China’s industrial layout of heavy industry in the northern, and light industry in the southern, showing a trend of low in the south and high in the north. (3) The integrated economy can significantly reduce carbon emissions (the coefficients of influence, -0.146), and the reduction effect will be more obvious if spatial spillover effects are taken into account (-0.305). (4) The eastern coast, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the middle reaches of the Yellow River economic zones all increase carbon emissions at a certain level of significance (0.065, 0.148, and 3.890). The Northeast, South Coastal and Southwest economic zones significantly reduce carbon emissions (-0.220, -0.092, and -0.308). The results of the Northern Coast and Northwest are not significant (-0.022 and 0.095). (5) China should tailor regional economic development policies, such as strengthening investment in digital infrastructure in the Northwest Economic Zone and fully leveraging the spatial spillover effects of integrated economy in the Northeast, Southern Coastal, and Southwest Economic Zones to reduce carbon emissions.

Factors affecting the volatility of bitcoin prices

To explore the impact of factors from the traditional financial market, such as economic policy uncertainty, oil prices, the NASDAQ index, and gold prices, to identify factors contributing to Bitcoin volatility. This study uses traditional OLS (ordinary least squares) regression analysis to examine how different external factors affect Bitcoin price volatility from January 2014 to March 2023. By employing a comprehensive approach to recognize the distinctive characteristics of the Bitcoin market, namely, 24-hour trading and the short duration of its existence, we’ve included a wide spectrum of data to ensure a cohesive comparison with other financial datasets. The findings of the statistical analysis indicate that EPU and the NASDAQ index promote positive fluctuations in Bitcoin volatility, whereas gold prices act as a dampener. Conversely, we do not find empirical support for the influence of energy prices, such as oil, on Bitcoin volatility. These findings indicate that we should not undervalue Bitcoin in any financial transaction scenario. It means that all stakeholders should treat the issue of Bitcoin volatility more seriously, even including governments, who should actively regulate the Bitcoin market, and investors, who should recognize the dangers of this volatility, make rational decisions based on individual circumstances, and employ flexible trading strategies.

Professional experience of CEOs in industry associations and corporate green innovation-empirical evidence from China

This paper provides a theoretical explanation for how the professional experience of CEOs in industry associations impacts corporate green innovation, with data on the professional experience of CEOs in industry associations collected manually to perform an empirical analysis on the annual observation data of Chinese listed companies from 2007 to 2021. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the professional experience of CEOs in industry associations and corporate green innovation, and this positive correlation is more significant in regions with higher levels of institutional development and enterprises with CEOs with professional experience in industry associations with higher administrative levels and CEOs with experience of green innovation. Tests of action mechanisms have further verified that the professional experience of CEOs in industry associations is conducive to shaping environmental awareness and ethics and alleviating perceived uncertainty of economic policies and financing restrictions, thus promoting green innovation activities among enterprises.

IS DE-DOLLARIZATION INEVITABLE?

Relying on relevant studies of internationally recognized economists, using content analysis, synthesis, and comparison methods, we monitor the process of de-dollarization, i.e. phenomenon of establishing a new balance of power in the global financial order. The main intention of the work is to project future directions of international monetary policy by pointing out the institutional and other barriers to the internationalization of the main contender for the status of global currency — the Chinese renminbi. The aim of the work is to provide guidelines to the creators of domestic economic policy in the context of the increased importance of non-Western currencies, and consequently, the need to rebalance the foreign exchange reserves and create the necessary infrastructure for the increased use of the Chinese currency on the domestic foreign exchange market. We conclude that despite a certain weakening of the global importance of the US currency — especially from the beginning of 2022 — the process of dedollarization is in its initial phase, and that could last for decades. Namely, in order to form a multilateral currency system, taking into account the current hegemonic status of the dollar, a substantial increase in the use of other currencies is necessary. This applies to world trade crediting, where the greatest, but still limited, progress of the yuan is seen, but also to the other domains such as the allocation of central bank’s foreign exchange reserves, the securities’ denomination, and the invoicing of financial transactions in bilateral trade and other arrangements.

Foreign Direct Investment, Export and Economic Growth: An Evidence from Nepal

The aim of this paper is to analyze and evaluate the present status of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nepal concentrating economic growth and export boost. Developing nations like Nepal derive significant advantages from foreign investment, fostering economic advancement through the attraction of external capital, entrepreneurial skills, expanding market spaces, and technology transfer. Nepal has witnessed an upsurge in FDI since the 1990s, primarily attributable to the implementation of liberal economic policies by the government. The enactment of the Foreign Investment Technology Transfer Act (FITTA) has further sustained the investment environment in Nepal. This paper analyzes and evaluates the role of FDI in driving Nepal's economic growth and export activities. Employing correlation analysis and an ordinary linear regression model, the impact of FDI on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and exports is measured. Given the documented FDI inflows since the 1990s, this research concentrates on the period from 2010/11 to 2022/23 to measure FDI's impact. The findings of this investigation reveal a positive correlation between FDI, GDP and the country's export growth.

Digitalization era: Investigating the spatial interplay between cyber human activity and economy with a hierarchical framework

The development of Information and Communication Technology has shifted human activity from offline to online, and promoted digital economy. These changes challenge traditional methodologies relying on physical human activity as a micro-level reflection of the macro-level economy. To address this, a hierarchical framework is proposed to characterize cyber human activity, incorporating activity diversity, size, and preference. Then, Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression models are used to examine the spatial interplay between cyber human activity and township-level economy. K-Medoids clustering is further applied to coefficients in cyber GWR model to reveal mechanisms influencing local economies. Taking diverse geospatial data in Jilin Province, China as an example, the result indicates that the significant extreme values of cyber human activity have divided Jilin Province into four subregions, closely aligning with local economic segmentation. Moreover, the local economy can be better reflected by cyber human activity rather than physical ones, especially in highly digitized regions. Furthermore, the regions with similar influence mechanisms cluster geographically. These clusters are categorized into three types, namely, dynamics, robust, and balanced, representing different mechanisms influencing the local economy. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed, including using cyber human activity in assessing the economy and implementing adaptable economic policies at township level.

Incorporating resource optimization for sustainable airline service innovation business decision model: toward circular economy policy achievement

Incorporating resource optimization for sustainable airline service innovation business decision model: toward circular economy policy achievement