Economic Expectations Research Articles

Survey‐based insights from choice‐based conjoint analyses on customer preferences for company characteristics of life insurers

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to investigate customer preferences for certain company characteristics when purchasing life insurance products. We focus on ratings provided by aggregators, namely financial strength, sustainability, service quality, and type of customer touchpoint (online vs. in person), while also studying potential product‐specific differences between annuities and term life policies. Toward this end, we conduct two choice‐based conjoint analyses with 529 and 543 German respondents to estimate individual preference structures. Consistent with economic expectations, we observe statistically significant higher preferences for better ratings of the life insurer, which also materialize in the respondents' marginal willingness to pay. One main finding is that customer preferences in our sample are asymmetric, with a strong focus on avoiding below‐average ratings. Furthermore, for both annuities and term life insurances, the relatively most important life insurer attribute for customers is financial strength, followed by service quality, sustainability, and type of customer touchpoint.

Generation Z: pessimistic and populist? A conjoint experiment on the determinants of populist voting in Spain

Abstract Generation Z is the most educated and yet pessimistic about the future. At the same time, populist parties have much support among young voters. Do they find an answer to their discouraging socio-economic situation in populist appeals? In this article, we analyse how pessimistic economic expectations shape the preference for populist parties among the young in Spain. By using conjoint experiments, we explore which specific features of populist parties (‘thin’ or ‘thick’ characteristics) are decisive in attracting young and pessimistic voters. Unlike older generations, for whom immigration is the most relevant factor, Generation Z, especially the pessimistic, focuses more on the thin ideological elements of populism. This finding contradicts previous experimental studies, which argue that thin populist characteristics are irrelevant in explaining the general population’s voting behaviour. Ideology plays a significant mediating role, as young pessimists on the left tend to be attracted by anti-elitism, while those on the centre-right by people-centrism.

Association Between COVID-19 Risk Perceptions and Economic Expectations During the Pandemic in South Korea

Risk perceptions of the COVID-19 pandemic changed economic expectations and shaped individuals’ consumption and investment choices, thereby worsening its economic and social damage. This study investigated the associations between COVID-19 risk perceptions and economic expectations using a South Korean dataset collected during the pandemic. The results of a logistic regression conducted on 1,001 participants revealed that greater pandemic risk perceptions were significantly associated with negative economic expectations at both the national and the household levels. Affective risk perception had a large and significant negative association with all four types of economic expectations, whereas cognitive risk perception had a significant negative association only with households’ economic expectations. The association was greater for the perception that the economy would “get better” than for “get worse” or “remain the same,” indicating COVID-19 may have reduced individuals’ optimistic economic expectations. COVID-19’s economic damage may last beyond the pandemic, as individuals adjust their economic expectations.

Generational differences in economic perceptions

Historical institutionalists have long argued that major events can shape long-term economic perceptions, but the identification of birth-cohort differences has been stymied by methodological difficulties, notably the APC problem. Taking advantage of unique Japanese data and tailored Bayesian modeling, we identify cohort effects in economic perceptions and show that they follow objective macroeconomic trends countercyclically. Cohorts whose formative ages (16–20) overlap with high GDP growth have more pessimistic views about the current and future economy, even in later years. We argue that a strong economy during one's youth raises baseline expectations and makes later, weaker growth appear disappointing. We further find partisan differences in cohort effects, particularly on prospective economic expectations, with greater pessimism among independents and supporters of opposition parties.

The impact of environmental regulation and economic expectations on crop-livestock integration among hog farmers: a field study from China.

Decoupling of crop-livestock systems increases the risks of pollution, waste of nutrient resources, and biodiversity loss. Crop-livestock integration (CLI) is an effective solution to these problems, and motivating farmers to adopt CLI is the key. Many countries have implemented environmental regulations (ER) aiming to influence farmers' CLI adoption decisions. Based on a field study of 316 hog farmers from Shaanxi Province of China, this paper applies the triple-hurdle model to empirically examine the impacts of economic expectations (EE) and ER on CLI adoption decisions. It also verifies the income effect of CLI. The results are as follows: 90.5% of farmers are willing to adopt CLI, but the adoption rate is only 40.8% and the average integration degree is only 0.236; CLI not been widely popularized. EE and ER promote farmers' CLI adoption significantly, while the impact of interaction between EE and ER on CLI adoption differs. IER weakens the positive impact of EE on farmers' CLI integration degree, which has a "crowding out effect." GER negatively moderates the impact of EE on farmers' adoption willingness of CLI. CER strengthens the positive effect of EE on farmers' adoption behavior and CLI integration degree. CLI increases the farmers' income. These results contribute to our understanding of the mechanisms of CLI adoption decisions and sustainable policy optimization for green agricultural development.

The effect of monetary policy on inflation expectations: Evidence from a financial traders survey

While financial market participants' actions are crucial for the effectiveness of the monetary policy, the literature lacks evidence on how traders form economic expectations. Studies have argued that economic agents' inflation expectations increase as a reaction to contractive monetary policy shocks, the so-called central bank (or Fed) information effect, but have not addressed the extent to which these responses are state-dependent. This study employs individual observations of more than 100 Chilean financial traders from 2010 to 2022 to analyze how they update inflation expectations in response to monetary policy surprises, when controlling for other relevant factors. The evidence indicates that traders' reactions to policy shocks depend on the actual inflation rate, suggesting a mechanism where observed inflation reflects the central bank’s credibility and, thus, affects responses to policy actions. Results show that the size of the update depends on the disagreement amongst traders and news concerning contemporaneous inflation.

“Don’t worry, be happy (and the vote out the incumbent): economic anxiety and incumbent support”

ABSTRACT In recent years, there has been a substantial upsurge in the cost of living and income inequality across established democracies. These shifts, intensified by recent public health crises and growing political instability, have subjected voters to an extraordinary mix of social, political, and economic uncertainty. Despite widespread doubt about the future, a consistent finding in the economic voting literature highlights that voters’ evaluation of the past economy strongly influences their decision to either reward or penalize incumbents. Additionally, these studies find that voters’ forward-looking evaluations of personal economic conditions and general economic expectations often yield weak or negligible effects. These patterns motivate an important empirical question – why do future-oriented economic evaluations fall short in yielding a more substantial effect on incumbent support amid considerable personal struggle and uncertainty about economic conditions ahead? Grounded in appraisal theories of emotion, our study suggests that these consistent results may stem from existing measures inadequately capturing the multi-dimensional and affective nature of voters’ future economic concerns. Using data from the Canadian province of Ontario, we explore the extent of voters’ economic anxiety, identify the factors influencing these sentiments, and show that economic anxiety weakens support for incumbents in provincial and municipal elections.

Alcohol and Substance Abuse in the General Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results of the COMET-G International Study

The global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health and substance use behaviors has sparked extensive research efforts. The COMET-G international study, organized by the Department of Medicine and the Rectorate of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki in collaboration with the World Psychiatric Association, delved into these issues. Running from March 2020 to April 2021, the study collected responses from 55,589 individuals across 40 countries. Through a comprehensive questionnaire, participants provided insights into their mental state, attitudes toward the pandemic, and the resultant changes in their personal and daily lives. Findings revealed, among other things, significant patterns of change in substance use, with notable correlations between reduced usage and the severity of lockdown measures among non-binary individuals. Mental health history emerged as a strong predictor of substance use changes, with influences from anxiety disorders, depression, and self-harm. Additionally, family and social dynamics, including economic expectations and household composition, significantly shaped substance use behaviors during lockdowns. Given these findings, the development of comprehensive approaches targeting the adverse effects of the pandemic on individual behaviors and general welfare is crucial.

The peer effects of resident stock market participation: Evidence from 2019 CHFS.

Limited resident's participation in the stock market has become a key constraint to the capital market development. Utilizing the 2019 China Household Financial Survey (CHFS) data, our paper designs probit models to examine the peer effects of residents' stock market participation and explore the intermediary mechanisms with a multiple intermediary model. We find that: (1) Resident involvement in stock market decision-making exhibits significant peer effects. (2) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that males and rural residents display more pronounced peer effects than females and urban residents. Additionally, middle-aged residents demonstrate more potent peer effects than their younger and older counterparts, with the intensity of peer effects correlating with education levels. (3)We observe that the peer effects of market participation operate by altering economic expectations and enhancing residents' financial literacy. (4) Further investigation establishes that individuals engaging in stock market investments manifest peer effects when deciding whether to diversify their stock portfolio. This study holds reference value for analyzing the impact of social interaction on financial behaviors and regulating individuals' financial conduct.

On the effect of short-run and long-run US economic expectations on oil and gold volatilities

This paper investigates the effect of US Economic expectations on oil and gold volatilities, examining their formation across different time horizons. To this end, we compute expectations using a MS-VAR model from one (short run) to sixteen quarters ahead (long run). Then, we estimate the impact of an expectation shock on oil and gold volatility measures through an impulse response function estimating a VAR model from 1987Q1 to 2022Q1. Our results show that oil volatility is significantly affected by expectations in the short run, while gold volatility is affected by expectations in the long run. In particular, gold and oil volatilities exhibit a decrease following a positive expectation shock.

ДЕТЕРМІНАНТИ ПОВЕДІНКИ ПОКУПЦІВ НА СПОЖИВЧОМУ РИНКУ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВОЄННОГО СТАНУ

The purpose of the study is to identify typical determinants of consumer behavior under martial law. The article attempts to analyze consumer behavior and its impact on the consumer market of Ukraine. The key factors determining consumer behavior in the consumer market of Ukraine under conditions of military operations have been identified. The dynamics of indices of consumer sentiment in Ukraine were analyzed, in particular: indices of inflation expectations, consumer sentiment, current situation, economic expectations, expectations regarding the dynamics of unemployment, and their interrelationships were also analyzed. The trends revealed by the change in the consumer behavior of the population of Ukraine under the conditions of martial law are substantiated. Recommendations for business and government on effective management of the consumer market and ensuring economic stability in conditions of military conflict have been developed.

The Effect of Being Vaccinated and National Vaccination Rates on Individuals' Cognitions, Emotions, and Economic Expectations: Evidence from Israel.

Israel was the first nation to establish a vaccination program during the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, its citizens could look to no other country to help them judge its influence. People's predictions of their safety should depend on whether they were vaccinated, whereas their predictions regarding the COVID-19 pandemic should be based on the degree of progress of the vaccination program. We expected people to understand that the program would improve their safety by reducing the number of infected people around them. An original panel survey was conducted covering the pandemic's first year. Respondents reported their vaccination status, emotions, evaluations of their safety, and predictions about the spread of COVID-19 and the Israeli gross domestic product. Estimates of fixed-effects models using the survey data suggest that being vaccinated affected people's cognitions about their own safety and their emotions but not their expectations regarding the situation in Israel as a whole. In contrast, the vaccination rate in Israel affected only the respondents' expectations about the spread of COVID-19, their own income, and Israel's gross domestic product. Being vaccinated is important for people's personal emotional and cognitive relief during a pandemic. A high vaccination rate improves people's economic expectations, which is important to the recovery of economic activity.

A state within reach? An ethnographic case study on the relocation of a government workplace from Copenhagen to a small town in rural Denmark

Exploring the redistribution of state jobs from Copenhagen to provincial Denmark, this article draws upon an ethnographic case study involving the relocation of a government workplace, Nota, to the small town of Nakskov (12,500 inhabitants) on the rural island of Lolland. Taking up residence in the town's central square, the article examines the everyday social and economic expectations and norms Nota encounters in this new locale. Based on social scientific theories of practice communities and local economic circles, the analysis illustrates how the state institution must navigate two parallel and opposing economic circuits: that of the state, marked by inflexibility and uniformity, and that of the local town community, grounded in pragmatism and adaptability. The state's standardising central-economic line of procedure is shown to hinder the relocated workplace in becoming part of and contributing to the new host town's own local-economic systems of exchange. In conclusion, the article argues that in daily life a fundamental conflict of interests between state-economic rules and local-economic norms emerges on the ground, meaning that, despite being introduced as decentralisation, when seen from the perspective of the site of relocation, the redistribution of state jobs in Denmark remains bound by logic of centralisation.

Autologous Skin Cell Suspension for Full-Thickness Skin Defect Reconstruction: Current Evidence and Health Economic Expectations.

Despite differing etiologies, acute thermal burn injuries and full-thickness (FT) skin defects are associated with similar therapeutic challenges. When not amenable to primary or secondary closure, the conventional standard of care (SoC) treatment for these wound types is split-thickness skin grafting (STSG). This invasive procedure requires adequate availability of donor skin and is associated with donor site morbidity, high healthcare resource use (HCRU), and costs related to prolonged hospitalization. As such, treatment options that can facilitate effective healing and donor skin sparing have been highly anticipated. The RECELL® Autologous Cell Harvesting Device facilitates preparation of an autologous skin cell suspension (ASCS) for the treatment of acute thermal burns and FT skin defects. In initial clinical trials, the approach showed superior donor skin-sparing benefits and comparable wound healing to SoC STSG among patients with acute thermal burn injuries. These findings led to approval of RECELL for this indication by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2018. Subsequent clinical evaluation in non-thermal FT skin wounds showed that RECELL, when used in combination with widely meshed STSG, provides donor skin-sparing advantages and comparable healing outcomes compared with SoC STSG. As a result, the device received FDA approval in June of 2023 for treatment of FT skin defects caused by traumatic avulsion or surgical excision or resection. Given that health economic advantages have been demonstrated for RECELL ± STSG versus STSG alone when used for burn therapy, it is prudent to examine similarities in the burn and FT skin defect treatment pathways to forecast the potential health economic advantages for RECELL when used in FT skin defects. This article discusses the parallels between the two indications, the clinical outcomes reported for RECELL, and the HCRU and cost benefits that may be anticipated with use of the device for non-thermal FT skin defects.

ВПЛИВ ЦИФРОВИХ ВАЛЮТ НА ФІНАНСОВИЙ СЕКТОР

The article studies the development of digital technologies in the global economy. It is determined that central bank digital currencies open up new opportunities in improving the efficiency of payment systems, reducing the cost of transactions in e-commerce, and increasing the level of financial inclusion. It has been found that the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) may affect the deposit base of banks, potentially leading to increased costs and changes in their business models. However, beyond simple costs, a CBDC could also negatively impact the stability of the banking sector by expanding direct access to central bank liabilities, providing a public substitute for bank deposits, and altering bank business models. In general, competition for bank deposits from CBDCs may alter the architecture of the financial system, displacing the class of private debt, forcing banks to rely on alternative sources of financing, and possibly making the banking sector more vulnerable. The trilemma, which illustrates the fundamental principles of trade faced by central banks in managing CBDCs, has been analysed, demonstrating the complexity of balancing them in response to changes in financial technologies and economic expectations. According to Schilling, this trilemma asserts that a central bank managing a CBDC can achieve at most two of the following three objectives: financial stability, efficiency (optimal distribution of risks), or price stability. Choosing one of these objectives will inevitably lead to the sacrifice of at least one of the other two. It is concluded that digital central bank currencies are a new frontier in international monetary relations that can significantly change the way countries conduct cross-border trade, monetary policy, and financial cooperation. The impact of CBDCs on the financial sector can have far-reaching consequences, both positive and potentially negative. On the one hand, CBDCs promise to revolutionise the financial sector by improving the efficiency of payment systems, reducing transaction costs, and promoting greater financial inclusion. On the other hand, they can negatively impact the stability of the current financial system.

Macroprudential Policies in the Light of the Development of Information Technologies: A Synthesis on the Effective Early Warning Signals

In response to recent recurrent crises, innovative macroprudential policies (MaPs) have been framed and implemented to address the weaknesses of market-led microprudential mechanisms and enhance the stabili­ty of financial systems. However, the effectiveness of the tools used to implement MaPs remains a critical research question. Early warning signals (EWS) serve as indicators of potential future crises. This paper explores approaches for identifying EWS to optimize the impact of MaPs, particularly in light of advances in information technology. It provides a comprehensive review of academic studies that identify effective EWS by analyzing numerical data through econometric and machine learning (ML) methods or by extracting economic insights from text using deep learning (DL) techniques — innovative methods for financial supervision and regu­lation. The findings, considering current regulatory practices, highlight the benefits of ML-based approaches for processing large sets of numerical data and the growing potential of text-based methods for assessing economic expectations.

Carbon matters: Fossil fuels and the Energy Transition

Rapid technological advances across a variety of industries are enabling society’s quest for sustainability. The resulting “Energy Transition” is causing an unprecedented shift in how the world’s population consumes energy and natural resources, driven by a range of factors including decarbonisation, economics, access to energy, societal expectations around environment and climate, energy efficiency, political and regulatory forces and emerging technologies. The “Energy Transition” will occur at different speeds and shapes in different geographies, depending on local economic and societal pressures. World energy demand is continuing to rise, mainly in the emerging economies of India, China and Africa, driven by population growth and economic development. Many countries are trying to do the “right thing” for their population and their economy and are not necessarily driven by a desire to “save the planet”. Maximising income to fund important social and education programmes is often higher in the priorities of some governments than reducing carbon emissions. The energy transition is not as simple as doing what’s right for the planet. Governments, businesses and people in fossil fuel producing regions have shown that they will protect their economies despite the threat of environmental harm. The fossil fuel era will not be over soon. Despite the rapid growth in the use of renewable energy resources, in all reasonable scenarios there will still be a need for oil, gas and coal for the foreseeable future if we are to meet the social and economic expectations of the world’s growing population. The energy mix will certainly change as we try to reduce carbon emissions, but the speed and magnitude of that change will depend heavily on national economic priorities, political will and public opinion. The world’s need for sustainable energy will change the geography of the oil and gas industry, increasingly intertwining it with renewables and carbon sequestration. The oil and gas industry of the 2030s, and beyond, will focus where synergies with renewable energy, carbon sequestration and, increasingly, industrial complexes, are strongest. Providing sufficient affordable and sustainable energy while mitigating the effects of climate change are now the world’s greatest challenges. They are complex issues and are no simple solutions. It is important to remember in any discussion about the energy transition that it is not the energy source that is the problem, it’s the environmental impact of using it. This applies just as much to renewable energy resources as to fossil fuels. How fast can we realistically move towards a low-carbon future and still meet the world’s growing demand for energy? What are the key constraints on the rate of change? –and what role will geoscientist play in driving and delivering the new energy solutions? The “Energy Transition” is a huge responsibility, but also a huge opportunity, one in which we all have our part to play.

Bismuth-free Mg3Sb2 with enhanced room-temperature thermoelectric and mechanical properties

Thermoelectric materials are competitive candidates for special cooling applications. Mg3Sb2-based materials consisting of inexpensive ingredients have profound thermoelectric properties. At present, alloying with Mg3Bi2 is the most effective approach to optimize the thermoelectric properties of Mg3Sb2-based materials. However, the extremely low abundance of bismuth in the crust contradicts its economic expectation. In this work, the ZrO2 micro-particles were separated into the Mg3.2Sb1.99Te0.01. The doping effect of Zr atoms at Mg sites increased the electrical conductivity, and the combined secondary phase lowered the lattice thermal conductivity. With acceptable degradation in the Seebeck coefficient, the sample combined with 5% (in mass) ZrO2 exhibited a dimensionless figure of merit (zT) of 0.49 and a power factor of 2.7 mW·m−1·K−2 near room temperature. The average zT in the range from 300 K to 500 K reached 0.8, on par with the Mg3Sb2Mg3Bi2 alloys. Besides, the compressive and bending strengths reach 669 MPa and 269 MPa, respectively, far superior to the common room-temperature thermoelectrics. This secondary phase showed a surprising and uncostly promotion of the Mg3Sb2-based thermoelectric materials, impelling the realization of its commercial application.

The Effect Of Economic Learning Outcomes And Economic Expectations On The Economic Independence Of Generation Z Individuals Through Moderation Of Financial Intelligence

Technological advances and the rapid flow of information through the internet have affected the lives of generation Z, one of which is the change in consumptive attitudes that are increasing. However, some of Generation Z still have a very low awareness of digital literacy. The results of economic learning are seen to be able to determine the economic expectations of generation Z and be able to foster financial intelligence in economic independence. This study aims to investigate the effect of economic learning outcomes and economic expectations on Economic Independence in generation Z, with financial intelligence as a moderating factor. This type of research is quantitative research with a descriptive approach and uses a questionnaire as a data source. The sampling method used was Proportionate Stratified Random Sampling, and the number of samples obtained was 77 students at Makassar State University. The data analysis used in this study is the PLS method through SmartPLS software and inferential statistical analysis using the warpPLS version 4.0 program. The results showed that economic expectations and financial intelligence have a positive and significant influence on Economic Independence, while economic learning outcomes do not have a significant effect. The findings provide important insights into the factors that influence generation Z's economic independence and the implications for the development of economic literacy

From Lab to Field: Biofertilizers in the 21st Century

Nowadays, legal regulations and social environmental concerns are converging towards the promotion of more sustainable agriculture based on organic compounds and soil preservation. These trends are fuelling the growth of the biofertilizers, which are beneficial preparations containing microorganisms able to enhance a plant’s ability to uptake essential nutrients. Their production and commercialization encompass a multitude of critical steps deeply reviewed in this manuscript through an exhaustive overview of the key stages, such as microorganism selection, new environmental sources, upscaling to field trials, encapsulation, current application systems and regulatory considerations. However, although the economical expectations are promising, several methodological, environmental, and legal concerns are undermining their advancement. The redefinition of international legal frameworks, their enhancement based on trending technologies, and the fostering of multidisciplinary collaboration across sectors are key players to promote biofertilizers as eco-friendly and cost-effective alternatives to chemical fertilizers.