Economic Growth In Portugal Research Articles

Manufacturing production as a source of growth: the case of Portugal

The aim of this paper is to test the relationship between manufacturing production and economic growth in Portugal from the 1950s to the present day, following Nicholas Kaldor’s (1908–1986) thinking, which assumes that manufacturing is the true engine of the economic activity of a country. By estimating a series of econometric models, including a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, it was possible to identify a positive relationship between growth and manufacturing production since the 1950s. The results also show that each increase of 1 percentage point (pp) in real growth rate of the production of basic metallurgical industries and manufacture of metallic products in a certain year t−1 for the period 1956–2019, caused an increase of 0.07 pp in the Portuguese economic growth during a following year t on average. We hope that these findings will stimulate new and interesting research regarding the important issues of manufacturing production and economic growth.

Key Drivers of Economic Growth in Portugal and the Eurozone

This paper examines the influence of gross household disposable income, tax burden, and savings rates on economic growth in Portugal, providing a comparative analysis with the Euro Zone. Drawing on empirical data from 2000 to 2022, the study employs Pearson correlations, regression models, and ARIMA forecasts to analyse the relationships among these variables. The findings indicate a significant positive correlation between disposable income and economic growth, while Portugal's higher tax burden has a more pronounced negative impact on growth than the Euro Zone. Additionally, the research highlights the critical role of savings rates in driving economic growth, particularly in Portugal, where lower savings rates are partly attributable to the financial system's development. The results suggest that policies aimed at increasing disposable income, reducing the tax burden, and fostering savings could substantially boost economic growth in Portugal, offering insights into the broader determinants of growth in developed economies.

Falling labour share and anaemic growth in Portugal: A post-Keynesian econometric analysis

AbstractIn recent decades, the labour share has experienced a downward trend in Portugal at the same time as a weaker and anaemic growth pattern. This seems to suggest that the fall in the labour share represents an important constraint on Portuguese economic growth, which is contrary to the orthodox claims around wage restraint policies – namely, that such policies are a necessary condition of improved macroeconomic performance, owing to their positive effects on private investment through higher profits and on net exports through reduced unit labour costs and a corresponding rise in competitiveness. This study assesses the relationship between labour share growth and economic growth by performing a time series econometric analysis focused on Portugal from 1971 to 2021. Findings show that labour share growth has positively impacted on economic growth in Portugal, which is in line with heterodox claims and particularly with post-Keynesian economics on the beneficial effects on private consumption played by the growth of wages. Findings also confirm that the Portuguese economy has followed a wage-led growth regime instead of a profit-led growth regime; that is, a rise in wages increases aggregate demand and, therefore, boosts economic growth because its beneficial effect on private consumption more than compensates for a prejudicial effect on private investment and on net exports. The study points out the urgent need to adopt public policies to support the growth of wages to avoid more decades of dismal growth and a new ‘secular stagnation’ in Portugal.

Does the financial system support economic growth in times of financialisation? Evidence for Portugal

ABSTRACT This paper conducts a time series econometric analysis in order to examine empirically the relationship between the financial system and economic growth in Portugal from 1977 to 2016. The Portuguese financial system has experienced a strong wave of privatisations, liberalisations and deregulations since the adhesion of Portugal to the European Economic Community in 1986, which has not favoured a sustained path of strong economic growth since then. The paper estimates a linear growth model and a non-linear growth model, which includes four proxies for the financial system (money supply, credit, financial value added and stock market capitalisation) and four further control variables (inflation, government consumption, trade openness and education). The paper finds a negative linear relationship between the banking system and Portuguese economic growth, a positive linear relationship between the stock markets and Portuguese economic growth, a concave quadratic relationship between the banking system and Portuguese economic growth, and a convex quadratic relationship between the stock markets and Portuguese economic growth. This suggests that Portuguese policy makers should canalise efforts to decrease the importance of banking system and to increase the importance of stock markets in order to support more robust economic growth in the coming years.

Corruption and Economic Growth: The Case of Portugal

In this paper we investigate the impact of corruption on economic growth in Portugal over the period 1980-2018. The empirical approach makes use of a VAR model inspired by the standard Cobb-Douglas aggregate production function. The VAR model includes the capital stock, hours worked, total factor productivity and the corruption perceptions index (CPI) of Transparency International. The CPI combines several sources of information on the level of corruption in each country. The scale of this index goes from 0, the highest level of corruption, to 10, the lowest level. The magnitude of the estimated effect of corruption on economic growth in the unrestricted VAR model is large (and positive), but statistically not significantly different from zero. However, the results from the estimation of a structural VAR model with economically plausible long-run restrictions indicate modest gains from reducing corruption.

As mudanças económicas do pós-guerra e a questão alimentar em Portugal: padrões de consumo, tendências sociais e assimetrias regionais

É praticamente impossível, ao estudar o crescimento económico português entre 1950 e 1973, não mencionar as mudanças sociais. Contudo, a literatura especializada não tem conferido a devida importância aos aspetos relacionados com o quotidiano, e, especificamente com a alimentação no período do Estado Novo. É nosso propósito, com este ensaio, identificar e caracterizar os novos caminhos da vida quotidiana em Portugal no segundo pós-guerra, tentando responder a duas questões principais: como é que o desempenho económico português afetou a indústria alimentar e como a população percecionou as mudanças, construiu alternativas ou manteve certas práticas nas várias regiões do país.

Production function with electricity consumption and policy implications in Portugal

Using a sample of quarterly data, we investigate the effect of electricity consumption, capital formation and financial development on economic growth in Portugal. A positive (negative) shock of electricity consumption is estimated to have increased (decreased) economic growth. Economic growth is positively affected by positive shock stems in capital. A positive (negative) shock in financial development declines (increases) economic growth. These findings reveal that (a) Portugal is still an energy-dependent economy; (b) energy is one of the major inputs for economic growth and development; (c) a conservation energy policy should not be implemented because energy is an important driver of growth; (d) economic growth enhances capital formation and not the opposite. Hence, it appears more relevant to boost economic growth before enhancing capital formation; (e) financial development does not appear to be an important catalyst for economic growth. Findings also highlight (f) the relevance of the recent energy policy implemented in Portugal and (g) the need to limit energy imports by means of producing electricity through renewable energy to reduce the external debt level in Portugal, especially after the 2008 crisis.

Regional growth in Portugal: Assessing the contribution of earnings and education inequality

Regional economic growth in Portugal has mainly been studied from the perspective of convergence with data ending by the early 2000’s. The country as a whole has stopped converging to the output levels of the richest European countries by this period and has also become one of the most unequal EU member-states in terms of income distribution in the meantime. It is thus important to analyze the growth performance at the regional level in a more recent period, 1995- 2007, emphasizing regional disparities in inequality as explanatory factors. This study examines the relationship between inequality and regional growth in Portugal at NUTS III level exploring the explanatory power of earnings and education inequality measures computed with data from the Quadros de Pessoal database. The results point to a positive relationship between initial inequality and regional growth, stronger for education than for earnings inequality, but with earnings inequality measures revealing a higher explanatory power. Moreover, there is evidence that it is inequality at the top end of the distribution that is relevant to explain regional growth, a result that reinforces the higher propensities to save of the richer and the incentives mechanisms of transmission from inequality to growth. Additionally, the evidence on the existence of convergence among Portuguese NUTS III regions during the period under analysis is mixed. These findings are robust to the introduction of most additional control variables and the consideration of alternative measures of earnings and education inequality.

Explaining Italy's economic growth: A balance-of-payments approach with internal and external imbalances and non-neutral relative prices

Thirlwall's Law (Thirlwall, 1979) considers that growth can be constrained by the balance-of-payments when the current account is in permanent deficit. The law focuses on external imbalances as impediments to growth and does not consider the case where internal imbalances emerging from budget deficits or public debt can also constrain growth. The recent European public debt crisis of peripheral countries (including Italy) shows that when internal imbalances are out of control they can constrain growth and domestic demand in a severe way. Recently, Soukiazis et al. (2013) developed a model – henceforth the SCA model – that takes into account both internal and external imbalances and where relative prices are not neutral in the pace of economic growth. The SCA model proved to be accurate in explaining economic growth in Portugal. The aim of the present paper is to apply the SCA model to Italy and check its precision for explaining the growth path in this country. Italy is an interesting case study of a larger economy with a lack of growth in the last decade facing serious internal imbalances caused by high deficit and public debt. Our empirical analysis shows that Italy grew at a slower rate than its potential capacity due to supply constraints. Policies designed at increasing external competitiveness and lowering the costs of financing the economy are shown to be effective strategies to achieve higher growth.

Should Portuguese economy invest in defense spending? A revisit

In this paper, we investigate the causal relationship between defense spending and economic growth in Portugal during the period of 1980–2010. We apply the ARDL bounds testing approach in the presence of structural break. The ARDL–ECM estimation results disclose that the relations between defense spending, capital, labor and economic growth are country specific. The interesting finding of this study is that there is a U-shaped relationship that exists between defense spending and economic growth. In addition, the unidirectional causality from defense spending to economic growth exists in the case of Portugal. Therefore, defense spending can play an important role in economic development of Portugal.

Fiscal Policy And Economic Growth In PIIGS Countries: An Empirical Assessment

This paper studies the dynamic relationships between government revenues, government expenditures and economic growth in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIIGS henceforth). To this end we use a multivariate econometric model based on the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) procedure. Our empirical results reveal a bidirectional relationship between government revenues and government expenditures in Portugal only. Greece is the only county in which government expenditures Granger cause government revenues. Therefore, there is no evidence for spend-and-tax hypothesis for three countries of our sample. For Italy there is a unique unidirectional relationship running from government revenues to GDP while a unique unidirectional relationship was found running from government revenues to government expenditures for Ireland. Results for Spain show a double bidirectional relationships running from government revenues to GDP and from government expenditures to GDP. Moreover, there exists a unidirectional causal relationship between government revenues and government expenditures. Again, there is no evidence for tax-and-spend hypothesis for three countries of our sample.

Re-investigating the electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal

In the previous decades, a number of studies have been conducted to analyse the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the Portuguese economy. However, the evidence remains controversial because the previous studies do not provide clear causality evidence. This might be attributed to the omitted variables bias because most previous studies only focus on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in a bi-variate model. This paper attempts to re-investigate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Portugal using a multivariate model. Based on the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the Granger causality test within the vector error-correction model (VECM), our empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration among the variables. Moreover, there is evidence of bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in the short- and long-run. This suggests that energy is an important source of economic growth in Portugal. Therefore, energy conservation policies should not be implemented because it would deteriorate the process of economic growth and development of the Portuguese economy.

Explaining the interrelations between health, education and standards of living in Portugal. A simultaneous equation approach

The aim of this paper is to analyse the links between health status, education and economic growth in Portugal. Focus is given to the achievements made in infant mortality rate, which represents the most significant reduction among the OECD countries in the last decades. While this very positive performance is a direct consequence of the investments made in the health sector, it is also important to note that it is a result of other socioeconomic factors outside the health system (mainly in the education system) that have contributed significantly to an improvement of the living conditions. So, to a complete understanding of the Portuguese infant mortality decline we must consider in our analysis the potential cumulative causation effects between health, education and per capita income growth. Having this in mind, in this paper we use a three equation model to determine simultaneously the interactions between infant mortality rate, education and per capita income growth. Our empirical evidence shows that the proposed model is adequate to highlight the potential links between these core factors.

Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis

The purpose of this study is to re-visit the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Portugal over the sample period of 1974 to 2008 in a multivariate framework. The results of this study indicate that the variables are cointegrated and the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Portugal is bi-directional. Uni-directional causalities running from energy price and real income to employment are also found. Contrary to earlier studies, our results indicate that Portugal is an energy-dependent economy and energy-conservation policies could be detrimental to its economic growth and development. Therefore, renewable energy sources such as bio-fuel, solar power, hydro power, wind power, and wave power should be aggressively explored to ensure sufficient supply of energy to support the growth of the Portuguese economy in an environment-friendly manner.

Democracy and Growth: Evidence for Portugal (1960–2001)

This paper examines the causal relationship between democracy and economic growth in Portugal over the period 1960–2001 within a VAR model with four variables: output, physical and human capital, and an index of democracy. We apply Granger causality tests and impulse-response functions to analyze causality and check how unexpected changes influence growth. Our main findings point to a bi-directional causality between democracy and growth. The impulse-response analysis suggests that in the short run democracy has a negative effect on growth in Portugal, but in the long run this effect is positive. Furthermore, we find that democracy also causes economic growth by increasing educational attainment.

What causes economic growth in Portugal: exports or inward FDI?

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze possible causal relationships between exports, inward foreign investment and economic growth in Portugal and identify their direction.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a three‐stage procedure based on unit root, cointegration and causality tests applied to annual data from 1977 to 2004.FindingsThe paper reveals that exports and FDI foster growth in the long‐run while in the short‐run there is a bi‐directional causal relationship between FDI and growth and a univariate causal relationship running from FDI to exports. FDI is viewed as a major determinant of economic growth, both directly and indirectly, via exports for both long and short‐run cases.Practical implicationsThe results provide important corollaries in terms of policy implications and their relevance is far from being parochial. Some lessons in terms of domestic policies can be drawn by many countries that are now becoming EU members with economic structures and problems similar to those presented by the Portuguese economy in the 1980s.Originality/valueThis paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the Portuguese economy during the 1977‐2004 period, over which many efforts were developed in order to increase the external competition of the economy, in particular in the context of community structural frameworks. In order to reinforce the inflows of FDI, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers to FDI and the reforms of the labour market which started in the early 2000s.

The role of science parks and business incubators in converging countries: Evidence from Portugal

Researchers and economic development professionals have linked the technology transfer and high-tech firm output from science parks (SP) and business incubators (BI) to economic growth, as well as job and wealth creation in developed and developing countries. Yet little has been said about their role in converging economies, such as Portugal. The authors analyse the population of the Portuguese SPs and BIs in promoting economic growth using the case study method. Further, the authors search for the success factors of Portuguese SPs and BIs. This initial study suggests a modest contribution of SPs and BIs to economic growth in Portugal. Moreover, our findings confirm university links and suitability of management to be critical to an SP or BI success in this converging economy. We also discuss how SPs and BIs might make better contributions to economic growth in converging economies.

Institutions and economic development in Brazil

This paper investigates the effects of institutional reforms in Brazil. It first provides a comparative assessment of the level of institutional development of Brazil with other Latin American countries such as Chile and Argentina. It considers institutional indicators on “ doing private business”, including those related to the start up costs, employment rigidity, the expropriation of private investment and bankruptcy law. In general, Brazil presents a lower level of institutional development than Chile and Argentina. As an example, the number of procedures to start a business in Brazil is roughly twice as large as in Chile. We evaluate the importance of institutional differences on economic development using data for a wide cross-section of countries. As in Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson [Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369–1398], we use the European mortality rate in the colonial period and the “legal origin” to exploit exogenous variation in the level of institutions. We identify issues where institutional reforms are likely to significantly affect per capita gross domestic product (GDP), the ratio of private credit to GDP and the ratio of investment to GDP. We then construct three indices developed in Tavares [Tavares, J. (2004). Institutions and economic growth in Portugal: a quantitative exploration. Portuguese Economic Journal, 3, 49–79] that measure the potential of institutional reforms by using institutional distance, in our case between Brazil and Chile. The most promising reforms for the Brazilian economy, as far as their effects on output per capita, are, in decreasing order: (i) reducing the number of procedures to open a business; (ii) decreasing the average time involved in insolvency proceedings; (iii) increasing labor market flexibility; and (iv) increase effective creditor's protection.

Human capital, innovation capability and economic growth in Portugal, 1960-2001

In maintaining that the main flaw in empirical studies on economic growth derives from the fact that they employ Solow-style neoclassical growth models, rather than testing actual endogenous growth theory, we examine the human capital-innovation-growth nexus, thus testing new growth theory more directly. We test its insights against the economic evolution of an individual country, Portugal, using time series data from 1960 to 2001. Estimates based on vector autoregressive and cointegration analysis seem to confirm that human capital and indigenous innovation efforts were enormously important to the economic growth process in Portugal during the period of study. In particular, the indirect effect of human capital through innovation, emerges here as being critical, showing that a reasonably high stock of human capital is necessary to enable a country to reap the benefits of its indigenous innovation efforts.

Institutions and economic growth in Portugal: a quantitative exploration

This paper presents a broad diagnostic of the level of institutional development in Portugal in the legal, corporate governance and financial systems. A comparative assessment suggests that Portuguese institutions are less developed than their European Union and East Asian counterparts, more developed than Greek institutions and on a level similar to that of Spanish institutions. We use data for a wide cross-section of countries since 1960 and correlate indicators of institutional development with the long-term average growth rate, identifying issues where reform is likely to significantly affect economic growth. We construct three new indices that measure the potential of institutional reform - the impact of reform on growth, the required reform effort and the efficiency of reform index - by taking into consideration the institutional “distance” between Portugal and the European Union. These indices measure, respectively, which reforms have the most payoff in terms of growth, which are “less costly” to undertake and which deliver the most growth per required effort. Our results strongly suggest that in a large number of issues, institutional reform may translate into substantially higher rates of economic growth. Of the ten most promising reforms, six are in the legal area, irrespective of which of the indices is considered. Whereas legal reform is promising at the aggregate and the microeconomic levels, in the financial sector aggregate indicators offer the wider scope for productive reform, while in the corporate governance area it is indices at the micro level that hold the most promise. These results support the view that a comprehensive reform effort is likely to deliver higher rates of growth in Portugal, allowing faster real convergence with the rest of the European Union.