“Don’t worry, be happy (and the vote out the incumbent): economic anxiety and incumbent support”

Abstract

ABSTRACT In recent years, there has been a substantial upsurge in the cost of living and income inequality across established democracies. These shifts, intensified by recent public health crises and growing political instability, have subjected voters to an extraordinary mix of social, political, and economic uncertainty. Despite widespread doubt about the future, a consistent finding in the economic voting literature highlights that voters’ evaluation of the past economy strongly influences their decision to either reward or penalize incumbents. Additionally, these studies find that voters’ forward-looking evaluations of personal economic conditions and general economic expectations often yield weak or negligible effects. These patterns motivate an important empirical question – why do future-oriented economic evaluations fall short in yielding a more substantial effect on incumbent support amid considerable personal struggle and uncertainty about economic conditions ahead? Grounded in appraisal theories of emotion, our study suggests that these consistent results may stem from existing measures inadequately capturing the multi-dimensional and affective nature of voters’ future economic concerns. Using data from the Canadian province of Ontario, we explore the extent of voters’ economic anxiety, identify the factors influencing these sentiments, and show that economic anxiety weakens support for incumbents in provincial and municipal elections.