Economic Model Research Articles

Model of nonlinear dynamics of development of multicomponent manufacturing enterprises, taking into account the effect of investment lag

The published article proposes a generalization of the economic and mathematical model of the dynamics of development of a multi-industry enterprise, the resources of each production of which are restored by introducing internal lagging investments. The model of such a multi-industry enterprise is presented in the form of systems of coupled differential equations with respect to production factors. It is established that the marginal values of production factors are stationary solutions of systems of differential equations. It is shown that the most efficient operation of the considered multi-industry enterprise will be achieved only when the marginal values of production factors coincide with the values of the resources used, which correspond to the maximum values of profit for each production component. For a two-component production enterprise, calculation models of output, costs and profit for each component and for the entire enterprise are constructed. Numerical solutions of the corresponding system of differential equations are given, on the basis of which integral curves are constructed for production factors, output and profit for each component of the enterprise and for the entire enterprise as a whole.

The Impact of Local Debt on the High-Quality Development of the Local Economy

China has entered a new stage of economic development, with the economic growth model transforming from the pursuit of “quantity” to an emphasis on “quality”. The economic structure undergoing a continuous process of optimization and adjustment, and the pace of transformation of the economic growth rate accelerating significantly. As an important way of local government financing, local debt is facing a serious imbalance between revenue and expenditure, which poses a substantial challenge to the realization of high-quality economic development in China. This paper adopts a panel data regression analysis framework for the relationship between local debt and high-quality economic development in 30 provinces and cities nationwide during the period from 2017 to 2023. The findings show that the expansion of local government debt scale hinders the process of scientific and technological innovation to a certain extent, which in turn weakens its positive effect on the high-quality development of the economy. In addition, local debt also indirectly contributes to the level of high-quality economic development by profoundly affecting the degree of openness to the outside world. Based on this, this paper puts forward a series of targeted policy recommendations for the current situation of local debt.

Cash flow modeling in the open innovation market system

The process of innovation activity is considered from the point of view of agency presence. The open innovation market system is described, including an investor, a developer and a user. The cash flows between the specified agents of the system, arising in the process of creating and commercializing an innovative product, are considered. For each agent, a profit function has been developed, which is a criterion for its optimal activity. An economic and mathematical model has been developed that describes the interaction of agents in the system.

A US payer budget impact analysis of Flurpiridaz-PET-MPI compared to SPECT-MPI in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease

Aims This economic model was developed to assess the budget impact of a novel radiotracer, Flurpiridaz (F18-PET-MPI), compared to SPECT-MPI from a US payer perspective. Materials and Methods The model was developed comparing F18-PET-MPI and SPECT-MPI, with F18-PET-MPI modality share increasing from 0.5% to 2.5% of the total MPI modality share, over a 5-year time horizon. The model estimates the impact of diagnostic performance on downstream healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) including invasive coronary angiography (ICA), revascularization, pharmacological treatment, and cardiac outcomes (CO) such as cardiac mortality (CM) and myocardial infarction (MI). Four suspected CAD populations, including general and difficult-to-image subgroups, were analyzed. Clinical inputs used to support the parameterization of the model were sourced from a systematic literature search and included claims-based real-world evidence, observational, and multicenter registry studies to inform the rates of HCRU and CO, and head-to-head comparative clinical trial data advised diagnostic performance inputs. Reimbursement codes informed MPI modality costs. Results are reported as per-member per-month (PMPM) based on a hypothetical health plan. Results In all suspected CAD populations analyzed, there was a nominal cost increase in the world with F18-PET-MPI. The 5-year average PMPM incremental budget impact ranged from $0.02 to $0.05 across all suspected CAD subgroups. Cost-savings were associated with decreased downstream CO such as CM, MI, and ICA. Limitations and Conclusion The available literature to source all parameters in the model was limited; therefore, assumptions and additional calculations were made based on published evidence to inform the model. A one-way sensitivity analysis was performed to confirm and address uncertainty in key parameters. This comprehensive analysis illustrates that the superior diagnostic performance of F18-PET-MPI may result in reduced adverse CO events and associated costs, increased appropriate identification and treatment of CAD, and a minimal increase in overall costs among general and difficult-to-image patient subgroups.

Connecting the Computer Skills with General Performance of Companies—An Eastern European Study

In the current era, the economic model that measures the dependence of the training offered by companies to their employees on certain variables allows for identifying the steps taken on account of digital transformations, given the fact that companies want to be competitive, to develop sustainably and the positive effect to it spreads globally. However, how digital transformation contributes remains unclear in both the literature and practice. Five descriptors of information on the economy in relation to the digital economy were extracted from the Eurostat database, and data on eight Eastern European countries in the period 2012–2020 served as primary data in the analysis. A generalized linear model was used as a statistical tool to infer the data series. Following the statistical regression analysis, it was found that the variable measuring the share of companies that offered training for the development/improvement of information and communication technology (ICT) skills is influenced by the combined effect of several other variables: ‘country’, ‘country × year’, ‘country × share of ICT personnel in total employees’, year × “share of ICT sector in GDP”. Based on the results, we noticed that the studied countries are included in two groups with distinct features, which influence the obtained GLZ model, showing the increase in the dependency effect or, on the contrary, the decrease in this effect.

Valuing behavioral interventions for obesity reduction: A scoping review of economic models

SummaryPolicymakers require health economic modeling to guide their decision‐making over the choice of interventions for obesity. This scoping review was undertaken to report on the health economic models in use for estimating the value of behavioral interventions (individual or population level) for obesity reduction. Electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, EconLit, and Web of Science) were searched for publications meeting inclusion criteria from January 2015 to May 2023. Seventy‐three studies were included, using 44 health economic models between them. When considered against the expert recommendations for modeling of this type, only four models (9%) met all five key elements. The element most commonly unfulfilled was the use of a microsimulation modeling approach (41%, n = 18), followed by model validation (46%, n = 20). A majority of models met each of the other elements: use of a lifetime horizon (59%, n = 26), inclusion of key health events (66%, n = 29), and a risk equation approach to event simulation (71%, n = 31). In addition, under half of the studies considered health inequalities in their reporting. Continued proliferation of models with inadequate time horizons, breadth of obesity‐related health conditions, and perspectives on costs and outcomes risks underestimation of the benefits of longer term interventions and impacts on health inequalities.

Legal Support of Media Security and Cognitive Sovereignty: Challenges of Social Engineering, Hybrid Wars and Web 3.0 Mechanisms (Part 1)

The paper considers the main technologies (including socio-humanitarian ones) that pose challenges to ensure the security of communication in the Internet environment and require the development of new regulatory models. The correlation and interrelationships of the concepts of information, information[1]psychological, reputational and media security; information and cognitive sovereignty; information, cognitive and hybrid warfare; the phenomenon of «soft power», «sociological propaganda», which is important for the unification of the terminological apparatus in this area, are considered. For the first time, from the point of view of jurisprudence, the concept of cognitive sovereignty is comprehensively considered and its components are characterized, including media security, cultural sovereignty, technological sovereignty, managerial sovereignty, and legal security. The research section devoted to the comprehensive consideration of the phenomenon of social engineering is also new, not only as a set of methods of psychological influence aimed at obtaining unauthorized access to data, but also as other complexes of socio-humanitarian technologies for managing meanings, methods and techniques of information and psychological influence on human behavior. The place of legal social engineering in the system of social engineering is considered and the role of the lawyer-strategist (lawyer-lawmaker) is justified as a social engineer who develops models for rationing not only current, but also emerging, predictable social relations. An analysis of the development of cyberspace from the point of view of the concept «Web 1.0 — Web 2.0 — Web 3.0 — Web 3» made it possible, firstly, to develop an author’s feature model of various «types» (stages) of the development of the Internet environment and, secondly, to identify challenges to the law caused by the need to ensure media security and cognitive sovereignty, and also the adaptation of new economic models.

Side-by-Side Economic Process Model for the Comparison and Evaluation of Magnetic Bead-Based Processes and Legacy Process for the Manufacturing of Monoclonal Antibodies

This study models two alternative downstream processes based on magnetic separation with the objective of understanding the economic feasibility of these processes compared to the traditional mAb process. The key focus lies in the economic understanding of the cell harvest and capture steps in the models. Here, the models revealed that integrating cell removal and product capture in a single operation is the main factor driving the unified productivity between USP and the magnetic bead-based processes. This results in significant economic benefits, such as savings in both the cost of goods per gram of mAb and fixed costs, as well as increasing annual facility output. The predicted savings potential approaches 38% for COGs, 17% for capital investment, and 40% for annual facility output. For mammalian cell-based manufacturing, the magnetic separation-based DSP provides a highly valuable option due to its integration of several individual unit operations compared to the traditional process both in reducing process time and cost and accommodating higher demands.

Unravelling the Association Between Uncertainties in Model-based Economic Analysis and Funding Recommendations of Medicines in Australia.

Health technology assessment is used extensively by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) to inform medicine funding recommendations in Australia. The PBAC often does not recommend medicines due to uncertainties in economic modelling that result in delaying access to medicines for patients. The systematic identification of which uncertainties can be reduced with alternative evidence or the collection of additional data can help inform recommendations. This study aims to characterise different types of uncertainty in economic models and empirically assess their association with the PBAC recommendations. A framework was developed to characterise four types of uncertainties: methodological, structural, generalisability and parameter uncertainty. The first two types were further subcategorised into parameterisable and unparameterisable uncertainty. Data on uncertainty and other factors were extracted from PBAC's Public Summary Documents of first submissions for 193 medicine (vaccine)-indication pairs including economic modelling between 2014 and 2021. Logistic regression was used to estimate the average marginal effect of each type of uncertainty on the probability of a positive recommendation. The PBAC more often raised issues regarding parameter uncertainty (95%) and parameterisable structural uncertainty (83%) than generalisability uncertainty (48%) and unparameterisable methodological uncertainty (56%). The logistic regression results suggested that the PBAC was more likely to recommend a medicine without unparameterisable methodological, generalisability, and parameterisable structural uncertainty by 15.0%, 10.2 %, and 17.6%, respectively. Parameterisable methodological, unparameterisable structural and parameter uncertainty were not significantly associated with the PBAC recommendations. This study identified the uncertainties that had significant associations with PBAC recommendations based on the first submission. This may help improve model quality and reduce resubmissions in the future, thus improving patients' access to medicines.

Empirical Study on the Promotion of Industrial Structure Upgrading by Aviation Economy: A Case Study of National Airport Economic Zones

With the rapid growth of civil aviation and economic integration, aviation economic zones centered on large airports have a significant economic impact on surrounding areas. These zones foster the concentration of technology, capital, and labor, leading to the emergence of new regional economic models. This research, based on data from 17 national-level aviation economic demonstration zones, develops an evaluation index system for aviation economic development and constructs a regression model incorporating industrial structure coefficients. It empirically analyzes the relationship between the development of aviation economy and the upgrading of industrial structure in cities with national-level aviation economic zones, revealing the aviation economy’s role in promoting industrial structure upgrading and providing policy recommendations for regional economic innovation.

“Czechia Team”. Economic diplomacy of the Czech Republic in the face of global challenges

The purpose of this article is to show the evolution of the Czech Republic’s economic diplomacy model from the systemic transformation in the 1990s to the present day. Using a case study and descriptive analysis method, the author analysed government documents shaping foreign policy and the state’s pro-export strategy. The economic conditions and the will of policymakers, who understood the need to take measures to support Czech exports and create an integrated system of economic diplomacy, were taken as the starting point for the considerations undertaken. In addition, it was necessary to find an answer to the question of the determinants that caused the modification of objectives and the introduction of a component of scientific diplomacy and development aid and led to measures for the territorial diversification of exports of goods and Czech investments towards non-European markets. The Czech Republic is the best-industrialised country in Central and Eastern Europe, a stable and open-to-the-world economy, focused on the markets of the European Union countries with ambitions to inspire technology and innovation in industry. Additional analysis of the research material, found on the websites and portals of state institutions and specialised agencies, allows us to conclude that the hallmark of the Czech model of economic diplomacy is its ability to respond quickly to crisis situations such as COVID-19 as well as its transparency, including in the sphere of spending funds, and its commendable use of digital diplomacy, including social media, to conduct outreach and promotional activities.

Reward deprivation is associated with elevated alcohol demand in emerging adults.

Policies vary substantially in terms of providing sources of psychosocial enrichment. Behavioral economic models of substance use and addiction emphasize that deficits in access to substance-free sources of reward increase substance reinforcing value and risk for addiction. The current study used an alcohol demand curve approach to test the hypothesis that various indices of reward deprivation would be associated with elevated alcohol reinforcing efficacy. We examined associations between alcohol demand indices and several facets of reward deprivation in a sample of young adults (N = 1,331; ages 19-25 years) recruited from the United States and Canada who reported recent binge drinking. Additionally, we created an index of cumulative reward deprivation that integrated the various reward facets and examined its association with alcohol demand intensity and maximum expenditure on alcohol. Our findings indicate that reward deprivation is associated with elevated alcohol demand and provide support for alcohol prevention and intervention approaches that emphasize environmental enrichment.

Economic evaluation of the Liverpool heart failure virtual ward model.

A virtual ward (VW) supports patients who would otherwise need hospitalisation by providing acute care, remote monitoring, investigations, and treatment at home. By March 2024 the VW programme had treated 10 950 patients across six speciality VWs, including heart failure (HF). This evaluation presents the economic assessment of the Liverpool HF VW. A comprehensive economic cost comparison model was developed by York Health Economics Consortium (University of York) to compare the costs of the VW to standard hospital inpatient care (SC). The model included direct VW costs and additional costs across the care pathway. Costs and resource use for 648 patients admitted to the HF VW were calculated for 30 days post discharge and total cohort costs were extrapolated to a full year. Primary outcomes included costs related to length of stay, readmissions, and NHS 111 contact. The total cost for the HF VW pathway, including set-up costs, was £467 524. This results in an incremental net cost benefit of £735 512 compared to the total SC cost of £1 203 036, indicating a substantial net cost benefit of £1 135 per patient per episode (PPPE). This advantage remains despite initial setup expenses and ongoing costs such as home visits, virtual consultations, point-of-care (POC) testing and home monitoring equipment. Our HF VW model offers a substantial net cost benefit, driven by reduced hospital stays, fewer emergency department visits, and lower readmission rates. The study highlights the importance of considering system-wide impacts and continuous monitoring of VWs as they develop.

How to make land use policy decisions: Integrating science and economics to deliver connected climate, biodiversity, and food objectives

Land use change is crucial to addressing the existential threats of climate change and biodiversity loss while enhancing food security [M. Zurek et al., Science 376, 1416-1421 (2022)]. The interconnected and spatially varying nature of the impacts of land use change means that these challenges must be addressed simultaneously [H.-O. Pörtner et al., Science 380, eabl4881 (2023)]. However, governments commonly focus on single issues, incentivizing land use change via "Flat-Rate" subsidies offering constant per hectare payments, uptake of which is determined by the economic circumstances of landowners rather than the integrated environmental outcomes that will be delivered [G. Q. Bull et al., Forest Policy Econ. 9, 13-31 (2006)]. Here, we compare Flat-Rate subsidies to two alternatives: "Land Use Scenario" allocation of subsidies through consultation across stakeholders and interested parties; and a "Natural Capital" approach which targets subsidies according to expected ecosystem service response. This comparison is achieved by developing a comprehensive decision support system, integrating new and existing natural, physical, and economic science models to quantify environmental, agricultural, and economic outcomes. Applying this system to the United Kingdom's net zero commitment to increase carbon storage via afforestation, we show that the three approaches result in significantly different outcomes in terms of where planting occurs, their environmental consequences, and economic costs and benefits. The Flat-Rate approach actually increases net carbon emissions while Land Use Scenario allocation yields poor economic outcomes. The Natural Capital targeted approach outperforms both alternatives, providing the highest possible social values while satisfying net zero commitments.

Income convergence clubs in the Eurozone: a tale beyond the core/periphery divide

Purpose This paper aims to examine income convergence among the Euro members from 1995 to 2021. Design/methodology/approach This study uses Phillips and Sul’s test (2007, 2009) extended by Lyncker and Thoennessen’s (2017) algorithm jointly with β and σ – convergence analysis and a traditional growth equation. Findings This analysis identifies three clubs of countries in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita with notable disparities between and within them, which implies that the theory of optimal currency areas has not been fulfilled. Originality/value These results rule out the core/periphery divide as presented in the literature to date. Finally, by estimating an endogenous economic growth model, this study finds the primary factors underpinning the differences between the three stationary states: labor productivity, physical and human capital, investment and international trade.

Relaxed optimal control problem for a finite horizon G-SDE with delay and its application in economics

This paper investigates the existence of a G-relaxed optimal control of a controlled stochastic differential delay equation driven by G-Brownian motion (G-SDDE in short). First, we show that optimal control of G-SDDE exists for the finite horizon case. We present as an application of our result an economic model, which is represented by a G-SDDE, where we studied the optimisation of this model. We connected the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation of our controlled system to a decoupled G-forward backward stochastic differential delay equation (G-FBSDDE in short). Finally, we simulate this G-FBSDDE to get the optimal strategy and cost.

Economic impact of innovative entrepreneurship education: Dynamic modelling methods

AbstractThis paper aims to explore the economic impact of innovative entrepreneurship education and proposes a dynamic modelling method to quantify this impact. The paper establishes a theoretical analysis framework, starting from the effects of innovative entrepreneurship education on the regional economy, and establishes a corresponding dynamic economic model. This model comprises processes such as variable definition, relationship establishment, parameter setting and architecture construction. Different levels of education and forms of innovative entrepreneurship education were experimentally analysed from multiple perspectives. In the comparative experiment between innovative entrepreneurship education and traditional education, the entrepreneurial intention score of the innovative entrepreneurship education group was scattered in the range of 90–100, higher than the 60–80 score of the traditional education group. In the experimental survey on investment return rates of different forms of innovative entrepreneurship education, it was found that the investment return rate of education was the lowest, only 6.82%, and the return rate of entrepreneurship competition was the highest, reaching 9.19%. The experimental results have proven a positive correlation between innovative entrepreneurship education and economic growth. It is suggested that the government and enterprises should increase their investment in innovative entrepreneurship education to promote sustainable economic development.

Review of Economic, Technical and Environmental Aspects of Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicles (EVs) have seen significant advancements and mainstream adoption, prompting in-depth analysis of their economic, technical, and environmental impacts. Economically, while EVs offer lower operational costs than internal combustion engine vehicles, challenges remain, particularly for urban users reliant on public charging stations and the potential implementation of new road taxes to offset declining fuel tax revenues. Technically, electric motors in EVs have fewer moving parts, but battery management and cybersecurity complexities pose new risks. Transitioning from Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt (NMC) to Lithium-Iron-Phosphate (LFP) batteries reflects efforts to enhance thermal stability and mitigate fire hazards. Environmentally, lithium extraction for batteries has profound ecological impacts, including for water consumption and pollution. Battery production and the carbon footprint of the entire lifecycle remain pressing concerns, with battery recycling and second-life applications as crucial mitigation strategies. Smart integration of EVs with the energy infrastructure introduces challenges like grid stability and opportunities, such as smart, intelligent, innovative charging solutions and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology. Future research should develop economic models to forecast long-term impacts, advance battery technology, enhance cybersecurity, and conduct comprehensive environmental assessments to optimise the benefits of electromobility, addressing the multidimensional challenges and opportunities presented by EVs.

FEATURES OF THE DETERMINING THE STATE POLICY OF UKRAINE IN THE AREA OF DE-OCCUPATION

This article aims to explore the peculiarities of defining the concept of "state policy" in Ukraine in the context of de-occupation. The relevance of this research is grounded in the ongoing territorial challenges that Ukraine faces due to military aggression and the occupation of its territories. The need for a coherent and strategically sound approach to regaining control over these regions makes the issue highly pertinent. The study adopts an analytical research methodology, focusing on the theoretical foundations of state policy in the sphere of de-occupation. The research also utilizes comparative analysis, examining the different models of de-occupation that have been applied historically and internationally, including military, political-diplomatic, institutional, and economic models. The findings indicate that the concept of “state policy” in de-occupation processes is multi-faceted and requires a comprehensive approach, combining various strategies. Key components of the theoretical basis for state policy in de-occupation are identified, including the political and legal foundation, socio-economic integration, national reconciliation and cultural integration, security measures, and international support. Each of these elements plays a crucial role in the successful recovery of occupied territories and the re-establishment of state sovereignty. The study highlights the importance of synchronizing these components to ensure long-term stability and development in post-conflict regions. The practical value of the article lies in its potential to serve as a guideline for policymakers and government officials in Ukraine, offering a structured understanding of how these key components can be effectively integrated into the country's de-occupation strategy. By focusing on both theoretical and practical dimensions, the article provides a framework that can contribute to the formulation of effective policies aimed at the reintegration of occupied territories, addressing challenges such as legal ambiguity, socio-economic disparities, and security risks. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on de-occupation by offering insights into how Ukraine can enhance its efforts in restoring territorial integrity in the face of current geopolitical challenges.

Assessing economic losses with COVID-19 integrated models: a retrospective analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a global crisis that forced governments to implement restrictive measures to control the spread of the disease. Although these restrictions, such as community quarantines, played a pivotal role in stabilizing healthcare systems, they also caused forced closures of various economic sectors that resulted in huge societal costs and severely impacted the marginalized. In order to understand and quantify the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines, an integrated modeling approach, which combined an epidemiological compartmental model and an economic model, was utilized. The evolving nature of COVID-19 required continuous updating of the integrated model which this paper illustrates by applying three versions of the model in three different phases of the pandemic. Scenario-based estimates of active COVID-19 cases and economic losses, expressed in terms of foregone income, are produced for each of the model versions. Analysis of the results provided a retrospective view of the losses the economy had incurred during the pandemic, along with implications for public policy. The insights presented in this paper emphasize the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to guide pandemic response.