Economic Loss Evaluation Research Articles

Comprehensive economic loss assessment of disaster based on CGE model and IO model—A case study on Beijing “7.21 Rainstorm”

The economic loss evaluation of disaster is the basis for disaster prevention and disaster emergency management and thus needs to be solved urgently. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and input-output (IO) model are the major disaster assessment methods, each of which has its own strengths and weaknesses currently. However, few comparative researches have been conducted on the economic losses of one disaster evaluated by CGE Model and IO Model based on the same disaster impact. Therefore, this paper first constructs multi-sectoral CGE model and IO model, which are commonly used in disaster loss assessment. Then, taking the Beijing “7.21 Rainstorm” in 2012 as an example, the direct losses of agricultural and transportation sectors are introduced to the basic model. After that, the economic loss ratio and comprehensive losses based on the two models can be obtained. Finally, by comparing the assessment results, the main conclusions of the evaluation mechanism are summarized. The results showed that: (1) The CGE model has a greater spillover effect upon sectors and a wider distribution of disaster-affected sectors than the IO model; (2) the range of economic loss determined by the assessment results of the CGE model and the IO model is [67.9396, 74.2739] (100 million yuan); (3) agricultural, transportation, and mining sectors are high-sensitivity sectors to rainstorm disasters. Through the comparison of the two models, the accurate economic loss of disaster can be obtained, according to which governments can take targeted measures for the prevention and early warning of disasters.

The Necessity Analysis for Economic Loss Evaluation of Traffic Accidents Considering the Needs of Different Groups of Users

The Necessity Analysis for Economic Loss Evaluation of Traffic Accidents Considering the Needs of Different Groups of Users

Methodology of evaluating economic losses resulting from partial loss of the air ecosystem’s assimilative capacity

Nowadays the ecosystem approach is widely applied in many countries globally to evaluate economic losses from pollution of the natural environment. In Ukraine, it is reasonable to develop both the methodology of evaluation of economic losses from pollution of the natural environment and the methodology of calculation of correlating coefficients of ecosystems’ assimilative properties for differentiation of the volumes of repayment of economic losses from pollution of nature. The following methods were used in the research: economic and mathematical modeling – for formalization of the evaluation of economic losses from partial loss of the air ecosystem’s assimilative capacity; synthesis and analysis, system approach – for analysis of existing mathematical models, evaluation of economic losses from air pollution and forming of institutional environment of calculation of economic losses from partial loss of the air ecosystem’s assimilative capacity; inductive – for making conclusions over the best methodological approach to be used for calculation of oxygen production costs. The condition of the institutional environment is analyzed, including the regulatory and organizational maintenance of evaluation of economic losses from air pollution. The paper proves that the existing relevant institutional environment is partially coordinated with international formal rules and organizational structures, which evaluate such economic losses; however, their further efficient evaluation requires timely transformation based on the ecosystem approach to EU directives. The recommendations regarding the institutionalization of the process of ecosystem calculation of caused and prevented losses from the partial loss of the air ecosystem’s assimilative capacity are suggested: application of 2008/50/EU Directive of European Parliament and Council as of May 21, 2008 on Ambient Air Quality and Cleaner Air for Europe; review of the amounts of harmful substances TLV in the air; the need to take into account certain factors while calculating economic losses from air pollution (including the calculation of damage to life and health of each person due to air pollution), approval of the documents already developed and adopted but suspended by the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, etc. New methodological approaches to alternative evaluation of economic losses from partial loss of the air ecosystem’s assimilative capacity as opposed to the current one are suggested, including methodological approaches to calculation of the oxygen and nitrogen production costs on the basis of the carbon offsets realization; methodological approaches to calculation of the oxygen production costs based on installation of artificial photosynthesis; methodological approaches to calculation of the oxygen production costs based on natural photosynthesis – planting and conservation of forests; methodological approaches to calculation of the oxygen and nitrogen “production” costs in metallurgical production; methodological approaches to calculation of prevented economic losses from partial loss of the air ecosystem’s assimilative capacity, which are manifested in the long run or those of indirect nature.

Evaluation of Social and Economic Losses from Premature Mortality caused by HIV Infection

The spread of HIV infection with the consequent death from AIDS removes some resources from the economy, impedes the preservation of human capital in the economy and undermines the foundations of economic development. The analysis of foreign and domestic research demonstrates the difficulty of assessing the impact of HIV infection on economic development. There is a variety of approaches and methods used for these assessments. Thus, the search for an optimal model to assess the impact of HIV infection on economic development becomes increasingly relevant. We have substantiated the calculation the economic burden of the disease caused by HIV infection. The proposed method for assessing socio-economic losses due to premature mortality from HIV infection includes three main types: the explicit economic costs from the premature mortality of the working-age population, the implicit costs from the premature mortality of the incapable population and the implicit economic costs from premature mortality of women of child-bearing age due to their inability to participate in the reproduction of the labour force. The magnitude of the region’s gross regional product (GRP) losses from fatal HIV infection increased 1.85 times between the years 2012 and 2016. As a result, of premature mortality from HIV infection, the Sverdlovsk oblast GRP decreased by 1.68 % in 2016, total losses were 16.2 billion roubles. In the structure of the total losses, about 70 % are implicit losses associated with the mortality of women of child-bearing age and therefore, the loss of the opportunity to increase the population of the region. The further direction of the research is to assess the socio-economic impact of investments in HIV treatment on the quality of life in the region.

The Evaluation of Medical Demographic and Economic Losses of the Region Conditioned by Mortality of Lung Cancer

The article presents evaluation of medical demographic and economic losses of population of the Krasnoyarskii kraii conditioned by mortality of lung cancer in 2010-2014 using DALY technology. In the Krasnoyarskii kraii, during 2010-2014 64,712 individuals died because of lung cancer. The mortality of male population surpasses corresponding indices of mortality of females up to 3.9 times. In the region, the standardized indicator mortality of lung cancer among males annually surpasses the same indicator among females at maximum up to 8.1 times. The DALY maximal absolute losses of among males were registered in 2010 and 2013 and fell on age group of 55-59 years and among females on the age group of 60-64 years in 2014. The maximal (up to 5.2 times) difference in values of DALY indicator was established in 2010 between male and female population. the maximal gap in in DALY indices between male and female population was established in the age of 55-59 years. Almost half of DALY losses among males was established in 2013 and among females in 2014. The total losses of gross regional product in the region because of mortality conditioned by lung cancer made up to 29.8 billions of rubles in 2010-2014.

Economic Consequences of Disposing Radioactive Wastes of Fuel-and-Power Cycle Enterprises

Economic evaluation of losses conditioned by disposing radioactive wastes of the “Prydniprovskyi Chemical Plant” Production Association on the territory of Kamianske and surrounding areas of the Dnipropetrovsk region is performed. While analysing losses, four uniform groups of expenses and losses were distinguished which include: expenses on protecting and monitoring measures, expenses on remediation measures, social orientation expenses and expenses related to waste disposal. It is shown that expenses on protecting and monitoring radioactive waste storages prevail.

Evaluation of animal performance, feed intake, and economic losses in sheep experimentally infected with Trypanosoma vivax

Trypanosoma vivax is a protozoan originating from the African continent, which, although it has not yet been able to complete its biological cycle in South America, due to the absence of the tsetse fly, can still cause death in ruminants. The objective of this study was to verify the effects of T. vivax on the measurements and indices in sheep that characterize animal performance, as well as on economic losses in meat animals. Twenty intact adult male sheep were used for this study, all of approximately the same ages and weights, reared in confinement, and subjected to the same management and diet, which was balanced and supplemented with adequate minerals. The animals were divided into two groups: the control group (CG) and the infected group (IG), which was inoculated intravenously with 1.3 x 105 trypomastigotes of T. vivax. Feed intake was verified daily, whereas the feed conversion (FC), feed efficiency index (FEI), and weight gain were obtained weekly. Total weight gain (TWG) was determined after 70 days post-infection. The economic loss was calculated by subtracting the value obtained (IG) from the expected value (CG), and the difference was expressed as a percentage. A randomized block design was used to isolate the effect of the initial weight. The means were compared by the Student “t” test at 5%. Of the 10 infected animals, one died from the parasitism, yielding a rate much lower than that observed in natural outbreaks. The groups presented similar feed intakes throughout the experimental period; however, the TWG of the infected group was significantly lower (50.7%) than that of the CG. Similarly, the daily weight gain (DWG), feed conversion (FC), and feed efficiency index (FEI) of the IG were significantly lower than those of the CG. In addition, the worst rates of FC and FEI coincided with parasitemia peaks and recurrences, probably due to immunological demand and tissue repair. The abdominal circumference of the infected animals was statistically lower than that of the CG, which may be directly related to fat mobilization, in addition to the possible negative effect on the digestive capacity. The economic losses due to weight alone were 24.07% and could reach 31.66% of the herd value due to animal death. Infection with T. vivax negatively affected animal performance indices, even when the animals were well nourished. Trypanosoma vivax in sheep destined for slaughter caused economic losses of 31.66% due to the decrease in performance and the death rate in the infected group.

Economic Evaluation of Losses From Invalidism of the Population in Russia: Approaches and Methods

Economic Evaluation of Losses From Invalidism of the Population in Russia: Approaches and Methods

Економічна оцінка втрат, пов’язаних з вилученням земель і обмеженнями у землекористуванні

Економічна оцінка втрат, пов’язаних з вилученням земель і обмеженнями у землекористуванні

Urban flood depth-economic loss curves and their amendment based on resilience: evidence from Lizhong Town in Lixia River and Houbai Town in Jurong River of China

Resilience is a key term in disaster economic loss assessment. The flood loss rates in different scenarios for the residence, industry, commerce, infrastructure, and agriculture are calculated, and the original depth-damage curves are drawn by collecting the socioeconomic data of Lizhong Town in Lixia River and Houbai Town in Jurong River. Thereafter, by fully considering the resilience factor to draw the new depth-economic loss curves, which are in line with the actual situation, the results show: (1) the disaster reduction capability correction loss rate of different receptors in Lizhong Town is in the range of 16–74 %, and in Houbai Town is in the range of 20–79 %. The residential flood loss, commercial loss, infrastructure loss, and industry loss were reduced by 74, 54.8, 38, and 16 %, respectively, in Lizhong Town, and the residential flood loss, commercial loss, and industry loss were reduced by 79, 60, and 20 %, respectively in Houbai Town. (2) Residential property types and their display heights in families with different income levels have similar flood-damage rate curves in mainland China and Taiwan (Su et al. in Flood damage assessment and related database Implementation for KeeLung River Basin (II), Special research report of National Science Council, Taiwan, 2002); (3) the loss rate reached the maximum at the depth of 3 m, and the sum of the five receptors’ damage is 6.98 million Yuan (RMB) and 2.2 million Yuan (RMB) in Lizhong Town and Houbai Town, respectively. At last, in this paper, several approaches to improving resilience were proposed and possibilities in future researches were put forward. This study is a useful complement to flood economic loss evaluation literature and provides reference for disaster prevention and mitigation decisions in similar areas.

Economic evaluation of health losses from air pollution in Beijing, China

Aggravated air pollution in Beijing, China has caused serious health concern. This paper comprehensively evaluates the health losses from illness and premature death caused by air pollution in monetary terms. We use the concentration of PM10 as an indicator of the pollution since it constitutes the primary pollutant in Beijing. By our estimation, air pollution in Beijing caused a health loss equivalent to Ұ583.02 million or 0.03% of its GDP. Most of the losses took the form of depreciation in human capital that resulted from premature death. The losses from premature deaths were most salient for people of either old or young ages, with the former group suffering from the highest mortality rates and the latter group the highest per capital losses of human capitals from premature death. Policies that target on PM10 emission reduction, urban vegetation expansion, and protection of vulnerable groups are all proposed as possible solutions to air pollution risks in Beijing.

CVMとクラスター分析を活用したエゾシカによる損失価値推計と対策システムの提案

CVMとクラスター分析を活用したエゾシカによる損失価値推計と対策システムの提案

An Investigation of DEM Resolution Influence on Flood Inundation Simulation

This study investigates the influence of DEM resolutions on flood inundation simulation. Sanyei drainage area of Tainan City is taken as a case study. The catchment of Sanyei area is 43.7 km2 with a main stream of 6.7km and elevations running from 2 m to 30 m. This study uses 1x1 m LiDAR DEM of Sanyei area as a basis. To do pure 2D flood simulation, the channel elevation is adjusted based on the cross-sectional measurements. The channel adjusted 1x1m DEM is later used as basis to aggregate several DEMs including: 5x5m, 10x10m, 20x20m, 40x40m. Five flood inundation models were built based on the 5 DEMs mentioned above with a same model setting. Results show that the inundation area evaluation increases with coarser DEMs. Specifically, the inundation area given by the 40x40m DEM is 1.5 times greater than that given by the 1x1m DEM. This may not only lead to different decision making in evacuation route and responses, but also the evaluation of economic loss and project planning, etc.

Monetary Valuation of PM10-Related Health Risks in Beijing China: The Necessity for PM10 Pollution Indemnity.

Severe health risks caused by PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm) pollution have induced inevitable economic losses and have rendered pressure on the sustainable development of society as a whole. In China, with the “Polluters Pay Principle”, polluters should pay for the pollution they have caused, but how much they should pay remains an intractable problem for policy makers. This paper integrated an epidemiological exposure-response model with economics methods, including the Amended Human Capital (AHC) approach and the Cost of Illness (COI) method, to value the economic loss of PM10-related health risks in 16 districts and also 4 functional zones in Beijing from 2008 to 2012. The results show that from 2008 to 2012 the estimated annual deaths caused by PM10 in Beijing are around 56,000, 58,000, 63,000, 61,000 and 59,000, respectively, while the economic losses related to health damage increased from around 23 to 31 billion dollars that PM10 polluters should pay for pollution victims between 2008 and 2012. It is illustrated that not only PM10 concentration but also many other social economic factors influence PM10-related health economic losses, which makes health economic losses show a time lag discrepancy compared with the decline of PM10 concentration. In conclusion, health economic loss evaluation is imperative in the pollution indemnity system establishment and should be considered for the urban planning and policy making to control the burgeoning PM10 health economic loss.

Assessment of Economic Losses on Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution by Abuse of Fertilizer in Manasi River Basin of China

Agricultural Non-point Source (AgNPS) pollution is one of the most important reasons for environmental pollution and unbalance of ecology. Nowadays, the negative impact of AgNPS pollution is increasing. Oasis and desertification exist at the same time in Xinjiang. The evaluation of economic loss caused by AgNPS pollution was carried out in the Manasi River Basin. The economic losses on AgNPS pollution were assessed by the methods of Concentration-Value Curve. Fertilizer overusing were focused on this research,which were major sources of AgNPS pollution. The results showed that environment economic loss caused by abuse of fertilizer was 8.115 million RMB in 2012.

Economic evaluation of damage from natural disasters

More frequent disasters are becoming a cause of greater damage to states and regions of the world. Correct economic evaluation of these losses is a topical scientific and practical problem. Its solution allows us to measure and understand, on the one hand, the scale and depth of the consequences of the effect of this factor on the stability and dynamics of socioeconomic development and the security of specific territories and, on the other hand, the volume and structure of the needs for resources necessary to mitigate these consequences and restore (maintain) normal life conditions. This article presents an analytical overview of domestic and international approaches to the economic evaluation of losses and damage from natural disasters; the author’s approach to the evaluation of direct, indirect, and full damage is presented.

Estimation of Economic Losses due to Haemorrhagic Septicaemia in Cattle and Buffaloes in India

In the present study, a methodology for the evaluation of economic losses due to Haemorrhagic Septicaemia has been developed by considering various possible direct and indirect losses in cattle and buffaloes. This methodology has been used to estimate the economic losses using survey data. It is revealed that the morbidity losses account for 23 per cent of the total losses and the rest (77%) are due to mortality of the animals. Of the total morbidity losses, about half have been due to reduction in growth and one-fifth due to loss in milk. The total economic loss per infected animal due to Haemorrhagic Septicaemia has been estimated as 6816 in case of cattle and 10901 in buffalo. These losses when scaled-up at the national level have indicated a loss of 5255 crore. The direct losses contribute 80.3 per cent and indirect losses contributed 19.7 per cent to the total economic loss. The study has found that calves contribute 74.8 per cent and adults contribute 25.2 per cent to the total economic loss due to Haemorrhagic Septicaemia.

Classification and Prediction of Economic Losses - Storm Surge Disasters in Guangdong Province of China

This paper took Guangdong province as an example, using the statistical data of twenty times storm surges from 2003 to 2010 to evaluate the disasters and predict the economic losses. We expected it to supply with sound references and proof for the decision-makers to prevent storm surges. With economic indices of direct economic losses, collapsed houses, damaged farmland area, et al., this paper used entropy method and factor analysis method to grade the storm surges into separate levels, which are the mild disaster, the moderate disaster, the serious disaster and the extra serious disaster. By BP neural networks and gray prediction method, we established the evaluation and prediction models of direct economic losses. Comparing the results of both methods, it found that neural network is more applicable and accurate to predict the economic losses of storm surges.

Evaluation of economic loss from energy-related environmental pollution: a case study of Beijing

With the growth of energy consumption, energy-related environmental pollution has become increasingly serious, which in turn causes enormous economic loss because of public health damage, corrosion of materials, crop yield reduction, and other factors. Evaluating economic loss caused by energy-related environmental pollution can contribute to decision making in energy management. A framework for evaluating economic loss from environmental pollution produced during energy production, transportation, and consumption is proposed in this paper. Regarding SO2, PM10, and solid waste as the main pollutants, economic losses from health damage, materials corrosion, crop yield reduction, and solid waste pollution are estimated based on multiple concentration-response relationships and dose-response functions. The proposed framework and evaluation methods are applied to Beijing, China. It is evident that total economic loss attributable to energy-related environmental pollution fluctuated during 2000–2011 but had a general growth trend, with the highest value reaching 2.3 × 108 CNY (China Yuan) in 2006. Economic loss caused by health damage contributes most to the total loss among the four measured damage types. The total economic loss strongly correlates with the amount of energy consumption, especially for oil and electricity. Our evaluation framework and methods can be used widely to measure the potential impact of environmental pollution in the energy lifecycle.

Economic Evaluation of Human Losses from Disasters

The paper overviews the existing methodologies for evaluating economic losses incurred by untimely and additional deaths provoked by natural and technological disasters. It also reveals the improved methodology of such an assessment based on welfare theory and international comparisons approach, and outcomes of the case study using this methodology for calculating economic value of human losses from heat waves and wildfires’ impact on the Moscow region. Special attention is paid to substantiation and recommendations to provide correctness of such evaluation to improve its legal and methodological bases in Russia using international experience of calculation of statistical life value.