Economic Dynamics Research Articles

Technological progress and economic dynamics: Unveiling the long memory of total factor productivity

This study aims to explore the dynamics of total factor productivity (TFP) in 40 advanced economies and its implications for economic stability, growth patterns, and technological integration. Understanding the concept of long memory in TFP is crucial in comprehending the diverse paths of economic development and technological advancement in different nations. The study endeavors to clarify the concept of long memory in TFP and analyze its impact on economic stability, growth patterns, and technological integration on a global scale. The research employs a sophisticated methodological framework that integrates a combination of unit root tests, non-parametric methods, fractional integration techniques, and ARFIMA models. This multifaceted approach provides a nuanced understanding of the persistence in TFP series and helps distinguish between stable and mean-reverting TFP dynamics across different nations. The analysis highlights the varying trajectories of TFP across these economies, which sheds light on the diverse paths of economic development and technological advancement. The findings of this research are pivotal in comprehending the role of TFP in shaping growth convergence, influencing business cycle fluctuations, and technological progress. The study contributes to policy discourse by proposing strategic policy measures that harness the long-term trends of TFP. These recommendations encompass key areas such as labor, capital, institutional frameworks, and innovation policies. Countries can optimize sustainable economic development and foster effective technological integration in an increasingly interconnected global economy by implementing these measures.

Decreasing Productivity in the Primary Healthcare: A Study of the Brazilian Case

ABSTRACT: In 2015, the United Nations (UN) proposed the 2030 Agenda, a resolution that outlines the global goals for sustainable development. This report focuses on promoting health and well-being, emphasizing the importance of primary healthcare (PHC). However, Brazil faces challenges in managing its healthcare system, exacerbated by fiscal policy changes that have reduced public sector expenditures after 2015. This study was motivated by these recent changes in Brazil’s fiscal policy. We evaluated potential fluctuations in total factor productivity (TFP) in 5,524 Brazilian municipalities’ primary healthcare from 2015 to 2019. TFP, a measure of efficiency and production technology in PHC, was computed using the bootstrapping Malmquist productivity index (MPI) derived from the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) algorithm. This study focused on the economic recession and austerity measures initiated in 2015. Moreover, it’s essential to highlight that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Brazil in 2020 brought significant changes to the country’s economic, social, and health dynamics. Therefore, this research intentionally concentrated on the pre-pandemic period. Our results revealed that TFP in the PHC sector in Brazil decreased between 2015 and 2019. It was possible to note that three out of every four Brazilian municipalities experienced either stagnation or a decline in the TFP of primary healthcare, with more pronounced challenges in the Midwest and Northeast regions. Looking at the TFP elements, we could see a continuous drop in technical efficiency everywhere in the country, markedly in the Midwest and Northeast. Conversely, there was a considerable uptick in Brazil’s technological component. These results implied that there might have been advancements in PHC’s technological infrastructure, preventing even less favorable outcomes in the TFP indicator. We concluded that the productivity of primary healthcare in Brazil declined when the 2015 fiscal ceiling was implemented. This decrease in performance was evident in the sluggish growth rate of primary healthcare inputs, a diminution in vaccination coverage indicators, and an increase in hospitalizations for preventable causes. Given that health is a crucial component of social well-being, it is vital to highlight the need for comprehensive efforts to guarantee the effective operation and advancement of primary healthcare services, even during economic downturns.

Assessing the impact of inflation and unemployment on economic growth in Albania

Abstract This manuscript aims to perform an in-depth analysis of the intricate relationship between inflation, unemployment, and economic growth within the Albanian economy. By employing advanced regression analysis techniques and thoroughly measuring the correlation between these key economic variables, this study endeavors to shed light on the underlying dynamics that characterize the economic landscape of Albania. Focusing particularly on the most recent period, the research seeks to provide a significant contribution to the existing body of knowledge regarding the country’s economic fluctuations and trends. The study meticulously synthesizes the findings from the regression analysis to offer insightful conclusions that elucidate the complex interactions between inflation, unemployment, and economic growth in Albania. The utilization of regression analysis and correlation metrics is expected to yield precise and detailed insights into these economic phenomena, thereby enhancing the understanding of how these variables influence each other. This research holds the potential to offer valuable recommendations for policymakers, economists, and stakeholders involved in shaping the economic policies of Albania. Ultimately, the study aims to contribute to a more nuanced comprehension of the economic dynamics within Albania and the multifaceted relationship between inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.

Tracking sustainability compliance of buildings in rapidly urbanizing Southeastern Nigeria

This study examines sustainability compliance in Southeast Nigeria, a region experiencing rapid economic, social, and environmental changes. The research uses a mixed-methods approach to collect both quantitative and qualitative data from various stakeholders, including enterprises, governments agencies, civil society organizations, and local communities. The findings reveal a complex landscape of sustainability compliance, highlighting gaps and barriers such as inadequate regulatory frameworks, limited resource access, and a lack of awareness and capacity-building initiatives. Additionally, cultural and societal factors significantly influence attitudes and behaviours towards sustainability. The study emphasizes the importance of context-specific approaches to sustainability compliance in a region characterized by unique socio-cultural and economic dynamics. It provides recommendations for policymakers, businesses, and civil society organizations to foster greater sustainability awareness, promote responsible practices, and create an enabling environment for sustainable development. Further research and collaborative efforts are needed to address these challenges and advance sustainability objectives in the Southeast region.

The Impact of Sustainable Tourism from the Point of View of Economic, Socio-Cultural and Environmental Dynamics

The Impact of Sustainable Tourism from the Point of View of Economic, Socio-Cultural and Environmental Dynamics

Boosting beach clean-up participation through community resilience hypothetical scenarios

Engaging coastal communities in beach clean-up initiatives is crucial for the sustainability of marine ecosystems and the support of the blue economy. This study aims to examine the influence of various resilience attributes on community willingness to participate in these activities. It uses choice experiment framework to test three distinct scenarios: (1) cultural recycling education, (2) social media task force, and (3) resilience debris recovery. The study surveyed 647 valid samples from metropolitan Bali, Indonesia to assess their preferences across these scenarios. Advanced econometric models, specifically the Random Parameter Logit (RPL) and Latent Class Model (LCM), were used to analyze the data. The results indicate that integrating cultural and digital engagement strategies can significantly enhance community participation in beach clean-ups, providing a model that can be applied in various coastal regions. Each scenario improves community engagement by aligning beach clean-up efforts with broader economic and cultural dynamics.

Navigating Uncertainty: Evaluating the Pandemic's Impact on Warung Upnormal's Expansion Strategy

The COVID-19 pandemic presented significant challenges to the food and beverage industry, impacting consumption patterns and economic dynamics. This research aims to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the expansion strategy of Warunk Upnormal, one of the leading restaurant chains in Indonesia. This research employs a case study approach to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the food and beverage industry in Indonesia. the pandemic led to a 40% decline in sales, necessitating adaptations like transitioning to take-away-only operations. While foot traffic gradually recovered post-pandemic, changing consumer preferences prompted the closure of multiple outlets. Financial strains exacerbated by the franchise model underscored the delicate balance between profitability and operational sustainability. Similarly, other startups like Kopi Kenangan faced challenges despite alternative business strategies. Roy Mandey of the Indonesian Retailers Association emphasizes the importance of adaptability and innovation in navigating volatile market conditions. Sustained innovation and a deep understanding of evolving consumer preferences will be crucial for future success in the post-pandemic landscape.

Tourism in rural areas as a broader concept: Some insights from the Portuguese reality

Abstract For sustainable rural development, the complementarity between the socioeconomic activities developed in rural areas is fundamental to create synergies and economic dynamics with positive externalities for the populations in less favoured spaces. The great challenge for the rural regions is the creation of attractive employment to avoid the desertification of these areas and the respective consequences. Some of the impacts of the rural exodus are related to the agroforestry activities abandonment and the increase of biomass in the respective land which, in certain circumstances, is fuel for forest fires. Tourism in rural areas/space (TRA/S) may contribute significantly to improving the complementarity among activities in less favoured spaces and promoting sustainability in mentioned areas. From this perspective, this research aims to explore dimensions associated with TRA/S, highlighting the main contributions from the scientific literature and showing that it can be considered, in some contexts, a broader concept than the concept of rural tourism. To achieve these objectives, first a systematic review based on metrics from the bibliometric analysis was carried out, considering 165 documents found in the Scopus database in a search performed on 19 March 2024 for the following topics and conditions: “tourism in rural areas” or “tourism in rural space.” Then, statistics on the Portuguese reality are presented and analysed, highlighting evidence of the context in Portugal. The findings obtained from the systematic review and bibliometric analysis show the importance of this economic activity for the rural regions and reveal some gaps in the literature that may be considered in future studies, namely the following: the links between tourism in rural areas and economic dynamics should be further developed, further address the interconnection between TRA/S dynamics and the Sustainable Development Goals, and more knowledge about the particularities of each Portuguese context. The statistical analysis of the Portuguese context shows that tourism in rural areas has benefited from the pandemic; it seems that tourists have discovered this form of tourism.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RUSSIA IN THE LONG TERM

The objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between the economic weight of Russia and its large neighboring countries (Japan, Germany, Turkey, and Poland) until the end of the 21st century. The primary research method is a systematic comparative analysis of key aspects influencing economic development. The analytical model is based on the dominant influence of human capital on economic dynamics. Among Russia's large neighboring countries, during the period from 2005 to 2023, Japan exhibited the slowest GDP growth by PPP with an exponential trend (3.0 times slower), followed by Poland (1.64 times slower) and Germany (1.4 times slower). Turkey's GDP growth by PPP was 27% higher than that of Russia, which outpaced the global average growth rate by approximately 16%. Russia's unexpected move from 6th to 4th place in the world by GDP in PPP terms is a result of the economy's heavy dependence on oil prices and a series of oil price crises in 2008, 2014, and 2020, which obscured the real growth of the Russian economy. It has been shown that periods of convergence in GDP by PPP between Russia and large neighboring countries (mainly Germany) have repeatedly coincided with military conflicts. These include the War of 1812, World Wars I and II, the Russia-Georgia conflict (2008), and others. In terms of population size, which is the most important factor in GDP growth, Russia has slightly outpaced Japan over the last 35 years (by 16.5% in 2023). Going forward, Japan's population will decline rapidly compared to Russia. The fastest-growing neighboring country, Turkey, will reach the closest point of convergence with Russia in population size by 2060, after which the gap will begin to widen. In terms of the proportion of the population with tertiary education (DT), Russia (57%) is ahead of the neighboring countries under consideration, but Russia's DT growth over the last 20 years has been only 3%, which is a significant problem.

Exogenous Hazard Rates and Precautionary Behaviour in Resource Economic Dynamics

AbstractEconomic analysis of catastrophic risk is a topic that unfortunately has become more relevant since the 1960s. An important question when a vital resource stock is at risk is whether one should invest more in the stock to create a buffer against a catastrophe or allow the stock to decrease as risk makes its future value decrease. The present paper analyses exogenous catastrophic risk where the probability of catastrophe cannot be controlled. Conditions for when precautionary behaviour is optimal are given with general functional forms. The paper analyses both problems with a single catastrophe and problems with an infinite sequence of catastrophes. It is shown that most of the results pertaining to a single catastrophe carry over to the case with an infinite number of catastrophes.

Indonesian GDP movement detection using online news classification

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stands as a pivotal indicator, offering strategic insights into economic dynamics. Recent technological advancements, particularly in real-time information dissemination through online economic news platforms, provide an accessible and alternative data source for analyzing GDP movements. This study employs online news classification to identify patterns in the movement and growth rate of Indonesia’s GDP. Utilizing a web scraping technique, we collected data for analysis. The classification models employed include transfer learning from pre-trained language model transformers, with classical machine learning methods serving as baseline models. The results indicate superior performance by the pre-trained language model transformers, achieving the highest accuracy of 0.8880 and 0.7899. In comparison, hyperparameter-tuned classical machine learning models also demonstrated commendable results, with the best accuracy reaching 0.845 and 0.7811. This research underscores the efficacy of leveraging online news classification, particularly through advanced language models. The findings contribute to a nuanced understanding of economic dynamics, aligning with the contemporary landscape of information accessibility and technological progress.

Geographical distribution of the COVID‐19 pandemic and key determinants: Evolution across waves in Spain

AbstractAmidst the COVID‐19 pandemic, most research has examined specific temporal snapshots. This study diverges by offering a comprehensive analysis of COVID‐19 incidence across the Spanish provinces throughout six distinct waves of the pandemic. Using spatial exploratory techniques, we find no single pandemic; rather, there have been waves. Significant differences in the spatial distribution of cases and deaths across six waves show that each has unique characteristics. Homogeneous conclusions cannot be drawn at the national level. Notable regional differences in the pandemic’s spatial distribution suggest a need for subnational responses, reflecting variations in climate, economic dynamism, sectoral specialisation, and socio‐health resources. Spatial regression models show that the main determinants of COVID‐19 incidence depend on stage. Traditional factors commonly associated with epidemiological studies, such as temperature, exerted significant influence during the pandemic’s onset. However, as mobility restrictions were enforced and vaccination campaigns were rolled out, economic conditions, and especially levels of economic activity, emerged as increasingly significant determinants.

Exploring the impact of renewable energy, green taxes and trade openness on carbon neutrality: New insights from BRICS countries

The world faces two significant challenges: promoting sustainable economic growth and reaching carbon neutrality. In BRICS countries, these challenges are shaped by renewable energy, green taxes, and trade openness. These countries were selected for their strategic location and the abundance of relevant data collected over the period of 1990–2021, providing a distinctive window into the energy and economic dynamics of the area. The link between renewable energy consumption, green taxes, trade openness, and natural resources and their effects on carbon emissions in BRICS countries is examined in this study using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square Method (FMOLS) estimator and the Drisc Kraay estimator for the robustness test. The findings indicate that using renewable energy and green taxes primarily contribute to reducing emissions, particularly at higher emissions levels. The study reveals that various factors, namely financial globalization, trade openness, efficient resource management, and population growth, substantially impact carbon neutrality. Population growth positively impacts carbon neutrality, while using renewable energy sources mitigates it. Furthermore, the empirical findings show a statistically significant positive association between financial globalization, efficient resource management, and carbon neutrality in BRICS nations. Therefore, it is necessary to implement an integrated ecological governance strategy to control and direct financial resources towards sustainable development and green energy.

Mathematical Perspectives on Consumer Spending during a Financial Crisis

This paper explores the mathematical dynamics of consumer spending during a financial crisis using opponent process theory (OPT). Traditionally applied in psychology, OPT explains how initial emotional responses are followed by counteracting reactions to restore equilibrium. This study models the short-term boost in consumer spending and subsequent economic adjustments. Utilizing differential equations to represent these processes, this paper provides insights into the interplay between immediate policy effects and longer-term economic consequences. We focus on the United States (US) response to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis in this study. Results show evidence of diminishing response from prolonged stimuli due to demand saturation, resource allocation inefficiencies, and agent adaptation. Monetary stimuli may inflate debt/prices, outweighing benefits, and structural issues persist despite stimuli. Confidence and expectations impact response because perceived ineffectiveness weakens impact over time. Thus, while stimuli can initially boost activity, their sustained impact demands careful consideration of economic dynamics and agents’ responses.

Economic Growth Analysis When Balanced Growth Paths May Be Time Varying

AbstractThe determinants of an economy's growth path for income per head may vary over time. In this paper, we apply unobserved components analysis to an otherwise standard panel model of economic growth dynamics so that an economy's long‐run relative income per head can change at any point of time. We apply this model to data for US states for 1929–2021 and the world economy for 1970–2019. In both datasets an economy's initial relative income per head is a good predictor of its long‐run relative income per head. Relatively poor economies on average remain relatively poor.

Principles of Economic Externality Dynamics Economic Dynamics and the Standard Model (V)

The present paper discusses the importance of economic externality and the economic phenomena involved. Section 1 draws on the framework of weak force theory in physics, we propose a new approach of dynamic analysis for economic externality. From a mesoscopic (intermediate scale) perspective, no distinction is made between the macro-demand and individual micro-buyers nor between the macro-supply and individual micro-sellers. Section 2 applies the isospin modeling method to construct two economic isospin models. One is between the achieving impulse and the fear-of-failure impulse, under the effect of economic externality. The other is between the market behavior and market residues, namely, market aftertaste. Section 3 discusses the microstructural properties of the market, including Dirac's equation and the market, Dirac γmatrix notation, and the chirality and spin structure of market components. Section 4 discusses the helical structural characteristics of supply chains, including CPT theorems, Penrose zigzag helical processes, and several modeling directions of economic externality and buyer-seller interactions (weak interactions). Section 5 discusses the economic externality and the electroweak model, including extensive externality, externality mediations with Weinberg rotations, and economic analysis using lepton weak currents, including the analysis of lepton neutral weak currents. Finally, Section 6 provides a general discussion on the standard model of economic dynamics.

Quantitative Assessment of Market Conditions and Marketing Strategies in the Financial Products Sector: A Case Study of XX Insurance Company, Beijing

The financial products sector in China has undergone significant transformation, driven by economic reforms, technological advancements, and evolving consumer preferences. This study provides a quantitative assessment of market conditions and marketing strategies within this sector, with a specific focus on XX Insurance Company, Beijing. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey of 200 respondents in Beijing, the research examines key factors influencing market dynamics, evaluates the effectiveness of XX Insurance Company’s marketing strategies, and identifies the main drivers of consumer behavior. The findings reveal a generally favorable market environment, with economic growth, regulatory changes, and competitive dynamics as primary influencers. Notably, product features, competitive pricing, strong brand reputation, and excellent customer service emerged as significant factors affecting consumer decisions. The study highlights the importance of digital presence, customer service, and innovative product offerings in enhancing marketing effectiveness. Based on the insights gained, several recommendations are proposed to optimize the company’s marketing strategies and improve its market positioning. This research contributes valuable knowledge to both the academic community and industry practitioners, offering practical guidance for navigating the competitive landscape of China's insurance market.

Economic and strategic challenges in microgrid integration: Insights from operational dynamics and renewable energy potential

With the integration of a large number of microgrids in the power distribution network operation, economic and strategic challenges arise. To address these challenges, this research provides a comprehensive investigation into the operational, economic, and strategic dynamics of microgrids. Through careful data analysis, the study interprets the complications of microgrid responses to seasonal changes. It also investigates energy consumption patterns and production dynamics. The detailed analysis of microgrid configurations reveals the unique attributes and challenges of PV, wind, and hydropower microgrids. Moreover, the research explains the financial implications of microgrid integration, from setup costs to potential ROI. It is also examining the cooperative relationship between microgrids and conventional grids. Key findings highlight that solar microgrids contribute 3.2% to 5.3%, wind microgrids provide 5.9% to 7.4%, and hydropower microgrids contribute 24.4% of total power. Energy purchase peaks at 850,000 kWh in August and declines to 580,000 kWh in May. 170,000 kWh of energy is sold back to the grid in May. Moreover, the grid energy costs reduced from $0.178 kWh to $0.30 kWh. The total net present cost of the system is achieved at $37,880,023.33. Renewable energy production ranges from 480 kW to 2,300 kW, with a penetration level reaching 160%.

Legal Challenges and Opportunities in World Trade Organization Agreements: A Comparative Analysis of Member States

The World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements have a broad and complex impact on its member countries, especially regarding trade policy and global economic justice. Legal challenges in implementing these agreements, including harmonization between national and international law, as well as domestic political and economic dynamics, add to the complexity of their implementation. In addition, the WTO agreements also offer significant opportunities for member countries, such as wider market access and increased foreign investment. This study aims to analyze the long-term impact of the WTO agreements on trade policy, economic justice, and sustainable development in its member countries. This study uses a qualitative approach, with data obtained from various relevant sources such as research results and previous studies, which are then processed and analyzed in depth. The results show that the WTO agreements significantly shape the direction of member countries' future trade policies, with a greater impact felt by developing countries. Global economic injustice has emerged as one of the consequences of the implementation of these agreements, where developed countries are better able to utilize WTO provisions. On the other hand, the environmental and social impacts of implementing the WTO agreements are concerns that require better integration into trade policy. Projections of future challenges suggest that the WTO must continue to adapt to global changes to remain relevant and effective. Overall, this study highlights the need for a balance between trade liberalization and the protection of social and environmental values ​​within the WTO framework.

Enhancing Economic, Social, and Ecological Resilience Through Sustainable Waterfront Development in Penang

The global economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted development across various regions, including Penang, where supply chain disruptions, restricted cash flow, and delayed progress have led to reduced economic growth for stakeholders and communities alike. This study aims to explore the interconnected economic, social, and ecological (ESE) systems within the context of sustainable waterfront development in Penang, focusing on how these systems contribute to economic resilience and dynamism. The land and water resources of Penang, strategically situated along vital maritime routes, present substantial potential for economic revitalization. A quantitative research approach was employed, gathering data from questionnaire surveys, revealing a positive correlation between ESE variables. Key attributes such as local authority governance, development scale and impact, business operations, place identity, heritage preservation, and waste management were found to play crucial roles in shaping sustainable waterfront initiatives. The study highlights that Penang’s core economic sectors—agriculture, mining and quarrying, manufacturing, construction, and services—have historically driven the local economy, but the growing focus on waterfront development offers new avenues for economic recovery and growth. The results validate the chosen quantitative methodology and underscore the importance of adopting integrated strategies to address land and water management challenges. By aligning with sustainability goals and adopting a holistic approach, Penang's waterfront development can foster resilience, ensuring long-term socio-economic and ecological balance. The insights provided contribute to a broader understanding of sustainable urban development and offer actionable strategies for policymakers and stakeholders involved in Penang's waterfront projects.