Economic Model Research Articles

Treatment of kidney disease: an analytical decision model at a Swiss university hospital

Abstract Background An observational hospital-based cohort study, where the kidney disease staging is identified as a digital marker, and the association between the standardised staging of Kidney Disease (KD) and the outcomes is assessed along the treatment process. Methods The clinical and administrative data for all patients are stored in the Clinical Data Warehouse. A specific digital marker for an exact KD staging is applied. Three retrospective patient cohorts for exact and imprecise staging and missing diagnosis are defined and compared regarding the in-hospital mortality, all-cause mortality and disease progression. Results In total, 83146 hospitalisations of 40421 patients with KD, treated in 2014-2023 (2016-2023 will be updated) were identified; the number of the first hospitalisations with exact staging was 847 (2%), unprecise 29934 (72%) and missing diagnosis (26%). The demographic and baseline factors distribution between groups was tested with no association (chi-squared test statistic). The median survival time with a 95% CI was 7.94 (7.66, 8.81) years for the exact and 7.47 (7.42, 7.53) for the imprecise staging group. A log-rank and loglikelihood tests indicated a significant difference in survival between the groups, p < 0.0001. The Cox regression model shows a statistically significant difference in Hazard Ratio; KD staging, age, Elixhauser van Walraven index, treatment, nephrotoxic medication, contrast agent application, and AKI were identified as the significant covariates, C-statistic 0.730, Likelihood ratio test, Wald test, log-rank score on 42 df, p < 2e-16. ANOVA analysis confirmed a significant difference in cost distribution between the groups. An economic decision model proposal integrates the findings, combining a profile-level Markov cohort with a Discreet Time-To-Event Simulation DICE. Conclusions The study demonstrates a better outcome regarding all-cause mortality, in-hospital mortality, and costs if a standardised KD staging was applied. Key messages • Intuition (clinical judgement) and standardised kidney disease staging perform differently regarding clinical outcomes and costs. • The study demonstrates a better outcome regarding all-cause mortality, in-hospital mortality, and costs if a standardised KD staging was applied.

Resources Price Adjustment in Cloud Computing for Load Balancing and Fairness Between Users and Suppliers

Resource price adjustment is a challenging issue when building a cloud computing system. For this purpose, we present an approach that adopts a market-driven price adjustment model as an economic incentive model and ensures the balance between supply and demand. We show how this model may be adapted and applied to an infrastructure as a service (IaaS) in cloud computing. We place ourselves in the context of the virtual machines market. To achieve competitive equilibrium, prices are adjusted according to a tâtonnement-like process. The prices are computed by a third party, the auctioneer. However, this process requires several assumptions to ensure the existence and stability of competitive equilibrium, not all of which are verified by cloud computing systems. The atomicity and convexity of preferences are not guaranteed by cloud computing systems. These questions will be the subject of our empirical study. We find empirically that the change in the sign of excess demand, indicating the existence of equilibrium, occurs between two similar prices. The experimental results show that the proposed dynamic price adjustment approach is more profitable than fixed-price pricing, allowing dynamic suppliers to become important market agents.

Informing healthy urban policy making through quantitative health impact appraisal – a co-designed approach

Abstract Quantitative health impact appraisal for land use development is currently challenging. We show how a co-designed process between urban decision makers and academics can help to improve ways of deriving evidence for creating healthier cities. The Health Appraisal of Urban Systems (HAUS) economic valuation model was developed with local partners to inform a strategic framework for a UK urban regeneration site. HAUS is a comparative risk assessment model which allows the user to understand mechanisms for change through applying an impact-pathway approach to quantify changes in health. It is informed by systematic reviews of epidemiology and societal costs of 85 individual health end-points. Scenarios combined a range of characteristics including air and noise pollution, green space, crime, walkability, food environment and transport. Health outcomes include morbidity and mortality impacts. Results show the value of a holistic approach to comparing health risks in designing urban living. By monetising outcomes, practitioners were able to understand the relative magnitude of risk within a specific area and compare alternate urban development scenarios. Compared to an unmanaged development, the Strategic Framework can mitigate health risks by improving safety and quality of the public realm and add health benefits by encouraging activity and active commuting. Flood risks are managed, and green infrastructure improved and extended. These benefits extend to communities outside the site boundaries. Over 25 years, the PV benefits are £60 - 80 million in averted health costs. Strategic planning for urban areas can unlock the potential of the public realm to tackle health inequalities and mitigate serious risks to public health. Timely access to quantitative information on health can help inform understanding of unhealthy environments, strengthen arguments for good design, reinforce capacity of planning teams and so improve the quality of urban developments. Speakers/Panelists Odile Mekel NRW Centre for Health, Bochum, Germany

Characteristics of Economic Fairness in the Music Streaming Economy: A Comparative Analysis of Current Distribution Models

This article compares current distribution models in the music streaming economy. The models presented are the pro rata model, the user-centric model (UCM), a progressive extension of the UCM and an alternative model. It focuses on a critique of the UCM as an alternative remuneration model, arguing that the UCM has the potential for economic devaluation, which can be exposed through simple logical analysis. It also provides criteria for fair remuneration in a distribution model.

A life course study of the Beixin culture residents from the Neolithic site of Xiaheqiadong, Shandong Province, China

AbstractThe Xiaheqiadong site located in Zhangqiu district, Jinan city, Shandong province, China, was excavated in 2016 by the Jinan Institute of Archaeology, which revealed six single burials dating to the Beixin culture period (ca. 5,300–4,500 BC to ca. 4,100–3,600 BC). This paper used bioarchaeological methods to study the human skeletal remains to reconstruct the life course of the residents of the Beixin culture at the Xiaheqiadong site, focusing on stable isotope analysis, evaluation of stress, tooth ablation, and intentional skull modification. Based on stable isotope analysis of carbon, it is evident that the dietary structure of the ancient residents of Xiaheqiadong was mainly dependent on C4 plants or animals that ate mainly C4 plants. The stable isotope analysis of nitrogen indicated that the ancient residents of the Xiaheqiadong site exhibited a relatively sufficient consumption of animal protein. Furthermore, this result also reveals that a subsistence economic model was established consisting of farming, gathering, and hunting. Observations of the stress indicators (including cribra orbitalia, porotic hyperostosis, and linear enamel hypoplasia) revealed that they experienced poor health conditions and were under high levels of stress during infancy and early childhood. However, this situation improved with increasing age, suggesting that residents from the Xiaheqiadong site had the capacity to withstand severe living conditions and adapt after experiencing stress events. The tooth ablation and occipital modification cases from the Xiaheqiadong site are the earliest cases among the individuals with accurate dating results found in China.

A sustainable fuzzy economic production quantity model (SFEPQM) with sporadic machine failures, inspection and prepayments under carbon tax and cap policy

Goals for sustainability have caused an upcoming change in the emphasis of Economic Production Quantity models, which was previously limited mainly to financial considerations to include aspects of the environment as well. The primary tools used in many nations to reduce emissions are carbon cap and price legislation. However, companies in the production industry may have difficulties with their planning and oversight procedures as they frequently have to cope with faulty products and machinery failures. Previous research has not addressed the comprehensiveness of green investment in machine breakdowns. Considering this problem, we have developed a sustainable economic production quantity model with sporadic malfunctions of machinery and prepayments under carbon tax and cap regulations. Our aim is to minimise the overall cost of faulty items with the investment in green technologies. An approach that combines with the outstanding effectiveness of green strategies to minimise emissions will culminate in a greener production that generates more profit than the traditional system. This study considers two cases i.e. with and without green technology investment (GTI). It also has many predictions, including the execution of inspections afterwards as well as during manufacturing, faulty goods are scrapped while others are sold at discounted price.

Decoding the influence of emotional and attentional states on self-control using facial analysis

Self-control plays a pivotal role in pursuing long-term goals related to health and financial well-being. While ample evidence suggests that humans are prone to occasional self-control lapses, little is known about how changes in emotional and attentional states affect the ability to maintain self-control. In two studies (N1 = 109 and N2 = 90), we used emotion recognition software to decode participants’ facial expressions while manipulating their attentional and emotional states during a Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT) before exerting self-control in a subsequent task. Our findings reveal dissociable roles of attention and valence in maintaining self-control, depending on the distinct demands of the task. Specifically, performance in a subsequent cognitive task was predominantly associated with changes in attentional states during the PVT rather than valence. Conversely, preferences in a subsequent social task were associated with changes in valence states during the PVT, while attention showed no effect. This dissociation between attention-invoked and emotion-invoked lapses in self-control holds significant implications for psychological and economic models of self-control, ultimately contributing to the development of policies to mitigate the detrimental consequences of individual self-control lapses.

Thermo-economic analysis on trans-critical compressed CO2 energy storage system integrated with the waste heat of liquid-cooled data center

Compressed CO2 energy storage (CCES) technology has the advantages of high energy storage density, low economic cost, low carbon emission, which is suitable for the construction of large-scale and long-time energy storage system. Besides, as a scene with massive heat, the electricity consumption of servers in data center is mostly converted into heat. Thus, the purpose of this work is to integrate a trans-critical compressed CO2 energy storage system with the waste heat of data centers, so as to improve the system performance and reduce the operating cost of data center. Based on different operating principles of compressors, a single-stage compression system (System-CP) and a double-stage compression system (System-VP) are constructed. To analyze and compare the energy and exergy performance of these two systems under design conditions, a quasi-dynamic model is developed by considering the variations of pressure and temperature in the storage tank. On this basis, an economic model is developed to obtain the economy performance for the systems. The obtained results show that the round-trip efficiency (RTE) of System-CP and System-VP are 64.67 % and 67.41 %, respectively. For the energy storage capacity 15 MW × 5 h, volumes of high-pressure S-CO2 storage tank are 314,387.51 m3 and 287,982.91 m3 for System-CP and System-VP, respectively. Thereby, the energy storage density (ESD) of System-CP and System-VP are 0.24 kW·h/m3 and 0.26 kW·h/m3, respectively. Meanwhile, the total capital cost (TCC) is $477.84 × 106 for System-CP, and $437.41 × 106 for System-VP, and the corresponding payback period (PBP) are 14.76 years and 12.39 years respectively. Further, the effect of key parameters on systems performance is revealed. The results show that with the decrease of slip-pressure range decreases, RTE, TCC and the volume of storage tanks increase linearly.

The Health and Economic Benefits of United States Investments in Measles and Rubella Control and Elimination

Background: Prior to measles vaccine introduction in 1963, measles virus caused hundreds of thousands of annual reported cases, which led to substantial US morbidity, mortality, and costs. Similarly, congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) led to highly visible and tragic lifelong disability for thousands of Americans, before rubella vaccine introduction in 1969. The US certified national virus transmission elimination of indigenous measles in 2000 and rubella in 2004. Methods: Applying an existing integrated transmission and economic model, this analysis characterizes the net benefits of US investments in measles (1963–2030) and rubella (1969–2030) immunization assuming continued high routine immunization coverage. Due to importation risks, the US maintains two doses of both vaccines in its routine immunization schedule. Results: This analysis estimates total US costs of 8.1 billion (economics reported in 2023 US dollars) for measles immunization for 1963–2023 and 14.1 billion for rubella immunization for 1969–2023. The analysis estimates an additional approximately 1.2 billion for measles immunization and 1.5 billion for rubella immunization expected for 2024–2030. Historical and future US investments prevented an estimated approximately 237 million measles infections, 228,000 measles deaths, 193 million rubella infections, and 166,000 CRS cases. These investments imply net benefits (from avoided treatment costs minus immunization costs) of approximately 310 billion for measles and 430 billion for rubella and CRS, even without incorporating avoided productivity losses and intangible costs. Conclusions: US investments in measles and rubella immunization continue to provide enormous savings of human and financial costs and to prevent substantial mortality and morbidity.

A Comparative Study of the Economic Development of China and Japan after World War II

China's economy is currently facing difficulties such as a slowdown in development, an economic structure that is not adapted to the new world economic situation and so on. How to get out of these difficulties has become an important issue. From a historical perspective, this article compares the economic development processes of China and Japan after World War II and analyses the enlightenment that China can draw from Japan's economic development. The study of this article concludes that after World War II, the economic development models of China and Japan were highly similar. Both countries implemented a development strategy that prioritized heavy and chemical industries, introduced economic development policies that emphasized exports and adopted a government-led economic development model. Both are currently encountering similar development difficulties. Based on Japan's economic development experience and lessons, China should focus on real estate bubbles, market mechanism adjustment and improvement, etc. to adapt to the needs of the new economic situation.

A hybrid approach based energy management of hybrid energy systems with efficient economic model

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a hybrid AHO-SNN-based energy management (EM) of hybrid energy systems (HES) with an efficient economic model. The proposed hybrid method is combined with the Archerfish Hunting Optimizer (AHO) and Spiking Neural Network (SNN). Commonly, it is named as AHO-SNN technique. The major aim of the AHO-SNN method is the efficient economical modeling of HES and the study of sizing and EM. The comprehensive approach for describing the ideal size EM system (EMS) combination for HES is presented in this paper. The HESs, like fuel cell (FC), electrolyzer (EL), PV, battery energy system (BES), diesel generator (DSL), and hydrogen tank (HT). To determine the ideal size-EMS combination, this new EMS is employed to re-use the analytical as well as economic sizing. The AHO-SNN technique is implemented in the MATLAB software and is compared to various existing techniques. The AHO-SNN method provides an optimum outcome than the existing Particle Swarm optimization (PSO), Heap based optimizer (HBO), and Wild horse optimizer (WHO) methods. The power comparison of the existing technique HBO achieved power is 30 W, WHO is 20 W, WHO is around 10 W. In the proposed technique, the power generated is 40 W, which is way higher than the existing techniques. After implementing the integrated framework, the size of PV is cut in half, from 140 to 60 kW, which reduces the electrolyzer and the size of the hydrogen tank in also cut in half. In addition to a 35% decrease in diesel generator working hours and a 40% reduction in the leveled energy cost, PV degrades at a rate of 0.5%.

A dynamically consistent discretization method for the Goodwin model with nonlinear Phillips curve. Comparing qualitative and quantitative dynamics

AbstractThe Goodwin model is a widely used economic growth model able to explain endogenous fluctuations in employment rate and wage share; in its initial version, the standard Phillips curve is used. In the present work, we suggest a revised Phillips curve that takes into account how the wage share influences the rate of changes of the wage itself thus obtaining a continuous-time modified Goodwin model. Since applying models to real data often requires working in a discrete-time setup, we then move from the continuous-time to the discrete-time version of the proposed model, by using a general polynomial discretization method in backward and forward-looking (hybrid discretization). By comparing the continuous-time system to its discrete-time counterpart we prove that fixed points and local dynamics do not change, as long as the time step is not too high. Moreover, numerical simulations employing Dynamic Time Warping, cross-correlation, and semblance analysis consistently affirm that enhancing the similarity of quantitative dynamics is achieved by reducing the time step.

Enhancing Students’ Knowledge-Based Economy Skills at Sultan Qaboos University

This study examines the readiness of Sultan Qaboos University (SQU) students for the knowledge-based economy, focusing on their awareness, perceptions, and skills. As Oman transitions towards a knowledge-based economic model, understanding and enhancing students’ preparedness has become crucial. This research employs a quantitative approach, utilizing a questionnaire distributed to SQU students across various colleges and academic levels, achieving a 66.04% response rate. The key findings reveal that while many students consider knowledge economy skills very important, some express neutral awareness about these skills. Students ranked creativity and innovation (85.82%) and critical thinking and problem solving (85.11%) as the most essential skills. The study identifies significant relationships between enhancing students’ knowledge-based economy skills (ESKBE) and both awareness of the knowledge-based economy (AWS) and the impact of technology on education and employment (ITEE). Students generally view the knowledge economy positively, with 55% agreeing it will have a positive societal impact. However, they recognize challenges, including resistance to change (53.5% agreement) and limited access to education and training (49.3% agreement). The need for government involvement in addressing these challenges was strongly emphasized (54.3% agreement). Based on these findings, the study recommends that SQU enhance its curriculum to explicitly develop key skills, improve awareness of knowledge economy demands, further integrate technology into educational practices, strengthen industry partnerships, promote lifelong learning initiatives, and engage more actively with policymakers. This paper also provides a unique look at higher education’s role in the changing economy, as seen through graduates. It offers empirical evidence for the necessity of universities to change to serve the knowledge economy and, at the same time, make a case on how complex this transformation is. The results matter not only for SQU but also—in a more general sense, at least as far as knowledge-based economies are concerned—globally with respect to higher education institutions.

Where did the herds go? Combining zooarchaeological and isotopic data to examine animal management in ancient Thessaly (Greece).

Historians and archaeologists have been debating the scale of animal husbandry in ancient Greece for decades. This study contributes to the debate by examining Classical and Hellenistic faunal assemblages from Magoula Plataniotki, New Halos, and Pherae through non-destructive zooarchaeological methods and a multi-isotopic (87Sr/86Sr, δ13C, and δ18O) approach. Zooarchaeological data suggest that small-scale sedentary animal husbandry focused on caprine production in Magoula Plataniotiki and New Halos, and small-scale and semi-specialised animal husbandry was practised in Pherae. Isotopic data show both sedentary and mobile management of livestock in all sites, indicating different levels of production intensity and variety of goals. Based on our results, we propose an economic model whereby semi-specialised and small-scale animal husbandry co-existed, confirming mixed husbandry models for ancient Greece.

A three-pronged new development model for overcoming the middle-technology trap in China

This article addresses a critical issue facing developing countries: overcoming the “middle-technology trap” to achieve sustainable economic growth. It posits that transitioning to an innovation-driven economic growth model is pivotal for surmounting this trap and is an essential prerequisite for high-quality development. This study introduces a strategic approach through a new development model, emphasizing the synergy among three core systems: basic scientific research, applied technology, and financial support. This “three-pronged” collaboration model is argued to foster sustainable innovation-driven growth, essential for leaping over the “middle-income trap” towards high-quality development. By analyzing the historical trajectories of the Soviet Union and the United States, the article delineates the critical role of the proposed model in fostering an innovation economy. The Soviet Union’s failure and the United States’ success are examined through the lens of their respective approaches to integrating basic scientific research, applied technology, and financial systems. The analysis underscores the necessity of a balanced and interactive relationship among these systems for technological innovation, industrial development, and sustainable economic growth. The article concludes that for China to overcome the “middle-technology trap” and achieve long-term prosperity, it should embrace this “three-pronged” new development model, ensuring continuous scientific exploration, technological innovation, and productivity enhancement.

Optimal replacement of coal with wind and battery energy storage

Abstract Electric utilities are considering replacing their coal power plants with renewables and energy storage to reduce emissions. However, they have also expressed concerns about operational changes and system reliability brought by these replacements. Utilities in remote rural areas face more challenges as they also face energy insecurity while having limited interconnections to wider systems and reliance on imported fuels. Therefore, it is critical for remote utilities to understand different coal replacement approaches and their impacts on system expansion, operation and energy security. In this paper, we define and investigate three approaches to replace coal using wind and batteries: 1) replacing exact coal generation, 2) replacing at least coal generation, and 3) replacing total energy provided by coal. We develop a case study inspired by the small remote grid in Fairbanks, Alaska, which has a single limited interconnection with the grid south of it. We utilize a power system expansion and economic dispatch model that co-optimizes the capacities of wind and batteries required for each approach and the hourly dispatch of energy and reserves for one year. We further analyze the operational cost variability under fixed and fluctuating fuel prices. We find that replacing the exact coal generation requires minimal operational changes, but also significantly more wind and battery capacities. In contrast, replacing total energy provided by coal induces more cycling in other resources, challenging grids with limited flexibility-providing resources. However, replacing total energy provided by coal allows more generation variability in response to fuel price fluctuations, enhancing energy security.

The effect of intellectual capital and venture capital on enterprise values: evidence from China

PurposeIntellectual capital (IC) and venture capital (VC) play an important role in enterprise development. While the literature has investigated the relationship between IC and the profitability of companies, the relationship among IC, VC and enterprise value (EV) is still not well understood.Design/methodology/approachDrawing insights from the literature, we develop a few testable hypotheses about the relationships among IC, VC and EV. Using the panel data of companies listed in the Chinese stock market from 2009 to 2019, we employ fixed-effects regression models to test these hypotheses.FindingsWe find that IC has a significant positive effect on long-term EV. VC is found to have a positive direct effect on long-term EV but has a negative direct effect when its moderating effect with IC is considered. To explain this finding, we develop a simple economic model and provide an over-investment perspective.Originality/valueWe believe this paper can shed light on pro-venture investment policies in China, as well as provide indications for similar policies around the world.

Respect for Constitutional Rights of Individuals in Platform Economy

The paper dwells on the issue of respect for labor and social rights of individuals enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation in sectors of the economy that are partially or completely switching to activities in an economic model based on the use of digital platforms (platform economy). The strengths and weaknesses of this method of organizing activities for workers employed in the industries under consideration are elucidated in the context of both labor and civil law relations, including workers having the status of self-employed workers. The main possible reasons for the transition of economic entities to activities within the framework of the platform economy, including with a change in the nature of legal relations, are justified through a set of objective (economic and social) and subjective (related to the education, abilities and motivation of a potential employee) reasons. Avito.ru Internet platform is monitored to find job vacancies, within which ensuring the proper implementation of сonstitutional rights of citizens is possible exclusively within the framework of labor legal relations. The analysis of the conditions of employment offered by actual employers reveals typical potential and actual violations of human rights in relation to both an employee and third parties. Based on the results of the analysis of practice, the author offers a number of measures aimed at eliminating the identified prerequisites for violating the constitutional rights of citizens. In particular, the ban on attracting persons as self-employed to perform work or provide services that pose a threat of violation of their rights or the rights of third parties in the event of this activity outside the framework of labor legal relations, as well as the possibility of recognizing civil law relations between the actual employer and an individual in the status of self-employed actual labor relations.

Artificial Neural Networks for Energy Demand Prediction in an Economic MPC‐Based Energy Management System

ABSTRACTMicrogrids are a development trend and have attracted a lot of attention worldwide. The control system plays a crucial role in implementing these systems and, due to their complexity, artificial intelligence techniques represent some enabling technologies for their future development and success. In this paper, we propose a novel formulation of an economic model predictive control (economic MPC) applied to a microgrid designed for a faculty building with the inclusion of a predictive model to deal with the energy demand disturbance using a recurrent neural network of the long short‐term memory (RNN‐LSTM). First, we develop a framework to identify an RNN‐LSTM using historical data registered by a smart three‐phase power quality analyzer to provide feedforward power demand predictions. Next, we present an economic MPC formulation that includes the prediction model for the disturbance within the optimization problem to be solved by the MPC strategy. We carried out simulations with different scenarios of energy consumption, available resources, and simulation times to highlight the results obtained and analyze the performance of the energy management system. In all cases, we observed the correct operation of the proposed control scheme, complying at all times with the objectives and operational restrictions imposed on the system.

Model Pengelolaan Ekonomi Pesantren dalam Mewujudkan Kemandirian Ekonomi di Pondok Pesantren Tanwirul Islam Sampang

Pesantren economics is an economic concept where pesantren manages and develops businesses with various innovations that can specifically benefit Islamic boarding schools and benefit the community in general in realizing economic independence. The purpose of this study is to find out the economic management model of the pesantren applied by the Tanwirul Islam Sampang Islamic boarding school and to find out the challenges faced by the Tanwirul Islam Sampang Islamic boarding school in managing the pesantren economy to realize economic independence. This type of research uses a qualitative descriptive approach, with data collection techniques in the form of interviews, observations, and documentation related to economic management at the Tanwirul Islam Sampang Islamic Boarding School. The results of the study show that the Tanwirul Islam Islamic boarding school implements the pesantren economic management model with an alumni-based economic development model, by utilizing the potential of alumni for the management of the pesantren business unit and implementing an entrepreneurship curriculum at the formal education level of students and involving external parties such as the surrounding community.