Economic Impacts Of Climate Change Research Articles

Economic impacts of climate change on forests: a PICUS-LANDIS-CGE modeling approach

Climate change is expected to alter both forest stand- and landscape-level dynamics through a change in environmental characterises. While numerous studies have employed models to assess the ecological and/or economic impacts of such changes on forests throughout the world, there is need to further refine such analyses. In this paper, we contribute to this literature by coupling an ecological (PICUS-LANDIS II) modeling framework with an economic (CGE) model to better account for the economic impact associated with climate-induced impacts on forest stand and landscape-level structure and composition dynamics. Applying this framework to a case-study region of New Brunswick, Canada, we estimate that climate change will reduce softwood supply by 16-73% and impact hardwood supply in the range of -2% to +4% by 2150. The change in wood supply is estimated to reduce the value of the softwood and hardwood forestry and logging sector output by up to 51% and 17%, respectively, by 2150. These sector-level impacts may lead to a 0.08-0.88% reduction in annual GDP by 2150. The methodological advances established in this study can be used to better inform future forest management and economic plans that aim to lessen both the ecological and economic impact of climate change.

Mind the gap between the economic effect of climate change and the reality

Climate change increases its severity day by day and poses a great threat to our world. Climate change problems almost cause the global economic system to be questioned. This issue is also very important for China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey, which are expressed as E7 (developing) countries. Climate change forecasts for many countries predict that temperatures will rise as precipitation increases or decreases. Technological improvements are predicted to play an important role in mitigating and adapting to the negative consequences of climate change. This study aims to determine the effect of climate change on the economic growth of E7 countries between the years 2004-2021 using panel data methods. Analysis was done with the Stata 15 program. In the study, firstly, the literature on climate change and economic growth is included. Afterwards, the economic consequences of climate change are discussed. In the following section, solutions that will be effective in combating climate change are explained. Then, the empirical analysis and the obtained findings were included and the study was concluded with the conclusion and evaluation. All variables are statistically significant. Accordingly, while temperature and precipitation negatively affect GDP; Urbanization, population growth and HDI positively affect GDP. According to the consequences of the analysis, it was concluded that climate change negatively affected economic growth.

Investigating the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Iran: Spatial spillovers matter

AbstractIn this study, we enhance our understanding of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Iran to provide further information for moving Iran's climate policy forward by linking farmland net revenue to novel climatic and non‐climatic variables. We take advantage of spatial panel econometrics to better circumvent omitted factors extraneous to the agricultural sector and to develop a more reliable and consistent model when data are inherently spatial. In contrast to conventional panel studies which relied on year‐to‐year weather observations, we exploit a hybrid approach to compromise between the disadvantages and advantages of longer‐term cross‐sectional analysis and shorter‐term panel models. We estimate the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture under several global warming scenarios based on the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We find that (I) farmlands’ net revenues are projected to decline by 8%–19% and 14%–51% by 2050 and 2080; (II) the distributional impacts of climate change would highly depend on climate zones and geographical locations; (III) a few counties might benefit from climate changes; (IV) finally, failing to account for spatial spillovers when they are present leads to a misspecified model.

Potential Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources

Potential Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources

Economic impact of climate change in Guatemala

Economic impact of climate change in Guatemala

A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change

Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the estimates is much wider. (3) Elicitation methods are most pessimistic, econometric studies most optimistic. Two previous results remain: (4) The uncertainty about the impact is skewed towards negative surprises. (5) Poorer countries are much more vulnerable than richer ones. A meta-analysis of the impact of weather shocks reveals that studies, which relate economic growth to temperature levels, cannot agree on the sign of the impact whereas studies, which make economic growth a function of temperature change do agree on the sign but differ an order of magnitude in effect size. The former studies posit that climate change has a permanent effect on economic growth, the latter that the effect is transient. The impact on economic growth implied by studies of the impact of climate change is close to the growth impact estimated as a function of weather shocks. The social cost of carbon shows a similar pattern to the total impact estimates, but with more emphasis on the impacts of moderate warming in the near and medium term.

Economic Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Study of India and its Neighbouring Countries Using ARDL Approach

This study aims to analyze the association between the share of agriculture in GDP and changes in climatic variables, notably per capita CO2 emissions and temperature change, using time series data of India, Bangladesh, and Nepal for the period 1961-2018. The ARDL bounds testing method was applied to analyze the relationships among the research variables for both short-term and long-term. The results revealed that in the long run, per capita CO2 emissions and temperature change have no statistically significant relationship with India and Nepal’s share of agriculture in GDP. However, temperature change has demonstrated a positive and statistically significant relationship with the share of agriculture in Bangladesh’s GDP. Temperature change has a significant and adverse impact on the share of agriculture in India’s GDP in the short run, whereas CO2 has no significant effect. In the short run, CO2 shows a positive and significant connection with the share of agriculture in Bangladesh’s GDP. Still, temperature change is negatively and significantly associated with the proportion of agriculture in the nation’s GDP. Different lag values of both CO2 and temperature change have significant relationships with the share of GDP in agriculture in the short run in Nepal. As agriculture is a key source of GDP for all three countries, it is vital to implement suitable policies and make plans and strategies to mitigate climate change’s harmful consequences in agriculture.

Economic consequences of climate change impacts on South Asian agriculture: A computable general equilibrium analysis

AbstractSouth Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions of the globe in terms of climate change, with agriculture the most affected economic sector of the region. This study employs an environmental Global Trade Analysis Project model to simulate the impact of an average global 2°C temperature increase by 2050, with a focus on South Asian countries. The economic costs of climate change in relation to crop productivity losses due to increasing temperature, land productivity losses caused by rising sea levels and heat stress‐induced agricultural labour productivity losses are assessed based on model simulations. The results show that the unfavourable climate change impacts on agricultural productivity (crop, land and labour) will reduce food production and create upward pressure on food prices. This will lead to a reduction in food consumption at the household level, threatening future food security in the region. The results further predict a contraction in all South Asian economies by 2050, due to adverse climate change impacts on the agricultural sector. In addition, out of the three climate change damage factors considered, labour productivity causes the greatest economic losses, while land productivity losses caused by rising sea levels impact the least. The study also found that low‐income countries would suffer most severely due to the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector, while high‐income countries would be impacted the least.

Economics Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture GDP in Bhutan: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Approach

This paper examines the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Bhutan. It focuses on the significance of the agriculture sector in Bhutan and analyzes the economic effects of climate change using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The dependent variable used in the ARDL model is agriculture GDP, while the independent variables are temperature and rainfall. The ARDL model is employed to assess the short-run and long-run economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. The results of the study indicate that the agriculture sector has consistently contributed the highest GDP from 2009 to 2020 in Bhutan. Additionally, it has provided the most significant employment opportunities compared to other sectors between 2009 and 2019. The ARDL model results demonstrate that in the short run, the coefficient for temperature is positive at 0.16, and the coefficient for rainfall is 0.5, indicating that climate change has a positive impact on agriculture GDP. However, in the long run, the ARDL model reveals a negative impact of climate change on agriculture GDP. The coefficient for temperature is -11.2, and for rainfall, it is -1.13. These findings underscore the urgent need for measures to address the challenges posed by climate change. The paper recommends raising awareness about climate-smart initiatives and programs among stakeholders. Additionally, training and the adoption of climate-resilient seeds and techniques are necessary to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on the agriculture sector.

Research topic identification and trend prediction of China's energy policy: A combined LDA-ARIMA approach

Identifying the research topics of China's energy transition policy and predicting future research trends are crucial for policymakers to make informed decisions and advance the energy transition. This study applied the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to extract 26 major research topics from the 13,976 abstracts of Chinese policy research papers in web of science (WOS), conceptualized the five most popular topics and used the ARIMA model to predict trends over the next 36 months. The results show that except for Economic and Environmental Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption (Topic13), which will first experience unanticipated fluctuations and then show strong growth capacity, all other topics will continue to remain positive growth trend. Research and Development (Topic3) is driven by the urgency of China's energy transformation. Economic and Environmental Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption (Topic13) is driven by the potential for the development of renewable energy. Economic Impact of Climate Change (Topic26) is driven by the climate change debate. Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Energy Consumption (Topic7) is driven by a discussion of their relationship and the mechanisms influencing them. Regional Efficiency and Productivity Analysis (Topic19) is driven by regional differences in China's energy policies.

Measuring the impact of regional climate change on heating and cooling demand for the Chilean energy transition

The regional impact of climate change on heating and cooling demand is important to consider when designing optimal long-term energy policies. Several studies have addressed this issue, but either at a very aggregated level or without optimizing the whole energy system. The aims of this paper are to fill this gap in a generic way and to assess the impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy demands for residential and commercial sectors at the regional and nodal levels in the context of Chile’s energy transition. We propose a methodology based on high resolution climate simulations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. First, a statistical analysis is performed to estimate the long-term trends of so-called heating and cooling degree-days and their impact on final regional energy demands. Then, demand pathways in the energy transition are assessed using a multi-sectoral energy planning model. Numerical experiments using data from Chile show an overall positive economic impact of climate change (limited to heating and cooling demands) for the energy system, with a significant decrease in heating demand compared to a limited increase in cooling requirements. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, cost reductions reach 2.1% of the total discounted system cost on the 2020-2050 period mainly due to a significant decrease of gas consumption for heating. This research highlights the importance for policymakers to consider climate change in efficient energy policies.

Examining the Social and Economic Impact of Climate Change on Rural Communities and the Role of Global Governance in Addressing These Challenges

This study examines the impacts of climate change on rural communities, specifically in the areas of agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and natural resources. The study highlights the challenges faced by these communities in terms of social welfare, economic growth, infrastructure development, and environmental sustainability. Global governance is also mentioned as an important factor in addressing climate change challenges. The study finds that rural populations heavily depend on these sectors, making them vulnerable to extreme weather events such as increasing temperatures, storms, floods, and droughts. This vulnerability leads to various social and economic challenges, including crop failures, harm to livestock, and infrastructure damage.

Fishing motives and economic effects of climate change: an application on Arctic char in northern Sweden

Motives for fishing differ among fishers, which may imply different effects of climate change on the net values of fishing. Climate change has impacts on fish population dynamics and on other factors in the fishers’ harvest decision, such as alternative sources of food or income. Here we present a bio-economic model that includes impacts of climate change on fish population and on net values of harvest by fishers with recreational or subsistence fishing motives. The conceptual analysis shows that the economic effects of climate change with simultaneous impacts on fish population growth and harvest values are inconclusive with common fishing access for both fisher types and when there are opposite simultaneous climate effects with exclusive access for one of the fisher types. Numerical results from our model of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in northern Sweden indicate that climate change, measured as temperature increases, reduces fish population growth but increases net values of fishing for both fisher types. The combined net effect of these counteracting forces is that annual net values can almost cease for the subsistence fisher in the future but increase considerably for the recreational fisher.

Measuring the Expected Economic Effect of Climate Change on the Sugar Beet Crop Using the Ricardo Model

Measuring the Expected Economic Effect of Climate Change on the Sugar Beet Crop Using the Ricardo Model

Ecological and economic assessment of sustainable spatial land management in the context of global climate change: economic and mathematical modeling

This article emphasises that the degree of anthropogenic (ecodestructive) impact on the state of agricultural production is the main criterion for assessing the development of sustainable spatial land management under certain ecological and economic constraints. The aim of the study is to model the ecological and economic assessment of the transformation of the territorial-spatial management of agricultural land at different levels of management, taking into account the impact of anthropogenic (ecodestructive) factors to ensure sustainable land use in the context of global climate change. Thus, the methodology of territorial-spatial analysis of the efficiency of transformation of modern agricultural land use and use of land and resource potential is aimed at determining its holistic assessment as a systemic and complex phenomenon. An economic-mathematical model for calculating the optimal structure of sown areas by placing crops between production structures of different levels of management, taking into account their susceptibility to the action of a particular ecodestructive (anthropogenic) factor, is proposed. The allocation of agricultural production based on the presented model implies redistribution of production of certain types of products, taking into account minimisation of economic losses from anthropogenic (ecodestructive) factors, in particular, industrial air pollution. The paper considers the possibilities of quantifying the economic consequences of climate change in the system of agricultural land use. It is proved that the assessment of economic losses from climate change in the system of sustainable agricultural land use requires the development of a system of cost standards that correspond to the input climate parameters. This article presents natural indicators and regional adjustment coefficients of agricultural production in case of an increase in the average annual air temperature by one degree, with differentiation by regions of Ukraine. An algorithm for economic assessment of the impact of changes in the thermal regime of the atmosphere on the efficiency of the crop production industry is presented. The proposed modelling of the territorialspatial improvement of agricultural land use efficiency is a methodological approach to assessing the environmental consequences of transforming the efficiency of management in agriculture in terms of reducing and preventing economic losses from anthropogenic (ecodestructive) factors in the context of global climate change. So, the practical implementation of the presented methodological approach to the economic assessment of the impact of global climate change on agriculture will allow to substantiate recommendations for the formation of a system of actions that would allow to avoid or at least reduce the negative climate impact.

How Much Will Climate Change Reduce Productivity in a High-Technology Supply Chain? Evidence from Silicon Wafer Manufacturing

The frequency of hot days in much of the world is increasing. What is the impact of high temperatures on productivity? Can technology-based adaptation mitigate such effects of climate change? We provide some answers to these questions by examining how high outdoor temperatures affect a high-technology, precision manufacturing setting. Exploiting individual-level data on the quantity and quality of work done across 35,190 worker-shifts in a leading NYSE-listed silicon wafer maker in China, we evidence a negative effect of outdoor heat on productivity. The effects are large: in our preferred linear specification, an increase in wet bulb temperature of 10,^{circ }C causes a reduction in output of 8.3%. Temperature effects exist even though the manufacturer’s work-spaces are indoors and protected by high-quality climate control systems. Results are not driven by extreme weather events and are robust to alternative modelling approaches. They illustrate the potential future adverse economic effects of climate change in most of the industrialised world.

The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Sunflower Seeds Yield in Constanta County, Dobrogea Region, Romania

The paper analyzed the impact of climate change on sunflower production performance in Constanta County, Romania using data from National Institute of Statistics and from Valu lui Traian Meteorological Station. Fixed basis indices and graphics reflected the dynamics of cultivated area, seeds production, yield, and precipitations, while correlations, regression and R2 were used to show the link existing between precipitations and yield. In the period 2016-2020

The economic effects of climate change on the fig crop productivity in Matrouh Governorate

The economic effects of climate change on the fig crop productivity in Matrouh Governorate

Climate Change and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Climate change affects food security directly through temperature levels and water availability in agriculture and indirectly through its impact on disease vectors and pests. This paper investigates the economic impact of climate change on food security in Su-Saharan Africa. Panel data from all Su-Saharan African countries are used to analyze the impact of temperature and precipitation on food security. Their coefficient of variation is used to analyze their impact on food security. The results from the analysis show that the coefficient of variations in both temperature and precipitation affects food security negatively. The climate variables affect food security directly through their impact on food production and indirectly through their impact on other food security indicators. According to the findings, the impact of climate change on food security in the region is damaging. The study recommends ecosystem management and production system improvement. To overcome the impact, the study suggests appropriate land use policy formulation, natural resource conservation, implementing best agronomic practices, and maintaining population growth at an optimum level in the region

Adding to the mix – Challenges of mixed‐fisheries management in the North Sea under climate change and technical interactions

AbstractTechnical interactions (multiple fleets fishing multiple species with various gears, as either target or bycatch), bycatch regulations through a landing obligation, and biological and economic effects of climate change, affecting fisheries yield and profits, provide a challenge for demersal mixed fisheries of the North Sea. A multi‐stock, multi‐fleet, bioeconomic model was used to understand management options under these combined influences. Scenarios considered climate change effects on recruitment of three main gadoid stocks (cod – Gadus morhua, saithe – Pollachius virens, whiting – Merlangius merlangus), possible future developments of fuel and fish prices, and strict implementation of a landing obligation. The latter leads to decreased yield and profits in the short term due to increased choke effects, mainly of North Sea cod, being influenced by climate‐induced productivity changes. Allowing fishing above FMSY, but within sustainable limits, or limiting year‐to‐year quota changes, could help buffer initial losses at the expense of decreased profits in the mid‐ to long‐term. Economic performance of individual fleets was linked to their main target's stock status, cost structure, and fuel and fish prices. The results highlight a need to consider both biological and economic consequences of climate change in the management of mixed fisheries.