Evolutionary Economics Research Articles

Economic development and economic policy in the transition to post-normality

Aim. To study the transformations of economic development trends and changes in the priorities of economic policy in the period of modern political and economic turbulence associated with the transition to a new quasi-stable state of the economy — post-normality.Tasks. To consider the features of the modern Russian economic model; to describe the mechanism of the impact of macro shocks of 2020 and 2022 on the Russian and world economy; to characterize the target — postnormal — state of the national and world economy; to offer recommendations for improving economic policy in the new conditions.Methods. The author of the article used both general scientific methods of research, including systemic, retrospective, institutional and macroeconomic (positive and normative) analysis, and specialized methods of studying economic evolution, economic dynamics and statics, situational and scenario modeling, economic statistics and others.Results. In recent years, the conditions of foreign economic interaction of many national economies, especially the Russian economy, have changed. During the post-Soviet period, Russia has consistently and systematically pursued a policy of economic liberalization, in particular, foreign economic liberalization. The first significant blow to the openness of national economies was the COVID-19 pandemic. The second was the sanctions imposed against Russia by the countries of the “collective West”, which gradually affected an increasing number of countries. The essence of these shocks from the point of view of macroeconomic analysis is a jump-like increase in the closedness of the national economy. Under these conditions, it is established that national economies of post-industrial type turn out to be unstable and unviable under the new realities. This should be taken into account in economic policy. Attention should also be paid to the fact that the processes of growing crisis of the currently prevailing model of open economy will inevitably affect not only economic, but also political, cultural and other processes. An attempt to overcome the sanctions on Russia by geographical reorientation of foreign economic interactions can be effective only in the short term, as a tactical measure. Strategically, it will not work, because the flaws of the open economy model, consisting in high (and in some cases — critical) dependence of the national economy on foreign economic interactions, cannot disappear. Therefore, this openness should be reduced in areas critical for national development. Special attention in economic policy should be paid to the issues of social justice, without the solution of which it is impossible to achieve public consensus and ensure the effectiveness of the institutional changes necessary in connection with the transition to post-normality. Conclusions. The modern Russian economy is at another transitional stage of development. In general, constant transformations are a systemic property of the economy, a condition for its existence. At the same time, in modern realities there is a transformation of strategic nature associated with the change of the key feature of the existing economic model — its degree of openness. Although the Russian economy as a whole has been able to adapt to the new conditions of functioning, but this is a tactical adaptation, in the strategic aspect it is not enough for a successful transition to the post-normal stage of development. In this regard, a more balanced and active participation of the state in the management of economic development processes and their regulation is required, subject to the formation of effective economic and other incentives to support such processes for both business and the population. In view of this, it is advisable to take into account the recommendations proposed by the author of the article in the economic policy.

How do energy price shocks affect global economic stability? Reflection on geopolitical conflicts

The sharp rise of energy prices after the Russia-Ukraine conflict have restricted social activities and economic evolution in the area, and further brought the underlying macroeconomic effects of energy price fluctuations into public view. To examine whether and how the global energy price volatility affects the stable operation of the national economy, we perform econometric analysis on global 69 economies from 2003 to 2019. The regression outcomes insist that: (1) the price volatility of three kinds of energy has a substantial restraint impact on economic growth behaviors, among which the natural gas price has the most prominent effect; (2) the impacts of frequent energy prices shocks on economic stability significantly vary among different economic organizations, which are more pronounced for the sub-samples of non-B&RI, OECD, and RCEP countries; (3) the fluctuation of three energy prices is a vital factor affecting economic growth at any quantile level, and its impact on economic growth is most prominent in the high quantile range; and (4) industrial upgrading plays an intermediary role in the energy price-economic stability nexus; in other words, industrial upgrading is regarded as a plausible channel that links energy prices with economic stability. Hence, some policy implications on adjusting energy price mechanism and strengthen economic stability are provided.

Analysis and Prognostication of Residents' Per Capita Disposable Income in Hubei Province using Time Series Prediction Methods

To anticipate the fluctuations in per capita disposable income among Hubei Province inhabitants for the subsequent biennium, a dataset spanning from 2005 to 2022 was culled. Employed in this study were three distinct time series prognostication methodologies: Exponential Smoothing (Holt-Winter), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). These techniques were applied to envision the forthcoming trajectory of per capita disposable income for the province's residents. By computing diverse metrics to assess predictive discrepancieslike the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)the effectiveness of the assorted models was gauged, culminating in the selection of the ARIMA model due to its superior performance. Capitalizing on this, approximations for per capita disposable income during 2023 and 2024 were extrapolated. The resultant prognoses project a sustained and noteworthy uptick in per capita disposable income for urban denizens of Hubei Province in the forthcoming biennial span. Ultimately, the findings were translated into actionable policy suggestions and deductions, rendering them highly pertinent for the dissection of Hubei Province's economic evolution.

Exploring the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of carbon emissions and air pollution in Chinese cities

Based on data from 335 cities in China, this study employs the standard deviation ellipse method to portray unbalanced and differential spatiotemporal evolution patterns of environmental emissions and socioeconomic elements. A logarithmic mean Divisia index analysis and in-depth discussion are carried out to disclose the main driving factors and underlying reasons for the differences. Decoupling trends exist among carbon emissions, gross domestic product (GDP) and population in terms of their gravity center migrations. The standard deviation ellipse direction of carbon emissions gradually changed from ‘northeast‒southwest’ to ‘northwest‒southeast’, and the standard deviation ellipse areas of carbon emissions and air pollution continuously expanded over time; at the same time, that of GDP contracted. Economic growth has always been the main driver of carbon emissions and air pollution nationally, but its role has weakened. Moreover, decreases in the energy intensity and carbon and pollution intensities are the main factors contributing to emissions reductions. Differentiated spatiotemporal economic structure evolution, regional heterogeneities in the energy intensity and efficiency, and cross-region power energy transmissions are identified as the underlying reasons for the unbalanced spatiotemporal patterns of the environmental emissions and socioeconomic elements. Based on these findings, policy suggestions can be made to address the imbalances and promote carbon mitigation, air quality improvement and high-quality social-economic development at the city level.

Economy-Finance-Environment-Society Interconnections In a Stock-Flow Consistent Dynamic Model

ABSTRACT This work takes inspiration from four theoretical strands: recent developments in ecological macroeconomics; the Schumpeterian framework of evolutionary economics that emphasises the entrepreneurial role of the State; the stock-flow consistent approach to macroeconomic modelling; and the supermultiplier model. Building upon these approaches, we develop a formal model that reproduces key interactions between the economy, the financial sector, the ecosystem and the society. We test and assess the effects of several fiscal policies. We find that, in principle, mission-oriented innovation policies are the most effective option in supporting innovation and growth, while reducing income inequality. However, lacking a ‘green’ and progressive taxation system, they are unlikely to reverse the current trend in atmospheric temperature.

Dynamics of the distribution of marriages of churchgoers of the Grado-Tyumen Assumption Church in Tyumen in 1863–1867

The article is based on the materials of the church registers of the Grado-Tyumen Assumption Church in the city of Tyumen, the Tyumen district, the Tobolsk province, and analyzes the features of marital behavior and the dynamics of the distribution of marriages in the city of Tyumen in 1863–1867 in order to find out how and with what intensity the changes occurred in the traditional values of premarital and marital behavior in this territory. This fact substantiates the relevance of the research, since without a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of the distribution of marriages and identification of the characteristics of marital behavior, it is impossible to fully imagine the social and economic evolution of the city of Tyumen as the largest and most important commercial and industrial center of Russia beyond the Urals. Various aspects of the marital behavior of the inhabitants of the city of Tyumen in the Tobolsk province in the second half of the 19th century have been considered on the basis of modern methodological principles of gender studies; situations with secondary and subsequent marriages, interclass marriages, and marriages with immigrants have been studied. The position of widows of soldiers and their attractiveness as brides in the territory of the Tyumen district has also studied, and the reasons for marriages with a large age difference in favor of the bride identified. A conclusion has been made about the features of marital behavior and the parameters of the distribution of weddings during the year, the age of marriage and the social origin of the spouses.

Special issue: microfoundation of evolutionary economics and its application

Special issue: microfoundation of evolutionary economics and its application

Quantity adjustment theory as a basis of evolutionary economics

Quantity adjustment theory as a basis of evolutionary economics

Податки солідарності: новітній досвід ЄС та перспективи для України

Introduction. The development of the taxation theory and the best practices of the World Anti-crisis Tax Policy prove the gradual separation of an independent and very specific group of taxes, called “solidarity taxes”, which are beginning to play a fairly significant role in modern tax policy. The intensive development of solidarity taxes and their implementation in the European fiscal space in 2022 are closely related to the crisis phenomena that have arisen in the field of energy prices and the associated increase in the inflation rate. This is one of the consequences of the military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. Another consequence of this war was the high need for investment necessary for the revival of Ukraine. Problem Statement. The problems of the design of solidarity taxes and their scope of application, as well as the possibilities and features of their use as a promising source of investment financing, remain insufficiently studied. And the latest experience of the second half of 2022-early 2023 regarding the coordinated application of taxes on unpredictable profits in EU countries requires critical analysis and generalization. Purpose. To study the economic content, evolution and regulatory framework of the application of solidarity taxes in the EU and the prospects for their implementation in Ukraine at the stage of post-war economic recovery. Methods. The author used analytical and qualitative research methods, including logical and comparative analysis, to identify general and special features of solidarity taxes, decomposition and grouping methods to study the element base and identify models of the studied taxes. Results. The theoretical basis and European practice of using solidarity taxes are analyzed, and the genesis of their development in the EU countries is studied. The principles of development and implementation of a common tax policy within the EU to counteract the consequences of the energy crisis through the introduction of a temporary contribution of solidarity, coping with unexpected profits in the energy sector and oil refining are considered. Attention is focused on the expediency, limitations and risks of the prospective application of solidarity taxes as its own source of investment financing at the stage of the post-war economic recovery of Ukraine. Conclusions. Solidarity taxes implementation is a promising direction for creating our own national sources of investment financing in the context of the post-war economic recovery. The introduction of solidarity taxes in Ukraine requires the adaptation of the European methodology to the specifics of the set goals and conditions of taxation in Ukraine, as well as scientific justification of restrictions on the application of this tax and preventive mechanisms to counteract the negative consequences of its implementation.

The microfoundations of evolutionary economics and its future: an essay based on the SMT approach

The microfoundations of evolutionary economics and its future: an essay based on the SMT approach

Концепция экономического роста Одеда Галора и марксистская теория общественного развития: опыт сравнительного анализа

The article analyzes the evolutionary concept of economic growth of Oded Galor, identifies its strengths and limitations. A comparative analysis of this concept and the Marxist theory of social development is carried out. The comparability of these theoretical constructions is postulated due to the similarity of their main research issues and the distinguished periods of human history that are being analyzed. It is emphasized that the differ-ences between the concepts under consideration consist in the methodological approach to the subject of study, the assessment of social development from different positions and taking into account the action of vari-ous factors. The article concludes that Oded Galor's evolutionary concept of economic growth and the Marxist theory of social development turn out to be complementary theoretical constructs, aggregate accounting of the results of which makes it possible to create a comprehensive view of the economic evolution of human society.

A modeling framework for World-Earth system resilience: exploring social inequality and Earth system tipping points

The Anthropocene is characterized by the strengthening of planetary-scale interactions between the biophysical Earth system (ES) and human societies. This increasing social-ecological entanglement poses new challenges for studying possible future World-Earth system (WES) trajectories and World-Earth resilience defined as the capacity of the system to absorb and regenerate from anthropogenic stresses such as greenhouse gas emissions and land-use changes. The WES is currently in a non-equilibrium transitional regime of the early Anthropocene with arguably no plausible possibilities of remaining in Holocene-like conditions while sheltering up to 10 billion humans without risk of undermining the resilience of the ES. We develop a framework within which to conceptualize World-Earth resilience to examine this risk. Because conventional ball-and-cup type notions of resilience are hampered by the rapid and open-ended social, cultural, economic and technological evolution of human societies, we focus on the notion of ‘pathway resilience’, i.e. the relative number of paths that allow the WES to move from the currently occupied transitional states towards a safe and just operating space in the Anthropocene. We formalize this conceptualization mathematically and provide a foundation to explore how interactions between ES resilience (biophysical processes) and World system (WS) resilience (social processes) impact pathway resilience. Our analysis shows the critical importance of building ES resilience to reach a safe and just operating space. We also illustrate the importance of WS dynamics by showing how perceptions of fairness coupled with regional inequality affects pathway resilience. The framework provides a starting point for the analysis of World-Earth resilience that can be extended to more complex model settings as well as the development of quantitative planetary-scale resilience indicators to guide sustainable development in a stabilized ES.

The Historical Transformation of China's National Perception

Drawing upon the theoretical frameworks of positioning theory and macrohistory, it can be posited that China's economic evolution can be comprehensively elucidated through the lens of innovation, which can be categorized into three distinct stages: stability, depression, and development. Three primary categories of innovations—silk, ceramics, and tea—rather than the Four Great Inventions—paper making, gunpowder, the compass, and printing—were the main drivers of the ancient Chinese economy's growth. The West originally came to identify the East and China with "mystery" and "wealth" through the commerce in silk and porcelain. China finished building the "Celestial Empire" on its own through new categories, new brands, and new positioning. The West originally came to identify the East and China with "mystery" and "wealth" through the trade of silk and porcelain. China finished building the "Celestial Empire" on its own through new categories, new brands, and new positioning. Due to the loss of innovation, China went through a period of economic stagnation, and the voice of the "Celestial Empire" was gradually supplanted by orientalism until being replaced entirely by Made in China. The national perception is being rebuilt in China after 2000 as a result of the nation-branding strategy's introduction and an increase in the number of Chinese companies expanding abroad. This article provides a research foundation for Chinese enterprises to contemplate when formulating their global positioning and international business tactics.

The main drivers of urban sprawl in Portuguese medium cities between 2001 and 2011

Urban sprawl is a widely known urban phenomenon characterized by low density and low accessibility in monotonous peripheral areas. Sprawl is normally perceived as producing negative environmental and economic impacts. Although a global phenomenon, it has been mostly associated with US cities. Cities in other continents, as European Cities, although denser, have been also sprawling. This work aims to address the dynamic and multidimensionality characteristics of sprawl by using five indicators that capture the variation in density, fragmentation, dispersion and irregularity. Using these indicators, this work studies the drivers of sprawl in Portuguese Medium Cities, a subject which has been overlooked, between 2001 and 2011. The aforementioned sprawl indicators are regressed against a series of demographic, socioeconomic, policy, mobility, urban growth dynamics and geographical indicators that are referred in the literature as drivers of sprawl. The obtained results indicate that previous sprawl patterns, population characteristics, economic evolution and specialization, commuting patterns, urban containment policies and geographical features influence sprawl.

Smart tourism: the role and synergies of stakeholders

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide a thematic literature analysis of smart tourism and the role of stakeholders and synergy relating to the implementation of smart tourism.Design/methodology/approachThe study is based on a review of prior research by various authors on smart tourism and the role of stakeholders and synergy relating to the implementation of smart tourism.FindingsResearch studies define the concept of smart tourism as a form of technological, economic and social evolution, which is influenced by such elements as the Internet, social media, smart devices and mobile applications, among others. Stakeholder theory is based on the organizational context, and various individuals and groups within an organization are mutually supported and influenced by the same organizational goals. The research studies have found that cooperation between internal and external stakeholders could involve designing a tourism strategy, coordinating tourism promotion and branding, raising local tourism awareness, standardizing tourist facilities, making ticket price policies and communicating with tourism stakeholders.Originality/valueThe paper provides a thematic literature review of smart tourism, the role of stakeholders and synergy from the perspective of the implementation of smart tourism.

Evolution of Economic and Social of “Ruea Nuea” in Khiri Wong Community of Lan Saka District, Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Thailand

This research brought together the issues of economic and social identity of the Khiriwong community with information about the lives of the people in this community to link to the creation of shared values of innovation through the use of the disappearance of the Ruea Nuea over time, wants to highlight the identity and evolution of Ruea Nuea, and tries to present the relationship based on the way of subsistence production in the past through stories that show the importance. This research aims to study the Economic and Social Evolution of “Ruea Nuea” in the Khiri Wong Community of Lan Saka District, Nakhon Si Thammarat Province. This qualitative research included 16 key informants, namely elderly people and village sages who knew about Ruea Nuea in the Khiri Wong Community. This study focuses on participant observation by organizing the group conversation process. It uses structured interviews and opens community forums for data processing and analysis to connect issues. It synthesizes the descriptive analysis and presents the narrative study results of the community. The results showed that the Economic and Social Evolution of Ruea Nuea, consisted of: The era of prosperity in subsistence production. Ruea Nuea was a tool for the occupation with the social and economic lifestyle and the relationship system of people in the Khiriwong community. It is considered a range of "Subsistence production", and living a self-sufficient life. The transition era of marketing relationship production happened in this period. Convenient transportation and connection to the economic progress of the community. “The market system is integrated with the livelihood”, which led to the decline of the ship's role in Ruea Nuea, leading to conservation, and the recession and conservation through traditions and rituals of Ruea Nuea from the old to the new generation in the Kiriwong community. This leads to participation in the conservation of Ruea Nuea. It indicates that Ruea Nuea is important for the coordinating treatment, and create value for the local culture.

Innovation, Complexity and Economic Evolution: From Theory to Policy, by Pier Paolo Saviotti, Routledge, 282 pages

Innovation, Complexity and Economic Evolution: From Theory to Policy, by Pier Paolo Saviotti, Routledge, 282 pages

Advocating uniformity in spine surgery: a practical disease-specific guideline for trial-based economic evaluations

ObjectivesDespite the availability of general and national guidelines for the conduct and reporting of economic evaluations, there is heterogeneity in economic evolutions concerning spine surgery. This is partly the result...

Investigation into the Coincidence between Specialty Setting in Higher Vocational Colleges and Industrial Structure Utilizing a Coupling Coordination Evaluation Framework

Abstract The coincidence between specialty setting and industrial structure within higher vocational colleges epitomizes the tangible foundation for the amalgamation of industry and education in advanced vocational training, serving as an essential element in Ningbo’s regional economic evolution. Through an examination of Ningbo’s prevailing industrial composition and the regional specialty setting of higher vocational colleges, this study evaluates the congruity between specialty setting and industrial structure by fashioning a deviation degree model. Concurrently, it calculates the comprehensive development level of specialty setting and regional industry through entropy weight method, and then probes the coupling coordination magnitude between specialty setting and regional industry through the construction of a coupling assessment coordination framework on this basis. The findings reveal that the specialty setting and industrial structure of higher vocational colleges in Ningbo exist in a state of significant coupling, and the interconnection degree between the two is commendable. Nevertheless, the overall deviation is notably substantial, indicating that the coupling coordination demands further refinement. Hence, it becomes imperative to augment the synchronized advancement between specialty setting in higher vocational colleges and regional industries within Ningbo, focusing on three vital dimensions: the optimal utilization of the government’s comprehensive planning capability, the predominant role of higher vocational colleges, and the synergistic collaboration with enterprises within the context of higher vocational education.

Інституційні трансформації у цифровому суспільстві: від інформаційної асиметрії до цифрових валют центральних банків

The article presents the results of a study of deep transformations of the institutional environment, unfolding during the digital transition and related to ideas about information asymmetry. The author shows the latter’s evolution and various features of its modern reformatting, whose cornerstone is the introduction of digital currencies of central banks. Information asymmetry is considered as the basic awareness of economic players in the context of the spatio-temporal conditions of existence as an integral state of the market communication process, which is connected with the very existence of human society and its creative activities and restructuring in the process of economic evolution based on professional knowledge. Information asymmetry is a risk distribution format adequate for a market society. At the same time, market stability under economic freedom requires information asymmetry and a decentralized information circulation system. The article shows that the global structuring of information on the basis of transparency criteria, which is characteristic of the digital transition, leads to the degradation of the basic historical foundations of the regulation of socio-economic interaction based on ideas about information asymmetry, trust, credibility and professionalism. At the same time, the structuring of the digital society in order to achieve information orderliness and the a priori reliability of the communication environment results in the denial of the institution of trust. The comprehensive fight against the "human factor" through increased supervision of the state and financial operators concentrates the risks of the economic system. The introduction of digital currencies of central banks becomes the final stage on the way to the creation of a fully transparent, and information-ordered economic environment, which is actually ambivalent and contradictory, as it reduces the economic competences of market subjects and delegates a significant part of market communications to digital algorithms, which leads to the emergence of societies with concentrated and undiversified risks.