How can the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration achieve the carbon peak target: Based on the perspective of an optimal stable economic growth path

Abstract

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) has high concentrations of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and the conflict between its economic development and environmental protection is relatively prominent. Beginning from the ideal path of economic growth, this study proposes a framework for carbon emission prediction under the optimal economic growth path of the PRD via the cross-analysis of low-carbon economic analysis and artificial intelligence prediction. First, the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) is used to decompose carbon emissions to quantify the contribution rate of each influencing factor. Then, the genetic algorithm (GA) is introduced to optimize the backpropagation (BP) neural network to construct a GA-BP combined prediction model. Finally, the optimal economic growth rate models under different scenarios are constructed, and the carbon peak in the PRD under stable economic growth is accurately predicted. The results show that under the optimal economic growth path, the carbon peak in the PRD under the scenario with carbon constraints will be reached in 2029, while that under the scenario without carbon constraints will only begin to appear around 2035. Thus, the achievement of the carbon peak target in the PRD still requires insisting on stringent carbon emission reduction measures.