Scenarios Of Economic Development Research Articles

Economy of the Future Through the Eyes of Futurologists. Positive Changes Journal Expert Discussion

Leading economists and futurologists met at the session organized by the Positive Changes Journal and devoted to the main topic of the special issue — the economy of the future. Will there be an increase in prosperity and where will it lead? What are the trends in economic development? What should be envisaged while building an economic development scenario? Will the economy of the future become human-centered? Are the fears of artificial intelligence justified? How will space be explored? What do we need to do to bring the kind of future we like closer? The panelists discuss this and much more. The conversation was facilitated by Vladimir Vainer, director of the Positive Changes Factory. The editorial staff publishes a transcript of the conversation.

Construct the future wetland ecological security pattern with multi-scenario simulation

The construction of wetland ecological security pattern has important guiding significance for balancing urban development and ecological restoration. In this paper, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use change under the business as usual scenario (BAU), economic development scenario (ED) and expansionary conservation scenario (EC) in 2030. Coupled with the wetland ecological security pattern, four wetland ecological networks were constructed for vertical and horizontal comparative analysis. The optimal network was selected and ecological pinch points and obstacles were identified. The results showed that: (1) The land use change mainly occurred in the main urban area of Haikou. Under BAU and ED scenarios, the area of construction land increased greatly. Under EC scenarios, the overall ecological land in Haikou would expand, but the area of wetland showed a downward trend. (2) In 2030, the overall ecological wetland network will be improved, the number and length of corridors will increase significantly, and the network structure under EC scenario will be more stable. (3) The number and area of ecological pinch points and obstacle points under the EC scenario in 2020 and 2030 increased significantly, and this area should be regarded as a priority area for ecological protection. This study provides a new perspective for ecological protection and restoration, and provides a reference for clarifying the direction of wetland ecological restoration work and formulating urban construction and development policies.

How can multiscenario flow paths of water supply services be simulated? A supply-flow-demand model of ecosystem services across a typical basin in China

Ecosystems provide many benefits to humans, and among them, water supply is crucial for human survival and development. This research focused on the Yangtze River Basin as the research area, quantitatively evaluated the temporal-spatial dynamic changes in the supply and demand of water supply services and determined the spatial relationship between the supply and demand regions of water supply services. We constructed the supply-flow-demand model of water supply service to quantify its flow. In our research, the Bayesian model was used to establish a multiscenario model of the water supply service flow path to simulate it and clarify its spatial flow path, flow direction and flow magnitude from the supply region to the demand region and determine its changing characteristics and driving factors in the basin. The results show that (1) In 2010, 2015 and 2020, the amount of water supply services showed a decreasing trend and was approximately 133.57 × 1012 m3, 129.97 × 1012 m3 and 120.82 × 1012 m3, respectively. (2) From 2010 to 2020, the trend of the cumulative flow of water supply service flow decreased each year and was 59.814 × 1012 m3, 56.930 × 1012 m3, 56.325 × 1012 m3 respectively. (3) Under the multiscenario simulation, the flow path of the water supply service was generally the same. The proportion of the water supply region was the highest under the green environmental protection scenario, at 73.8 %, and the proportion of the water demand region was the highest under the economic development and social progress scenario, at 27.3 %. (4) The provinces and municipalities in the basin were divided into three types of regions according to the matching relationship between supply and demand: catchment region, flow pass-through region and outflow region. The number of outflow regions was lowest, accounting for 23.53 %% of the regions, while the number of flow pass-through regions was the highest, accounting for 52.94 %.

Dynamic Evolution and Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Services under the Impact of Land-Use Change in an Arid Inland River Basin in Xinjiang, China

Ecosystem services (ESs) are crucial for sustainable development, as they impact human well-being. However, changes in land use/land cover (LULC) caused by climate change and social development can negatively affect ESs, particularly in arid river basins. This study focuses on current and future changes in LULC in the Kaxghar River Basin (KRB) in Xinjiang, China, to determine how these changes will affect the region’s ESs. The integrated PLUS-InVEST model was used to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution and changing patterns of habitat quality (HQ) and carbon storage (CS) under the natural increase scenario (NIS), economic development scenario (EDS), and water protection scenario (WPS). Additionally, the Ecosystem Service Contribution Index (ESCI) was also calculated to evaluate the contribution of LULC changes to ESs. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the average value of HQ in the KRB gradually decreased from 0.54 to 0.49 and CS trended slightly upward, with a total increase of 0.07 × 106 t. Furthermore, the changes in CS were highly consistent with changes in LULC. (2) From 2020 to 2030, the area of low-grade (0–0.2) HQ saw a continuous increase, with the fastest growth occurring in 2030 under the EDS. Meanwhile, under the WPS, HQ significantly improved, expanding by 1238 km2 in area. Total CS under the three test scenarios tended to decline, with the NIS showing the smallest decrease. (3) The expansion of cropland and unused land had a negative impact on ESs, particularly on CS, whereas the conversion to grassland and forestland had a significant positive impact. In conclusion, these insights will enrich our understanding of ESs in the study area and contribute to balancing the relationship between ecological conservation and socioeconomic development in the Kaxghar River Basin, as well as in other parts of China’s arid Northwest and similar regions around the world.

Attribution and driving force of nitrogen losses from the Taihu Lake Basin by the InVEST and GeoDetector models

Quantifying temporal and spatial changes in reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses from a watershed and exploring its main drivers are the key to watershed water quality improvements. Huge Nr losses continue to threaten the safety of the water environment in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB). Here, the InVEST and GeoDetector models were combined to estimate Nr losses in the TLB from 1990 to 2020 and explore driving forces. Different scenarios for Nr losses were compared, showing that Nr loss peaked at 181.66 × 103 t in 2000. The key factors affecting Nr loss are land use, followed by elevation, soil, and slope factors, and their mean q-values were 0.82, 0.52, 0.51, and 0.48, respectively. The scenario analysis revealed that Nr losses increased under the business-as-usual and economic development scenarios, while ecological conservation, increased nutrient use efficiency, and reduced nutrient application all contribute to a reduction in Nr losses. The findings provide a scientific reference for Nr loss control and future planning in the TLB.

Quantity and spatial imbalance of supply and demand for water yield services in terrestrial ecosystems under different future land use scenarios in Xinjiang, China

Drylands in northwest China have limited water resources, which negatively impacts economic development, ecological security, and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, few studies have examined water supply and demand under multiple future spatial patterns of land use, particularly under sustainable development scenarios. Further research is therefore needed to determine how affect water output services under various land use patterns. We used the GMOP-PLUS (Gray Multi-objective Optimization-Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) and the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) models to investigate future land use programs and the current and future trends in water yield services supply and demand in the typical dryland region of Xinjiang, China. The GMOP-PLUS model was used to project the spatial patterns of land use/land cover (LULC) change in Xinjiang in 2025 and 2030 under programs of business-as-usual, rapid economic development, ecological land protection and sustainable development. We then used the InVEST model to project the spatiotemporal evolution of water yield services supply and demand under the four different scenarios. Our results show that Our results show that water production in Xinjiang decreases to 911.30 × 108 m3 in 2020–2030 under the business-as-usual scenario, with an expansion in arable land and a reduction in forested land being the main causes of this decrease. The decline in water production under the ecological land protection scenario is 913.88 × 108 m3. The retention effect of vegetation slows the decline in water production, but the ecological land protection scenario is not effective in controlling the reduction in arable land. The rapid economic development scenario produces a significant increase in water yield of 915.09 × 108 m3, mainly due to an increase in the area of impervious surfaces caused by the expansion of built-up land; however, the rapid economic development scenario leads to a decreasing trend in ecological land. The sustainable development scenario produces 914.15 × 108 m3 of water. The sustainable development scenario increases water production while balancing the development of Constructed and the protection of ecological land, and the arable land also shows a slow growth trend. Between 2025 and 2030, the water security index fluctuates between –0.0225 and –0.0400, with a continued future deficit in water supply and demand in Xinjiang and a high degree of spatial heterogeneity. Programs for advancing sustainable development narrow the supply–demand gap for services that produce water.

Learning from the Future of Kuwait: Scenarios as a Learning Tool to Build Consensus for Actions Needed to Realize Vision 2035

This perspective is a qualitative meta-analysis study using a critical interpretive synthesis that narrates three future and equally plausible scenarios of social and economic development in the State of Kuwait over the next 15 years. The first scenario follows what we call the ‘Sustainable Growth’ model as defined by the United Nations Development Goals and the Kuwait Vision 2035 presented by the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah. As a polar opposite, the next scenario is what we call the ‘Mismanaged Resourced-Based Autocracy’ model, a negative reflection of the worst-case scenario. The third scenario is in between these two, and we call it the ‘Equality of Outcome Between Societal Groups’ model. So as not to lay blame for past actions or point fingers, which could prove counterproductive to a consensus-building process for needed actions, we chose to use the pasts of other countries for future projections for the State of Kuwait. Our search through recent socio-economic pasts revealed that Singapore was the best fit for the first scenario, Venezuela for the second, and Lebanon for the third. All these countries became fully independent at approximately the same time as the State of Kuwait and share many other similarities. The three future projections were used as input variables to the outcome, which was a bottom-up and top-down consensus-making process regarding utilitarian action for Kuwait to be used by Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), Think-Tanks, Development Agencies, the government and the parliament.

Multi-Scenario Land Use Simulation and Land Use Conflict Assessment Based on the CLUMondo Model: A Case Study of Liyang, China

By predicting and analyzing regional land use conflicts (LUCs), the contradictory relationship between urban development and land resources can be revealed, which can assist in achieving the rational use of land resources. Taking Liyang as a case study, this paper simulated land use in 2030 under three scenarios, namely, the natural growth scenario (NGS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS), using the CLUMondo model. The ecological risk assessment model was used to measure the LUCs under each scenario. Through the comprehensive analysis of land use conversion, spatial distribution, and the change characteristics of LUCs, optimization strategies for future land use are proposed. The results indicate that (1) the intensity of land conversion under the three scenarios is ranked as EDS > NGS > EPS; (2) there is little change in the LUCs under the EPS, while significant deterioration is observed under the NGS and EDS; (3) the intensity of LUCs is positively correlated with the degree of land use conversion; and (4) in the future, particular attention should be paid to areas around the city center, the Caoshan Development Zone in the northwest, and Nanshan Bamboo Sea in the south, where high-intensity land use conflicts may occur.

Construction of ecological security pattern adapting to future land use change in Pearl River Delta, China

Land use and cover change (LUCC) can often threaten urban ecological space and cause enormous impacts on the ecosystem, and sustainable ecological security patterns (ESPs) should receive more attention in urban landscape planning to adapt to future environmental changes. Thus, this research explored a multi-scenario framework of ESP by coupling the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) models for long-term sustainable ecological security in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), China. The results show that areas of ecological sources in 2030 under the natural development scenario (NDS), economic development scenario (EDS), food security scenario (FSS), and ecological priority scenario (EPS) will account for 11.58%, 3.71%, 10.55%, and 16.50% of the total area, respectively. 45 ecological corridors under NDS, EDS, FSS, and EPS will be 8573.07 km, 7970.54 km, 9197.15 km, and 7769.24 km, respectively. The future corridors, that will be annularly in the periphery of economic development zones, can better balance economic development and ecological protection. Under the EPS scenario, the constructed ESP will have the best network structure and can effectively protect ecological land and reduce damage. This work provides a valuable reference for ecosystem conservation and land resource management under the rapid urbanization process.

Optimizing landscape patterns to maximize ecological‐production benefits of water–food relationship: Evidence from the West Liaohe River basin, China

AbstractWatershed governance based on landscape pattern is a key research topic of watershed sustainable development, and the ecosystem services related to water resource management (WMESs) have become an important focus. The current research mainly focuses on the impact of land use type or landscape pattern on WMESs, while few studies focus on the relationship between WMESs and food production (FP), and the understanding of the impact of landscape pattern configuration on the water–food relationship is relatively limited. In this study, the West Liaohe River basin in China was selected as the research area. Based on the assessment of three WMESs (water yield, WY; soil loss by water, SW; and water purification, WP) and FP using models, we analyzed the influence mechanism of landscape pattern evolution on water–food relationship from 2000 to 2020. Then, the optimal allocation scheme of regional landscape patterns was discussed based on future land use scenario simulations. The results showed that the influence of landscape pattern evolution on the water–food relationship at the patch type level was higher than that at the landscape level, and the spatial configuration of landscape patterns can improve the water–food relationship. Promoting the intensive management of cropland and strengthening the construction of forest and grassland can improve the overall capacity of the WMESs and FP supply in the watershed. The study suggests that the natural development scenario, economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS) should be implemented in counties A, B, and C, respectively. This indicates that counties with higher FP capacity are suitable for the EDS, while counties with lower FP capacity are suitable for the EPS, which will help maximize the benefits of FP and WMESs protection. The results of this study can provide a direct decision‐making basis for the maximization of ecological‐production benefits of the water–food relationship in watersheds and provide a scientific reference for land use policy regulation and ecological security protection of the watershed areas.

Evaluation of future wetland changes under optimal scenarios and land degradation neutrality analysis in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Wetlands are one of the most productive ecosystems on Earth and are also focused on by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, global wetlands have suffered from considerable degradation due to rapid urbanization and climate change. To support wetland protection and SDG reporting, we predicted future wetland changes and assessed land degradation neutrality (LDN) from 2020 to 2035 under four scenarios in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). A simulation model combining random forest (RF), CLUE-S and multi-objective programming (MOP) methods was developed to predict wetland patterns under the natural increase scenario (NIS), economic development scenario (EDS), ecological protection and restoration scenario (ERPS) and harmonious development scenario (HDS). The simulation results indicated that the integration of RF and CLUE-S achieved good simulation accuracy, with OA over 0.86 and kappa indices over 0.79. From 2020 to 2035, the mangrove, tidal flat and agricultural pond increased while the coastal shallow water decreased under all scenarios. The river decreased under NIS and EDS, while increased under ERPS and HDS. The Reservoir decreased under NIS, while increased under the remaining scenarios. Among scenarios, the EDS had the largest built-up land and agricultural pond, and the ERPS had the largest forest and grassland. The HDS was a coordinated scenario that balanced economic development and ecological protection. Its natural wetlands were almost equal to these of ERPS, and its built-up land and cropland were almost equal to these of EDS. Then, the land degradation and SDG 15.3.1 indicators were calculated to support the LDN target. From 2020 to 2035, the ERPS had a smallest gap of 705.51 km2 from the LDN target, following the HDS, EDS and NIS. The SDG 15.3.1 indicator was lowest under the ERPS, with a value of 0.85 %. Our study could offer strong support for urban sustainable development and SDGs reporting.

Assessment of the impact of wetland changes on carbon storage in coastal urban agglomerations from 1990 to 2035 in support of SDG15.1

The quantitative assessment and spatial representation of wetland carbon storage, which play a critical role in the global carbon cycle and human production, can provide useful data and knowledge for decision-making in achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). Currently, human activities and climate change impacts pose a challenge for the assessment of wetland carbon storage in coastal urban clusters. We proposed a “past-present-future” long time series refined wetland carbon storage assessment model using Guangxi Beibu Gulf (GBG) and Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and the Greater Bay Area (GBA) as the study area. The CLUE-S and InVEST models were coupled to conduct a comparative analysis of the spatial and temporal changes in wetland carbon storage and the spatial identification of damages from 1990 to 2035 and finally explore the sensitivity of wetland changes to carbon storage and quantitatively assess the SDG15.1 target. The results showed that (1) both urban clusters are characterized by many reservoirs/farming ponds, large river areas and few lakes. 1990–2035 rivers, shallow waters and mudflats have a decreasing trend to be distributed in the middle of their respective regions, mangroves are on an increasing trend, GBG is mainly distributed in the Maowei Sea and GBA is mainly distributed in Shenzhen Bay. (2) Wetland carbon storage of the two urban clusters show an overall fluctuating downward trend, with rivers, lakes and beaches all showing a downward trend. The multiyear average carbon storage of the GBG are 3.2 times higher than those of the GBA. In ecological protection scenario (EPS) policy planning, it is reasonable to help wetland carbon sequestration in coastal urban clusters. (3) The trend of wetland change from 1990 to 2020 was positive for carbon storage. The rate of recovery of wetland carbon stocks is lower in GBA than in GBG under the natural increase scenario (NIS) and the ecological protection scenario (EPS). The economic development scenario (EDS) contributes least to the realisation of SDG15.1 for the coastal urban agglomeration. The ecological protection scenario (EPS) contributes the most to the realisation of SDG15.1 for the coastal urban agglomeration.

Systematic Evaluation and Influencing Factors Analysis of Water Environmental Carrying Capacity in Taihu Basin, China

Systematic evaluation of water environment carrying capacity (WECC) is a prerequisite for achieving sustainable development, which reflects the water environment comprehensive condition of lake basin under the current economic development scenario. Therefore, taking the Taihu Basin as a case study, a scientific comprehensive evaluation index system of WECC was established based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) assessment framework, which included water resources (WR), pollution emission (PE), water quality (WQ), water ecology (WE), and land use (LU) sub-systems. An expert group was invited to determine the weights of each indicator using the group analytic hierarchy process (G-AHP) method, and the indicators in the WR, PE, WQ, WE, and LU sub-systems were 6.5%, 21.8%, 27.9%, 11.1%, and 32.9%, respectively. According to the evaluation results, the WECC index of Taihu Basin increased by 51.4% from 2007 to 2019, but it still slightly exceeded the carrying capacity of the water environment; the water quality and pollution discharge indices had the most significant improvement. Algal blooms are a major factor challenging WECC in the Taihu Basin. Therefore, the overall restoration of the water eco-system must receive more attention in the future.

Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China.

High-frequency land-use changes caused by rapid economic development have become a key factor in the imbalance of carbon sequestration within regions. How to balance economic development and ecological protection is a difficult issue for regional planning. Studying the relationship between future land-use changes and ecosystem carbon storage (CS) is of important significance for the optimization of regional land-use patterns. The research used the gray prediction model and coupled the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model. On this basis, the evolution characteristics and spatial coordination between land-use changes and CS in the Dongting Lake Basin (DLB) in different scenarios in 2030 were simulated. The results show that: (1) The spatial distribution of CS remains stable in different scenarios, while land-use types with high carbon density in the periphery of cities are constantly invaded by construction land, which results in the greatest carbon loss in the urban areas. (2) Compared with the natural evolution scenario (NES), only 195.19 km2 of land-use types with high carbon density are transformed into construction land in the ecological protection scenario (EPS), generating a carbon sink gain of 182.47 × 104 Mg. Conversely, in the economic development scenario (EDS), a total of over 1400 km2 of farmland and ecological land are transformed into construction land, which weakens the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems, and more than 147 × 104 Mg of carbon loss occurs in the urban areas. (3) The planned development scenario (PDS) takes ecological protection and economic development both into consideration, which not only generates a carbon sink gain of 121.33 × 104 Mg but also reduces the carbon loss in urban areas by more than 50%. The PDS performs well in both land use and CS growth and can better motivate the effect of land-use changes in increasing the carbon sink, which is also proved by analysis of the coordination between land-use intensity (LUI) and CS. Therefore, the PDS better satisfies the future development demand of DLB and can provide a reference for sustainable land use in the basin.

A fuzzy-DEA water sustainability index: an application in European Union water risk hotspots

AbstractThe current global freshwater crisis threatens the present and future supply of water as a resource for humans. The scarcity of drinking water and the dependence of the food industry on water-intensive supply chains require the urgent development of strategies to analyze and guarantee the water sustainability of countries. This study proposes a fuzzy-data envelopment analysis composite index that measures, from a benchmarking approach, water sustainability by simultaneously considering capacity and resilience, and captures the uncertainty associated with time series variations in three scenarios: pessimistic, indifferent and optimistic. We present and apply an index based on five indicators of capacity and five indicators of resilience in ten European Union countries water risk hotspots. The results in terms of capacity presented a higher variability due to the strong growth in the exploitation of water resources in Greece, Spain, France, Italy and Portugal. The most sustainable countries in terms of capacity were Bulgaria and Estonia in a pessimistic and an indifferent scenario and France and Bulgaria in an optimistic scenario. In terms of resilience, Belgium and Portugal were the most sustainable countries. When considering capacity and resilience together, some countries such as Bulgaria and Estonia lost positions in the ranking, with Belgium occupying the first position. Some countries, such as Bulgaria, could see the sustainability of their water resources compromised in a scenario of economic development if they do not improve their governance and water productivity constraints.

Response and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage and Habitat Quality to Land Use in Liaoning Province, China

Liaoning Province, as an old industrial urban agglomeration since the founding of China, is an important link between the Bohai Economic Zone and the Northeast Economic Zone, and it has made great contributions to the economic development of China. The transformation of China’s economy and heavy industrial development have posed great challenges to the long-lasting growth of Liaoning Province. In this study, the driving force of land expansion was detected using the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in Liaoning Province, and the land situation in 2030 was predicted under natural development, ecological protection, and economic development scenarios. We then further coupled the PLUS model with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to explore the spatial autocorrelation and synergistic relationship between carbon storage and habitat quality. The results indicated the following: (1) The total accuracy of the simulation in 2020 using the PLUS model reached 94.16%, and the Kappa coefficient reached 0.9089; therefore, the simulation result was highly reliable. (2) The overall spatial pattern of both carbon storage and habitat quality decreased from the northwest and southeast to the middle, and habitat quality had an impact on carbon storage to a certain extent, with a positive spatial correlation. (3) The ecological protection (EP) scenario was the only development prospect with increasing total carbon storage, which could increase carbon sequestration by approximately 7.83 × 106 Mg/C, and development prospects with optimal habitat quality. (4) Weak trade-off and weak synergy dominated in the 2030 natural development (ND) scenario; most regions showed weak synergy in the ecological protection scenario, spatial heterogeneity became more pronounced in the economic development (ED) scenario, and a strong trade-off and strong synergy emerged in individual regions. The results of the study have a positive feedback effect on establishing an ecological security barrier in Liaoning Province and furthering long-lasting low-carbon urban development.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Green Space Landscape Pattern in Harbin City Based on FLUS Model.

In this study, the change in green space in different scenarios and the index characteristics of landscape patterns were analyzed and were conducive to providing the decision basis for future green space planning in Harbin, a city in Northeast China. The FLUS model was used to predict the layout of green space, and the prediction results were analyzed and evaluated using the landscape index method. Combined with the MOP model and LINGO12.0, the objective function of economic benefit and ecological benefit was established to maximize the comprehensive benefit. As revealed by the outcome, from 2010 to 2020, the fragmentation degree of cultivated land, forest, and grassland decreased, and the overall landscape level tended to be diversified and uniform. In the status quo scenario, the cultivated land and the forest land were increased, whereas the water area and the wetland changed little, and its overall benefit was the lowest. The forest was increased by 137.46 km² in the ecological protection scenario, the largest among the three scenarios, and the overall water quality improved. In the economic development scenario, the cultivated land tended to expand rapidly, the connectivity was increased, and the area of forest was decreased by 69.19 km², and its comprehensive benefit is lower than that under the scenario of ecological protection. The sustainable development scenario achieved the most significant economic and ecological benefits, with a total income of CNY 435,860.88 million. Therefore, the future green space pattern should limit the expansion of cultivated land, maintain the spatial pattern of woodland and wetland, and enhance the protection of water area. In this study, Harbin green space was studied from different scenario perspectives, combined with landscape pattern index and multi-objective planning, which is of great significance for Harbin green space planning decisions in the future and improving comprehensive benefits.

Spatial differentiation and scenario simulation of cultivated land in mountainous areas of Western Hubei, China: a PLUS model.

A useful spatial pattern of cultivated land utilization in mountainous areas is a basic prerequisite for promoting efficient utilization of cultivated land and has a practical use for ensuring regional food security and rural revitalization. In this paper, we use Enshi and Lichuan cities as case studies and the PLUS model to analyze the spatial differentiation characteristics of cultivated land from 2000 to 2020. In addition, we simulated the spatial pattern of cultivated land in 2030 concerning the ecological priority scenario (scenario I) and the ecological and economic coordination scenario (scenario II). The results show that (1) the degree of cultivated land fragmentation from 2000 to 2020 is characterized as "high in the east and low in the west," and the spatial aggregation of cultivated land decreases slightly over time and that there is a risk of increasing fragmentation of cultivated land in the future. (2) The complexity of cultivated land shape shows a fluctuating decrease between 2000 and 2030, and an overall trend of landscape homogenization. (3) The spatial distribution of cultivated land is concentrated in the peak cluster depressions and river valleys. The imbalance in the distribution of cultivated land has increased in the past two decades which should be curbed in the future. (4) In 2030, concerning the ecological priority development scenario, cultivated land use tends to evolve in the direction of balanced distribution and a relatively complex shape. (5) Concerning the coordinated ecological and economic development scenario, the spatial aggregation of cultivated land is higher and the patches of cultivated land are more regular, but the distribution imbalance is more serious. The results can provide scientific references for sustainable and effective use of cultivated land in mountainous areas.

Research on the Change in Prediction of Water Production in Urban Agglomerations on the Northern Slopes of the Tianshan Mountains Based on the InVEST–PLUS Model

Assessing how land use change will affect water production ecosystem services is essential to developing sound water resource management and ecosystem conservation. The results of a coordination analysis of land-use intensity and water yield based on future land-use simulation projections are useful for future land-use planning. To effectively assess water production rates, the PLUS and InVEST models were used to dynamically assess the changes in water production occurring in the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2030 under different scenarios of land-use change. The results show that the water-production rates in the study area from 2000 to 2020 were 517.26 × 106 m3, 582.28 × 106 m3, and 456 × 106 m3, showing an increasing and then decreasing trend, with the water production function decreasing from the foothills of the Tianshan Mountains to the north and south, with values of 509.10 × 106 m33, 510.90 × 106 m3, and 502.28 × 106 m3 being presented for the three scenarios in 2030. The rapid economic development scenario presents the lowest water yield values and the ecological conservation development scenario presents the highest water yield values. Changes in water production rates are closely related to changes in land use, which can be verified further by an analysis of the coordination between land- use intensity and water production. For this study area, the ecological conservation development scenario may be more in line with the future urban development pattern, and the results of the present study can provide some scientific references for land-use planning.

Exploring the response of ecosystem service value to land use changes under multiple scenarios coupling a mixed-cell cellular automata model and system dynamics model in Xi'an, China

Land use is a crucial factor affecting ecosystem service value (ESV), and forecasting future land use changes and ESV response can guide urban planning and sustainable development decisions. However, the traditional Cellular Automata (CA) model supposes that each cell has only one land use type at each time step, neglects the mixed structure and proportional distribution of land use units, does not take into account its quantitative continuous dynamic change, and lacks the exploration of land use quantity structure and spatial pattern optimization. This study employed a novel mixed-cell cellular automata (MCCA) approach, coupled with the system dynamics (SD) model to predict the spatiotemporal pattern of land use under the natural increase scenario (NIS), economic development scenario (EDS) and ecological protection scenario (EPS) in Xi’an, China, in 2030. The equivalent coefficient method was utilized to investigate the heterogeneity distribution and sensitivity of ESV. The results demonstrated that SD-MCCA exhibited remarkable prediction accuracy and robustness. The main changes in land use in 2000–2015 were due to urban expansion, the conversion of arable land into construction land, and the conversion between grassland and arable land. The total ESV increased from 19554.36×106 CNY in 2000 to 19618.39×106 CNY under the EPS in 2030, and the contribution of climate regulation and hydrological regulation to ESV was the highest. Spatial heterogeneity of ESV revealed a certain regularity, and the high value region was chiefly concentrated in woodland and grassland with favorable ecological conditions. Land use variations under NIS and EPS improved ESV, while the ESV had a negative response to land use transformations under the EDS. This research provides a new way to identify the relationship between future land utilization scenarios and ESV, which is of great significance for the management of land resources and formulation of ecological compensation standards.