Economic Evaluation Model Research Articles

Evolutionary computing methodology for small wind turbine supporting structures

The paper presents a comprehensive, complex, numerical, optimization methodology (computational framework) dedicated for supporting structures of small-scale wind turbines. The small wind turbine (SWT) supporting structure is one of the key components determining the cost of such a device. Therefore, the supporting structure optimization will allow cost reduction and, hence, popularization of these devices around the world. The presented methodology is based on the following: single-objective (aggregation-approach to multi-objective problem) evolutionary algorithm driven optimization, finite-element structural analyses, estimation of wind energy capture efficiency (coupled aero-servo-elastic numerical simulations), and economic evaluation (based on real meteorological data). Then, the methodology is proposed for a guy-wired mast structure of an arbitrary chosen SWT model. The optimization of chosen design features of the structure is performed and as a result the optimal solution for given assumptions is presented and scaling factor for that case is identified (total mass of the foundations). The successful use of combined numerical methods (genetic algorithms, FE method analyses, coupled aero-servo-elastic numerical simulations, pre-/post-processing scripts, and economic evaluation models) is the main novelty of this work.

Cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes enhanced by self-management strategies to battle sedentary behaviour in older adults: protocol for an economic evaluation alongside the SITLESS three-armed pragmatic randomised controlled trial

IntroductionPromoting physical activity (PA) and reducing sedentary behaviour (SB) may exert beneficial effects on the older adult population, improving behavioural, functional, health and psychosocial outcomes in addition to reducing health,...

Research on Capacity Optimization of Wind-Storage System Based on Fuzzy Control Strategy

The wind storage combined power generation mode can effectively solve the technical bottlenecks of large-scale wind power grid connected operation and improve the grid's ability to accept wind power. However, due to the high cost of energy storage and the imperfection of the electricity price mechanism, it is necessary to study the capacity optimization of wind-storage combined generation system. Based on the fuzzy control strategy, this paper determined the charge and discharge model of the wind-storage system, and established the Monte Carlo reliability evaluation model and the economic evaluation model that aims at maximizing the annual economic benefits of the system. Then the optimal allocation of wind-storage capacity was obtained by analyzing the reliability index and economic index of the different wind storage capacity rate through the actual wind field test data. Finally, the State of Charge (SOC) at the optimal capacity allocation was analyzed. The result shows that the reasonable allocation of wind-storage capacity is conducive to the reliable and economic operation of the system.

PMD27 - Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQOL) of Pregnant Women in Korea: A Comparison Before and After Prenatal Test

There is no study published on HRQOL of Korean pregnant women which is needed to evaluate innovative technologies such as non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) in Korea. The objective of this study is to document health utility of Korean pregnant women before and after prenatal tests. Data for this study came from NECA-NHCR research on prenatal testing. During the period of May 2016 to February 2018, pregnant women who received a prenatal test at twelve clinical sites in Korea were solicited for EQ-5D-5L based health utility before and after prenatal test. The after-test utility measurement was performed right after informing the negative test results. For those who received multiple tests and positive results were excluded. A total of 210 pregnant women participated. Health utility was calculated using EQ-5D-5L Korean tariff and EQ-VAS. All analyses were performed by SPSS Statistics version21.0. The mean gestational age in before-test and after-test measurements were 12.29(±2.84) and 22(±7.6) weeks, respectively. The mean gestational age for after-test measurement was 23(±7.4) weeks for maternal serum test, 19.2(±5.3) weeks for NIPT and 27.1(±8.8) weeks for invasive test. NIPT showed significantly early testing than two other tests(p<0.05). Overall, the mean scores of EQ-5D-5L were 0.919(±0.088) before-test and 0.901(±0.101) after-test. The mean EQ-5D-5L was 0.896(±0.104) after maternal serum test, 0.913(±0.0938) after NIPT, and 0.886(±0.108) after invasive prenatal test. The health utility of all participants measured by EQ-VAS were 0.798(±0.124) before the test and 0.822(±0.108) after the test. The mean EQ-VAS utility was 0.820(±0.109) after maternal serum test, 0.836(±0.104) after NIPT, and 0.780(±0.57) after invasive test. This study reported health utilities of pregnant women before and after various prenatal tests. These results and future work on gestational week adjusted health utility data can significantly help building economic evaluation model on prevailing prenatal testing including NIPT in Korea.

MO4 - Assessing the Appropriateness of Existing Model Adaptation Methods for Low and Middle-Income Countries

Objectives: The development of a new economic model for every single country that an intervention is used may be seen an inefficient. As such, model adaptation has often been proposed as a potential solution which could save scarce resources for decision makers in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using adjuvant treatment of early breast cancer as a case study, this study assessed the appropriateness of adapting an economic evaluation model originally developed in the UK for use in South Africa. The study aimed to determine the likely challenges that can arise from the routine adaptation of models to similar settings around the world. Methods: Eight model adaptation methods were identified from a systematic review and a citation search performed using Web of Science and Scopus databases. The eight methods were then appraised against criteria developed by the study team to select the most appropriate approach for LMICs. The Mullins checklist was formally applied in a case study assessing the cost-effectiveness of docetaxel and paclitaxel-containing chemotherapy regimens compared with standard treatments for adjuvant early breast cancer in South Africa. South African resource use patterns and unit cost data were obtained for estimating cost parameters, whilst targeted literature reviews were used to update the clinical effectiveness and utility data in the model. Results: Several methods are available to guide the process of adapting economic evaluation models for countries other than those in which they were conducted. The Mullins checklist seems the most appropriate approach for LMICs. We recommend that a consensus should be developed by a well-conducted Delphi panel. Conclusions: Based on model adaptation using resource use data from South Africa, the Mullins checklist appears to be an appropriate existing method to guide the transferability of economic evaluations done elsewhere to LMICs. However, research on refining the guidance further is urgently needed.

Economic benefit of carbon sequestration project of CCER bamboo forest management in Anji County, Zhejiang Province

Based on The Bamboo Forest Management Carbon Sequestration Project Methodology and improved project economic benefit evaluation model, this research conducted a quantitative evaluation of the economic benefits of CCER bamboo forest management carbon sequestration project and analyzed the sensitivity of the net present value under different scenarios. The results showed that the net present value of bamboo forest management carbon sequestration project was 195.675 2 million yuan in total, 6.522 5 million yuan per year and 137 200 yuan per hectare under the current market conditions, which was 42.05 per cent higher than that of the traditional bamboo forest management. Total carbon dioxide emission reduction was 249 658 t; the average annual emission reduction was 8 322 t; the amount of emission reduction per hectare was 175 t·hm-2. The net present value of the project emission reduction was 4.654 0 million yuan in total, 155 100 yuan per year and 3 300 yuan per hectare. The degree of sensitivity of the net present value of the project was bamboo price > discount rate > labor price > carbon price in the same rate of change scenarios. On the basis of the research findings, the relevant suggestions were put forward from three perspectives, namely, carbon price, farmer's income, and market environment, to carry out bamboo forest management carbon sequestration project better.

A techno-economic analysis of energy recovery from organic fraction of municipal solid waste (MSW) by an integrated intermediate pyrolysis and combined heat and power (CHP) plant

The increasing environmental concerns and the significant growth of the waste to energy market calls for innovative and flexible technology that can effectively process and convert municipal solid waste into fuels and power at high efficiencies. To ensure the technical and economic feasibility of new technology, a sound understanding of the characteristics of the integrated energy system is essential. In this work, a comprehensive techno-economic analysis of a waste to power and heat plant based on integrated intermediate pyrolysis and CHP (Pyro-CHP) system was performed. The overall plant CHP efficiency was found to be nearly 60% defined as heat and power output compared to feedstock fuel input. By using an established economic evaluation model, the capital investment of a 5 tonne per hour plant was calculated to be £27.64 million and the Levelised Cost of Electricity was £0.063/kWh. This agrees the range of cost given by the UK government. To maximise project viability, technology developers should endeavour to seek ways to reduce the energy production cost. Particular attention should be given to the factors with the greatest influence on the profitability, such as feedstock cost (or gate fee for waste), maintaining plant availability, improving energy productivity and reducing capital cost.

A fuzzy system of candidate completion methods selection for multi-fractured horizontal wells in tight oil reservoirs

Multi-stage fracturing technique has been widely applied to tight oil/gas reservoirs. However, there still exists challenges to select the most applicable and economical well completion methods (WCMs) for a multi-stage fractured horizontal well (MFHW) in a tight oil reservoir. And, the theoretical methods used to select the best WCM for a particular MFHW are not fully investigated. At present, the existing models and methods are basically applied to conventional horizontal wells and the application of relevant models or methods in tight oil reservoirs are rarely involved.In this study, a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation system is developed to help engineers performing the optimal selection of WCMs for MFHWs in tight oil reservoirs. Firstly, the wellbore stability analysis is carried out to obtain the critical drawdown pressure which determines the availability of open-hole WCMs. Subsequently, a fuzzy evaluation model is proposed to preliminarily find out several potentially available WCMs for the target MFHW. The problems caused by non-quantification and fuzziness of effect factors are solved by membership functions. Then, on the basis of production decline analysis and the initial productivity prediction using a semi-analytical productivity model, the cumulative production in the future for the target MFHW using different candidate WCMs (fuzzy evaluation results) are predicted respectively. And an economic evaluation model is proposed to identify the most economic candidate WCM based on the cumulative production estimation results. Finally, the recommendation of the optimized WCM is performed with considering the obtained critical drawdown. With the help of the developed corresponding software, the proposed fuzzy system is applied along with two field applications in a tight oil reservoir. The results of optimal selection of WCMs for those two filed cases are validated by the field practices.

Economic Evaluation of Actively Consuming Wind Power for an Integrated Energy System Based on Game Theory

Facing the growing problem of the curtailed wind during winter heating periods in the north of China, a flexible control method of wind power heating using the integrated energy system to consume the curtailed wind is proposed. Energy storage technology is introduced to coordinate regenerative electric boilers to match the fast fluctuation of wind power. The consuming model of the curtailed wind for the integrated energy system is established under three models through the study of the consumption mechanisms for the curtailed wind. The “wind power-energy storage system” and “wind power-regenerative electric boiler” are regarded as the game’s participants, and the maximum daily benefit of the system is regarded as the objective function, an economic evaluation model of the integrated energy system to consume the curtailed wind based on game theory is established. For comparative analysis, the model is respectively solved by particle swarm optimization (PSO) and the firefly algorithm (FA). The effectiveness of the model is verified by the actual operation data of a wind power heating demonstration project in China. The simulation results show that the most economy benefits of the overall system can be obtained by using energy storage systems to coordinate regenerative electric boilers, which provides a theoretical basis for the consumption of the curtailed wind.

Investigating Low-Carbon City: Empirical Study of Shanghai

A low-carbon economy is an inevitable choice for achieving economic and ecological sustainable development. It is of significant importance to analyze a city’s low-carbon economy development level scientifically and reasonably. In order to achieve this goal, we propose an urban low-carbon economic development level evaluation model based on the matter-element extension method. First, we select some indicators from the existing indicator system based on past research and experience. Then, a matter-element model is established on the basis of weight to evaluate the level of a city’s low-carbon, the critical value of each index is determined through the classical domain and the section domain, calculating the correlation degree of a single index and a comprehensive index. Finally, we analyze the low-carbon economy development status and future development trends according to the analysis results. In this study, we select Shanghai as an empirical study—the results show that Shanghai is a city with a low-carbon level and there is a trend of further improvement in Shanghai’s low-carbon economy. But its low carbon construction and low carbon technology investment are relatively low. In summary, this method can provide another angle for evaluating a city’s low-carbon economy.

Study on the Evaluation Model of Economic Responsibility Audit Based on ANP

In order to comprehensively evaluate the performance of the economic responsibility of the leading cadres during the term of office and improve the theoretical system, this paper put forward an economic responsibility audit evaluation model based on ANP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, focusing on the new regulations of corruption and bribery cases. It also established a scientific evaluation index system to improve the audit work efficiency and promote the further development of the audit work.

Protocol for the economic evaluation of a complex intervention to improve the mental health of maltreated infants and children in foster care in the UK (The BeST? services trial)

IntroductionChildren who have experienced abuse and neglect are at increased risk of mental and physical health problems throughout life. This places an enormous burden on individuals, families and society in...

Evaluation model of economic competitiveness based on multi-layer fuzzy neural network

According to related theories of regional economics, eight indexes closely related to development level county economy of certain city in Sichuan province were chosen. Evaluation model of county economy competitiveness in Sichuan province based on multi-layer fuzzy neural network was proposed in the Thesis. Firstly, evaluation for in county economic competitiveness was analyzed, and evaluation index system for its competitiveness was given. Model index was provided with pre-treatment by adopting analysis method for normalization and factor; secondly, one four-layer fuzzy neural network model was used, and hierarchical fuzzy neural network model for economic competitiveness evaluation of county region was proposed. It included input layer, fuzzy layer, fuzzy reasoning layer and output layer, and composition and computing method for fuzzy function block and neural network module were analyzed; finally, through empirical analysis, effectiveness for algorithm was verified.

Incorporating economies of scale in the cost estimation in economic evaluation of PCV and HPV vaccination programmes in the Philippines: a game changer?

BackgroundMany economic evaluations ignore economies of scale in their cost estimation, which means that cost parameters are assumed to have a linear relationship with the level of production. Economies of scale is the situation when the average total cost of producing a product decreases with increasing volume caused by reducing the variable costs due to more efficient operation. This study investigates the significance of applying the economies of scale concept: the saving in costs gained by an increased level of production in economic evaluation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccinations.MethodsThe fixed and variable costs of providing partial (20% coverage) and universal (100% coverage) vaccination programs in the Philippines were estimated using various methods, including costs of conducting questionnaire survey, focus-group discussion, and analysis of secondary data. Costing parameters were utilised as inputs for the two economic evaluation models for PCV and HPV. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and 5-year budget impacts with and without applying economies of scale to the costing parameters for partial and universal coverage were compared in order to determine the effect of these different costing approaches.ResultsThe program costs of the partial coverage for the two immunisation programs were not very different when applying and not applying the economies of scale concept. Nevertheless, the program costs for universal coverage were 0.26 and 0.32 times lower when applying economies of scale compared to not applying economies of scale for the pneumococcal and human papillomavirus vaccinations, respectively. ICERs varied by up to 98% for pneumococcal vaccinations, whereas the change in ICERs in the human papillomavirus vaccination depended on both the costs of cervical cancer screening and the vaccination program. This results in a significant difference in the 5-year budget impact, accounting for 30 and 40% of reduction in the 5-year budget impact for the pneumococcal and human papillomavirus vaccination programs.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated the feasibility and importance of applying economies of scale in the cost estimation in economic evaluation, which would lead to different conclusions in terms of value for money regarding the interventions, particularly with population-wide interventions such as vaccination programs. The economies of scale approach to costing is recommended for the creation of methodological guidelines for conducting economic evaluations.

Technical and Economic Evaluation Model of Organic Insulated Tubular Busbar Transmission Conductor

Technical and Economic Evaluation Model of Organic Insulated Tubular Busbar Transmission Conductor

Generic Cost-Effectiveness Models: A Proof of Concept of a Tool for Informed Decision-Making for Public Health Precision Medicine

Background/Aims: Economic evaluation is integral to informed public health decision-making in the rapidly growing field of precision and personalized medicine (PM); however, this research requires specialized expertise and significant resources. Generic models are a novel innovation to efficiently address a critical PM evidence shortage and implementation barrier by enabling use of population-specific input values. This is a generic PM economic evaluation model proof-of-concept study for a pharmacogenomic use case. Methods: An 8-step generic economic model development process was applied to the use case of human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-B*15:02genotyping for prediction of carbamazepine-induced cutaneous reactions, with a user-friendly decision-making tool relying on user-provided input values. This generic model was transparently documented and validated, including cross-validation comparing cost-effectiveness results with 3 country-specific models. Results: A generic pharmacogenomic use case cost-effectiveness model with decision-making tool was successfully developed and cross-validated using input values for 6 populations which produced consistent results for HLA-B*15:02 screening at country-specific cost-effectiveness threshold values. Differences between the generic and country-specific model results were largely due to differences in model structure and assumptions. Conclusion: This proof on concept demonstrates the feasibility of generic models to provide useful PM economic evidence, supporting their use as a pragmatic and timely approach to address a growing need.

Economic evaluation on container shipping route selection

The competition between each attractive container cargo port has been increasing drastically. Every port is striving to maintain the competitive edge and provide satisfactory services. This paper will provide an economic evaluation model which corresponds to the change of transshipment cargo volume of neighbour ports in North East Asia. The model, which classifies to Route 1 and Route 2, figures out an economic evaluation of the sea route, both routes hypothesise the Busan Port as a starting point. Basing on this model, it can generate an important data for deciding sea routes and calling ports of the shipping companies. Moreover, the shipping companies could improve a more efficient route and the related government authority or operational institution of each country could figure out the threshold of feeder cargo volume through this economic method.

Economic evaluation of emergency obstetric care training: a systematic review

BackgroundTraining healthcare providers in Emergency Obstetric Care (EmOC) has been shown to be effective in improving their capacity to provide this critical care package for mothers and babies. However, little is known about the costs and cost-effectiveness of such training. Understanding costs and cost-effectiveness is essential in guaranteeing value-for-money in healthcare spending. This study systematically reviewed the available literature on cost and cost-effectiveness of EmOC trainings.MethodsPeer-reviewed and grey literature was searched for relevant papers published after 1990. Studies were included if they described an economic evaluation of EmOC training and the training cost data were available. Two reviewers independently searched, screened, and selected studies that met the inclusion criteria, with disagreements resolved by a third reviewer. Quality of studies was assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards statement. For comparability, all costs in local currency were converted to International dollar (I$) equivalents using purchasing power parity conversion factors. The cost per training per participant was calculated. Narrative synthesis was used to summarise the available evidence on cost effectiveness.ResultsFourteen studies (five full and nine partial economic evaluations) met the inclusion criteria. All five and two of the nine partial economic evaluations were of high quality. The majority of studies (13/14) were from low- and middle-income countries. Training equipment, per diems and resource person allowance were the most expensive components. Cost of training per person per day ranged from I$33 to I$90 when accommodation was required and from I$5 to I$21 when training was facility-based. Cost-effectiveness of training was assessed in 5 studies with differing measures of effectiveness (knowledge, skills, procedure cost and lives saved) making comparison difficult.ConclusionsEconomic evaluations of EmOC training are limited. There is a need to scale-up and standardise processes that capture both cost and effectiveness of training and to agree on suitable economic evaluation models that allow for comparability across settings.Trial registrationPROSPERO_CRD42016041911.

Oncology Modeling for Fun and Profit! Key Steps for Busy Analysts in Health Technology Assessment.

In evaluating new oncology medicines, two common modeling approaches are state transition (e.g., Markov and semi-Markov) and partitioned survival. Partitioned survival models have become more prominent in oncology health technology assessment processes in recent years. Our experience in conducting and evaluating models for economic evaluation has highlighted many important and practical pitfalls. As there is little guidance available on best practices for those who wish to conduct them, we provide guidance in the form of 'Key steps for busy analysts,' who may have very little time and require highly favorable results. Our guidance highlights the continued need for rigorous conduct and transparent reporting of economic evaluations regardless of the modeling approach taken, and the importance of modeling that better reflects reality, which includes better approaches to considering plausibility, estimating relative treatment effects, dealing with post-progression effects, and appropriate characterization of the uncertainty from modeling itself.

An Economic Evaluation Model for Follicular Lymphoma (FL): Predicting Treatment Cost, Life Expectancy and Quality-Adjusted Life Year of Different Scenarios Using UK Population Based Observational Data

An Economic Evaluation Model for Follicular Lymphoma (FL): Predicting Treatment Cost, Life Expectancy and Quality-Adjusted Life Year of Different Scenarios Using UK Population Based Observational Data