Economic Growth In Nigeria Research Articles

The Impact of Brain Drain and Unemployment on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Economic growth, which is the consistent rise in national income or output, which mostly entails an expansion of an economy's flow of goods and services—determines a country's capacity to withstand fierce competition on the international market. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of brain drain and unemployment on economic growth in Nigeria. This study is anchored on neoclassical micro theory. This study examines the impact of brain drain and unemployment on economic growth in Nigeria by using the ordinary least square method. As regards the first objective, the study discovered that the major cause of brain drain in Nigeria is poor remuneration which is rampant in professions in Nigeria. Regarding the second objective, the study found out that brain drain is detrimental to the economic growth in Nigeria. As regards the third objective, the study found out that brain drain and unemployment hinders economic growth in Nigeria. The emigration of skilled professionals from Nigeria, poses a dangerous risk that can undermine the government's efforts to develop the country. This study would contribute to the wealth of literature by examining the moderating effect of unemployment on the nexus between brain drain and economic growth.

IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON INFRASTRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA (1990-2023)

The challenges of a high debt portfolio with deficit infrastructural development have affected the needed economic development in Nigeria. The study analyzed the impact of public debt on infrastructural development in Nigeria. The scope of the study was taken from 1990 to 2023; secondary data were sourced from the Debt Management Bulletin and Central Bank of Nigeria Bulletin. ARDL model was used to analyze the data, and the result revealed that external debt had positive and significant impact on infrastructural development in the long run on the other hand, the domestic debt had a negative but insignificant impact on infrastructural development in Nigeria which means that domestic if not well managed will lead to a decrease in infrastructural development in Nigeria. However, the ECT (-1) further revealed that the model is reliable with its value of (-0.522833) which shows that the model is converging. Based on the study's findings, it can be said that Nigeria uses its public debt to support infrastructural development. Nonetheless, to guarantee that infrastructural development in translate to economic growth in Nigeria, there is need for Government to constitute committee to properly monitor the implementation of loans collected. Therefore, any effort by Nigeria's government to boost infrastructural through infrastructural development by continuously using debt, especially external, should be steady make policy for proper monitoring of the implementation of the projects collected loans for. Similarly, Central of Bank of Nigeria, Federal Ministry of Finance and Federal Ministry of Works should ensure through projects tracking all capital projects are proper monitored of the implemented.

Interactional Impact of Defence Expenditure and Political Instability on Economic Growth in Nigeria: Revisited

ABSTRACT Over the last decade empirical research has increasingly recognized the significance of understanding how defence spending and political stability jointly influence economic growth in developing nations. This paper revisits the complex interplay between defence expenditure, political instability, and economic growth in the context of Nigeria, and for the period 1960-2021. Leveraging the robust Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model proposed by Granger and Terasvirta, this study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic relationships among these critical factors. Our investigation employs the STAR model to capture potential nonlinearities and regime shifts in these interactions (confirmed by the diagnostic tests), shedding light on how political instability may impact the effectiveness of defence spending on economic growth. The findings further reveal how military spending can influence political stability and governance, particularly in contexts where military resources wield significant power and influence. They also show that low military spending negatively impacts economic growth due to inadequate resources for security and stability maintenance. These findings hold vital implications for policymakers striving to enhance economic development amidst the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and security challenges.

Impact of Crop Production on Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1981 – 2018

This study examined the impact of crop production on economic growth in Nigeria utilizing annual time series data from 1981 to 2018. The study used Johansen cointegration test, Vector Error Correction test, the impulse response functions and variance decomposition for data analysis after the data series were checked against unit root problem using the Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. The study tested and found that increase in the production of cassava, cocoyam, groundnut, guinea corn, maize, millet, rice and yam spurs economic growth in Nigeria in the long-run except for cotton production and with only groundnut production contributing significantly to the output of the Nigerian economy in the short- run. The study, therefore recommends that the Nigerian government should encourage farmers in the production of crops through supply of fertilizer to increase their productivity and food output while improving their use of modern seedlings and technology in the production that may in turn increase the crop production while farmers should be encouraged to adapt best practices in farming to maximize crop yield.

Small and medium scale enterprises and economic growth in Nigeria

Due to the inconclusive situation of empirical studies on Small and Medium Enterprises ( SMEs) and economic growth in Nigeria and the need to promote growth accompanied by poverty alleviation, this study examined SMEs financing and economic growth in Nigeria from 1999 to 2021. The hypotheses formulated and tested in the study included that there is no significant relationship between commercial bank loans, total credit to the private sector (which captures other means of financing SMEs) and lending rate. Annual data was collected from the Central Bank Statistical Bulletin. The augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test revealed that the variables were stationary at the first difference, while the Johansen co-integration test indicated a long-run relationship among the variables. The Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) indicated commercial bank loans have a weak negative effect on economic growth. Total credit to the private sector has a positive effect on economic growth, while lending rates have a significant negative effect on economic growth. It was concluded that SMEs financing has significant positive effects on economic growth in Nigeria. It was recommended that the government encourage more commercial bank loans to SMEs by guaranteeing such loans, more development bank branches should be established; and the lending rate should be lowered.

Restructuring Industrial Sector and Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study investigated the effects of restructuring industrial sector on economic growth in Nigeria. The study sets to examine the effect of the manufacturing on economic growth in Nigeria, examine the impact of crude petroleum and natural gas on economic growth in Nigeria and investigate the effect of solid mineral mining on economic growth in Nigeria. The study adopted both primary and secondary source of data. The study employed Error Correction Model (ECM) and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for hypothesis testing. The findings of the study showed that Manufacturing (LnMAN) had a significant positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Crude petroleum and natural gas (LnCPN) had positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Solid mineral mining (LnSMM) had an insignificant positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, the study concluded that restructuring industrial sector, if properly and adequately implemented, would certainly propel and facilitate economic growth, development and unity in Nigeria with positive multiplier effect on West African states and Africa as a whole. Hence, recommended that there is need for the government to develop stimulants for the manufacturing sector and manufacturers in form of tax incentives and credit facilities. A good road network to mining sites and a sufficient power supply will go a long way to boost the productivity of the sector. Government should encourage the production of more agricultural products that could be used as raw materials by manufacturing industries to achieve balanced growth between the agricultural and the manufacturing industries of the Nigerian economy.

Currency Devaluation and Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study examined currency devaluation and economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, the study economic growth, balance and external debt on currency devaluation in Nigeria and tracked the direction of causality between currency devaluation and real economic variables in Nigeria. The study adopted the qualitative and quantitative research design. Secondary time series data covering 1990 to 2020 were obtained in the study. Estimation methods used in the study’s analysis includes descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, ARDL Co-integration analysis, parsimonious error correction model, granger causality test and other post estimation tests. Findings from the study revealed that gross domestic product exert positive significant impact on currency devaluation captured with currency devaluation both in the short and long run; balance of trade exert positive significant impact on Nigeria currency devaluation both in the short run and insignificant positive impact in the long run; external debt exerts negative significant impact on Nigeria currency devaluation in the short run; and positive significant impact in the long run; and a unidirectional relationship exists between external debt and currency devaluation, balance of trade and currency devaluation, external debt and balance of trade respectively. Premised on these findings, the study advocated that government in collaboration with monetary agencies should seek sound measures to reduce import and encourage exports towards maintaining positive trade balance and improve economic growth; government should create and introduce economic reforms or macroeconomic policies targeted at causing friendly business environment, boost economic output and improving the performance of the economy and government and the Central Bank of Nigeria should ensure debts contracted are deployed towards encouraging investment in exportable goods and services.

Advertising and Organizational Performance: A Panacea for Economic Growth in Nigeria

This research examines the effect of advertising on organization's performance with references to MTN Nigeria's Ado-Ekiti retail outlets. Organizational performance was a dependent variable in the study, whereas advertising was an independent variable. The study's overall goal is to look at how advertising affects business performance, and its particular goals are to look at how advertising affects sales volume and how MTN Nigeria uses advertising to improve business performance. The study uses a quantitative technique to acquire its data. The study's population consisted of fifty-five (55) MTN Nigeria employees working at retail locations in Ado Ekiti, of whom 30 of the sample's total responses were completed and returned. The results showed that MTN Nigeria had a good brand image and had advanced in their business thanks to advertising; however, recently, they had slowed down their advertising efforts. It is recommended that regular and consistent up-to-date training on product information be given to the advertising agency so that they will have the current knowledge and skills to handle the advertisements and to ensure that product information is being stressed. The study comes to the conclusion that advertising is necessary and should be a continuous activity regardless of how successful a product or service is for a company or regardless of the edge the company has in the industry.

Impact of increasing debt profile on economic growth in Nigeria

Impact of increasing debt profile on economic growth in Nigeria

Effect of Carbon Footprint on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis

This study examines the relationship between carbon footprint (CFP) components and agricultural productivity in Nigeria, a critical area of investigation given the country's reliance on agriculture for economic stability, food security, and employment. Using time series data from 1990 to 2020, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the World Bank, this study analyzes the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions on agricultural output. Employing Robust Least Square (RLS) regression and the Error Correction Model (ECM), the study finds that CO2 and CH4 emissions negatively affect agricultural productivity, with 1% increases in CO2 and CH4 emissions leading to approximate decreases in agricultural output by 2% and 3%, respectively. Conversely, a 1% increase in N2O emissions correlates with an 8% increase in agricultural output, attributed to the use of nitrogenbased fertilizers. The results confirm the presence of long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables, with approximately 32% of the previous year's disequilibrium corrected annually. The study's findings align with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, suggesting that Nigeria is in the early stages of economic growth where environmental degradation is pronounced. These insights underscore the need for sustainable agricultural practices and effective carbon emission mitigation strategies to enhance food security and support economic growth in Nigeria.

Statistical Examination of the Impact of Export Prices of Some Selected Agricultural Commodities to Nigeria Economic Growth (1999 – 2022)

In this paper we examined empirically the impact of three selected export prices of agricultural commodities such as coca, rubber and soya beans to Nigeria Economic Growth from 1999 to 2022. The data for this study were of secondary source obtained the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The Multiple Regression Model of GDP of the three selected export prices of agricultural commodities have significant relationship with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with the p-value of (=0.000) which is less than

An Examination of Fiscal Deficit - Economic Growth Nexus for Nigeria using the Bound Test Approach

This study examined the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021 and the causality between them. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to examine the nature of short-run and long-run relationships and the Granger causality test was conducted to ascertain the existence of a causal relationship between fiscal deficit (FD) and economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria. The result showed that fiscal deficit (FD) has a positive impact on economic growth both in the short-run and the long run, in tandem with the Keynesian proposition. As for other variables included in the model, gross capital formation (GCF) and trade openness (TOP) had a positive and significant effect on economic growth (RGDP) both in the long-run and short-run. Unemployment rate (UNR), interest rate (INT) and inflation rate (INF) had a negative impact on economic growth both in the long-run and short-run. The exchange rate (EXR) exerted a positive impact, though insignificant on economic growth in the long run but in the short run, it had a negative effect. The Granger causality test result showed a unidirectional causality between real gross domestic product (RGDP) and fiscal deficit (FD); the causality flows from real GDP to fiscal deficit (FD). The study recommended that deficit spending should be properly managed and prudently utilized in the provision of critical economic and social overhead capital that would expand the productive capacity of the economy to enhance private investment and other productive activities. To minimize adverse consequences of fiscal deficit, none of the sources of deficit financing should be exploited excessively. There should be deliberate action on the part of the government to promote productivity in the country to curtail inflationary pressure.

An Estimation of Causal Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Stabilization Policies on Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study was structured to examine the causal relationship between monetary and fiscal stabilization policies on economic growth in Nigeria. Data employed for econometric analysis were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin published in 2022. The analytical methodology adopted was the Granger Causal technique. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was employed to examine the stationary properties of the time series at a 5 per cent level. None of the series was stationary at a level, which validated the hypothesis of non-stationarity. Stationarity was attained after the first and second differencing respectively at a 0.05 level of significance. A cointegration test was also performed to confirm the existence or otherwise of a long-run equilibrium relationship at 0.05 level. The results indicate long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables. The results of Granger Causality signify that both monetary and fiscal policies are potent stabilization instruments in gauging the health of the Nigerian economy to guarantee that the economy is prodded onto a steady long-run growth path. Therefore, it is recommended that growth in the money supply should be consciously backed up with gold and other foreign hard currencies to guarantee price stability, and that, the Federal Government should establish a coordinating agency to synchronize conflicting monetary and fiscal policies and implementation that are inimical to the attainment of the macroeconomic goal of economic stabilization and growth.

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: 1981-2019 (ARDL MODEL)

This research investigates the relationship between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. The research conducted an analysis of Nigerian data using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique and identified that Exchange Rates have a favourable impact on Economic Growth. This paper affirmed the regression's validity with stationary residuals and found no long-term equilibrium using Bound Cointegration. The ARDL modelling revealed short-term connections between exchange rates and economic growth. Positive correlations were observed between exchange rates, GDP per capita growth, interest rates, and total exports, while negative relationships were noted with inflation and total imports, highlighting the importance of exchange rate stability in sustaining economic growth. This research provides a novel viewpoint on the connection between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. It uncovers that more than 98% of the fluctuations in exchange rates can be accounted for by the included variables. The noteworthy discovery of the absence of a long-term equilibrium relationship within the specified time frame sets this study apart. Furthermore, it underscores the crucial role of exchange rate stability in promoting enduring economic growth, emphasising the necessity for well-designed policies that consider the intricate economic landscape.

Accounting for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria: the role of external factors

Accounting for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria: the role of external factors

On Some Demographic Structures and Economic Growth in Nigeria (2003–2022)

Effective development planning necessitates the integration of sound social and economic planning strategies. In Nigeria, demographic and population data play a crucial role in shaping these plans. This research investigates the impact of demographic structure on the country's economy, with a specific focus on key characteristics such as population size, birth rate, mortality rate, growth rate, GDP growth rate, and fertility rate. The study analyzes demographic features alongside GDP growth rate data spanning from 2003 to 2022. The findings reveal a robust correlation between birth rates and GDP growth, indicating that population dynamics significantly influence economic development. Additionally, positive relationships are identified between death rates and GDP growth, underscoring the impact of mortality issues on economic outcomes. The regression model demonstrates that demographic factors collectively mold Nigeria's economic growth trajectory, shedding light on the intricate dynamics between demography and economic development. Through time series analysis, the model exhibits low errors and high explanatory power. However, residual analysis highlights serial association, emphasizing the temporal demographic effects on economic growth. Ultimately, the study underscores the potential contributions of demographic characteristics to Nigeria's economy. Policymakers and economists keen on leveraging demographic shifts for economic advancement will find valuable insights in this research. As demographic considerations increasingly play a pivotal role in Nigeria's economic growth, strategic planning and decision-making must take these factors into account.

Debt Servicing and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Moderating Effect of Corruption

Debt Servicing and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Moderating Effect of Corruption

The growth effect of crude oil revenue and capital investment: The Nigerian perspective

AbstractThis study assesses how oil revenue and capital investment affected Nigeria's economic growth from 1981 to 2020. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Toda–Yamamoto causality models for analysis. More so, we considered the possibility of structural break and thus utilised the Lee–Strazicich LM unit root test. The structural break unit roots confirm the stationarity of the variables with identified breakpoints. Therefore, the ARDL result reveals that crude oil revenue enhances short‐ and long‐term economic growth; the short‐term effect is insignificant, but it is very substantial in the long term. Again, capital investment positively but insignificantly drives short‐period economic growth. However, capital investment substantially promotes long‐term economic growth. The causality evidence indicates that crude oil revenue causes capital investment and economic growth. Also, capital investment and economic growth exhibit bidirectional causality. The evidence suggests improving oil revenue by increasing crude oil exports and ensuring pipeline security to reduce oil theft. The government should channel crude oil earnings toward capital investment to promote real economic productivity.

Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Government Tax Revenue: A Case of Nigeria (1970-2021)

This paper aims at elucidating the mystery surrounding the belief that, high and vibrant economic activities and economic growth are a prima-facie and a leading indicator for high tax revenue as a source of income for the Federal government in Nigeria. The effects of economic growth on government tax revenue are therefore empirically investigated from 1970-2021. The short-run and long-run relationships between the economic growth in Nigeria and its tax revenue are thus explored in this study. Although, theoretical and empirical reports found that there is a causal relationship between economic growth and tax revenue; this study thus further investigated this relationship by applying Johansen's cointegration test, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to establish the short and long-run relationships that may exist between economic growth and government tax revenue. However, the findings of this study clearly showed that there is an independent relationship between economic growth and government tax revenue with a 76% speed of adjustment. Thus, there is a unidirectional relationship between economic growth and total government tax revenue with a 74.76% speed of adjustment in the short run to reach an equilibrium level in the long run. This implies that there is fiscal independence between economic growth and tax revenue. The empirical analysis also provides evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Based on the findings that GDP, exchange rate, and production capacity strongly and positively affect the performance of tax revenue in Nigeria. The study recommends among others that appropriate fiscal policies be put in place to moderate the fluctuations in exchange rates of the Naira against other foreign currencies and that the government should support innovative activities by youths through the creation of innovative labs. This would help to create more job opportunities for the youths and also encourage public and private partnerships between the state governments and private investors to improve the economic activities of the country, which will in turn bring about increased tax revenue. Keywords: Economic Growth, Tax Revenue, Tax Policy, GDP,

Interest Rate Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria: New Insight from the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) Model

AbstractThis is a study on interest rate volatility, a crucial form of volatility which affects local and foreign investments in the real and financial sectors. Whether to prioritize interest rate stability to prevent distortions in the market mechanism or to prioritize other macroeconomic objectives while allowing interest rates to independently react to market forces is a key question for Nigeria’s apex monetary authority. Answering this question is the primary motivation for this research. This paper is an attempt to establish the effect of interest rate volatility on economic growth and further conclude on the suitability of the financial liberalization policy in Nigeria. To reach an evidence-based conclusion, the paper analyzes the relationship between interest rate volatility and economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1981–2020. The QARDL procedure was employed to establish the short-run and long-run quantile-specific impacts of interest rate volatility. As a final step, Granger causality tests are conducted to investigate the predictive powers of the variables. It is discovered from the econometric analysis that interest rate volatility adversely affects the economic performance of Nigeria in both the short run and long run. Consequently, full liberalization is not suitable for the economy. Moreover, we find that the short-run adverse growth effect of interest rate volatility is greater when the economy is already in a relatively weak state, whereas the long-run adverse growth effect is greater when the economy is already in a relatively strong position. The findings sufficiently prove that full interest rate liberalization is not Pareto efficient for Nigeria. Hence, greater supervision of the interest rate corridor system to reduce volatility in the rates and minimize chances of persistent upward or downward bias is advised. Study limitations and directions for further research are also provided.