Economic Growth In Iran Research Articles

Fertılıty Changıng: Effects On Economıc Development In Iran (Case Study: 1956-2006)

Abstract. Background: The science of demography is very new in Iran, as its introduction to Iran and the start of demographic investigations goes back to half a century ago. Because of its importance and effects, it seems now, that the time is ripe that special attention should be paid for the capacities of this science in medium and long term planning and decision making. Fertility is one of the essential subjects dealt by demography, as the survival and continuation of the population have their roots in it. The importance of fertility for demographer is to that extent that they consider it as one of the four vital events and since it directly affects the increase and decrease of population, therefore, fertility is regarded the important factor in population changes. The purpose of the present research is to examine undesirable consequences of uncontrolled fertilities and their negative effects on the economic growth of Iran. A study of Iranian age pyramid of population explicitly indicates that the trend of fertility is entangled in a state of disequilibrium and unplanned for years, so that, during 1977-87 years, child bearing had its highest record in the history of the population of Iran, which caused an average rate of 3.9 percent yearly growth. The most important outcome was an increase in age group of 0-4 years in these years. After this period, the economic and social crisis in one hand and governments awareness of family planning on the other hand, caused a decline in the fertility trend. This ultimately created an inflationary age group continuously ascending in the age pyramid. Materials and Methods: Data related to this research are on the basis of the information and statistics presented by Statistical Center of Iran and study and analysis of the censuses carried out in Iran. Result: According to the last census carried out in the year 2006 in Iran, the largest age groups of population are those of 15-19 and 20-24 years old, which indicates an adolescence population. Although this may be considered as a promising phenomenon which conform foundations for development in Iran, it may also create difficulties' in the process of the development of Iran, in the absence of favorable grounds for development. Another important point is the movement of population inflation higher up to older age groups. In the other word, Iran is rapidly progressing towards population ageing. Appropriate laws and proper planning is needed in this respect. Conclusion: In this essay, effort is made to avoid any prejudgments. Firstly, the past present and future of the fertility and population in Iran are studied. Then, consequences of the uncontrolled fertilities on the economic growth of Iran are examined. Population forecast show that population of Iran will be a very aged population in 32 years from now. The process of economic growth in Iran is confronting concerns and difficulties due to above mentioned population changes in the past, present and future. This is much worrying when it is seen that there is no any special planning by governments to benefit and use capabilities and capacities of the population in the process of growth.

The Impact of Tax Rates on Economic Growth of Iran in the Years 1981-2010

Several studies have shown that the country economy is based on oil and fossil fuel based, very vulnerable to factors such as war and sanctions. In recent years the Iranian government is trying to reduce dependence on oil and expanding the tax revenue. In this study the use of tax revenues, the effect of three types of tax rates including corporate tax rate, business tax rate and indirect taxes rate (each share of taxes in GDP) on economic growth in Iran during the Thirty Years' 1981-2010 with using of Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) examined. In addition to these three variables, other variables such as annual population growth rate, inflation rate and degree of trade openness on economic growth is examined. The results suggest that the impact of the increase in the rates of these three types of taxes on economic growth is negative and significant, and for an increase in the rate of corporate tax rate, business tax rate and indirect taxes rate by 2/4 and 2/8 and 1/8 of economic growth is reduced. The results also reflect the positive impact of population growth rate, trade openness rate and the negative impact of inflation rate on economic growth in Iran.

Study of Symmetric and Asymmetric Cointegration relationship among the effective factors on economic growth in Iran

This paper attempts to study the effective factors on economic growth using the techniques practiced in time series econometrics in Iran. To this end, first the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and then the Atuo-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test were applied respectively to study the stationarity of the pattern variables, and long run and equilibrium relation and this long term relationship is estimated. The results are concordant with theoretical expectations, so that variables of exports growth, imports growth (imports of intermediate and capital goods), labor force growth, capital growth and human capital growth have positive and significant relation with economic growth. The pattern studied, is a logarithm linear regression, the coefficient results show the elasticity of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) variable in comparison with independent variables. In addition to this, according to the estimation of Error Correcation Model (ECM), adjustment indicator coefficient factor is equal to -0.71 which is indicative of quick adjustment of fluctuations in economic growth, so that every year 71 percent of fluctuations are eliminated. Also asymmetric cointegration relationship (nonlinear relationship) among pattern variables are investigated using Enders and Siklos method. To this end, Threshold autoregressive (TAR) is used. The result of this estimate pattern indicates the existence of asymmetric cointegration relationship among variables.

Oil, government's budget and economic growth in Iran

Recognition of economic growth determinants is one of the most important concerns for economists. In an oil exporting country, oil revenue plays the significant role for that economy alongside other economic growth determinants. This paper attempts to provide a clear picture of the actual role of oil in the Iranian economy by documentation of stylised facts regarding oil and economic growth. Available evidences suggest that oil revenue has a profound influence on the economy in different layers. Since oil revenue goes directly to public treasury and is expended by the government, it seems that government's management on this revenue would be a determinant for the economy. Accordingly, this paper offers an index, to evaluate this management, as government savings over oil revenue (GSOR). The higher level of GSOR shows the better situation. Finally, findings of a VAR approach including this indicator show that financing government expenditures by non-oil revenue, has positive effects on economic growth.

Does Economic Growth Reduce Income Inequality in Iran? WALS Approach

This paper explores the effect of economic growth on income inequality in Iran using annual data over the period 1976-2010. Weighted-average least square (WALS) approach has employed to analyze the effect of economic growth on income inequality. The results indicate that economic growth in Iran is inclined to more inequality. Thus economic growth policy needs to be revised fundamentally.

Effect of Growth Factors in the Construction Industry Clients on Economic Growth (Case Study: Iran)

According to international experience, we can say that the growth of the client environment is related to certain factors including economic, political, legal, technology, and infrastructure. Each of these factors has its elements and functions. In this respect, the main issues of the Islamic Republic of Iran is Creating a suitable working environment. Studies conducted in the client, indicating that the formation of the workspace is current. In this study, we assessed the impact of environmental factors on economic growth in the construction industry clients. According to the research goal, we investigate after many studies on the factors and assumptions regarding the data from fieldwork and a questionnaire using t, according to the results, the primary and secondary hypotheses were confirmed and all were accepted. We found that client environment growth factors have impact on Economic growth. In the end, we were ranking factors using two-factor Friedman to determine priorities of these factors on the effectiveness. According to Friedman test, economic factors were in the first place in effectiveness on economic growth in Iran.

Analyzing Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment on Private Sector in Economic Growth of Iran

The objective of this paper is to investigate and analyze the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth, and the influence of FDI on private sector in stimulating economic and industrial growth in Iran. The general assertion in financial literature supports the construct that FDI is the prime modality for stimulating economic and industrial development in developing nations. As an empirical work, we have studied the direct and indirect effects of FDI on economic growth of Iran during the period 1970-2012. Results of regression model estimation have showed that coefficient of FDI (foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP)) wasn’t significant, but interaction between FDI and private sector has a significant impact on economic growth of Iran at 5% significant level in the period 1970-2012. This finding show that impacts of FDI on economic growth depends on the extent of the development of the private sector. Private sector acts as a channel for the linkage effect to be realized and create positive spillovers. Also, our findings indicate that trade openness is positively and significantly correlated with economic growth of Iran in the selected period.

Long-Term Financial Development Model According to Economic Growth in Iran

This study has done to evaluating Long-term financial development on economic growth in Iran according to a model. The population of this study is Islamic republic of Iran economic information during 1981- 2011. In order to investigate the research hypotheses were used the path analysis model and Structural model. We review and test hypotheses through the path analysis model. After explaining the model and data collection, model estimation begins with a set of known relationships between measured variables. The path models as a logical extension of multiple is regression models. The ARDL and bounds testing approach to integration was adopted to estimate the long run relationship and long run dynamic parameters of the model. The test suggests that there exists an integrating relationship variables. Findings show that, financial sector should initiate new policy to boost the process of capitalization to raise economic growth by distributing financial resources to competent and profit oriented projects.

Investigating the Effects of Islamic Banking Contracts on Economic Growth of Iran

This paper has aimed to investigate the effects of Islamic banking loans thereby different contracts which are permitted by sharia on GDP of Iran during (2000 to 2010) with seasonal data. In this research for estimating the function of long run relation, we use ARDL1 and VAR2 approach .Result in the former case reveals that there is a meaningful and positive effect of contracts on GDP. It also shows that the Qard Hasan (beneficence loans) elasticity of GDP is significantly different from other contracts. As in long run Qard Hasanhas the most effect on GDP afterward participating contracts and direct investment (financing) and finally trading contracts has the least effect on GDP.While in the latter case results show that the impacts of a permanent shock to the growth rate of loans on economic growth are or so positive for all contracts. And that shock will be wasted after ten periods (seasons). The impact of structural shock to the loan on liquidity is positive but decreasing. According to the results we can declare that an increment in participating contracts and Qard Hasan would enhance the GDP and influence it positively. If we decrease the dependency of trading contracts and increase the participating contracts and Qard Hasan, economic growth won't necessarily decrease.

The Effect of Government Size on Economic Freedom and Economic Growth in Iran

This paper investigates the effect of government consumption spending as a share of GDP on economic freedom in Iran. The impact of size of government on economic freedom is similar to a Armey curve which can be used to determine the optimum government size (see Barro, 1990; and Armey, 1995). This paper examines the relationship between economic freedom and size of government. Using GMM approach, the unemployment and productivity is influence on the economic freedom and according to the results growth of investment and non-oil export is positive effect on economic freedom and unemployment is negative effect on economic freedom. JEL classification: C33; H50; O40; F41

The Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Iran

This study has done to evaluating the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Iran. The Long-term relationship was our goal. The population of this study is Islamic republic of Iran economic information during 1981- 2011. The ARDL and bounds testing approach to integration was adopted to estimate the long run relationship and long run dynamic parameters of the model. The test suggests that there exists an integrating relationship variables. Findings show that, financial sector should initiate new policy to boost the process of capitalization to raise economic growth by distributing financial resources to competent and profit oriented projects.

Israeli planning in the Shah's Iran: a forgotten episode

In the 1970s, while the rest of the world was undergoing recession, vast economic growth in Iran, leading to fast urbanization, generated a growing international building market in which Israeli construction firms and architects also participated, benefiting from the good bilateral relationships at the time. To examine the experience of Israeli architects working in Iran and how it influenced their professional practice, this paper focuses on two projects planned and built simultaneously by Israeli teams. The Navy project was comprised of three massive housing estates and public amenities for the Iranian Navy's troops and families on the coast of the Persian Gulf. The Eskan Towers in Tehran was a complex of residential luxury towers and a commercial centre catering for the Iranian elite. Review of these cases indicates that national knowledge was not always the basis for transnational planning, and that the international arena itself became the source of knowledge and flow. In the Navy project, the architect derived his ideas from professional practices acquired back home, while in the Eskan Towers project the team was confronted with the free-market economy and a globalized practice.

Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Iran

Always, financial sector has a central role in development and economic growth. Hence the relationship between financial development and economic growth appears to be essential. This article examines the impact of financial development on economic growth, with consider other variables affecting the economic growth, such as ratio of commercial, domestic investment and interest rate. The time period used in this study is related to the years 1980 to 2013. It also explains their method of distribution breaks (ARDL) is used to assess relationships between variables. This study estimates a relationship between variables within a Auto regressive Distributed Lag framework over the periods. The results of this study represents a significant and positive impact of financial development on economic growth. Also domestic investment has a positive and significant impact on economic growth, and Interest rate has a significant negative impact on economic growth.

Banking and Stock Markets in Iran: Are They Complements or Substitutes

In this study, the quarterly data from 1991:4 to 2011:3 have been used to investigate the effect of the relation between banking sector and stock market on economic growth in Iran. The break point obtained by Gregory and Hansen (1996) appears in the first quarter of 2005, which coincides with the period of the remarkable increase in oil and gas revenues. The results of Johansen test shows that higher export income in Iran decreases the substitution of banking and stock market. On the other hand, the relation between turnover and real output decreases after the break point. In addition, the relation between real output and the volatility is negative which reveals that the stock market volatility is a destructive factor for the economic growth. After the break point, considering bonds in the model does not change the results. However, it is a complementary relation between banking sectors and stock markets before the break point.

Causal Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran during the Years 1978 - 2011

Achieving high and stable economic growth rate of any country is important. The deleterious effects, particularly on inflation and economic growth are the major problem countries. Therefore, researchers have attempted to explain how the relationship between inflation and economic growth has been concentrated. The hypothesis of this study is two-way causal relationship between inflation and economic growth in Iran during the years 2011-1978 Co-integration test method can be applied in the study of government spending, inflation as measured by CPI indicator, investment and total population GDP as independent variables and the dependent variable is used. The results of the tests show that the model estimates the relationship between inflation and economic growth in this research is one-sided. The inflation of the economy, there is a significant negative correlation between economic growth and inflation, but the relationship does not exist.

Causal Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran during the Years 1978 - 2011

Causal Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran during the Years 1978 - 2011

The effects of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth: a case study of the Iranian economy

This study attempts to re-investigate the role of oil and non-oil exports in economic growth in Iran using the multivariate cointegration and Granger causality methods. This study covers the annual data from 1970 to 2008. Throughout this study, our empirical results indicate that the variables are cointegrated and the Granger causality test reveals evidence of uni-directional causality from oil and non-oil exports to economic growth. Therefore, we confirm that the export-led growth hypothesis is valid in Iran. However, results show that oil export has an inverse effect on economic growth, thus we suggest encouraging non-oil export activities in order to stimulate long-term economic growth in Iran.

The Study of the Effect of Investment in the Agricultural Sector on Iran Economic Growth in Comparison with Other Sectors

In recent decades, many theoretical discussions about the agricultural sector position at the global level among economists and politicians in Development area have been performed. Clearly, all parties of debate agree upon the strategic importance of the agricultural sector and the necessity of attention to it. The aim of this study is to measure and analyze the investment effects in the agricultural sector on Iran economic growth in comparison with the other economic sectors. The calculations have been performed by using available data of time series 1986–2012 and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. Results of the study showed that there is long-term relationship between economic growth and investment in the agricultural sector, investment in the agricultural sector has a positive effect on economic growth and has a positive effect on the production of other sectors and the agricultural sector does not have proper position among the various sectors of the economy as well.

Examining the Impact of Transportation on Economic Growth in Iran (With a Focus on Marine Transportation)

Transportation is one of the substantial components of national economy. In this regard, marine transportation plays a crucial role in national economy with a share of 90 percent of total transportation. The Iranian marine transportation share is 90 percent as well. So it needs special attention. Also, the nature of this section is so that it has an appropriate employment capacity whether direct or indirect. This research tries to survey the marine, land and air transportation in different parts of Iranian economy using the last published reports and statistics by different relevant centres given the position of this section. The underlying model used in this paper is an endogenous growth model investigating the relationship between marine transportation investment and Iran's economic growth during 1986–2009. The results of estimating the underlying endogenous model showed that the marine transportation investment growth variables had a positive and significant relationship with the country's economic growth trend. The other interesting point obtained from the estimation of this model implies a high and significant effect of oil income's growth on economic growth.

Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Iran: An Empirical Study

This study examines the impact of foreign trade on economic growth in Iran. Using time series data, a regression analysis was carried out using E. Views statistical software. Results showed that non-oil exports, industrial and agricultural value added positively impacted on economic growth. Imports had a negative impact on growth, while exchange rate was wrongly signed.