Path Of Economic Growth Research Articles

Calibrating Ukraine’s Growth Model: How Can Ukraine Emulate Poland’s Growth?

This study provides a comparative analysis of the economic growth paths of Ukraine and Poland from a growth‑model perspective and determines how to calibrate Ukraine’s growth model to converge with Poland’s booming economy. The methodology comprises an approach to operationalizing growth models for GDP growth decomposition into “import‑adjusted” demand components, drawing on national input‑output data from 2000 to 2019. I found that from 2000 to 2003, both European economies relied on a combination of exports and domestic consumption. Expanded trade integration and an FDI boost after Poland joined the EU in 2004 spurred the Polish growth model’s shift to a distinctively export‑led, FDI‑driven strategy with accelerated GDP growth rates. In Ukraine, in the wake of the great financial crisis, I identified a transition to a consumption‑led growth model that, along with a declining investment component of aggregate demand, led to fading growth rates. An analysis of sectoral contributions to GDP growth revealed that avoiding deindustrialization in Poland underpinned the country’s export‑led strategy, unlike Ukraine, which underwent a key sectoral shift from manufacturing to a commodities‑based orientation after 2008. Both these economies demonstrated a high level of integration into global value chains, focusing on labor‑intensive manufacturing and services, but Poland has outperformed Ukraine in terms of share of high value‑added exports, which increased after EU accession. Following the Polish pattern, I propose that Ukraine’s growth model should activate the FDI driver of economic growth, upgrading the export structure and moving up value chains to unlock the country’s growth opportunities. The study represents the first comparison of Ukraine’s and Poland’s economic growth paths that traces the changes in dominant final demand components and macro‑sectors in the two countries’ economic growth profiles. This paper contributes to the comparative political economy literature on the growth models of peripheral economies, providing insights that can inform policies for growth model transformation.

Ladrill Market Dynamics And Economic Growth : Evidence From Emerging Markets

Labor market dynamics and economic growth are two key components that are interrelated in determining the stability and economic progress of a country. In emerging markets, significant changes in the labor market can affect the overall economic growth path. This research analyzes the relationship between labor market dynamics and economic growth in emerging markets. Using a literature study method, this study collected data from various secondary sources including academic journals, policy reports and relevant case studies during the period 2000-2023. Thematic analysis is used to explore labor market indicators such as the labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and real wages, and their relationship to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. The research results show that increasing labor force participation and decreasing unemployment rates significantly contribute to economic growth in emerging markets. Additionally, increases in real wages were found to have a positive effect on labor productivity and economic competitiveness. These findings highlight the importance of inclusive and sustainable labor market policies to promote stable economic growth in developing countries. Policy implications and further recommendations are discussed to support effective decision making by policy makers.

Macroeconomic Policy Adjustments on Environmental Protection Effectiveness Research - Based on the DSGE Model

Through the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE model), this article explores the balance between economic development and environmental protection, focusing on the in-depth mutual influence among economic agents such as households, banks, producers, and government in promoting economic growth and achieving environmental protection. The model comprehensively considers factors such as production technology, carbon tax policies, bank loan rates, and government fiscal policies, aiming to analyze the specific impacts of these factors on economic growth, environmental protection, and social welfare. By detailed settings and analysis of consumption, savings, and labor supply decisions of households, the financial intermediary role of the banking sector, and carbon emissions and environmental technology use in the production sector, this study provides theoretical support for an environmentally friendly economic growth path. Through policy analysis, this article reveals the short-term and long-term effects of positive technological shocks, taxation on energy firms' loan rates, carbon tax policies, and government spending on the economy and the environment, providing a theoretical basis and reference for formulating relevant economic and environmental policies. The results indicate that appropriate macroeconomic policies can effectively promote economic growth while reducing carbon emissions and enhancing social welfare.

Towards a General Theory of Sustainable Development: Using a Sustainability Window Approach to Explore All Possible Scenario Paths of Economic Growth and Degrowth

Across decades of contemporary discussion on sustainable development, a core concern has been the balance between economic, social, and environmental dimensions. A critical strand of the debate focuses on economic growth versus economic degrowth and, more specifically, on whether economic growth can be sustainable in environmental terms and whether degrowth can be sustainable in social terms. This conceptual and theoretical article used the Sustainability Window, or “SuWi”’ method, to theoretically determine the sustainable window of economies. The window is defined as the upper and lower bounds of future change in GDP that could be deemed in line with achieving both environmental and social sustainability. The conceptual analysis considers all theoretically possible scenario paths for development by combining the outcome paths of economic, environmental, and social dimensions with the environmental and social productivities of GDP. Through SuWi analysis, it is found that only four of the logically possible scenario paths could be considered theoretically “sustainable”—two cases involving economic growth and two of degrowth. In the cases of each of the four paths, sustainability only emerges where they adhere to strict conditions in terms of environmental and social outcomes, as well as related productivities. The SuWi approach and its applied analytical formulas have many potential uses in 21st-century policymaking for sustainability, including supporting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. It provides a unique and comprehensive theoretical and analytical framework that enables the categorisation of the complex challenges of sustainability and quantitative analysis of policy choices. Such foresight analysis could greatly assist in providing an evidence base for future development planning and policy formulation, ex ante of locking in a pathway. Further implementation in applied studies that explore a comprehensive indicator set, robust and consistent across all relevant dimensions, offers a promising opportunity to advance empirical analysis of key questions in sustainable development globally at a critical juncture in human history.

Public Education Investment, Economic Growth and Welfare: A Political Economy Analysis with Preference Heterogeneity

This study examines the politics of public education policy and its impact on economic growth and welfare under intergenerational altruism. The study considers an endogenous growth model with altruistic overlapping generations. Due to its significant role in promoting long-term economic expansion, we consider investment in public education to be an effective tool of productive government intervention. Nonetheless, public educational investment has been the subject of political disputes owing to its inherent intergenerational redistributive implications. Backed by the tendency of democratically elected governments to maintain their political power, the preferences of some particular individuals or group of individuals become more dominant in the political process of determining the level of public investment in education. In particular, governments are more concerned with the preferences of the median voter, or the current generation at large, because they, as electors, have the ability to determine the next government. This reality leads governments to exhibit a bias toward the desires of these people. As a result, such political considerations divert the economy from its optimal path of economic growth and reduce the welfare of future generations. This effect becomes more pronounced when individuals with lower levels of altruism toward their offspring assume a more influential position in the political decision-making process over the allocation of public funds for education. Our theoretical analyses demonstrate the implications for economic growth and welfare resulting from policy decisions made by democratically elected governments with inherent biases, as opposed to decisions made by an unbiased social planner.

Missing Transformational Place Leadership-Why High-Tech Industries are not Developed in Hong Kong

This paper adopts a place leadership perspective to examine the failed efforts of developing high-tech industries in Hong Kong. It demonstrates that it is challenging to change from transactional to transformational leadership and argues that the failure of developing high-tech industries in Hong Kong is partially attributable to the lack of transformational political and business leaderships. The political leaders' ineffectiveness in developing hightech industries in Hong Kong is also attributable to the regional/national/international institutional structural forces that have created both opportunities and challenges. This study contributes to the discussion on the critical value of transformational place leadership for creating new local/regional economic growth path and the embeddedness of place leadership in local/regional/national political and economic institutions.

Forecasting electricity consumption in China's Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration under the optimal economic growth path with low-carbon goals: Based on data of NPP-VIIRS-like nighttime light

To reflect the trend of electricity consumption (EC) in China's Pearl River Delta (PRD) under a balanced environment and economy, this paper proposes an EC forecasting framework from the perspective of optimal economic growth. The historical GDP statistics of the PRD are calibrated with data from the new "NPP-VIIRS-like" nighttime light dataset from 2000 to 2020, and two simulation scenarios of optimal economic growth are constructed according to the carbon emission reduction rate. Finally, based on the electricity data from 2000 to 2017, an error correction model is constructed to predict and compare the trend of EC in the PRD under different carbon emission scenarios. The results demonstrate the following. (1) The economic growth path under low-carbon constraints is more closely aligned with the actual economic development of the PRD. (2) The electricity demand required to sustain optimal economic growth in the PRD under low-carbon constraints is projected to reach saturation around 2037, approximately a decade earlier than the scenario without carbon constraints. The results of the projections are expected to guide future work on power system planning and economic development assessment in the context of carbon reduction.

The Value Expression and Driving Factors of Rural Spatial Ecological Products: A Case Study of B&Bs in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces, China

In the context of rural revitalization strategies and humans’ increasing leisure pursuits, rural tourism has begun to act as a new development path of rural economic growth and industrial transformation. This phenomenon generally occurs in rural areas around metropolitan areas, manifesting as the transformation or reconstruction of rural spaces. As a result, many new types of tertiary industry spaces utilizing rural land for leisure activities have emerged. We analyze the connotations of rural spatial and industrial transformation from the perspective of spatial production and innovatively propose that the transformed space is an ecological product, which includes three types in practice: industrial space, consumption space, and residential space. This study facilitates urban–rural integration and common prosperity. Given the lack of analysis of rural ecological products, especially rural spatial ecological products (e.g., rural B&Bs and other tertiary industry spaces), this study aims to explore the value expression and driving factors of rural spatial ecological products based on geo-visual (spatially visualizing) analytical tools looking at 10361 B&Bs in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces of China as typical examples. Our results show that (1) the value of rural spatial ecological products is reflected in the price that urban consumers are willing to pay for rural natural landscapes, which constitutes an ecological premium; and (2) the prices of rural spatial ecological products are strikingly different at multiple spatial scales, and this difference is related to the local ecological resources. This study provides insights into the rational allocation of the limited resources required for rural construction, which helps optimize the spatial planning of rural ecotourism and enhance the gametogenous development momentum of rural areas. At the same time, this study theoretically expands the research results of cultural ecosystem services.

Sustainability of Income Convergence in the European Union: Two Downturns—Two Different Stories

The aim of this paper is to apply the concept of marginal vertical income convergence to analyze the influence of the two last economic downturns (2007 and 2020) on the sustainability of the equalization of income levels within the European Union. The methodology used enables us to avoid some restrictions of the classical analysis of income convergence. Income convergence models were estimated using data from the period 1993–2022, excluding the impact of outliers. The results confirm that we can observe the progressive process of the absolute income convergence for EU members, but there are significant differences between countries’ contributions to the process. These differences are caused by different paths of economic growth, and different mean resilience to economic crises, as well as different patterns of income inequalities. Their proper recognition allows us to develop efficient policies aimed at social cohesion, reducing income inequalities (the 10th Sustainable Development Goal), and sustainable economic development. Additionally, the estimated models indicated a definite different impact of the last two economic shocks on the European process of income convergence. The first shock significantly slowed down the income convergence process, while the second one was practically neutral in this context.

How can the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration achieve the carbon peak target: Based on the perspective of an optimal stable economic growth path

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) has high concentrations of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and the conflict between its economic development and environmental protection is relatively prominent. Beginning from the ideal path of economic growth, this study proposes a framework for carbon emission prediction under the optimal economic growth path of the PRD via the cross-analysis of low-carbon economic analysis and artificial intelligence prediction. First, the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) is used to decompose carbon emissions to quantify the contribution rate of each influencing factor. Then, the genetic algorithm (GA) is introduced to optimize the backpropagation (BP) neural network to construct a GA-BP combined prediction model. Finally, the optimal economic growth rate models under different scenarios are constructed, and the carbon peak in the PRD under stable economic growth is accurately predicted. The results show that under the optimal economic growth path, the carbon peak in the PRD under the scenario with carbon constraints will be reached in 2029, while that under the scenario without carbon constraints will only begin to appear around 2035. Thus, the achievement of the carbon peak target in the PRD still requires insisting on stringent carbon emission reduction measures.

Analysis of Factors That Have Hampered Economic Growth in Italy

Italy's economic growth since 1990 faced domestic challenges, including structural issues, tax evasion, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and political corruption. Externally, as an EU member and participant in global economic forums, Italy's fiscal policy constraints and the need for a comprehensive strategy to foster economic development are evident. This article employs a multifaceted research approach to analyze the economic development of Italy in 1990. First, the documentary analysis includes a comprehensive review of the academic literature of various economists, the historical record of Italy and Europe, and the study of national institutions to understand the economic situation at that time. In addition, quantitative data analysis was conducted using economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, and investment and trade data. These data were statistically analyzed to identify trends and implications for the development of the Italian economy. A combination of literature and data analysis methods were used to comprehensively analyze Italy's economic development since 1990 and to provide an overall understanding of both internal and external factors that influenced its economic development. Finally come out with recommendations for Italy's economic development that will help it to develop effective policies and strategies that will lead to a more sustainable path of economic growth.

Green economy development in the Republic of Uzbekistan

The “green economy” is a new concept that has emerged in the last two decades, it is associated with sustainable development, calling for the simultaneous achievement of social, economic, and environmental goals. In the Republic of Uzbekistan, a “green” economy can be understood as an economy that leads to increased well-being of people and strengthening social justice while reducing environmental risks, efficiently using resources, and stimulating the conservation of the country’s natural ecosystems. The aim of the study is to compare the economies of Uzbekistan and China, and to extract positive aspects and apply them to the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The main research methods were the generalization and systematization of scientific and statistical data, their comparative analysis, synthesis, application of a systematic approach, data processing using methods of economic analysis, and the general theory of statistics. The object of the study is the Republic of Uzbekistan. For a long time, the development of the Republic of Uzbekistan, and most countries of the world, was focused on achieving economic growth through the irrational use of natural resources. Later it became clear that the path of economic growth must take into account environmental and social factors. The green economy is ensured by growth in income and employment, and public and private investments, which are aimed at reducing pollution emissions, creating jobs, and a favorable environment for the life and health of the population, increasing the efficiency of the use of energy, resources, etc. Currently, issues of the “green” economy are considered by various bodies and committees within international systems, government bodies of various countries, private organizations, and others.

Convergence and Paths of Economic Growth

Convergence and Paths of Economic Growth

1910년대 한반도 중북부 지역 상점 상인의 존재형태와 동향

Based on the list of stores listed in the appendix to the “Chosun Commercial comprehensive book”, this paper examines the existence and trends of store merchants in the 1910s. The store merchant in the “Chosun Commercial Comprehensive Book” were largely emerging merchant forces, who differed from traditional merchants. The first characteristic that is noteworthy in the existence of store merchants in the 1910s is the bias by industry. Looking at the composition of the detailed industry, four types, commission agency business, general store, trade store, and cloth store, accounted for about 71% of all commercial-based stores. In the case of industrial-based stores, manufacturing pharmacies and shoe manufacturing stores accounted for nearly half of all handicraft stores. This industry bias phenomenon was due to the survival strategy of Korean commercial and industrial capitalists to respond to the impact of colonialism. The second characteristic that is noteworthy in the existence of store merchants is that there were several types surrounding the supply and demand of products and sales channels. It can be classified into five main types. First, the type that is produced in Chosun and sold in Chosun. Second, the type that is produced in Chosun and sold to Japan. Third, the type that is produced in Chosun and sold to China. Fourth, the type that is produced in Japan and sold to Chosun. Fifth, the type that is produced in China and sold to Chosun. It can be seen that small and medium-sized capitalists were also gradually dividing their economic existence due to colonial economic policy. Meanwhile, some of the store merchants have expanded their economic activities by establishing modern companies or factories or investing in other industries such as mining and agriculture based on the capital earned from store management. This aspect can be said to show that the path of personal economic growth was not completely impossible even for small and medium-sized capitalists, at least until this period.

Economic Resilience of Polish Regions and its Determinants in the Period of Covid-19 Pandemic

The aim of the research was to identify, based on available literature, factors determining the level of economic resilience of Polish regions and then verify whether they actually contributed to a more effective amortization of the demand and supply shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The thesis was put forward that regions with a diversified and competitive production and employment structure experienced the negative effects of the economic slowdown to a lesser extent in the initial period of the pandemic and built their production potential faster in the following years. Based on the results obtained, the relationship between the level of diversification of the production structure and the economic resilience of the studied regions was not confirmed. On the other hand, it was noticed that voivodeships with a competitive production structure were more likely to experience a decline in the growth rate of GDP per capuita in the year of the outbreak of the pandemic. At the same time, in subsequent periods they returned to a relatively dynamic path of economic growth more quickly.

Research on the Mechanism of Green Finance on Economic Growth

Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development has been rapidly changing, and has made great achievements that have attracted the world's attention. However, China's long-term implementation of the crude growth mode has certainly brought rapid economic growth, but in the long run, it has brought very serious environmental pollution and huge consumption of energy. In the face of increasingly severe resource consumption and environmental pollution, the development of green finance is an inevitable choice to improve the ecological environment, promote the transformation of economic structure and achieve sustainable economic development. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of green finance on economic growth, industrial structure adjustment and energy saving and emission reduction in China, and to explore the mechanism effect of developing green finance to promote the green growth of China's economy. How to promote green sustainable development and high-quality economic growth is an important issue in contemporary Chinese economic development. Through green investment, green finance promotes the green transformation of polluting enterprises, the ecological industrial structure and green technological innovation, and thus has an important impact on the high-quality growth of China's economy. By combing the relevant literature on green finance and economic growth at home and abroad, this project systematically analyzes the comprehensive impacts of green finance on the conduction path of economic growth, based on the premise of the externalities of green finance, the micro-mechanisms of green finance's impact on economic growth, the transmission paths and the organic combination of regional heterogeneity. On the basis of empirical research, we explore the mechanism and effect of developing green finance to promote China's economic development, and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote economic growth with green finance at four levels: national, local government, financial institutions and enterprises.

Assessment of the conditions for the development of the photovoltaic investment in the countries of the Visegrad Group – Comparative study of the researched countries

This paper presents the most important directions of contemporary changes taking place and their conditions on the solar energy market in the Visegrad Group countries. The aim of the article was to identify the factors influencing the development of solar energy in the V4 and assess their impact over the period of 2010–2018. In addition, presents changes in the photovoltaic market. The development of this field of energy is to, on the one hand, ensure the right amount of energy, and, minimize the negative impact on the natural environment, on the other. Such an approach is particularly important energy security and counteracting climate change contributing to significant economic losses. The development of solar energy systems is uneven, particularly in countries with similar economic and social conditions. The dynamic panel model using the generalized method of moments was applied. The changes occurring in this market showed a high variability of dependencies and the necessity of continuous monitoring of the transformations and effects of the policy pursued. The study points to the importance of economic conditions, in particular subsidies for investors, economic growth and the development of renewable energy sources in stimulating the development of solar energy. It showed the sense of ensuring a stable path of economic growth. The role of subsidies, often used in this market, is ambiguous and their effects are spread over time and show different directions of impact in particular time intervals. The article allows for a better understanding of the conditions for the development of photovoltaic investments, so that in the future photovoltaics can become a global source of energy. The results provide valuable information for shaping policies aimed at increasing the use of renewable energy sources. The research showed the great significance importance for the implementation of the development in accordance with the microeconomic model.

Examining the contribution of fiscal policy on economic growth: Analytical insights from Pakistan

To better understand the influence of fiscal policy (FP) on economic growth (EG) in Pakistan, this study investigates the importance of the amount of output produced by different factors of production in Pakistan's economy. The annual time series data has been collected from the State Bank of Pakistan and World Bank Data-Base from the years (2001-2020). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used for empirical research to assess the significant factors of EG, and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test is used to ensure that all of the variables are stationary. Using annual time series data from 2001 to 2020. Based on these findings, this study recommends adopting a proactive fiscal policy framework that incorporates expansionary measures. We argue that this strategy has the capacity to stimulate and maintain Pakistan's economic growth path, thereby fostering a more promising and prosperous future. Moreover, the study found the impact of government expenditures (GE), gross fixed capital creation (GFCC), and direct and indirect taxes on Gross domestic Product (GDP). Additionally, findings showed that government expenditures, gross fixed capital creation, indirect, and direct taxes have a strong effect on economic growth. It is argued that an expansionary fiscal policy in the future could greatly benefit Pakistan's economic growth.

Social capability and long-term sustained growth

Long-term growth is not a simple transition along the path of equilibrium growth, but a process of the interplay of technological, economic, institutional, and social factors. Social capability is an important prerequisite for late-developing countries to catch up with leading countries, and the combination of social capability and the technology gap co-determine the potential of a country to improve productivity through catching up. This paper clarifies the theoretical mechanism of social capability to promote economic growth, and reveals that accountability quality may become capability gap which impedes the convergence of economic growth of the low-income countries by analyzing the panel data from 166 countries over the period 1996–2019. This paper believes that with the rising income level, it is the general path of sustained economic growth to promote the modernization of economic structure while ensuring the supply of goods and effective social incentives.

Carbon dioxide emissions and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: evidence from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

We examined the relationship of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions with real per capita GDP and energy consumption in the ASEAN region using panel data from 1960 to 2021. We employed various panel unit root tests (IPS, Fisher-ADF, Fisher-PP) and panel cointegration tests (Kao and Pedroni). We find robust empirical evidence supporting the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, suggesting the existence of a per capita income turning point (approximately USD 4,808.85) where CO2 emissions and real income begin to decouple. This suggests the presence of an environmentally sustainable economic growth path beyond this threshold. The study highlights the importance of a reduction of fossil fuel use and the adoption of coordinated strategic plans among ASEAN member states to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.